尿素市场分析

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瑞达期货尿素市场周报-20251010
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 09:24
瑞达期货研究院 「 2025.10.10」 尿素市场周报 研究员:林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链分析 「 周度要点小结」 策略建议: UR2601合约短线预计在1580-1650区间波动。 3 行情回顾:节后国内尿素市场整体看空氛围加剧,主流区域工厂迫于销售压力不断下调报盘,部 分企业价格跌破1500元/吨,然低价对下游吸引力度有限。 行情展望:近期国内尿素供应水平波动不大,日产量维持20万吨附近波动,节后因宁夏、山西个 别企业启动装置检修,尿素日产略有下降,但短期日均产量依旧在19万吨以上水平。国内农业需 求较为零散,局部农业需求或有小幅提升,但整体暂无明显起色。工业需求较为平稳,其中复合 肥秋季肥生产进入后期,华北大部需求转淡,企业减负荷停车或进一步增多,预计复合肥产能利 用率维持小幅下降态势。印度RCF再次发布新一轮国际尿素进口招标,但由于我国出口窗口期即 将结束,且后期出口政策暂不明朗,因此此轮印标对国内尿素市场的影响仍需持续跟踪。刚需推 进依旧不 ...
尿素周报:秋季肥支撑有限,关注印标动态-20250929
Zhong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 11:22
【中原化工】 秋季肥支撑有限,关注印标动态 ——尿素周报2025.09.29 中原期货研究咨询部 作者:申文 执业证书编号:F03117458 投资咨询编号:Z0022654 shenwen_qh@ccnew.com 0371-58620081 01 周度观点汇总 3 1.1 尿素周度观点——秋季肥支撑有限,关注印标动态 品种 主要逻辑 策略建议 风险提示 尿素 1. 供应:日产显著回升; 2. 需求:秋季肥支撑有限,关注印标动态; 3. 库存:上游尿素企业延续累库状态; 4. 成本与利润:煤炭价格维持偏强运行,尿素利润环比下降; 5. 基差与价差:1-5价差小幅收窄,01基差变化有限。 6. 整体逻辑: 本周国内尿素现货市场价格弱势运行,九月下旬多家尿素企业检修装置存复产预期,尿素 日产预计将在九月下旬回升至高位水平。需求端,随着秋季肥生产进入尾声,复合肥企业开工 环比逐步下降,成品库存小幅去化,但同比仍处于偏高水平,下游需求支撑整体表现偏弱。短 期来看,供应压力回升及需求弱势影响下,尿素库存呈现持续累积状态,而印标及出口预期扰 动仍存,期价或延续震荡偏弱运行,后续需重点关注印标动态、宏观影响及出口变化情况 ...
瑞达期货尿素产业日报-20250929
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 09:51
订单将执行到本月底。上周尿素企业库存继续增加,临近国庆,各地尿素工厂陆续启动国庆收单,少数企 数据来源于第三方,观点仅供参考。市场有风险,投资需谨慎! 尿素产业日报 2025-09-29 趋势,目前尿素流向偏少,刚需尚未明显增加,短期预计仍呈现小幅增加。UR2601合约短线预计在1650-1 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1664 | -5 郑州尿素1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -51 | 0 78 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 281504 | -10529 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -43004 | | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 7211 | -30 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1650 | 0 河南(日,元/吨) | 1610 | 0 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1600 | -20 山东(日,元/吨) | 1600 | -10 | | ...
