Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The real estate market is currently experiencing a downturn, particularly in first-tier cities where second-hand housing prices have fallen more than the national average, negatively impacting market confidence [1][2][4] - Despite a stable overall performance in the first half of 2025, prices have accelerated downward since the third quarter, with a significant decline in sales and investment data in October [2][3] Key Points and Arguments Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, the real estate market was stable, with good sales of new and second-hand homes, but began to decline in the third quarter [3] - The average price drop in second-hand homes across 70 cities has raised concerns about market confidence [4] Policy Environment - Administrative easing policies have not fully reversed the market downturn; the main expectation is a reduction in mortgage rates [5] - The LPR (Loan Prime Rate) saw only a slight decrease in 2025, limiting banks' ability to lower rates further due to net interest margin pressures [5] - There are discussions about implementing fiscal subsidies to alleviate the burden of mortgage loans, which could cost between 50 to 60 billion yuan annually [6] Stock Market Outlook - There is a relatively optimistic outlook for the real estate stock market, as policy advancements could improve market liquidity and company performance [7] - Companies with low debt pressure, ample cash flow, and attractive valuations are recommended for investment, particularly in Hong Kong real estate and commercial properties [7] Company-Specific Insights: Beike (贝壳找房) - Beike's revenue is affected by the price decline in first-tier cities, but its brokerage business is expected to show resilience as market demand recovers [8] - The company anticipates a net profit increase from approximately 5 billion yuan in 2025 to 7 billion yuan in 2026, driven by improved efficiency, AI technology application, and profit release from home decoration and rental businesses [9][11] - Beike's current stock price has significant upside potential, estimated at 40%-50% based on its cash reserves and low P/E ratio [12] Additional Insights Related Sectors - The kitchen appliance and integrated stove sectors are closely tied to the real estate cycle and have faced valuation pressures due to market weakness [13][14] - The central air conditioning sector is also linked to real estate, with potential for valuation recovery if market expectations shift [15] - White and black goods sectors are less correlated with real estate cycles, relying more on their own industry dynamics [16] Building Materials Market - The building materials industry has seen fluctuations in volume and price since 2021, with signs of stabilization in certain segments like coatings [17][18] - Future demand in the building materials sector is expected to decline but at a slower rate, with potential price stabilization due to supply-side adjustments [19] - Investment opportunities are seen in the renovation of existing homes, particularly in coatings and board materials, with a projected 5% compound annual growth rate in renovation area from 2025 to 2026 [21] Risk Assessment - Risks related to accounts receivable and asset impairment from the real estate sector have been effectively controlled, although attention is needed for potential asset devaluation from unsold properties [20] Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies with strong market positions and potential for recovery, such as Beike, and sectors like coatings and engineering materials that are less affected by the real estate downturn [22][24]

丨证券研究报告丨 ——房地产行业周度观点更新 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 基于高质量发展和宏观审慎管理，产业政策进一步放松的必要性逐步提高。常规层面，放松限 购、适度降息、税费优惠等环节仍有空间，实际利率角度，当前房贷利率仍偏高，尤其公积金 利率有较大优化余地。超常规层面，一是房贷利率深度打折，当前折扣水平较 2008-2009 年仍 有较大差距，鉴于银行息差压力的约束，可能需要财政或央行结构性工具的额外补贴；二是收 储或旧改等领域进一步发力。常规层面的放松可以阶段性缓释下行压力，但超常规层面的发力 可以部分解决行业深层次矛盾，低利率是行业结构性企稳的必要条件，剩下的是宏观问题。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 刘义 侯兆熔 SAC：S0490520040001 SAC：S0490525060001 SFC：BUV416 行业研究丨行业周报丨房地产 [Table_Title] 如何看待未来政策空间？ 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 如何看待未来政策空间？ 2] ——房地产行业周度观点更新 [T ...

