Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the main Zhengzhou Cotton 2605 contract rose first and then fell, with a weekly increase of about 0.62%. The US cotton export signing volume continued to decline, while the domestic cotton market supply was relatively sufficient, and the inventory continued to increase. The downstream textile enterprises had limited orders, and some weaving mills might have an early holiday. However, the market generally expected a decline in the cotton planting area in the new year, which supported the cotton market to a certain extent. The short - term cotton price center is expected to continue to rise. Attention should be paid to the impact of macro and policy factors [8] Summary by Directory 1. Week - by - Week Highlights Summary Market Review - This week, the price of the main Zhengzhou Cotton 2605 contract rose first and then fell, with a weekly increase of about 0.62% [8] Market Outlook - As of the week ending January 1, 2026, the net increase in export sales of US upland cotton in the 2025/26 season was 98,000 bales, a decrease of 27% from the previous week and 49% from the average of the previous four weeks. The export shipment volume was 154,000 bales, an increase of 9% from the previous week and 18% from the average of the previous four weeks. The domestic cotton market supply is relatively sufficient, and the inventory continues to increase. The downstream textile enterprises have limited orders, and some weaving mills may have an early holiday. The short - term cotton price center is expected to continue to rise [8] Future Trading Tips - Pay attention to changes in foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory [9] 2. Futures and Spot Market US Cotton Market - This week, the price of the US cotton March contract rose, with a weekly increase of about 0.78%. As of December 30, 2025, the non - commercial long positions of US cotton were 81,162 lots, an increase of 722 lots from the previous week; the non - commercial short positions were 112,119 lots, an increase of 46 lots from the previous week; the net short positions were 30,957 lots, a decrease of 676 lots from the previous week [14] Foreign Cotton Spot Market - As of the week ending January 1, 2026, the net increase in export sales of US upland cotton in the 2025/26 season was 98,000 bales, a decrease of 27% from the previous week and 49% from the average of the previous four weeks. This week, the international cotton spot price was 75.05 cents per pound, an increase of 0.75 cents per pound from the previous week [20] Futures Market - This week, the price of the Zhengzhou Cotton 2605 contract rose first and then fell, with a weekly increase of about 0.62%. The cotton yarn futures 2603 contract rose 0.51%. As of this week, the net positions of the top twenty in cotton futures were - 177,522 lots, and the net positions of the top twenty in cotton yarn futures were - 1,948 lots. The number of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange cotton futures warehouse receipts was 7,388, and the number of cotton yarn futures warehouse receipts was 20 [23][30][34] Spot Market - As of January 9, 2026, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,930 yuan per ton. The spot price of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 21,300 yuan per ton, CY index: OEC10s (rotor - spun yarn) was 15,130 yuan per ton; CY index: OEC10s (combed yarn) was 24,300 yuan per ton [45][55] Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost - As of January 9, 2026, the sliding - scale duty price of imported cotton was 13,729 yuan per ton, a decrease of 201 yuan per ton from the previous week; the quota price of imported cotton was 12,599 yuan per ton, a decrease of 323 yuan per ton from the previous week. As of January 8, 2026, the import cotton yarn price index (FCY Index): port pick - up price: C21S was 20,155 yuan per ton; C32S was 21,326 yuan per ton; JC32S was 23,080 yuan per ton [59] Imported Cotton Price Cost - Profit - As of January 9, 2026, the estimated profit of imported cotton with sliding - scale duty was 2,263 yuan per ton, an increase of 637 yuan per ton from the previous week; the estimated profit of imported cotton with quota was 1,475 yuan per ton, an increase of 759 yuan per ton from the previous week [63] 3. Industry Situation Supply Side - As of the end of November 2025, the national commercial cotton inventory was 4.6836 million tons, an increase of 1.753 million tons from the previous