债市周周谈：25Q3 险资投资有何变化？20251123 今年第三季度保险资金在债券和银行存款方面有哪些变化？ 今年第三季度，保险公司在债券投资方面增加了 3,100 亿元，但相比上半年 1.94 万亿元的增量有所减少。这一变化部分是由于新金融工具准则切换过程中 债券分类调整所致。此外，今年 5 月以来银行大幅下调存款利率，使得保险公 中国经济面临下行压力，央行或将降息应对。预计政策利率可能在 12 月中旬或明年 1 月初调整。市场尚未完全反映降息预期，建议看多做多 四季度及明年的国债市场。 惩罚性赎回费规则未落地导致三季度主动纯债基金规模下降，影响市场 情绪。若规则落地，将消除不确定性，恢复市场信心。预计 12 月主动 纯债基金规模将小幅增长，对市场构成支撑。 司的银行存款余额出现下降，目前估计其存款投资占比约为 8%，绝对余额接 近 2 万亿元。 保险公司在股票和长期股权投资方面有什么动态？ 摘要 保险资金运用余额达 37.46 万亿，投资主要分布在存款、债券、股票、 基金及长期股权投资。非标投资占比显著下降，未来或将持续减少，反 映出投资结构的调整。 三季度债券投资增加 3,100 亿元，增幅较上半年放 ...

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the new accounting standards in the insurance industry, particularly the FVOCI category, is significantly impacting the asset allocation strategies of insurance companies [1][2][4]. Group 1: Accounting Standards and Implementation - The FVOCI (Fair Value Through Other Comprehensive Income) category will be fully implemented by January 1, 2026, replacing the previous four-category model with a three-category system [2][4]. - The new classification system includes FVOCI, FVTPL (Fair Value Through Profit or Loss), and AC (Amortized Cost) [2][4]. - Non-listed insurance companies must implement the new standards by the specified date, while some companies like China Ping An have already adopted them since 2018 [4]. Group 2: Impact on Profitability - Investment income is crucial for insurance companies, with total investment income contributing significantly to net profit for major players like China Life and China Ping An, with ratios reaching 192% and 194% respectively in the first half of 2025 [8]. - The choice between FVOCI and FVTPL for equity assets can greatly influence profit volatility, with FVOCI potentially offering a more stable profit profile for companies with long-term liabilities [11]. Group 3: Asset Allocation Trends - As of mid-2025, the proportion of equity assets classified under FVOCI has increased for major insurance companies, with China Life's FVOCI equity assets rising by 10.6 percentage points to 22.6% [12]. - The increase in FVOCI equity allocation is attributed to a low-interest-rate environment and a shortage of alternative investments, making FVOCI stocks a short-term substitute for bonds [15]. - In the bond category, the FVOCI proportion has also seen increases, with China Life's bond assets under FVOCI rising by 1.8 percentage points to 87.3% [16]. Group 4: Strategic Considerations - Different insurance companies have varying requirements regarding profit volatility, leading some to prefer a higher allocation to FVOCI assets while others may favor FVTPL for potential higher returns [17]. - The classification of assets is not standardized across the industry, allowing companies to tailor their strategies based on their specific operational needs and investment capabilities [17].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Insights - The company reported significant growth in investment income and new business value (NBV), driven by strong performance in the investment sector and a strategic shift in product structure [1][2][3] - The total revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 537.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.9%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 167.8 billion yuan, up 60.5% year-on-year [1][7] - The company has successfully increased its equity investments, resulting in a substantial rise in investment income, which grew by 453.4% year-on-year to 137.1 billion yuan [3][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 298.7 billion yuan, a 54.8% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 126.9 billion yuan, up 91.5% year-on-year [1] - The new business value (NBV) for the first three quarters increased by 41.8% compared to the same period in 2024, reflecting effective business development and product optimization [2] - Total premium income rose by 10.1% to 669.645 billion yuan, with both new and renewal premiums showing double-digit growth [2] Investment Strategy - The company realized total investment income of 368.55 billion yuan, a 41.0% increase year-on-year, with an investment return rate of 6.42%, up 104 basis points [3] - The company maintained a high proportion of trading financial assets (TPL) to enhance flexibility and has adopted a high-dividend strategy to stabilize net investment income [3] Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 to 2027 are projected to be 6.33, 6.51, and 6.71 yuan, respectively, with an upward revision from previous estimates [3][4] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-embedded value (P/EV) of 0.84, 0.77, and 0.71 for 2025 to 2027 [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - Insurance capital has entered a "buying" mode in equity investments, significantly increasing their holdings in A-shares as evidenced by the third-quarter reports of listed companies [1][3]. Group 1: Insurance Capital Investment Trends - As of the end of the third quarter, the number of A-shares held by insurance institutions increased by 19% compared to the end of the previous year, with the market value of these holdings rising by 18% [1][3]. - In the third quarter alone, the number of A-shares held