瑞达期货尿素产业日报-20250925
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 09:26
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The recent increase in domestic urea daily production is due to the resumption of some previously shut - down plants, and there are no planned plant shutdowns this week, with 2 - 5 shut - down plants expected to resume production. Considering the equipment changes in the current period, this week's production has increased significantly [2]. - The market support for urea is limited. Agricultural demand is scattered, with only a small increase in local areas. Industrial demand is stable, but the production of compound fertilizer's autumn fertilizer is in the later stage, and demand in most parts of North China is weakening, with more enterprises likely to reduce production or shut down, and the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers is expected to decline slightly [2]. - As the National Day holiday approaches, urea factories are starting to accept orders for the holiday. Leading factories in major production and sales areas have lowered their quotes to stimulate downstream purchasing. There is continued concentrated export through ports, and some urea enterprises' export orders will be fulfilled by the end of this month [2]. - This week, the inventory of urea enterprises continues to increase. Although there are differences in inventory changes among enterprises, the overall inventory is on the rise. Currently, there are few urea flow directions, and rigid demand has not increased significantly. In the short term, it is expected to show a slight increase. The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1650 - 1700 [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1674 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton from the previous period. The 1 - 5 spread of Zhengzhou urea is - 53 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton [2]. - The open interest of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 301,894 lots, an increase of 1,736 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Zhengzhou urea is - 46,677 lots, a decrease of 3,648 lots [2]. - The number of exchange warehouse receipts for Zhengzhou urea is 7,535, unchanged from the previous period [2]. Spot Market - The spot prices in Hebei, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui are 1650 yuan/ton, 1620 yuan/ton, 1610 yuan/ton, and 1620 yuan/ton respectively, with no change. The price in Henan is 1610 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is - 64 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton [2]. - The FOB price in the Baltic Sea is 387.5 US dollars/ton, and the FOB price at the main Chinese port is 417.5 US dollars/ton, both unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The port inventory is 51.6 tons, a decrease of 3.34 tons from the previous week. The enterprise inventory is 121.82 tons, an increase of 5.29 tons [2]. - The operating rate of urea enterprises is 81.22%, an increase of 1.88 percentage points. The daily urea output is 190,000 tons, an increase of 4,400 tons [2]. - The urea export volume is 80 tons, an increase of 23 tons. The monthly output of urea is 5,928,680 tons, a decrease of 123,400 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of compound fertilizers is 38.63%, an increase of 0.81 percentage points. The operating rate of melamine is 56.78%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points [2]. - The weekly profit of compound fertilizers in China is 186 yuan/ton, an increase of 21 yuan/ton. The weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is 19 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton [2]. - The monthly output of compound fertilizers is 531.33 tons, an increase of 109.21 tons. The weekly output of melamine is 28,200 tons, an increase of 700 tons [2]. Industry News - As of September 24, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 121.82 tons, an increase of 5.29 tons from the previous week, a year - on - year increase of 4.54% [2]. - As of September 25, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports is 49.63 tons, a decrease of 1.97 tons from the previous period, a year - on - year decrease of 3.82%. During this period, there are both cargo arrivals and departures at the ports [2]. - As of September 25, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises is 140.15 tons, an increase of 7.15 tons from the previous period, a year - on - year increase of 5.38%. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese urea production enterprises is 85.58%, an increase of 4.36 percentage points from the previous period [2].
瑞达期货尿素产业日报-20250924
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 09:16
尿素产业日报 2025-09-24 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1673 | 15 郑州尿素1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -51 | 4 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 300158 | -4730 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -43029 | 3584 | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 7535 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1650 | -10 河南(日,元/吨) | 1620 | 0 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1620 | -10 山东(日,元/吨) | 1610 | 0 | | | 安徽(日,元/吨) | 1620 | -10 郑州尿素主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -63 | -15 | | | FOB波罗的海(日,美元/吨) | 387.5 | 0 FOB中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 417.5 | 0 | | 产业情况 | 港口库存(周, ...
瑞达期货尿素产业日报-20250923
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 09:04
尿素产业日报 2025-09-23 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1658 | -2 郑州尿素1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -55 | -2 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 304888 | -2508 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -46613 | -590 | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 7535 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1660 | -20 河南(日,元/吨) | 1620 | -20 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1630 | -20 山东(日,元/吨) | 1620 | -20 | | | 安徽(日,元/吨) | 1630 | -20 郑州尿素主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -40 | -19 | | | FOB波罗的海(日,美元/吨) | 387.5 | 0 FOB中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 417.5 | 0 | | 产业情况 | 港口 ...
