作者丨以南 回望即将结束的2025年，"玩具"再次成为一种被频繁提及的消费关键词。从"谷子经济"的流行，到扭蛋机、智能玩具在不同地区走红，围绕收藏、陪伴与 情绪价值展开的玩具消费，正在持续扩展其边界。 从规模层面看，这一趋势已有清晰的数据支撑。根据Global Growth Insights发布的报告，2024年全球收藏玩具市场规模约为142.8亿美元，预计2025年将增 长至158.9亿美元，并在2034年进一步扩大至379.7亿美元，2025—2034 年间的复合年增长率约为10.16%。在各细分类型中，潮流玩具（以下简称"潮玩"） 占据重要位置，其在全球消费者偏好中的占比已超过36%。报告同时指出，受流行文化与社交传播影响，约有40%的玩家在购买时优先考虑限量版潮玩， 显示出明显的收藏导向。 来源：Global Growth Insights 这一变化并不只体现在数据层面。法国媒体《Le Monde》（《世界报》）在2025年12月23日发布的调查中提到，成年人收藏潮玩已逐渐成为一种普遍现 象，潮玩消费正在从传统意义上的儿童玩具，延伸为与情绪表达、个人兴趣相关的消费选择。 当潮玩逐步进入更广泛的消费人群 ...

浙商证券股份有限公司 浙商证券股份有限公司 10月防守，11月进攻 传媒互联网行业四季度策略报告 行业评级：看好 2025年10月15日 | 分析师 | | 分析师 | 分析师 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 邮箱 | fengcuiting@stocke.com.c 邮箱 n | xuziwei@stocke.com.cn | 邮箱 chenlei01@stocke.com.cn | | 证书编号 S1230525010001 | | 证书编号 S1230524120005 | 证书编号 S1230521090002 | □ 10月开盘遇外围因素影响,创业板/TMT避险情绪高涨,前期估值快速提升的游戏板块及阿里巴巴等个股出现不同程度的调整 传媒指数(中信):自9月25日至10月14日3659.98高位下调近10个百分点; 游戏指数(中信)：自9月25日至10月14日2259.37高位下调近14个百分点; 阿里巴巴-W: 自10月3日至10月14日186.2元高位下调近17个百分点 口 但上述板块及个股基本面表现依然强势,建议择机买入: 阿里巴巴云业务表现能支撑估值上调，腾讯游戏及 ...

Core Insights - The conversation features Luo Yonghao discussing the rapid growth of Miniso, founded by Ye Guofu, highlighting its unique market positioning in China [1] - Miniso achieved a remarkable milestone, growing from zero to 10 billion in revenue within five years, surpassing Alibaba's growth rate in the same metric [1] - At its peak, Miniso opened over 1,000 stores in a single year, demonstrating a high conversion rate of 30% in-store, which is notably higher than typical e-commerce conversion rates [1]

Core Insights - The conversation features Ye Guofu, the founder of Miniso, discussing trends in consumer goods and the concept of "fat modification stores" [1] Group 1: Company Insights - Ye Guofu expresses a personal affinity for shopping, stating that his entrepreneurial journey was inspired by his experiences while shopping [1] - The idea for Miniso was born from observing the attractive and competitively priced designs of Japanese variety and department stores, which were not present in China at the time [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - The discussion highlights the growing trend of integrating aesthetically pleasing and affordable retail concepts into the Chinese market, as exemplified by Miniso's business model [1]

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan's research report indicates that Pop Mart's third-quarter sales grew by 245% year-on-year, significantly exceeding the bank's expectation of 140% and the market's expectation of 180% [1] Sales Performance - Third-quarter sales are projected to increase by 64% quarter-on-quarter [1] - For the fourth quarter, sales are expected to grow by 184% year-on-year, driven by increased production capacity and upcoming traditional holidays such as Halloween, Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and Christmas [1] Profit Forecast - JPMorgan has raised its profit forecasts for Pop Mart for the years 2025 to 2027 by 9% to 17% [1] - The bank predicts that this year, sales and profits will grow by 209% and 340% year-on-year, respectively [1] Target Price Adjustment - The target price for Pop Mart has been increased from HKD 320 to HKD 350, maintaining an "Overweight" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - Bubble Mart (09992.HK) reported a significant revenue growth of 245%-250% year-on-year for Q3 2025, with notable performance in both domestic and international markets [2][6]. Revenue Growth - Overall revenue for Q3 2025 increased by 245%-250% year-on-year, with domestic revenue growing by 185%-190% and international revenue soaring by 365%-370% [6]. - In the Chinese market, offline channels saw a growth of 130%-135%, while online channels experienced a remarkable increase of 300%-305% [6]. - The Americas market exhibited the highest growth, with revenue increasing by 1265%-1270%, followed by the Asia-Pacific region at 170%-175%, and Europe and other regions at 735%-740% [6]. Half-Year Performance - For the first half of 2025, Bubble Mart reported a revenue of 13.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 204.4%, and an adjusted net profit of 4.71 billion yuan, up 362.8% [7]. - The revenue breakdown for the first half included 8.28 billion yuan from China (up 135.2%), 2.85 billion yuan from Asia-Pacific (up 257.8%), 2.26 billion yuan from the Americas (up 1142.3%), and 480 million yuan from Europe and other regions (up 729.2%) [7]. Market Reaction - Despite the strong Q3 results, Bubble Mart's stock fell by 8.08% on the day of the announcement, marking the largest single-day drop since early April [10]. - As of October 21, the stock closed at 250.4 HKD per share, with a total market capitalization exceeding 330 billion HKD [10]. Analyst Outlook - Analysts remain optimistic about Bubble Mart's future, with several institutions upgrading their ratings. For instance, JPMorgan raised its rating from "Neutral" to "Overweight," citing attractive valuations and potential catalysts from Q3 data and upcoming sales [11]. - Recent reports from various brokerages highlight the growth potential of the Chinese toy market, projecting a compound annual growth rate of 23.2% from 2019 to 2024, with further growth expected to 213.3 billion yuan by 2030 [12].

Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart (09992) has seen a significant increase in stock price, reflecting strong consumer interest and sales momentum driven by new product launches and upcoming seasonal demand [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Pop Mart's stock price rose over 4% during trading, with a current price of 269.80 HKD and a trading volume of 2.864 billion HKD [1] - As of the report, the stock price increased by 2.82% [1] Group 2: Product Demand - The new product series "WHY SO SERIOUS" and "MOKOKO" sold out immediately upon release, indicating high consumer demand [1] - The resale prices for the hidden items from the "WHY SO SERIOUS" series reached 1999 HKD and 2099 HKD, significantly higher than the original price of 159 HKD [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley's recent report suggests that Pop Mart will experience multiple consumption peaks in the coming months, including China's National Day and Western holidays such as Halloween, Thanksgiving, and Christmas [1] - The firm anticipates sustained sales momentum due to sufficient inventory of popular products, new product launches, and store expansions [1]

Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart (09992) shares rose over 4%, reaching 273.8 HKD with a trading volume of 1.987 billion HKD, driven by strong consumer interest in new product launches and upcoming festive seasons [1] Group 1: Product Performance - On October 9, Pop Mart's new product series "WHY SO SERIOUS" and "MOKOKO" sold out immediately upon release [1] - The secondary market prices for the "WHY SO SERIOUS" hidden items reached 1999 HKD and 2099 HKD, significantly higher than the original price of 159 HKD [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley's recent report indicates that Pop Mart is expected to experience multiple consumer peaks in the coming months, including China's National Day and Western holidays such as Halloween, Thanksgiving, and Christmas [1] - The firm anticipates sustained sales momentum due to sufficient inventory of popular products, new launches, and store expansions [1]

Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart (09992) has seen a stock price increase of over 4%, currently trading at 273.8 HKD with a transaction volume of 1.987 billion HKD, driven by strong consumer interest and sales performance of new product launches [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - On October 9, Pop Mart's new product series, WHY SO SERIOUS, and MOKOKO sold out immediately upon release [1] - The secondary market prices for the WHY SO SERIOUS hidden items reached 1999 HKD and 2099 HKD, significantly higher than the original price of 159 HKD [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley's recent report indicates that Pop Mart is expected to experience multiple consumption peaks in the coming months, including China's National Day and Western holidays such as Halloween, Thanksgiving, and Christmas [1] - The firm anticipates sustained sales momentum due to sufficient inventory of popular products, new product launches, and store expansions [1]

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the transformation of the maternal and infant retail industry from a demographic dividend to a quality-driven growth model, with a focus on service and consumer needs [3][4]. Company Strategy - The company, Aiyingshi, has redefined its slogan to include "health," indicating a strategic shift towards expanding into the health sector while maintaining its core maternal and infant business [4]. - Aiyingshi has implemented a new store model, reducing the number of SKUs from approximately 3,000 to 1,500, which has improved store efficiency despite a 3% decrease in revenue [4][5]. - The company has opened 34 new high-quality maternal and infant stores across 22 cities in China, bringing the total number of stores to 504 as of August [4]. Product Development - Aiyingshi has developed a range of proprietary brands, including nutritional and health products, diapers, clothing, toys, and cleaning supplies, enhancing its brand matrix [5]. - The company has focused on creating a fruit puree product line, achieving a price point nearly half that of similar products, while emphasizing food safety and quality [5][6]. Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, Aiyingshi reported revenue of 1.835 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.31%, and a net profit of 55 million, reflecting a 20.16% increase, indicating improved operational efficiency [6]. Market Trends - The company is adapting to the growing trend of instant retail by collaborating with online platforms such as Meituan and JD Daojia, with e-commerce now accounting for nearly 15% of overall business revenue [7]. - Aiyingshi has ventured into the trendy toy market, opening new stores in collaboration with Bandai Namco, with plans to expand by 3 to 5 stores annually over the next three years [8]. Entrepreneurial Philosophy - The company’s leadership views entrepreneurship as a continuous journey, emphasizing the importance of consumer feedback, particularly negative reviews, as a means for improvement [9]. - The focus on long-term vision over short-term results is highlighted, with a commitment to sustained growth and adaptation in the evolving market landscape [9].