未经许可，不得转载或者引用。 投资要点 为什么在2020年整车行情出现向上拐点？ 2020年起虽有疫情干扰，但指数开始向上，主要原因为行业销量同比转正；新能源渗透 率开始出现实质性的拐点，且本轮新能源浪潮带动自主品牌份额显著提升，自主整车车企分得 更多行业蛋糕。 n新能源渗透率出现核心拐点的原因主要为：特斯拉国产化后带来产业趋势 强化，Model 3迅速爬坡上量成为爆款。产业链经济性的改善带来供给端百花齐放。 几次整车指数见底向上分别发生了什么？ 21年5月：电动化逻辑仍很强势（渗透率约为10%），终端需求未减弱，缺芯阶段性缓解。 行 业缺芯问题从2021年初开始全面爆发，指数对应下跌。21年5月开始市场普遍预期7-8月供应问 题将逐步缓解（预计马来西亚芯片工厂8月将复工等），股价提前反应行业基本面改善的前 景。 22年5月：电动化逻辑较强势（渗透率约为25%），封控区复工复产，购置税补贴政策落地， 电池成本高位震荡。 22Q1上海等地由于疫情影响长三角地区供应链体系也受到较大影响，同 时电池成本飙升，指数快速调整。22年5月国常会宣布阶段性减征乘用车购置税 600 亿元，对 30 万元以下、2.0L 及以下 ...

机构：中金公司 研究员：邓学/任丹霖/荆文娟 公司近况 公司公告，2025 年吉利实现乘用车销量3,024,567 辆，同比+39%，超出公司原定的300 万辆年度销量目 标。 评论 2025 年销量收官，全年销量超目标完成。分品牌来看，吉利主品牌、极氪、领克分别实现销量 2,449,939 辆、224,133 辆、350,495 辆，同比分别+47%/+1%/+23%，新车销量中新能源车型销量同比 +90%至1,687,767 辆，占比+15ppt至55.8%。我们认为，公司销量高增主要得益于银河品牌产品矩阵丰 富，星愿车型月销4 万辆以上，并在年内推出A7、星耀6、星耀8、M9 多款全新车型，推动银河品牌 2025 年销量同比+150%至1,235,807 辆，贡献主要增长点。在出口方面，出口销量同比+1%至420,097 辆，整体保持稳健。 设立2026 年销量目标345 万辆，产品矩阵持续拓宽，多品牌协同释放盈利弹性。公司设定2026 年乘用 车销量同比+14%至345万辆，其中新能源汽车销量同比+32%至222 万辆，分品牌来看，吉利/极氪/领克 销量目标分别为275 万辆、30 万辆、40 万辆。 ...

Core Insights - Geely's sales in 2026 exceeded 3.02 million units, marking a 39% year-on-year increase, with over half being new energy vehicles, which surged by 90% to 1.69 million units [2][4] - The company achieved a revenue of 239.5 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a 26% increase, and a core net profit of 10.62 billion yuan, up 59% [2][7] - Geely has entered the "3 million club" of global automakers, alongside giants like Toyota and Volkswagen, securing a spot among the top ten global car manufacturers [2] Step One: Rapid Electrification Transformation - Geely's strategic focus on electrification has allowed it to thrive amid fierce competition, achieving a new energy penetration rate of 56% by 2025 [4][5] - The Galaxy brand has seen significant success, with annual sales reaching 1.24 million units, a 150% increase, and the Galaxy M9 becoming a key player in the mid-to-high-end market [4][5] - Geely's traditional fuel vehicle sales also grew by 3%, demonstrating a balanced approach to maintaining its core business while pushing for new energy growth [5] Step Two: Strategic Integration of "One Geely" - Geely completed the privatization and merger of Zeekr, enhancing resource synergy across R&D, procurement, and manufacturing, which is expected to lower costs and improve efficiency [7][8] - The merger is seen as a strategic move to consolidate efforts in the smart electric vehicle sector, allowing for better resource allocation and market positioning [8][9] - The company's financial performance reflects this integration, with Q3 2025 revenue reaching 89.2 billion yuan, a 27% increase, and core net profit growing by 19% [7][8] Step Three: Full-Scale AI Integration - Geely has established itself as a technology company by implementing a comprehensive AI system across all vehicle domains, including architecture, power, chassis, and intelligent driving [10][12] - The launch of the AI-driven H9 system for autonomous driving showcases Geely's commitment to advanced technology, with plans to introduce L3 and L4 functionalities in 2026 [12][15] - The integration of AI technologies into new models, such as the Galaxy M9 and Zeekr 9X, demonstrates Geely's ability to rapidly translate technological advancements into market-ready products [16] Growth Engines for 2026 - Geely aims for a sales target of 3.45 million units in 2026, with 2.22 million from new energy vehicles, supported by the launch of approximately ten new models [17][18] - The company is shifting towards a localized supply chain and manufacturing capabilities in key overseas markets, enhancing its global competitiveness [18][19] - Policy changes favoring higher-value vehicles are expected to benefit Geely, which has focused on high-value products and aims to leverage these changes for growth [19][20] Future Outlook - Geely's market valuation is approaching 200 billion HKD, with over 40 institutions providing positive ratings, indicating a reassessment of its technological capabilities [21][23] - The company is positioned to redefine its identity from a traditional automaker to a technology-driven enterprise, with a complete AI ecosystem in place [22][23] - Geely's strategic focus on integrating technology, enhancing product offerings, and expanding globally suggests a promising trajectory for future growth and innovation [24]

