甲醇日报 | 2025-11-19 港口表现疲软，现实库存压力大 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤465元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润563元/吨（+8）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线1968元/吨（+8），内蒙北线基差538元/吨（+7），内蒙南线1920元/吨（-40）；山东临沂2140元/吨（+0），鲁 南基差310元/吨（-1）；河南2015元/吨（-5），河南基差185元/吨（-6）；河北2075元/吨（-15），河北基差305元/吨（-16）。 隆众内地工厂库存369250吨（-17160），西北工厂库存205500吨（-27000）；隆众内地工厂待发订单245400吨（+24307）， 西北工厂待发订单116500吨（-8000）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2002元/吨（-10），太仓基差-28元/吨（-11），CFR中国234美元/吨（-5），华东进口价差-36元/ 吨（-4），常州甲醇2230元/吨；广东甲醇2010元/吨（-5），广东基差-20元/吨（-6）。隆众港口总库存1543600吨（+56500）， 江苏港口库存836600吨（+45100），浙江 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The port inventory of methanol remains high, and the expected reduction in arrivals due to previous Iran sanctions has not materialized. The delay in Iran's winter maintenance announcement is the main driver of the methanol price decline. Recently, there are expectations of Iran's plant maintenance, and the market's expectation of the delayed implementation of Iran's winter maintenance has warmed up [3]. - The inventory in the inland region has rebounded again. The mainstream CTO enterprises have started to show purchasing intentions at low prices. The coal - based methanol production rate has further increased in November, and the inland inventory has started to build up from a low level. The demand for inland MTO has decreased, but attention should be paid to the inventory preparation before the commissioning of the second - phase MTO of Lianhong at the end of the year. Overall, the inland region is also in an inventory accumulation cycle, and the degree of support for the port remains to be observed [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - Multiple figures are presented to show methanol basis, including methanol Taicang basis vs. methanol main contract, methanol basis in different regions relative to the main futures, and inter - period spreads such as between methanol 01 and 05, 05 and 09, 09 and 01 futures contracts [7][21][23] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol, the MTO profit in East China (PP&EG type), the import price difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, and price differences between CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, FOB Rotterdam - CFR China [25][26][34] 3. Methanol Production Rate, Inventory - Information on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P production rate (including integrated ones), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol production rate (including integrated ones) is presented through figures [35][37][38] 4. Regional Price Differences - Figures display regional price differences such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. [40][50][53] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production gross profits of Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [51][57] Market News and Important Data Inland Region - Q5500 Ordos steam coal is 465 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol is 560 yuan/ton (+13). Inner Mongolia north - line methanol is 1965 yuan/ton (+13), with a basis of 424 yuan/ton (-14); Inner Mongolia south - line methanol is 1950 yuan/ton (unchanged). Shandong Linyi methanol is 2170 yuan/ton (+10), with a basis of 229 yuan/ton (-16); Henan methanol is 2020 yuan/ton (-10), with a basis of 79 yuan/ton (-36); Hebei methanol is 2075 yuan/ton (-10), with a basis of 194 yuan/ton (-36). Longzhong's inland factory inventory is 386,410 tons (+10,350), and the northwest factory inventory is 232,500 tons (+1,200). Longzhong's inland factory pending orders are 221,093 tons (+5,535), and the northwest factory pending orders are 124,500 tons (+10,900) [1] Port Region - Taicang methanol is 2082 yuan/ton (unchanged), with a basis of - 59 yuan/ton (-26); CFR China is 241 US dollars/ton (-3), and the East China import price difference is - 31 yuan/ton (+2). Changzhou methanol is 2275 yuan/ton; Guangdong methanol is 2107 yuan/ton (+2), with a basis of - 34 yuan/ton (-24). Longzhong's total port inventory is 1,517,100 tons (+10,630), Jiangsu port inventory is 821,500 tons (-2,800), Zhejiang port inventory is 200,000 tons (+27,000), and Guangdong port inventory is 297,000 tons (-7,000). The downstream MTO production rate is 90.19% (-0.24%) [2] Regional Price Differences - The Lubei - Northwest - 280 price difference is - 90 yuan/ton (-13), the Taicang - Inner Mongolia - 550 price difference is - 433 yuan/ton (-13), the Taicang - Lunan - 250 price difference is - 338 yuan/ton (-10); the Lunan - Taicang - 100 price difference is - 12 yuan/ton (+10); the Guangdong - East China - 180 price difference is - 155 yuan/ton (+2); the East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200 price difference is - 283 yuan/ton (+25) [2] Strategy - Unilateral: No strategy - Inter - period: Go long on the spread between MA2601 and MA2605 when it is low - Inter - variety: No strategy [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The port basis of methanol is still weak, with high port inventory pressure. The attitude of methanol warehousing enterprises and downstream towards Iranian ships may be affected by the sanctions on Russian oil by Europe and the United States. There are more short - term temporary overhauls in Iran, but the winter overhaul plan has not been announced. Coal - based methanol production in the inland has increased in November, and inland inventory has started to build up from a low level. The demand from inland MTO has declined, but attention should be paid to the inventory preparation before the commissioning of the second - phase MTO of Lianhong at the end of the year [2][3] Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis, including methanol basis in different regions such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc., and the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., methanol 