Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The domestic cotton futures market lacks new driving forces. The trend strength of cotton is rated as neutral with a score of 0 [1][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2605 closed at 15,395 yuan/ton yesterday with a -0.16% daily increase and 15,435 yuan/ton in the night session with a 0.26% increase. CY2605 closed at 21,435 yuan/ton yesterday with a -0.95% daily increase and 21,415 yuan/ton in the night session with a -0.09% increase. ICE US Cotton 5 closed at 69.47 cents/pound with a 0.04% daily increase. The trading volume of CF2605 was 467,146 lots, an increase of 70,249 lots from the previous day, and the open - interest was 1,087,852 lots, an increase of 16,296 lots. The trading volume of CY2605 was 10,775 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the open - interest was 9,504 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 12,434, a decrease of 10 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 339, unchanged from the previous day. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 222, a decrease of 5 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 78, an increase of 160 [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The price of North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 16,644 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of South Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 16,583 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price in Shandong was 16,849 yuan/ton, an increase of 88 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price in Hebei was 16,875 yuan/ton, an increase of 89 yuan/ton from the previous day. The 3128B index was 16,814 yuan/ton, an increase of 69 yuan/ton from the previous day. The Cotlook:A index was 80.10 cents/pound, an increase of 1.25 cents/pound from the previous day. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 22,280 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 22,609 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - **Spread Data**: The CF5 - 9 spread was - 135 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spread between North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 was 1,250 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot Situation**: According to TTEB information, the overall basis of domestic cotton spot is stable. The mainstream negotiable basis of 2025/26 North Xinjiang machine - picked 4129/29B with impurity within 3.5 and micronaire value above 4 is mostly in the range of CF05 + 1350 - 1450, and many quotes are above 1400, for self - pick - up in Xinjiang. The mainstream basis of 2025/26 North and South Xinjiang machine - picked 3130/30 in Shandong and Henan warehouses with micronaire value above 4 and impurity within 3 is mostly in the range of CF05+1550 - 1850, and most quotes are above 1600, for self - pick - up in the inland [2] - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises Situation**: According to TTEB information, the quotes of pure - cotton yarn are generally stable, and the market trading is dull. Recently, new orders and inquiries for regular yarn and medium - low - count yarn (including rotor - spun yarn) of textile enterprises are few, the shipment of rotor - spun yarn is weak, and some enterprises offer discounts. For combed high - count yarn, most manufacturers had full orders before, but recently some textile enterprises have spare machines [2] - **US Cotton Situation**: Last Friday, ICE cotton futures fluctuated widely during the day. In the early morning, ICE cotton continued to rise, and the May contract once reached 70.31 cents/pound, a new high this year. However, then there were profit - taking orders, and the May contract retreated to 68.88 cents/pound at most. It rebounded slightly in the late trading and finally closed at 69.47 cents/pound [2] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The range of trend intensity is an integer in the range of [- 2,2], where - 2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - In the domestic market, the supply pressure has increased as a large amount of cotton has arrived at ports, leading to a significant increase in port inventory. As of March 5th, the inventory at major ports for imported cotton was 556,500 tons, a 3.42% increase from the previous period. On the consumption side, downstream consumption is gradually recovering. The market is mainly focused on fulfilling previous orders, with limited new orders. The inventory of finished products has relatively decreased, and the pressure is limited. Given that the current market is in the traditional peak consumption season of "Golden March and Silver April", it is expected that the upward trend of cotton prices will remain unchanged in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Zhengzhou cotton futures contract was 15,320 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the closing price of the main cotton yarn futures contract was 21,280 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was -204,862 hands, an increase of 11,395 hands; the net position of the top 20 in cotton yarn futures was -1,391 hands, an increase of 108 hands. - The position volume of the main cotton futures contract was 721,678 hands, a decrease of 27,883 hands; the position volume of the main cotton yarn futures contract was 14,083 hands, a decrease of 435 hands. - The number of cotton warehouse receipts was 11,950, an increase of 303; the number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 43, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) was 16,733 yuan/ton, up 101 yuan; the China Yarn Price Index for pure - combed cotton yarn of 32 - count was 22,000 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan. - The arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index for pure - combed cotton yarn of 32 - count was 22,033 yuan/ton, up 158 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index for pure - combed cotton yarn of 32 - count was 23,525 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area was 