牛市领涨主线之外，哪些行业值得关注？20250909 摘要 券商和信创软件在 25 年第一季度表现不佳，机器人板块则相对强势， 表明前期强势板块回调期不一定能保持强势，概率仅为 55%。 历史数据显示，中期表现行业在回调期间若出现超额收益，则在新一轮 上涨波段中跑赢大盘的概率高达 70%。 建议关注化工、有色金属（非黄金和稀土）及新能源相关化工方向，以 及周期板块和工程机械等价值板块，这些板块近期表现出超额收益。 化工板块经历三年格局出清，目前处于复苏前端或出清末端，具备投资 潜力。 市场对 2026 年 PPI 回正交易的预期较高，居民存款支撑指数牛市，基 本面催化因素包括 PPI 回正、居民消费复苏和地产反转。 PPI 回正大概率发生在今年年底或明年年初，预示周期风格将受益，未 来 6 个月以上对周期风格持乐观态度。 若当前主线回调走弱，后续跑赢大盘概率为 1/3；前期中等偏下行业回 调期若有超额收益，后续增长波段跑赢概率为 4/5。周期风格或在 2026 年表现较好，建议提前再平衡。 Q&A 当前市场结构的主线如何切换？有哪些观察指标？ 高低切和坚守主线并不是最优解，因为市场并非二元对立。正确的答案是某 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that in a bull market, the main style is "the strong remain strong," but cyclical styles may perform better in the latter half [2] - Historical analysis of major styles during the bull markets of 2006-2007 and 2014-2015 shows that while the main style remains strong, cyclical styles exhibit significant excess returns in the latter half after market consolidation [2] - In the current bull market, cyclical stocks maintain a relatively stable excess return but have not shown an independent trend compared to the broader market [2] Group 2 - The report identifies that in the early stages of a bull market, funds prefer a few high-growth sectors, while in the later stages, funds tend to focus on the main style, making it harder for new funds to achieve profits [2] - Cyclical stocks are characterized by low valuations and high beta, making them likely to show good performance elasticity as the fundamentals improve, positioning them as potential candidates for continued bull market speculation [2] - The analysis of the industry landscape for Q2 2025 indicates that the non-ferrous and chemical sectors show good revenue growth and return on equity (ROE) changes, indicating strong fundamental characteristics [2] Group 3 - The non-ferrous sector, particularly in metal new materials and minor metals, is positioned in the third quadrant, indicating a stabilization after a period of clearing [3] - Energy metals are showing signs of stabilization, albeit starting later than other sectors [2][3] - The chemical sector, including chemical products and plastics, is also in the third quadrant, indicating a similar stabilization trend after a clearing phase [3]

Group 1 - A-share index reached a new high in July, with strong performance from various brokerage firms' stock selections, leading to increased expectations for August's stock picks [1][2] - As of August 7, 42 brokerage firms have released their stock picks for August, covering multiple sectors including healthcare, information technology, industrials, materials, and consumer goods [1][2] - The overall return of brokerage stock selections in July was 7.7%, with a year-to-date return of 18.5% since 2025, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices [2][3] Group 2 - A total of 376 stocks were selected by 42 brokerages for August, with over 280 unique stocks after removing duplicates [3] - Key stocks frequently recommended include Dongfang Caifu, Muyuan Foods, Luoyang Molybdenum, Xinhua Insurance, Wanhua Chemical, Dajin Heavy Industry, and China Chemical [3] - The sectors with the highest representation in August's stock picks include non-bank financials, electronics, basic chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and machinery, indicating a positive outlook from brokerages for these industries [3] Group 3 - Analysts suggest a balanced investment approach in August, favoring both cyclical and technology growth sectors, with recommendations to buy on dips in industries such as new energy, non-ferrous metals, express delivery, chemicals, and large finance [4] - The market is expected to experience increased volatility in August, particularly during the peak of mid-year earnings disclosures, with a focus on high-performing but relatively low-priced technology stocks and small-cap styles [4]

Market Performance - On July 24, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.65%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.21%, and the ChiNext Index gained 1.50%[2] - The total market turnover was 1,844.402 billion CNY, a decrease of 19.873 billion CNY from the previous trading day[2] - A total of 4,463 stocks rose while 916 stocks fell[2] Market Style and Sector Performance - Growth stocks outperformed other styles, with the ranking being: Growth > Cyclical > Consumer > Stable > Financial[18] - The Consumer Services sector led with a rise of 3.84%, followed by Nonferrous Metals at 2.79% and Comprehensive Finance at 2.69%[18] - The Banking sector declined by 1.38%, while Communication and Oil & Petrochemicals fell by 0.10% and 0.08%, respectively[18] Capital Flow - On July 24, 2025, the net inflow of main funds was 6.548 billion CNY, with large orders seeing a net inflow of 15.607 billion CNY and small orders continuing to see net inflows of 13.412 billion CNY[22] - The majority of ETFs, including the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300, saw a decrease in turnover compared to the previous trading day[27] Global Market Performance - Major Asian indices showed mixed results, with the Hang Seng Index up by 0.51% and the Nikkei 225 up by 1.59%[31] - European indices generally rose, with the DAX Index increasing by 0.83% and the CAC40 Index by 1.37%[31] - In the US, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 1.14%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite increased by 0.78% and 0.61%, respectively[31]