巴西Poder360网站8月18日消息，巴西央行在最新发布的《焦点公报》（Focus）中，将2025年巴通 胀率预期从5.05%下调至4.95%，将2026年通胀率预期从4.41%下调至4.4%。报告显示，市场对2025年巴 GDP增长预测维持在2.21%，对2026年GDP增长预测维持在1.87%。根据报告，市场预测2025年巴基准 利率维持在15%，2026年维持在12.5%。与上周公布的数据相比，2025年底汇率预测保持不变，为1美元 兑5.6雷亚尔，2026年底汇率预测则维持在1美元兑5.7雷亚尔。 （原标题：巴西央行预测2025年巴通胀率为4.95%） ...

8月20日，以色列央行宣布将基准利率维持在4.5%不变，符合预期。 以色列央行表示，地缘政治的高度不确定性持续存在。过去12个月通胀率有所下降，7月份通胀率为3.1%，略高于目标上限。预测显示，通胀将在未来几 个月回归目标区间。 【导读】以色列央行宣布将基准利率维持在4.5%不变 今年7月，以色列央行行长阿米尔·亚龙曾表示，希望明年降息三次，使利率降至3.75%，但不知道何时可以开始下调利率。 阿米尔·亚龙表示，较低的风险溢价可能会导致需求迅速扩张。过去一年里，通胀已有所缓和。谢克尔升值将有助于降低通货膨胀。 据彭博社报道，以色列央行此前曾表示，市场和技术投资面临不确定性，美国加征关税给以色列的经济带来风险。 阿米尔·亚龙在接受采访时表示，该国养老基金深度参与股市投资，且科技产业高度依赖美国风投基金注资，不确定性影响了这两个领域，并直接影响以 色列的经济。阿米尔·亚龙指出，以色列应该"尽快减少不确定性"。 （文章来源：中国基金报） 以色列央行委员会认为，存在多种通胀加速或偏离目标的风险，包括地缘政治发展及其对经济活动的影响、需求增长伴随供给限制以及全球贸易条件恶 化。 以色列央行称，根据政府决议，财政赤字上限 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Israel has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.5%, aligning with market expectations, amidst ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and a slight decrease in inflation rates over the past year [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The inflation rate in Israel for July was reported at 3.1%, which is slightly above the target upper limit, but forecasts suggest it will return to the target range in the coming months [3]. - The government has decided to raise the fiscal deficit ceiling to 5.2%, indicating potential challenges in managing economic stability [3]. Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - The central bank highlighted various risks that could accelerate inflation or deviate from targets, including geopolitical developments, demand growth coupled with supply constraints, and deteriorating global trade conditions [3]. - The ongoing geopolitical uncertainty is expected to impact economic activity, with potential scenarios leading to increased supply constraints and slower economic recovery [3]. Group 3: Future Monetary Policy - The Bank of Israel's Governor, Amir Yaron, expressed a desire to lower interest rates three times next year to reach 3.75%, although the timing for such reductions remains uncertain [4]. - A lower risk premium could lead to a rapid expansion in demand, and the appreciation of the shekel is anticipated to help reduce inflation [5]. Group 4: Investment Climate - The Israeli economy faces uncertainties due to market and technological investment conditions, exacerbated by U.S. tariffs, which pose risks to the economy [6]. - The reliance of Israel's technology sector on U.S. venture capital funding makes it particularly vulnerable to these uncertainties, affecting overall economic performance [6].

每经AI快讯，8月14日消息，挪威央行维持基准利率在4.25%不变，符合市场预期。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Madagascar (BFM) is adopting a cautious strategy by maintaining the bank's benchmark interest rate at 12% during the monetary policy committee meeting held on August 5 [1] Group 1 - The decision to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged reflects the bank's careful approach to monetary policy [1]

Group 1 - The National Bank of Romania maintained the benchmark interest rate at 6.50%, aligning with market expectations [1]

Group 1 - The median benchmark interest rate of the Russian Central Bank is expected to decrease from the current 18% to 16% by the end of 2025 [1] - The median inflation rate is projected to be 6.7% by the end of 2025, a slight decrease from the previous survey's estimate of 7.0% [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive time it has held rates steady [1] - The Fed's statement shifted from indicating steady economic expansion to acknowledging a slowdown in economic growth during the first half of the year [1] - There was a notable dissent in the Federal Open Market Committee, with two members voting against the decision to keep rates unchanged, advocating for a 25 basis point cut [1] Group 2 - The implementation of the "Build Back Better" tax and spending plan may increase the economic and debt costs of maintaining inflation targets, putting more pressure on the Fed's policy stance [2] - Fed Chair Powell tempered expectations for a rate cut in September, emphasizing the uncertainty surrounding tariffs and inflation, and stating that current rates are appropriate [3] - Concerns about the Fed's independence have arisen due to ongoing pressure from the White House, which could impact investor confidence in the U.S. economy and assets [3]

Summary of FOMC Statement Core Viewpoint - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a change, which aligns with market expectations [1] Interest Rate Decision - There was a notable division in the voting, with members Waller and Bowman advocating for a rate cut, marking the first time in over 30 years that two members voted against the majority [2] Inflation Outlook - The FOMC did not alter its inflation language, indicating that inflation remains somewhat elevated [3] Economic Outlook - Economic growth has slowed in the first half of the year, and uncertainty regarding the economic outlook remains high [4] Powell's Press Conference Insights - Current policy stance is considered favorable; no decisions have been made regarding the September meeting, and future decisions will rely on incoming data [5] - Core PCE inflation is projected to rise by 2.7% year-over-year in June, while overall PCE is expected to increase by 2.5%; most long-term inflation expectations align with the Fed's target [6] - The economy is viewed as being in a stable position, although indicators suggest a slowdown in growth; the large infrastructure bill is not seen as particularly stimulative [7] - The labor market remains balanced, but there are evident downside risks [8] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to be temporary, with 30% to 40% of core inflation attributed to tariffs; it is considered premature to assess the full impact of tariffs [9] - The dissenting members are expected to clarify their positions in the coming days, with both advocating for a rate cut [10] Market Reaction - Following the statement, market volatility was minimal; however, during Powell's remarks, gold prices dropped by $50, the dollar strengthened, and U.S. Treasury yields rebounded, with the 10-year yield reaching 4.38% and the 2-year yield approaching 4% [11] - U.S. stock markets faced downward pressure, and Bitcoin briefly fell below $116,000 per coin [12]

Group 1 - The Brazilian central bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 15% [1]