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output was 6.16 million tons, an increase of 540,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference was 5,267 yuan/ton, a decrease of 61 yuan. - The industrial inventory of cotton nationwide was 861,000 tons, an increase of 13,000 tons. - The monthly import volume of cotton was 180,000 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn was 170,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons. - The profit from importing cotton was 3,038 yuan/ton, an increase of 63 yuan; the commercial inventory of cotton nationwide was 5.7887 million tons, an increase of 4,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The inventory days of yarn were 21.71 days, a decrease of 3.41 days; the inventory days of grey cloth were 33.13 days, a decrease of 0.63 days. - The monthly output of cloth was 3.01 billion meters, an increase of 200 million meters; the monthly output of yarn was 2.132 million tons, an increase of 93,000 tons. - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 134,124,120,000 US dollars, an increase of 18,187,260,000 US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 125,796,030,000 US dollars, an increase of 30,387,000 US dollars [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton was 21.03%, an increase of 2.61%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton was 21.07%, an increase of 2.65%. - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton was 14.68%, a decrease of 1.36%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton was 13.76%, unchanged [2] Industry News - According to data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, as of March 3, 2026, the non - commercial long positions in US cotton were 112,260 hands, an increase of 8,836 hands from the previous week; the non - commercial short positions were 140,357 hands, an increase of 7,963 hands from the previous week; the net short positions were 28,097 hands, a decrease of 873 hands from the previous week. - ICE cotton futures rose on Monday, supported by bargain - hunting after last week's price drop. Traders are closely monitoring the tense situation in the Middle East. The ICE May cotton futures contract closed up 0.42 cents, or 0.65%, at 64.62 cents per pound [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of cotton have certain support. Considering the reduction in global cotton production and the potential for increased consumption, there may be a tight - balance situation. It is advisable to consider building long positions on dips. The short - term trend of US cotton is likely to be range - bound, while the technical performance of Zhengzhou cotton is strong. It is recommended to build long positions on dips and not to chase high prices. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [7][8][9] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Information - **Futures Disk**: The closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts decreased by 75, 50, and 45 respectively; the closing price of CY05 decreased by 45, and CY09 increased by 20. The trading volume of CF01 increased by 219, while that of CF05 and CF09 decreased by 25667 and 8358 respectively. The trading volume of CY05 increased by 1324, and CY09 increased by 7. The open interest of CF01 increased by 1238, CF09 increased by 2369, and CY05 decreased by 499 [2] - **Spot Price**: The price of CCIndex3128B decreased by 62, Cot A increased from 74.95 to 75.90, the price of FC Index:M: to - port decreased by 1.00, the price of polyester staple fiber increased by 70, and the price of FCY IndexC33S increased by 59. The prices of other spot products remained unchanged [2] - **Spread**: In cotton inter - period spreads, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 25, the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 5, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 30. In yarn inter - period spreads, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 45, the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 65, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 20. In cross - variety spreads, CY01 - CF01 increased by 75, CY05 - CF05 increased by 5, and CY09 - CF09 increased by 65. The 1% tariff internal - external cotton spread increased by 115, the sliding - scale internal - external cotton spread increased by 61, and the internal - external yarn spread decreased by 59 [2] 3.2 Market News and Views - **Cotton Market News**: On March 4, 2026, the road transportation price index of Xinjiang - bound cotton was 0.1472 yuan/ton·km, remaining unchanged from the previous day. In December 2025/26, India's棉纱 export volume was 10.14 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.01% and a month - on - month increase of 11.64%. From August to December 2025, India's total棉纱 export volume was 45.6 tons. In January 2026, Japan's clothing imports rebounded month - on - month, with an import value of 17.8 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 6.33% and a month - on - month increase of 16.45% [5][6] - **Trading Logic**: The fundamentals of cotton have no obvious negative factors. Global cotton production has been reduced by 3% (US production has been reduced, and China's by 9%). The supply is expected to be 2525 and consumption 2614, showing a relatively tight situation. As of February 12, the signing of US cotton improved, with 10.57 tons signed, a month - on - month increase of 5.33 tons, and the cumulative signing was 192.79 tons, 7 percentage points lower than the same period last year [7] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, it is recommended to build long positions on dips for Zhengzhou cotton and not to chase high prices. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [8][9] - **Cotton Yarn Industry News**: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market is light. Spinning mills are mainly fulfilling previous orders, and downstream fabric mills and traders are making rigid purchases. Some yarn mills reduced prices yesterday, but most are still waiting and seeing, with a trading discount of 200 - 300 yuan. The operating rate of inland spinning mills is gradually recovering. The operating rate of fabric mills is basically stable, but production is limited due to a shortage of workers. The in - production orders are mainly from before the Spring Festival, and new orders are still scarce [10][12] 3.3 Options - **Option Contract Information**: On January 19, 2026, the closing prices of CF605C14600.CZC, CF605C14200.CZC, and CF605P13800.CZC decreased by 16.9%, 17.7%, and 34.1% respectively. The implied volatilities were 13.3%, 11.3%, and 11.2% respectively [13] - **Volatility and Strategy**: The 60 - day HV of cotton increased slightly compared to the previous day. The PCR of the main contract's open interest was 0.8667, and the PCR of the main contract's trading volume was 0.4688. The trading volumes of both call and put options decreased today. It is recommended to wait and see for options [13][14][15] 3.4 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the 1% tariff internal - external cotton price spread, cotton 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month basis, CY05 - CF05 and CY01 - CF01 spreads, CF9 - 1 spread, and CF5 - 9 spread [16][17][21]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an agricultural product research report focusing on cotton and cotton yarn, dated February 24, 2026 [1] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - CF01 contract closed at 15,140, down 70, with a trading volume of 472 lots (down 452) and an open interest of 5,483 lots (up 84) [2] - CF05 contract closed at 14,610, down 70, with a trading volume of 246,422 lots (down 13,325) and an open interest of 700,704 lots (down 270) [2] - CF09 contract closed at 14,735, down 70, with a trading volume of 55,110 lots (down 3,624) and an open interest of 169,643 lots (up 4,673) [2] - CY01 contract closed at 0, with no change, no trading volume, and no open interest [2] - CY05 contract closed at 20,360, down 45, with a trading volume of 6,709 lots (down 536) and an open interest of 11,525 lots (up 360) [2] - CY09 contract closed at 20,600, down 25, with a trading volume of 1 lot (down 4) and an open interest of 32 lots (up 1) [2] Spot Market - CCIndex3128B was priced at 15,967 yuan/ton, down 45 [2] - Cot A was priced at 72.80 cents/pound, compared to 73.20 previously [2] - FC Index:M: arrival price was 71.46, down 0.08 [2] - Polyester staple fiber was priced at 7,450 yuan/ton, up 70 [2] - Viscose staple fiber was priced at 12,600 yuan/ton, with no change [2] Price Spreads - Cotton inter - month spreads: 1 - 5 spread was 530, no change; 5 - 9 spread was - 125, no change; 9 - 1 spread was - 405, no change [2] - Cotton yarn inter - month spreads: 1 - 5 spread was - 20,360, up 45; 5 - 9 spread was - 240, down 20; 9 - 1 spread was 20,600, down 25 [2] - Cross - variety spreads: CY01 - CF01 was - 15,140, up 70; CY05 - CF05 was 5,750, up 25; CY09 - CF09 was 5,865, up 45 [2] - Domestic - foreign spreads: 1% tariff domestic - foreign cotton spread was 2,955, down 15; sliding - scale domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1,991, down 24; domestic - foreign yarn spread was 397, up 25 [2] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - As of February 17, the drought index in the main U.S. cotton - producing areas (93.0%) was 212, up 2 month - on - month and 86 year - on - year. The drought index in Texas was 232, up 2 month - on - month and 66 year - on - year. Drought is expected to continue from February to April, intensify in the Midwest, and ease in the eastern regions [4] - As of February 21, Brazil's 2025/26 cotton planting was 99.9% complete, up 3.4 percentage points month - on - month, flat year - on - year, and basically in line with the three - year average [4] - As of the week of February 20, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of U.S. upland cotton + Pima cotton was 3.0275 million tons, accounting for 99.9% of the estimated annual U.S. cotton output, 5% slower year - on - year. The inspection volume of U.S. upland cotton was 2.9414 million tons, with an inspection progress of 99.9%, down 4% year - on - year; the inspection volume of Pima cotton was 86,100 tons, with an inspection progress of 101.9%, down 16% year - on - year. The weekly deliverable ratio was 77.2%, and the quarterly deliverable ratio was 81.7%, 1.1 percentage points higher year - on - year. The final listed volume is expected to be around 3.03 - 3.05 million tons [5] Trading Logic - The total open interest on the futures market increased by more than 70,000 lots. The overall macro - sentiment during the holiday was positive, with gold, silver, non - ferrous metals, and crude oil rising, which supported cotton prices. Fundamentally, there are no obvious negative factors. According to the USDA annual report, the global cotton output was reduced by 3% (U.S. total output was reduced, and China's was reduced by 9%). The supply is expected to be 25.25 million tons, and consumption is expected to be 26.14 million tons, showing a relatively tight balance. If future consumption continues to increase, there may be a tight - balance situation. As of February 12, U.S. cotton contracts were 105,700 tons, an increase of 53,300 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative contracts were 1.9279 million tons, 7 percentage points lower year - on - year. The technical chart of the current futures market has broken through the previous high, which may attract speculative funds. The futures market is expected to maintain an upward trend [6] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is expected that the short - term trend of U.S. cotton will be mainly range - bound, while the technical performance of Zhengzhou cotton is strong. Consider building long positions on dips [7] - Arbitrage: Hold off [8] - Options: Hold off [9] Cotton Yarn Industry News - The trading in the pure cotton yarn market has basically stagnated, with only a small amount of goods being sold in Xinjiang. Some spinning mills have raised their quotes, and inland spinning mills have started to take holidays [11] - As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the market for all - cotton grey fabric has basically stopped, and traders' stores have closed as they return home. Most fabric mills have also stopped quoting prices, and prices are temporarily stable [11] Group 4: Options Option Data - On January 19, 2026, for the CF605C14600.CZC option, the underlying contract price was 14,545.00, the closing price was 334.00, down 16.9%, with an implied volatility of 13.3% [13] - For the CF605C14200.CZC option, the underlying contract price was 14,545.00, the closing price was 511.00, down 17.7%, with an implied volatility of 11.3% [13] - For the CF605P13800.CZC option, the underlying contract price was 14,545.00, the closing price was 60.00, down 34.1%, with an implied volatility of 11.2% [13] Volatility and Strategy - The 60 - day HV of cotton yesterday was 9.2812, with a slight increase in volatility. The implied volatility of CF605 - C - 14600 was 13.3%, CF605 - C - 14200 was 11.3%, and CF605 - P - 13800 was 11.2% [13] - Yesterday, the PCR of the main Zhengzhou cotton contract's open interest was 0.8667, and the PCR of the main contract's trading volume was 0.4688. The trading volumes of both call and put options decreased today. The option strategy is to hold off [14][15]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of cotton remain strong with upward potential in the long - run. It is recommended to build long positions on dips. In the short - term, ICE cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are likely to trade in a range [6][7] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Market Information - **Futures Market**: For cotton futures, CF01 closed at 15190 with a 75 - point increase, CF05 at 14650 (+75), and CF09 at 14780 (+95). For cotton yarn futures, CY01 closed at 20250 (unchanged), CY05 at 20495 (+35), and CY09 at 20750 (+245). Trading volumes and open interest showed various changes [2] - **Spot Market**: CCIndex3128B was at 15987 yuan/ton, down 196; Cot A was at 73.95 cents/pound. Different yarn and fiber prices had different changes, with some remaining stable [2] - **Spreads**: Cotton and cotton yarn inter - month spreads and cross - variety spreads also changed. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of cotton was 540 (unchanged) [2] 2. Market News and Views - **Cotton Market News** - As of January 31, 2026, Brazil's 2025/26 cotton planting was 78.6% complete, 18 percentage points higher month - on - month and 22.5 percentage points faster year - on - year [4] - As of January 30, 2026, the cumulative inspection of U.S. upland and Pima cotton was 296.18 million tons, accounting for 97.7% of the estimated annual output, 6% slower year - on - year [4] - As of February 1, the national cotton notarized inspection volume was 727.4 million tons, up 13.8% year - on - year, with Xinjiang accounting for 717.8 million tons (up 14.1%) and the inland area 9.6 million tons (down 5.7%) [5] - **Trading Logic**: There are news that Xinjiang's cotton planting area is expected to decrease by 266 million mu in 2026, a 7% reduction. However, several textile projects in Xinjiang are expected to boost cotton consumption, so the cotton fundamentals are strong [6] - **Trading Strategy** - **Single - sided**: ICE cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are expected to trade in a range in the short - term. Consider building long positions on dips [7] - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [7] - **Options**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [8] - **Cotton Yarn Industry News** - Market trading has weakened, with traders and some fabric mills restocking on a small scale. Yarn mills' quotes are basically stable, while traders' quotes are slightly weak [9] - As the Spring Festival approaches, cotton fabric mills have fewer new orders, lower operating rates, and high finished - product inventories. Cotton fabric prices are expected to be stable in the short - term [9] 3. Options - The 60 - day HV of cotton was 9.2812 yesterday, with slightly increased volatility. The implied volatilities of different options were provided. The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton decreased in both open interest and trading volume [10] - Recommend a wait - and - see attitude for options [11] 4. Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the 1% tariff - based domestic and international cotton price spread, cotton basis for different months, and spreads between cotton yarn and cotton futures contracts [13][16][20][21]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The cotton sales progress remains fast, and the sales volume is at a high level in the same period over the years. The improvement of Sino-US relations and the expected expansion of Xinjiang textile mills in the new year support the fundamental upward trend. However, the previous bullish sentiment has been digested, and the cotton price has corrected. It is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. The cotton yarn market continues to be weak in the short term. [6][10] - For trading strategies, it is expected that the US cotton will likely fluctuate within a range in the short term, and Zhengzhou cotton is also expected to fluctuate within a range. For arbitrage and options, it is advisable to wait and see. [8][9][10] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Information - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts decreased by 150, 45, and 55 respectively; CY01 remained unchanged, CY05 decreased by 30, and CY09 remained unchanged. The trading volume of CF05 increased by 154,281, and that of CY05 decreased by 195. [2] - **Spot Market**: CCIndex3128B decreased by 17 yuan/ton, Cot A was 74.55 cents/pound, and the price of (FC Index):M: to - port decreased by 0.40. Among yarns, CY IndexC32S remained unchanged, and the price of Indian S - 6 remained unchanged. [2] - **Spreads**: In cotton inter - period spreads, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 105, the 5 - 9 spread increased by 10, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 95. In cotton