周三，三大指数下跌，科技股领跌，特斯拉从高位回落。 【美股】截至收盘，道指跌228.29点，跌幅为0.47%，报47885.97点；纳指跌418.14点，涨幅为1.81%， 报22693.32点；标普500指数跌78.83点，跌幅为1.16%，报6721.43点。特斯拉(TSLA.US)跌超4.6%，英 伟达(NVDA.US)涨3.8%，Circle(CRCL.US)跌超4.5%。甲骨文跌5.4%。 四名共和党议员加入民主党阵营，推动奥巴马医改法案投票。周三，四名温和派共和党众议员签署了民 主党提出的请愿书，以推动对延长《平价医疗法案》（奥巴马医改）补贴的投票。这些补贴是今年早些 时候导致政府关门的党派分歧的核心问题。这些补贴将于年底到期，届时将导致约2200万美国公民的保 险费大幅上涨。除了214名民主党议员外，布莱恩·菲茨帕特里克、迈克·劳勒、罗布·布雷斯纳汉和瑞安· 麦肯齐这四位共和党众议员也加入了请愿行列。"唯一比不进行任何改革就直接延长三年奥巴马医改补 贴更糟糕的政策，就是完全取消补贴而不提供任何过渡措施。不幸的是，正是众议院领导层自己造成了 这种局面，"菲茨帕特里克评论道。 【欧股】德国DAX30 ...

北京时间12月13日早间消息，据报道，美国众议院共和党领导层于提交一项医保提案，该提案未解决医 保保费大幅上涨的问题。最早从明年1月起，数百万美国人将受到这一上涨影响。 该法案未延长《平价医疗法案》（又称"奥巴马医改"）的强化补贴。这项补贴于疫情期间出台，若国会 不采取行动，将于12月31日到期。这意味着约2400万美国人可能从明年1月起面临医保保费大幅上涨的 情况。 法案包含费用分摊减免条款，旨在为部分人群降低保费，但同时会减少整体补贴额度，并导致另一部分 人群保费上涨。该条款将于2027年1月生效。 若众议院规则委员会投票允许，议员可在下周的全院辩论中提出修正案，以延长补贴并解决2026年的补 贴缺口问题。众议院规则委员会定于周二召开会议，就此作出决定。 北京时间12月13日早间消息，据报道，美国众议院共和党领导层于提交一项医保提案，该提案未解决医 保保费大幅上涨的问题。最早从明年1月起，数百万美国人将受到这一上涨影响。 该法案未延长《平价医疗法案》（又称"奥巴马医改"）的强化补贴。这项补贴于疫情期间出台，若国会 不采取行动，将于12月31日到期。这意味着约2400万美国人可能从明年1月起面临医保保费大幅 ...

参议员们以 51 票赞成、48 票反对的结果，就推进一项共和党医疗保健计划进行表决 —— 该计划原本 拟扩大健康储蓄账户的覆盖范围，以此替代即将到期的税收抵免。民主党提出的 "将补贴延长三年" 的 计划，同样以 51 票赞成、48 票反对的结果表决。两项提案均远未达到突破关键程序性障碍所需的 60 票支持门槛。 这两轮投票基本遵循党派划线，但并非完全一致。肯塔基州共和党参议员兰德・保罗（Rand Paul）是 唯一反对共和党自身提案的共和党议员；与此同时，缅因州共和党参议员苏珊・科林斯（Susan Collins）、密苏里州共和党参议员乔希・霍利（Josh Hawley）、阿拉斯加州共和党参议员莉萨・穆尔 科斯基（Lisa Murkowski）及丹・沙利文（Dan Sullivan）投票支持了民主党的医疗保健计划。 美国参议院周四否决了两项针锋相对的医疗保健法案，这几乎意味着超过 2000 万美国人正在享受的奥 巴马医改（Obamacare）补贴将在年底到期失效。 "我希望今天之后，他们能觉得已经完成了'立场表态'这一流程，然后认真对待奥巴马医改框架下医疗 成本飙升的问题，" 图恩在投票前表示，"共和党已准备 ...

