Investment Highlights - The automotive market began to show an upward trend in 2020 despite the pandemic, primarily due to a year-on-year increase in industry sales and a significant turning point in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs), which led to a notable increase in the market share of domestic brands [2][26] - The core turning point for NEV penetration was driven by the localization of Tesla, with the Model 3 quickly becoming a best-seller, and improvements in the economic viability of the supply chain leading to a diverse supply [2][36] Historical Index Trends - In May 2021, the electric vehicle logic remained strong with a penetration rate of about 10%, and demand did not weaken despite a chip shortage that began in early 2021. The market anticipated a gradual easing of supply issues by July-August [3][45] - By May 2022, the penetration rate had increased to approximately 25%, with the resumption of production in lockdown areas and the implementation of tax reduction policies, which contributed to an upward trend in the index [3][48] - In February 2024, a shift in supply-demand dynamics occurred, leading to a price war initiated by Tesla's significant price cuts. The market began to rebound, with BYD's price reduction strategy proving effective [4][51] Profitability and Valuation Changes - The profitability of the automotive sector under the NEV trend has not significantly improved compared to the traditional fuel vehicle era, as selling NEVs has not altered the industry's business model, which remains rooted in manufacturing logic [5][56] - The valuation center for the automotive sector has shifted upward, with the price-to-sales (PS) ratio moving from a maximum of 2x during the fuel vehicle era to a current center of 1x, driven by increased market share and high-end breakthroughs of domestic brands [5][57] Competitive Factors in the NEV Era - The competition among automotive companies is characterized by a focus on hard power in the early stages, with soft power becoming more relevant later. The core competitive factors have evolved through different phases, including supply chain integration, electric vehicle technology, and marketing capabilities [6][60] - The first phase (2021-2022) emphasized supply chain advantages, while the second phase (2023) shifted towards electric vehicle technology and product definition capabilities, leading to a price war [6][60] - By 2025, the growth rate of NEV penetration is expected to slow down, with the main competitive logic focusing on imitating and surpassing leading NEV companies [7][60] Stock Performance Review - A review of stock performance from 2020 to 2025 indicates that early in the NEV development phase, the market had high expectations for leading companies from the previous cycle, while later periods required identifying emerging players based on changing competitive factors [8][20] - Notable stock performances include Seres as a tenfold stock, Jianghuai with an eightfold increase, and BYD with a fivefold increase, highlighting the importance of recognizing industry trends and selecting the best-performing stocks [8][20]

Company Performance - In 2025, the company achieved passenger car sales of 3,024,567 units, a year-on-year increase of 39%, exceeding the original target of 3 million units [1] - By brand, sales were 2,449,939 units for the main brand, 224,133 units for Zeekr, and 350,495 units for Lynk & Co, with year-on-year growth of 47%, 1%, and 23% respectively [1] - New energy vehicle sales increased by 90% to 1,687,767 units, accounting for 55.8% of total sales, up 15 percentage points [1] Future Sales Targets - The company set a sales target of 3.45 million units for 2026, representing a year-on-year increase of 14%, with new energy vehicle sales expected to rise by 32% to 2.22 million units [2] - Sales targets for 2026 by brand are 2.75 million units for Geely, 300,000 units for Zeekr, and 400,000 units for Lynk & Co [2] Product Strategy and Profitability - The company is expanding its product matrix, with new models such as the Galaxy E5, A7, and Xingyao 7 aimed at the mainstream market, and six-seat SUVs like Zeekr 9X and Lynk & Co 900 [2] - The integration of Geely, Zeekr, and Lynk & Co is expected to enhance production management synergies and improve profitability [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been raised by 3.2% and 8.9% to 17.5 billion yuan and 21.5 billion yuan respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 net profit at 24.9 billion yuan [2] - The current stock price corresponds to price-to-earnings ratios of 10.4x for 2025, 8.3x for 2026, and 7.0x for 2027, with a target price of 26.00 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 42.9% [2]

