机构：辉立证券(香港) 研究员：章晶 公司簡介 吉利汽車是我國自主品牌乘用車領軍企業之一，主營乘用車及核心零部件的研發、生產和銷售，自主掌 握汽車領域核心技術，廣泛佈局主流車型市場。公司旗下產品包括吉利、幾何、領克、極氪、睿藍、銀 河六大子品牌，覆蓋A0 至C 級乘用車市場。 投資概要 上半年業績強勁，核心淨利同比翻番 吉利汽車公佈2025 年中期業績，2025 年上半年的總收入達到 1502.8 億元（人民幣，下同），同比 +26.5%，創歷史新高；歸母淨利潤92.9 億元，同比-13.9%；如果剔除外匯匯兑收益、減值虧損及2024 年視為出售附屬公司之收益後，核心歸母利潤為 66.6億元，同比+102%。 第二季度單季度，公司實現營業收入777.9 億元，同/環比分別+28.4%/+7.3%；我們測算扣除匯兑收益及 一次性收益影響後的核心歸母淨利潤約31.8 億元，同/環比分別+127%/-8.7%。 新能源車銷量快速增加，占比超50% 上半年公司累計總銷量達到140.9 萬輛，同比+47.4%，遠高於同期國內乘用車行業+13%的銷量同比增 速。其中，新能源車累計72.5 萬輛，同比+126.5%，占比5 ...

摘要 吉利汽车 2025 年上半年销量达 141 万辆，二季度经营性利润约 31 亿 人民币，上半年累计约 66 亿人民币，符合市场预期。 吉利汽车上调全年销量预期至 300 万辆，预计全年经营性利润可达 140 亿人民币，主要受益于下半年新车型发布及高端化产品放量。 吉利燃油车在萎缩市场中逆势增长，出口预计达 45 万辆，俄罗斯市场 占比约 20%，受益于购置税政策，预计未来保持增长。 银河系列产品表现良好，银河 M9 订单超预期，心愿车型销量稳定，星 耀 8 以 A 级价格定位 B 级插混车型，月销破万。 吉利发布多款高端 SUV，包括银河 M9、领克 900 和极氪 9X，分别定 位于不同价格带，明确大六座 SUV 市场策略。 吉利整合极氪和领克，通过流程、采购、研发融合控本降费，极氪一季 度扭亏为盈，计划 9 月将极氪并入上市公司主体。 极氪品牌 001 和 007 销量稳定，9X 预计 8 月底预售，全年预计销量接 近 30 万辆；领克品牌将推出 EMP 中大型轿车领克 10 及纯电产品 Z10 和 Z20。 吉利汽车 20250824 Q&A 吉利汽车在当前行业变革期的表现如何？ 吉利汽车在当前行 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong performance in the first half of 2025, with a significant increase in revenue but a decline in net profit, indicating a mixed financial outlook for the year [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 150.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 9.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14% [1] - The core net profit attributable to shareholders reached 6.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 102% [1] - The company’s average selling price (ASP) per vehicle was 95,500 yuan, down 12.9% year-on-year, while the gross margin was 16.4%, a decline of 0.3 percentage points [2] - The company’s net profit per vehicle was 4,724 yuan, an increase of 37% year-on-year [2] Group 2: Sales and Market Performance - The company’s sales volume for the first half of 2025 reached 1.503 million units, with a target increase to 3 million units for the full year [1][2] - The sales of fuel vehicles grew to 684,000 units, while pure electric vehicle sales reached 511,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 173% [2] - The company’s export sales in the first half of 2025 were 184,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 8% [1] Group 3: Product Development and Strategy - The company plans to enhance its product offerings by organizing into five major battle zones and customizing products by region [1] - The launch of multiple "9" series models aims to penetrate the high-end market, with the Lynk & Co 900 model showing promising sales [3] - The company’s upcoming models, including the Zeekr 9X and Galaxy M9, are expected to improve brand recognition in high-end intelligent driving solutions [3] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The profit forecast for the company has been adjusted, with expected net profits of 15.96 billion yuan, 16.70 billion yuan, and 19.76 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4] - The company maintains a "recommended" rating despite the competitive challenges it faces in the market [4]

Core Viewpoint - Geely Automobile reported a strong performance in the first half of 2023, with significant growth in revenue and a notable increase in core profit, despite a decline in net profit attributable to shareholders [1][2][4]. Financial Performance - Geely's revenue exceeded 150 billion yuan, reaching 150.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 9.29 billion yuan, down 14% year-on-year [1]. - Core net profit, excluding foreign exchange gains and losses, was 6.66 billion yuan, up 102% year-on-year [1]. - Gross profit increased to 24.7 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 16.4% [1]. - Total cash level rose to 58.8 billion yuan [1]. Sales Performance - Geely sold 1.409 million vehicles in the first half of the year, a 47% increase, with a market share surpassing 10% for the first time [2][4]. - New energy vehicle (NEV) sales surged to approximately 725,000 units, a 126% increase, with a domestic market penetration rate of 51% [2][4]. - The Galaxy series performed exceptionally well, with sales of about 548,000 units, up 232% [4]. - The company adjusted its annual sales target from 2.71 million to 3 million units, achieving 54.9% of the new target by the end of July [4]. Strategic Developments - Geely is advancing its "Return to One Geely" strategy, focusing on resource integration and operational efficiency, resulting in a decrease in sales and administrative expense ratios by 16% and 