研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2026 年 02 月 24 日 研究员：王玺圳、刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F03118729、F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0022817、Z0014425 研究所 农产品研发报告 第二部分 市场消息及观点 联系方式： :wangxizhen_qh@chin astock.com.cn 棉花、棉纱日报 第一部分 市场信息 | 期货盘面 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 增减幅 | 空盘量 | 增减量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CF01合约 | 15140 | -70 | 472 | -452 | 5,483 | 84 | | CF05合约 | 14610 | -70 | 246,422 | -13325 | 700,704 | -270 | | CF09合约 | 14735 | -70 | 55,110 | -3624 | 169,643 | 4673 | | CY01合约 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | CY05合约 | 20360 | -45 | 6709 | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of cotton remain strong with upward potential in the long - run. It is recommended to build long positions on dips. In the short - term, ICE cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are likely to trade in a range [6][7] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Market Information - **Futures Market**: For cotton futures, CF01 closed at 15190 with a 75 - point increase, CF05 at 14650 (+75), and CF09 at 14780 (+95). For cotton yarn futures, CY01 closed at 20250 (unchanged), CY05 at 20495 (+35), and CY09 at 20750 (+245). Trading volumes and open interest showed various changes [2] - **Spot Market**: CCIndex3128B was at 15987 yuan/ton, down 196; Cot A was at 73.95 cents/pound. Different yarn and fiber prices had different changes, with some remaining stable [2] - **Spreads**: Cotton and cotton yarn inter - month spreads and cross - variety spreads also changed. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of cotton was 540 (unchanged) [2] 2. Market News and Views - **Cotton Market News** - As of January 31, 2026, Brazil's 2025/26 cotton planting was 78.6% complete, 18 percentage points higher month - on - month and 22.5 percentage points faster year - on - year [4] - As of January 30, 2026, the cumulative inspection of U.S. upland and Pima cotton was 296.18 million tons, accounting for 97.7% of the estimated annual output, 6% slower year - on - year [4] - As of February 1, the national cotton notarized inspection volume was 727.4 million tons, up 13.8% year - on - year, with Xinjiang accounting for 717.8 million tons (up 14.1%) and the inland area 9.6 million tons (down 5.7%) [5] - **Trading Logic**: There are news that Xinjiang's cotton planting area is expected to decrease by 266 million mu in 2026, a 7% reduction. However, several textile projects in Xinjiang are expected to boost cotton consumption, so the cotton fundamentals are strong [6] - **Trading Strategy** - **Single - sided**: ICE cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are expected to trade in a range in the short - term. Consider building long positions on dips [7] - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [7] - **Options**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [8] - **Cotton Yarn Industry News** - Market trading has weakened, with traders and some fabric mills restocking on a small scale. Yarn mills' quotes are basically stable, while traders' quotes are slightly weak [9] - As the Spring Festival approaches, cotton fabric mills have fewer new orders, lower operating rates, and high finished - product inventories. Cotton fabric prices are expected to be stable in the short - term [9] 3. Options - The 60 - day HV of cotton was 9.2812 yesterday, with slightly increased volatility. The implied volatilities of different options were provided. The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton decreased in both open interest and trading volume [10] - Recommend a wait - and - see attitude for options [11] 4. Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the 1% tariff - based domestic and international cotton price spread, cotton basis for different months, and spreads between cotton yarn and cotton futures contracts [13][16][20][21]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The cotton sales progress remains fast, and the sales volume is at a high level in the same period over the years. The improvement of Sino-US relations and the expected expansion of Xinjiang textile mills in the new year support the fundamental upward trend. However, the previous bullish sentiment has been digested, and the cotton price has corrected. It is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. The cotton yarn market continues to be weak in the short term. [6][10] - For trading strategies, it is expected that the US cotton will likely fluctuate within a range in the short term, and Zhengzhou cotton is also expected to fluctuate within a range. For arbitrage and options, it is advisable to wait and see. [8][9][10] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Information - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts decreased by 150, 45, and 55 respectively; CY01 remained unchanged, CY05 decreased by 30, and CY09 remained unchanged. The trading volume of CF05 increased by 154,281, and that of CY05 decreased by 195. [2] - **Spot Market**: CCIndex3128B decreased by 17 yuan/ton, Cot A was 74.55 cents/pound, and the price of (FC Index):M: to - port decreased by 0.40. Among yarns, CY