响，以东北、华北为主要区域企业出货加快，尿素企业库存继续下降，考虑到储备需求推进以及部分出口 发运预期，短期尿素库存仍有小幅去库趋势。UR2601合约短线预计在1650-1690区间波动。 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 免责声明 | | | 尿素产业日报 2025-11-27 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1668 | 14 郑州尿素1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -59 | 5 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 230913 | 1578 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -27809 | -369 | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 7181 | -209 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1650 | 0 河南(日,元/吨) | 1630 | -10 0 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1620 | -10 山东(日 ...

尿素产业日报 2025-11-18 ，但随着尿素价格上涨后，工厂新单成交放缓，部分企业库存有所回升，由于部分尿素企业待发较大，积 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1662 | 0 郑州尿素1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -74 | 1 6550 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 250907 | -3842 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -34881 | | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 7183 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1610 | -20 河南(日,元/吨) | 1600 | -10 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1580 | -10 山东(日,元/吨) | 1610 | 20 | | | 安徽(日,元/吨) | 1590 | 0 郑州尿素主力合约基差(日,元/吨) ...

瑞达期货研究院 「 2025.11.14」 尿素市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链分析 「 周度要点小结」 3 行情回顾：本周国内尿素市场先强后弱，成交重心小幅上行。截止本周四山东中小颗粒主流出厂 至1550-1630元/吨，均价环比上涨30元/吨。现货交投氛围降温，个别区域报价出现小幅下行。 行情展望：前期检修装置恢复带动国内尿素产量提升，本周新增1家企业装置停车，3家停车装置 恢复生产，同时延续上周期的装置变化，产量继续增加。下周预计1家企业装置计划停车，2-4家 停车企业装置可能恢复生产，考虑到短时的企业故障发生，产量增加的概率较大。农业需求处于 淡季，零星补仓为主；受环保因素影响，复合肥开工小幅下降，下周部分企业计划重启，但环保 压力不减，预计运行负荷提升或较缓慢。随着新一批配额的落地，出口需求逐渐增量。本周尿素 企业库存下降，主要受益于新的出口政策落地，提振国内交投氛围，尿素企业出货好转，但随着 尿素价格上涨后，工厂新单成交放缓，部 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Urea Daily Report (November 12, 2025) [2] - Report Type: Energy and Chemical Research Report [2] - Industry: Urea in the Energy and Chemical Sector [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The market sentiment for urea has cooled down after the impact of the new export quota news faded. The supply is currently abundant with increasing daily production, while the demand is weakening. The domestic urea market is expected to see a decline in prices in the short - term, although the fourth batch of export quotas may have a short - term positive impact on market sentiment [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - **Futures Market**: Urea futures rose and then fell, closing at 1655 (+7/+0.42%) [3]. - **Spot Market**: The ex - factory prices were weakly stable with general trading. The ex - factory prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1560 - 1570 yuan/ton, Shandong small - sized 1560 - 1600 yuan/ton, Hebei small - sized 1590 - 1600 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small - sized 1500 - 1560 yuan/ton, Anhui small - sized 1540 - 1550 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 1420 - 1490 yuan/ton [3]. Important Information - On November 12, the daily urea production in the industry was 19.81 tons, an increase of 0.14 tons from the previous working day and 1.59 tons from the same period last year. The current operating rate was 84.68%, 4.06% higher than 80.62% in the same period last year [4]. Logic Analysis - **Supply Side**: The maintenance devices are gradually returning, and the daily average production has increased to around 19.9 tons. The urea production enterprise inventory has increased slightly by 20,000 tons to around 1.58 million tons, remaining at a high level [5]. - **Demand Side**: The fourth batch of export quotas is expected to be around 600,000 tons. The international price's impact on the domestic market has increased again. However, the compound fertilizer production in central and northern China has basically ended, the grass - roots stocking is coming to an end, the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has declined, and the demand for raw materials is low [5]. - **Regional Market**: In Shandong, the mainstream ex - factory prices are expected to decline; in Henan, the ex - factory prices are expected to follow the downward trend; in the delivery area and its surrounding areas, the ex - factory prices are expected to remain stable for now [5]. Trading Strategy - **Single - sided**: Go short [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the domestic urea market fluctuated slightly within a range. As of Thursday, the mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized urea particles