month, an increase of 59.82%, and 10,000 tons higher than the same period last year, an increase of 0.21%. The in - stock industrial cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 939,600 tons, an increase of 51,400 tons from the end of the previous month. In November 2025, China's total cotton imports were about 120,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.4%; from January to November 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 890,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 64%. In November 2025, China imported 110,000 tons of cotton yarn, a month - on - month decrease of 30,000 tons [68][75] Mid - end Industry - As of the end of November 2025, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 26.33 days, an increase of 0.21 days from the previous month. The grey fabric inventory was 32.34 days, an increase of 0.37 days from the previous month [78] Terminal Consumption - In November 2025, China's textile and clothing export volume was 23.87 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2%, a month - on - month increase of 7.20%. Among them, textile exports were 12.28 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 1%; clothing exports were 11.59 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 10.9%. As of October 31, 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing were 864.54 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 13.90%, and the cumulative year - on - year increase was 2.9%, a month - on - month increase of 20.83% [84][88] 4. Options and Stock - related Markets Options Market - This week's implied volatility of at - the - money options for cotton is presented in the report, but specific data is not detailed [89] Stock Market - The report shows the price - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis is provided [92]

北京时间1月9日，美国洲际交易所(ICE)棉花期货价格缓慢爬升，开盘报64.41美分/磅，现报64.50美分/ 磅，涨幅0.16%，盘中最高触及64.52美分/磅，最低下探64.41美分/磅。 更新时间： 棉花期货行情回顾： 1月8日美国洲际交易所(ICE)棉花期货行情 1月8日，全国3128皮棉到厂均价15883元/吨，跌280.00元/吨；全国32s纯棉纱环锭纺价格22089元/吨， 平；纺纱利润为-1382.3元/吨，涨308.00元/吨。 巴西出口：巴西12月出口了创纪录的452,500吨棉花，受亚洲国家高需求推动。 品种 开盘价 最高价 最低价 收盘价 美棉花 64.82 64.91 64.46 64.62 -0.60% 【棉花市场消息速递】 据美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)最新数据，截至1月2日，美棉ON-call未点价卖出订单46251手，环比 减少1927手；未点价买入订单88321手，环比减少706手；ICE期棉2603合约上卖方未点价合约为18662 手，较此前一周减少1977手。 ...

成文日期：20260106 报告周期:日报 研究员：游镇齐（从业资格号：F3012673;投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012990) 棉花期货日报 1 期货市场 棉花期货主力合约 CF2605 收盘价 14,855 元/吨，上涨 1.05%，日内最高价 14,885 元/吨,最低价 14,640 元/吨,成交量 394,098 手，成交额 29.09 亿元，市场交投活跃。 数据来源:wh6. : 棉花 CF605 分时图 2 现货市场 本公司建议交易者应考虑本报告的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定情形,在任何情 况下,本报告中的信息或所表述的意见仅供参考,并不构成对任何人的交易建议。本公 司不对投资者因使用本报告中的内容所引致的损失承担任何责任。 同时提醒期货交易者,期市有风险,入市需谨慎! 研究咨询: 028 6130 3163 邮箱: institute@gjgh.com.cn 投诉热线:4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 截至 2025 年 12 月 15 日，全国棉花商业库存 534.90 万吨，工 业库存 98.39 万吨;中国纱线价格指数（C32S）报 21,240 元/吨; 新疆棉现 ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 7 日 棉花：维持强势 20260107 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 棉花基本面数据 | | 名 称 | 单 位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | CF2605 CY2603 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 14,855 20,875 | 1.36% 1.46% | 15030 21020 | 1.18% 0.69% | | | ICE美棉3 | 美分/磅 | 65.14 | 0.77% | | - | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | CF2605 | 手 | 503,809 | -131,926 | 1,205,941 | 45,691 | | | CY2603 | 手 | 10,324 | -1,999 | 18,697 | 1,045 | | | | | 昨日仓单量 | 较前日变动 | 有效预报 | 较前日变动 | | | 郑棉 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of cotton remain strong due to supportive market factors, with upward potential in the long - term, but there may be short - term回调 risks. The report expects US cotton to trade in a range and Zhengzhou cotton to trend upward with possible short - term corrections. For the cotton market, it is recommended to be cautious in trading strategies. The cotton yarn market has weak demand, with prices remaining stable and trading light [6][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Market Information - **Futures Market**: CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts all closed higher, with trading volume and open interest changes varying. CY01 remained flat, while CY05 and CY09 closed higher. Trading volume and open interest also changed accordingly [2]. - **Spot Market**: The price of CCIndex3128B was 15,615 yuan/ton, and the price of Cot A was 74.30 cents/pound. The price of