Core Insights - The total sales of the top 100 real estate companies in China for the first ten months of 2025 reached 289.67 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 16.3%, with the decline rate widening by 4.1 percentage points compared to the first nine months of the year [1] - The sales performance in October showed a slight month-on-month recovery, with a total sales amount of 253 billion yuan, reflecting a 0.1% increase from the previous month [6] Group 1: Sales Performance by Company Tier - The average sales for the top 10 real estate companies was 143.09 billion yuan, down 15.0% year-on-year [4] - The average sales for companies ranked 11 to 30 was 35.51 billion yuan, down 17.8% year-on-year [4] - The average sales for companies ranked 31 to 50 was 17.21 billion yuan, down 16.6% year-on-year [4] Group 2: Company Breakdown - There are 7 companies in the 100 billion yuan and above tier, with sales figures of 222.7 billion yuan, 201.1 billion yuan, 189.1 billion yuan, 169.6 billion yuan, 156.0 billion yuan, 114.6 billion yuan, and 106.5 billion yuan respectively [4] - The second tier (500-1000 billion yuan) has 7 companies, down 2 from the previous year, with sales figures of 92.6 billion yuan, 92.1 billion yuan, 86.3 billion yuan, 68.7 billion yuan, 62.1 billion yuan, 55.7 billion yuan, and 55.3 billion yuan respectively [4] - The third tier (300-500 billion yuan) has 6 companies, down 3 from the previous year, with sales figures of 43.8 billion yuan, 43.5 billion yuan, 41.5 billion yuan, 33.9 billion yuan, and 32.7 billion yuan respectively [4] Group 3: Market Trends - In October, first-tier cities recorded a total transaction volume of 1.68 million square meters, remaining flat month-on-month but down 41% year-on-year [6] - The total transaction volume in 26 second and third-tier cities was 7.91 million square meters, with a slight month-on-month increase of 1% but a year-on-year decline of 35% [6] - The city of Chengdu led in monthly transactions with 800,000 square meters, followed by Qingdao, Wuhan, and Xi'an [6] Group 4: Policy Implications - The recent "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes boosting consumption and may lead to the relaxation of housing purchase restrictions in major cities [7] - The industry anticipates that as year-end performance targets approach, supply in key cities may improve, providing some support to the market [7] - A more comprehensive approach from the central government is needed to stabilize the industry and break the negative cycle [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for both the real estate and building materials sectors [2][4]. Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing a decline, with new residential sales area down 4.7% and sales value down 7.3% year-on-year for the first eight months of 2025. The decline in sales has accelerated, indicating a weakening fundamental outlook [4][25]. - The building materials sector is expected to see improved supply-demand dynamics due to government policies aimed at stabilizing growth, including restrictions on new capacity for cement and flat glass [4][47]. Summary by Sections Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector has seen a significant drop in sales, with August figures showing a year-on-year decrease of 10.98% in sales area and 14.76% in sales value. Prices in first, second, and third-tier cities have also declined [4][25]. - Policy adjustments in Shanghai aim to stimulate the market by exempting certain homebuyers from property tax, indicating a trend towards loosening regulations [4][23]. - Recommended companies for investment include Poly Developments (600048), Binjiang Group (002244), and China Merchants Shekou (001979) due to their stable operations and focus on first and second-tier cities [4][25]. Building Materials Sector - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a "Stabilization Growth Work Plan" for the building materials industry, prohibiting new capacity for cement and flat glass, which is expected to alleviate supply-demand conflicts [4][47]. - Cement demand is anticipated to recover due to urban renewal projects and infrastructure construction, with companies like Conch Cement (600585), Taipai Group (002233), and Huaxin Cement (600801) being highlighted for their investment potential [4][47]. - The glass industry is currently facing challenges, but opportunities may arise in the fiberglass sector due to growth in emerging fields such as wind power and electric vehicles, with China Jushi (600176) recommended for investment [4][49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamental situation of pulp is weak. Although there are positive factors from the real - estate policy on pulp prices, the current pulp fundamentals remain pessimistic, which may prevent macro - drivers from effectively affecting pulp prices [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Spot Market Changes - The downstream paper industry's cost - reduction and efficiency - improvement efforts resist pulp price increases. The average market prices of imported hardwood pulp and natural pulp have declined, while the average market