in Shandong was 1530 - 1590 yuan/ton, with the average price down 10 yuan/ton week - on - week. [6] - The resumption of previously overhauled plants has boosted domestic urea production. Next week, it is expected that 1 enterprise's plant will be shut down, and 3 - 5 shut - down enterprises' plants may resume production. Considering short - term enterprise malfunctions, the probability of increased production is high. [6] - Agricultural demand release has slowed down, and urea enterprises have appropriately reduced prices for transactions. The operating rate of compound fertilizers has recovered due to improved sales, and industrial demand has increased moderately. However, considering new orders, the operating rate of compound fertilizers is expected to decline steadily or slightly next week. [6] - This week, urea enterprise inventories increased slightly. Agricultural rigid demand is gradually decreasing, while industrial and reserve demand is increasing moderately. Some urea enterprises maintain a weak balance between production and sales, and in a few regions, shipments are blocked due to environmental protection warnings, leading to an increase in enterprise inventories. In the short term, urea enterprise inventories may continue to accumulate. [6] - The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate within the range of 1640 - 1700 in the short term. [6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Trend**: The domestic urea market fluctuated slightly within a range this week, with the average price in Shandong down 10 yuan/ton week - on - week. [6] - **Supply**: Production is likely to increase next week due to the resumption of previously shut - down plants and considering potential malfunctions. [6] - **Demand**: Agricultural demand is weakening, while industrial demand from compound fertilizers has increased moderately but may decline next week. [6] - **Inventory**: Enterprise inventories increased slightly this week and may continue to accumulate in the short term. [6] - **Strategy**: The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1640 - 1700 in the short term. [6] 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea futures rose by 2.58% this week [9]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of November 7, the UR 1 - 5 spread was - 67 [13]. - **Position Analysis**: No specific information on position analysis was summarized from the text. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of November 7, there were 4585 warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou urea, an increase of 4585 from last week [19]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Domestic Spot Price**: As of November 6, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1580 yuan/ton (down 20), and in Jiangsu was 1570 yuan/ton (down 20) [25]. - **Foreign Spot Price**: As of November 6, the FOB China price of urea was 377.5 dollars/ton, up 2.5 dollars/ton from last week [29]. - **Basis**: As of November 6, the urea basis was - 64 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton from last week [33]. 3.4 Upstream Market - **Coal Price**: As of November 5, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5500 kcal was 695 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from last week [36]. - **Natural Gas Price**: As of November 6, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 4.41 dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.35 dollars/million British thermal units from last week [36]. 3.5 Industry Situation - **Capacity Utilization and Production**: As of November 6, China's urea production was 135.45 tons, up 3.92 tons (2.98% week - on - week), and the capacity utilization rate was 82.71%, up 2.39% from the previous period [39]. - **Inventory**: As of November 6, the port sample inventory was 7.9 tons, down 3.1 tons (28.18% week - on - week); as of November 5, the total enterprise inventory was 157.81 tons, up 2.38 tons (1.53% week - on - week) [43]. - **Export**: In September 2025, urea exports were 137.12 tons, up 72.12% month - on - month, and the average export price was 424.93 dollars/ton, up 93.01% month - on - month [46]. 3.6 Downstream Market - **Compound Fertilizer**: As of November 6, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 31.04%, stable week - on - week, and is expected to decline steadily or slightly next week [49]. - **Melamine**: As of November 6, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 53.20%, up 3.22 percentage points from last week [49].

