交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2025年9月30日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 1、基本面：StoneX:预计25/26年度全球糖市供应过剩277万吨。ISO:预计25/26年度全球食糖供应 缺口为23.1万吨，比之前预计缺口大幅减少。2025年8月底，24/25年度本期制糖全国累计产糖 1116.21万吨；全国累计销糖1000万吨；销糖率89.6%。2025年8月中国进口食糖83万吨，同比增加 6万吨；7月份进口糖浆及预混粉等三项合计15.98万吨，同比减少6.85万吨。偏空。 白糖： 2、基差：柳州现货5890，基差411（01合约），升水期货；偏多。 3、库存：截至8月底24/25榨季工业库 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖周报（9.22-9.26） 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 本周回顾： 利空：白糖全球产量增加，新一年度全球供应过剩。外 糖价格在16美分/磅附近震荡，进口利润窗口打开，进 口冲击加大。 • 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建 议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 | | 日捷古报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 期价 现价变动 地区 进口原糖加工后价(50%关税) 其美 | 现价 | | | ...

南华期货白糖产业周报 当前影响白糖价走势的核心矛盾有以下几点： 1、我们认为近期市场主要交易进口节奏的问题。我们可以看到，近期白糖价格走势和进口节奏呈现了高度的 相关性，后期需要关注配额外进口利润变化以及进口糖浆及预拌粉变化。8月数据看，泰国进口的预混粉又有 增长的苗头，虽然相比去年同期依旧要少很多。 2、国产糖低库存对郑糖价起到支撑作用，但8月的产区销量数据低于预期，广西和云南叠加销量仅为39.11万 吨，远低于去年61万吨。这导致期末库存达到122.22万吨，比去年同期还高了10多万吨。9月销售数据公布 在即，最终销量可能最多也就60多万吨，那么期末库存也将接近60万吨，整体已经无法对糖价的支撑作用效 果就没那么明显。 3、上涨台风"桦加沙"对广东湛江、广西部分地区的甘蔗造成倒伏损害，导致盘面一度出现上涨，但实际看"桦 加沙"影响要小于去年的"摩羯"，因此最终损失可能有限。 3、巴西的利多支撑在逐步减弱。由于巴西在最近的压榨量确实同期高于去年，导致前期积累的利多优势在逐 步蚕食，尽管制糖比相比此前开始下滑，但巴西中南部也即将进入供应淡季，预计整体的减产幅度低于预 期。且26/27榨季预计将出现恢复性增产。 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The report presents a mixed outlook for the sugar market. While there are some bullish factors such as good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, and increased syrup tariffs, there are also bearish factors including expected global sugar supply surplus, downward - trending technical indicators, and import pressure. The main 01 contract of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to have a short - term volatile rebound due to factors like pre - holiday profit - taking by short - sellers and potential damage to sugarcane crops from a typhoon [4][5][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1前日回顾 No information provided in the given content. 3.2每日提示 - **Fundamentals**: StoneX expects a 277 - million - ton global sugar supply surplus in the 25/26 season, while ISO predicts a 231,000 - ton supply gap, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. In August 2025, China produced 11.1621 billion tons of sugar in the 24/25 season, sold 10 billion tons, with a sales rate of 89.6%. China imported 830,000 tons of sugar in August 2025, a 60,000 - ton year - on - year increase, and 159,800 tons of syrup and premixes in July, a 68,500 - ton year - on - year decrease. Overall, this is bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The Liuzhou spot price is 5890, with a basis of 393 for the 01 contract, indicating a premium over the futures, which is bullish [5]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August in the 24/25 season, the industrial inventory was 1.16 million tons, considered neutral [5]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below it, which is bearish [5]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, with an increase in net short positions, and the main trend is unclear, also bearish [5]. - **Expectation**: Before the National Day holiday, after consecutive days of decline in Zhengzhou sugar, some short - sellers took profits and exited. Typhoon "Koinu" affected the sugarcane - growing areas in southern Guangxi, potentially causing yield reduction. The main 01 contract shows a short - term volatile rebound [5]. 3.3今日关注 No information provided in the given content. 3.4基本面数据 - **Supply and Demand Forecast**: Different institutions have varying forecasts for the 25/26 season. ISO predicts a 231,000 - ton supply gap, Czarnikow predicts a 4.7 - million - ton surplus, and StoneX predicts a 1.21 - million - ton surplus [35]. - **Domestic Sugar Production and Consumption**: In 2025, the sugar production is expected to be 11.2 million tons, consumption is 15.9 million tons, and imports are 5 million tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5800 - 6500 yuan per ton [36]. - **Import Cost**: The cost of imported raw sugar after processing and 50% tariff payment varies. For example, in September 2025, with an average ICE raw sugar price of about 15.79 cents per pound from Brazil, the cost was 5454 yuan per ton [38]. 3.5持仓数据 No information provided in the given content.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The ISO predicts a global sugar supply deficit of 231,000 tons in the 25/26 season, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. Conab estimates Brazil's central - southern sugar production in the 25/26 season to be 40.6 million tons, a 3.1% decrease from the previous estimate. As of the end of August 2025, China's cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 11.1621 million tons, with cumulative sales of 10 million tons and a sales rate of 89.6%. In July 2025, China imported 740,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 320,000 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixes was 159,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 68,500 tons [4]. - The basis in Liuzhou is 423 (for the 01 contract), indicating a premium over futures. As of the end of August, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 season was 1.16 million tons. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below it. The main position is bearish, with a reduction in net short positions, and the main trend is unclear. International raw sugar is currently fluctuating around 16.5 cents. The domestic consumption peak season is approaching its end, and sugar imports have increased significantly. The main 01 contract of Zhengzhou sugar futures has a weak rebound and is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5,500 - 5,600 in the short term [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: The ISO forecasts a 231,000 - ton global sugar supply deficit in the 25/26 season, a sharp reduction from the previous prediction. Conab estimates Brazil's central - southern sugar production in the 25/26 season to be 40.6 million tons, down 3.1% from the previous estimate. As of the end of August 2025, China's cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 11.1621 million tons, cumulative sales were 10 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In July 2025, China imported 740,000 tons of sugar, up 320,000 tons year - on - year, and the total import of syrup and premixes was 159,800 tons, down 68,500 tons year - on - year. Overall, it is neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The Liuzhou spot price is 5,970, and the basis is 423 (for the 01 contract), indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 season was 1.16 million tons, which is bullish [4]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below it, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, with a reduction in net short positions, and the main trend is unclear, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: International raw sugar is currently fluctuating around 16.5 cents. The domestic consumption peak season is about to end, and sugar imports have increased significantly. The main 01 contract of Zhengzhou sugar futures has a weak rebound and is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5,500 - 5,600 in the short term [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Supply and Demand Forecasts**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar market. The ISO predicts a 231,000 - ton deficit; Czarnikow predicts a 7.5 - million - ton surplus; Dataro predicts a 1.53 - million - ton surplus; StoneX predicts a 3.04 - million - ton surplus after a downward adjustment; Green Pool estimates a 5.3% increase in global sugar production to 199.1 million tons in the 25/26 season; and the USDA expects a 4.7% year - on - year increase in global sugar production and a 1.4% increase in consumption, resulting in a 11.397 - million - ton surplus [4][8]. - **Domestic Supply and Demand**: In 2025, China's sugar production, sales, and import data show that as of the end of August, the cumulative production in the 24/25 season was 11.1621 million tons, cumulative sales were 10 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In July, 740,000 tons of sugar were imported, a year - on - year increase of 320,000 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixes was 159,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 68,500 tons [4]. - **Sugar Price and Market Conditions**: The international raw sugar price is currently around 16.5 cents. The domestic sugar spot sales average price is around 6,000. The main 01 contract of Zhengzhou sugar futures has a weak rebound and is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5,500 - 5,600 in the short term [4]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant content provided.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The main sugar futures contract 01 rebounded briefly this week. With the approaching end of the consumption peak season and average market sales, cheap imported sugar is impacting prices, making it difficult for futures to rise in the short term. It is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern. - International raw sugar is oscillating around 16 cents, and the domestic and international trends are converging. The domestic futures main contract 01 has support around the 5500 mark. After continuous declines, it is expected to consolidate in the range of 5500 - 5600. - There are both positive and negative factors. Positives include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose. Negatives include increased global sugar production, a global supply surplus in the new year, the opening of the import profit window due to the oscillation of foreign sugar prices around 16 cents per pound, and intensified import impact. [5][6][7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - The main sugar futures contract 01 rebounded briefly this week. The consumption peak season is approaching its end, market sales are average, and cheap imported sugar is impacting prices, making short - term futures price increases difficult. The ISO predicts a global sugar supply shortage of 23.1 tons in the 25/26 season, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. Conab estimates the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 25/26 season to be 4060 tons, a 3.1% decrease from the previous forecast. As of the end of July 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 1116.21 tons, cumulative sugar sales were 954.98 tons, and the sales rate was 85.6%. In July 2025, China imported 74 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 32 tons, and imported 15.98 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 6.85 tons. [5] 3.2 Daily Tips - International raw sugar is oscillating around 16 cents, and the domestic and international trends are converging. The domestic futures main contract 01 has support around the 5500 mark. After continuous declines, it is expected to consolidate in the range of 5500 - 5600. [6] 3.3 Today's Focus - Positive factors: Good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose. - Negative factors: Increased global sugar production, a global supply surplus in the new year, the opening of the import profit window due to the oscillation of foreign sugar prices around 16 cents per pound, and intensified import impact. [7] 3.4 Fundamental Data - Multiple institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply and demand situation. For example, Czarnikow predicts a surplus of 750 tons, Dataro predicts a surplus of 153 tons, StoneX predicts a surplus of 304 tons, Green Pool predicts a 5.3% increase in global sugar production to 1.991 billion tons, and USDA predicts a 4.7% increase in global sugar production and a 1.4% increase in consumption, with a surplus of 1139.7 tons. - In terms of domestic data, as of July 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 1116.21 tons, cumulative sales were 954.98 tons, and the sales rate was 85.6%. In July 2025, China imported 74 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 32 tons, and imported 15.98 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 6.85 tons. [5][9] 3.5 Position Data No position data information is provided in the report.