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01). All data sources are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [7][11][22] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China (PP&EG type), and various import price differences such as Taicang methanol - CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, etc. Data sources are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [26][27][33] III. Methanol Production and Inventory - Figures display the total port inventory of methanol, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated operations), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated operations). Data sources are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [35][36][38] IV. Regional Price Differences - Figures illustrate price differences between different regions, such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. Data sources are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [40][49][51] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production profits of traditional downstream products, including the production profit of formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE isomerization etherification in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan. Data sources are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [50][59]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - On the port side, the port inventory rebounded on Thursday. Geopolitical conflicts have brought risks to Iranian cargoes, and the willingness of mainstream warehouses and downstream enterprises to receive Iranian ships may be affected, but there has been no obvious decrease in arrivals yet. The Marjan in Iran had a temporary technical shutdown, and attention should be paid to the subsequent winter inspection plan [2]. - On the inland side, the coal - based methanol operation rate has significantly increased from the previous bottom, and the inland inventory has continued to build up from a low level. The operation rates of traditional downstream industries such as formaldehyde, acetic acid, and MTBE are low [1][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis, including methanol basis in different regions (Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, Henan, Hebei, Guangdong) against the main futures contract, and the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [6][7][11]. 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China (PP&EG type), and import price differences such as the difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, as well as price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [6][26][34]. 3. Methanol Operation and Inventory - Data shows the total port inventory of methanol, the MTO/P operation rate (including integrated ones), the sample inventory of inland factories, and the operation rate of Chinese methanol (including integrated ones) [6][36][38]. 4. Regional Price Differences - The report provides price differences between different regions, such as the price difference between northern Shandong and the northwest, between East China and Inner Mongolia, between Taicang and Lunan, etc. [6][40][47]. 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures display the production gross profits of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE isomerization etherification in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [6][57][59]. Strategies - For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see. - For inter - period trading, it is advisable to go long on the spread of MA2601 - MA2605 when the spread is low. - For cross - variety trading, it is recommended to short the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when the spread is high [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - At the beginning of the week, the inland methanol price continued to decline. The market focus at the port is still on the issue of Iranian methanol vessels. The port's basis has risen rapidly this week, and the actual port inventory pressure persists. The coal - based methanol operating rate inland has bottomed out and is expected to further increase by the end of October, with inland inventory gradually rebuilding from a low level. Traditional downstream industries have low operating rates, resulting in increased supply and decreased demand, leading to a further decline in inland prices [1][3] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple charts related to methanol basis including methanol Taicang basis and methanol main contract, basis of methanol in different regions relative to the main futures contract, and inter - period spreads such as between methanol 01 and 05, 05 and 09, 09 and 01 futures contracts [6][7][21] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Charts show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, MTO profit in East China, and various import price differences such as Taicang methanol - CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, and FOB Rotterdam - CFR China [6][25][33] 3. Methanol Operation and Inventory - There are charts about methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated) [6][34][35] 4. Regional Price Differences - The report provides charts on regional price differences like the spread between northern Shandong and northwest, Taicang and Inner Mongolia, Taicang and southern Shandong, etc [6][38][47] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Charts display the production gross margins of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [6][51][54] Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see - Inter - period: Go long on the spread between MA2601 and MA2605 when it is low - Cross - variety: Shorten the spread between PP01 and 3MA01 when it is high [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The port inventory accumulation pace has slowed down for the first time. After the restart