price of imported chemi - mechanical pulp remains stable [4]. - Real - estate policies have increased market expectations of policy relaxation, and the real - estate stock market is active. Since the domestic real - estate market has a leading relationship with pulp prices and real - estate sales area has been growing steadily for 7 months, this is a significant positive for SP single - side [4][5]. - In August, the import value of domestic pulp decreased for two consecutive months to $1.545 billion, and in July, the import value of US pulp increased to $378 million, with a combined (staggered - month) total of $1.923 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 18.5%, the lowest decline since February 2024. As of July, the total export value of paper products from Japan, South Korea, and Brazil decreased for three consecutive months, which is negative for SP single - side [18]. - Since September, the inventory of SHFE SP has decreased for six consecutive months, while the pulp inventory in Qingdao Port has increased for three consecutive months, and that in Changshu Port has decreased for two consecutive months. The total inventory has a year - on - year decrease of 0.2% but a marginal increase, which is negative for SP single - side [20]. - As of July, Canada's trade deficit increased marginally, which is slightly positive for SP single - side. As of August, the domestic total import and export volume increased year - on - year, but the growth rate narrowed for two consecutive months, which is slightly negative for SP single - side [29]. - The stock market indices such as the Small and Medium 100 Index, CSI 1000 Index, and Galaxy CSI Index have risen, and the ChinaBond New Composite Index has declined for two consecutive months, which is positive for SP single - side [34]. - As of August, the import of hardwood chips increased, while the import of hardwood pulp decreased. The import of softwood chips and softwood pulp decreased. The consumption of hardwood pulp and softwood pulp increased, with the consumption ratio showing a slight negative impact on the spread between hardwood and softwood pulp [43]. - As of July, the domestic paper - making industry's production of machine - made paper and paperboard decreased, and the overall production growth rate slowed down, which is significantly negative for SP single - side [49]. - As of July, the domestic paper - making industry's finished - product inventory increased marginally, which is positive for SP single - side, while the monthly average profit - loss difference decreased marginally, which is negative for SP single - side [56]. - The European softwood pulp inventory and consumption increased, and the inventory - to - sales ratio increased, which is negative for SP single - side. The domestic import of softwood chips and softwood pulp decreased, but the total long - fiber import increased marginally, which is significantly negative for SP single - side [61].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4][6]. Core Insights - Shenzhen has followed Beijing and Shanghai in relaxing purchase restrictions, with a more significant impact expected compared to the latter cities [11]. - The overall performance of the real estate sector has lagged behind the broader market, with the Shenwan Real Estate Index down 1.5% this week, ranking 24th among 31 sectors [12]. - New home sales in 30 cities totaled 1.488 million square meters this week, reflecting a 17.9% decrease month-on-month and an 11.2% decrease year-on-year [23]. - The report emphasizes the importance of policy-driven changes in the real estate market, suggesting that the current policy environment is more robust than in previous cycles [4]. Summary by Sections Real Estate Development - Shenzhen's new policy has narrowed the scope of purchase restrictions, with only specific areas remaining under strict limits [11]. - The report anticipates that the marginal effects of Shenzhen's new policy will be more pronounced than those in Beijing and Shanghai [11]. Market Review - The Shenwan Real Estate Index has decreased by 1.5%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.67 percentage points [12]. - A total of 49 stocks in the real estate sector increased in value this week, while 62 stocks declined [12]. New Home and Second-Hand Home Transactions - New home sales in first-tier cities increased by 4.4% month-on-month, while second-tier cities saw a 23.3% decrease [23]. - Second-hand home transactions in 14 sample cities totaled 1.719 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 13.0% [34]. Credit Bonds - Eight credit bonds were issued by real estate companies this week, totaling 8.69 billion yuan, with a net financing amount of -1.24 billion yuan [42]. - The majority of bonds issued were rated AAA, indicating a strong credit quality among issuers [42]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on real estate stocks due to the expected policy-driven recovery and the early-cycle nature of the real estate market [4]. - Recommended companies include major players in both A-shares and H-shares, as well as local state-owned enterprises and property management firms [4].