能源化工尿素周度报告-20250921
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-21 08:49
国泰君安期货·能源化工 尿素周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0021541 日期:2025年09月21日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 资料来源:钢联,隆众资讯,国泰君安期货研究 本周尿素观点:趋势偏弱 • 本周(20250911-0917),中国尿素生产企业产量:133万吨,较上期涨3.07万吨,环比涨2.36%。周期内新增1家企业装置停车,停车企业恢复6家(装置)企 业,同时延续上周期的装置变化,本周产量明显上涨。下周,中国尿素周产量预计140-141万吨附近,较本期明显上涨。下个周期预计1家企业计划停车, 4-5家停车企业恢复生产,考虑到短时的企业故障发生,延续上周期的变化,预期下个周期产量大概率会有明显增加。(隆众资讯) • 内需方面,内需持续偏弱。北方地区农业追肥需求基本结束,在今年农业需求总量有需求前置的背景下,追肥需求的同比增速出现明显下滑。此外,复 合肥行业近期产成品销售压力较大,开工率维持低位,对尿素原料采购需求较为有限,对高价尿素货源接受度低。 • 出口方面,目前三 ...
瑞达期货尿素市场周报-20250919
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-19 09:58
尿素市场周报 研究员:林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 瑞达期货研究院 「 2025.09.19」 郑州尿素期货价格走势 • 本周郑州尿素主力合约价格震荡收跌,周度-0.12%。 「 周度要点小结」 3 行情回顾:本周国内尿素市场先扬后抑,价格继续低位波动。截止本周四山东中小颗粒主流出厂 下跌至1610-1640元/吨,均价环比下跌5元/吨。 行情展望:近期部分停车装置恢复,国内尿素日产量增加,下周预计1家企业计划停车,4-5家停 车企业可能恢复生产,考虑到短时的企业故障发生,产量或有所增加。国内农业需求较为零散, 局部区域仍处于储备阶段,对尿素市场支撑有限。工业需求提升不及预期,复合肥产能利用率环 比小幅回升,但据悉若新接订单量不足,企业则降负荷消化库存,预计短期复合肥产能利用率稳 中有所下滑。近期继续集中集港出口,部分尿素企业出口订单将执行到本月底。本周尿素企业库 存继续小幅增加,局部低价吸引下游适当补仓,但国内整体需求不及供应,尿素日产仍有提升趋 势,加之尿素企业面临国庆收单,预计短期尿素企业库存或继 ...
瑞达期货尿素产业日报-20250918
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-18 10:03
企业出口订单将执行到本月底。本周尿素企业库存继续小幅增加,局部低价吸引下游适当补仓,但国内整 数据来源于第三方,观点仅供参考。市场有风险,投资需谨慎! 体需求不及供应,尿素日产仍有提升趋势,加之尿素企业面临国庆收单,预计短期尿素企业库存或继续累 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1670 | -11 郑州尿素1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -55 | -2 -1231 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 286823 | 5335 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -40881 | | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 8188 | -80 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1680 | 0 河南(日,元/吨) | 1660 | 0 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1650 | 0 山东(日,元/吨) ...
瑞达期货尿素产业日报-20250917
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-17 09:16
尿素产业日报 2025-09-17 当补仓,另外部分农业流向增加,尿素企业出货阶段性好转,但国内整体需求不及供应,尿素日产仍有提 数据来源于第三方,观点仅供参考。市场有风险,投资需谨慎! 升趋势,加之尿素企业面临国庆收单,预计短期尿素企业库存或继续累积。UR2601合约短线预计在1650-1 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 700区间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料,瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠,但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证,据此投资,责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议,客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有,未经书面许可,任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发,需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院,且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日 ...