[Table_Title] 宽基 ETF 流出放缓，宏观流动性边际收敛 ——流动性周报 3 月第 1 期 最近一年走势 投资要点: 2026 年 03 月 03 日 策略周报 研究所： 证券分析师： 赵阳 S0350525100003 zhaoy05@ghzq.com.cn 相关报告 《近期涨价链行情观点及 3-4 月布局思路*赵阳》— —2026-03-01 《流动性周报 2 月第 3 期：社融同比增速放缓，权 益基金发行回暖*赵阳》——2026-02-24 《流动性周报 2 月第 2 期：宽基流出明显收窄*赵 阳》——2026-02-10 《流动性周报 2 月第 1 期：宽基 ETF 继续大幅流 出*赵阳》——2026-02-02 《年报预报落地后，市场如何演绎？*赵阳》—— 2026-02-01 1. 本周（2026/02/23-2026/02/27，下同）宏观资金面边际收敛，央行通 过公开市场操作开展逆回购净回笼 7274 亿元，开展中期借贷便利净投放 3000 亿元。资金价格方面，短端利率、长端利率均有所上行，期限利差 有所走阔。 2. 本周股市资金供给端呈现结构性分化，权益基金发行大幅回落，杠杆 ...

值得关注的是，此轮新增代销机构的产品中，低波红利、纯债、稳健固收+等风险适中的产品不少，而 高弹性的权益基金则相对较少。这一结构性特征，折射出在市场环境与政策导向的双重作用下，基金销 售渠道正悄然调整布局重心。 稳健型产品频现 摩根基金公告称，新增上海中欧财富基金销售有限公司为旗下摩根标普港股通低波红利ETF发起式联接 C的代销机构。 先锋基金宣布与北京度小满基金销售有限公司签署基金销售服务协议，度小满基金即日起销售先锋基金 旗下先锋聚利A、先锋日添利A等14只基金。记者梳理发现，上述14只产品中，10只为中风险，4只为低 风险，无高风险产品。 2月27日，摩根基金、先锋基金、国海富兰克林基金等多家公募机构发布公告，宣布新增代销合作机 构，涉及产品范围广泛。 国海富兰克林基金公告称，腾安基金销售(深圳)有限公司将代理销售该公司旗下国富恒安30天持有期债 券A等2只基金并开通定期定额投资业务。据了解，上述2只产品均为中低风险。 此外，景顺长城基金、平安基金、华宝基金等多家公募机构近来也为旗下部分产品新增代销机构，所涉 产品的风险等级基本不高于中风险(R3)。 整体而言，此轮新增代销产品集中于低波红利、纯债及稳健 ...

- The report introduces a quantitative model for evaluating equity funds, using 22 benchmark indices as independent variables and fund returns as dependent variables. The model applies a rolling window regression with a 6-month window to calculate the R² matrix for each fund. The benchmark index with the highest average R² over the last six periods is selected as the reference index for fund performance evaluation[18][19][24] - The construction process of the model involves linear regression for each benchmark index and fund return, followed by rolling window regression to derive the R² matrix. The formula used is $ R² = 1 - \frac{\sum_{i=1}^{n}(y_i - \hat{y}_i)^2}{\sum_{i=1}^{n}(y_i - \bar{y})^2} $, where $ y_i $ represents fund returns, $ \hat{y}_i $ represents predicted returns, and $ \bar{y} $ represents the mean of fund returns[18][19][24] - The model is evaluated as effective in identifying the most relevant benchmark index for fund performance, providing a robust framework for fund classification and strategy analysis[18][24] - The backtesting results of the model show that the average R² value for equity funds decreased slightly from 0.7478 in December to 0.7336 in January, indicating a slight reduction in the fit of funds to single benchmark indices[34] - The report categorizes equity funds into five styles: large-cap, mid-small-cap, value, growth, and thematic sectors. The classification is based on the benchmark index with the highest R² value derived from the model[24][27][33] - The performance of mid-small-cap funds was the highest in January, with a median return of 8.18%, followed by growth funds at 7.08%, large-cap funds at 4.13%, value funds at 3.88%, and thematic sector funds at 3.37%[24][25][27] - The thematic sector funds are further divided into categories such as healthcare, cyclical, infrastructure, consumption, technology, finance, and advanced manufacturing. Among these, cyclical funds performed the best, with an average return of 21.6% for active funds and 18.2% for passive funds[27][30][32] - The report highlights high-rated funds, defined as AAA and AA+ funds, which demonstrate strong alpha sustainability and upward alpha trends. AAA funds are stable alpha-type funds suitable for long-term holdings, while AA+ funds exhibit steadily increasing alpha values, indicating strong potential for excess returns[47][48][49] - The report identifies new emerging funds, defined as funds receiving their first rating this month and managed by fund managers with less than three years of experience. These funds predominantly track indices such as CSI Dividend and CSI 300[63][64] - The report also highlights funds with significant rating upgrades, defined as funds whose ratings improved substantially compared to the previous month. These funds are primarily aligned with indices such as CSI Cyclical, CSI Dividend, and TMT (CITIC)[65][66]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a decrease in new fund issuance, with only 8 new funds launched during the last week of 2025, all of which are equity-related products [2][3] - The new funds include 4 equity funds and 2 mixed secondary bond funds, indicating a continued focus on equity investments despite a cooling bond market [3][4] - The longest subscription period for the new funds is approximately three months, while some funds have a subscription period as short as one day [2][3] Group 2 - Among the 8 new funds, 4 have set clear fundraising targets, with the highest being 80 million units for the Guangfa STAR Market Chip ETF and 60 million units for the Zhongyin Securities Anyi fund [3] - The new funds primarily focus on sectors such as technology and digital economy, with several funds tracking industry-specific indices [3][4] - The article notes that the bond market's profitability is declining, leading to a decrease in bond fund issuance, although "fixed income +" funds continue to be introduced [3]