说到美国政治，近年来的局势越来越像一出充满戏剧性的肥皂剧。最近，联邦政府再次经历了长达四十 多天的停摆，结果，最终是特朗普笑到了最后。实际上，这并不是美国第一次发生政府停摆的情况，但 此次背后的政治博弈尤为激烈：一边是特朗普强硬应对，另一边则是民主党节节败退。那么，这场政治 斗争究竟谁胜谁负呢？我们一起来好好分析一下。 这次美国政府的停摆，表面上是因为预算未达成一致，但真正的核心问题，仍然绕不开一个老生常谈的 话题——奥巴马医改。事情的起因是这样的：民主党希望恢复奥巴马医改中的一些补贴政策，而共和党 方面，尤其是特朗普，完全不同意。之所以如此，也不难理解。特朗普在担任总统的第一任期时，已经 对奥巴马医改进行了大幅度削减。而如今，民主党又试图重启这一政策，特朗普当然会强烈反对。 事实上，普通美国民众对奥巴马医改的看法也并不完全积极。表面上，奥巴马医改的目标是为那些买不 起保险的人提供保障，听起来非常有利民众。但问题是，这项政策的资金从哪里来呢？依赖政府补贴， 最终买单的还是普通纳税人。而且，实质上，这种劫富济贫的政策，若没有强有力的执行和持续的财政 支持，往往只是空谈。 举个例子，纽约近年来实施了一些激进的福利 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. government shutdown has reached a historic record of 41 days, with a temporary funding bill passed in the Senate, potentially ending the shutdown soon [1] - The Senate approved the Continuing Appropriations and Extensions Act with a vote of 60 to 40, but it still requires approval from the Republican-controlled House of Representatives [1] - The core issue of the shutdown revolves around extending tax credits for the Affordable Care Act, affecting 24 million Americans who may face increased insurance premiums [1] Group 2 - The agreement indicates that Democrats find it challenging to leverage their limited influence against Trump's agenda in a Republican-controlled Washington [2] - Polls show that during the shutdown, the public primarily blames Congress's deadlock on Republicans rather than Democrats, indicating a shift in political risk [2] - The reopening of federal departments may lead to significant backlogs and delays, particularly affecting 42 million low-income Americans in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) [2]

Core Points - President Trump supports a bipartisan agreement aimed at ending the government shutdown, increasing the likelihood of reopening the government soon [1] - The Senate is expected to vote on the spending bill, which will then go to the House for approval [1][3] - The agreement has faced backlash from some Democrats who feel it does not address key issues such as the extension of subsidies for the Affordable Care Act [2][4] Group 1: Government Reopening - Trump announced sufficient Democratic support to reopen the government, stating that the shutdown is a negative situation [1] - Senate Majority Leader John Thune anticipates that the President will sign the legislation once passed by Congress [1] - The Senate passed a procedural measure to advance a temporary funding bill with a vote of 60 to 40 [3] Group 2: Legislative Process - The House Speaker Mike Johnson will notify House members 36 hours in advance to return for voting once the Senate passes the bill [2] - The funding bill will provide full-year funding for certain departments while offering temporary funding until January 30 for others [3] - The bill includes provisions to backpay furloughed government employees and restore withheld federal funds to states and localities [3] Group 3: Political Reactions - Some Democrats have expressed strong opposition to the agreement, criticizing it for not including the extension of ACA subsidies [2][4] - California Governor Gavin Newsom and Illinois Governor JB Pritzker have publicly condemned the agreement, calling it disappointing and a "empty promise" [2] - The agreement has sparked a debate within the Democratic Party, with some members feeling it does not meet their objectives [4][5]

Core Points - The U.S. federal government shutdown has lasted for 40 days, but there may be a turning point as Senate Majority Leader John Thune reveals a limited spending proposal is taking shape [1] - Some Senate Democrats are likely to support the proposal if certain details, such as protections for government workers, are confirmed [3] - The ongoing shutdown is causing significant impacts, with warnings from officials about potential delays in air travel during the Thanksgiving period [5] - The economic cost of the shutdown is substantial, with an estimated loss of approximately $15 billion per week and a projected reduction of about 1.5 percentage points in the quarterly annualized GDP growth rate by mid-November [6] Group 1 - A limited spending proposal is being developed to address the government shutdown, with a procedural vote planned for this Sunday [1] - At least 10 Senate Democrats are expected to support a procedural motion to advance a combined spending bill and short-term funding arrangement [3] - The shutdown's impact is growing, with warnings from the Transportation Secretary about potential delays in air travel during the holiday season [5] Group 2 - The ongoing shutdown is causing significant economic losses, estimated at $15 billion per week, and is expected to reduce GDP growth by 1.5 percentage points [6] - There are ongoing discussions between parties, with Democrats proposing to extend subsidies for low-income Americans in exchange for reopening the government [6] - The political landscape is tense, with President Trump urging lawmakers to remain in Washington until a spending deal is reached [6]