polyester staple fiber increased by 70 yuan/ton, while the price of viscose staple fiber remained unchanged [2]. - **Spread**: Cotton and cotton yarn inter - period spreads and cross - variety spreads all had different degrees of change [2]. Second Part: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - As of December 30, the drought index in the main US cotton - producing areas continued to rise, and it is expected to worsen in Q1. As of December 19, ICE cotton futures' ON - CALL data showed a decrease in the number of un - priced contracts. As of December 27, the progress of cotton planting in Brazil in the 2025/26 season accelerated, but it was still behind the average of the past three years [4][5]. Trading Logic - The rumored reduction in cotton production in Xinjiang has been gradually confirmed. Cotton sales are progressing rapidly, and there are positive expectations for consumption. China's signing of US cotton contracts also provides upward momentum. Overall, the cotton fundamentals are strong, but there may be short - term回调 risks [6]. Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: US cotton is expected to trade in a range, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to trend upward with possible short - term corrections [8]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold off on trading [9]. - **Options**: Hold off on trading [10]. Cotton Yarn Industry News - Today, the price of pure cotton yarn remained stable, with light trading. After the New Year's Day holiday, most spinning mills have resumed production, but the downstream demand is weak, and the market's purchasing enthusiasm is low, with most buyers making small - order purchases as needed [10]. Third Part: Options - **Volatility**: The 10 - day HV of cotton increased slightly compared to the previous day. The implied volatilities of different option contracts were 6.7%, 11.4%, and 17.8% respectively [12]. - **Options Strategy**: Hold off on trading [14]. Fourth Part: Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the 1% tariff - based domestic and foreign cotton price spread, cotton basis for different months, spreads between cotton yarn and cotton futures contracts, and spreads between different cotton futures contracts [16][19][23][24].

北京时间1月5日，美国洲际交易所(ICE)棉花期货价格震荡上行，开盘报64.30美分/磅，现报64.40美分/ 磅，涨幅0.61%，盘中最高触及64.42美分/磅，最低下探64.24美分/磅。 品种 开盘价 最高价 最低价 收盘价 美棉花 64.28 64.44 63.68 63.87 -0.64% 【棉花市场消息速递】 1月2日美国洲际交易所(ICE)棉花期货行情 截至2026年1月3日，全国新年度棉花公证检验量累计649.46万吨。 2025/26年度全国棉花加工企业按照棉花质量检验体制改革方案的要求加工棉花并进行公证检验统计， 截至2025年01月04日24点，累计公检2898.34万包，合计654.25万吨，同比增加13.7%，新疆棉累计公检 量646.56万吨，其中，锯齿细绒棉检验数量2885.56万包，皮辊细绒棉检验数量16917包，长绒棉检验数 量11.09万包。 更新时间： 国家统计局近日发布的数据显示，2025年，全国棉花产量664.1万吨，比上年增加47.7万吨，增长 7.7%。 棉花期货行情回顾： ...

【基本面跟踪】 棉花：维持震荡偏强走势 20251231 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 棉花基本面数据 | | 名 称 | 单 位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | CF2605 | 元/吨 | 14,560 | 0.87% | 14570 | 0.07% | | | CY2603 | 元/吨 | 20,605 | 0.56% | 20575 | -0.15% | | | ICE美棉3 | 美分/磅 | 64.3 | -0.06% | | - | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | CF2605 | 手 | 537,129 | -127,069 | 1,139,140 | -10,656 | | | CY2603 | 手 | 10,923 | -1,999 | 20,870 | 1,045 | | | | | 昨日仓单量 | 较前日变动 | 有效预报 | 较前日变动 | | | 郑棉 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of cotton remain strong with upward potential in the long - term due to factors like the expected reduction in Xinjiang's cotton planting area, fast sales progress, improved Sino - US relations, and the expected expansion of Xinjiang textile mills' production capacity. However, there may be short - term回调 risks as cotton prices rose rapidly on Friday [6][7]. - The US cotton is expected to trade in a range, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be bullish with short - term回调 risks. For trading strategies, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options [8][9][10]. - The cotton yarn market is expected to回调 in the short - term due to weak downstream demand and sufficient supply. The trading in the pure cotton yarn market is light, and the full - cotton grey fabric market has weak sales [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Market Information - **Futures Market**: The prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts decreased by 95, 100, and 100 respectively; CY01, CY05, and CY09 contracts decreased by 350, 95, and 160 respectively. The trading volume and open interest of most contracts decreased [2]. - **Spot Market**: CCIndex3128B