研究美国股市图表形态的分析师敲响了警钟，他们担忧近期下跌可能演变为全面回调。 标普500指数（SPX）周一遭遇大幅抛售，自10月28日创下历史高点以来的跌幅扩大至3.2%，这是自2月 至4月暴跌以来，该指数从历史高点回落的最大幅度。这一基准指数139个交易日以来首次收于50日均线 下方，打破了本世纪以来第二长的高于该趋势线的纪录。 该指数还较6725点关口跌超50点，高盛资深交易员李·科珀史密斯（Lee Coppersmith）当日早些时候指 出，这一水平可能导致趋势跟踪量化基金（CTA）从买方转为卖方。 "市场表面之下正发生诸多不利变化，"波托马克基金管理公司（Potomac Fund Management）联合首席 投资官兼投资组合经理丹·鲁索（Dan Russo）表示，"若跌破50日均线的同时，市场广度持续恶化、更 多股票创出新低，情况将更令人担忧，这将预示更多抛盘即将到来。" 与标普500指数一样，纳指（IXIC）同样低于其50日均线，结束了自1995年10月2日结束的187个交易日 以来最长的连续高于50日均线的纪录。 "股市回调已然发生，我认为标普500指数将从当前水平进一步下跌，"万特罗布斯基表 ...

明天强弱分水岭：4015；压力位：3885，3997，4006；支撑位：3954，3946，3936 创指强弱分水岭：3209；压力位：3130，3145，3171；支撑位：3078，3068，3050 中长期态势：11月份周级别强弱分水岭在3920－3950，月级别强弱分水岭在3840－3920。运行在60日线上才能保持牛市开启状态，运行在250 日线上才能避免重回熊市。 大盘收出低开的缩量小阴，中期强势出现疑问，短线空头优势明显。创指收出低开的带量小k，中期强势出现疑问，短线空头优势明显。 前一交易日收盘点评"今天大幅低开后在银行保险护盘带动下，大盘再创了年内新高，其它代表小票的指数都很差，失守了4000点，收盘空头 掌控局面。目前风险大于机会，以防守为主无大错。继续防再攻量能不济。上方4051-4070一带阻力已显，若再失守3980就难免走弱了"。今天 失守了3980，弱势调整已明确，收盘空头掌控局面。无力站回3980就无法排除回试3954-3922的可能性，重新突破3980-4000才有转好可能。突 破4013-4023才有再攻可能。下一个关键时点是周四。操作上，不失3954-3922一带可先搏短；无 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is experiencing significant volatility, driven by concerns over the return on billions of dollars invested in artificial intelligence and high market valuations, leading to a drop in the S&P 500 index to its lowest level in two weeks [1][2]. Market Analysis - The S&P 500 index has seen a decline of 2.5% from its recent peak, with three instances of at least a 0.99% drop in the last six trading days [2]. - The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) has risen to around 20 points, indicating increased market uncertainty [2]. Technical Analysis - Key technical levels are being monitored, with the 50-day moving average at 6665 points identified as a critical support level. A drop below this could signal a significant bearish trend [1][3]. - The next important threshold for technical analysts is the 6700-point level, where a high open interest in options could provide short-term support [3][4]. - The range of 6740-6800 points is considered a significant technical zone for the S&P 500, with 6640 points being a crucial mid-term support level [4]. Corporate Impact - Companies are facing increased layoffs, with the number of announced job cuts reaching the highest level for October in over 20 years, attributed to accelerated cost-cutting related to artificial intelligence [3]. - The "Magnificent Seven" tech index has dropped by 2%, marking the third decline in six trading days, reflecting concerns over the sustainability of high valuations in leading tech stocks [3]. Investor Sentiment - There is a noticeable increase in hedging activities among investors, indicating a growing awareness of market vulnerabilities [4]. - The upcoming earnings report from NVIDIA on November 19 is anticipated to be a key event that could influence market direction [4].

