金融专场-2025 研究框架线上培训 摘要 寿险产品不仅是保险合同，更是价值观念的传递，需不断扩展业务范围 以满足客户多样化需求。寿险公司通过并购扩大市场份额、获取客户资 源并提升产品多样性，优化资产负债表，提高资本回报率，实现规模经 济效应。 寿险与财险在承保标的和风险管理上存在显著区别。财险承保物体，风 险评估相对简单；寿险承保人的生命，涉及复杂的人口统计和精算模型， 存在利率风险。寿险销售更侧重于价值观念的传递，而非简单的产品定 价。 保险公司定价逻辑基于成本加成法，包括死亡赔付、运营费用和时间成 本。精算师通过分析历史数据预测未来现金流，并根据预定利率贴现计 算保单现值，死差、费差和利差是定价的关键因素。 中国保险行业经历了三波发展：2013 年重疾险驱动，2015 年代理人考 试取消推动，2020 年后惠民保冲击。惠民保以低成本满足大众需求， 对传统重疾险市场造成冲击，新业务价值断崖式下降。 Q&A 保险公司的定价逻辑主要基于成本加成法。具体来说，一张保单包括三项主要 成本：死亡赔付、运营费用和时间成本（即投资收益率）。在此基础上，公司 会对死亡率、费用和利率进行加成，从而确定最终价格。这就是所谓的 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Life Insurance (02628) maintains its position as the leader in the life insurance sector with a broad customer base, and the company is recommended for "overweight" by the brokerage firm [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, China Life achieved operating revenue of RMB 239.24 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.1% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 6.9% to RMB 40.93 billion during the same period [1] - The weighted average return on equity was 7.83%, an increase of 0.04 percentage points compared to the previous year [1] Group 2: Premium Income - Total premium income for the first half of 2025 reached RMB 525.09 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.3% [2] - First-year regular premium amounted to RMB 81.25 billion, with ten-year and above first-year regular premium accounting for 37.3% of the total [1] - Individual insurance channel premiums totaled RMB 400.45 billion, a 2.6% increase year-on-year, with renewal premiums growing by 10.4% to RMB 326.56 billion [2] Group 3: Sales and New Business Value - The company’s total sales force stood at 641,000 as of the first half of 2025, with individual insurance sales personnel remaining stable at 592,000 [2] - New business value for the first half of 2025 was RMB 285.46 billion, a growth of 20.3% compared to the same period in 2024 [2] Group 4: Investment and Solvency - As of June 30, 2025, total investment assets reached RMB 7.1 trillion, a 7.8% increase from the end of 2024 [2] - Total investment income for the first half of 2025 was RMB 127.51 billion, with an investment return rate of 3.29% [2] - Net investment income was RMB 96.07 billion, yielding a net investment return rate of 2.78% [2]

1、关于新业务价值 2025年上半年，除中信保诚外，所有上市寿险公司新业务价值均实现了两位数增长！上市寿险行业整体增幅达31.3%。具体如下表所示： 先说结论： | 年份 | 中国人 | | | | 平安寿 太保寿 新华保 太平人 人保寿 友邦人 阳光人 | | | | 人保健康 | 中信保 | 合计 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 荒 | 同 | 公 | 公 | 寿 | Pop Sit. | 寿 | 去 | | 诚 | | | 2024H1 | 237 | - 160 | 72 | 39 | 50 | 29 | 49 | 27 | 25 | 21 | 710 | | 2025H1 | 285 | 223 | ેર | 62 | 62 | 50 | 54 | 40 | 38 | 23 | 933 | | 同比变化 | 20.3% | 39.8% | 32.3% | 58.4% | 22.9% | 71.7% | 10.0% | 47.2% | 51.0% | 7.6% | 31.3% ...

Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry is experiencing a significant recovery in new business value, with a year-on-year increase of 31.3% in the first half of 2025, driven by both volume and price growth across various companies [1][16][18]. Summary by Sections New Business Value - In the first half of 2025, all listed life insurance companies, except for CITIC Prudential, achieved double-digit growth in new business value, with the overall industry growth rate reaching 31.3% [1][16]. - The new business value for major companies includes China Life at 28.5 billion yuan (20.3% increase), Ping An Life at 22.3 billion yuan (39.8% increase), and others showing significant growth rates [18]. New Business Value Rate - The new business value rate for most listed life insurance companies increased significantly, with an overall rise of 6.7 percentage points in the first half of 2025 [3][22]. - Notable increases in new business value rates include Ping An Life at 26.1% (up 8.8 percentage points) and China Life at 32.4% (up 9.2 percentage points) [22][24]. New Policy Premiums - The overall new policy premium for listed life insurance companies reached 522.7 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.8% [28]. - However, there was a notable decline in new policy premiums from the agent channel, which dropped by 13.8%, while the bank insurance channel saw a substantial increase of 61.1% [31][39]. Market Dynamics - The insurance sector is transitioning from a "volume and price decline" phase (2018-2022) to a "volume and price increase" phase in 2025, indicating a healthier growth trajectory [48][51]. - The shift in market dynamics is attributed to the effectiveness of the "reporting and operation integration" policy and the adjustment of premium rates, which have improved the new business value rates significantly [40][41]. Agent Channel and Bank Insurance Channel - The agent channel is facing challenges with a decline in the number of agents and average productivity, while the bank insurance channel is experiencing robust growth, indicating a shift in sales strategy [42][39]. - The average productivity of agents decreased by 11.3%, highlighting the ongoing transformation within the agent channel [46]. Conclusion - The insurance industry is showing resilience and adaptability, with a clear trend towards high-quality development characterized by simultaneous growth in new business value and premiums, driven by strategic channel shifts and improved operational efficiencies [51][52].

2025H1上市险企投资资产规模稳步增长，哑铃型配置结构更加突出，但债券增配力度较小而股票增配 力度更大，截至6月末各公司股票占比分别为新华保险11.6%>中国平安10.5%>中国太保9.7%>中国人寿 8.7%>中国太平8.3%>中国人保5.4%。从收益表现来看，净投资收益率延续下行态势，分别为中国人保 3.7%(同比-0.1pt)>中国平安3.6%(简单年化、同比+0.3pt)>中国太保3.4%(简单年化、同比-0.2pt)>新华保 险3.0%(同比-0.2pt)>中国人寿2.8%(同比-0.3pt)。 总投资收益率差异明显主因权益投资策略不同，分别为新华保险5.9%(同比+1.1pt)>中国人保5.1%(同比 +1.0pt)>中国太保4.6%(简单年化、同比-0.8pt)>中国平安3.8%(简单年化、同比+0.3pt)>中国人寿3.3%(同 比-0.3pt)。 净利润和净资产分化明显，中期分红重视股东回报 受资本市场波动影响不同，2025H1上市险企归母净利润增速分别为新华保险+33.5%>中国人保+16.9%> 中国太平+12.2%>中国太保+11.0%>中国人寿+6.9%。剔除短期投资波动和其他一次 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The insurance industry is divided into life insurance and property insurance, each with distinct business models and financial metrics [1][12]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Life Insurance Profitability**: Life insurance companies derive profits from three main sources: mortality difference (死差), expense difference (费差), and interest difference (利差). Effective management of expected payouts and expenses can yield additional profits, but the cost of liabilities varies significantly among companies due to hidden components [1][3][4]. - **Property Insurance Simplicity**: Property insurance premium calculation is straightforward, equating to expected payouts plus additional fees. Companies with strong underwriting capabilities can achieve profitability before investments, making their business model more attractive to investors [1][5]. - **Valuation of Life Insurance Companies**: Evaluating life insurance companies requires the concept of policy value, which estimates future costs and revenues, incorporating