交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-11-20燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 燃料油： 6、预期：低硫燃料油市场整体情绪悲观，充足的库存预计将在今年剩余时间内持续压制市场基本面，而下游船 燃需求未见明显回升迹象。高硫燃料油下游需求总体健康，一直保持稳定趋势，据悉定期合同买家的足额提名量 填满了部分供应商的即期驳船档期，不过总体近期受上游原油地缘担忧转弱加之已部分计提俄罗斯制裁影响，短 期燃油缺乏刺激性上行动力，预计低位运行。FU2601：2470-2530区间运行，LU2601：3150-3220区间运行 1、基本面：贸易消息人士称，由于即期供应充足，低硫燃料油基本面短期内进一步大幅上行的空间有 ...

燃料油日报 | 2025-11-19 俄罗斯燃料油发货量维持偏低水平 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约夜盘收跌1.82%，报2539元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约夜盘收跌1.47%，报3225 元/吨。 策略 高硫方面：短期中性，中期偏空 低硫方面：短期中性，中期偏空 跨品种：前期多LU-FU价差头寸可适当止盈 跨期：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观风险、关税风险、制裁风险、原油价格大幅波动等、发电端需求超预期、欧佩克增产幅度不及预期、船燃需 求超预期 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 原油价格延续弱势震荡态势，短期虽然有宏观与地缘因素的扰动，但中期油市供过于求的预期在逐步兑现，对燃 料油单边价格存在一定压制。就燃料油自身基本面而言，目前处于高低硫强弱格局收敛的阶段，前期偏强的高硫 燃料油基本面边际转松，市场结构调整，但下方支撑因素依然存在。其中，受到乌克兰无人机袭击的影响，俄罗 斯炼厂计划外检修量较高，导致成品油供应收紧。参考船期数据，俄罗斯11月高硫燃料油发货量预计在171万吨， 环比下降18万吨，同比减少63万吨。低硫燃料油方面，由于装置检修的变化，本月尼 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils have no significant changes. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to tighten, while the supply of low - sulfur fuel oil remains relatively abundant. The upstream crude oil price fluctuates, and it is expected that fuel oil will follow the same trend. The FU2601 is expected to trade in the range of 2580 - 2620, and the LU2601 is expected to trade in the range of 3260 - 3300 [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - The fundamentals of fuel oil are neutral. The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure has strengthened slightly, and the Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure due to sufficient short - term supply. The basis shows that the spot is at a premium to the futures. The Singapore fuel oil inventory decreased by 190,000 barrels in the week of November 12, reaching 20.879 million barrels. The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is flat. The high - sulfur main position is short, with short positions decreasing; the low - sulfur main position is long, changing from short to long [3]. 2. Long - Short Focus - **Likely to be Bullish**: Russian fuel oil export restrictions and the cancellation of the US - Russia talks and the sanctions on Russian oil - related enterprises [4]. - **Likely to be Bearish**: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and the upstream crude oil is under pressure [4]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Fundamentals**: The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure has strengthened slightly, and the Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure due to sufficient short - term supply, which is neutral. - **Basis**: The basis of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 11 yuan/ton, and that of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil is 32 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish. - **Inventory**: The Singapore fuel oil inventory in the week of November 12 was 20.879 million barrels, a decrease of 190,000 barrels, which is neutral. - **Market Chart**: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is flat, which is neutral. - **Main Position**: The high - sulfur main position is short, with short positions decreasing, which is bearish; the low - sulfur main position is long, changing from short to long, which is bullish [3]. 4. Spread Data - The report does not provide specific analysis of spread data, only shows the high - and low - sulfur futures spread chart. 5. Inventory Data - The Singapore fuel oil inventory on November 12 was 20.879 million barrels, a decrease of 190,000 barrels compared to the previous period. The historical inventory data from September 3 to November 12 is also provided, showing the inventory changes during this period [3][8].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 燃料油周报 （11.10-11.14） 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 周度观点 2 期现价格 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 周度观点 燃料油周评：上周，原油整体呈现先扬后抑的走势，新加坡燃料油价格窄幅波动为主。从基本面看，低 硫燃料油市场结构走弱，高硫燃料油市场结构持稳，不过供应相对充裕使得价格承压。高硫报收2609元/吨， 周跌3.91%，低硫报收3251元/吨，周跌0.70%。 供应增加，亚洲低硫燃料油市场结构走弱。新加坡预计11月接收来自西方的低硫燃料油套利货约290-300 万吨，由于南美发货量增加，以及此前中东和西非的租船合约。目前亚洲低硫燃料油市场整体情绪依然悲观， 充足的库存预计将在今年剩余时间内持续压制市场基本面，而 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-11-11燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 燃料油： 1、基本面：亚洲低硫燃料油市场结构维持在当前水平，部分支撑在于下游船燃活动的温和回升，但含硫0.5%船 用燃料油的现货价差跌至逾一周最大贴水；亚洲高硫燃料油市场仍受到下游船燃平稳需求的支撑，但11月下半 月装船货品的竞争性报价抑制了现货价差；中性 2、基差：新加坡高硫燃料油363.42美元/吨，基差为-55元/吨，新加坡低硫燃料油为447.83美元/吨，基差为-12 元/吨，现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：新加坡燃料油11月5日当周库存为2106.9万桶，增加14万桶；中性 4、盘面：价格在20日线附近，20日 ...