再说地缘政治，全球哪里有火星四溅，资本就知道往黄金跑，回头看看2022年俄乌冲突初期，金价短时间蹿了大约10%，那不是没来由的恐慌性买 盘；下周任何一个地区的紧张升级都会让金价来个即刻反映，反过来要是局势突然和缓，金价也会应声下行，都是资金的短期避险和撤退。 实物需求方面，别只看纸上的数字，印度过节和我们过年那几拨实物买盘是真金白银在动，需求季节性增长对价格有实在推力；矿产供应增量有 限，长期看供给端扛不住明显放松就是金价向上有天然支撑，短期内哪怕一条供应链消息也能挑起波澜。 | 国内现货 | 国际现货 | 国内期货 | 医 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金9999 | 伦敦金现 | 沪金主连 | 细丝 | | 918.00 | 4001.930 | 921.84 | ৰ | | -3.50 -0.38% | -34.590 -0.86% | 3.54 +0.39% | -2.5 | | 4 T+0 | 极速购买黄金9999 | | | | 目 同花顺产业地图 | | | | 技术面也是实打实的看点，国内918元这个区间过去几回都有支撑，国际上4001.93美元附近也是历史压力 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis using tools like the golden ratio line, horizontal line, and daily moving average, the report predicts the likely trends of today's futures main contracts. Specifically, stock index futures will fluctuate and consolidate; gold, silver, copper, glass, soda ash, crude oil, and PTA futures will weakly fluctuate; lithium carbonate and soybean meal futures will strongly fluctuate [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Macro Information and Trading Tips - The US Treasury Secretary threatened to impose tariffs on China if China continues to block rare - earth exports, and China's Foreign Ministry responded that dialogue and cooperation are the right approaches [8]. - China and the EU held export - control dialogue consultations in Brussels, aiming to promote the stability and smoothness of the industrial and supply chains [8]. - China's Ministry of Finance established a Debt Management Department to manage government debt and prevent risks, and emphasized not to increase implicit debt [8]. - China extended the visa - free policy for 45 countries until December 31, 2026, included Sweden in the visa - free list, and resumed group - tour services to Canada [8]. - China's National Immigration Administration announced 10 innovative measures to support high - quality development, covering multiple fields such as talent cross - border flow and customs clearance [9]. - Goldman Sachs' China research team raised its forecasts for China's export growth and real GDP growth, expecting China's exports to grow by 5 - 6% annually in the coming years and lifting the 2025 real GDP growth forecast from 4.9% to 5% [9]. - A Fed governor called for more aggressive interest - rate cuts, stating that the current policy is too restrictive [9]. - Another Fed governor said that each Fed meeting is a real - time decision on monetary policy, and there is a possibility of a rate cut in December depending on new information [9]. - The US Transportation Secretary said that the government might shut down the US aviation system if the federal government "shutdown" endangers aviation safety, and the US lacks 2000 - 3000 air traffic controllers [9]. - As of September, US companies' announced lay - offs approached 950,000, the highest level since 2020, with the government sector being the hardest - hit [10]. - The US October ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, contracting for the eighth consecutive month, and new orders declined for the second consecutive month [10]. - The eurozone's October manufacturing PMI was 50, with new orders stagnant and exports falling for four consecutive months, and German and French manufacturing PMIs remained in the contraction zone [10]. 2. Commodity Futures - Related Information - On November 3, international precious metals closed with mixed results. COMEX gold futures rose 0.43% to $4013.7 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 0.52% to $47.91 per ounce [11]. - On November 3, US crude oil and Brent crude oil main contracts both rose slightly. OPEC+ decided to suspend the planned production increase in Q1 2026, and some institutions raised their oil - price forecasts [11]. - On November 3, London base metals showed mixed performance. LME zinc, aluminum, and lead rose, while tin, copper, and nickel declined [11]. - On November 3, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed down, and the central parity rate rose. The US dollar index rose, and most non - US currencies fell [12]. 3. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook Stock Index Futures - On November 3, the main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures showed different trends, with overall weak rebounds. It is expected that in November 2025, these contracts will have wide - range fluctuations, and on November 4, they will fluctuate and consolidate [12][13][14][16][17]. Treasury Bond Futures - On November 3, the ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures main contracts showed different trends. It is expected that on November 4, both will strongly fluctuate [34][37]. Precious Metal Futures - On November 3, the gold and silver futures main contracts showed small - scale rebounds. It is expected that in November 2025, they will have wide - range fluctuations, and on November 4, they will weakly fluctuate [38][44]. Base Metal Futures - On November 3, copper, aluminum, zinc, and other base metal futures main contracts showed different trends. It is expected that in November 2025, copper, aluminum, and zinc will strongly fluctuate with wide ranges, and on November 4, copper will weakly fluctuate, and aluminum will have wide - range fluctuations, while zinc will strongly fluctuate [47][52][61]. Other Commodity Futures - On November 3, various commodity futures such as lithium carbonate, iron ore, and crude oil showed different trends. It is expected that in November 2025, lithium carbonate, iron ore, and other futures will strongly fluctuate with wide ranges, while glass, soda ash, and crude oil will weakly fluctuate with wide ranges. On November 4, lithium carbonate will strongly fluctuate, and glass, soda ash, and crude oil will weakly fluctuate [69][80][98].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. (603993) experienced a stock price increase of 4.78%, closing at 17.55 yuan on October 29, 2025, with a trading volume of 2.8384 million hands and a total transaction value of 4.911 billion yuan [1] - The stock opened at 16.98 yuan, reached a high of 17.56 yuan, and a low of 16.93 yuan during the trading session [1] - The net inflow of main funds was 466 million yuan, accounting for 9.49% of the total transaction value, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 305 million yuan, representing 6.22% of the total transaction value [1] Group 2 - The technical analysis indicates that Luoyang Molybdenum's stock is in a narrow consolidation pattern, with a clear resistance level at 16.92 yuan and a key support level at 16.53 yuan [3] - The stock price has tested the resistance level multiple times without success, while buying support remains near the support level [3] - Technical indicators are neutral to weak, with short-term moving averages intertwined, not providing a clear trend signal [3]