IndexC32S remained unchanged, and the price of Indian S - 6 remained unchanged. [2] - **Spreads**: In cotton inter - period spreads, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 105, the 5 - 9 spread increased by 10, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 95. In cotton yarn inter - period spreads, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 30, the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 30, and the 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged. [2] Market News and Views Cotton Market News - **ON - CALL Data**: As of January 16, the number of unpriced contracts of the ON - CALL 2603 contract by sellers decreased by 477 to 19,274, equivalent to a decrease of 10,000 tons compared to last week. The total number of unpriced contracts of sellers in the 2025/26 season increased by 2,449 to 40,722, equivalent to 920,000 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons compared to last week. The total number of unpriced contracts of ICE sellers increased to 52,321, equivalent to 1.19 million tons, an increase of 3,166 compared to last week, or 70,000 tons. [4] - **Brazilian Cotton Planting**: As of January 24, the cotton planting in Brazil in the 2025/26 season was 60.6% completed, a 24.3 - percentage - point increase from the previous period and 14.3 percentage points faster than the same period last year, but 2 percentage points slower than the average of the past three years. [4] - **US Cotton Inspection**: As of January 23, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton was 2.9374 million tons, accounting for 96.9% of the estimated US cotton production for the year, 7% slower than the same period last year. The inspection volume of US upland cotton was 2.8576 million tons, with an inspection progress of 97%, a 6% decrease year - on - year; the inspection volume of Pima cotton was 79,800 tons, with an inspection progress of 94.5%, 18% slower than the same period last year. [5] Trading Logic - The cotton sales progress is fast, and the improvement of Sino - US relations and the expected expansion of Xinjiang textile mills support the fundamental upward trend. However, the previous bullish sentiment has been digested, and the cotton price has corrected. It is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. [6] Trading Strategy - **Single - sided**: It is expected that the US cotton will likely fluctuate within a range in the short term, and Zhengzhou cotton is also expected to fluctuate within a range. [8] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see. [9] - **Options**: Wait and see. [10] Cotton Yarn Industry News - The domestic market of pure cotton yarn has been sluggish recently, with little improvement. The price of cotton yarn is weak, and the discount for transactions continues to expand. Traders and fabric mills make small - scale purchases, and some fabric mills plan to start their holidays at the end of this month. It is expected that the trading volume will continue to decrease, and the cotton yarn market will remain weak in the short term. [10] Options - **Volatility**: The 60 - day HV of cotton yesterday was 9.2812, with a slight increase in volatility compared to the previous day. The implied volatility of CF605 - C - 14600 was 13.3%, that of CF605 - C - 14200 was 11.3%, and that of CF605 - P - 13800 was 11.2%. [12] - **Options Strategy**: The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton yesterday was 0.8667, and the volume PCR of the main contract was 0.4688. The trading volumes of both call and put options decreased today. It is advisable to wait and see. [13][14] Relevant Attachments The report provides multiple figures, including the price difference between domestic and international cotton markets under 1% tariff, cotton basis in January, May, and September, the price difference between CY05 and CF05, CY01 and CF01, and the price differences of CF9 - 1 and CF5 - 9. [16][19][23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The cotton sales progress is still fast and at a high level in the same period of previous years. The downstream stocking willingness has increased, and textile mills have started to price one by one. Supported by market bullish factors, the cotton fundamentals remain strong. Although the cotton price has significantly corrected recently, it is expected to mainly fluctuate in a short - term range [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Information (First Part) - **Futures Market**: The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of various cotton (CF) and cotton yarn (CY) futures contracts are presented. For example, the CF01 contract closed at 15145 with a price increase of 5, and the CY05 contract closed at 20515 with a price decrease of 55 [2]. - **Spot Market**: Spot prices of various cotton and cotton yarn products are given, such as the CCIndex3128B cotton price at 15856 yuan/ton with a decrease of 75, and the CY IndexC32S cotton yarn price at 21300 yuan/ton with no change [2]. - **Price Spreads**: Different types of price spreads are provided, including cotton and cotton yarn inter - period spreads and cross - variety spreads. For example, the 1 - 5 month cotton inter - period spread is 620 with an increase of 25 [2]. 