尿素产业日报 2026-01-12 企业收单明显好转，报价连续上涨，但因前期尿素企业库存已经有部分增加，去库幅度有限。随着近期尿 数据来源于第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 素价格上涨，下游追涨趋势或有所放缓，短期尿素企业去库幅度预计有限。UR2605合约短线预计在1750-1 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 800区间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日 ...

长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 2026-01-12 【产业服务总部 | 能化产业服务中心】 研 究 员：张 英 执业编号：F03105021 投资咨询号：Z0021335 尿素：产销偏稳 上有压力下有支撑 01 1 市场变化：价格：受尿素产销偏稳和化工板块反弹影响，尿素盘面价格周初延续提涨，周尾窄幅回落。1月9日尿素 2605合约收盘价1777元/吨，较上周上调28元/吨，涨幅1.6%，期间最高1794元/吨，最低1753元/吨。尿素现货河南 市场日均价1730元/吨，较上周上调40元/吨，涨幅2.37%。基差：尿素主力基差走强，1月9日河南市场主力基差-47 元/吨，周度基差运行区间（-64）— （-43）元/吨。价差：尿素09合约价格增幅较大，尿素5-9价差走弱，1月9日 5-9价差23元/吨，周度运行区间 20 — 38 元/吨。 2 基本面变化：供应端中国尿素开工负荷率84.74%，较上周提升1.46个百分点，其中气头企业开工负荷率51.57%，较 上周降低4.83个百分点，尿素日均产量19.59万吨。成本端无烟煤市场价格降后趋稳运行，截至1月8日，山西晋城 S0 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「 2026.01.09」 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链分析 「 周度要点小结」 3 行情回顾：本周国内尿素市场偏强上涨，截止本周四山东中小颗粒主流出厂涨至1720-1760元/吨， 较1月4日上涨55元/吨。尿素工厂在订单以及库存方面存有支撑，虽然下游进一步跟单需求放缓， 但短时行情以僵持窄幅调整为主，暂时波动空间有限。 行情展望：前期部分检修装置恢复，带动国内尿素产量增加，下周暂无企业装置计划停车，2家停 车企业装置可能恢复生产，考虑到短时的企业故障发生，预计产量增加的概率较大。近期农业需 求处于传统淡季，整体成交氛围不温不火，下游对高价货源存有抵触情绪，多采取随用随采策略。 工业领域维持刚需采购，复合肥企业开工率波动不大，关注天气及各地环保情况。国内尿素企业 库存波动较小，局部库存涨跌不一，近日尿素企业收单明显好转，报价连续上涨，但因前期尿素 企业库存已经有部分增加，去库幅度有限。随着近期尿素价格上涨，下游追涨趋势或有所放缓， 短期尿素企业去库幅度预计有限。 策略建议： UR2605合约短线预计在1750-1800区间波动。 「 期货市场情况」 尿素市场周报 研究员：林静宜 ...

尿素产业日报 2026-01-06 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1778 | 10 郑州尿素5-9价差(日,元/吨) | 33 | -5 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 230560 | 11964 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -30527 | 1171 | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 12619 | 243 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1730 | 10 河南(日 ...

大宗商品研究 能源化工研发报告 尿素日报 2026 年 1 月 5 日 尿素日报 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：尿素期货坚挺上涨，最终报收 1768（+25/+1.43%）。 2、现货市场：出厂价稳中上涨，收单火爆，河南出厂报 1640-1660 元/吨，山东小 颗粒出厂报 1660-1700 元/吨，河北小颗粒出厂 1690-1720 元/吨，山西中小颗粒出厂报 1590-1610 元/吨，安徽小颗粒出厂报 1680-1690 元/吨，内蒙出厂报 1545-1620 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 【尿素】1 月 5 日，尿素行业日产 19.86 万吨，较上一工作日增加 0.14 万吨；较去 年同期增加 2.52 万吨；今日开工率 82.70%，较去年同期 78.05%回升 2.52%。隆众统计。 【逻辑分析】 研究员：张孟超 从业资格号：F3068848 投资咨询资格证号： Z0017786 联系方式： zhangmengchao_qh@ chinastock.com.cn 主流地区出厂价弱势下跌，市场情绪火爆，成交旺盛，厂家多数停售，个别高价区 成交一般。山东地区主流出厂报价弱稳，市场情绪表现降温，工业复合肥开工 ...