yarn inter - period spreads, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 30, the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 30, and the 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged. [2] Market News and Views Cotton Market News - **ON - CALL Data**: As of January 16, the number of unpriced contracts of the ON - CALL 2603 contract by sellers decreased by 477 to 19,274, equivalent to a decrease of 10,000 tons compared to last week. The total number of unpriced contracts of sellers in the 2025/26 season increased by 2,449 to 40,722, equivalent to 920,000 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons compared to last week. The total number of unpriced contracts of ICE sellers increased to 52,321, equivalent to 1.19 million tons, an increase of 3,166 compared to last week, or 70,000 tons. [4] - **Brazilian Cotton Planting**: As of January 24, the cotton planting in Brazil in the 2025/26 season was 60.6% completed, a 24.3 - percentage - point increase from the previous period and 14.3 percentage points faster than the same period last year, but 2 percentage points slower than the average of the past three years. [4] - **US Cotton Inspection**: As of January 23, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton was 2.9374 million tons, accounting for 96.9% of the estimated US cotton production for the year, 7% slower than the same period last year. The inspection volume of US upland cotton was 2.8576 million tons, with an inspection progress of 97%, a 6% decrease year - on - year; the inspection volume of Pima cotton was 79,800 tons, with an inspection progress of 94.5%, 18% slower than the same period last year. [5] Trading Logic - The cotton sales progress is fast, and the improvement of Sino - US relations and the expected expansion of Xinjiang textile mills support the fundamental upward trend. However, the previous bullish sentiment has been digested, and the cotton price has corrected. It is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. [6] Trading Strategy - **Single - sided**: It is expected that the US cotton will likely fluctuate within a range in the short term, and Zhengzhou cotton is also expected to fluctuate within a range. [8] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see. [9] - **Options**: Wait and see. [10] Cotton Yarn Industry News - The domestic market of pure cotton yarn has been sluggish recently, with little improvement. The price of cotton yarn is weak, and the discount for transactions continues to expand. Traders and fabric mills make small - scale purchases, and some fabric mills plan to start their holidays at the end of this month. It is expected that the trading volume will continue to decrease, and the cotton yarn market will remain weak in the short term. [10] Options - **Volatility**: The 60 - day HV of cotton yesterday was 9.2812, with a slight increase in volatility compared to the previous day. The implied volatility of CF605 - C - 14600 was 13.3%, that of CF605 - C - 14200 was 11.3%, and that of CF605 - P - 13800 was 11.2%. [12] - **Options Strategy**: The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton yesterday was 0.8667, and the volume PCR of the main contract was 0.4688. The trading volumes of both call and put options decreased today. It is advisable to wait and see. [13][14] Relevant Attachments The report provides multiple figures, including the price difference between domestic and international cotton markets under 1% tariff, cotton basis in January, May, and September, the price difference between CY05 and CF05, CY01 and CF01, and the price differences of CF9 - 1 and CF5 - 9. [16][19][23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The cotton sales progress is still fast and at a high level in the same period of previous years. The downstream stocking willingness has increased, and textile mills have started to price one by one. Supported by market bullish factors, the cotton fundamentals remain strong. Although the cotton price has significantly corrected recently, it is expected to mainly fluctuate in a short - term range [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Information (First Part) - **Futures Market**: The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of various cotton (CF) and cotton yarn (CY) futures contracts are presented. For example, the CF01 contract closed at 15145 with a price increase of 5, and the CY05 contract closed at 20515 with a price decrease of 55 [2]. - **Spot Market**: Spot prices of various cotton and cotton yarn products are given, such as the CCIndex3128B cotton price at 15856 yuan/ton with a decrease of 75, and the CY IndexC32S cotton yarn price at 21300 yuan/ton with no change [2]. - **Price Spreads**: Different types of price spreads are provided, including cotton and cotton yarn inter - period spreads and cross - variety spreads. For example, the 1 - 5 month cotton inter - period spread is 620 with an increase of 25 [2]. 3.2 Market News and Views (Second Part) - **Cotton Market News** - As of January 19, 2026, the total cotton inventory in Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone was 35,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.33%. The inventory showed a small increase, with Brazilian and American cotton mainly for warehousing and no outbound shipments in the past half - month. The contract trading volume of the 2025/26 cotton season reached 621,520 tons as of January 6, equivalent to 16% of the estimated national output, and the pre - sale volume of the 2026/27 season was at least 73,000 tons [4]. - As of January 17, the cotton planting progress in Brazil in the 2025/26 season was 36.34%, a month - on - month increase of 4.4 percentage points, but slower than the same period last year and the average of the past three years, mainly due to stagnant planting in Bahia and slow planting in Mato Grosso [5]. - In December 2025, China's cotton imports were 180,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.3% and a year - on - year increase of 31.0%. In the 2025/26 season (from September 2025 to December 2025), the