by insurance capital grew by 14% compared to the previous quarter, with a total market value exceeding 650 billion yuan [3][6]. - Financial stocks remain a cornerstone of insurance capital investments, with their market value exceeding 300 billion yuan, accounting for nearly 50% of total holdings [3][4]. Group 2: New Investments and Sector Focus - Over 300 new stocks were added to the insurance capital's heavy holdings in the third quarter, with a total market value of over 100 billion yuan [5][6]. - The manufacturing sector accounted for the highest proportion of new investments, with over 200 new stocks and a market value exceeding 45 billion yuan [6]. - Significant new investments were also made in strategic emerging industries and high-tech manufacturing, including sectors like semiconductors and medical devices [6]. Group 3: Performance and Returns - The increase in equity investments has led to substantial returns, contributing to record-high profits for several insurance companies in the third quarter [7][8]. - For instance, China Life reported a net profit of 167.8 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 60.5%, driven by a total investment income of 368.6 billion yuan [8]. - New China Life also saw a net profit increase of 58.9%, with a total investment income reflecting a significant growth trend in the capital market [8].

Core Insights - The five major A-share listed insurance companies in China achieved a record net profit of 426.04 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of over 100 billion yuan and a growth rate of 33.5% [1][3] - The net profit for the third quarter alone saw a remarkable year-on-year growth of 68.3% [1][3] Financial Performance - China Life reported a net profit of 167.80 billion yuan for the first three quarters, up 60.5% year-on-year, with a third-quarter profit of 126.87 billion yuan, reflecting a 91.5% increase [3][4] - Ping An's net profit for the first three quarters was 132.86 billion yuan, a growth of 11.5%, with a third-quarter profit of 64.81 billion yuan, up 45.4% [3][4] - China Pacific Insurance achieved a net profit of 45.70 billion yuan, growing 19.3% year-on-year, with a third-quarter profit of 17.82 billion yuan, up 35.2% [3][4] - New China Life reported a net profit of 32.86 billion yuan, a 58.9% increase, with a third-quarter profit of 18.06 billion yuan, reflecting an 88.2% growth [3][4] - China Property & Casualty Insurance's net profit was 46.82 billion yuan, up 28.9%, with a third-quarter profit of 20.29 billion yuan, a 48.7% increase [3][4] Investment Performance - The significant increase in profits is attributed to a surge in investment income, with China Life reporting total investment income of 368.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.0% [5][6] - Ping An's investment portfolio achieved a non-annualized comprehensive investment return of 5.4%, up 1.0 percentage points year-on-year [6][7] - China Property & Casualty Insurance reported total investment income of 86.25 billion yuan, a 35.3% increase [6][7] - New China Life's annualized total investment return was 8.6%, with a comprehensive investment return of 6.7% [7] Premium Growth - China Life's total premium income reached 669.65 billion yuan, a 10.1% increase, with all premium categories showing double-digit growth [8] - Ping An's new business value in life and health insurance was 35.72 billion yuan, up 46.2% year-on-year [8] - China Pacific Insurance's total premium income was 263.86 billion yuan, a 14.2% increase, with new business value growing by 7.7% [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the Guangfa CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank ETF (513750.SH) [1] Core Insights - The insurance sector is experiencing a recovery in profitability, driven by strong performance in Q3 2025, with major companies like China Life, New China Life, and China Property & Casualty reporting net profit growth rates of 106%, 101%, and 122% respectively [11][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of the PEV (Price of Embedded Value) valuation system for insurance companies, which reflects long-term profitability potential more accurately than traditional PE or PB metrics [20][22] - The report highlights the low valuation levels of the insurance sector, with average PEV ratios for A/H shares at 0.72x and 0.51x, indicating a significant margin of safety and potential for value appreciation [34][37] - The Guangfa CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank Index focuses heavily on the insurance sector, providing a unique investment opportunity with a high concentration of insurance assets [41][47] Summary by Sections 1. Q3 Performance and Investment Value of Insurance Stocks - The report notes that listed insurance companies achieved high net profit growth in Q3 2025, exceeding expectations despite a high base from the previous year [11][12] - The increase in investment income from equity investments is identified as a key driver of this growth, with insurance funds significantly increasing their equity allocations [13][17] - The high proportion of FVTPL (Fair Value Through Profit or Loss) assets among insurance