3.2 Market News and Views (Second Part) - **Cotton Market News** - As of January 19, 2026, the total cotton inventory in Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone was 35,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.33%. The inventory showed a small increase, with Brazilian and American cotton mainly for warehousing and no outbound shipments in the past half - month. The contract trading volume of the 2025/26 cotton season reached 621,520 tons as of January 6, equivalent to 16% of the estimated national output, and the pre - sale volume of the 2026/27 season was at least 73,000 tons [4]. - As of January 17, the cotton planting progress in Brazil in the 2025/26 season was 36.34%, a month - on - month increase of 4.4 percentage points, but slower than the same period last year and the average of the past three years, mainly due to stagnant planting in Bahia and slow planting in Mato Grosso [5]. - In December 2025, China's cotton imports were 180,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.3% and a year - on - year increase of 31.0%. In the 2025/26 season (from September 2025 to December 2025), the cumulative cotton imports were 490,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.1%. The cotton yarn imports in December 2025 were 170,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of about 15.10% and a year - on - year increase of about 11.9%. The cumulative cotton yarn imports in the 2025/26 season were about 590,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 18% [5]. - **Trading Logic**: The cotton sales progress is fast, and downstream stocking willingness has increased. Supported by bullish factors, the cotton fundamentals remain strong. After the recent significant correction, it is expected to mainly fluctuate in a short - term range [6]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: It is expected that the US cotton will likely fluctuate in a short - term range, and Zhengzhou cotton fundamentals remain strong, also expected to mainly fluctuate in a short - term range [7]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [7]. - Options: Wait and see [8]. - **Cotton Yarn Industry News** - The overall price of pure cotton yarn remained stable, with generally insufficient new orders and a weak market trading atmosphere. Some spinning mills reported a significant decrease in new orders, mainly fulfilling and digesting previous orders. Although foreign trade orders improved slightly, the boost to the overall market was limited [8]. - The sales of the whole - cotton grey cloth market remained the same as before, with prices mainly stable. In December 2025, the export volume of whole - cotton grey cloth was 48.85 million meters, a year - on - year increase of 9.3%, and the export value was 45.68 million US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 5.3%. The cumulative export volume from January to December 2025 was 639 million meters, a year - on - year increase of 23.17%, and the cumulative export value was 613 million US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 9.34%. The import volume in December 2025 was 37.87 million meters, a year - on - year increase of 26.95%, and the import value was 8.57 million US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 17.72%. The cumulative import volume from January to December 2025 was 350 million meters, a year - on - year increase of 15.82%, and the cumulative import value was 78.36 million US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 4.2% [9]. 3.3 Options (Third Part) - The closing prices, price changes, implied volatilities and other data of several cotton option contracts are presented. For example, the CF605C14600.CZC option contract closed at 334 on January 19, 2026, with a price decrease of 16.9% and an implied volatility of 13.3% [11]. - The 60 - day HV of cotton was 9.2812 yesterday, with a slight increase in volatility. The implied volatilities of different options were different [11]. - The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.8667 yesterday, and the PCR of trading volume was 0.4688. The trading volumes of both call and put options decreased today. The option strategy is to wait and see [12][14]. 3.4 Relevant Attachments (Fourth Part) - Multiple charts are presented, including the price spread between domestic and foreign cotton under 1% tariff, cotton basis for January, May, and September, the price spread between CY05 - CF05 and CY01 - CF01, and the price spreads of CF9 - 1 and CF5 - 9 [25][26]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The cotton market is continuing its adjustment trend. The domestic cotton spot trading has weakened, and the overall price of pure - cotton yarn has remained stable but with a slight downward shift in the actual transaction focus. The开机率 of inland spinning enterprises has declined slightly, and downstream weaving mills have limited new orders and high inventory of grey cloth, with low acceptance of high - priced yarns. The upward momentum of ICE cotton futures has weakened due to the strengthening of the US dollar. [1][2][3] 3. Key Points by Section 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - CF2605 closed at 