of the downstream MTO Xingxing, it supported the port demand, and the port inventory remained basically flat this week. However, the subsequent arrival pressure is still high, and the subsequent changes mainly depend on when the Iranian winter inspection plan will be announced [3] - The lowest point of coal - based methanol production has passed, but it will not return to a high level until the second half of the month. The inventory of inland methanol plants is still low, and overall, the inland market is stronger than the port market. The window for port re - flow to the inland is an important variable supporting the lower limit of port prices. The high - start acetic acid production has peaked and declined, and formaldehyde is in a seasonal off - season, waiting for a further bottom - up recovery. Attention should be paid to the decline in the resilience of inland demand [3] Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - Includes figures such as methanol Taicang basis and the main methanol contract, methanol basis in different regions relative to the main futures contract, and the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., methanol 01 - methanol 05, methanol 05 - methanol 09, methanol 09 - methanol 01) [7][22] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Involves figures related to Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit, East China MTO profit (PP&EG type), and import price differences such as Taicang methanol - CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, FOB Rotterdam - CFR China [26][30] 3. Methanol Production and Inventory - Covers figures on total port methanol inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated ones), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated ones) [33][34] 4. Regional Price Differences - Includes figures on price differences such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, Lunan - Taicang - 100, Guangdong - East China - 180, and East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200 [38][45] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Involves figures on production profits of traditional downstream products such as Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [49][54]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The port inventory pressure of methanol remains high, and the deep negative basis is maintained. There is currently a pattern of weak ports and strong inland areas. The port reflow to southern Shandong has opened, and the downside space depends on the inland performance. The coal - based methanol concentrated maintenance period has passed, and the inland supply - demand may weaken marginally. The traditional downstream has seen a decline in pending orders and a drop in the operating rates of MTBE and acetic acid, while the formaldehyde operating rate remains low [1][2] Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis (such as methanol at Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia Northern Line, etc. relative to the main futures contract) and inter - period spreads (such as between different methanol futures contracts like 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01). All data are presented in figures with units of yuan/ton [6][21][23] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures show the Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit, East China MTO profit (PP&EG type), and import spreads such as Taicang methanol - CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, FOB Rotterdam - CFR China. The units are yuan/ton or US dollars/ton [25][26][29] III. Methanol Operation, Inventory - The report provides figures on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated ones), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated ones). The units are tons and percentages respectively [33][34][36] IV. Regional Spreads - Figures display regional spreads such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc., with the unit of yuan/ton [38][45][48] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures present the production gross profits of traditional downstream products like Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [49][54][58]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The expectation of capacity reduction in South Korea's naphtha cracking has led to a rebound in the prices of olefin derivatives, which in turn has driven up the methanol price. However, the current situation at the port remains weak, with port inventories continuing to rise and downstream MTO in the maintenance cycle. The centralized maintenance period for coal - based methanol is gradually over, and the operating rate will increase in late August. This week, the inventory of inland factories has bottomed out and rebounded, while downstream orders have declined. For the downstream, formaldehyde is in a seasonal off - season and is waiting for a further bottom - up recovery [3]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Market News and Important Data - **Inland**: Q5500 Ordos thermal coal is 470 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the production profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia is 655 yuan/ton (unchanged). Inland methanol prices vary by region, with Inner Mongolia North Line at 2070 yuan/ton (unchanged), Inner Mongolia South Line at 2080 yuan/ton (unchanged), Shandong Linyi at 2345 yuan/ton (+11), etc. The inventory of inland factories has increased to 310,793 tons (+15,220), and the order backlog has decreased to 207,370 tons (-11,995) [1]. - **Port**: Taicang methanol is 2305 yuan/ton (+25), CFR China is 259 US dollars/ton (-2). The total port inventory has increased to 1,075,960 tons (+54,160), and the downstream MTO operating rate is 83.12% (-0.77%). There are also various regional price differences [2]. II. Market Analysis The expectation of capacity reduction in South Korea's naphtha cracking has driven up