assumptions about payouts, expenses, and investments to assess policy profitability [1][6]. - **Embedded Value vs. Accounting Value**: The embedded value system focuses on shareholder returns using DCF methods to discount future profits to net assets, while the accounting system emphasizes reported profits through accounting assumptions [1][7]. - **Valuation Drivers**: Key drivers for life insurance company valuations include the growth and realizability of policy profitability. New business value reflects growth expectations, and the high proportion of interest difference makes the sector sensitive to market fluctuations [1][11]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Core Competitiveness**: The core competitiveness of insurance institutions lies in the linkage between assets and liabilities, necessitating an analysis of their feedback relationship. Companies with high short-term asset yield elasticity also face higher liability costs [1][15][16]. - **Liability Characteristics**: Life insurance liabilities often have long durations (over 20 years) and include hidden costs. The management of these liabilities is crucial to avoid risks associated with high-interest liabilities [1][17]. - **Asset Allocation Considerations**: When allocating assets for life insurance companies, three factors must be considered: cash flow matching, cost-benefit matching, and duration matching. Balancing these factors is essential to mitigate risks associated with interest rate changes [1][18]. - **Key Elements of Successful Insurance Companies**: Successful insurance companies are characterized by long-term strategic vision from shareholders, capable management, and strong corporate governance, which collectively drive positive operational outcomes [1][19].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance for the first half of 2025, with significant year-on-year growth in revenue and net profit, outperforming major competitors in the insurance sector [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company achieved operating revenue of 70.041 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 26.0% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 14.799 billion yuan, up 33.5% year-on-year, while competitors like PICC, Taiping, China Life, and Ping An reported growth rates of 16.9%, 11.0%, 6.9%, and a decline of 8.8%, respectively [1]. - The new business value (NBV) reached 6.182 billion yuan, reflecting a robust year-on-year growth of 58.4% [1]. Business Quality and Growth - The company reported original insurance premium income of 121.262 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.7% [2]. - First-year premiums for long-term insurance surged to 39.622 billion yuan, up 113.1% year-on-year, while first-year regular premium income for long-term insurance reached 25.528 billion yuan, increasing by 64.9% [2]. - The individual life insurance business maintained a 13-month persistency rate of 96.2%, up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, and a 25-month persistency rate of 92.5%, up 6.9 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The individual insurance channel had a workforce of 133,000, a decrease of 2.5% from the end of 2024, but the average monthly performance of agents improved [2]. Investment Performance - The company reported an annualized total investment return of 5.9%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, while the annualized net investment return was 3.0%, down 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The asset allocation included 50.6% in bonds (up 2.1 percentage points from the previous year), 11.6% in stocks (up 10.2 percentage points), and 7.0% in funds (down 4.9 percentage points) [3]. - High-dividend OCI equity instruments increased to 37.466 billion yuan, a growth of 22% from the beginning of the year [3]. Investment Recommendation - The investment rating is maintained at Buy-A, with projected EPS for 2025-2027 at 8.80 yuan, 11.47 yuan, and 11.72 yuan, respectively [3]. - The company is assigned a 0.8x P/EV for 2025, with a corresponding six-month target price of 70.91 yuan [3].