14,760 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.92%, and its overnight price was 14745 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.10%. The trading volume was 710,353 lots, a decrease of 84,008 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 1,201,677 lots, an increase of 25,192 lots. - CY2603 closed at 20,765 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.61%, and its overnight price was 20820 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.26%. The trading volume was 10,121 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 16,032 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots. - ICE US cotton 3 closed at 64.93 cents/pound with a decline of 0.02%. [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: - The number of Zheng cotton warehouse receipts was 8,410, an increase of 642 compared to the previous day, and the valid forecast was 1,707, a decrease of 487. - The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 70, an increase of 10 compared to the previous day, and the valid forecast was 7, an increase of 43. [1] - **Spot Price Data**: - The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,590 yuan/ton, an increase of 140 yuan/ton compared to the previous day with a growth rate of 0.91%. - The price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,580 yuan/ton, an increase of 140 yuan/ton compared to the previous day with a growth rate of 0.91%. - The price in Shandong was 15,891 yuan/ton, a decrease of 43 yuan/ton compared to the previous day with a decline rate of - 0.27%. - The price in Hebei was 15,780 yuan/ton, a decrease of 47 yuan/ton compared to the previous day with a decline rate of - 0.30%. - The 3128B index was 15,783 yuan/ton, a decrease of 74 yuan/ton compared to the previous day with a decline rate of - 0.47%. - The international cotton index M: CNCottonM was 72.94 cents/pound, an increase of 0.66% compared to the previous day. - The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 21,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. - The arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 21,025 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton compared to the previous day with a growth rate of 0.02%. [1] - **Spread Data**: - The CF3 - 5 spread was 15 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. - The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 was 830 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The trading of domestic cotton spot has weakened. The low - basis - difference spot has decreased, and some cotton merchants have slightly raised the basis by 20 - 30 yuan/ton, with the overall basis center showing an upward trend. [2] - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The overall price of pure - cotton yarn has remained stable, but the actual transaction center has shifted slightly downward, and the overall market trading atmosphere is still weak. Recently, inland spinning enterprises have continuously reduced their operating rates slightly to avoid inventory accumulation risks, while spinning enterprises in Xinjiang still maintain a relatively high operating rate. Downstream weaving mills have limited new orders, high inventory of grey cloth, and low acceptance of high - priced yarns, mainly purchasing small orders based on rigid demand. [2] - **US Cotton**: ICE cotton futures fluctuated within a narrow range during the day yesterday, and the strengthening of the US dollar has weakened the upward momentum of ICE cotton futures. [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend, with the trend intensity ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish). [4][5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the cotton market remain strong due to supportive factors such as the expected reduction in cotton planting area in Xinjiang, fast sales progress, improved Sino - US relations, and expansion expectations of textile mills in Xinjiang. However, the cotton price has recently experienced a significant correction, and it is necessary to observe whether it can break through the 20 - day line. The short - term trend of US cotton is expected to be range - bound, and Zhengzhou cotton may have a short - term correction risk [4][5][6] - The overall price of domestic pure - cotton yarn remains stable, but the actual transaction center has moved down slightly, and the market trading atmosphere is still weak. The开机 rate of spinning mills in the inland region has declined, while that in Xinjiang remains high. The downstream fabric mills have limited new orders, high inventory, and low acceptance of high - priced yarn, and the market trading activity is further suppressed by the approaching Spring Festival [8] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - **Futures Market**: For cotton futures contracts (CF01, CF05, CF09), prices increased, with CF05 having the largest increase of 135. For yarn futures contracts (CY01, CY05, CY09), prices also showed an upward trend, except for CY01 which remained unchanged. The trading volume of most contracts decreased, and the open interest of some contracts changed [2] - **Spot Market**: The price of CCIndex3128B decreased by 147 yuan/ton, while the price