尿素2026年1月报： 预期支撑 近弱远强 产业服务总部 | 能化产业服务中心 张英 执业编号：F03105021 投资咨询号：Z0021335 2026-01-05 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 目 录 01 尿素期现价格回顾 05 复合肥及工业需求分析 02 尿素产能产量分析 06 尿素及肥料出口分析 03 尿素成本利润分析 07 尿素库存水平分析 04 尿素需求分析 08 尿素后市行情展望 01 尿素期现价格回顾 资料来源：同花顺，卓创资讯，长江期货能化产业服务中心 02 尿素产能产量分析 p 12月尿素价格先弱后强，期货价格走弱带动主力基差走强，后期货价格向上修复，主力基差走弱。供应端开工负荷微 降，整体现货供应环比减少。复合肥、淡储有序跟进采购，农业刚需零售补单。厂家出货尚可，库存持续去库带动价 格成交重心上移。 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2025/01 2025/02 2025/03 2025 ...

风险点 • 出口政策调整、煤炭价格大幅波动、海外能源价格大幅波动、海外地缘政治风险； Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 国泰君安期货·能源化工 尿素周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2026年01月04日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 资料来源：钢联，隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 本周尿素观点：短期震荡，中期中枢上移 • 本周(20251225-1231)，中国尿素生产企业产能利用率80.29%，较上期涨1.52%，趋势小幅上涨。周期内新增4家企业装置停车，6家停车企业（装置）恢复生产，延续 上周期的装置变化，产能利用率由降转升。中国尿素生产企业煤制产能利用率：89.59%，较上期涨2.53%；中国尿素生产企业气制产能利用率：48.40%，较上期跌 1.97%。下周，中国尿素生产企业周产能利用率预计在81-82%附近，较本期小幅提升。下个周期预计3家企业装置计划停车，5家停车企业装置可能恢复生产，考虑到 企业的短时故障， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The probability of an increase in urea production is relatively high in the short - term, considering potential device recoveries and possible short - term enterprise malfunctions. The current agricultural season is in a period of low demand, but there may be a slight increase in local agricultural reserves in Jiangsu and Anhui. Commercial reserve demand may slow down due to price constraints. The short - term enterprise device operating rate may fluctuate slightly, and attention should be paid to weather and local environmental protection conditions. Recently, driven by market sentiment, urea factory orders have been progressing steadily, and factory shipments have improved. Domestic urea enterprise inventories have continued to decline. With the end of environmental protection warnings, urea production is expected to rebound, and inventories may increase. The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1730 - 1760 yuan/ton in the short term [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1743 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 8 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread is 38 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 4 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 204,038 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 9,235 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 28,939 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 3,868 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts are 12,381 sheets, with a week - on - week increase of 1,631 sheets [2]. Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the prices in Hebei, Shandong are 1730 yuan/ton and 1710 yuan/ton respectively, with no change; the prices in Henan, Jiangsu, and Anhui are 1700 yuan/ton, 1710 yuan/ton, and 1710 yuan/ton respectively, with a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is - 33 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 8 yuan/ton. The FOB prices in the Baltic and China's main ports are 350 US dollars/ton and 390 US dollars/ton respectively, with no change [2]. Industry Situation - Port inventory is 17.7 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 3.9 million tons; enterprise inventory is 106.89 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 11.08 million tons. The urea enterprise operating rate is 78.77%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.92%; the daily urea output is 190,500 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 4,600 tons. The urea export volume is 60 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 60 million tons; the monthly urea output is 6,000,330 tons, with an increase of 129,060 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 37.75%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.62%; the melamine operating rate is 58.07%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.48%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 143 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 3 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally purchased urea is - 108 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 72 yuan/ton. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 438.25 million tons, with an increase of 75.38 million tons; the weekly output of melamine is 30,200 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 300 tons [2]. Industry News - As of December 24, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 106.89 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11.08 million tons, or 9.39%. As of December 25, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 17.7 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.9 million tons, or 28.26%. As of December 25, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1.3334 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 32.5 million tons, or 2.38%, and the capacity utilization rate was 78.77%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.92% [2]. Suggestion - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [2].