the prices of olefin derivatives and methanol. But the port situation is weak, with rising inventories and MTO in maintenance. The coal - based methanol maintenance period is over, and the operating rate will increase. Inland factory inventories have rebounded, and downstream orders have decreased. Formaldehyde is in a seasonal off - season [3]. III. Strategy For single - side trading, inter - period trading, and cross - variety trading, the recommendation is to wait and see [4]. IV. Figures and Tables by Category - **Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure**: There are figures showing methanol basis in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) and inter - period spreads between different futures contracts (e.g., methanol 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [6][7][22]. - **Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit**: Figures display the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, MTO profit in East China, and import profit (e.g., Taicang methanol - CFR China import spread) [6][26][30]. - **Methanol Operating Rate, Inventory**: Figures show methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate, inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate [6][32][33]. - **Regional Price Differences**: Figures present price differences between different regions, such as Lubei - Northwest, East China - Inner Mongolia, etc. [6][37][45]. - **Traditional Downstream Profits**: Figures show the production profits of traditional downstream products like Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE, and Henan dimethyl ether [6][50][55].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Port remains weak with rapid inventory accumulation this week. Overseas methanol plants are operating at a high level, increasing the arrival pressure. The downstream MTO device, Xingxing, will be shut down for one - month maintenance starting at the end of July. There is a possibility of methanol production reduction in Shandong during the military parade. Inland methanol prices are stronger than those at the port. Inland factory inventory is low, and coal - based methanol production is on the rise, with further recovery expected at the end of August. Some downstream industries like acetic acid are seeing a decline in production, and formaldehyde is in a seasonal off - season [2] Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - Figures show methanol basis in different regions (Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, Henan, Hebei, Guangdong) against the main futures contract, and inter - period spreads between different methanol futures contracts (01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [5][6][10][11][14][22][24] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures display Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit, East China MTO profit (PP&EG type), import spread between Taicang methanol and CFR China, and price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [5][26][30][34] III. Methanol Production and Inventory - Figures present total port inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated plants), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated plants) [5][36][38] IV. Regional Price Differences - Figures show price differences in different regions such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, Lunan - Taicang - 100, Guangdong - East China - 180, and East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200 [5][40][47][50] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures illustrate the production margins of Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [5][51][58] Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see - Inter - period: Do reverse arbitrage on MA09 - 01 inter - period spread when it is high - Cross - variety: Narrow the spread between PP2601 and 3MA2601 when it is high [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamental situation of methanol has not changed significantly, and the basis is weakly consolidating. The port is experiencing inventory accumulation, with the basis continuing to be weak, while the inland is stronger than the port. The overall pattern is that the inland market is more robust [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis and inter - period spreads, including methanol basis in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) and inter - period spreads between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., MA09 - 01) [6][10][23] 3.2 Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures show the profit situation of methanol production (e.g., Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit), MTO profit (e.g., East China MTO profit of PP&EG type), and import profit (e.g., Taicang methanol - CFR China import spread) [25][31] 3.3 Methanol开工, Inventory - Data on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P开工 rate (including integrated units), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol开工 rate (including integrated units) are presented [34][36] 3.4 Regional Spreads - The report provides information on regional price differences, such as the spreads between different regions like Lubei - Northwest, Taicang - Inner Mongolia, and Guangdong - East China [38][49] 3.5 Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures illustrate the production profits of traditional downstream products, including Shandong formaldehyde production profit, Jiangsu acetic acid production profit, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification production profit, and Henan dimethyl ether production profit [54][56] 4. Strategies - **Unilateral**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [3] - **Inter - period**: For the MA09 - 01 inter - period spread, conduct a reverse spread when the spread is high [3] - **Cross - variety**: When the spread is high, reduce the spread between PP2601 and 3MA2601 [3]