26%, respectively [5][9]. - The merger between Zeekr and Lynk & Co is expected to enhance financial performance and operational synergies, with Zeekr achieving operational profit for the first time in Q2 [5][9]. - The merger aims to strengthen Geely's competitiveness in the smart new energy sector, covering various powertrain forms and market segments [9][10]. Challenges and Areas for Improvement - Geely faces challenges in overseas markets, with export sales declining by 8% to over 180,000 units, despite a 146% increase in NEV exports [11][12]. - The average sales revenue per vehicle decreased by 1.4 million yuan to 96,000 yuan, and the gross margin slightly fell by 0.3 percentage points to 16.4% [13]. - Brand building remains a challenge, with a need for improved user experience and customer engagement [14].

Core Insights - Geely Automobile reported a strong sales growth in the first half of the year, with a significant increase in core net profit attributable to shareholders, which rose by 102% year-on-year to 6.66 billion yuan [1] - The company achieved a rapid increase in core net profit margin, driven by improved profitability per vehicle [1] - The launch of the Galaxy E5 in August 2024 has positively impacted the performance of the Galaxy brand, marking the beginning of a comprehensive profitability cycle for new energy vehicles [1] Financial Performance - Core net profit attributable to shareholders reached 6.66 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 102% [1] - The core net profit per vehicle increased by 37% year-on-year, while the core net profit margin saw a rise of 57% [1] - The company experienced a significant reduction in expense ratio, contributing to the overall improvement in profitability [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Geely Automobile [4][7] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from marketing reforms and new vehicle launches, which will enhance sales market share [2][11] - The forecasted EPS for 2025-2027 is 1.50, 1.76, and 2.13 RMB respectively, with a target price set at 22.50 RMB or 24.70 HKD [4][7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2023A to 2027E are 179,204 million, 240,194 million, 319,444 million, 381,363 million, and 442,685 million RMB, reflecting growth rates of 21.1%, 34.0%, 33.0%, 19.4%, and 16.1% respectively [6][12] - Operating profit is expected to grow from 3,806 million RMB in 2023A to 20,314 million RMB in 2027E, with a significant increase of 100.8% in 2024A [6][12] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 5,308 million RMB in 2023A, increasing to 21,451 million RMB by 2027E, with a notable growth of 213.3% in 2024A [6][12] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 15.3% in 2023A to 16.7% in 2027E, while the net margin is projected to stabilize around 4.7% to 4.8% during the same period [6][12] Market Position and Sales Performance - In July, Geely's total sales reached 237,700 units, a year-on-year increase of 57.7%, with new energy vehicle sales growing by 120.4% [11] - The company's market share is expected to continue rising, with a reported market share of approximately 11% in the first half of 2025, an increase of nearly 3 percentage points year-on-year [11] - The Galaxy series is showing strong sales performance, with July sales of 95,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 469.0% [11]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [9][55]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant shift in the automotive sales structure, with the proportion of vehicles priced above 200,000 yuan declining to 21% in the first five months of 2025, down 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [9][10]. - The report suggests that while competition has driven down vehicle prices, consumer preferences are shifting towards larger vehicles, indicating a trend of "cars becoming larger but cheaper" [10][9]. - The report anticipates a strong market performance in the second half of the year, despite the traditional off-season in July and August, due to factors such as reduced price war risks and inventory adjustments [10][9]. Summary by Sections Sales by Price Range - The report provides detailed analysis of sales trends across various price ranges, indicating that: - The 0-10 million yuan segment saw a slight increase in market share to 32.7%, up 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [10]. - The 10-15 million yuan segment increased to 33.8%, up 4.4 percentage points year-on-year, driven by models like Qin L and Galaxy