Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The cotton market is experiencing a narrow - range oscillation. The domestic cotton spot trading is increasingly sluggish with stable basis, the cotton yarn market has minor changes, and the cotton fabric market has limited improvement in production and sales with high inventory. The ICE cotton futures declined due to the rising dollar and weak new - crop exports [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Contents a. Cotton Fundamental Data - **Futures**: For CF2601, the yesterday's closing price was 13,835 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.11%, and the night - session closing price was 13,825 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.07%. The trading volume was 196,806 lots, a decrease of 52,459 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 748,215 lots, a decrease of 2,804 lots. For CY2511, the yesterday's closing price was 19,705 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.03%, and the night - session closing price was 19,715 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.05%. The trading volume was 6,245 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 15,633 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots. The ICE cotton futures (December contract) closed at 66.36 cents/pound, a decline of 0.84% [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 8,329, a decrease of 135 compared to the previous day, with 348 valid forecasts (no change). The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 88 (no change), and the valid forecasts increased by 88 [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The price of North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,002 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous day; South Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,687 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The prices in Shandong and Hebei increased by 20 yuan/ton and 18 yuan/ton respectively. The 3128B index was 15,191 yuan/ton, an increase of 13 yuan/ton. The international cotton index M was 74.39 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.36%. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 20,620 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton, and the arrival price was 22,128 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spreads**: The CF9 - 1 spread was - 165 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton compared to the previous day; the spread between North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [1]. b. Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: According to TTEB, the domestic cotton spot trading is increasingly sluggish, and the spot basis is generally stable. Different regions have different sales basis levels [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The pure - cotton yarn market has minor changes. The knitting market in Guangdong has slightly improved, while the weaving market remains dull. The overall market feedback is average, and the cotton yarn prices are mainly stable. The cotton fabric market is cautious, with some improvement in orders for some fabric mills, but the overall order situation has not improved significantly. It is expected that the fabric mills' sales will gradually accelerate in August, and inventory will be digested, but currently, the increase in orders is limited, and the production and sales improvement is limited with high inventory [2]. - **US Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures declined again yesterday due to the rising dollar and weak new - crop exports [3]. c. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The USDA's July cotton supply and demand report is bearish, and good weather and improved crop ratings are suppressing the upside potential of US cotton in the short term. There are risks from macro factors such as US tariffs on imports from Japan, South Korea and potential new 10% tariffs on BRICS countries. In China, the textile industry is in a consumption off - season, with poor new orders, a slow decline in overall operating rates, and more cautious raw material procurement. Cotton is in a de - stocking state, and high - temperature weather in some areas of Xinjiang increases the risk of heat damage to cotton, supporting a slightly stronger price trend. However, the consumption off - season in the downstream is dragging on the price rhythm, so the overall trend is oscillating slightly stronger. Weather and macro factors should be continuously monitored [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton's main contract closing price is 13,850 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; cotton yarn's main contract closing price is 20,050 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures is - 14,759 lots, up 2,947 lots; for cotton yarn futures, it is 109 lots, up 4 lots. The main contract positions of cotton are 546,688 lots, down 11,044 lots; for cotton yarn, it is 21,168 lots, down 1,042 lots. The cotton warehouse receipt quantity is 9,716 sheets, down 91 sheets; for cotton yarn, it is 98 sheets, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 15,302 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the China Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count) is 20,520 yuan/ton, unchanged. The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,651 yuan/ton; the landed price of the Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count) is 22,109 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan. The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty) is 14,384 yuan/ton; the landed price of the Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count) is 23,902 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 616 tons, up 54 tons [2] Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,218 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan. The industrial inventory of cotton nationwide is 85 tons, up 2.4 tons. The monthly import volume of cotton is 4 tons, down 2 tons; for cotton yarn, it is 100,000 tons, down 20,000 tons. The profit from imported cotton is 971 yuan/ton, up 58 yuan. The commercial inventory of cotton nationwide is 345.87 tons, down 69.39 