瑞达期货研究院 「2026.01.09」 棉花（纱）市场周报 研究员：王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证Z0021556 关 注 微信客 服 号 添加客服 业务咨询 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权及股市关联市场 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：本周郑棉主力2605合约价格冲高回落，周度涨幅约0.62%。 行情展望：据美国农业部(USDA)报告显示，1月1日止当周，2025/26年度美国陆地 棉出口销售净增9.8万包，较前周减少27%，较前四周均值减少49%。2025/26年度 美国陆地棉出口装运量15.4万包，较前周增加9%，较前4周平均水平增加18%。当 周美国棉花出口签约量继续下降。国内市场：当前全国棉花公检加速，市场供应相 对充足。另外随着配额发放，港口提货增加，巴西棉开始集中到货，库存继续增加， 据Mysteel调研显示，截止至1月8日当周，进口棉主要港口库存周环比增加0.55%， 总库存39.95万吨。下游纺企订单量有限，低于往年水平，预计部分织布厂提前放假 可能。不过由于市场普遍预期新年度植棉面积下滑，在一定程度支撑棉市，当前市 场静待2026 ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2026 年 01 月 05 日 研究员：王玺圳、刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F03118729、F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0022817、Z0014425 联系方式： :wangxizhen_qh@chin astock.com.cn 棉花、棉纱日报 第一部分 市场信息 | 期货盘面 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 增减幅 | 空盘量 | 增减量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CF01合约 | 14740 | 85 | 10,291 | -15755 | 82,645 | -7734 | | CF05合约 | 14655 | 70 | 492,738 | 177468 | 889,861 | 29136 | | CF09合约 | 14845 | 85 | 45,268 | 29207 | 72,030 | 15542 | | CY01合约 | 20475 | 0 | 0 | -337 | 378 | 0 | | CY05合约 | 20650 | 55 | 83 | 69 | 164 | 3 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of cotton remain strong with upward potential in the long - term due to factors like the expected reduction in Xinjiang's cotton planting area, fast sales progress, improved Sino - US relations, and the expected expansion of Xinjiang textile mills' production capacity. However, there may be short - term回调 risks as cotton prices rose rapidly on Friday [6][7]. - The US cotton is expected to trade in a range, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be bullish with short - term回调 risks. For trading strategies, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options [8][9][10]. - The cotton yarn market is expected to回调 in the short - term due to weak downstream demand and sufficient supply. The trading in the pure cotton yarn market is light, and the full - cotton grey fabric market has weak sales [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Market Information - **Futures Market**: The prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts decreased by 95, 100, and 100 respectively; CY01, CY05, and CY09 contracts decreased by 350, 95, and 160 respectively. The trading volume and open interest of most contracts decreased [2]. - **Spot Market**: CCIndex3128B increased by 262 to 15541 yuan/ton, Cot A remained at 74.20 cents/pound, and the prices of some other varieties had different changes [2]. - **Spread**: In the cotton and cotton yarn inter - period spreads, the spreads and their changes varied; in the inter - variety spreads, the spreads and their changes also showed different trends [2]. Second Part: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - **US Retail and Inventory Data**: In October 2025, the US clothing and apparel retail sales reached $27.128 billion, a year - on - year increase of 5.72% and a month - on - month increase of 0.87%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative retail sales reached $264.202 billion, a year - on - year increase of 5.34%. In September 2025, the US clothing and apparel retailer inventory was $58.488 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.39% and a month - on - month increase of 0.48%. In September 2025, the inventory - to - sales ratio was 2.17, a year - on - year decrease of 0.15 and a month - on - month increase of 0.03 [4]. - **Zhangjiagang Cotton Inventory**: As of December 22, 2025, the total cotton inventory in Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone was 34,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.39%. The proportion of cotton from different countries changed. The inventory had a net increase, and it is expected that Brazilian cotton will continue to increase, while Australian cotton will mainly be out of storage [5]. - **National Cotton Inspection**: As of December 28, 1088 cotton processing enterprises nationwide had conducted notarized inspections, with a total inspection weight of 6.204 million tons. Among them, 1013 enterprises in Xinjiang had an inspection weight of 6.131 million tons, and 75 enterprises in the inland had an inspection weight of 73,000 tons [5]. Trading Logic - The expected reduction in Xinjiang's cotton planting area, fast sales progress, improved Sino - US relations, and the expected expansion of Xinjiang textile mills' production capacity support the fundamentals of cotton. China's recent signing of US cotton contracts also provides upward momentum for US cotton. The cotton price has an obvious upward trend, but there may be short - term回调 risks [6][7]. Trading Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: US cotton is expected to trade in a range, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be bullish with short - term回调 risks [8]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait - and - see [9]. - **Options**: Wait - and - see [10]. Cotton Yarn Industry News - The Zhengzhou cotton futures are at a high level but are expected to回调 in the short - term due to weak downstream demand and sufficient supply. The trading in the pure cotton yarn market is light, and only medium - and high - count yarns are performing well. The full - cotton grey fabric market has weak sales, and small and medium - sized weaving mills are expected to have holidays during the New Year's Day [10]. Third Part: Options - **Option Contract Data**: The report provides data on option contracts such as CF601C13400.CZC, CF601P13000.CZC, and CF601P12400.CZC, including closing prices, price changes, implied volatility, and other indicators [12]. - **Volatility**: The 10 - day HV of cotton increased slightly compared to the previous day. The implied volatilities of different option contracts were 6.7%, 11.4%, and 17.8% respectively [12]. - **Option Strategy**: Wait - and - see [14]. Fourth Part: Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the 1% tariff - based domestic and international cotton price spread, cotton 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month basis, CY05 - CF05 and CY01 - CF01 spreads, and CF9 - 1 and CF5 - 9 spreads [16][19][23][24].

2025 年 12 月 23 日 商 品 研 究 棉花：期价震荡偏强，关注下游节前备货 20251223 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 棉花基本面数据 | | 名 称 | 单 位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | CF2605 | 元/吨 | 14,070 | 0.39% | 14145 | 0.53% | | | CY2603 | 元/吨 | 20,110 | 0.30% | 20210 | 0.50% | | | ICE美棉3 | 美分/磅 | 63.61 | -0.06% | | - | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | CF2605 | 手 | 452,618 | 48,089 | 1,116,046 | -421 | | | CY2603 | 手 | 9,577 | -1,999 | 23,294 | 1,045 | | | | | 昨日仓单量 | 较前日变 ...

长江期货棉纺产业周报 2025-12-19 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1号 震荡偏强 【长期研究|棉纺团队】 研究员：黄尚海 执业编号:F0270997 投资咨询编号:Z0002826 01 周度总结 Ø 棉花：近期棉花期货现货价格均出现震荡上行走势。一方面基本面供需格局供需双增，矛盾不突出；一方面预期新年 度新疆种植政策会出现较大变化，缩减新疆棉产量。目前新疆棉现货市场比较强势，一口价销售较好，基差坚挺。纱 线端采购按部就班。预期近期棉花价格未知震荡偏强。 Ø 棉纱：目前内地不少纺织企业已面临现金流亏损的压力。尽管新疆地区的纺织企业凭借靠近原料产地、享有一定政策 支持等成本优势，目前仍能保持较高的开工负荷，但行业的整体压力已然不容小觑。后续需继续关注郑棉走势和下游 补库情况，近期部分纺企反馈有织厂开始补库，若能形成行情，有望提振市场信心，。 Ø 风险提示：商品市场共振、下游需求萎靡、天气因素影响； 02 行情回顾 | | 本間 | 周围张跌 | 周唐张跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 棍花期后看到 | 14,015.00 | [180.0 ...