Core Insights - Geely's sales in 2026 exceeded 3.02 million units, marking a 39% year-on-year increase, with over half being new energy vehicles, which surged by 90% to 1.69 million units [2][4] - The company achieved a revenue of 239.5 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a 26% increase, and a core net profit of 10.62 billion yuan, up 59% [2][7] - Geely has entered the "3 million club" of global automakers, alongside giants like Toyota and Volkswagen, securing a spot among the top ten global car manufacturers [2] Step One: Rapid Electrification Transformation - Geely's strategic focus on electrification has allowed it to thrive amid fierce competition, achieving a new energy penetration rate of 56% by 2025 [4][5] - The Galaxy brand has seen significant success, with annual sales reaching 1.24 million units, a 150% increase, and the Galaxy M9 becoming a key player in the mid-to-high-end market [4][5] - Geely's traditional fuel vehicle sales also grew by 3%, demonstrating a balanced approach to maintaining its core business while pushing for new energy growth [5] Step Two: Strategic Integration of "One Geely" - Geely completed the privatization and merger of Zeekr, enhancing resource synergy across R&D, procurement, and manufacturing, which is expected to lower costs and improve efficiency [7][8] - The merger is seen as a strategic move to consolidate efforts in the smart electric vehicle sector, allowing for better resource allocation and market positioning [8][9] - The company's financial performance reflects this integration, with Q3 2025 revenue reaching 89.2 billion yuan, a 27% increase, and core net profit growing by 19% [7][8] Step Three: Full-Scale AI Integration - Geely has established itself as a technology company by implementing a comprehensive AI system across all vehicle domains, including architecture, power, chassis, and intelligent driving [10][12] - The launch of the AI-driven H9 system for autonomous driving showcases Geely's commitment to advanced technology, with plans to introduce L3 and L4 functionalities in 2026 [12][15] - The integration of AI technologies into new models, such as the Galaxy M9 and Zeekr 9X, demonstrates Geely's ability to rapidly translate technological advancements into market-ready products [16] Growth Engines for 2026 - Geely aims for a sales target of 3.45 million units in 2026, with 2.22 million from new energy vehicles, supported by the launch of approximately ten new models [17][18] - The company is shifting towards a localized supply chain and manufacturing capabilities in key overseas markets, enhancing its global competitiveness [18][19] - Policy changes favoring higher-value vehicles are expected to benefit Geely, which has focused on high-value products and aims to leverage these changes for growth [19][20] Future Outlook - Geely's market valuation is approaching 200 billion HKD, with over 40 institutions providing positive ratings, indicating a reassessment of its technological capabilities [21][23] - The company is positioned to redefine its identity from a traditional automaker to a technology-driven enterprise, with a complete AI ecosystem in place [22][23] - Geely's strategic focus on integrating technology, enhancing product offerings, and expanding globally suggests a promising trajectory for future growth and innovation [24]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Geely Automobile (00175) is experiencing an upward product cycle and multi-brand collaboration, leading to an increase in profitability, with net profit estimates for 2025 and 2026 raised by 3.2% and 8.9% to 17.5 billion and 21.5 billion respectively, and a new estimate for 2027 net profit at 24.9 billion [1] - The company announced that it achieved a passenger vehicle sales volume of 3,024,567 units in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 39%, exceeding the original annual sales target of 3 million units [2] - In terms of brand performance, Geely's main brand, Zeekr, and Lynk & Co achieved sales of 2,449,939 units, 224,133 units, and 350,495 units respectively, with year-on-year growth of 47%, 1%, and 23%. New energy vehicle sales increased by 90% to 1,687,767 units, accounting for 55.8% of total sales [3] Group 2 - The company has set a sales target of 3.45 million passenger vehicles for 2026, representing a year-on-year increase of 14%, with new energy vehicle sales expected to grow by 32% to 2.22 million units. The sales targets for Geely, Zeekr, and Lynk & Co are set at 2.75 million, 300,000, and 400,000 units respectively [3] - The report highlights that Geely is gradually improving its product lineup across various price ranges in the new energy sector, with new models such as the Zeekr 9X, Lynk & Co 900, and Galaxy M9 being introduced to fill market gaps, while also expanding its product line in MPV and off-road categories [3] - The report anticipates that as the integration of Geely, Zeekr, and Lynk & Co progresses, the synergies in production management will gradually be realized, coupled with an upward product cycle, which is expected to demonstrate stronger profitability elasticity [3]

