1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term SH2603 is expected to show a fluctuating trend, with attention on the support around 2090 and the resistance around 2260 [3][4] - The spot supply and demand of liquid caustic soda remain generally loose, and the purchase and market prices of the 32% liquid caustic soda main product in Shandong have declined recently [3] - The planned maintenance capacity of chlor - alkali in January is small, and the previously shut - down devices are restarting one after another. Domestic chlor - alkali devices are expected to maintain a high - operation state [3] - The operating load of alumina enterprises will basically remain stable in the short term, and non - aluminum downstream may maintain rigid procurement with little change [3] - Although the profit of Shandong chlor - alkali has narrowed due to the decline in caustic soda prices, it is still in a theoretical profit state [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda contract is 2194 yuan/ton, and the position volume of the main caustic soda contract is 159,963 hands, with a decrease of 15,593 hands [3] - The net position of the top 20 in futures is - 14,547 hands, and the trading volume of the main caustic soda contract is 344,227 hands, with an increase of 30,386 hands [3] - The closing price of the January caustic soda contract is 1970 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the May caustic soda contract is 2330 yuan/ton, with an increase of 27 [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 690 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu is 780 yuan/ton [3] - The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 2156.25 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 38 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 30 [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 250 yuan/ton, and in the Northwest is 220 yuan/ton [3] - The price of steam coal is 642 yuan/ton [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is 250 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu is 225 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 25 [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 12,900 yuan/ton, and the spot price of alumina is 2600 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 10 [3] 3.6 Industry News - From December 27 to January 2, China's caustic soda capacity utilization rate was 86.4%, a week - on - week increase of 0.4% [3] - From December 27 to January 2, the alumina operating rate decreased by 0.47% week - on - week to 84.67%, the viscose staple fiber operating rate decreased by 1.61% week - on - week to 85.42%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate decreased by 0.47% week - on - week to 60.81% [3] - As of January 2, the inventory of liquid caustic soda factories was 485,700 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 9.84% [3] - From December 25 to January 4, the weekly average profit of Shandong chlor - alkali was 153 yuan/ton, a decrease compared with the previous period [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the inventory of liquid caustic soda factories accumulated significantly. Affected by the decline in caustic soda prices, the profits of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises decreased month - on - month and maintained a contraction trend. This week, some facilities in East and North China will restart, and the newly followed - up maintenance capacity is scarce. The utilization rate of caustic soda production capacity is expected to increase month - on - month. In December, caustic soda is generally expected to be in a situation of relatively high supply. Alumina enterprises have no news of production cuts, and their procurement demand is low under the background of low profits; non - aluminum downstream may maintain rigid procurement with little change. The inventory is expected to remain at a high level, the supply will continue to be loose, the spot price will be under pressure, and it is more likely that the spot price will decline to narrow the basis in the future. SH2601 is expected to fluctuate weakly, but the high basis and low corresponding profit level may limit the decline space, with the daily range expected to be around 2180 - 2250 [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda contract was 2212 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton; the position of the main caustic soda contract was 148,447 lots, a decrease of 8006 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures was 5467 lots; the trading volume of the main caustic soda contract was 275,167 lots, an increase of 69,841 lots; the closing price of the January caustic soda contract was 2212 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton; the closing price of the May caustic soda contract was 2390 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton; the net position of the top 20 futures was - 18,551 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 880 yuan/ton, unchanged; the converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2281 yuan/ton, a decrease of 63 yuan/ton; the basis of caustic soda was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 51 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 222.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it was 220 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of steam coal was 654 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was 50.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 150 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,060 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina was 2770 yuan/ton, unchanged. From November 21st to 27th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 85.0%, a month - on - month increase of 0.4%. From November 22nd to 28th, the alumina operating rate increased by 0.60% month - on - month to 86.06%, the viscose staple fiber operating rate increased by 1.20% month - on - month to 91.29%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate decreased by 1.02% month - on - month to 65.53%. As of November 27th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises nationwide was 469,800 tons (wet tons), a month - on - month increase of 9.89% and a year - on - year increase of 87.95%. From November 21st to 27th, the average weekly profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 357 yuan/ton, a decrease from the previous week [2].