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic market has sufficient cotton supply as the current inspection volume of new cotton has exceeded 4.6 million tons and the port cotton inventory remains high. The import quota for this year is almost used up, with limited RMB shipments, resulting in more imports than exports at cotton ports. As of December 4, the weekly inventory at major import cotton ports increased by 1.92% to 387,600 tons, reaching a five - month high. The downstream demand is relatively differentiated, with the demand for high - count yarn improving, which boosts the cotton market to some extent. Overall, although the demand shows marginal improvement, the supply is still abundant, limiting the rebound of cotton prices [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 13,780, up 40; cotton yarn main contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 19,965, up 20 - Cotton futures top 20 net positions (lots): - 136,077, down 5702; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions (lots): - 250, up 172 - Main contract positions: cotton (daily, lots): 474,318, down 4249; cotton yarn (daily, lots): 18,058, up 688 - Warehouse receipt quantity: cotton (daily, sheets): 2970, up 221; cotton yarn (daily, sheets): 12, unchanged - China Cotton Price Index: CCIndex: 3128B (daily, yuan/ton): 15,004, up 5; China Yarn Price Index: Pure Cotton Carded Yarn 32S (daily, yuan/ton): 20,800, unchanged - China Imported Cotton Price Index: FCIndexM: 1% tariff (daily, yuan/ton): 12,846, up 34; arrival price of Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index: Pure Cotton Carded Yarn 32S (daily, yuan/ton): 21,036, down 23 - China Imported Cotton Price Index: FCIndexM: sliding - scale tariff (daily, yuan/ton): 13,873; arrival price of Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index: Pure Cotton Combed Yarn 32S (daily, yuan/ton): 22,209, down 25 [2] Spot Market - China Imported Cotton Price Index: FCIndexM: 1% tariff (daily, yuan/ton): 12,846, up 34; arrival price of Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index: Pure Cotton Carded Yarn 32S (daily, yuan/ton): 21,036, down 23 - China Imported Cotton Price Index: FCIndexM: sliding - scale tariff (daily, yuan/ton): 13,873; arrival price of Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index: Pure Cotton Combed Yarn 32S (daily, yuan/ton): 22,209, down 25 [2] Upstream Situation - National cotton sown area (annual, thousand hectares): 2838.3, up 48.3; national cotton output (annual, million tons): 6.16, up 0.54 [2] Industry Situation - Cotton - yarn price difference (CY C32S - CC3128B, yuan/ton): 5796, down 5 - Industrial inventory of cotton: national (monthly, million tons): 85, up 6.5 - Cotton import volume: monthly value (monthly, million tons): 9, down 1; cotton yarn import volume: monthly value (monthly, tons): 140,000, up 10,000 - Imported cotton profit (daily, yuan/ton): 1131, down 7 - Commercial inventory of cotton: national (monthly, million tons): 293.06, up 190.89 [2] Downstream Situation - Inventory days of yarn (monthly, days): 26.12, up 1.27; inventory days of grey fabric (monthly, days): 31.97, up 0.85 - Cloth output: monthly value (monthly, billion meters): 26.2, down 1.8; yarn output: monthly value (monthly, million tons): 2.001, down 0.073 - Export value of clothing and clothing accessories: monthly value (monthly, million US dollars): 11,003,480.43, down 1,449,766.57; export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products: monthly value (monthly, million US dollars): 11,258,418.92, down 708,097.08 [2] Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call option for cotton (%): 11.58, up 4.1; implied volatility of at - the - money put option for cotton (%): 11.58, up 4.1 - 20 - day historical volatility of cotton (%): 5.75, down 0.03; 60 - day historical volatility of cotton (%): 6.43, down 0.21 [2] Industry News - As of November 4, 2025, according to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the non - commercial long positions of US cotton were 78,625 lots, an increase of 3267 lots from the previous week; the non - commercial short positions were 123,469 lots, a decrease of 6936 lots from the previous week; the net short positions were 44,844 lots, a decrease of 10,203 lots from the previous week - As of the end of November 2025, according to statistics from the Cotton Information Network, the national cotton commercial inventory was 4.6836 million tons, an increase of 1.753 million tons from the previous month, a growth rate of 59.82%, and 10,000 tons higher than the same period last year, a growth rate of 0.21%. Among them, as of the end of November, the cotton inventory in Xinjiang was 3.7905 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.4497 million tons, and 76,400 tons lower than the same period last year - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) cotton futures closed higher on Tuesday. Traders digested the monthly supply - demand report released by the US Department of Agriculture, which showed that the US cotton production and ending inventory forecasts were raised. The ICE March cotton futures contract rose 0.18 cents, or 0.28%, to settle at 63.86 cents per pound [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The supply side has a large number of new cotton flowers on the market, with a significant increase in production in the new year, but the increase may be less than expected. The demand side has average recent orders, but the previous negative factors have basically been reflected in the market. The current cotton sales progress is at a high level in the same period over the years. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton will mostly fluctuate strongly. The future trend of US cotton is likely to be range - bound, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a fluctuating and strengthening trend. For trading strategies, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options [6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - **Futures Market**: CF01, CF05, CF09, CY01, CY05, and CY09 contracts all showed price declines. The trading volume of most contracts increased, and the open interest of some contracts changed. For example, the CF01 contract closed at 13780, down 20, with a trading volume of 229,172 (an increase of 52245), and an open interest of 522,168 (a decrease of 21990) [2]. - **Spot Market**: The CCIndex3128B price was 15005 yuan/ton, up 69; the Cot A price was 74.95 cents/pound; the FC Index:M: arrival price was 74.07, down 0.09. The prices of some other spot products such as polyester staple fiber, viscose staple fiber, etc. also had corresponding changes [2]. - **Spread**: In the cotton and yarn markets, there were changes in inter - period spreads and cross - variety spreads. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of cotton was 30, down 15; the CY01 - CF01 spread was 6145, down 60 [2]. Market News and Views - **Cotton Market News**: On December 3, 2025, the out - of - Xinjiang cotton road transport price index was 0.1940 yuan/ton·km, unchanged from the previous period. In October 2025, Japan's clothing imports remained at a high level, with the import value reaching 364.853 billion yen (equivalent to 2.418 billion US dollars), a year - on - year increase of 4.53% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.99%. On December 2, 2025, the machine - picked cotton purchase index in Xinjiang was 5.94 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous day; the hand - picked cotton purchase index was 6.68 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [5]. - **Trading Logic**: In November, with the large - scale listing of new cotton, there may be some selling and hedging pressure in the market. Although this year's cotton production is a bumper harvest, the expected increase may be less than previously thought. After the peak season, the market has entered a relatively off - season. Overall, the supply is abundant but the increase may be less than expected, and the demand is average, but previous negative factors have been reflected in the market, so Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate strongly [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected that the future trend of US cotton will mostly be range - bound, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a fluctuating and strengthening trend. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach [7]. - **Cotton Yarn Industry News**: Last night, Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated strongly, while cotton yarn futures fluctuated weakly, with an overall bearish profit outlook. The trading in the pure cotton yarn market was average, with few new orders and mostly small orders. High - count yarns still had good sales. The all - cotton clothing grey fabric market was weak, and fabric mills were mainly focused on inventory reduction. The anti - down fabric in Nantong Home Textile Market in Jiangsu still had continuous sales, but the profit margin was lower than expected [8]. Options - **Option Contract Data**: On November 24, 2025, for option contracts such as CF601C13400.CZC, CF601P13000.CZC, and CF601P12400.CZC, information such as the underlying contract price, closing price, price change rate, implied volatility, etc. was provided. For example, the CF601C13400.CZC contract had a closing price of 183.00, a price increase rate of 71.0%, and an implied volatility of 6.7% [10]. - **Volatility and Strategy**: The 10 - day HV of cotton yesterday was 6.4492, with a slight increase in volatility. The implied volatilities of different option contracts were different. The trading volume of both call and put options decreased today. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for options [10][11][12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of the main Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract rose with a weekly increase of about 0.83%, while the price of the US cotton December contract fell with a weekly decline of about 1.47% [5][11] - In the US cotton market, as of September 23, 2025, non - commercial long positions decreased by 751 hands, non - commercial short positions increased by 2020 hands, and net short positions increased by 2771 hands compared to the previous week [11] - In the domestic market, the commercial cotton inventory has dropped to a low level in the same period. The purchase price of seed cotton in Xinjiang has risen slightly, and the new cotton is gradually coming onto the market with a significant bumper harvest in the new year, increasing supply - side pressure. The orders of textile mills have not improved significantly, and the operating rate is still lower than the same period last year, and the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" has not appeared [5] - It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term for the Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract. Future trading should focus on changes in foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of the main Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract rose this week with a weekly increase of about 0.83% [5] - **Market Outlook**: In the US, less rainfall in cotton - growing areas is conducive to harvesting, and new cotton supply will put pressure on prices. In China, the supply - side pressure is increasing due to new cotton listing and a bumper harvest, while the demand side has not improved significantly [5] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Wait and see in the short - term for the Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract. Pay attention to post - holiday restocking and the listing rhythm [6] - **Future Trading Tips**: Focus on changes in foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory [6] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **US Cotton Market**: The price of the US cotton December contract fell this week with a weekly decline of about 1.47%. As of September 23, 2025, non - commercial long positions were 69367 hands (down 751 hands from the previous week), non - commercial short positions were 114787 hands (up 2020 hands), and net short positions were 45420 hands (up 2771 hands) [11] - **Foreign Cotton Spot Market**: From September 18th, the net increase in US cotton export sales was 86100 bales. The international cotton spot price was 76.05 cents per pound, down 1.1 cents per pound from last week [15] - **Futures Market**: The price of the Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract rose with a weekly increase of about 0.83%, and the price of the cotton yarn futures 2601 contract rose with a weekly increase of about 0.21%. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 51037 hands, and that in cotton yarn futures was - 206 hands. The number of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange cotton futures warehouse receipts was 2942, and that of cotton yarn futures was 0 [20][27][33] - **Spot Market**: As of October 10, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14757 yuan per ton, and the Chinese cotton yarn spot C32S index price was 20460 yuan per ton [39][51] - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost**: As of October 9, the import cotton price with sliding - scale duty was 13965 yuan per ton (down 103 yuan per ton from last week), and the import cotton quota price was 12978 yuan per ton (down 168 yuan per ton). The import cotton yarn price index for different specifications is also provided [55] - **Imported Cotton Price Cost - Profit**: As of October 9, the estimated profit of imported cotton with sliding - scale duty was 774 yuan per ton (down 20 yuan per ton from last week), and that of imported cotton with quota was 1761 yuan per ton (up 45 yuan per ton) [58] 3.3 Industry Situation - **Supply - Side**: As of the end of August, the national commercial cotton inventory was 1481700 tons (down 708100 tons from last month, a decrease of 32.34%), and the cotton industrial inventory of cotton textile enterprises was 892000 tons (down 6000 tons month - on - month). In August 2025, China's cotton import volume was about 70000 tons (up 20000 tons month - on - month, down 80000 tons or 51.6% year - on - year), and the imported cotton yarn volume was 130000 tons (up 20000 tons month - on - month, up 20000 tons year - on - year) [61][67] - **Mid - end Industry (Demand - Side)**: As of the end of August, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 26.6 days (down 1.1 days month - on - month), and the grey cloth inventory was 33.9 days (down 2.3 days month - on - month) [70] - **Terminal Consumption (Demand - Side)**: In August 2025, China's textile and clothing export volume was 26.54 billion US dollars (down 5% year - on - year, down 0.8% month - on - month). Among them, textile exports were 12.39 billion US dollars (up 1.5% year - on - year, up 6.8% month - on - month), and clothing exports were 14.15 billion US dollars (down 10.1% year - on - year, down 6.7% month - on - month). As of August 31, 2025, the cumulative retail sales of domestic clothing were 670.83 billion yuan (up 11.95% month - on - month), and the cumulative year - on - year was 2.2% [75][79] 3.4 Options and Stock - Market - Related Market - **Options Market**: Information on the implied volatility of at - the - money cotton options this week is presented, but specific data is not described in text [80] - **Stock Market**: The price - earnings ratio trend of Xinong Development is shown, but specific data is not described in text [83]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of Zhengzhou Cotton 2601 contract decreased this week with a weekly decline of about 2.30%. It is recommended to take a short - term bearish approach towards the Zhengzhou Cotton 2601 contract [8][9]. - According to the USDA report, from September 12 - 18, 2025, the export signing volume of US upland cotton decreased while the shipment volume increased. Domestically, there is a strong expectation of cotton production increase in northern Xinjiang. The purchase price of seed cotton has declined, and downstream spinning mills are less enthusiastic about restocking. The orders of terminal clothing and manufacturing enterprises have not improved significantly, and the cotton yarn inventory is accumulating, so the cotton price is expected to remain weak [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - **Strategy Suggestion**: Adopt a short - term bearish strategy for Zhengzhou Cotton 2601 contract [8]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to the change of foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory [9]. - **Market Review**: The price of Zhengzhou Cotton 2601 contract decreased by about 2.30% this week [9]. - **Market Outlook**: US cotton export signing volume decreased and shipment volume increased. In China, there is a strong production increase expectation in northern Xinjiang, the purchase price of seed cotton declined, downstream demand is weak, and the cotton price is expected to be weak [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **US Cotton Market**: The price of the US cotton December contract decreased by about 0.32% this week. As of September 16, 2025, the non - commercial long positions of US cotton futures decreased by 53 hands, the non - commercial short positions decreased by 8738 hands, and the net short positions decreased by 8685 hands [14]. - **Foreign Cotton Spot Market**: As of September 18, the net increase in US cotton export sales was 86,100 bales. The international cotton spot price was 78.15 cents per pound, down 0.95 cents per pound from last week [18]. - **Futures Market**: The price of Zhengzhou Cotton 2601 contract decreased by about 2.30%, and the price of cotton yarn futures 2511 contract decreased by about 0.63%. As of this week, the net positions of the top 20 in cotton futures were - 21,472 hands, and in cotton yarn futures were - 120 hands. The number of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange cotton futures warehouse receipts was 3397, and that of cotton yarn futures was 0 [23][29][35]. - **Spot Market**: As of September 26, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,043 yuan per ton, and the spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 20,615 yuan per ton [42][53]. - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost**: As of September 25, the imported cotton price with sliding - scale duty was 14,181 yuan per ton, down 124 yuan per ton from last week; the imported cotton quota price was 13,336 yuan per ton, down 191 yuan per ton from last week. The imported cotton yarn price index for different specifications was