Report Overview - Report Title: Urea Morning Report - Report Date: November 6, 2025 - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The current daily production and operating rate of urea are falling from high levels, and the comprehensive inventory has slightly decreased. Agricultural demand has rebounded due to weather influence, while industrial demand is weak. The export volume has increased due to the large price difference between domestic and international markets, and the export expectation is gradually being realized. However, the domestic urea market still has an overall oversupply situation. It is expected that the UR contract will fluctuate today [4]. - The positive factors include strong international prices and the rebound of agricultural demand, while the negative factor is the domestic oversupply. The main logic lies in international prices and the marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rate are falling from high levels, and comprehensive inventory has slightly decreased. Agricultural demand has rebounded due to weather influence, while industrial demand is weak. The export volume has increased due to the large price difference between domestic and international markets, and the export expectation is gradually being realized. The domestic urea market still has an overall oversupply situation. The spot price of the delivery product is 1570 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is -63, and the premium/discount ratio is -4.0%, which is bearish [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.664 million tons (-176,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is neutral [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The industrial demand is weak, the agricultural demand is rebounding, the international urea price is strong, and the export volume has increased. However, the domestic oversupply situation is still obvious. It is expected that the UR contract will fluctuate today [4]. Spot and Futures Market | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | **Spot Market** | The spot price of the delivery product is 1570, with no change; the Shandong spot price is 1580 (+10); the Henan spot price is 1570, with no change; the FOB China price is 2691 [6]. | | **Futures Market** | The price of the 01 contract is 1633 (+3), the basis is -63 (-3); the price of the UR05 contract is 1715 (+5); the price of the UR09 contract is 1739 (-1) [6]. | | **Inventory** | The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.664 million tons (-176,000 tons), the UR manufacturer inventory is 1.554 million tons, and the UR port inventory is 110,000 tons [6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Import Volume | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 22.455 billion | - | 19.5681 billion | 4.4838 billion | 18.6% | 24.0519 billion | 236.6 million | 24.0519 billion | - | | 2019 | - | 24.455 billion | 8.9% | 22.4 billion | 4.8794 billion | 17.9% | 27.2794 billion | 378.6 million | 27.1374 billion | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 28.255 billion | 15.5% | 25.8098 billion | 6.1912 billion | 19.3% | 32.001 billion | 378.3 million | 32.0013 billion | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 31.485 billion | 11.4% | 29.2799 billion | 3.5241 billion | 10.7% | 32.804 billion | 357.2 million | 32.8251 billion | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 34.135 billion | 8.4% | 29.6546 billion | 3.3537 billion | 10.2% | 33.0083 billion | 446.2 million | 32.9193 billion | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 38.935 billion | 14.1% | 31.9359 billion | 2.9313 billion | 8.4% | 34.8672 billion | 446.5 million | 34.8669 billion | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 44.185 billion | 13.5% | 34.25 billion | 3.6 billion | 9.5% | 37.85 billion | 514 million | 37.7825 billion | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 49.06 billion | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1600 - 1650 in the short - term [6] - The domestic urea market rose first and then fell this week. The mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized particles in Shandong increased to 1540 - 1600 yuan/ton, with the average price up 40 yuan/ton from the previous week [7] - The recovery of previously overhauled plants has increased domestic urea production. There are no planned plant shutdowns next week, and 5 - 6 shut - down plants may resume production, so the probability of increased production is high [7] - Agricultural demand continues to be released, and some reserve demand may follow up. Industrial demand, especially in the compound fertilizer sector, has led to an increase in the utilization rate of domestic compound fertilizer production capacity. The autumn fertilizer orders are nearing completion, and the compound fertilizer operating rate is expected to adjust slightly [7] - The release of suppressed demand and the follow - up of reserve demand have increased new orders and shipments of urea plants. Urea enterprise inventories decreased this week and are expected to fluctuate little in the short term [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the 1600 - 1650 range in the short - term [6] - Market review: The domestic urea market rose first and then fell. The mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized particles in Shandong increased to 1540 - 1600 yuan/ton, with the average price up 40 yuan/ton week - on - week [7] - Market outlook: Production is likely to increase. Agricultural and industrial demand is being released, and enterprise inventories are expected to be stable in the short term [7] 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures market** - The price of the main Zhengzhou urea contract