companies enhances profit elasticity, allowing for direct reflection of market gains in profit figures [17][19] 2. Guangfa CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank ETF (513750.SH) Overview - The ETF is noted for its unique focus on insurance, with a significant portion of its holdings in major insurance companies, making it a rare investment vehicle in the market [41][47] - The ETF has shown strong liquidity and growth, with an average daily trading volume of 1.818 billion yuan and a fund size of 21.214 billion yuan as of October 24, 2025 [5][41] - The ETF's performance is highlighted, with a cumulative return of 66.68% and an annualized return of 36.83%, positioning it favorably compared to other financial sector ETFs [5][41]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The adjustment of Tier 2 and Perpetual (Two - Yong) bonds may not be over, and they still face risks of callback and repricing. However, they still have certain cost - effectiveness, especially 5 - year high - rating varieties [5][6]. - In the fourth quarter, the bond market is likely to fluctuate and decline, and there are still concerns about the decline in spreads. It is difficult to reproduce the unilateral downward trend in April [5]. - After the official release of the new public offering sales regulations, the spread center of Two - Yong bonds and their yield may rise slightly [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Two - Yong Bonds' Cost - Effectiveness is Prominent - In September, affected by market risk appetite and rising interest rates, the bond market continued to adjust. After the China Securities Regulatory Commission solicited opinions on the new public offering sales regulations on September 5, the bond market faced redemption pressure. Two - Yong bonds, as heavily - held by public funds, had significant declines, and the yields of 5Y and above Two - Yong bonds reached new highs for the year [5][12]. - In October, the stock market pulled back, the 10Y Treasury bond interest rate declined slightly, and the yields of urban investment bonds and Two - Yong bonds decreased. The Two - Yong bonds with larger previous declines had more obvious recoveries. As of now, the yields and credit spreads of 5Y credit assets are still at relatively high historical percentile levels for the year, and the decline may be limited [5][14]. 3.2 What to Focus on in Two - Yong Bonds - From a macro - fundamental perspective, Sino - US games and a weak economy support the bond market. However, the stock market rebound in October and concerns about the new public offering sales regulations still pose concerns about the decline in yields of quasi - interest - rate varieties [20]. - In terms of supply structure, the redemption of Two - Yong bonds reached a new high in September, the net financing gap widened, and banks faced capital replenishment pressure. In the fourth quarter, the supply of Two - Yong bonds may not be weak due to "redeeming old and issuing new" [5][23]. - From the perspective of institutional behavior, the spread trend of Two - Yong bonds is more related to the net purchases of funds, wealth management products, and securities firms. Currently, the liquidity of Two - Yong bonds is okay, but the buying power of funds is not strong. The impact of the official release of the new public offering sales regulations remains to be observed [27]. - Historically, the bond market in the fourth quarter is likely to show a pattern of fluctuating recovery, and it mostly moves sideways in October. Currently, the trading volume and turnover rate of Two - Yong bonds have rebounded, and the decline space is limited. Attention can be paid to the effect of the interest - rate amplifier of Two - Yong bonds on increasing returns when interest rates decline [47]. 3.3 Which Two - Yong Bonds Still Have Cost - Effectiveness - From the perspective of asset comparison, except for 3Y - AA+ Tier 2 capital bonds, the historical percentiles of the yields of other Two - Yong bonds are higher than those of other varieties with the same maturity, still having certain cost - effectiveness. The yields of 3Y implied AAA - and AA+ perpetual bonds are higher than those of medium - short - term notes and Tier 2 capital bonds of the same maturity, at 76% and 18% historical percentile levels for the year respectively. The yields of 5 - year Tier 2 capital bonds and perpetual bonds are higher than those of other credit assets, and the yields are all at more than 16% historical percentile levels for the year [53]. - From the perspective of credit spreads, high - implied - rating Two - Yong bonds have relatively higher cost - effectiveness, especially 5Y Tier 2 capital bonds. The 3Y implied AAA - perpetual bonds have relatively large spread compression space compared with Tier 2 capital bonds of the same rating and maturity, at the 50% historical percentile level for the year. The spreads of 5 - year high - implied - rating Two - Yong bonds compared with general credit bonds are more sufficient, and the 5Y implied AAA - perpetual bonds are worthy of attention, with a credit spread of 66bp, at the 59% historical percentile level for the year [58].