of Cot A remained at 74.45 cents/pound. The price of polyester staple fiber increased by 70, and other spot prices remained mostly stable. In terms of spreads, there were changes in cotton and yarn inter - period spreads and cross - variety spreads [2] Market News and Views - **Cotton Market News**: According to USDA data, the global cotton production in 25/26 is 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons from last month; total demand increased by 70,000 tons to 25.89 million tons; and the ending inventory decreased by 320,000 tons to 16.22 million tons. As of January 10, the cotton planting progress in Brazil in 2025/26 was 31.9%, slower than the same period last year and the three - year average. As of January 9, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton and Pima cotton accounted for 89.2% of the estimated annual production, slower than the same period last year [4] - **Trading Logic**: The expected reduction in cotton planting area in Xinjiang has been gradually confirmed, and the sales progress is fast. With improved Sino - US relations and expansion expectations of textile mills in Xinjiang, the cotton fundamentals are strong. However, the price has recently corrected, and it is necessary to observe the 20 - day line [5] - **Trading Strategy**: For cotton, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach as the short - term trend of US cotton is expected to be range - bound, and Zhengzhou cotton may have a short - term correction risk. For arbitrage and options, a wait - and - see approach is also recommended [6][7] - **Cotton Yarn Industry News**: The overall price of domestic pure - cotton yarn remains stable, but the transaction is weak. The开机 rate of inland spinning mills has declined, while that in Xinjiang remains high. Downstream fabric mills have limited new orders, high inventory, and low acceptance of high - priced yarn. The cotton fabric market has weak trading, and most weavers expect to have an early holiday and are pessimistic about the market [8] Options - **Option Data**: Information such as the closing price, price change rate, implied volatility, and other parameters of cotton option contracts is provided. The 10 - day historical volatility of cotton increased slightly compared to the previous day. The trading volume of both call and put options decreased [10][11] - **Option Strategy**: A wait - and - see approach is recommended [12] Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the price spread between domestic and foreign cotton under 1% tariff, cotton basis in January, May, and September, the spread between yarn and cotton contracts, and the inter - period spread of cotton contracts [14][17][21]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the main Zhengzhou Cotton 2605 contract rose first and then fell, with a weekly increase of about 0.62%. The US cotton export signing volume continued to decline, while the domestic cotton market supply was relatively sufficient, and the inventory continued to increase. The downstream textile enterprises had limited orders, and some weaving mills might have an early holiday. However, the market generally expected a decline in the cotton planting area in the new year, which supported the cotton market to a certain extent. The short - term cotton price center is expected to continue to rise. Attention should be paid to the impact of macro and policy factors [8] Summary by Directory 1. Week - by - Week Highlights Summary Market Review - This week, the price of the main Zhengzhou Cotton 2605 contract rose first and then fell, with a weekly increase of about 0.62% [8] Market Outlook - As of the week ending January 1, 2026, the net increase in export sales of US upland cotton in the 2025/26 season was 98,000 bales, a decrease of 27% from the previous week and 49% from the average of the previous four weeks. The export shipment volume was 154,000 bales, an increase of 9% from the previous week and 18% from the average of the previous four weeks. The domestic cotton market supply is relatively sufficient, and the inventory continues to increase. The downstream textile enterprises have limited orders, and some weaving mills may have an early holiday. The short - term cotton price center is expected to continue to rise [8] Future Trading Tips - Pay attention to changes in foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory [9] 2. Futures and Spot Market US Cotton Market - This week, the price of the US cotton March contract rose, with a weekly increase of about 0.78%. As of December 30, 2025, the non - commercial long positions of US cotton were 81,162 lots, an increase of 722 lots from the previous week; the non - commercial short positions were 112,119 lots, an increase of 46 lots from the previous week; the net short positions were 30,957 lots, a decrease of 676 lots from the previous week [14] Foreign Cotton Spot Market - As of the week ending January 1, 2026, the net increase in export sales of US upland cotton in the 2025/26 season was 98,000 bales, a decrease of 27% from the previous week and 49% from the average of the previous four weeks. This week, the international cotton spot price was 75.05 cents per pound, an increase of 0.75 cents per