fluctuated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 1.04% [13] - As of October 31, the UR 1 - 5 spread was - 78 [15] - As of October 30, there were 0 Zhengzhou urea warehouse receipts, a decrease of 5407 from the previous week [23] - **Spot market** - As of October 30, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1600 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; in Jiangsu, it was 1590 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [29] - As of October 30, the FOB price of urea in China was 375 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous week [33] - As of October 30, the urea basis was - 27 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton from the previous week [37] 3.3. Industrial Chain Analysis - **Upstream** - As of October 29, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 685 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [40] - As of October 30, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 4.06 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.72 US dollars/million British thermal units from the previous week [40] - **Industry** - As of October 30, China's urea production was 131.53 tons, up 3.74 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 2.93%. The capacity utilization rate was 80.32%, up 2.29% from the previous period [43] - As of October 30, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 110,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 100,000 tons, a decline of 47.62%. As of October 29, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.5543 million tons, a decrease of 75,900 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 4.66% [46] - In September 2025, urea exports were 1.3712 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 72.12%. The average export price was 424.93 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 93.01% [49] - **Downstream** - As of October 30, the utilization rate of compound fertilizer production capacity was 31.04%, up 3.33 percentage points from the previous week. The utilization rate of melamine production capacity was 49.98% on average, up 1.68 percentage points from the previous week [52]

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Title: Urea Morning Report [2] - Report Date: October 28, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The current daily production and operating rate of urea have started to decline from the high level, and the comprehensive inventory has slightly decreased. Agricultural demand has rebounded due to weather influence, while industrial demand is significantly weak. The domestic urea market is still oversupplied, but the market is expected to warm up in the short term. It is predicted that the UR contract will show a volatile and slightly stronger trend today [4]. - Bullish factors include strong international prices, increasing exports, and short - term decline in daily production. Bearish factor is domestic oversupply [5]. Group 4: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Daily production and operating rate are falling from high levels, comprehensive inventory is down slightly. Agricultural demand rebounds, industrial demand is weak, export volume increases. Domestic market is oversupplied, but short - term market is expected to warm up. Spot price of delivery product is 1590 (+20), overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of UR2601 contract is - 50, with a premium/discount ratio of - 3.1%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: UR comprehensive inventory is 1.84 million tons (- 201,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a neutral signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The UR main contract rebounds on the disk. Industrial demand is weak, agricultural demand rebounds, international urea prices are strong, and export volume increases. The domestic market is still significantly oversupplied, and the price is expected to warm up in the short term, with a predicted volatile and slightly stronger trend today [4]. Spot and Futures Data | Category | Details | | ---- | ---- | | **Spot** | Spot delivery product price is 1590 (+20), Shandong spot price is 1610 (+40), Henan spot price is 1590 (unchanged), FOB China price is 2666 [6]. | | **Futures** | UR01 contract price is 1640 (- 2), UR05 contract price is 1713 (- 6), UR09 contract price is 1745 (- 3). The basis of UR01 is - 50 (+22) [6]. | | **Inventory** | Warehouse receipts are 5288 (- 119), UR comprehensive inventory is 1.84 million tons, UR manufacturer inventory is 1.63 million tons, UR port inventory is 210,000 tons [6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Import Volume | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2018 | - | 2245.5 | - | 1956.81 | 448.38 (18.6%) | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | - | | 2019 | - | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 (17.9%) | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 (19.3%) | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 (10.7%) | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 (10.2%) | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 (8.4%) | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 (9.5%) | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 4906 | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [9]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The domestic urea market remains oversupplied, but the short - term market is expected to warm up. The UR is predicted to show a volatile and slightly stronger trend today [4]. 