一方面上市险企需要通过合适的分红水平稳定投资者信心，支撑当前股价；另一方面也需要考虑投资收 益波动、偿付能力水平等潜在情况，适时调整。保险公司需在股东回报与自身业务发展之间找好平衡 点。 A股五大上市险企在发布2025年半年度报告的同时，还发布了2025年中期利润分配方案。9月2日，据北 京商报记者梳理，中国平安、中国人寿、中国人保和新华保险拟进行中期利润分配，合计分红金额约为 293.36亿元（含税）。 在浙大城市学院副教授林先平看来，本次四大上市险企合计约293亿元中期分红属"稳健偏积极"，与上 半年盈利匹配，兼顾了股东回报与资本安全。 就分红连续性而言，中国平安已经连续多年中期分红，新华保险、中国人寿、中国人保则是去年增加了 中期分红，4家公司均保持了中期分红政策的连续性。苏商银行特约研究员武泽伟表示，稳定的分红对 上市险企市值管理具有多重意义：其一，直接回报股东，增强市场信心，有助于塑造企业稳健经营的形 象，吸引长期价值投资者；其二，通过提升投资者回报巩固市场地位。 需平衡自身经营情况 对于上市险企来说，高分红能更好地回报投资者，有利于提升市值，但分红也意味着部分盈余资金流 出，可能对公司的内生资本积 ...

Core Viewpoint - The five major listed insurance companies in A-shares announced a total mid-term profit distribution plan amounting to approximately 29.336 billion yuan (including tax) alongside their 2025 semi-annual reports, reflecting a balance between shareholder returns and business development needs [2][3]. Group 1: Profit Distribution - The total mid-term dividend amount from the four companies, excluding China Pacific Insurance, is approximately 29.336 billion yuan, with China Ping An distributing 17.202 billion yuan, China Life 6.727 billion yuan, China Pacific Insurance 3.317 billion yuan, and New China Life 2.090 billion yuan [3][4]. - China Ping An has maintained a continuous increase in dividends over the past decade, with a mid-term cash dividend of 0.95 yuan per share, representing a year-on-year growth of 2.2% [3][4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, the five major listed insurance companies achieved a total net profit of 178.192 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 3.7% [3]. - The improvement in investment income is attributed to the recovery of the capital market, while key indicators of insurance business have also improved due to factors like the adjustment of preset interest rates and optimization of liability costs [3][6]. Group 3: Dividend Policy Considerations - Insurance companies need to balance shareholder returns with their own business development, considering factors such as investment income volatility and solvency levels [2][6]. - The implementation of new financial instrument standards has increased profit volatility, which may affect the continuity and stability of dividend policies [6][7]. - Executives from various insurance companies emphasized the importance of stable long-term dividend growth while considering regulatory guidelines and industry conditions [6][7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite increased profit volatility due to new financial standards, insurance companies are expected to maintain dividend policy continuity through mechanisms like smoothing distribution and adjusting dividend ratios [7]. - The industry is anticipated to focus more on shareholder returns, with a long-term goal of stable growth in per-share dividends, supported by improved profitability and optimized liability costs [7].

Core Viewpoint - The five major listed insurance companies in A-shares announced their mid-term profit distribution plan, with a total dividend amount of approximately 29.336 billion yuan (including tax) [1][3]. Group 1: Dividend Distribution - The five major listed insurance companies, excluding China Pacific Insurance, announced mid-term dividends, with China Ping An distributing 17.202 billion yuan, China Life 6.727 billion yuan, China Pacific Insurance 3.317 billion yuan, and New China Life 2.090 billion yuan [3][4]. - The total net profit of these five companies reached 178.192 billion yuan in the first half of the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.7% [3][5]. - The mid-term dividend distribution is seen as "stable and slightly positive," aligning with the companies' profitability while balancing shareholder returns and capital safety [3][4]. Group 2: Dividend Policy and Market Impact - The continuous dividend policy of these companies enhances market confidence and attracts long-term value investors, contributing to their market capitalization management [4]. - High dividends can improve shareholder returns but may restrict internal capital accumulation and potential investment capabilities [5]. - The implementation of new financial instrument standards has increased profit volatility, affecting the stability of dividend policies [5][6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite increased profit volatility due to new financial standards, insurance companies are expected to maintain dividend policy continuity through smoothing mechanisms and adjusting dividend ratios [6]. - The industry is anticipated to focus more on shareholder returns, with a long-term goal of stable growth in per-share dividends [6].