Group 1: Core Viewpoints - Last week, the subsidy for liquid chlorine in Shandong was alleviated, but due to the significant decline in caustic soda prices, the profit of chlor-alkali in Shandong contracted on a month-on-month basis. The chlor-alkali maintenance plan in September was basically fulfilled. This week, multiple sets of equipment such as Xinpu Chemical, Gansu Jinchuan, and Heilongjiang Haohua will restart, which is expected to drive the capacity utilization rate of caustic soda to rise month-on-month [3]. - The profit of alumina continued to shrink. Although enterprises have not yet experienced cost-driven production cuts, their purchasing intention has significantly weakened. The terminal demand in the traditional peak season is average, and non-aluminum downstream is resistant to high prices. Considering the relatively loose supply of liquid caustic soda during the pre-National Day replenishment period for downstream, the spot price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong is expected to remain under pressure [3]. - In the futures market, the recent market sentiment has declined, and the sharp decline in the futures price has led to the convergence of the basis. From the fourth quarter to early next year, the commissioning of new alumina plants will still support the demand. Attention should be paid to the subsequent stocking rhythm. Technically, SH2601 should focus on the support of the lower Bollinger Band around 2500 [3]. Group 2: Market Data Summary Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda contract was 2548 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 13 yuan/ton. The open interest of the main caustic soda contract was 112,252 lots, a decrease of 3789 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures traders was -8138 lots, an increase of 880 lots. The trading volume of the main caustic soda contract was 346,437 lots, a decrease of 73,773 lots. The closing price of the January caustic soda contract was 2548 yuan/ton, an increase of 13 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the May caustic soda contract was 2640 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton [3]. Spot Market - The price of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 940 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of caustic soda was -48 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan/ton [3]. Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong and the Northwest was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal was 643 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was -150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 0 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,120 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina was 2910 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton [3]. Group 3: Industry News Summary - From September 12th to 18th, the average national capacity utilization rate of caustic soda was 81.9%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.5%. From September 13th to 19th, the alumina operating rate increased by 1.02% month-on-month to 86.23%, the viscose staple fiber operating rate increased by 1.75% month-on-month to 89.52%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate remained stable at 65.76% [3]. - As of September 18th, the inventory of liquid caustic soda factories nationwide increased by 6.02% month-on-month to 378,300 tons, and the trend changed from decreasing to increasing. From September 12th to 18th, the profit of chlor-alkali in Shandong decreased to 328 yuan/ton [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - SH2601 fluctuated strongly and closed at 2,571 yuan/ton. Last week, the average national caustic soda capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.8% to 83.4%. In terms of demand, the alumina开工率 increased by 0.83% to 85.21%, the viscose staple fiber开工率 increased by 0.67% to 87.77%, and the printing and dyeing开工率 increased by 0.13% to 65.76%. The inventory of national liquid caustic soda factories decreased by 7.99% to 356,800 tons last week, resuming the destocking trend. There are planned maintenance devices in the northwest and northeast this week, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to decline month - on - month. There are many maintenance plans for chlor - alkali devices in September, and the industry supply pressure is expected to be relieved. Alumina enterprises' profits are shrinking but there is no cost - based production cut, and the amount of caustic soda delivered is still high. Non - aluminum downstream in Shandong shows resistance to high prices, and the market price of liquid caustic soda has declined. The inventory pressure is not large, and the supply of goods in South and Southwest China is currently tight. Benefiting from the upcoming introduction of a new round of policies to stabilize growth in key industries, industrial products rose mainly on the day. Technically, SH2601 should pay attention to the support near 2,530 and the pressure near 2,630 [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda contract was 2,571 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton; the position of the main caustic soda contract was 110,751 lots, down 8,105 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures was - 13,393 lots, up 2,772 lots; the trading volume of the main caustic soda contract was 279,647 lots, down 59,684 lots. The closing price of the January caustic soda contract was 2,571 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the May caustic soda contract was 2,660 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 845 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 940 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2,640.63 yuan/ton, down 78.13 yuan/ton, and the basis of caustic soda was 70 yuan/ton, down 89 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong and the northwest was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal was 641 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was - 300 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was - 150 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,120 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the spot price of alumina was 2,980 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [3] 3.6 Industry News - From September 5th to September 11th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 83.