Core Viewpoint - The life insurance industry in the first half of 2025 has shown significant profit growth, with 73 companies reporting a total net profit of 185.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of approximately 37 billion, or 25% [10][12][13]. Group 1: Profit Growth and Performance - 52 out of 73 life insurance companies reported profits, while 21 incurred losses, indicating a positive trend in profitability [1][22]. - The net profit of major companies such as Ping An and China Life has significantly contributed to the overall profit increase, with Ping An reporting a net profit of 50.6 billion and China Life 40.3 billion [2][24]. - The industry has experienced three consecutive years of profit growth, reaching a new high that surpasses the same period in 2019 [10][12]. Group 2: Investment and Business Value - The increase in equity investment has led to a rise in investment returns, with the average investment yield for 73 companies rising to 4.22%, up from 3.59% year-on-year [16][18]. - The total amount directly invested in stocks by insurance companies exceeded 3 trillion, marking an increase of approximately 1 trillion compared to the previous year [18]. - New business value has also seen substantial growth, particularly in the bancassurance channel, with companies like China Life and Xinhua Insurance reporting over 100% growth in new single premiums [31][35]. Group 3: Company Rankings and Market Dynamics - The top six life insurance companies have shown robust performance, with significant increases in both premium income and new business value [23][28]. - Tai Kang Life has seen a notable profit increase, attributed to the implementation of new accounting standards and improved investment returns [38][40]. - AIA's new business value rate remains high at 58.6%, reflecting its strong market position and effective agent model [41]. Group 4: Losses and Challenges for Smaller Companies - Despite the overall positive trend, 21 companies reported losses, with many being smaller firms struggling with high liability costs and investment volatility [22][43]. - Companies like Heng Tai Life and Guo Lian Life have faced significant challenges, with declining investment yields contributing to their financial difficulties [49][50]. - The continuous losses among smaller firms highlight the need for capital strengthening and improved operational efficiency to enhance solvency [47][48].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" investment rating for the company [3][6]. Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in operating revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with operating revenue reaching 70.041 billion yuan (YoY +26.0%) and net profit attributable to shareholders at 14.799 billion yuan (YoY +33.5%) [1]. - The new business value (NBV) grew impressively by 58.4% to 6.182 billion yuan, indicating strong business performance and improved quality [1][2]. - The company's embedded value reached 279.394 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.1% increase from the end of the previous year [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the company achieved original insurance premium income of 121.262 billion yuan (YoY +22.7%), with first-year premiums for long-term insurance at 39.622 billion yuan (YoY +113.1%) [1]. - The annualized total investment return rate was 5.9% (YoY +1.1 percentage points), while the annualized net investment return rate was 3.0% (YoY -0.2 percentage points) [2]. Business Quality Improvement - The individual life insurance business showed improvement with a 13-month persistency rate of 96.2% (YoY +1.2 percentage points) and a 25-month persistency rate of 92.5% (YoY +6.9 percentage points) [1]. - The company’s distribution channels saw enhancements, with the individual insurance channel having 133,000 agents, and the bancassurance channel contributing significantly to NBV [2]. Future Projections - The report forecasts EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 8.80 yuan, 11.47 yuan, and 11.72 yuan respectively, with a target price of 70.91 yuan based on a 0.8x 2025 P/EV [3].

Core Insights - The life insurance industry in China has shown a significant recovery in net profits for the first half of the year, driven by business structure optimization, cost reduction measures, and improved investment returns [1][3]. Group 1: Profitability Overview - As of September 3, 73 life insurance companies reported a total net profit of 185.8 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 25% [2][6]. - Out of these, 52 companies were profitable, collectively earning 190.08 billion yuan, while 21 companies reported losses totaling 4.27 billion yuan [2][3]. - Major profitable companies included Ping An Life, China Life, and China Pacific Life, each exceeding 10 billion yuan in net profit, with Ping An Life leading at 50.6 billion yuan [2][4]. Group 2: Losses and Challenges - The company with the highest loss was Hengqin Life, with a loss of 839 million yuan, followed by Bank of China Samsung Life and Aixin Life with losses of 543 million yuan and 384 million yuan, respectively [3][4]. - The competitive landscape is increasingly challenging for smaller insurance companies, which struggle against larger firms in terms of brand, capital, distribution channels, and talent [5][6]. Group 3: Strategic Adjustments - Companies are adjusting product pricing and business structures, including lowering product preset interest rates and promoting the transformation of dividend-type products, which has effectively reduced rigid liability costs [3][4]. - New business value has improved due to proactive optimization of business structures and cost reduction initiatives, with first-year premium income from regular premium products increasing by 25.5% year-on-year [4][5]. Group 4: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The "Matthew Effect" is evident, with the top seven life insurance companies accounting for over 80% of the industry's total net profit [5][6]. - Analysts expect continued improvement in the insurance industry's liability side, with a recovery in asset performance anticipated as macroeconomic conditions improve [6].