Group 1 - The overall performance of public funds in 2023 is positive, with over 90% achieving net value increases, and more than 60 actively managed equity funds doubling their returns [1] - As of December 22, 2023, the average return rates for various fund types are: equity funds at 28.25%, mixed funds at 26.56%, QDII funds at 22.17%, FOF funds at 13.28%, bond funds at 2.2%, and money market funds at 1.29% [1] - The average return for equity funds (including stock, mixed, and QDII equity funds) is 25.47%, with approximately 94.36% of these funds showing net value increases this year [1] Group 2 - The average return for actively managed equity funds exceeds 29%, with the top-performing fund, Yongying Technology Smart Selection Mixed Fund A, achieving a net value increase of 231.72%, marking the first occurrence of a "double base" in equity funds since 2008 [2] - Other notable funds include Zhonghang Opportunity Leading Mixed Fund A and Hongtu Innovation Emerging Industry Mixed Fund A, with returns of 172% and 153% respectively [2] - A total of 63 actively managed equity funds have recorded net value increases exceeding 100%, including funds from Huatai-PB Quality Selection Mixed Fund A and others [2]

Group 1 - Liu Xinqun has been appointed as the new chairman of Zhongyin Fund, effective December 10, 2025, succeeding Zhang Jiawen who no longer serves in this role [2][3][7] - Liu Xinqun has a strong background in banking, previously serving as the president of the Shenzhen branch of the Bank of China and holding various senior positions within the bank [5][6] - As of the end of Q3 this year, Zhongyin Fund's total public fund management scale exceeded 700 billion yuan, reaching a historical high of 703.09 billion yuan, with non-monetary funds accounting for 326.38 billion yuan, ranking 19th in the industry [9][11] Group 2 - Zhongyin Fund has been actively working to address its equity fund shortfall, launching 14 new funds this year, with a significant focus on equity funds, which account for nearly 80% of new issuances [12] - The company has also successfully issued its first REITs focused on central enterprise warehousing and logistics infrastructure, demonstrating its commitment to supporting the real economy [12] - The fund's bond fund scale reached 288.54 billion yuan, making up over 88% of its non-monetary fund portfolio, while the combined scale of its stock and mixed funds is approximately 30 billion yuan [12]

Core Viewpoint - The appointment of Liu Xinqun as the new chairman of Zhongyin Fund marks a significant leadership change in the company, which is part of the "banking system" fund companies in China [1][3]. Group 1: Leadership Change - Liu Xinqun has been appointed as the chairman of Zhongyin Fund, succeeding Zhang Jiawen, who will no longer serve as acting chairman [1][6]. - Liu Xinqun has a strong background in the banking sector, having previously served as the president of the Shenzhen branch of the Bank of China and holds a doctorate in statistics from Zhongnan University of Economics and Law [4][5]. Group 2: Company Performance - As of the end of Q3 this year, Zhongyin Fund's total public fund management scale exceeded 700 billion yuan, reaching 703.09 billion yuan, a historical high [9]. - The non-monetary fund scale was reported at 326.38 billion yuan, ranking 19th in the industry [9]. - In the first half of this year, Zhongyin Fund achieved a net profit of 420 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.99% [10]. Group 3: Strategic Focus - Zhongyin Fund has been actively working to address its shortfall in equity funds, with 14 new funds launched this year, of which 80% are equity-related [10]. - The company has also successfully issued its first central enterprise REITs, focusing on warehousing and logistics infrastructure, to support the real economy and revitalize existing assets [10].

