Industry Overview - The electric vehicle (EV) market is experiencing significant growth, with EV sales expected to represent 20% of new car sales in 2024 and projected to reach 40% by 2030, indicating a clear growth market for investors [2][3] - The expiration of significant tax breaks for EV purchases in the U.S. is anticipated to impact adoption rates, yet analysts remain optimistic about the overall growth of the EV market [3] Company Insights: VinFast Auto - VinFast Auto primarily produces low-cost EVs in Vietnam, with a current stock price of $3.50 and a price target of $5.75, suggesting a potential upside of nearly 64% [4] - The end of the EV tax credit may benefit VinFast, as its vehicles were previously at a disadvantage due to ineligibility for the credit, leveling the competitive landscape [5] - In 2024, U.S. sales account for only 6.2% of VinFast's total revenues, presenting a significant growth opportunity as the company expands its U.S. presence [6] - VinFast's recent performance shows a 296% increase in EV deliveries and a 473% increase in e-scooter deliveries, although the company remains unprofitable with a gross margin of negative 35%, an improvement from negative 59% a year ago [7] - The opening of a second factory and the signing of its first authorized dealership in California are steps taken to enhance U.S. market presence [8] Company Insights: Lucid Group - Lucid Group's stock is currently priced at $2.30, with a consensus price target of $2.68, indicating a potential upside of 27%, while recent updates suggest a more bullish outlook with a target of $3, implying a 42% upside [9][10] - Approximately 73% of Lucid's revenue comes from the U.S., with the company also facing the expiration of tax credits, which some analysts believe may reduce competition from traditional automakers [10][11] - In Q2, Lucid delivered 3,309 vehicles, marking a 38% increase year-over-year, but the company remains highly unprofitable and needs to significantly boost deliveries to improve its financial standing [12] Competitive Landscape - Both VinFast and Lucid are competing in the crowded U.S. vehicle market, where success is crucial for achieving the scale necessary for profitability [13]

在新能源汽车领域，6月零售111.1万辆，同比增长29.7%，环比增长8.2%；1-6月累计零售546.8万辆，增长33.3%。6月新能源车在国内总 体乘用车的零售渗透率达到53.3%，较去年同期提升4.8百分点，零售渗透率已连续4个月超过50%。 在智通财经记者统计的13家A/H股整车上市公司6月销量表现中，有10家车企实现同比增长，占比77%。"在传统车企中，以比亚迪、吉 利、长安等为代表的企业表现突出，尤其是国有企业的新能源车获得了超强增长，并且在海外市场取得了巨大突破。"乘联分会秘书长崔 东树表示。 | | | | | 部分A/H整车上市公司2025年6月销量(单位:辆) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上市车企 | 6月 | 同比 | 环比 | 6月新能源 | 同比 | 新能源占比 | 2025年累计 | 同比 | | 比亚迪 | 382.585 | 11.98% | 0.03% | 382,585 | 11.98% | 100.00% | 2.145.954 | 33.04% | | 上汽集团 ...

增长最快的是蜂巢能源，电池使用量从2024年1-5月的5GWh增长到2025年1-5月的10.5 GWh，同比增长 110.1%，市场份额增长到2.6%。 SNE Research 的报告强调了全球电动汽车电池市场的快速增长和竞争格局的变化。CATL和BYD的显著 增长表明中国制造商在全球电池市场中的重要性日益增加。同时，韩国制造商的稳健表现和新兴制造商 的崛起也为市场带来了更多的活力和创新。随着全球对电动汽车需求的不断增长，预计电池市场将继续 扩大，竞争也将更加激烈。 中国的比亚迪（BYD）在2025年1-5月实现了强劲的增长，电池使用量从44.5 GWh增长到70 GWh，同 比增长57.1%，市场份额增长到17.4%，位居第二。 韩国电池制造商LG能源解决方案和SK on表现平稳。LG能源解决方案的电池使用量从34.9 GWh增长到 39.9 GWh，同比增长14.3%，市场份额下降到10%。SK on的电池使用量从14.2 GWh增长到16.8 GWh， 同比增长18.1%，市场份额为4.2%。 其他值得注意的制造商包括中创新航（CALB），其电池使用量从2024年1-5月的13.7 GWh增长到20 ...