中金发布研报称，由于吉利汽车(00175)产品周期向上，多品牌协同提升盈利能力，上调2025/2026净利 润3.2%/8.9%至175亿元/215亿元。首次引入2027年净利润249亿元。当前股价对应2025/2026/2027年10.4 倍/8.3倍/7.0倍市盈率。维持跑赢行业评级和26.00港元目标价，对应11.9倍2026年市盈率，较当前股价 有42.9%的上行空间。 公司公告，2025年吉利实现乘用车销量3,024,567辆，同比+39%，超出公司原定的300万辆年度销量目 标。 2025年销量收官，全年销量超目标完成 分品牌来看，吉利主品牌、极氪、领克分别实现销量2,449,939辆、224,133辆、350,495辆，同比分别 +47%/+1%/+23%，新车销量中新能源车型销量同比+90%至1,687,767辆，占比+15ppt至55.8%。该行认 为，公司销量高增主要得益于银河品牌产品矩阵丰富，星愿车型月销4万辆以上，并在年内推出A7、星 耀6、星耀8、M9多款全新车型，推动银河品牌2025年销量同比+150%至1,235,807辆，贡献主要增长 点。在出口方面，出口销量同比+1%至420 ...

文｜祎 依 编辑｜张 坤 在价格战反复上演、技术快速下沉、淘汰压力持续加码的背景下，2025年已经成为过去。 这一年，中国汽车产业没有出现戏剧性的逆转时刻，却在持续的高强度运行中，完成了一次重要过渡：电动化进入普及区间，智能化开始接受安全与责任 的现实检验；企业扩张的冲动被压缩，效率、治理与组织能力被推到更显眼的位置。 一些旧的竞争方式正在失效。一味依赖规模、速度和营销话语，越来越难以支撑长期增长；取而代之的，是对技术边界、产业协同和规则秩序的重新重 视。无论是反内卷治理、国企改革推进，还是出海逻辑与资本路径的变化，这些看似分散的事件，正在共同指向一个事实——中国汽车产业，正在进入一 个更重耐力、也更考验成熟度的阶段。 基于我们的观察，仅以几个关键瞬间，回顾2025年的中国汽车。 反内卷全面启动：中国汽车被拉回规则竞争 但答案不止于反内卷，更在于摒弃同质化竞争 新长安成立，央企改革这堂课有了鲜活新案例 对一个长期强调市场竞争的行业而言，这样的高强度介入并不常见，却并不令人意外。 因为以价格战为代表的内卷式恶性竞争，早已不只是企业之间的博弈问题。价格持续下探，吞噬整车企业利润的同时，也通过账期、压库和成本转嫁， ...

公司电动化转型正在加速，高性价比产品策略取得成效，在各个主流价格区间都有市场认可的产品。公 司汽车业务整合后有望降低采购成本、共享技术，产品整体竞争力有望提升。2026 年汽车补贴延续， 汽车市场有望维持景气度，公司销量增长可期。根据公司11 月18 日公告，公司完成对极氪的私有化 后，将进行股份回购，总金额不超过23 亿港元，预计对股价有提振作用。我们预计公司2025/2026/2027 年净利润分别至170.6/218.5/281.8 亿元，扣除一次性收益的影响， YOY 分别为+80%/+28%/+29% ， EPS 分别为1.59/2.04/2.62 元。当前股价对应P/E 分别为9.6/7.5/5.8 倍，建议"买进"。 机构：群益证券(香港) 研究员：沈嘉婕 结论与建议： 12 月22 日，公司发布公告，宣布完成极氪私有化并于纽交所退市。公司通过发行股份（占70.8%）和 支付现金（占29.2%）完成此项交易。合并后公司汽车业务在研发、营销、采购等方面将进一步整合， 运营效率有望提升。 极氪完成私有化，运营效率有望提升：12 月22 日，公司发布公告，宣布完成极氪私有化并于纽交所退 市，极氪将成为 ...

群益证券主要观点如下： 公司电动化转型正在加速，高性价比产品策略取得成效，在各个主流价格区间都有市场认可的产品 公司汽车业务整合后有望降低采购成本、共享技术，产品整体竞争力有望提升。2026年汽车补贴延续， 汽车市场有望维持景气度，公司销量增长可期。根据公司11月18日公告，公司完成对极氪的私有化后， 将进行股份回购，总金额不超过23亿港元，预计对股价有提振作用。该行预计公司2025/2026/2027年净 利润分别至170.6/218.5/281.8亿元，扣除一次性收益的影响，YOY分别为+80%/+28%/+29%，EPS分别为 1.59/2.04/2.62元。当前股价对应P/E分别为9.6/7.5/5.8倍，建议"买进"。 群益证券发布研报称，12月22日，吉利汽车(00175)发布公告，宣布完成极氪私有化并于纽交所退市。 公司通过发行股份(占70.8%)和支付现金(占29.2%)完成此项交易。合并后公司汽车业务在研发、营销、 采购等方面将进一步整合，运营效率有望提升。建议买进。 公司电动化加速，2026年产品矩阵将进一步完善 2025年公司电动化进程加速，1-11月公司累计销售汽车278.78万辆，Y ...

