机构：辉立证券(香港) 研究员：章晶 公司簡介 吉利汽車是我國自主品牌乘用車領軍企業之一，主營乘用車及核心零部件的研發、生產和銷售，自主掌 握汽車領域核心技術，廣泛佈局主流車型市場。公司旗下產品包括吉利、幾何、領克、極氪、睿藍、銀 河六大子品牌，覆蓋A0 至C 級乘用車市場。 投資概要 上半年業績強勁，核心淨利同比翻番 吉利汽車公佈2025 年中期業績，2025 年上半年的總收入達到 1502.8 億元（人民幣，下同），同比 +26.5%，創歷史新高；歸母淨利潤92.9 億元，同比-13.9%；如果剔除外匯匯兑收益、減值虧損及2024 年視為出售附屬公司之收益後，核心歸母利潤為 66.6億元，同比+102%。 第二季度單季度，公司實現營業收入777.9 億元，同/環比分別+28.4%/+7.3%；我們測算扣除匯兑收益及 一次性收益影響後的核心歸母淨利潤約31.8 億元，同/環比分別+127%/-8.7%。 新能源車銷量快速增加，占比超50% 上半年公司累計總銷量達到140.9 萬輛，同比+47.4%，遠高於同期國內乘用車行業+13%的銷量同比增 速。其中，新能源車累計72.5 萬輛，同比+126.5%，占比5 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][11]. Core Insights - The company is expected to experience high growth driven by the release of potential new vehicles and strategic integration, which will facilitate profit release from the second half of 2025 onwards [6][7]. - The net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted upwards to 156.6 billion, 179.7 billion, and 215.7 billion RMB, respectively, corresponding to EPS of 1.7, 1.9, and 2.2 RMB [6]. - The company has raised its annual sales target for 2025 to 3 million vehicles, supported by the platform-based cost advantages and the launch of several new models [7]. Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 179.204 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 21.1%. By 2025, revenue is expected to reach 330.103 billion RMB, reflecting a growth rate of 37.4% [7]. - The net profit for 2023 is estimated at 5.308 billion RMB, with a significant increase of 213.3% in 2024, followed by a slight decrease of 5.9% in 2025 [7]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 15.3% in 2023 to 17.1% by 2027, while the net margin is projected to rise from 3.0% to 5.4% over the same period [7].

Core Insights - Geely Automobile reported a record revenue of 150.3 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 27% [1] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders reached 9.29 billion yuan, with core net profit growing by 102% to 6.66 billion yuan after excluding non-core losses [1] Financial Performance - Total revenue for the first half of 2025 was 150.3 billion yuan, a historical high [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 9.29 billion yuan, with core net profit at 6.66 billion yuan, reflecting a 102% increase year-on-year [1] - Gross profit margin improved to 16.4%, with total gross profit rising to 24.7 billion yuan [11] Sales and Market Position - Geely's total sales reached nearly 1.41 million units in the first half of 2025, a 47% increase year-on-year, with a market share exceeding 10% for the first time [5] - The company raised its annual sales target from 2.71 million to 3 million units, an increase of approximately 11% [5] - Cumulative sales of new energy vehicles reached 725,000 units, a 126% increase year-on-year [5] Strategic Integration - The term "integration" encapsulates Geely's strategy for the first half of 2025, highlighting the successful merger of Zeekr and Lynk & Co, which resulted in a 14.5% increase in combined sales to 245,000 units [6][7] - The strategic integration has led to significant operational efficiencies, with a decrease in R&D expense ratio by 5.8 percentage points to 7.8% and a reduction in selling and administrative expense ratio by 1.2 percentage points to 12.3% [7][11] Future Outlook - Geely plans to further enhance its competitive edge in the smart new energy sector through the formal merger with Zeekr, expected to be completed within the year [12] - The company aims to cover all powertrain forms, including fuel, pure electric, hybrid, and alcohol-hydrogen, while expanding its presence in mainstream, mid-to-high-end, and luxury markets [12] - The launch of new models is set to support the achievement of the 3 million sales target, with multiple new energy products scheduled for release in the second half of 2025 [18]