Group 1 - The electric vehicle market is experiencing a recovery, with Tesla's new car sales in the UK showing a year-on-year increase in June [1] - The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) reported a 6.7% increase in new car registrations in the UK, totaling 191,316 vehicles, with pure electric vehicle demand being a significant growth driver [1] - Pure electric vehicle demand surged by 39% year-on-year to 47,354 units, indicating that one in four car buyers opted for electric vehicles [1] Group 2 - Tesla's sales in June reached 7,719 units, reflecting a 14% year-on-year growth, although there are discrepancies in sales figures reported by different agencies [1] - Cumulatively, Tesla's sales in the UK have declined by nearly 2% this year, while Chinese competitor BYD's sales have surged nearly fourfold to 2,498 units [1] - The recent US-UK trade agreement has reduced tariffs on certain UK imports, lowering the tariff on UK automotive exports to the US from 27.5% to a quota-based rate of 10% [2] Group 3 - Future growth in the electric vehicle industry will depend on the expansion and upgrading of charging infrastructure, which is crucial for mainstream adoption [2] - Ford is expected to lead the market in electric vehicle sales growth in the UK, with an anticipated increase of over four times year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [2]

欧洲汽车制造商协会数据显示，5月欧盟新车注册量同比增长1.6%，连续第二个月实现增长。同时，欧 盟电动汽车市场5月同比增长27.2%，消费者需求强劲。纯电动和混合动力车型渗透率提升，消费者品 牌偏好多元化。(环球时报) ...

智通财经5月21日电，乘联分会发布数据，5月1-18日，全国乘用车市场零售93.2万辆，同比去年5月同 期增长12%，较上月同期增长18%，今年以来累计零售780.4万辆，同比增长8%；5月1-18日，全国乘用 车新能源市场零售48.4万辆，同比去年5月同期增长32%，较上月同期增长15%，全国新能源市场零售渗 透率52%，今年以来累计零售380.8万辆，同比增长35%。 5月1-18日全国乘用车市场零售同比增长12% 较上月同期增长18% ...

（文章来源：经济日报） 报告预计，2030年前电动汽车全球市场占有率将超过40%，中国电动汽车市场占有率甚至可能达到 80%，欧洲接近60%，美国约20%，东南亚25%的新车将是电动汽车，两轮/三轮电动车将达三分之一。 届时，全球电动汽车每日可减少500万桶石油消耗，中国贡献其中50%的节油量。 报告指出，电动汽车销量连创新高将对国际汽车产业格局产生深远影响。当前，关税壁垒、经济下行与 油价下跌等因素都可能冲击全球汽车市场，但电动汽车的使用成本仍具有优势。比如，即便油价跌至40 美元/桶，欧洲家庭的电动汽车使用成本仍比燃油车低约50%。 2024年，全球纯电动汽车平均价格下降，但价格差异分化显著。在中国，无需补贴的情况下，2024年售 出的电动汽车中有三分之二的售价已低于同级别燃油车，中国的电动汽车出口降低了新兴市场国家的电 动汽车平均价格。但在德国，纯电动汽车平均价格仍比同级别燃油车价格高出20%，美国市场价差更是 高达30%。同时，充电网络建设滞后严重制约电动汽车发展。报告指出，美国、英国公共充电桩建设跟 不上电动汽车增速，欧洲只有75%的高速公路每50公里设置快充站，而美国更是不足半数。到2030年， ...

期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025年05月16日 | 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 | | --- | 观点与策略 | 黄金：下破支撑位 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡回落 | 3 | | 铜：缺乏明确驱动，价格震荡 | 5 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 7 | | 氧化铝：继续反弹 | 7 | | 锌：价格下调 | 9 | | 铅：区间调整 | 10 | | 锡：窄幅震荡 | 11 | | 镍：消息面扰动情绪，基本面变化有限 | 13 | | 不锈钢：库存高位小幅去化，短线修复或难以过高 | 13 | | 碳酸锂：累库格局难反转，偏弱走势或延续 | 15 | | 工业硅：弱势基本面依旧，盘面具备下行驱动 | 17 | | 多晶硅：下游继续跌价，盘面弱势 | 17 | | 铁矿石：短期利多兑现，上涨驱动放缓 | 19 | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 硅铁：主产区减产集中，硅铁宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 锰硅：原料价格继续探涨，锰硅宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦炭：铁水下行，宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 焦煤：铁水下行，宽幅震荡 | 24 | | ...

碳酸锂产业日报 2025/5/15 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 助理研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建 议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发， 需注明出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | | 撰写人：王福辉 从业资格证号：F03123381 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0019878 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 64,120.00 | -1080.00↓ 前20名净持仓（日，手） | -40,116 ...

Core Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports strong growth in the global electric vehicle (EV) market despite economic uncertainties, with global EV sales expected to exceed 20 million units by 2025, accounting for over 25% of total new car sales [1] - China continues to lead the market, with EV sales projected to surpass 11 million units in 2024, representing nearly 50% of domestic new car sales [1] - Emerging markets such as Asia and Latin America are experiencing rapid growth, with annual increases exceeding 60% [1] - If countries fulfill their energy and climate commitments, EVs are expected to account for over 40% of global new car sales by 2030 [1]