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days are 23.86 days, up 1.52 days; the坯布 inventory days are 35.46 days, up 2.57 days. The monthly cloth output is 2.67 billion meters, down 0.05 billion meters; the monthly yarn output is 195.1 tons, down 3.6 tons. The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 1,357,773.7 million US dollars, up 197,117.9 million US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 1,263,177.3 million US dollars, up 5,210.9 million US dollars [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options is 15.96%, up 7.71%; for put options, it is 16.02%, up 7.78%. The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 5.01%, up 0.04%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 8.35%, down 0.23% [2] Industry News - As of the week of July 13, 2025, the US cotton boll - setting rate is 23%, up from 14% the previous week, compared with 26% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 22%. The budding rate is 61%, up from 48% the previous week, compared with 62% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 62%. The good - to - excellent rate is 54%, up from 52% the previous week, compared with 45% in the same period last year [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The cotton futures price lacks effective drivers and remains in a volatile trend [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2509 closed at 13,745 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.04%, and the night - session price was 13,775 yuan/ton with a 0.22% increase; CY2509 closed at 20,045 yuan/ton with a 0.28% increase, and the night - session price was 20,050 yuan/ton; ICE US cotton 12 closed at 67.96 cents/pound with a - 0.12% decrease. The trading volume of CF2509 was 256,050 lots, a decrease of 200,500 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 854,338 lots, a decrease of 9,073 lots. The trading volume of CY2509 was 7,335 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 22,023 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 10,211, a decrease of 62 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 301 with no change; the number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 2, with no change, and the effective forecast was 6, a decrease of 1 [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,070 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan or 0.07% from the previous day; the price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,770 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan or 0.07% from the previous day; the price in Shandong was 15,204 yuan/ton, an increase of 51 yuan or 0.34% from the previous day; the price in Hebei was 15,155 yuan/ton, an increase of 46 yuan or 0.30% from the previous day; the 3128B index was 15,212 yuan/ton, an increase of 58 yuan or 0.38% from the previous day; the international cotton index M was 75.58 cents/pound, a decrease of 1.25 cents or - 1.63% from the previous day; the price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 20,420 yuan/ton with no change; the arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 21,912 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan or 0.01% from the previous day [1] - **Spread Data**: The CF9 - 1 spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous day; the spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 increased by 10 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The spot trading of cotton has changed little, mostly for the rigid - demand procurement of textile enterprises, and the overall basis has remained stable. The mainstream sales basis of 2024/25 Northern Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29 - 30B with impurity within 3.5 is mostly at CF09 + 1300 - 1600, and the overall offers are few, for self - pick - up in Xinjiang; the basis of 2024/25 Hami machine - picked 3129/29B with impurity within 3 is mostly at CF09 + 1000 and above, for self - pick - up in the inland; the 2024/25 Southern Xinjiang Kashgar machine - picked 3129/29B with impurity within 3 was traded at CF09 + 950 - 1050, for self - pick - up in Xinjiang [2] - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The market of pure - cotton yarn has shown little change recently, and the yarn prices have remained stable. The cash - flow losses of inland textile enterprises exceed 500 yuan/ton, the downstream demand is sluggish, and textile enterprises continue to accumulate inventory. The trading in the all - cotton grey fabric market remains cold. Currently, manufacturers are mostly looking forward to the start of autumn orders in July. The domestic sales are light, with few inquiries. Some weaving factories reported that they have been on business trips to visit customers recently but have received few orders. Individual weaving factories reported that they have no orders and face great operating pressure in July, considering further production cuts [2] - **US Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures fell slightly yesterday. The higher - than - expected US cotton planting area and the increase in the excellent - good rate of US cotton put pressure on ICE cotton, but external factors such as the weakening of the US dollar and the rise in crude oil prices provided support for ICE cotton [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - Cotton shows a volatile trend with a lack of driving forces. The trend strength of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral view [1][4] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - CF2509 closed at 13,410 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.15% and a night - session closing price of 13,400 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.07%. Its trading volume was 173,996 lots, an increase of 8,451 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 760,814 lots, a decrease of 976 lots [1] - CY2507 closed at 19,650 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.33% and a night - session closing price of 19,620 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.15%. Its trading volume was 5,635 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 14,692 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1] - ICE Cotton 07 closed at 