摘要 快递行业竞争环境趋于缓和，监管部门积极介入并支持行业健康发展， 企业共识避免恶性竞争，预示行业进入高质量发展阶段。11 月国家邮政 局多次会议及企业表态均体现此趋势。 通达系公司盈利能力有望改善，四季度业绩预计良好，为 2026 年估值 提供支撑。7 月至 10 月单票收入普遍上涨，10 月单票利润较三季度提 升，预计四季度单票利润将显著高于三季度。 头部快递企业如中通、圆通增速领先行业，得益于产品结构和服务质量 优势。反内卷环境下，优质客户群体支撑其增长，高品质服务的重要性 提升，头部企业竞争力和估值溢价增强。 监管层面通过核定行业平均成本，支持反内卷工作，确保价格回归合理 水平。中通等龙头企业积极响应并签署桐庐共识，维护市场秩序，提升 整体市场稳定性。 极兔在东南亚市场表现突出，量增显著，受益于线上渗透率提升和核心 客户 TikTok 的增长。通过降本增效和适度价格竞争，实现单票利润稳 定增长，新兴市场如巴西潜力巨大。 Q&A 快递行业投资机会展望 20251204 您提到监管层面的变化对行业有何影响？ 监管层面的变化对快递行业产生了重要影响。国家邮政局自 11 月以来通过召 开多次会议和座谈会，与 ...

人民财讯12月4日电，银河证券指出，快递板块层面，当前下沉电商等新业态成为主要驱动力，且呈现 显著的轻小件化趋势。反内卷政策成效持续释放，多地通过设定价格底线、配套罚款机制整治低价无序 竞争，伴随行业格局进一步优化和智能网联车辆科技赋能，头部快递企业发力打造差异化竞争优势，高 质量发展将继续作为未来发展方向。2026年，2B物流行业或继续受益，需求提振效应更加显著，量价 表现转暖向好的趋势强化。叠加行业竞争格局继续优化整合，集中度持续提升，头部公司市场份额或进 一步稳中有升，业绩潜力释放可期。 ...

2025年，全国快递量再次打破纪录。12月1日，国家邮政局监测数据显示，截至2025年11月30日，我国快递年业务量首次突破1800亿件，超过2024年全年的 1750.8亿件快递业务量，创历史新高。不仅如此，京东、极兔、中通等头部企业在近年来加速发力自动化投入，角逐新一轮无人机、无人车竞争高地。快递 行业正从"价格战"向"价值战"深入推进。 15分钟出库 今年第1800亿件快递，做到了几乎全程的"无人"运输。据了解，这件快递是广东深圳一位市民李先生网购的智能学习机。快件从京东智狼仓经过全自动分拣 出库，运达站点后将由无人快递车送至收件人小区门口，再由京东快递小哥送货上门，派送全程实现了较高程度的无人化。 在第1800亿件快递包裹产生地——京东物流深圳智狼仓中，近200台智狼搬运机器人和飞梯机器人，以及高密度货架、定制化料箱、自动入库工作站等构成 了庞大的"智狼货到人系统"，可在存储、搬运和拣选等环节实现自动化操作。 李锦源是京东物流首批招聘的智慧仓运维员之一，负责机器人日常的维护和检修。在仓内，他每天见证超4万件包裹发出。据李锦源介绍，智狼设备的应用 大大提升了仓内处理效率，例如此次第1800亿件快递，从收 ...

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for ZTO Express (02057, ZTO.US), highlighting a positive outlook for the company's financial performance in the upcoming quarters [1] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 5.3% year-on-year and 30.2% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The net profit per ticket rose by 6.7 cents to 0.26 yuan, driven by a combination of factors including price adjustments and cost management [1] - The increase in express delivery revenue per ticket was 3.6 cents quarter-on-quarter, while transportation and sorting costs per ticket increased by 1.6 cents [1] - Other costs per ticket rose by 1 cent, leading to a gross profit increase of 1 cent per ticket [1] - The effective tax rate per ticket decreased by 4 cents due to tax rebates, and fair value changes increased by 1 cent, contributing to the net profit increase [1] Industry Outlook - The industry is undergoing a strategic shift towards a dual focus on quality and quantity, favoring companies with scale advantages, high service quality, operational efficiency, and competitive costs [1] - ZTO Express is expected to benefit from its strong cost control, service capabilities, and high profitability, positioning it well to capture more market share [1] - By 2026, the express delivery sector may experience a return to differentiated growth, with ZTO's advantages likely to become more pronounced [1] - The company anticipates a simultaneous release of volume and profit, projecting a net profit growth rate of 10% to 15% year-on-year for 2026 [1]