increased by 262 to 15541 yuan/ton, Cot A remained at 74.20 cents/pound, and the prices of some other varieties had different changes [2]. - **Spread**: In the cotton and cotton yarn inter - period spreads, the spreads and their changes varied; in the inter - variety spreads, the spreads and their changes also showed different trends [2]. Second Part: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - **US Retail and Inventory Data**: In October 2025, the US clothing and apparel retail sales reached $27.128 billion, a year - on - year increase of 5.72% and a month - on - month increase of 0.87%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative retail sales reached $264.202 billion, a year - on - year increase of 5.34%. In September 2025, the US clothing and apparel retailer inventory was $58.488 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.39% and a month - on - month increase of 0.48%. In September 2025, the inventory - to - sales ratio was 2.17, a year - on - year decrease of 0.15 and a month - on - month increase of 0.03 [4]. - **Zhangjiagang Cotton Inventory**: As of December 22, 2025, the total cotton inventory in Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone was 34,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.39%. The proportion of cotton from different countries changed. The inventory had a net increase, and it is expected that Brazilian cotton will continue to increase, while Australian cotton will mainly be out of storage [5]. - **National Cotton Inspection**: As of December 28, 1088 cotton processing enterprises nationwide had conducted notarized inspections, with a total inspection weight of 6.204 million tons. Among them, 1013 enterprises in Xinjiang had an inspection weight of 6.131 million tons, and 75 enterprises in the inland had an inspection weight of 73,000 tons [5]. Trading Logic - The expected reduction in Xinjiang's cotton planting area, fast sales progress, improved Sino - US relations, and the expected expansion of Xinjiang textile mills' production capacity support the fundamentals of cotton. China's recent signing of US cotton contracts also provides upward momentum for US cotton. The cotton price has an obvious upward trend, but there may be short - term回调 risks [6][7]. Trading Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: US cotton is expected to trade in a range, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be bullish with short - term回调 risks [8]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait - and - see [9]. - **Options**: Wait - and - see [10]. Cotton Yarn Industry News - The Zhengzhou cotton futures are at a high level but are expected to回调 in the short - term due to weak downstream demand and sufficient supply. The trading in the pure cotton yarn market is light, and only medium - and high - count yarns are performing well. The full - cotton grey fabric market has weak sales, and small and medium - sized weaving mills are expected to have holidays during the New Year's Day [10]. Third Part: Options - **Option Contract Data**: The report provides data on option contracts such as CF601C13400.CZC, CF601P13000.CZC, and CF601P12400.CZC, including closing prices, price changes, implied volatility, and other indicators [12]. - **Volatility**: The 10 - day HV of cotton increased slightly compared to the previous day. The implied volatilities of different option contracts were 6.7%, 11.4%, and 17.8% respectively [12]. - **Option Strategy**: Wait - and - see [14]. Fourth Part: Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the 1% tariff - based domestic and international cotton price spread, cotton 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month basis, CY05 - CF05 and CY01 - CF01 spreads, and CF9 - 1 and CF5 - 9 spreads [16][19][23][24].

Morning session notice 早盘提示 Morning session notice 研究员： 王子健 从业资格：F03087965 交易咨询资格：Z0019551 联系方式：17803978037 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ICE3 | 月合约结算价 | 64.24 | 涨 | 23 | 点，5 | 月 | 65.49 | 涨 | 29 | 点，7 | 月 | 66.58 | 涨 | 31 | 点；成 | 交约 | 2.6 | 万手。 | | | | | | | | | | 郑棉总成交 | 452688 | 手，持仓 | 1132769 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年12月29日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：2026新疆棉种植面积调控，预计可能减幅超10%。ICAC11月报：25/26年度产量 2540万吨，消费2500万吨。USDA11月报：25/26年度产量2614.5万吨，消费2588.3万吨，期末 库存1653.2万吨。海关：11月纺织品服装出口238.69亿美元，同比下降5.12%。11月份我国棉 花进口12万吨，同比增加9.4%；棉纱进口15万吨，同比增加25%。农村部12月25/26年度：产 量670万吨，进口140万吨，消费760万吨，期末库存835万吨。偏多。 2、基差：现货3128 ...