Core Viewpoint - Geely Automobile reported a strong performance in the first half of 2025, with revenue reaching 150.28 billion RMB, a 27% year-on-year increase, despite a 14% decline in net profit to 9.29 billion RMB. The company aims to achieve annual sales of 5 million vehicles through strategic integration and resource consolidation [1][4]. Financial Performance - Revenue for the first half of 2025 was 150.28 billion RMB, up 27% year-on-year [1]. - Net profit was 9.29 billion RMB, down 14% compared to the previous year [1]. - Vehicle sales reached 1.409 million units, a 47% increase year-on-year [1]. - In 2024, Geely's total revenue was 240.19 billion RMB, with a net profit of 16.63 billion RMB, marking a 213.32% increase year-on-year [3]. Sales and Market Position - Geely's overall sales exceeded 1.409 million units in the first half of 2025, with new energy vehicle sales reaching 725,200 units, a 126% increase, accounting for 51.5% of total sales [4]. - In the Chinese market, Geely sold 1.2251 million units, a 62% increase, capturing an 11.2% market share [4]. - The Geely brand sold 1.1643 million units, a 57% increase, while the Galaxy series achieved sales of 548,400 units, a 232% increase [4]. Strategic Integration and Future Goals - Geely is undergoing significant strategic integration, including the merger of Lynk & Co into Zeekr and the consolidation of R&D resources, with nearly 3,000 personnel from various teams being integrated into a new entity [1][9]. - The company has raised its sales target for 2025 from 2.71 million to 3 million units, reflecting confidence in its market performance [8]. - Geely aims to achieve annual sales of 5 million vehicles by 2027, narrowing the gap with BYD, which currently leads in the market [10].

Core Viewpoint - ExxonMobil is actively seeking to acquire smaller industry peers, focusing on strategic integration to create value rather than merely expanding scale [1][2] Group 1: Acquisition Strategy - CEO Darren Woods emphasized that future acquisitions will prioritize synergy in assets and expertise, aiming for a value creation effect of "one plus one greater than three" [1][2] - The company’s previous acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources for $60 billion serves as a validation of this strategy [1] - Woods highlighted that any merger must create added value beyond what individual companies could achieve independently, contrasting with the common "production consolidation" approach in the industry [2] Group 2: Market Context - Current oil price volatility is pressuring oil producers, with some companies forced to maintain high shareholder returns since record profits in 2022 [1] - Major energy firms like BP have become targets of market speculation regarding mergers due to pressure from activist investors [1] - The acquisition strategy reflects a new trend among traditional energy giants to enhance competitiveness through refined integration amid energy transition and market fluctuations [2] Group 3: Financial Performance - In Q2, ExxonMobil reported revenues of $81.5 billion and an adjusted net profit of $7.1 billion, equating to $1.64 per share [1] - The company paid $4.3 billion in dividends and maintained a $20 billion stock buyback plan, alleviating investor concerns about sustaining shareholder returns during periods of commodity price weakness [1]

Core Viewpoint - Geely Holding Group announced the acquisition of all remaining shares of Zeekr, with a potential maximum investment of 17.2 billion RMB, marking a significant strategic move towards consolidating its high-end electric vehicle segment [1][8]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition will result in Zeekr becoming a wholly-owned subsidiary of Geely, allowing for better resource allocation and potential synergies [1][2]. - Zeekr's shareholders will have the option to receive either cash or stock, creating a win-win scenario for all parties involved [1][8]. - The total payment for the acquisition could reach up to 2.399 billion USD, equivalent to approximately 17.2 billion RMB, with a significant portion allocated to related shareholders [8]. Group 2: Strategic Implications - The merger is part of Geely's broader strategy to streamline its business lines and enhance its capabilities in the smart electric vehicle sector [1][5]. - The integration of Zeekr is expected to improve Geely's operational efficiency, with anticipated increases in R&D, management, and marketing efficiencies by 15% to 20% [4]. - The successful integration will strengthen Geely's position in the luxury electric vehicle market, enhancing its product matrix and competitive edge [4][6]. Group 3: Market Expectations - Analysts have responded positively to the merger, with forecasts for Geely's net profit for 2025-2027 being revised upwards to 13.7 billion, 18.1 billion, and 23.2 billion RMB respectively [9]. - The strategic consolidation is expected to enhance Geely's financial performance, with projected revenues for the same period also being adjusted upward [9]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The merger signifies Geely's commitment to its "One Geely" strategy, aiming for a more cohesive and efficient operational structure [5][7]. - The integration of Zeekr is anticipated to facilitate collaboration with other brands under Geely's umbrella, enhancing technological and operational synergies [3][6].