E5 [10]. - The 15-20 million yuan segment decreased to 12.2%, down 2.6 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by price adjustments of models like Sea Leopard and Accord [10]. - The 20-25 million yuan segment increased to 9.1%, up 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, supported by consumption upgrades and electric vehicle growth [10]. - The 30-40 million yuan segment saw a decline to 6%, down 2.2 percentage points year-on-year [10]. Sales by Vehicle Class - The report categorizes vehicle sales by class, revealing: - In the 0-20 million yuan category, A-class vehicles' market share decreased to 38%, while B-class vehicles increased to 37% [10]. - In the 20 million yuan and above category, C-class vehicles gained market share to 48.9%, while A and B-class vehicles saw declines [10]. - The overall market dynamics indicate a shift towards larger vehicle classes, with a notable increase in the C-class segment [10]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies like Jianghuai Automobile, which are expected to perform well in terms of volume and profitability [9]. - It suggests monitoring new models from companies like Li Auto and Xiaomi, as well as traditional automakers like SAIC and Great Wall, which are anticipated to reach profitability this year [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article provides an overview of new vehicle models set to launch in July 2025, detailing specifications, pricing, and market segments for various manufacturers, highlighting the competitive landscape in the automotive industry. Group 1: Beijing Off-road Vehicle - Manufacturer: Beijing Off-road Vehicle - Model: BJ40 - Launch Date: July 19, 2025 - Market Segment: A SUV - Engineering Change Scale: MCE1 - MSRP Range: 149,900 - 159,900 CNY - Engine/Transmission: Diesel 2.0T / TIP8, Gasoline 2.0T / TIP8 - Dimensions: 4,790 mm (L) x 1,940 mm (W) x 1,929 mm (H) - Wheelbase: 2,760 mm - Power/Torque: Diesel 120 kW / 400 N·m, Gasoline 180 kW / 395 N·m [6][5][3] Group 2: SAIC-GM-Wuling - Manufacturer: SAIC-GM-Wuling - Model: Wuling Xingchi - Launch Date: July 22, 2025 - Market Segment: AO SUV - Engineering Change Scale: MCE1 - MSRP Range: 56,800 - 71,800 CNY - Engine/Transmission: 1.5L / 6MT, 1.5L / CVT - Dimensions: 4,350 mm (L) x 1,750 mm (W) x 1,610 mm (H) - Wheelbase: 2,550 mm - Power: 73 kW / 143 N·m [14][13][11] Group 3: Geely Automobile - Manufacturer: Geely Automobile - Model: Lynk & Co Z20 - Launch Date: July 22, 2025 - Market Segment: A SUV - Engineering Change Scale: NM - MSRP Range: 109,900 - 121,900 CNY - Engine/Transmission: Pure Electric / EVT - Dimensions: 4,460 mm (L) x 1,845 mm (W) x 1,573 mm (H) - Wheelbase: 2,755 mm - Power/Torque: 175 kW / 300 N·m - Battery Capacity: 51.2 kWh - Electric Range: 430 km (CLTC) [22][21][19] Group 4: Geely Galaxy - Manufacturer: Geely Automobile - Model: Galaxy E5 - Launch Date: July 24, 2025 - Market Segment: A SUV - Engineering Change Scale: MCE1 - MSRP Range: 109,800 - 145,800 CNY - Engine/Transmission: Pure Electric / EVT - Dimensions: 4,615 mm (L) x 1,901 mm (W) x 1,670 mm (H) - Wheelbase: 2,750 mm - Power: 160 kW / 320 N·m - Battery Capacity: 60.22 / 68.39 kWh - Electric Range: 530 / 610 km (CLTC) [30][29][27] Group 5: Leap Motor - Manufacturer: Leap Motor - Model: B01 - Launch Date: July 24, 2025 - Market Segment: A NB - Engineering Change Scale: NP - MSRP Range: 89,800 - 119,800 CNY - Engine/Transmission: Pure Electric / EVT - Dimensions: 4,770 mm (L) x 1,880 mm (W) x 1,490 mm (H) - Wheelbase: 2,735 mm - Power/Torque: 100 kW / 175 N·m, 132 kW / 175 N·m - Battery Capacity: 43.9 / 56.2 / 67.1 kWh - Electric Range: 430 / 550 / 650 km (CLTC) [38][37][35] Group 6: BYD - Manufacturer: BYD - Model: Sea Lion 06 New Energy - Launch Date: July 24, 2025 - Market Segment: B SUV - Engineering Change Scale: NP - MSRP Range: 139,800 - 163,800 CNY - Engine/Transmission: Plug-in Hybrid 1.5L / E-CVT, Pure Electric / EVT - Dimensions: 4,810 mm (L) x 1,920 mm (W) x 1,675 mm (H) - Wheelbase: 2,820 mm - Power/Torque: Plug-in: 74 kW / 126 N·m (engine), 160 kW / 260 N·m (motor) - Battery Capacity: Plug-in: 18.3 / 26.6 kWh, Pure Electric: 65.28 / 78.72 kWh - Electric Range: Plug-in: 121 / 170 km (CLTC), Pure Electric: 520 / 605 km (CLTC) [46][45][43]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to maintain its cost advantages in vehicle manufacturing, with brand integration driving operational efficiency. The forecasted revenue for 2025-2027 is CNY 336.7 billion, CNY 368.5 billion, and CNY 395.6 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 40%, 10%, and 7% respectively. The net profit forecast for the same period is CNY 15.2 billion, CNY 17.8 billion, and CNY 21.7 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of -8%, 17%, and 22% respectively. The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 9.6, 8.3, and 6.8 for 2025-2027 [7][10]. Summary by Sections 1. New Energy Acceleration and Strategic Transformation - The company has entered the 4.0 era of vehicle manufacturing, focusing on new energy and high-end models. The brand matrix includes four major brands: Geely, Galaxy, Zeekr, and Lynk & Co, covering various market segments and energy types [19][20][22]. 