Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports increased biodiesel consumption. The domestic tariff on Canadian rapeseed has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector, and the domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral with stable import inventories. Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations have an impact on the market at the macro level. [3][5][6] - The main logic currently revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats. The main risk factor is El Niño weather. [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views - Soybean Oil - The main long positions in soybean oil have increased, indicating a bullish signal. [3] - The MPOB report shows that in May, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with the production decline falling short of expectations. Currently, the shipping survey agency shows that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season, presenting a neutral situation. [3][4] - The spot price of soybean oil is 8,580, with a basis of 54, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, a bullish signal. [4] - On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year, a bearish signal. [4] - The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward, a bullish signal. [4] - Soybean oil Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,200 - 8,600. [3] Daily Views - Palm Oil - The main short positions in palm oil have decreased, indicating a bearish signal. [5] - Similar to the soybean oil situation, the MPOB report on Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season. [5] - The spot price of palm oil is 9,650, with a basis of 10, indicating a neutral situation. [5] - On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year, a bullish signal. [5] - The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward, a bullish signal. [5] - Palm oil P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,300 - 9,700. [5] Daily Views - Rapeseed Oil - The main short positions in rapeseed oil have increased, indicating a bearish signal. [6] - The MPOB report on Malaysian palm oil is the same as above, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season. [6] - The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,900, with a basis of 50, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, a bullish signal. [6] - On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year, a bearish signal. [6] - The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward, a bullish signal. [6] - Rapeseed oil OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,600 - 10,000. [6] Recent利多利空Analysis - Bullish factors include the US soybean stock-to-use ratio remaining around 4%, indicating tight supply, and the palm oil production reduction season. [7] - Bearish factors include the historically high prices of oils and fats, the continuous accumulation of domestic oils and fats inventories, the weak macroeconomy, and the high expected production of related oils and fats. [7]

证券代码：839979 油脂早报 2025-08-19投资咨询部 分析师: 王明伟 从业资格号： F0283029 投资咨询号： Z0010442 TEL: 0575-85226759 每日观点 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕5月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前 马棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入增产季，棕榈油供应上有所增加。中性 2.基差：豆油现货8580，基差64，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：7月4日豆油商业库存88万吨，前86万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线上，20日均线朝上。偏多 5.主力持仓：豆油主力多增。偏多 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。24/25年USDA南美产量预期较高，马 棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，美豆油生柴政策扶持生柴消费增加。国内对加 菜加征关税导致菜系领涨，国内油脂基本面偏中性，进口库存稳定。中美及中加关系缓和宏观层面影 响市场。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The price of oils and fats will fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose with stable supply. The USDA's South American production forecast for 24/25 is high. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 promotes domestic consumption, and the US soybean oil biodiesel policy supports increased biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to the leadership of the rapeseed sector. The domestic oil and fat fundamentals are neutral, and import inventories are stable. The easing of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level [2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that in May, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, the shipping survey agency shows that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,600, with a basis of 80, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 20,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 11.7% [2] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [2] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have decreased [2] - **Expectation**: Soybean oil Y2601 will fluctuate in the range of 8,250 - 8,650 [2] Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report shows neutral results with less - than - expected production cuts, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9,400, with a basis of 32, indicating a neutral situation [3] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 10,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 34.1% [3] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [3] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have increased [3] - **Expectation**: Palm oil P2601 will fluctuate in the range of 9,150 - 9,550 [3] Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: The same MPOB report situation as above, indicating neutral fundamentals and increasing palm oil supply later [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,000, with a basis of 160, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 20,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [4] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [4] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased [4] - **Expectation**: Rapeseed oil OI2601 will fluctuate in the range of 9,600 - 10,000 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely**: The US soybean stocks - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply, and it is the palm oil production - reduction season [5] - **Unlikely**: The price of oils and fats is at a relatively high historical level, and domestic oil and fat inventories are continuously accumulating. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of relevant oils and fats is high [5] - **Main Logic**: The global oil and fat fundamentals are relatively loose [5]

证券代码：839979 油脂早报 2025-08-14投资咨询部 分析师: 王明伟 从业资格号： F0283029 投资咨询号： Z0010442 TEL: 0575-85226759 每日观点 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕5月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前 马棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入增产季，棕榈油供应上有所增加。中性 2.基差：豆油现货8656，基差80，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：7月4日豆油商业库存88万吨，前86万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线上，20日均线朝上。偏多 5.主力持仓：豆油主力多增。偏多 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。24/25年USDA南美产量预期较高，马 棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，美豆油生柴政策扶持生柴消费增加。国内对加 菜加征关税导致菜系领涨，国内油脂基本面偏中性，进口库存稳定。中美及中加关系缓和宏观层面影 响市场。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are in a range-bound consolidation. The domestic fundamental situation is loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA expects high yields in South America for the 24/25 season. Malaysian palm oil inventories are neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports increased biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector. The domestic fundamental situation of oils and fats is neutral, and import inventories are stable. The easing of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level [2][3][4] - The main logic currently revolves around the relatively loose global fundamental situation of oils and fats. The main risk factor is El Niño weather [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that in May, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and end-of-month inventories decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral with less-than-expected production cuts. Current ship survey agencies indicate a 4% month-on-month increase in Malaysian palm oil export data this month, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,480, with a basis of 80, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [2] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous 860,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 20,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 11.7% [2] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [2] - **Main positions**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased [2] - **Expectation**: The soybean oil Y2509 contract is expected to trade in a range of 8,200 - 8,600 [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral with less-than-expected production cuts, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9,080, with a basis of 100, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [3] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous 390,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 10,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 34.1% [3] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [3] - **Main positions**: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased [3] - **Expectation**: The palm oil P2509 contract is expected to trade in a range of 8,800 - 9,200 [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral with less-than-expected production cuts, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,680, with a basis of 106, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [4] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous 630,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 20,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [4] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [4] - **Main positions**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased [4] - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil OI2509 contract is expected to trade in a range of 9,400 - 9,800 [4] Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - **Bullish factors**: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. It is the palm oil production cut season [5] - **Bearish factors**: The prices of oils and fats are at relatively high historical levels, and domestic inventories of oils and fats are continuously accumulating. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of relevant oils and fats is high [5] Supply and Demand Aspects - **Supply**: Includes import soybean inventory [6], soybean oil inventory [8], soybean meal inventory [10], oil mill soybean crushing [12], palm oil inventory [17], rapeseed oil inventory [20], rapeseed inventory [22], and total domestic oils and fats inventory [24] - **Demand**: Includes soybean oil apparent consumption [14]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate within a certain range. Domestic fundamentals are loose, and domestic oil and fat supplies are stable. The 2024/2025 USDA South American production forecast is high, Malaysian palm oil inventories are neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US soybean oil biodiesel policy supports increased biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector. Domestic oil and fat fundamentals are neutral, and import inventories are stable. Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations have an impact on the market at the macro level. [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in May decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and end-of-month inventories decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with less-than-expected production cuts. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that Malaysian palm oil export data for this month has increased by 4% month-on-month. Subsequently, entering the production season, palm oil supply will increase. [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,472, with a basis of 66, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. [2] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, compared with 860,000 tons previously, a month-on-month increase of 20,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 11.7%. [2] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. [2] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have decreased. [2] - **Expectation**: The soybean oil Y2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,250 - 8,650. [2] Daily Views - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and palm oil supply will increase in the production season. [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9,022, with a basis of 52, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. [3] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, compared with 390,000 tons previously, a month-on-month decrease of 10,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 34.1%. [3] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. [3] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased. [3] - **Expectation**: The palm oil P2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,800 - 9,200. [3] Daily Views - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and palm oil supply will increase in the production season. [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,678, with a basis of 116, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. [4] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, compared with 630,000 tons previously, a month-on-month increase of 20,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 3.2%. [4] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. [4] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased. [4] - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil OI2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,400 - 9,800. [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多**: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. [5] - **利空**: The prices of oils and fats are historically high, domestic oil and fat inventories are continuously increasing, the macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high. [5] - **Main Logic**: The global oil and fat fundamentals are relatively loose. [5] Supply - **Imported Soybean Inventory**: No specific data provided, only mentioned in the catalog. [6] - **Soybean Oil Inventory**: No specific data provided, only mentioned in the catalog. [7] - **Soybean Meal Inventory**: No specific data provided, only mentioned in the catalog. [9] - **Oil Mill Soybean Crushing**: No specific data provided, only mentioned in the catalog. [11] - **Palm Oil Inventory**: No specific data provided, only mentioned in the catalog. [17] - **Rapeseed Oil Inventory**: No specific data provided, only mentioned in the catalog. [19] - **Rapeseed Inventory**: No specific data provided, only mentioned in the catalog. [21] - **Domestic Total Oil and Fat Inventory**: No specific data provided, only mentioned in the catalog. [23] Demand - **Soybean Oil Apparent Consumption**: No specific data provided, only mentioned in the catalog. [13] - **Soybean Meal Apparent Consumption**: No specific data provided, only mentioned in the catalog. [15]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, the demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports the increase in biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to the rise of the rapeseed sector. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable. The easing of China-US and China-Canada relations affects the market at the macro level [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that in May, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with the production cut falling short of expectations. Currently, shipping survey agencies indicate that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month. Subsequently, as the peak production season approaches, the supply of palm oil will increase [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,448, with a basis of 96, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year, which is bearish [2]. - **Market**: The futures price is trading above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward, which is bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have decreased, which is bullish [2]. - **Expectation**: The price of soybean oil Y2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,100 - 8,500 [2]. Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report shows neutral conditions with production cuts falling short of expectations and subsequent supply increase [3]. - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 8,962, with a basis of 644, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish [3]. - **Inventory**: On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year, which is bullish [3]. - **Market**: The futures price is trading above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward, which is bullish [3]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased, which is bearish [3]. - **Expectation**: The price of palm oil P2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,800 - 9,200 [3]. Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report shows neutral conditions with production cuts falling short of expectations and subsequent supply increase [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,708, with a basis of 93, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year, which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The futures price is trading above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The price of rapeseed oil OI2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,350 - 9,750 [4]. Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high level historically, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats has been continuously increasing. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5]. - **Current Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high. The Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports increased biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed by China has led to a rally in the rapeseed sector. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable. The easing of China-US and China-Canada relations has an impact on the market at the macro level [3][5][6]. - The main logical focus is on the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats. The current main risk is the El Niño weather [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that in May, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with the production cut falling short of expectations. Currently, the shipping survey agency shows that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season [3][4][5]. - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8400, with a basis of 126, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4]. - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year [4]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [4]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have decreased [3]. - **Expectation**: The soybean oil contract Y2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8000 - 8400 [3]. Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report shows neutral results, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9000, with a basis of 90, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [5]. - **Inventory**: On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year [5]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [5]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased [5]. - **Expectation**: The palm oil contract P2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8500 - 8900 [5]. Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report shows neutral results, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season [6]. - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9600, with a basis of 76, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [6]. - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year [6]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [6]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased [6]. - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil contract OI2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9300 - 9700 [6]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多**: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating a tight supply. It is the palm oil production cut season [7]. - **利空**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high level historically, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats has been continuously increasing. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [7]. Supply and Demand Aspects - **Supply**: Includes aspects such as imported soybean inventory, soybean oil inventory, soybean meal inventory, oil mill soybean crushing, palm oil inventory, rapeseed oil inventory, rapeseed inventory, and total domestic inventory of oils and fats [8][10][12][14][19][22][24][26]. - **Demand**: The apparent consumption of soybean oil is mentioned [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports an increase in biodiesel consumption. The domestic tariff on Canadian rapeseed has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector, and the domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral with stable import inventories. The easing of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level. Soybean oil Y2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8000 - 8400, palm oil P2509 in the range of 8600 - 9000, and rapeseed oil OI2509 in the range of 9300 - 9700 [3][5][6] Summary by Directory Soybean Oil - Fundamental: The MPOB report shows that Malaysia's palm oil production in May decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. Currently, the shipping survey agency shows that Malaysia's palm oil export data this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season [3][4][5] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8360, with a basis of 168, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4] - Inventory: On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 20,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 11.7% [4] - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [4] - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased [3] - Expectation: Soybean oil Y2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8000 - 8400 [3] Palm Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. The current export data has increased, and the supply will increase in the subsequent production season [5] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 9000, with a basis of 100, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [5] - Inventory: On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 10,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 34.1% [5] - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [5] - Main Position: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have increased [5] - Expectation: Palm oil P2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8600 - 9000 [5] Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. The current export data has increased, and the supply will increase in the subsequent production season [6] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9600, with a basis of 90, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [6] - Inventory: On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 20,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [6] - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [6] - Main Position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased [6] - Expectation: Rapeseed oil OI2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9300 - 9700 [6] Recent利多利空Analysis -利多: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. It is the palm oil production cut season [7] -利空: The prices of oils and fats are historically high, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats continues to accumulate. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [7] - Main Logic: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [7] Supply and Demand - Supply: It includes imports of soybean inventory, soybean oil inventory, soybean meal inventory, oil mill soybean crushing, palm oil inventory, rapeseed oil inventory, rapeseed inventory, and domestic total inventory of oils and fats [8][10][12] - Demand: It includes the apparent consumption of soybean oil [16]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is relatively high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports the increase in biodiesel consumption. The additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China have led to the rise of rapeseed products, and the domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral with stable import inventories. The easing of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level [3][5][6]. - The current main logic revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that Malaysia's palm oil production in May decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production reduction is less than expected. Currently, the shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season [3][4][5]. - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8320, with a basis of 200, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4]. - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year - on - year [4]. - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [4]. - **Main positions**: The long positions of the soybean oil main contract have increased [3]. - **Expectation**: The soybean oil Y2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7900 - 8300 [3]. Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production reduction, and the subsequent supply will increase [3][5][6]. - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9000, with a basis of 54, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [5]. - **Inventory**: On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year - on - year [5]. - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [5]. - **Main positions**: The short positions of the palm oil main contract have decreased [5]. - **Expectation**: The palm oil P2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8700 - 9100 [5]. Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production reduction, and the subsequent supply will increase [3][5][6]. - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9550, with a basis of 144, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [6]. - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year - on - year [6]. - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [6]. - **Main positions**: The short positions of the rapeseed oil main contract have decreased [6]. - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil OI2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9200 - 9600 [6]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Positive factors**: The inventory - to - sales ratio of US soybeans remains around 4%, indicating a tight supply. It is the palm oil production reduction season [7]. - **Negative factors**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high level historically, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats is continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [7].