3. Key Points by Section Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rates are starting to decline from high levels, and the comprehensive inventory has slightly decreased. Agricultural demand has rebounded due to weather, while industrial demand is significantly weak. The export volume has increased with a large but narrowing price difference between domestic and international markets. The overall domestic urea supply still exceeds demand, but the short - term market is expected to improve. The spot price of the delivery product is 1570 (+30), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is - 72, with a premium/discount ratio of - 4.6%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.84 million tons (- 201,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a neutral signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The UR main contract's price has rebounded. Industrial demand is weak, agricultural demand is rising, international urea prices are strong, and the export volume has increased. Although the domestic supply still significantly exceeds demand, the short - term price is expected to warm up, and the UR is expected to show a volatile and slightly stronger trend today [4]. - **Likely Positive Factors**: Strong international prices, increasing exports, and short - term decline in daily production [5]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Domestic supply exceeding demand [5]. - **Main Logic**: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Spot, Futures, and Inventory Data | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | **Spot** | The price of the spot delivery product is 1570, with a change of +20; Shandong spot price is 1570, with a change of +20; Henan spot price is 1570, with no change; FOB China price is 2742 [6]. | | **Futures** | The price of the 01 contract is 1642, with a change of +4; the basis is - 72, with a change of +16; UR05 price is 1719, with a change of +9; UR09 price is 1748, with a change of +8 [6]. | | **Inventory** | Warehouse receipts are 5407, with a change of - 77; UR comprehensive inventory is 1.84 million tons (- 221,000 tons); UR manufacturer inventory is 1.63 million tons (+15,000 tons); UR port inventory is 210,000 tons (- 236,000 tons) [6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Production | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 2245.5 | - | 1956.81 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | - | | 2019 | - | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 4906 | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1600 - 1660 in the short - term [7] - The domestic urea market fluctuated narrowly at a low level this week. The average price of mainstream small and medium - sized particles in Shandong dropped by 20 yuan/ton week - on - week [8] - Recently, new urea plants in China have stopped production, and the output has decreased slightly. Next week, the probability of output increase is high. Agricultural demand has increased moderately, and industrial demand is tepid. The inventory may still show an increasing trend [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1600 - 1660 in the short - term [7] - Market review: The domestic urea market fluctuated narrowly at a low level this week. The average price of mainstream small and medium - sized particles in Shandong dropped to 1500 - 1560 yuan/ton, with an average price down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week [8] - Market outlook: New urea plants have stopped production, and the output has decreased slightly. Next week, the probability of output increase is high. Agricultural demand has increased moderately, and industrial demand is tepid. Inventory may still increase [8] 3.2 Futures Market - Futures price: The price of the main urea contract in Zhengzhou closed up with a weekly increase of 2.5% [11] - Inter - period spread: As of October 24, the UR 1 - 5 spread was - 77 [14] - Position analysis: Not detailed in the provided content - Futures warehouse receipts: As of October 24, there were 5407 urea warehouse receipts in Zhengzhou, a decrease of 887 from last week [23] 3.3 Spot Market - Domestic spot price: As of October 23, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1550 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the mainstream price in Jiangsu was 1550 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [27] - Foreign spot price: As of October 23, the FOB price of urea in China was 360 US dollars/ton, with no change from last week [31] - Basis: As of October 23, the urea basis was - 88 yuan/ton, a decrease of 46 yuan/ton from last week [35] 3.4 Industry Chain - Upstream: As of October 22, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 685 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from last week. As of October 23, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.29 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.29 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [39] - Industry: As of October 23, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 127.79 tons, a decrease of 4.26 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 3.23%; the capacity utilization rate was 78.03%, a decrease of 2.61% from the previous period. As of October 23, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 21 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 23.6 tons, a decrease of 52.91%. As of October 22, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 163.02 tons, an increase of 1.48 tons from last week, a week - on - week increase of 0.92%. In September 2025, urea exports were 137.12 tons, a month - on - month increase of 72.12%; the average export price was 424.93 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 93.01% [42][45][48] - Downstream: As of October 23, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 27.71%, a week - on - week increase of 3.53 percentage points. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 48.30%, a decrease of 6.88 percentage points from last week [51]