Core Viewpoint - Geely Holding Group announced the formal signing of a merger agreement between Geely Auto and Zeekr Technology, with Geely Auto set to acquire all Zeekr shares not already held, allowing Zeekr shareholders to choose cash or Geely Auto shares as compensation [1] Group 1: Merger Details - Geely Auto will acquire all outstanding shares of Zeekr, excluding those already owned by Geely [1] - Zeekr shareholders have the option to receive either cash or Geely Auto shares as payment for their shares [1] Group 2: Strategic Implications - The merger is part of Geely Holding's strategic transformation, as outlined in the "Taizhou Declaration" released last year [1] - The strategic integration is expected to significantly impact the collaborative development of various brands, innovation capabilities, profitability, and sustainable development potential [1] - This move aims to further promote high-quality development for Geely Holding Group and create greater value for users and investors [1] Group 3: Previous Proposals - On May 7, Geely announced a non-binding offer to privatize Zeekr, proposing to acquire all issued and outstanding Zeekr shares and American Depositary Shares at a price of $25.66 per share [1] - Following this proposal, Zeekr stated that no decision had been made regarding Geely's privatization offer [1]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement details a significant ownership change in Chengzhi Co., with the indirect controlling shareholder, Qingdao Haikong Investment Holdings Co., transferring 100% of its shares in Chengzhi to its wholly-owned subsidiary, Dongjiakou Group, which will indirectly acquire 30.83% of Chengzhi's shares [1][2]. Group 1: Ownership Change - Dongjiakou Group has signed an agreement to acquire 100% of Qingdao Haikong Investment Holdings Co. without any monetary compensation, only incurring necessary fees as per national regulations [2]. - Prior to this acquisition, Dongjiakou Group did not hold any shares in Chengzhi, while Chengzhi Kairong, the current controlling shareholder, holds 375 million shares, representing 30.83% of the total share capital [1][2]. Group 2: Business Operations - Chengzhi Co. operates in industrial gases, basic chemical raw materials, semiconductor display materials, life science products, and industrial hemp cultivation and processing [2]. - The company reported a revenue of 11.066 billion yuan and a net profit of 231 million yuan for the fiscal year 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 29.98% [2]. Group 3: Strategic Integration - The acquisition aims to promote internal strategic integration within Haikong Group, transferring ownership of Haikong Investment Holdings to Dongjiakou Group [1][2]. - There is no indication of competitive conflict between the businesses of the acquirer and Chengzhi, ensuring no adverse effects on the company's operations or minority shareholders [3].

Core Insights - The core strategy of Geely Holding is focused on synergy and integration, aiming for significant cost savings in R&D and procurement, as well as a reduction in management and marketing expenses [2] - The recent acquisition of Zeekr by Geely has garnered strong support from shareholders, indicating a high level of confidence in the company's strategic adjustments [2][3] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Geely achieved total revenue of 72.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25%, with net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 5.67 billion yuan, up 264% [2] - The total sales volume reached 704,000 units, representing a 48% increase year-on-year, significantly outperforming the industry average [2] - Sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) were particularly strong, with cumulative sales of 339,000 units from the Galaxy, Zeekr, and Lynk & Co brands, marking a 135% increase [2] Brand Performance - The Galaxy series has entered a rapid growth phase, with Q1 sales nearing 260,000 units, a 214% increase year-on-year [3] - Zeekr achieved total sales of 114,000 units, with a 16.1% increase in vehicle sales revenue and a gross margin of 16.5% [3] - Lynk & Co's Q1 sales reached 73,000 units, a 19% increase, with strong market response to the Lynk 900 model [3] Technological Advancements - Geely is increasing its investment in the new energy sector, having integrated its battery business into a new entity to enhance technological competitiveness [3] - The launch of the "Qianli Haohan" intelligent safety driving system marks a significant advancement in AI and autonomous driving capabilities [5] Global Expansion - In Q1 2025, Geely exported approximately 90,000 vehicles, expanding its global sales network to 86 countries with over 900 service points [5] - The establishment of local production facilities in Egypt, Indonesia, and Vietnam is part of Geely's strategy to enhance brand recognition and reduce trade risks [6] Strategic Integration - The acquisition of Zeekr is a key move in Geely's strategic integration, expected to enhance R&D, management, and marketing efficiency by 15% to 20% [7] - The integration aims to optimize resource allocation across R&D, supply chain, and sales, thereby improving operational efficiency in a rapidly changing market [7]

Core Viewpoint - Geely Auto plans to acquire all outstanding shares of Zeekr at a price of $2.57 per share, marking a significant strategic shift as it aims to consolidate its brands and resources under the "One Geely" initiative [1][2][15]. Group 1: Strategic Moves - The acquisition of Zeekr is part of Geely's broader strategy to streamline its operations and address internal inefficiencies, as highlighted in the "Taizhou Declaration" [16][19]. - Geely's chairman Li Shufu expressed that the urgency of this move reflects deep concerns about the company's future amidst a rapidly changing external environment [2][14]. Group 2: Market Context - Zeekr, which went public on May 10, 2024, became the fastest IPO among Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers, achieving significant sales milestones [5][8]. - Despite initial success, Zeekr faced intense competition from new entrants like Xiaomi, which launched the SU7, significantly impacting Zeekr's market position [9][21]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Zeekr's revenue grew from 6.528 billion yuan in 2021 to 51.67 billion yuan in 2023, with a notable increase in gross margin from 1.8% to 15% over the same period [8]. - However, following its IPO, Zeekr's stock price fell sharply, indicating market volatility and investor concerns about its long-term viability [12][13]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape for electric vehicles has intensified, with Zeekr struggling to maintain its market share against rivals like Xiaomi and others [10][22]. - Geely's strategy of launching multiple brands and models has led to internal competition, complicating Zeekr's market strategy and brand positioning [17][19].