cumulative cotton imports were 490,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.1%. The cotton yarn imports in December 2025 were 170,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of about 15.10% and a year - on - year increase of about 11.9%. The cumulative cotton yarn imports in the 2025/26 season were about 590,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 18% [5]. - **Trading Logic**: The cotton sales progress is fast, and downstream stocking willingness has increased. Supported by bullish factors, the cotton fundamentals remain strong. After the recent significant correction, it is expected to mainly fluctuate in a short - term range [6]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: It is expected that the US cotton will likely fluctuate in a short - term range, and Zhengzhou cotton fundamentals remain strong, also expected to mainly fluctuate in a short - term range [7]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [7]. - Options: Wait and see [8]. - **Cotton Yarn Industry News** - The overall price of pure cotton yarn remained stable, with generally insufficient new orders and a weak market trading atmosphere. Some spinning mills reported a significant decrease in new orders, mainly fulfilling and digesting previous orders. Although foreign trade orders improved slightly, the boost to the overall market was limited [8]. - The sales of the whole - cotton grey cloth market remained the same as before, with prices mainly stable. In December 2025, the export volume of whole - cotton grey cloth was 48.85 million meters, a year - on - year increase of 9.3%, and the export value was 45.68 million US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 5.3%. The cumulative export volume from January to December 2025 was 639 million meters, a year - on - year increase of 23.17%, and the cumulative export value was 613 million US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 9.34%. The import volume in December 2025 was 37.87 million meters, a year - on - year increase of 26.95%, and the import value was 8.57 million US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 17.72%. The cumulative import volume from January to December 2025 was 350 million meters, a year - on - year increase of 15.82%, and the cumulative import value was 78.36 million US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 4.2% [9]. 3.3 Options (Third Part) - The closing prices, price changes, implied volatilities and other data of several cotton option contracts are presented. For example, the CF605C14600.CZC option contract closed at 334 on January 19, 2026, with a price decrease of 16.9% and an implied volatility of 13.3% [11]. - The 60 - day HV of cotton was 9.2812 yesterday, with a slight increase in volatility. The implied volatilities of different options were different [11]. - The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.8667 yesterday, and the PCR of trading volume was 0.4688. The trading volumes of both call and put options decreased today. The option strategy is to wait and see [12][14]. 3.4 Relevant Attachments (Fourth Part) - Multiple charts are presented, including the price spread between domestic and foreign cotton under 1% tariff, cotton basis for January, May, and September, the price spread between CY05 - CF05 and CY01 - CF01, and the price spreads of CF9 - 1 and CF5 - 9 [25][26]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The cotton market is continuing its adjustment trend. The domestic cotton spot trading has weakened, and the overall price of pure - cotton yarn has remained stable but with a slight downward shift in the actual transaction focus. The开机率 of inland spinning enterprises has declined slightly, and downstream weaving mills have limited new orders and high inventory of grey cloth, with low acceptance of high - priced yarns. The upward momentum of ICE cotton futures has weakened due to the strengthening of the US dollar. [1][2][3] 3. Key Points by Section 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - CF2605 closed at 14,760 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.92%, and its overnight price was 14745 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.10%. The trading volume was 710,353 lots, a decrease of 84,008 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 1,201,677 lots, an increase of 25,192 lots. - CY2603 closed at 20,765 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.61%, and its overnight price was 20820 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.26%. The trading volume was 10,121 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 16,032 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots. - ICE US cotton 3 closed at 64.93 cents/pound with a decline of 0.02%. [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: - The number of Zheng cotton warehouse receipts was 8,410, an increase of 642 compared to the previous day, and the valid forecast was 1,707, a decrease of 487. - The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 70, an increase of 10 compared to the previous day, and the valid forecast was 7, an increase of 43. [1] - **Spot Price Data**: - The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,590 yuan/ton, an increase of 140 yuan/ton compared to the previous day with a growth rate of 0.91%. - The price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,580 yuan/ton, an increase of 140 yuan/ton compared to the previous day with a growth rate of 0.91%. - The price in Shandong was 15,891 yuan/ton, a decrease of 43 yuan/ton compared to the previous day with a decline rate of - 0.27%. - The price in Hebei was 15,780 yuan/ton, a decrease of 47 yuan/ton compared to the previous day with a decline rate of - 0.30%. - The 3128B index was 15,783 yuan/ton, a decrease of 74 yuan/ton compared to the previous day with a decline rate of - 0.47%. - The international cotton index M: CNCottonM was 72.94 cents/pound, an increase of 0.66% compared to the previous day. - The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 21,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. - The arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 21,025 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton compared to the previous day with a growth rate of 0.02%. [1] - **Spread Data**: - The CF3 - 5 spread was 15 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. - The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 was 830 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The trading of domestic cotton spot has weakened. The low - basis - difference spot has decreased, and some cotton merchants have slightly raised the basis by 20 - 30 yuan/ton, with the overall basis center showing an upward trend. [2] - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The overall price of pure - cotton yarn has remained stable, but the actual transaction center has shifted slightly downward, and the overall market trading atmosphere is still weak. Recently, inland spinning enterprises have continuously reduced their operating rates slightly to avoid inventory accumulation risks, while spinning enterprises in Xinjiang still maintain a relatively high operating rate. Downstream weaving mills have limited new orders, high inventory of grey cloth, and low acceptance of high - priced yarns, mainly purchasing small orders based on rigid demand. [2] - **US Cotton**: ICE cotton futures fluctuated within a narrow range during the day yesterday, and the strengthening of the US dollar has weakened the upward momentum of ICE cotton futures. [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend, with the trend intensity ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish). [4][5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the cotton market remain strong due to supportive factors such as the expected reduction in cotton planting area in Xinjiang, fast sales progress, improved Sino - US relations, and expansion expectations of textile mills in Xinjiang. However, the cotton price has recently experienced a significant correction, and it is necessary to observe whether it can break through the 20 - day line. The short - term trend of US cotton is expected to be range - bound, and Zhengzhou cotton may have a short - term correction risk [4][5][6] - The overall price of domestic pure - cotton yarn remains stable, but the actual transaction center has moved down slightly, and the market trading atmosphere is still weak. The开机 rate of spinning mills in the inland region has declined, while that in Xinjiang remains high. The downstream fabric mills have limited new orders, high inventory, and low acceptance of high - priced yarn, and the market trading activity is further suppressed by the approaching Spring Festival [8] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - **Futures Market**: For cotton futures contracts (CF01, CF05, CF09), prices increased, with CF05 having the largest increase of 135. For yarn futures contracts (CY01, CY05, CY09), prices also showed an upward trend, except for CY01 which remained unchanged. The trading volume of most contracts decreased, and the open interest of some contracts changed [2] - **Spot Market**: The price of CCIndex3128B decreased by 147 yuan/ton, while the price of Cot A remained at 74.45 cents/pound. The price of polyester staple fiber increased by 70, and other spot prices remained mostly stable. In terms of spreads, there were changes in cotton and yarn inter - period spreads and cross - variety spreads [2] Market News and Views - **Cotton Market News**: According to USDA data, the global cotton production in 25/26 is 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons from last month; total demand increased by 70,000 tons to 25.89 million tons; and the ending inventory decreased by 320,000 tons to 16.22 million tons. As of January 10, the cotton planting progress in Brazil in 2025/26 was 31.9%, slower than the same period last year and the three - year average. As of January 9, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton and Pima cotton accounted for 89.2% of the estimated annual production, slower than the same period last year [4] - **Trading Logic**: The expected reduction in cotton planting area in Xinjiang has been gradually confirmed, and the sales progress is fast. With improved Sino - US relations and expansion expectations of textile mills in Xinjiang, the cotton fundamentals are strong. However, the price has recently corrected, and it is necessary to observe the 20 - day line [5] - **Trading Strategy**: For cotton, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach as the short - term trend of US cotton is expected to be range - bound, and Zhengzhou cotton may have a short - term correction risk. For arbitrage and options, a wait - and - see approach is also recommended [6][7] - **Cotton Yarn Industry News**: The overall price of domestic pure - cotton yarn remains stable, but the transaction is weak. The开机 rate of inland spinning mills has declined, while that in Xinjiang remains high. Downstream fabric mills have limited new orders, high inventory, and low acceptance of high - priced yarn. The cotton fabric market has weak trading, and most weavers expect to have an early holiday and are pessimistic about the market [8] Options - **Option Data**: Information such as the closing price, price change rate, implied volatility, and other parameters of cotton option contracts is provided. The 10 - day historical volatility of cotton increased slightly compared to the previous day. The trading volume of both call and put options decreased [10][11] - **Option Strategy**: A wait - and - see approach is recommended [12] Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the price spread between domestic and foreign cotton under 1% tariff, cotton basis in January, May, and September, the spread between yarn and cotton contracts, and the inter - period spread of cotton contracts [14][17][21]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the main Zhengzhou Cotton 2605 contract rose first and then fell, with a weekly increase of about 0.62%. The US cotton export signing volume continued to decline, while