Core Viewpoint - The performance of the Xin Yuan Fund's actively managed equity product has significantly underperformed in a generally rising A-share market, with a year-to-date decline of approximately 21%, placing it at the bottom of the market [2][3]. Group 1: Fund Performance and Management - The Xin Yuan Consumption Selection Mixed Fund has experienced a net value decline of about 50% since its establishment on March 24, 2023, ranking 4476th and 4477th among 4477 similar products for its A and C shares respectively [3]. - The fund has undergone frequent changes in its top ten holdings, with seven out of ten stocks being replaced from the second to the third quarter, indicating a highly aggressive trading style that contrasts with its long-term consumption theme [5]. - The current fund manager, Yao Qipin, is relatively inexperienced, managing this fund as his first, which raises concerns about the fund's stability and predictability [6]. Group 2: Company Background and Challenges - Xin Yuan Fund, established in 2013, has a significant focus on fixed income, with nearly 60% of its assets in bond funds, while equity funds only account for 3.13% of its total assets [8]. - The company has seen a major overhaul in its management team, with a new general manager and three new deputy general managers appointed, reflecting a shift in strategy amid underperformance in equity funds [8][21]. - Despite the overall growth in fund management scale, the company faces profitability pressures, with revenue and net profit fluctuating significantly over the past few years [22]. Group 3: Market Context and Future Outlook - The public fund issuance market has warmed up, particularly for equity funds, with many new products being launched by Xin Yuan Fund, indicating an aggressive push to capture market share [10][11]. - The company’s mixed funds have underperformed compared to peers over various time frames, suggesting challenges in achieving competitive returns [11]. - The upcoming end of the three-year lock-up period for the Xin Yuan Consumption Selection Mixed Fund poses a risk of potential liquidation if performance does not improve [8].

Core Insights - This week, 21 new funds are set to launch, primarily focusing on equity funds, although their proportion has decreased compared to previous weeks [1][4]. Fund Issuance Overview - A total of 21 new funds will be publicly offered this week, with 15 of them launching on Monday, accounting for over 70% of the week's total [2]. - The longest subscription period among these funds is three months, with funds like Hengsheng Qianhai Growth Power and Morgan Stanley's Tianyi [2][3]. - The average subscription period for the new funds is 23.29 days, which is longer than in previous weeks, likely due to recent market adjustments [3]. Fund Types and Categories - Equity funds remain the dominant type, with 11 out of 21 new funds classified as equity, although their share has declined [4]. - Among the equity funds, there are five index funds and three enhanced index funds, with the former making up over 45% of the equity category [4]. - Three actively managed equity funds are also being launched, all of which are mixed funds [5]. Fixed Income and Other Funds - The bond market has seen a slowdown in fund issuance, with no pure bond funds launched this week; however, seven secondary bond funds are debuting [6]. - A total of eight "fixed income plus" funds are being introduced this week, making up nearly 40% of the new offerings [6]. Fund Details - Specific funds include the China Post North 50 Index Enhanced Fund with a minimum fundraising target of 1 billion units, and several other funds with targets ranging from 10 billion to 80 billion units [3][7]. - Notable funds launching include the Dachen CSI 800 Index Enhanced Fund and the Guotai Junan Stable Xin Yi Fund, among others [7].

Core Insights - The stock market has seen significant growth, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 38% in the past year, leading many to consider investing over saving [1] - Retail deposits at major banks like Industrial Bank increased by 148.3 billion, a year-on-year growth of 18.20%, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards asset management, particularly public funds [3] Fund Performance - Notable funds such as Yongying Advanced Manufacturing Mixed Fund and Penghua Carbon Neutral Theme Mixed Fund have performed well, ranking 3rd and 7th respectively in their categories over the past year [5] - The success of these funds is attributed to their strong performance, which enhances their credibility and ability to engage with third-party platforms [5][6] Platform Integration - The ability of fund products to integrate with major financial management tools like Alipay's Yu'e Bao and WeChat's Wallet reflects the fund companies' overall strength and trust with these platforms [6] - Yongying's product is integrated with WeChat's Wallet, while Penghua's product is part of Alipay's "saving" module, indicating a deep collaboration [6] Popularity and Engagement - As of the first week of September 2025, Yongying Advanced Manufacturing Mixed Fund and Penghua Carbon Neutral Theme Mixed Fund ranked 4th and 7th in popularity on Alipay's fund discussion board, with over 40,000 searches each [8] - The established conversion path on these platforms facilitates the transition from search to purchase, enhancing the funds' visibility and accessibility [8] Market Dynamics - Historical data shows that during a promotional event in 2021, a public fund gained over a million followers, highlighting the importance of internet platform operations for fund companies [10] - The market's volatility poses a challenge, as clients attracted during market upswings may exit during downturns, emphasizing the need for robust risk management strategies [11] Risk Management and Product Diversification - The maximum drawdown for Yongying Advanced Manufacturing Mixed Fund and Penghua Carbon Neutral Theme Mixed Fund reached 29.60% and 30.96% respectively, while another fund, Guangfa Value Return Mixed Fund, maintained a maximum drawdown of about 3% with an 18.26% increase [11] - A mature fund company should not rely solely on high-risk, high-return products but must also offer low-risk, stable-return options to ensure long-term client retention [13] - Yongying Fund's "fixed income+" product line also saw a growth of 14.1 billion in the first quarter of 2025, ranking among the top in the industry, indicating a balanced approach to product offerings [13]