Core Points - The U.S. Senate passed a procedural motion to end the longest government shutdown in history with a vote of 60 to 40, paving the way for a temporary funding agreement [1] - The agreement includes full funding for the Department of Agriculture, the Department of Veterans Affairs, and Congress until the end of the fiscal year, while other federal agencies will receive funding to operate until January 30, 2026 [1] - The agreement aims to restore pay for furloughed federal employees and resume federal funding for state and local governments [1] Group 1 - The Senate requires unanimous consent from all members to expedite the process, and any opposition could delay the vote by several days [1] - House Speaker Mike Johnson has informed members to prepare for a vote within 36 hours [1] - President Trump expressed optimism about nearing an end to the shutdown [1] Group 2 - Some Democratic senators supported the agreement due to provisions preventing federal layoffs until January 30 [2] - The House's voting outcome remains uncertain, as Democratic leaders oppose any agreement lacking an extension of the Affordable Care Act subsidies [2][3] - The current agreement does not meet the core demands of Democratic leaders, who seek to extend expiring ACA subsidies and repeal cuts to Medicaid [3] Group 3 - The ongoing government shutdown has lasted for 40 days, marking a record in U.S. history, with previous attempts to leverage shutdowns for policy gains failing [3][4] - The Democratic Party has rejected a no-strings-attached temporary spending bill that could have kept the government running until November 21 [4] - The White House has pressured Congress, threatening mass layoffs and withholding pay for over 600,000 furloughed federal workers [4] Group 4 - The likelihood of reaching an agreement on extending ACA subsidies before the December deadline remains unclear, with House Republicans opposing the extension [5] - The political standoff has resulted in an estimated economic loss of approximately $15 billion per week, with a projected 1.5 percentage point decline in GDP growth rate due to the shutdown [5] - The funding bill includes provisions favored by Democrats, such as rejecting cuts to international food aid and increasing security funding for Congress [5]

Group 1: Government Shutdown Impact - The U.S. government shutdown has reached 36 days, surpassing the previous record of 35 days set in 2018, indicating a prolonged political standoff [1] - The core issue of the shutdown revolves around healthcare subsidies related to the Affordable Care Act, with both parties entrenched in their positions, leading to a lack of progress in negotiations [3][4] - The shutdown has resulted in significant economic losses, with estimates suggesting a potential GDP growth reduction of 0.2 percentage points per month, translating to over $50 billion in economic damage if it continues until the end of November [10] Group 2: Effects on Employment and Welfare - Approximately 800,000 federal employees are affected, either on unpaid leave or working without pay, leading to increased reliance on charitable organizations for basic needs [7][9] - Food assistance programs for 42 million Americans have been disrupted, with a significant portion of beneficiaries facing delays in receiving aid, marking a historic first in the program's 60-year history [7][10] Group 3: Financial Market Repercussions - The shutdown has triggered liquidity concerns in global financial markets, with the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance exceeding $1 trillion, indicating a reduction in available cash flow in the market [12][14] - The SOFR rate has surged to 4.22%, reflecting increased borrowing costs among banks, while the usage of the Federal Reserve's emergency lending facilities has reached record levels, signaling a cash crunch in the banking sector [12][14] Group 4: Broader Economic Consequences - The shutdown has led to flight cancellations and disruptions in the transportation sector, with a warning that up to 20% of flights could be affected, impacting millions of travelers [9][10] - Local businesses, particularly in Washington D.C., have seen a significant drop in sales, with some reporting declines of 15% to 20%, and small business loan approvals have come to a halt, threatening their viability [10][12]

Core Points - The U.S. federal government shutdown has reached its 36th day, marking the longest shutdown in history, primarily due to partisan disagreements over key issues like healthcare subsidies [2][4] - The economic impact of the shutdown is becoming increasingly severe, with the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projecting a potential decline in the annualized GDP growth rate by 1 to 2 percentage points in Q4 [2][11] - Key pressure points driving negotiations include disruptions in air traffic, the suspension of food stamp benefits for 42 million people, and impending military pay issues [2][18] Economic Impact - The CBO warns that if the shutdown lasts six weeks, the GDP growth rate could drop by 1.5 percentage points, and if it extends to eight weeks, the decline could reach 2 percentage points [11] - The economic losses from the shutdown are projected to be permanent, with estimates of $11 billion in lost output after six weeks and $14 billion after eight weeks [11] - Financial markets are reacting negatively, with a significant drop in stock prices and a decrease in expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts due to the uncertainty created by the shutdown [17][15] Political Dynamics - The shutdown is a result of failed negotiations between Democrats and Republicans, with Democrats insisting on including healthcare subsidy extensions in any funding bill [6][10] - The Senate has seen 14 failed votes during the shutdown, highlighting the procedural challenges and the use of filibuster tactics by Democrats to leverage their demands [8][10] - Political analysts suggest that the pressure from the economic and social consequences of the shutdown may force both parties to reach a compromise soon [18][24] Potential Resolutions - Analysts predict that a compromise may involve a "clean" continuing resolution in exchange for future negotiations on healthcare subsidies, allowing both parties to save face [24][25] - The earliest potential date for the end of the shutdown is suggested to be November 16, as various pressures mount [21][23] - Observational signals for a nearing agreement include the reconvening of the House, positive developments in Senate negotiations, or a shift in President Trump's stance [25]