also provided [58]. - **Imported Cotton Price Cost - Profit**: As of September 25, the estimated profit of imported cotton with sliding - scale duty was 881 yuan per ton, down 124 yuan per ton from last week; the estimated profit of imported cotton with quota was 1726 yuan per ton, down 57 yuan per ton from last week [61]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side - Commercial Cotton Inventory**: As of the end of August, the national commercial cotton inventory was 1481,700 tons, a decrease of 708,100 tons or 32.34% from the previous month. The industrial inventory of cotton textile enterprises was 892,000 tons, a decrease of 600 tons from the previous month [64]. - **Supply Side - Imported Cotton Volume**: In August 2025, China's cotton import volume was about 70,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 80,000 tons or 51.6%. The imported cotton yarn volume was 130,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 20,000 tons [70]. - **Mid - end Industry - Demand Side - Yarn and Grey Cloth Inventory**: As of the end of August, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 26.6 days, a decrease of 1.1 days from the previous month, and the grey cloth inventory was 33.9 days, a decrease of 2.3 days from the previous month [73]. - **Terminal Consumption - Demand Side - Textile and Garment Export Volume**: In August 2025, China's textile and garment export volume was 26.54 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 5% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.8%. Among them, textile exports were 12.39 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 1.5% and a month - on - month increase of 6.8%, and garment exports were 14.15 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 10.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 6.7% [78]. - **Downstream Terminal Consumption - Demand Side - Domestic Garment Retail Sales**: As of August 31, 2025, the cumulative retail sales of domestic garments were 670.83 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 11.95%, and the cumulative year - on - year increase was 2.2% [82]. 3.4 Options and Stock Market - Related Market - **Options Market**: Information about the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money options this week is presented, but no specific data is given [83]. - **Stock Market - Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd.**: A chart of the price - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd. is provided, but no specific analysis is given [87].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The cotton market is experiencing a narrow - range oscillation. The domestic cotton spot trading is increasingly sluggish with stable basis, the cotton yarn market has minor changes, and the cotton fabric market has limited improvement in production and sales with high inventory. The ICE cotton futures declined due to the rising dollar and weak new - crop exports [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Contents a. Cotton Fundamental Data - **Futures**: For CF2601, the yesterday's closing price was 13,835 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.11%, and the night - session closing price was 13,825 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.07%. The trading volume was 196,806 lots, a decrease of 52,459 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 748,215 lots, a decrease of 2,804 lots. For CY2511, the yesterday's closing price was 19,705 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.03%, and the night - session closing price was 19,715 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.05%. The trading volume was 6,245 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 15,633 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots. The ICE cotton futures (December contract) closed at 66.36 cents/pound, a decline of 0.84% [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 8,329, a decrease of 135 compared to the previous day, with 348 valid forecasts (no change). The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 88 (no change), and the valid forecasts increased by 88 [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The price of North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,002 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous day; South Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,687 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The prices in Shandong and Hebei increased by 20 yuan/ton and 18 yuan/ton respectively. The 3128B index was 15,191 yuan/ton, an increase of 13 yuan/ton. The international cotton index M was 74.39 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.36%. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 20,620 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton, and the arrival price was 22,128 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spreads**: The CF9 - 1 spread was - 165 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton compared to the previous day; the spread between North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [1]. b. Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: According to TTEB, the domestic cotton spot trading is increasingly sluggish, and the spot basis is generally stable. Different regions have different sales basis levels [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The pure - cotton yarn market has minor changes. The knitting market in Guangdong has slightly improved, while the weaving market remains dull. The overall market feedback is average, and the cotton yarn prices are mainly stable. The cotton fabric market is cautious, with some improvement in orders for some fabric mills, but the overall order situation has not improved significantly. It is expected that the fabric mills' sales will gradually accelerate in August, and inventory will be digested, but currently, the increase in orders is limited, and the production and sales improvement is limited with high inventory [2]. - **US Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures declined again yesterday due to the rising dollar and weak new - crop exports [3]. c. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6].