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8%. As of September 11th, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 356,800 tons (wet tons), a month - on - month decrease of 7.99% and a year - on - year increase of 15.48% [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - SH2509 is expected to trade in the range of 2400 - 2550 yuan/ton in the short - term; SH2601 should pay attention to the support around 2530 yuan/ton and the resistance around 2700 yuan/ton [3] - The price of caustic soda in Shandong may continue the weak trend due to high inventory pressure at liquid caustic soda plants and lack of positive factors on the demand side [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda contract was 2481 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 yuan/ton; the position of the main caustic soda contract was 70,456 lots, a decrease of 3,689 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures was - 3,349 lots; the trading volume of the main caustic soda contract was 105,105 lots, a decrease of 42,520 lots [3] - The closing price of the January caustic soda contract was 2614 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan/ton; the closing price of the May caustic soda contract was 2703 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton [3] Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 890 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - The converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong was 2500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of caustic soda was 19 yuan/ton, an increase of 21 yuan/ton [3] Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - The price of steam coal was 642 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton [3] Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was - 150 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was - 100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton [3] Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,040 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton; the spot price of alumina was 3220 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Industry News - From August 1st to 7th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 85.1%, a month - on - month increase of 1.2% [3] - As of August 7th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in China was 461,700 tons (wet tons), a month - on - month increase of 8.84% and a year - on - year increase of 17.08% [3] Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply side: Last week, there were both shutdown and restarting plants in China, and the caustic soda capacity utilization rate increased by 1.2% month - on - month to 85.1%. This week, there are many planned maintenance plants in the Northwest, East, and North China, which may lead to a slight decline in the caustic soda capacity utilization rate [3] - Demand side: Last week, the alumina operating rate increased by 0.15% month - on - month to 85.73%; the viscose staple fiber operating rate remained stable at 84.97%, and the printing operating rate increased by 0.38% month - on - month to 59.28% [3] Inventory Analysis - Last week, the liquid caustic soda factory inventory increased by 8.84% month - on - month to 461,700 tons [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint - Short - term supply - demand contradiction of caustic soda is not significant, and the spot price fluctuation is expected to be small. SH2509 is expected to show a volatile trend, and technically, attention should be paid to the support around 2450. The impact of chlor - alkali profit on industry operation should be monitored in the future due to continuous subsidies for liquid chlorine in Shandong [3]. 3) Summary by Directory a. Market Data - **Futures Market**: The main contract closing price of caustic soda was 2506 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan; the futures holding volume was 189,077 lots, down 19,374 lots; the net holding volume of the top 20 futures was - 17,942 lots, down 6,033 lots; the futures trading volume was 752,433 lots, down 277,186 lots. The closing price of the January contract was 2592 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan, and the May contract was 2690 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [3]. - **Spot Market**: The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 820 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong was 2562.5 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was 34 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [3]. - **Upstream Situation**: The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong and the Northwest was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal was 639 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [3]. - **Industrial Situation**: The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was - 250 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was - 150 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - **Downstream Situation**: The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 12,980 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the spot price of alumina was 3220 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. b. Industry News - From July 25th to 31st, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 83.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1%. As of July 31st, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 424,200 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 3.87% and a year - on - year increase of 10.9% [3]. c. Viewpoint Summary - **Supply**: Last week, some plants in Ordos, Junzheng, Zhongtai, and Zhongyan shut down, while the plant in Yidongxing restarted. The capacity utilization rate of caustic soda decreased by 0.1% to 83.9%. This week, a plant in Southwest China plans to shut down, and a plant in Northwest China will restart, with little expected change in capacity utilization [3]. - **Demand**: Alumina has good profitability, and its operating rate has rebounded to a neutral level. The operating rate of viscose staple fiber remained stable at 84.97% week - on - week, and the operating rate of printing and dyeing remained stable at 58.9% week - on - week. Currently, there is no planned production cut in the alumina industry, and non - aluminum downstream is in the off - season with weak rigid demand [3]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the inventory of liquid caustic soda factories increased by 3.87% to 424,200 tons [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic caustic soda plant is still in the recovery phase, with few recent shutdown plans, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to maintain an upward