Market Index Analysis - The major A-share indices in Shanghai and Shenzhen experienced a rise followed by a decline, with most stocks falling and low market sentiment observed. The index struggled to maintain the psychological level of 4000 points, raising questions about whether it can recover on Wednesday [1] Shanghai Composite Index - The Shanghai Composite Index showed a small real body with a long upper shadow and a short lower shadow, indicating significant upward pressure in the short term. The 4000-point level is a crucial psychological and integer barrier. As of yesterday, five effective cycles have been completed, marking a small turning point, suggesting a need to test the five-day moving average. The index is expected to slightly dip and then recover after testing this moving average [4] STAR 50 Index - The STAR 50 Index adjusted as expected, with the closing K-line indicating a low opening that filled the long lower shadow from the previous day, correcting technical flaws. The adjustment is considered normal as it coincides with the fifth effective cycle, which is a turning point. The five-day moving average is rising quickly, and the index is likely to stabilize and rebound on Wednesday. The K-line pattern released a stabilization signal, indicating that the short-term adjustment is nearly complete [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold and silver prices has led to an overbought condition, increasing the pressure for a correction, which pauses the months-long upward trend. Both metals recently reached historical highs, with gold rising approximately 55% year-to-date, driven by central bank purchases, ETF inflows, and heightened demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical and trade tensions [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current decline in gold prices is viewed as a "correction," albeit a significant one, influenced by large institutions taking profits, which triggered a chain reaction of stop-loss orders [3]. - If gold prices fall below $4,000, a larger-scale sell-off may occur, as investors assess the latest developments in U.S.-China relations, which previously elevated safe-haven demand [3]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The short-term resistance levels for gold are identified at $4,165 and $4,195, with recommendations for short positions during the European trading session while maintaining risk management strategies due to recent high volatility [3]. - A detailed trading log indicates various positions taken in gold, with specific entry and exit points, highlighting the active trading strategy employed by market participants [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices, highlighting a peak near $4380 before a slight decline due to geopolitical and economic uncertainties, with current trading around $4220 [2][3] - Gold's market capitalization exceeds $30 trillion, indicating significant global capital inflow into gold as a safe-haven asset amid ongoing trade tensions and economic instability [2][3] - Traders anticipate a 96.8% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meetings, which supports gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset [3][6] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates a significant downward trend in gold prices, with a recent high of $4379 followed by a drop to $4186, suggesting a potential for further declines [4][6] - The article outlines specific trading strategies for gold, recommending short positions around $4275-$4280 and long positions near $4175-$4180, emphasizing the importance of stop-loss measures [6][8] - The analysis reflects a broader sentiment of caution among traders, with a focus on market trends and the necessity of adapting strategies based on real-time market conditions [6][8]

Technical Analysis - Gold prices are currently at a critical resistance area around 4365-70, which has shown significant selling pressure [1] - Multiple tests of this level have failed to break through, forming a potential double top or resistance platform [1] - RSI indicators on hourly and 4-hour charts show bearish divergence, indicating a decrease in upward momentum and a potential need for a technical pullback [1] - A stop-loss is recommended above the recent high at 4380 to effectively manage risk [1] - The first target for a potential downside move is 4340, which is a strong support level and corresponds to the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of the recent upward wave [1] Fundamental Analysis - Recent market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have cooled, with several Fed officials making hawkish comments emphasizing the need for more evidence of inflation decline [1] - This has led to a stabilization and rebound in U.S. Treasury yields, providing support for the U.S. dollar index [1] - Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, putting pressure on gold prices [1] - Despite ongoing geopolitical risks, market risk aversion has not intensified, failing to provide new upward momentum for gold prices [1] - The interplay of subtle fundamental changes and technical resistance increases the likelihood of a price correction for gold at this level [1]