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Urea Morning Report [2] - Report Date: December 24, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Zhu Tianyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 3: Core Views - The current daily production and operating rate of urea are stable, and the comprehensive inventory has declined with an obvious de - stocking pattern. The overall supply of domestic urea still exceeds demand. The UR contract is expected to fluctuate today [4]. - The main factors affecting the market are international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand. The main risk is the change in export policies [5]. Group 4: Urea Fundamental Analysis Fundamental Factors - The supply side has stable daily production and operating rate, and the comprehensive inventory has decreased. The demand side, including agricultural and industrial demand, is mainly based on on - demand procurement. The operating rates of compound fertilizer and melamine are stable. The export demand has declined in the short term, but the Indian tender news in the middle of the week boosted the market [4]. Base Difference - The basis of the UR2605 contract is -41, and the premium - discount ratio is -2.4%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. Inventory - The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.318 million tons (-40,000 tons), showing a bearish sign [4]. Futures Market - The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, indicating a bullish signal [4]. Main Position - The net position of the main UR contract is short, and the short position has increased, showing a bearish signal [4]. Group 5: Urea Market Data Spot Market - The price of the spot delivery product is 1,680 (-10), Shandong spot is 1,720 (-10), Henan spot is 1,680 (0), and FOB China is 2,744 [6]. Futures Market - The 05 contract price is 1,721 (23), UR01 is 1,659 (10), and UR09 is 1,705 (23). The basis of the 05 contract is -41 (-33) [6]. Inventory Data - The warehouse receipt is 10,532 (-349), UR comprehensive inventory is 1.318 million tons, UR factory inventory is 1.18 million tons, and UR port inventory is 0.138 million tons [6]. Group 6: Urea Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Import Volume | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | End - of - Period Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 22.455 billion | - | 19.5681 billion | 4.4838 billion | 18.6% | 24.0519 billion | 0.2366 billion | 24.0519 billion | - | | 2019 | - | 24.455 billion | 8.9% | 22.4 billion | 4.8794 billion | 17.9% | 27.2794 billion | 0.3786 billion | 27.1374 billion | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 28.255 billion | 15.5% | 25.8098 billion | 6.1912 billion | 19.3% | 32.001 billion | 0.3783 billion | 32.0013 billion | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 31.485 billion | 11.4% | 29.2799 billion | 3.5241 billion | 10.7% | 32.804 billion | 0.3572 billion | 32.8251 billion | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 34.135 billion | 8.4% | 29.6546 billion | 3.3537 billion | 10.2% | 33.0083 billion | 0.4462 billion | 32.9193 billion | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 38.935 billion | 14.1% | 31.9359 billion | 2.9313 billion | 8.4% | 34.8672 billion | 0.4465 billion | 34.8669 billion | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 44.185 billion | 13.5% | 34.25 billion | 3.6 billion | 9.5% | 37.85 billion | 0.514 billion | 37.7825 billion | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 49.06 billion | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [9]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Urea Daily Report on December 23, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Energy and Chemical Research Report [2] Group 2: Market Review - Futures Market: Urea futures fluctuated higher, closing at 1721 (+21/+1.24%) [3] - Spot Market: Factory prices remained stable with general trading. Prices in different regions were: Henan 1620 - 1650 yuan/ton, Shandong small particles 1680 - 1690 yuan/ton, Hebei small particles 1700 - 1720 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small particles 1590 - 1600 yuan/ton, Anhui small particles 1650 - 1660 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 1540 - 1590 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Important Information - On December 23, the daily production of the urea industry was 18.98 tons, a decrease of 0.25 tons from the previous working day and an increase of 1.38 tons from the same period last year. The operating rate was 78.49%, a 0.62% increase from 77.87% in the same period last year [4] Group 4: Logic Analysis - Market Conditions: Mainstream factory prices were stable, market sentiment cooled, and trading weakened. Different regions had different situations. Shandong's prices were weakly stable, Henan's prices followed the decline, and the delivery area's prices were firm [5] - Supply: Domestic gas - fired plants began maintenance, and the daily output dropped to around 190,000 tons but remained high. India tendered again for a total of 150 tons with a February 2nd shipping date, but the impact was limited due to no new quotas in China [5] - Demand: The operating rate of compound fertilizer in the Central and Northeast regions was stable. In Henan, environmental protection led to large - scale shutdowns until the end of the month, and overall demand for compound fertilizer slowed. The progress of off - season storage enterprises reached over 70%, and future procurement would slow down [5] - Outlook: In the short term, with the impact of the Indian tender fading and limited export quotas, the downstream resisted high prices, and the trading was weak. In the medium term, the supply - demand fundamentals were still relatively loose, and after price increases in some regions, downstream acceptance decreased. The market rumor of export news improved trading in some low - price areas, but overall, a short - selling strategy was recommended [5] Group 5: Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short 05 contract [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Wait and see [9]