Group 1: Report Summary - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: Last week, crude oil showed a trend of rising first and then falling, and fuel oil prices also mainly rose first and then fell. Both high - and low - sulfur fuel oil markets were dragged down by sufficient supply, with weak overall trends. High - sulfur fuel oil closed at 2677 yuan/ton, down 2.48% for the week, and low - sulfur fuel oil closed at 3255 yuan/ton, down 0.40% for the week. The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market still faces the dilemma of sufficient immediate supply and sluggish downstream bunker fuel activities, but the current East - West arbitrage economy is basically unfeasible, which may help reduce arbitrage cargoes from Europe in December and relieve the current oversupply situation. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market is still supported by stable downstream bunker fuel demand, but competitive quotes for shipments in the second half of November have suppressed spot spreads. International crude oil prices may fluctuate slightly lower, and fuel oil prices are expected to continue to decline weakly. Operationally, high - sulfur fuel oil should be traded in the 2600 - 2800 range in the short term, and low - sulfur fuel oil in the 3200 - 3350 range in the short term [5] Group 2: Periodic and Spot Price Summary - Futures Price: The previous value of the FU main contract was 2790, and the current value is 2744, a decrease of 46 or 1.66%. The previous value of the LU main contract was 3253, and the current value is 3290, an increase of 37 or 1.12% [6] - Spot Price: The previous value of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil was 465.00, and the current value is 469.00, an increase of 4.00 or 0.86%. The previous value of Zhoushan low - sulfur fuel oil was 477.00, and the current value is 478.00, an increase of 1.00 or 0.21%. The previous value of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil was 364.42, and the current value is 363.42, a decrease of 1.00 or - 0.27%. The previous value of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil was 452.50, and the current value is 449.50, a decrease of 3.00 or - 0.66%. The previous value of Middle East high - sulfur fuel oil was 333.59, and the current value is 334.02, an increase of 0.43 or 0.13%. The previous value of Singapore diesel was 675.32, and the current value is 677.96, an increase of 2.65 or 0.39% [7] Group 3: Fundamental Data Summary - Consumption Data: There are charts showing Singapore fuel oil consumption, Chinese fuel oil consumption, and Shandong fuel oil coking profit margins from 2021 - 2025, but specific numerical summaries are not provided [8][9][10] Group 4: Inventory Data Summary - Singapore Fuel Oil Inventory: On November 5, the inventory was 2106.9 million barrels, an increase of 14 million barrels. There are also inventory data from August 20 to October 29, showing fluctuations in inventory [11] - Inventory Trends: There are descriptions of Singapore inventory seasonal trends and Zhoushan Port fuel oil inventory trends, but specific numerical summaries are not provided [12][13] Group 5: Spread Data Summary - High - and Low - Sulfur Futures Spread: There is a chart showing the high - and low - sulfur futures spread, but specific numerical summaries are not provided [15]

1、基本面：亚洲低硫燃料油市场结构维持在当前水平徘徊。由于现货船货遭遇激进卖盘打压，含硫0.5%船用燃 料油现货贴水在四个交易日以来首次走阔，不过贸易消息人士指出，随着近期东西方套利经济性转弱导致12月 供应收紧，低硫燃料油市场基本面预计将在未来数周获得一定支撑；中性 2、基差：新加坡高硫燃料油363.42美元/吨，基差为-55元/吨，新加坡低硫燃料油为447.83美元/吨，基差为-12 元/吨，现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：新加坡燃料油11月5日当周库存为2106.9万桶，增加14万桶；中性 4、盘面：价格在20日线附近，20日线偏下；偏空 5、主力持仓：高硫主力持仓空单，空减，偏空；低硫主力持仓多单，多增，偏多 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-11-07燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market faces oversupply and weak downstream bunker activities, but the unfeasibility of East - West arbitrage may reduce December European arbitrage cargoes and ease oversupply; the Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market is supported by stable bunker demand, but competitive quotes for November shipments suppress spot spreads [3] - The current situation of Singapore's fuel oil market is overall weak. The FU2601 is expected to trade in the 2750 - 2790 range, and LU2601 in the 3300 - 3340 range [3] - Crude oil is oscillating, with some support from news, but market sentiment is still cautious, and the bunker market lacks support [3] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Singapore fuel oil inventory on the week of October 29 was 20.929 billion barrels, a decrease of 652 million barrels [3][8] - The spot prices of various fuel oils decreased. For example, the price of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil decreased from 476.00 to 469.00 dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.47% [6] - The futures prices of FU and LU decreased. The FU futures price dropped from 2785 to 2769, a decrease of 0.57%; the LU futures price dropped from 3322 to 3315, a decrease of 0.21% [5] 2. Multi - Short Concerns - Bullish factors: Russia extended fuel export restrictions; the cancellation of US - Russia talks and sanctions on Russian oil - related enterprises [4] - Bearish factors: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified [4] - Market drivers: Supply is affected by geopolitical risks, and demand is neutral [4] 3. Fundamental Data - Fundamental situation: The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market has sufficient supply and weak downstream activities; the high - sulfur fuel oil market is supported by stable bunker demand [3] - Basis: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil basis is - 54 yuan/ton, low - sulfur fuel oil basis is - 4 yuan/ton, with spot at a discount to futures [3] - Inventory: Singapore fuel oil inventory decreased in the week of October 29, which is bullish [3] - Disk: Prices are near the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward [3] - Main positions: High - sulfur main positions are short, with short positions increasing; low - sulfur main positions are long, with long positions decreasing [3] 5. Spread Data - The report shows a chart of high - low sulfur futures spreads [11] Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory data from August 20 to October 29 shows fluctuations, with a significant decrease in the week of October 29 [8]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, medium - term bearish [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, medium - term bearish [2] - Cross - variety: Go long on the spread of LU2601 - FU2601 at low prices [2] - Cross - period: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2) Core Viewpoints - After important macro events, crude oil prices are in a volatile state, and the short - term guidance for FU and LU directions is limited. The strength - weakness pattern of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils has shown marginal changes [1]. - For high - sulfur fuel oil, the spot market has loosened, the market structure has adjusted. OPEC's production increase and the decline in power generation terminal demand will drive the growth of Middle - East exports, while the situations in Russia and Iran are uncertain [1]. - For low - sulfur fuel oil, with the restart of the RFCC unit of Dangote refinery, the local supply pressure has eased. Kuwait's November shipments are expected to decline due to the maintenance of Azur refinery's units. The low - sulfur fuel oil market structure has short - term repair conditions but lacks continuous positive drivers [1]. 3) Directory - based Summaries Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 1.42% at 2,790 yuan/ton; the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 1.93% at 3,335 yuan/ton [1]. - Crude oil prices are volatile as the market assesses the impact of sanctions on Russian supply, with limited short - term guidance for FU and LU [1]. - High - sulfur fuel oil spot has become looser, and the market structure has adjusted. OPEC's production increase and lower power - generation demand will boost Middle - East exports, while Russia and Iran's situations are variable [1]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil supply pressure has eased locally with the restart of Dangote refinery's RFCC unit. Kuwait's November shipments are expected to fall due to Azur refinery's unit maintenance, and the market has short - term repair conditions but no continuous positive drivers [1]. Strategy - High - sulfur: Short - term neutral, medium - term bearish [2] - Low - sulfur: Short - term neutral, medium - term bearish [2] - Cross - variety: Go long on the spread of LU2601 - FU2601 at low prices [2] - Cross - period: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] Figures - There are multiple figures showing prices, spreads, and trading volumes of Singapore's high - and low - sulfur fuel oil spot, swaps, and domestic fuel oil futures contracts, with their respective units (e.g., dollars/ton, yuan/ton, hands) [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamental outlook for fuel oil prices is weak, lacking stimulating factors. With the halt in the upward trend of upstream crude oil, fuel oil prices have also declined. Future attention should be paid to the extent of sanctions on Russia and the progress of China - US trade negotiations. The FU2601 contract is expected to trade in the range of 2770 - 2810, and the LU2601 contract in the range of 3200 - 3250 [3]. - The market structure of Asian low - sulfur fuel oil has remained at recent levels. However, sufficient supply is expected to suppress the low - sulfur fuel oil market fundamentals and limit significant upside in the coming weeks. The strengthening of high - sulfur fuel oil refining margins has curbed refinery raw material demand [3]. Summary by Catalog 1. Daily Hints - The FU2601 contract is expected to trade in the range of 2770 - 2810, and the LU2601 contract in the range of 3200 - 3250 [3]. - The market structure of Asian low - sulfur fuel oil has remained at recent levels, but supply may suppress fundamentals. High - sulfur fuel oil refining margins have curbed refinery demand [3]. - The Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil has a price of 386.01 dollars/ton with a basis of - 12 yuan/ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil has a price of 445.85 dollars/ton with a basis of - 2 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot is at par with the futures [3]. - Singapore's fuel oil inventory in the week of October 22 was 2744.9 million barrels, an increase of 509 million barrels [3]. - The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is flat. The high - sulfur main position holds short positions with a decrease in shorts, and the low - sulfur main position holds long positions with a decrease in longs [3]. 2. Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - Bullish factors include the extension of Russia's fuel oil export restrictions and the cancellation of US - Russia talks along with sanctions on Russian oil - related enterprises [4]. - Bearish factors are that the optimism on the demand side remains to be verified [4]. - The market is driven by the resonance of geopolitical risks on the supply side and neutral demand [4]. 3. Fundamental Data - The previous value of the FU main contract futures price was 2839, the current value is 2830, a decrease of 9 with a decline rate of - 0.32%. The previous value of the LU main contract futures price was 3250, the current value is 3264, an increase of 14 with an increase rate of 0.43%. The previous value of the FU basis was - 12, the current value is - 20, a decrease of 7 with a decline rate of - 56.82%. The previous value of the LU basis was 24, the current value is - 55, a decrease of 79 with a decline rate of - 331.81% [5]. - The previous value of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil was 471.00, the current value is 466.00, a decrease of 5.00 with a decline rate of - 1.06%. The previous value of Zhoushan low - sulfur fuel oil was 485.00, the current value is 480.00, a decrease of 5.00 with a decline rate of - 1.03%. The previous value of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil was 386.01, the current value is 382.37, a decrease of 3.64 with a decline rate of - 0.94%. The previous value of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil was 449.50, the current value is 441.46, a decrease of 8.04 with a decline rate of - 1.79%. The previous value of Middle - East high - sulfur fuel oil was 358.80, the current value is 354.63, a decrease of 4.17 with a decline rate of - 1.16%. The previous value of Singapore diesel was 673.74, the current value is 677.44, an increase of 3.70 with an increase rate of 0.55% [6]. 4. Inventory Data - Singapore's fuel oil inventory on October 22 was 2744.9 million barrels, an increase of 509 million barrels compared to the previous period. Historical data shows fluctuations in inventory from August 13 to October 22 [3][8].