pound from the previous week [20] Futures Market - This week, the price of the Zhengzhou Cotton 2605 contract rose first and then fell, with a weekly increase of about 0.62%. The cotton yarn futures 2603 contract rose 0.51%. As of this week, the net positions of the top twenty in cotton futures were - 177,522 lots, and the net positions of the top twenty in cotton yarn futures were - 1,948 lots. The number of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange cotton futures warehouse receipts was 7,388, and the number of cotton yarn futures warehouse receipts was 20 [23][30][34] Spot Market - As of January 9, 2026, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,930 yuan per ton. The spot price of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 21,300 yuan per ton, CY index: OEC10s (rotor - spun yarn) was 15,130 yuan per ton; CY index: OEC10s (combed yarn) was 24,300 yuan per ton [45][55] Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost - As of January 9, 2026, the sliding - scale duty price of imported cotton was 13,729 yuan per ton, a decrease of 201 yuan per ton from the previous week; the quota price of imported cotton was 12,599 yuan per ton, a decrease of 323 yuan per ton from the previous week. As of January 8, 2026, the import cotton yarn price index (FCY Index): port pick - up price: C21S was 20,155 yuan per ton; C32S was 21,326 yuan per ton; JC32S was 23,080 yuan per ton [59] Imported Cotton Price Cost - Profit - As of January 9, 2026, the estimated profit of imported cotton with sliding - scale duty was 2,263 yuan per ton, an increase of 637 yuan per ton from the previous week; the estimated profit of imported cotton with quota was 1,475 yuan per ton, an increase of 759 yuan per ton from the previous week [63] 3. Industry Situation Supply Side - As of the end of November 2025, the national commercial cotton inventory was 4.6836 million tons, an increase of 1.753 million tons from the previous month, an increase of 59.82%, and 10,000 tons higher than the same period last year, an increase of 0.21%. The in - stock industrial cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 939,600 tons, an increase of 51,400 tons from the end of the previous month. In November 2025, China's total cotton imports were about 120,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.4%; from January to November 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 890,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 64%. In November 2025, China imported 110,000 tons of cotton yarn, a month - on - month decrease of 30,000 tons [68][75] Mid - end Industry - As of the end of November 2025, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 26.33 days, an increase of 0.21 days from the previous month. The grey fabric inventory was 32.34 days, an increase of 0.37 days from the previous month [78] Terminal Consumption - In November 2025, China's textile and clothing export volume was 23.87 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2%, a month - on - month increase of 7.20%. Among them, textile exports were 12.28 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 1%; clothing exports were 11.59 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 10.9%. As of October 31, 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing were 864.54 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 13.90%, and the cumulative year - on - year increase was 2.9%, a month - on - month increase of 20.83% [84][88] 4. Options and Stock - related Markets Options Market - This week's implied volatility of at - the - money options for cotton is presented in the report, but specific data is not detailed [89] Stock Market - The report shows the price - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis is provided [92]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of cotton remain strong due to supportive market factors, with upward potential in the long - term, but there may be short - term回调 risks. The report expects US cotton to trade in a range and Zhengzhou cotton to trend upward with possible short - term corrections. For the cotton market, it is recommended to be cautious in trading strategies. The cotton yarn market has weak demand, with prices remaining stable and trading light [6][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Market Information - **Futures Market**: CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts all closed higher, with trading volume and open interest changes varying. CY01 remained flat, while CY05 and CY09 closed higher. Trading volume and open interest also changed accordingly [2]. - **Spot Market**: The price of CCIndex3128B was 15,615 yuan/ton, and the price of Cot A was 74.30 cents/pound. The price of polyester staple fiber increased by 70 yuan/ton, while the price of viscose staple fiber remained unchanged [2]. - **Spread**: Cotton and cotton yarn inter - period spreads and cross - variety spreads all had different degrees of change [2]. Second Part: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - As of December 30, the drought index in the main US cotton - producing areas continued to rise, and it is expected to worsen in Q1. As of December 19, ICE cotton futures' ON - CALL data showed a decrease in the number of un - priced contracts. As of December 27, the progress of cotton planting in Brazil in the 2025/26 season accelerated, but it was still behind the average of the past three years [4][5]. Trading Logic - The rumored reduction in cotton production in Xinjiang has been gradually confirmed. Cotton sales are progressing rapidly, and there are positive expectations for consumption. China's signing of US cotton contracts also provides upward momentum. Overall, the cotton fundamentals are strong, but there may be short - term回调 risks [6]. Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: US cotton is expected to trade in a range, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to trend upward with possible short - term corrections [8]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold off on trading [9]. - **Options**: Hold off on trading [10]. Cotton Yarn Industry News - Today, the price of pure cotton yarn remained stable, with light trading. After the New Year's Day holiday, most spinning mills have resumed production, but the downstream demand is weak, and the market's purchasing enthusiasm is low, with most buyers making small - order purchases as needed [10]. Third Part: Options - **Volatility**: The 10 - day HV of cotton increased slightly compared to the previous day. The implied volatilities of different option contracts were 6.7%, 11.4%, and 17.8% respectively [12]. - **Options Strategy**: Hold off on trading [14]. Fourth Part: Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the 1% tariff - based domestic and foreign cotton price spread, cotton basis for different months, spreads between cotton yarn and cotton futures contracts, and spreads between different cotton futures contracts [16][19][23][24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of cotton remain strong with upward potential in the long - term due to factors like the expected reduction in Xinjiang's cotton planting area, fast sales progress, improved Sino - US relations, and the expected expansion of Xinjiang textile mills' production capacity. However, there may be short - term回调 risks as cotton prices rose rapidly on Friday [6][7]. - The US cotton is expected to trade in a range, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be bullish with short - term回调 risks. For trading strategies, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options [8][9][10]. - The cotton yarn market is expected to回调 in the short - term due to weak downstream demand and sufficient supply. The trading in the pure cotton yarn market is light, and the full - cotton grey fabric market has weak sales [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Market Information - **Futures Market**: The prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts decreased by 95, 100, and 100 respectively; CY01, CY05, and CY09 contracts decreased by 350, 95, and 160 respectively. The trading volume and open interest of most contracts decreased [2]. - **Spot Market**: CCIndex3128B increased by 262 to 15541 yuan/ton, Cot A remained at 74.20 cents/pound, and the prices of some other varieties had different changes [2]. - **Spread**: In the cotton and cotton yarn inter - period spreads, the spreads and their changes varied; in the inter - variety spreads, the spreads and their changes also showed different trends [2]. Second Part: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - **US Retail and Inventory Data**: In October 2025, the US clothing and apparel retail sales reached $27.128 billion, a year - on - year increase of 5.72% and a month - on - month increase of 0.87%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative retail sales reached $264.202 billion, a year - on - year increase of 5.34%. In September 2025, the US clothing and apparel retailer inventory was $58.488 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.39% and a month - on - month increase of 0.48%. In September 2025, the inventory - to - sales ratio was 2.17, a year - on - year decrease of 0.15 and a month - on - month increase of 0.03 [4]. - **Zhangjiagang Cotton Inventory**: As of December 22, 2025, the total cotton inventory in Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone was 34,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.39%. The proportion of cotton from different countries changed. The inventory had a net increase, and it is expected that Brazilian cotton will continue to increase, while Australian cotton will mainly be out of storage [5]. - **National Cotton Inspection**: As of December 28, 1088 cotton processing enterprises nationwide had conducted notarized inspections, with a total inspection weight of 6.204 million tons. Among them, 1013 enterprises in Xinjiang had an inspection weight of 6.131 million tons, and 75 enterprises in the inland had an inspection weight of 73,000 tons [5]. Trading Logic - The expected reduction in Xinjiang's cotton planting area, fast sales progress, improved Sino - US relations, and the expected expansion of Xinjiang textile mills' production capacity support the fundamentals of cotton. China's recent signing of US cotton contracts also provides upward momentum for US cotton. The cotton price has an obvious