66.06 cents/pound with a daily increase of 0.59% [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: - Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts were 11,359 sheets, a decrease of 50 sheets from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 327 sheets, a decrease of 21 sheets [1] - Cotton yarn warehouse receipts were 15 sheets, a decrease of 7 sheets from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 0 sheets, an increase of 22 sheets [1] - **Spot Price Data**: - The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,468 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - The price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,263 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - The price in Shandong was 14,618 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - The price in Hebei was 14,514 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - The 3128B index was 14,608 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - The international cotton index M was 74.88 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.54% from the previous day [1] - The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 20,520 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] - The arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 21,771 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - **Spread Data**: - The CF9 - 1 spread was - 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,060 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Cotton spot trading was sluggish, and the mainstream basis remained firm. The basis of 2024/25 Southern Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29 - 30B with impurity within 3.5 was CF09 + 800, and that of 2024/25 Northern Xinjiang Corps machine - picked 4129/29 - 31B with impurity within 3 was CF09+1300 - 1400. The freight for cotton shipped out of Xinjiang by truck was basically stable [2] - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The atmosphere in the pure - cotton yarn market was average, and trading could be maintained. Yarn prices were mainly stable, but the industry was skeptical about the sustainability of orders and overall confidence was not strong. The all - cotton grey fabric market was weak, with obvious insufficient orders and average shipments. Weaving mills' quotations were stable, and actual orders could be negotiated according to quantity [2] - **US Cotton**: Last Friday, ICE cotton futures rose slightly due to the weakening of the US dollar [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The cotton market still lacks upward drivers [1] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2509 closed at 12,750 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.70%, and its trading volume was 243,543 lots, a decrease of 12,789 lots from the previous day, while the position increased by 343 lots to 758,897 lots; CY2507 closed at 18,790 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.16%, its trading volume was 5,366 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the position increased by 1,045 lots to 19,713 lots; ICE Cotton 07 closed at 68.53 cents/pound with a daily increase of 0.25% [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 11,040, an increase of 202 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 1,315, a decrease of 243; the number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 10, unchanged from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 1, an increase of 9 [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 13,848 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan or 0.65% from the previous day; the price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 13,663 yuan/ton, a decrease of 77 yuan or 0.56% from the previous day; the price in Shandong was 14,246 yuan/ton, a decrease of 64 yuan or 0.45% from the previous day; the price in Hebei was 14,260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan or 0.49% from the previous day; the 3128B index was 14,183 yuan/ton, a decrease of 49 yuan or 0.34% from the previous day; the international cotton index M was 74.90 cents/pound, a decrease of 1 cent or 1.41% from the previous day; the price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 20,410 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan or 0.39% from the previous day; the arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 22,220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 106 yuan or 0.47% from the previous day [1] - **Spread Data**: The CF9 - 1 spread was - 210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan from the previous day; the spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot Situation**: The basis of domestic cotton spot was temporarily stable. The sales basis of 2024/25 Southern Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29 - 30B with impurity within 3.5 was mostly around CF09 + 750, and some were quoted higher than CF09 + 850 for self - pick - up in Xinjiang; the sales basis of 2024/25 Northern Xinjiang machine - picked 4129/29 - 30B with impurity within 3.5 was mostly above CF09 + 1000, and a small amount of low - price ones were between CF09 + 950 - 1000 for self - pick - up in Xinjiang; the transaction basis of 2024/25 Northern Xinjiang Corps machine - picked 4129/29B with impurity within 3.5 was partly between CF09 + 1250 - 1300 for self - pick - up in Xinjiang [2] - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises Situation**: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market was poor, and textile enterprises mainly negotiated sales. The price of cotton yarn was stable with a weak trend, market confidence was insufficient, and the operating rate of textile enterprises continued to decline [2] - **US Cotton Situation**: During the long holiday, ICE cotton rose by more than 3%, mainly due to a sharp increase on May 2nd, benefiting from the optimistic expectation of the trade agreement; the fundamental driving force in the international cotton market was still weak, the weather in the US cotton - growing areas improved, and the weekly export sales data of US cotton was average [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton was 0, indicating a neutral trend [3][4]