Core Insights - The global express delivery market is experiencing significant growth, with China's express parcel business volume expected to account for 65% of the global market by 2024, making it a key driver of market expansion [1][2] - The global express business volume is projected to reach approximately 26.79 billion parcels in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.49%, with revenue expected to be around 4.6 trillion yuan, a 14.05% increase [1] - The Asia-Pacific region is anticipated to surpass 21 billion parcels in express delivery volume in 2024, constituting 78.9% of the global total, with nearly 40% of the business revenue [1] Industry Performance - China's express parcel market has maintained its position as the largest globally for 11 consecutive years, showcasing its resilience and growth potential [2] - In the first ten months of the current year, China's express business volume reached 1.6268 billion parcels, a year-on-year increase of 16.1%, with October alone seeing 176 million parcels delivered, up 7.9% [2] - The revenue from China's express business for the first ten months totaled approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, reflecting an 8.5% year-on-year growth, with October's revenue at 131.67 billion yuan, a 4.7% increase [2] Future Outlook - The global express market is projected to exceed 30 billion parcels and 5 trillion yuan in revenue by 2025, driven by the sustained high demand in the Chinese market [2] - The industry is transitioning from rapid growth to high-quality development, emphasizing technological innovation to reduce logistics costs and build a modern industrial system [2]

Core Insights - ZTO Express reported its Q3 2025 unaudited financial results, showing a package volume of 9.57 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%, with adjusted net profit rising by 5.0% to RMB 2.51 billion and revenue reaching RMB 11.86 billion, up 11.1% [1] - The founder and CEO emphasized a strategy focused on quality, market share expansion, and maintaining healthy profitability, with a strong growth momentum in the parcel business, which saw nearly 50% year-on-year growth [1] - The CFO noted an increase in core express revenue per ticket by RMB 0.02, with a stable management expense structure at 5.3% of revenue, and a capital expenditure of RMB 1.2 billion for the quarter [1] Financial Performance - Package volume for Q3 2025 was 9.57 billion, a 9.8% increase year-on-year [1] - Adjusted net profit grew by 5.0% to RMB 2.51 billion [1] - Revenue reached RMB 11.86 billion, reflecting an 11.1% year-on-year increase [1] - Operating cash flow was RMB 3.21 billion, up 3.2% [1] Strategic Outlook - The company adjusted its full-year package volume guidance to a range of 38.2 billion to 38.7 billion, corresponding to a year-on-year growth rate of 12.3% to 13.8% [1] - The CEO expressed confidence in the company's ability to enhance service quality, business scale, and profitability amidst a complex macro environment [1] - The company operates 95 sorting centers and over 31,000 pickup and delivery points, with more than 6,000 direct network partners [1] Share Buyback Program - As of September 30, 2025, the company has repurchased a total of 52.92 million American Depositary Shares for $1.3 billion, with $700 million remaining in the share buyback program [2]

Core Insights - The early launch of "Double 11" pre-sales has significantly boosted the express delivery business in October, with a year-on-year growth in the express delivery index of 2.4% and a scale index increase of 5.6% [1] - The expected growth in express delivery volume for October is around 7%, while business revenue is projected to increase by approximately 5% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Industry Growth and Trends - The rapid growth in express delivery volume in October is primarily driven by the extended e-commerce promotional cycle, leading to an early release of order volumes [1][2] - During the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, a total of 7.231 billion express packages were processed, averaging over 900 million packages daily [2] - In mid to late October, express delivery companies collaborated closely with e-commerce platforms, achieving an average daily delivery volume of around 600 million packages [2] Group 2: Infrastructure and Technology Investment - Express delivery companies are increasing investments in infrastructure, such as sorting centers and transportation vehicles, to enhance processing efficiency [2][3] - The widespread application of technology, including smart sorting and route optimization, is reducing errors and delays in the delivery process [2] - The trend towards automation and the use of unmanned devices is seen as a necessary evolution for the industry, significantly improving efficiency and reducing labor costs [3] Group 3: Quality of Service Improvement - The growth in scale is providing financial and situational support for service upgrades, with companies focusing on optimizing transfer processes and enhancing end-user experiences [2] - Companies are also improving service standards through better training and customer feedback mechanisms, which is crucial in a competitive market [2]