2. Galaxy: Platformization Ensures Cost-Effectiveness - The GEA architecture is designed for new energy vehicles, enhancing safety and performance. The Galaxy brand has seen significant sales growth, with models like E5 and Star Wish achieving monthly sales exceeding 10,000 units [36][44]. 3. Zeekr Technology: Balanced Product Strength - Zeekr's SEA architecture supports a wide range of vehicle types, from sedans to SUVs. The brand has successfully launched models that cater to both high-end and mainstream markets, establishing a strong brand presence [52][57]. 4. Oil Vehicles: Competitive Pricing Maintained - The main brand continues to offer competitive pricing in the oil vehicle segment, contributing to stable revenue and profit generation. The company is also expanding its export capabilities, leveraging its global production footprint [9][10][25]. 5. Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - The company’s revenue and net profit forecasts indicate a strong growth trajectory, with a projected revenue of CNY 336.7 billion in 2025 and a net profit of CNY 15.2 billion. The gross margin is expected to improve gradually, reflecting operational efficiencies from brand integration [10][25].

Core Viewpoint - Geely Automobile has shown impressive growth in revenue and net profit, yet its market valuation remains low compared to competitors, raising questions about its future potential and challenges in the automotive industry [3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Geely reported revenue of 72.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25%, and a net profit of 2.28 billion, excluding 3.59 billion in other income, representing a 134% increase [3]. - The company delivered 704,000 vehicles in the quarter, marking a 47.6% year-on-year growth [3]. - Geely's market valuation is under pressure, with a P/E ratio of less than 10, while some competitors have P/E ratios close to 30 [3]. Group 2: Sales Growth - Geely's sales target for 2023 was 1.65 million vehicles, with actual sales reaching nearly 1.69 million, achieving its goal [7]. - For 2024, Geely set a sales target of 1.9 million vehicles, and by mid-year, it had already surpassed 50% of this target [7]. - In the first five months of 2025, Geely's cumulative sales reached 1.173 million vehicles, a 48.6% increase year-on-year, which is 85% of BYD's sales in the same period [9]. Group 3: New Energy Vehicle Strategy - Geely's new energy vehicle (NEV) sales have seen significant growth, with a penetration rate approaching 50% by Q1 2025 [11][16]. - In 2022, NEV sales reached 354,000 units, accounting for 24.7% of total sales, and this figure increased to 28% in 2023 [13]. - The company has adopted a "two-legged" approach to NEVs, focusing on both pure electric and plug-in hybrid models [17]. Group 4: ZEEKR and Lynk & Co - ZEEKR, Geely's premium electric vehicle brand, has faced challenges, with sales growth slowing down significantly in Q1 2025 [35][36]. - Geely acquired 51% of Lynk & Co to bolster its competitive position in the market, as Lynk's sales also showed modest growth [38]. - ZEEKR's sales in 2024 were projected to reach 222,000 units, but the brand's performance has been inconsistent [35][36]. Group 5: New Product Lines - The Galaxy series, launched in 2023, has become a key driver of Geely's sales growth, with significant contributions to total sales in 2024 and early 2025 [45][48][50]. - The Galaxy brand focuses on long-range pure electric and plug-in hybrid models, targeting the 100,000 to 200,000 yuan price range [45]. Group 6: Capital Operations - Geely's capital operations are highlighted by significant income from the sale of subsidiaries, which accounted for 54.7% of net profit in 2024 [51]. - The company has shown a strong ability to leverage its assets for financial gain, indicating robust capital management strategies [51].