trend. The expected production capacity to be put into operation from July to August is relatively high, and the medium - to - long - term supply pressure may increase. [3] - The price of downstream alumina has rebounded, driving an increase in the enthusiasm of enterprises for resuming production, and there is still some room for an increase in the alumina operating rate. The off - season for non - aluminum downstream industries continues, and demand is weak. [3] - In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction of caustic soda in the spot market is not significant, and the price is expected to fluctuate slightly. For futures, the daily K - line of SH2509 should pay attention to the support around 2470 and the resistance around 2700. [3][4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda futures contract is 2613 yuan/ton, the contract closing prices of caustic soda for January and May are 2656 yuan/ton and 2717 yuan/ton respectively. The futures trading volume is 752433 lots, a decrease of 277186 lots compared with the previous period. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 15810 lots, a decrease of 12901 lots compared with the previous period. [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The prices of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong and Jiangsu regions are 830 yuan/ton and 900 yuan/ton respectively, with no change compared with the previous period. The converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong is 2593.75 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis of caustic soda is - 19 yuan/ton, an increase of 29 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream prices of raw salt in Shandong and the Northwest are both 210 yuan/ton, with no change. The price of steam coal is 638 yuan/ton, with no change. [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream prices of liquid chlorine in Shandong and Jiangsu are 100 yuan/ton and - 125 yuan/ton respectively, with an increase of 25 yuan/ton in Jiangsu compared with the previous period. [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 12980 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. The spot price of alumina is 3230 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. [3] 3.6 Industry News - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on July 30, emphasizing the need for macro - policies to continue to exert force and expand high - level opening - up. [3] - Sino - US economic and trade talks were held in Stockholm from July 28 - 29, and both sides will continue to promote the 90 - day extension of the suspended tariffs. [3] - From July 18 - 24, the average capacity utilization rate of caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.0%, a month - on - month increase of 1.4%. [3] - As of July 24, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises' factories was 408,400 tons (wet tons), a month - on - month increase of 6.38% and a year - on - year increase of 4.29%. [3] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - The operating rate of alumina increased by 1.84% to 85.45% last week, with an average profit of 409.4 yuan/ton. The operating rate of viscose staple fiber increased by 0.42% to 84.97% last week, and the operating rate of printing and dyeing remained stable at 58.9%. [3] - The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories increased by 6.38% to 408,400 tons last week. [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - SH2509 shows a volatile and slightly upward trend, closing at 2484 yuan/ton. The supply side has seen the return of previously减产 and shutdown facilities, with the caustic soda capacity utilization rate increasing by 2.2% to 82.6%. On the demand side, last week the alumina operating rate increased by 1.72% to 83.28%, and the average alumina profit is 300.3 yuan/ton. This week, the viscose staple fiber operating rate increased by 6.75% to 84.55%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate remained stable at 58.9%. In terms of inventory, this week the liquid caustic soda factory inventory increased by 2.56% to 38.39 tons, with little inventory pressure. The planned maintenance capacity of caustic soda in July has decreased. Recently, the downstream operating rate of liquid chlorine has increased, and the inverted price of liquid chlorine in Shandong has been alleviated, which has repaired the chlor-alkali profit, opening up the room for the increase of the caustic soda operating rate. The non-aluminum off-season demand is weak, and the downstream mainly purchases on a rigid basis. In the short term, SH2509 is expected to show a volatile trend, and the daily K-line should pay attention to the support around 2420 and the pressure around 2550 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main closing price of caustic soda is 2484 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 18; the futures holding volume is 247,813 lots, with a month-on-month decrease of 11,994; the net holding volume of the top 20 futures is -4,279 lots, with a month-on-month increase of 8,873; the futures trading volume is 489,252 lots, with a month-on-month decrease of 272,960. The closing price of the January contract is 2471 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 20; the closing price of the May contract is 2532 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 19 [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 840 yuan/ton, with no change; in Jiangsu, it is 910 yuan/ton, with no change. The converted price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 2625 yuan/ton, with no change; the basis is 159 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 46 [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 210 yuan/ton, with no change; in the Northwest, it is 220 yuan/ton, with no change. The price of steam coal is 636 yuan/ton, with no change [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is -350 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of 50; in Jiangsu, it is -75 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of 25.5 [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 12,940 yuan/ton, with no change; the spot price of alumina is 3150 yuan/ton, with no change [3]. 