Core Insights - The early launch of "Double 11" pre-sales has significantly boosted the express delivery business in October, with a projected year-on-year growth of approximately 7% in business volume and around 5% in revenue [1][2] Group 1: Industry Growth and Trends - The express delivery development index for October 2025 is estimated at 475.5, reflecting a 2.4% year-on-year increase, while the development scale index stands at 616.4, up by 5.6% [1] - The overlap of the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays led to a high volume of express packages processed, totaling 7.231 billion during the holiday period, with a daily average exceeding 900 million [2] - The extension of promotional cycles by e-commerce platforms has resulted in an early release of order volumes, contributing to the rapid growth of express delivery business in October [1][2] Group 2: Infrastructure and Technology Investment - Express companies are enhancing their infrastructure, including sorting centers and transportation vehicles, to improve processing efficiency [2] - The widespread application of technology, such as smart sorting and route optimization, is reducing errors and delays in the delivery process [2] - Investment in smart and unmanned devices is seen as a necessary trend for the industry, significantly improving efficiency and reducing labor costs [3] Group 3: Quality of Service Improvement - The competition within the industry is intensifying, prompting companies to enhance service quality to capture market share [2] - The growth in scale provides financial and situational support for service upgrades, with companies optimizing transit and increasing the number of end-point stores to improve customer experience [2] - The focus on technology and infrastructure is aimed at effectively managing the rapid increase in business volume during peak seasons [2][3]

Core Insights - The express delivery industry is experiencing varied profit trends among companies, with some reporting growth while others face declines in net profit [2][3] - The average express delivery price has stabilized and begun to rise, indicating a shift towards higher quality development in the industry [7][8] - The adoption of unmanned devices is becoming a significant trend as companies prepare for peak seasons like Double Eleven [8][9] Financial Performance - Shentong reported a revenue of 135.5 billion yuan in Q3, a year-on-year increase of 13.62%, with a net profit of 3.02 billion yuan, up 40.32% [2] - YTO Express achieved a revenue of 182.7 billion yuan in Q3, a year-on-year increase of 8.73%, with a net profit of 10.46 billion yuan, up 10.97% [2] - SF Express reported a revenue of 784 billion yuan in Q3, a year-on-year increase of 8.2%, but a net profit decline of 8.5% to 25.7 billion yuan [3] - Yunda's Q3 revenue was 126.6 billion yuan, up 3.29%, but net profit fell by 45.21% to 2.01 billion yuan [3] Industry Trends - The express delivery industry is moving towards high-quality development, with discussions among industry leaders on improving service quality and reducing vicious competition [3][5] - Companies are increasingly focusing on enhancing service quality and differentiating themselves, with Yunda integrating AI technologies for better customer service [4] - The industry is witnessing a wave of price increases, driven by policy changes aimed at improving service quality and reducing competition [7][8] Technological Advancements - The use of unmanned devices is on the rise, with companies like Jitu and Zhongtong investing in automation to improve efficiency and reduce costs [8][9] - Zhongtong plans to deploy over 2,900 unmanned delivery vehicles by Q2 2025, significantly enhancing operational efficiency [8][9] Market Expansion - SF Express reported a 27% year-on-year increase in international express and cross-border e-commerce logistics revenue in Q3 [4] - Jitu's international package volume growth outpaced domestic growth, with a 78.7% increase in Southeast Asia [4]

Summary of the Express Delivery Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the express delivery industry in China, particularly addressing the issue of "involution" characterized by intense price competition among companies, especially in the context of cross-regional e-commerce deliveries [1][7]. Core Points and Arguments - **Price Competition**: The core issue of involution is attributed to severe price competition, particularly in delivery fees, which are influenced by local average wages and work difficulty rather than direct company decisions [7]. - **Regulatory Measures**: The State Post Bureau plans to continue promoting anti-involution measures by 2026, including precise regulation of high-volume provinces, training for express companies, and the establishment of laws and standards [1][9]. - **Reasons Against Involution**: The opposition to industry involution is based on four main reasons: ensuring social harmony, improving service quality, promoting high-quality corporate development, and achieving sustainable development goals [3]. - **Key Areas of Concern**: Six critical areas to address include data monopolization, price competition (both benign and malicious), exploitation of workers, malicious public opinion, tax evasion, and inadequate protection systems for workers [5]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Future Development Indicators**: Future indicators for high-quality development in the express delivery industry include formulating development plans, expanding market reach, enhancing service quality, fostering innovation, and building a strong brand reputation [10][11]. - **Diverse Development Paths**: Companies are encouraged to explore diverse development paths such as international expansion and services for the manufacturing sector, alongside cost reduction through automation [3][8]. - **Effective Anti-Involution Strategies**: Effective strategies include legislative measures, policy support, market monitoring, and public opinion guidance to create a balanced and sustainable industry environment [6][9]. Conclusion - The express delivery industry in China is at a critical juncture where addressing involution through comprehensive regulatory frameworks, market strategies, and service improvements is essential for sustainable growth and worker protection [1][3][10].