文｜祎 依 编辑｜张 坤 在价格战反复上演、技术快速下沉、淘汰压力持续加码的背景下，2025年已经成为过去。 这一年，中国汽车产业没有出现戏剧性的逆转时刻，却在持续的高强度运行中，完成了一次重要过渡：电动化进入普及区间，智能化开始接受安全与责任 的现实检验；企业扩张的冲动被压缩，效率、治理与组织能力被推到更显眼的位置。 一些旧的竞争方式正在失效。一味依赖规模、速度和营销话语，越来越难以支撑长期增长；取而代之的，是对技术边界、产业协同和规则秩序的重新重 视。无论是反内卷治理、国企改革推进，还是出海逻辑与资本路径的变化，这些看似分散的事件，正在共同指向一个事实——中国汽车产业，正在进入一 个更重耐力、也更考验成熟度的阶段。 基于我们的观察，仅以几个关键瞬间，回顾2025年的中国汽车。 反内卷全面启动：中国汽车被拉回规则竞争 但答案不止于反内卷，更在于摒弃同质化竞争 新长安成立，央企改革这堂课有了鲜活新案例 对一个长期强调市场竞争的行业而言，这样的高强度介入并不常见，却并不令人意外。 因为以价格战为代表的内卷式恶性竞争，早已不只是企业之间的博弈问题。价格持续下探，吞噬整车企业利润的同时，也通过账期、压库和成本转嫁， ...

公司电动化转型正在加速，高性价比产品策略取得成效，在各个主流价格区间都有市场认可的产品。公 司汽车业务整合后有望降低采购成本、共享技术，产品整体竞争力有望提升。2026 年汽车补贴延续， 汽车市场有望维持景气度，公司销量增长可期。根据公司11 月18 日公告，公司完成对极氪的私有化 后，将进行股份回购，总金额不超过23 亿港元，预计对股价有提振作用。我们预计公司2025/2026/2027 年净利润分别至170.6/218.5/281.8 亿元，扣除一次性收益的影响， YOY 分别为+80%/+28%/+29% ， EPS 分别为1.59/2.04/2.62 元。当前股价对应P/E 分别为9.6/7.5/5.8 倍，建议"买进"。 机构：群益证券(香港) 研究员：沈嘉婕 结论与建议： 12 月22 日，公司发布公告，宣布完成极氪私有化并于纽交所退市。公司通过发行股份（占70.8%）和 支付现金（占29.2%）完成此项交易。合并后公司汽车业务在研发、营销、采购等方面将进一步整合， 运营效率有望提升。 极氪完成私有化，运营效率有望提升：12 月22 日，公司发布公告，宣布完成极氪私有化并于纽交所退 市，极氪将成为 ...

群益证券主要观点如下： 公司电动化转型正在加速，高性价比产品策略取得成效，在各个主流价格区间都有市场认可的产品 公司汽车业务整合后有望降低采购成本、共享技术，产品整体竞争力有望提升。2026年汽车补贴延续， 汽车市场有望维持景气度，公司销量增长可期。根据公司11月18日公告，公司完成对极氪的私有化后， 将进行股份回购，总金额不超过23亿港元，预计对股价有提振作用。该行预计公司2025/2026/2027年净 利润分别至170.6/218.5/281.8亿元，扣除一次性收益的影响，YOY分别为+80%/+28%/+29%，EPS分别为 1.59/2.04/2.62元。当前股价对应P/E分别为9.6/7.5/5.8倍，建议"买进"。 群益证券发布研报称，12月22日，吉利汽车(00175)发布公告，宣布完成极氪私有化并于纽交所退市。 公司通过发行股份(占70.8%)和支付现金(占29.2%)完成此项交易。合并后公司汽车业务在研发、营销、 采购等方面将进一步整合，运营效率有望提升。建议买进。 公司电动化加速，2026年产品矩阵将进一步完善 2025年公司电动化进程加速，1-11月公司累计销售汽车278.78万辆，Y ...