Core Viewpoint - Geely Automobile has completed the privatization of Zeekr and will delist from the New York Stock Exchange, aiming to enhance operational efficiency through integration of its automotive business [1][3] Group 1: Privatization and Integration - The privatization of Zeekr was completed on December 22, with approximately 70.8% of shareholders opting for stock exchange and 29.2% for cash compensation, resulting in a cash payment of $701 million [1][3] - Following the merger, the company expects to reduce R&D investment by 10% to 20%, lower BOM costs by 5% to 8%, and improve capacity utilization by 3% to 5% [3] Group 2: Electric Vehicle Strategy - The company is accelerating its electrification process, with total vehicle sales reaching 2.7878 million units from January to November, a year-on-year increase of 41.8%, and new energy vehicle sales reaching 1.5335 million units, up 97% [4] - The company plans to launch multiple new models in 2026, including three SUVs and two sedans under the Galaxy brand, and aims to strengthen its export of new energy vehicles, expecting a 50% year-on-year increase [4] Group 3: Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 17.06 billion, 21.85 billion, and 28.18 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 80%, 28%, and 29% [2][5] - The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 9.6, 7.5, and 5.8 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with a recommendation to "buy" [2][5]

Core Insights - Great Wall Motors' Ora brand has launched the new A-class pure electric SUV, Ora 5, with a retail price range of 99,800 to 133,800 yuan, and a limited-time trade-in price starting at 91,800 yuan [1] - The Ora brand, established in August 2018, targets female consumers and has previously achieved stable monthly sales of over 10,000 units in 2021, but has faced challenges due to rising battery costs and intense market competition [1] - The new Ora 5 marks a strategic shift for the brand, moving away from the "cat series" naming convention and focusing on a "brand + number" naming system, while also broadening its target audience beyond just female consumers [1] Market Positioning - The Ora 5 is the first SUV model for the Ora brand, entering the competitive A-class SUV market, which is favored by consumers [2] - In the first 11 months of this year, the market share for Chinese brand sedans, SUVs, and MPVs was 64%, 73.4%, and 68.6% respectively, indicating a strong preference for SUVs [2] - The Ora 5 will compete directly with popular models such as BYD Yuan UP, Galaxy E5, and BYD Song Pro DM, which dominated the sales rankings in the 80,000 to 120,000 yuan price range [2] Product Features - The Ora 5 is equipped with a 10.25-inch instrument panel and a 15.6-inch central control screen, featuring the Coffee OS vehicle system and DeepSeek model for advanced functionalities [3] - It includes the third-generation Coffee Pilot Ultra driving assistance system, enabling city navigation without relying on high-precision maps, which is a key selling point [3] - Although the initial launch is for the pure electric version, there are plans to introduce other powertrain options in the future, reflecting a shift from the brand's previous focus solely on electric vehicles [3]

Core Insights - Great Wall Motors' Ora brand has launched the new A-class pure electric SUV, Ora 5, with a retail price range of 99,800 to 133,800 yuan, and a limited-time trade-in price starting at 91,800 yuan [2] - The Ora brand, established in August 2018, targets female consumers and has previously achieved stable monthly sales of over 10,000 units in 2021, but faced challenges due to rising battery costs and market competition [2][3] - The new Ora 5 marks a strategic shift for the brand, moving away from the "cat series" naming convention and focusing on a broader market appeal [2] Market Positioning - The Ora 5 is the first SUV model for the Ora brand, entering the competitive A-class SUV market, which is favored by consumers [3] - In the first 11 months of this year, the market share for Chinese brand sedans, SUVs, and MPVs was 64%, 73.4%, and 68.6% respectively, indicating a strong preference for SUVs [3] - The Ora 5 will compete directly with popular models such as BYD Yuan UP, Galaxy E5, and BYD Song Pro DM, which dominated the sales rankings in the 80,000 to 120,000 yuan segment [3] Product Features - The Ora 5 is equipped with a 10.25-inch instrument panel and a 15.6-inch central control screen, featuring the Coffee OS vehicle system and advanced functionalities like dual-zone voice recognition and remote control via mobile apps [4] - It includes the third-generation Coffee Pilot Ultra driving assistance system, enabling urban navigation without relying on high-precision maps, which is a key selling point [4] - Currently, only the pure electric version of the Ora 5 is available, but plans for additional powertrain options are in place, indicating a shift from the brand's previous focus solely on electric vehicles [4][5] Strategic Developments - The Ora 5 is the first mass-produced vehicle from Great Wall Motors' new platform, which aims for a multi-powertrain and multi-category approach [5] - The brand has initiated independent channel recruitment, suggesting a strategic move to enhance its market presence [5]