3.6 Industry News - From July 11th to 17th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 82.7%, a month-on-month increase of 2.3%. As of July 17th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 383,900 tons (wet tons), a month-on-month increase of 2.56% and a year-on-year increase of 1.78% [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Supply side: Last week, affected by the increase in maintenance devices, the capacity utilization rate in each region mainly decreased, with the national average utilization rate decreasing by 2.0% to 80.5%. The planned maintenance capacity of chlor - alkali in July has decreased. The low profit suppresses the expectation of supply - side improvement in the future [2]. - Demand side: Last week, the alumina开工率 increased by 0.89% to 81.56%, the viscose staple fiber开工率 increased by 3.4% to 75.17%, and the printing and dyeing开工率 decreased by 0.13% to 60.18%. Non - aluminum off - season demand is weak, and downstream purchases are mainly for rigid needs [2]. - Inventory: Last week, the liquid caustic soda factory inventory decreased by 1.58% to 38.42 tons, which is at a moderately high level in the same period [2]. - Price: The price of liquid chlorine is deeply inverted due to the imbalance between supply and demand, which drags down chlor - alkali profits. The chlor - alkali device is in a slight loss state. The purchase price of Shandong alumina plants has been raised, driving up the market price of 32% liquid caustic soda. The SH2509 contract is slightly at a discount, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 2500 yuan/ton technically [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of caustic soda is 2454 yuan/ton, and the contract closing prices of caustic soda in January and May are 2438 yuan/ton and 2487 yuan/ton respectively. The futures trading volume is 687,008 lots, an increase of 38,580 lots, and the futures position is 255,481 lots, an increase of 3,944 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is 1,837 lots, an increase of 16,162 lots [2]. Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong and Jiangsu regions is 810 yuan/ton and 900 yuan/ton respectively. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong region is 2531.25 yuan/ton, and the basis of caustic soda is 77 yuan/ton, a decrease of 46 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong and the Northwest is 210 yuan/ton and 220 yuan/ton respectively, and the price of steam coal is 635 yuan/ton [2]. Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is - 550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu is - 225 yuan/ton [2]. Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13,020 yuan/ton, and the spot price of alumina is 3,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton [2]. Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission predicts that China's GDP scale will be about 140 trillion yuan in 2025. From June 27th to July 3rd, the average capacity utilization rate of China's caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 80.5%, a decrease of 2.0% from the previous period. As of July 3rd, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 384,200 tons (wet tons), a decrease of 1.58% from the previous period and an increase of 2.45% year - on - year [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - SH2509 ended the session in a moderately strong position at 2,513 yuan per ton. The average caustic soda capacity utilization rate before the holiday increased by 1.8% to 83.9%. The domestic alumina operating rate continued to decline; the viscose staple fiber operating rate increased by 2.54% to 79.71%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate remained stable at 60.06%. The liquid caustic soda factory inventory increased by 1.79% to 415,800 tons. In May, the chlor - alkali industry had concentrated maintenance, and the shutdown capacity increased, partially alleviating the industry's supply pressure. The high - cost alumina production facilities in the downstream had both production cuts and new capacity launches, but the profit repair was limited, and the caustic soda consumption demand was difficult to increase. During the National Day, some downstream industries took holidays and stopped work, and the liquid caustic soda inventory faced the pressure of accumulation. There was still support from overseas markets such as Indonesia. For SH2509, pay attention to the support around 2,470 below and the pressure around 2,550 above [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda was 2,513 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month increase of 15; the futures trading volume was 492,543 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 138,843; the futures open interest was 202,503 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 26,287; the net position of the top 20 futures was 115 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 44. The closing price of the January contract was 2,470 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month increase of 11; the closing price of the May contract was 2,400 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month increase of 47 [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 800 yuan per ton, with no month - on - month change; in Jiangsu, it was 930 yuan per ton, with no month - on - month change. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2,500 yuan per ton, with no month - on - month change; the basis of caustic soda was - 13 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 15 [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 225 yuan per ton, with no month - on - month change; in the Northwest, it was 220 yuan per ton, with no month - on - month change. The price of steam coal was 679 yuan per ton, with no month - on - month change [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was - 100 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 200.5; in Jiangsu, it was - 125 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 25 [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,480 yuan per ton, with no month - on - month change; the spot price of alumina was 2,850 yuan per ton, with no month - on - month change [3] 3.6 Industry News - On May 7, at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office, the central bank announced ten measures in three categories, including reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, and cuts in the personal housing provident fund loan interest rate. From April 25th to 30th, the average capacity utilization rate of China's caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 83.9%, a month - on - month increase of 1.8%. As of April 30th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country was 415,800 tons (wet tons), a month - on - month increase of 1.79% [3]