Core Viewpoint - Geely Automobile has completed the privatization of Zeekr and will delist from the New York Stock Exchange, aiming to enhance operational efficiency through integration of its automotive business [1][3] Group 1: Privatization and Integration - The privatization of Zeekr was completed on December 22, with approximately 70.8% of shareholders opting for stock exchange and 29.2% for cash compensation, resulting in a cash payment of $701 million [1][3] - Following the merger, the company expects to reduce R&D investment by 10% to 20%, lower BOM costs by 5% to 8%, and improve capacity utilization by 3% to 5% [3] Group 2: Electric Vehicle Strategy - The company is accelerating its electrification process, with total vehicle sales reaching 2.7878 million units from January to November, a year-on-year increase of 41.8%, and new energy vehicle sales reaching 1.5335 million units, up 97% [4] - The company plans to launch multiple new models in 2026, including three SUVs and two sedans under the Galaxy brand, and aims to strengthen its export of new energy vehicles, expecting a 50% year-on-year increase [4] Group 3: Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 17.06 billion, 21.85 billion, and 28.18 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 80%, 28%, and 29% [2][5] - The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 9.6, 7.5, and 5.8 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with a recommendation to "buy" [2][5]

Core Insights - Great Wall Motors' Ora brand has launched the new A-class pure electric SUV, Ora 5, with a retail price range of 99,800 to 133,800 yuan, and a limited-time trade-in price starting at 91,800 yuan [1] - The Ora brand, established in August 2018, targets female consumers and has previously achieved stable monthly sales of over 10,000 units in 2021, but has faced challenges due to rising battery costs and intense market competition [1] - The new Ora 5 marks a strategic shift for the brand, moving away from the "cat series" naming convention and focusing on a "brand + number" naming system, while also broadening its target audience beyond just female consumers [1] Market Positioning - The Ora 5 is the first SUV model for the Ora brand, entering the competitive A-class SUV market, which is favored by consumers [2] - In the first 11 months of this year, the market share for Chinese brand sedans, SUVs, and MPVs was 64%, 73.4%, and 68.6% respectively, indicating a strong preference for SUVs [2] - The Ora 5 will compete directly with popular models such as BYD Yuan UP, Galaxy E5, and BYD Song Pro DM, which dominated the sales rankings in the 80,000 to 120,000 yuan price range [2] Product Features - The Ora 5 is equipped with a 10.25-inch instrument panel and a 15.6-inch central control screen, featuring the Coffee OS vehicle system and DeepSeek model for advanced functionalities [3] - It includes the third-generation Coffee Pilot Ultra driving assistance system, enabling city navigation without relying on high-precision maps, which is a key selling point [3] - Although the initial launch is for the pure electric version, there are plans to introduce other powertrain options in the future, reflecting a shift from the brand's previous focus solely on electric vehicles [3]

Core Insights - Great Wall Motors' Ora brand has launched the new A-class pure electric SUV, Ora 5, with a retail price range of 99,800 to 133,800 yuan, and a limited-time trade-in price starting at 91,800 yuan [2] - The Ora brand, established in August 2018, targets female consumers and has previously achieved stable monthly sales of over 10,000 units in 2021, but faced challenges due to rising battery costs and market competition [2][3] - The new Ora 5 marks a strategic shift for the brand, moving away from the "cat series" naming convention and focusing on a broader market appeal [2] Market Positioning - The Ora 5 is the first SUV model for the Ora brand, entering the competitive A-class SUV market, which is favored by consumers [3] - In the first 11 months of this year, the market share for Chinese brand sedans, SUVs, and MPVs was 64%, 73.4%, and 68.6% respectively, indicating a strong preference for SUVs [3] - The Ora 5 will compete directly with popular models such as BYD Yuan UP, Galaxy E5, and BYD Song Pro DM, which dominated the sales rankings in the 80,000 to 120,000 yuan segment [3] Product Features - The Ora 5 is equipped with a 10.25-inch instrument panel and a 15.6-inch central control screen, featuring the Coffee OS vehicle system and advanced functionalities like dual-zone voice recognition and remote control via mobile apps [4] - It includes the third-generation Coffee Pilot Ultra driving assistance system, enabling urban navigation without relying on high-precision maps, which is a key selling point [4] - Currently, only the pure electric version of the Ora 5 is available, but plans for additional powertrain options are in place, indicating a shift from the brand's previous focus solely on electric vehicles [4][5] Strategic Developments - The Ora 5 is the first mass-produced vehicle from Great Wall Motors' new platform, which aims for a multi-powertrain and multi-category approach [5] - The brand has initiated independent channel recruitment, suggesting a strategic move to enhance its market presence [5]