upward trend, but there may be short - term回调 risks [6][7]. Trading Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: US cotton is expected to trade in a range, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be bullish with short - term回调 risks [8]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait - and - see [9]. - **Options**: Wait - and - see [10]. Cotton Yarn Industry News - The Zhengzhou cotton futures are at a high level but are expected to回调 in the short - term due to weak downstream demand and sufficient supply. The trading in the pure cotton yarn market is light, and only medium - and high - count yarns are performing well. The full - cotton grey fabric market has weak sales, and small and medium - sized weaving mills are expected to have holidays during the New Year's Day [10]. Third Part: Options - **Option Contract Data**: The report provides data on option contracts such as CF601C13400.CZC, CF601P13000.CZC, and CF601P12400.CZC, including closing prices, price changes, implied volatility, and other indicators [12]. - **Volatility**: The 10 - day HV of cotton increased slightly compared to the previous day. The implied volatilities of different option contracts were 6.7%, 11.4%, and 17.8% respectively [12]. - **Option Strategy**: Wait - and - see [14]. Fourth Part: Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the 1% tariff - based domestic and international cotton price spread, cotton 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month basis, CY05 - CF05 and CY01 - CF01 spreads, and CF9 - 1 and CF5 - 9 spreads [16][19][23][24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The cotton futures price is oscillating strongly, and attention should be paid to the pre - holiday stocking of downstream enterprises [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: CF2605 closed at 14,070 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.39% and a night - session closing price of 14,145 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.53%; CY2603 closed at 20,110 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.30% and a night - session closing price of 20,210 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.50%; ICE US cotton 3 was at 63.61 cents/pound with a decrease of 0.06% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: CF2605 had a trading volume of 452,618 lots, an increase of 48,089 lots compared to the previous day, and an open interest of 1,116,046 lots, a decrease of 421 lots; CY2603 had a trading volume of 9,577 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and an open interest of 23,294 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: Zhengzhou cotton had 4,075 warehouse receipts, an increase of 205, and 3,831 valid forecasts, a decrease of 21;棉纱 had 9 warehouse receipts, unchanged, and 0 valid forecasts, an increase of 9 [1] - **Spot Prices**: The price of Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,901 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.37%; the price of Nanjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,915 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.37%; the price in Shandong was 15,195 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.07%; the price in Hebei was 15,132 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.01%; the 3128B index was 15,154 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.06%; the international cotton index M was 72.05 cents/pound, an increase of 0.36%; the price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32S was 20,990 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.29%; the arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32S was 21,133 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.02% [1] - **Price Spreads**: The CF1 - 5 spread was 30 yuan/ton more than the previous day; the spread between Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 was unchanged at 830 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Cotton spot trading was average, with fixed - price trading relatively better. Spot fixed prices increased by 50 - 100 yuan/ton with the rise of Zhengzhou cotton. The 2025/26 Beijiang machine - picked 41 - 31 grade double - 29 with less than 3% impurity had many fixed - price quotes above 15,000 yuan/ton [2] - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The price of pure - cotton yarn was stable, and the overall market sales were weak. Affected by the slowdown in the downstream grey - cloth market and insufficient new orders, the yarn inventory of spinning enterprises increased slightly, and the phenomenon of bargaining sales increased. Recently, the sales of medium - and low - count yarns (including rotor - spun yarn) were weak, while only high - count combed yarns sold well, and some traders reported a shortage of supplies [2] - **US Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures rose first and then fell. After the release of US cotton export sales data, it declined. Due to the approaching holiday, the market trading was light, and it was still in a low - level oscillation [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, with a value range of [-2, 2] for integer values, and 0 represents a neutral trend [5]