the domestic cotton market supply was relatively sufficient, and the inventory continued to increase. The downstream textile enterprises had limited orders, and some weaving mills might have an early holiday. However, the market generally expected a decline in the cotton planting area in the new year, which supported the cotton market to a certain extent. The short - term cotton price center is expected to continue to rise. Attention should be paid to the impact of macro and policy factors [8] Summary by Directory 1. Week - by - Week Highlights Summary Market Review - This week, the price of the main Zhengzhou Cotton 2605 contract rose first and then fell, with a weekly increase of about 0.62% [8] Market Outlook - As of the week ending January 1, 2026, the net increase in export sales of US upland cotton in the 2025/26 season was 98,000 bales, a decrease of 27% from the previous week and 49% from the average of the previous four weeks. The export shipment volume was 154,000 bales, an increase of 9% from the previous week and 18% from the average of the previous four weeks. The domestic cotton market supply is relatively sufficient, and the inventory continues to increase. The downstream textile enterprises have limited orders, and some weaving mills may have an early holiday. The short - term cotton price center is expected to continue to rise [8] Future Trading Tips - Pay attention to changes in foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory [9] 2. Futures and Spot Market US Cotton Market - This week, the price of the US cotton March contract rose, with a weekly increase of about 0.78%. As of December 30, 2025, the non - commercial long positions of US cotton were 81,162 lots, an increase of 722 lots from the previous week; the non - commercial short positions were 112,119 lots, an increase of 46 lots from the previous week; the net short positions were 30,957 lots, a decrease of 676 lots from the previous week [14] Foreign Cotton Spot Market - As of the week ending January 1, 2026, the net increase in export sales of US upland cotton in the 2025/26 season was 98,000 bales, a decrease of 27% from the previous week and 49% from the average of the previous four weeks. This week, the international cotton spot price was 75.05 cents per pound, an increase of 0.75 cents per pound from the previous week [20] Futures Market - This week, the price of the Zhengzhou Cotton 2605 contract rose first and then fell, with a weekly increase of about 0.62%. The cotton yarn futures 2603 contract rose 0.51%. As of this week, the net positions of the top twenty in cotton futures were - 177,522 lots, and the net positions of the top twenty in cotton yarn futures were - 1,948 lots. The number of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange cotton futures warehouse receipts was 7,388, and the number of cotton yarn futures warehouse receipts was 20 [23][30][34] Spot Market - As of January 9, 2026, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,930 yuan per ton. The spot price of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 21,300 yuan per ton, CY index: OEC10s (rotor - spun yarn) was 15,130 yuan per ton; CY index: OEC10s (combed yarn) was 24,300 yuan per ton [45][55] Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost - As of January 9, 2026, the sliding - scale duty price of imported cotton was 13,729 yuan per ton, a decrease of 201 yuan per ton from the previous week; the quota price of imported cotton was 12,599 yuan per ton, a decrease of 323 yuan per ton from the previous week. As of January 8, 2026, the import cotton yarn price index (FCY Index): port pick - up price: C21S was 20,155 yuan per ton; C32S was 21,326 yuan per ton; JC32S was 23,080 yuan per ton [59] Imported Cotton Price Cost - Profit - As of January 9, 2026, the estimated profit of imported cotton with sliding - scale duty was 2,263 yuan per ton, an increase of 637 yuan per ton from the previous week; the estimated profit of imported cotton with quota was 1,475 yuan per ton, an increase of 759 yuan per ton from the previous week [63] 3. Industry Situation Supply Side - As of the end of November 2025, the national commercial cotton inventory was 4.6836 million tons, an increase of 1.753 million tons from the previous month, an increase of 59.82%, and 10,000 tons higher than the same period last year, an increase of 0.21%. The in - stock industrial cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 939,600 tons, an increase of 51,400 tons from the end of the previous month. In November 2025, China's total cotton imports were about 120,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.4%; from January to November 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 890,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 64%. In November 2025, China imported 110,000 tons of cotton yarn, a month - on - month decrease of 30,000 tons [68][75] Mid - end Industry - As of the end of November 2025, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 26.33 days, an increase of 0.21 days from the previous month. The grey fabric inventory was 32.34 days, an increase of 0.37 days from the previous month [78] Terminal Consumption - In November 2025, China's textile and clothing export volume was 23.87 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2%, a month - on - month increase of 7.20%. Among them, textile exports were 12.28 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 1%; clothing exports were 11.59 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 10.9%. As of October 31, 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing were 864.54 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 13.90%, and the cumulative year - on - year increase was 2.9%, a month - on - month increase of 20.83% [84][88] 4. Options and Stock - related Markets Options Market - This week's implied volatility of at - the - money options for cotton is presented in the report, but specific data is not detailed [89] Stock Market - The report shows the price - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis is provided [92]