Core Viewpoint - The new housing policies in Beijing and Shanghai aim to stimulate domestic demand by relaxing purchase restrictions and optimizing loan policies, although the marginal effects may be limited due to the moderate nature of the policies and prior demand releases in 2024 [1][20]. Policy Changes - Beijing's new policy allows eligible families to purchase an unlimited number of homes outside the Fifth Ring Road, while previously they were limited to two [2]. - Shanghai's new policy similarly permits families to buy an unlimited number of homes outside the Outer Ring Road, with adjustments made to local residency requirements [2][18]. Market Response - Following the implementation of the new policies, Beijing saw a slight increase in both new and second-hand home transaction volumes, with new home daily average transactions rising by 9% compared to July [4][10]. - In Shanghai, new home transactions increased by 25% compared to July, indicating a more pronounced recovery in the new home market [11][15]. Transaction Trends - In the first eight months of 2025, Beijing's new residential sales area totaled 3.42 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 6.8%, while Shanghai's new residential sales area was 6.95 million square meters, a slight decline of 4% [10][18]. - The proportion of transactions occurring outside the Fifth Ring Road in Beijing and outside the Outer Ring Road in Shanghai has consistently exceeded 70%, highlighting these areas as key markets for new home sales [19]. Future Outlook - The policies are expected to enhance market activity in peripheral areas, with potential for increased demand from families looking to upgrade their housing [20]. - As the traditional peak sales season approaches, the synchronized rollout of supportive policies in both cities is anticipated to boost market confidence and gradually restore transaction volumes [1][20].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan maintains an "overweight" rating for the real estate industry, anticipating an acceleration in sales and increased discounts from property companies as September marks a traditional marketing peak [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - In August 2025, the top 100 property companies reported a sales amount of 20,708.6 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 13.1%, with the decline rate widening by 0.5 percentage points compared to July 2025 [1] - The top 50 property companies achieved a sales amount of 17,984.8 billion yuan in August 2025, down 12.3% year-on-year, with the decline rate narrowing by 0.03 percentage points from July 2025 [2] - Approximately 30% of the top 100 property companies experienced positive year-on-year sales growth in August 2025, with the highest growth rate recorded by Bangtai Group at 215.5% [3] Group 2: Sales Thresholds - The sales threshold for the top 1-10 property companies decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, from 58.6 billion yuan to 56.1 billion yuan, indicating the smallest decline among the groups [2] - The sales threshold for the top 51-100 property companies saw the largest decline, dropping by 23.9% from 4.6 billion yuan to 3.5 billion yuan [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The report highlights that core first-tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai have introduced favorable policies such as relaxing purchase restrictions, with Shenzhen expected to follow suit [1] - The real estate industry is entering a low season, and the report suggests monitoring the impact of potential interest rate cuts overseas and the easing of domestic monetary policy [1]

Group 1 - In August, the average price of new residential properties in first-tier cities increased by 6.88% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.48% [1] - The average price of new residential properties in second-tier cities rose by 1.64% year-on-year, while third and fourth-tier cities experienced a year-on-year decline of 1.06% [1] - The average price of second-hand residential properties in first-tier cities decreased by 4.17% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decline of 0.55% [1] Group 2 - Recent policy adjustments in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai have relaxed purchase restrictions, allowing eligible buyers to purchase multiple properties outside the city center [2] - The central government has reiterated its goal of stabilizing the real estate market, which is expected to boost market confidence and lead to a series of supportive policies in September [2] - The traditional peak sales season in September and October is anticipated to increase market activity, with developers expected to accelerate the launch of new projects in core cities [2]

Investment Rating - CMOC Group Ltd is rated as HOLD with a target price of HK$10.74 [4][5][6] - RemeGen Co Ltd is rated as HOLD with a target price of HK$90.00 [7][9][10] - Poly Property Service is rated as BUY with a target price of HK$45.65 [12][13][14] Core Insights - CMOC Group Ltd's net profit surged 60% YoY to RMB8.67 billion in 1H25, driven by higher metal prices and reduced expenses [4][6] - RemeGen Co Ltd's revenue reached RMB1.09 billion, a 48% YoY increase, with a narrowing net loss of 42% to RMB450 million, indicating strong drug sales momentum [7][10] - Poly Property Service's revenue grew 6.6% YoY to RMB8.39 billion, with basic property management revenue increasing by 13.1% YoY [12][14] Summary by Sections CMOC Group Ltd - The company experienced a significant profit increase due to rising metal prices and lower interest expenses [4][6] - Earnings are expected to grow by 32% HoH in 2H25, supported by a RMB1.5 billion disposal gain [5][6] - The stock has outperformed the market by 71% in the past three months, leading to a downgrade to HOLD [5][6] RemeGen Co Ltd - The company reported strong revenue growth and a significant reduction in net loss, with expectations of breakeven by 2026 [7][10] - Key catalysts for future growth include data publications and regulatory submissions for its drug candidates [8][9] - The target price reflects anticipated peak sales for its key products in China and overseas [9][11] Poly Property Service - The company’s revenue growth was in line with expectations, with strong performance in core property management services [12][14] - Despite a decline in gross margin for other sectors, community value-added services saw an improvement [13][14] - EPS forecasts for 2026-27 have been increased due to accelerated property management revenue growth [13][14]