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2025年9月8日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 白糖： 1、基本面：ISO:预计25/26年度全球食糖供应缺口为23.1万吨，比之前预计缺口大幅减少。Conab： 巴西中南部25/26榨季糖产量预计4060万吨，比之前预估下调3.1%。2025年7月底，24/25年度本期 制糖全国累计产糖1116.21万吨；全国累计销糖954.98万吨；销糖率85.6%。2025年7月中国进口食 糖74万吨，同比增加32万吨；进口糖浆及预混粉等三项合计15.98万吨，同比减少6.85万吨。中性。 2、基差：柳州现货5970，基差447（01合约），升水期货；偏多。 3、库存：截至7月底24/25榨季工 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2025年9月3日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 白糖： 1、基本面：ISO:预计25/26年度全球食糖供应缺口为23.1万吨，比之前预计缺口大幅减少。Conab： 巴西中南部25/26榨季糖产量预计4060万吨，比之前预估下调3.1%。2025年7月底，24/25年度本期 制糖全国累计产糖1116.21万吨；全国累计销糖954.98万吨；销糖率85.6%。2025年7月中国进口食 糖74万吨，同比增加32万吨；进口糖浆及预混粉等三项合计15.98万吨，同比减少6.85万吨。中性。 2、基差：柳州现货5990，基差391（01合约），升水期货；偏多。 3、库存：截至7月 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2025年9月2日 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 白糖： 1、基本面：ISO:预计25/26年度全球食糖供应缺口为23.1万吨，比之前预计缺口大幅减少。Conab： 巴西中南部25/26榨季糖产量预计4060万吨，比之前预估下调3.1%。2025年7月底，24/25年度本期 制糖全国累计产糖1116.21万吨；全国累计销糖954.98万吨；销糖率85.6%。2025年7月中国进口食 糖74万吨，同比增加32万吨；进口糖浆及预混粉等三项合计15.98万吨，同比减少6.85万吨。中性。 2、基差：柳州现货6000，基差391（01合约），升水期货；偏多。 6、预期：随着巴西产量向下调整，全球供需基本面利空有所减弱。郑糖01目前价格接近配额外进 口糖价，除非外糖跌破16美分，否则郑糖进一步下跌空间有限。郑糖01日内5580-5640区间震荡。 3、库存：截至7月底24/25榨季工业库存161万吨；偏多。 4、盘面：20日均线向下，k线在20日均线下方，偏空。 5、主力持仓：持仓偏空，净持 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The main contract of white sugar 01 oscillates and declines. The import of sugar has increased significantly in recent months, and the current price of contract 01 is close to the cost price of out - quota imported sugar. In the short term, Zhengzhou white sugar may oscillate around 5600. Unless the price of foreign sugar falls below 16 cents, there is limited room for further decline in Zhengzhou white sugar [5][9]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review No relevant information provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Conab estimates that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 25/26 sugar season will be 40.6 million tons, a 3.1% decrease from the previous forecast. As of the end of July 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales were 9.5498 million tons; the sales rate was 85.6%. In July 2025, China imported 740,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 320,000 tons year - on - year; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 159,800 tons, a decrease of 68,500 tons year - on - year [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 6010, with a basis of 408 (for contract 01), showing a premium over futures, which is bullish [6]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of July, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 sugar season was 1.61 million tons, which is bullish [6]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [6]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, the net short position is decreasing, the trend of the main force is unclear, and it is bearish [5]. - **Expectation**: The main contract of white sugar 01 oscillates and declines. The import of sugar has increased significantly in recent months, and the current price of contract 01 is close to the cost price of out - quota imported sugar. In the short term, Zhengzhou white sugar may oscillate around 5600. Unless the price of foreign sugar falls below 16 cents, there is limited room for further decline in Zhengzhou white sugar [5][9]. 3.3 Today's Focus No relevant information provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Forecast**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply and demand in the 25/26 season. Green Pool estimates a surplus of 2.7 million tons, USDA estimates a surplus of 11.397 million tons, Czarnikow estimates a surplus of 7.8 million tons, and Datagro estimates a surplus of 2.58 million tons [9][35]. - **Domestic Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: The supply and demand of white sugar in the domestic market has a gap, and the medium - to - long - term gap is decreasing. The average spot sales price of domestic sugar is close to 6000. Since January 2025, the tariff on imported syrup has increased, approaching the out - quota import tariff of raw sugar. From January 1, 2025, the tariff on imported syrup and premixed powder has been adjusted from 12% to 20%, and the adjusted tariff is slightly lower than the out - quota import tariff of raw sugar. Coca - Cola's formula modification is long - term bullish for white sugar [9]. - **Import Situation**: In July 2025, China imported 740,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 320,000 tons year - on - year; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 159,800 tons, a decrease of 68,500 tons year - on - year [4][9]. 3.5 Position Data The position is bearish, the net short position is decreasing, the trend of the main force is unclear, and it is bearish [5].