白糖供需平衡

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大越期货白糖早报-20250827
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 01:56
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2025年8月27日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号:F0283029 投资咨询证号: Z0010442 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 1、基本面:SCA Brasil:巴西中南部25/26榨季糖产量预计3910万吨,同比减少3%。2025年7月底, 24/25年度本期制糖全国累计产糖1116.21万吨;全国累计销糖954.98万吨;销糖率85.6%。2025年 7月中国进口食糖74万吨,同比增加32万吨;进口糖浆及预混粉等三项合计15.98万吨,同比减少 6.85万吨。中性。 5、主力持仓:持仓偏空,净持仓空增,主力趋势不明朗,偏空。 6、预期:白糖主力01短期受压5700,震荡回落。进口糖近几个月大量增加,但目前现货价格相对 坚挺,受进口糖冲击影响 ...
大越期货白糖周报-20250825
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 06:45
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖周报(8.18-8.22) 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号:F0283029 投资咨询证号: Z0010442 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 本周回顾: 本周白糖主力01总体围绕5650-5700区间小幅震荡。进口近期大幅增加,但目前看对现货冲击不大, 现货价格依然坚挺。期货长期贴水现货,已经提前反应利空预期。目前没有重大利空情况下,价 格难有进一步下跌空间。反而缓慢修复利空预期,价格震荡上行,运行至5800的概率增加。 SCA Brasil:巴西中南部25/26榨季糖产量预计3910万吨,同比减少3%。2025年7月底,24/25年度 本期制糖全国累计产糖1116.21万吨;全国累计销糖954.98万吨;销糖率85.6%。2025年7月中国进 口食糖74万吨 ...
白糖周报:中秋备货启动现货小幅反弹-20250819
Zhe Shang Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 11:48
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The SR2601 contract for sugar is expected to be prone to short - term decline but with limited downside space, finding support at the 5500 price level. Globally, the sugar supply - demand remains in a competitive situation. In the 2025/26 season, major producing countries are expected to increase production. In Brazil, the 2025/26 crushing season is in its peak, and with an abundant harvest expected, the market is mainly in a stable operation, though ethanol mixing has raised the price floor, providing short - term support for raw sugar. In China, the production and sales scale is relatively fast, but the third - party inventory situation is complex. With the increase in the arrival of raw sugar in recent months, the supply side remains loose. Terminal consumption has improved to some extent with the Mid - Autumn Festival stockpiling [3]. - It is recommended to conduct interval trading with a high - selling strategy for the SR2601 contract. Attention should be paid to the support level of 5500 yuan per ton, and near this cost, it is advisable to sell the SR2601P5400 put option [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Sugar Price and Market Conditions - **Futures and Spot Prices**: This week, the ICE raw sugar futures price first rose and then fell, with a slight upward shift in the center of gravity. The Zhengzhou sugar futures fluctuated upwards, and the spot price of white sugar first stabilized and then rose. The basis between futures and spot slightly recovered, but the basis value slightly declined. As of August 15, the basis of Zhengzhou sugar 09 was 240 yuan/ton, and that of Zhengzhou sugar 01 was 316 yuan/ton [8][13][14]. - **Price Spread**: The price spreads among different futures contracts, such as the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 spreads, showed certain changes this week. The price spreads between different regions' spot white sugar also had corresponding fluctuations. The spread between starch sugar and white sugar was also presented in the report [8]. 3.2 International Supply - **Brazil**: The 2024/26 sugar - crushing season in Brazil has a fixed output of 40.17 million tons, a decrease of 2.25 million tons compared to the previous period, but still within a historically high - output range. As of the first half of July in the 2025/26 season, the cumulative sugar production was 15.655 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.22%. The production in July showed an increase, and based on the weather in the second half of July and the first half of August, the short - term production is expected to remain at a relatively high level. The 2025/26 season is expected to see an increase in production, with an estimated output of about 41 million tons. As of August 8, the ethanol - to - gasoline ratio in Brazil's São Paulo region was 65.57%, and the ethanol - converted sugar price was about 14.51 cents per pound. As of August 13, the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped at Brazilian ports was 3.3179 million tons, a decrease of 259,800 tons from the previous week [33][34][61]. - **India and Thailand**: India's sugar production in the 2024/25 season is expected to be around 26.1 - 26.2 million tons. The 2025/26 season is expected to see a strong recovery in production, reaching about 34.9 million tons. Thailand's 2024/25 season production reached 10.0418 million tons, and the 2025/26 season is expected to see a slight increase in production [81][86]. - **Global**: The global sugar supply in the 2024/25 season has a marginally tightened loose pattern compared to the previous period. The 2025/26 season is expected to turn to a loose pattern. Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply and demand in the 2025/26 season, with some predicting a supply surplus [96]. 3.3 Domestic Supply - **Production**: The 2024/25 sugar - crushing season in China has ended, with a total output of 11.1621 million tons. Guangxi's output was 6.46 million tons, and Yunnan's was 2.4188 million tons. Other regions also increased production due to the expansion of planting areas [105]. - **Import**: The quota - free import tariff is 50%. In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, and the arrival of sugar continued to increase. It is expected that the import volume will continue to increase significantly in the third quarter. The import of syrup and premixed powder is also under control, with the import of items under tariff code 170290 remaining at a low level, while the import of items under 2106.90.6 increased significantly [116][117][138]. 3.4 Sales and Inventory - **Sales**: As of the end of June 2025, the cumulative sugar sales in China reached 8.9998 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5961 million tons, with a sales rate of 79.73%, 5.42 percentage points faster than the previous year. As of the end of July, the cumulative sugar sales in Guangxi reached 3.4961 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 396,600 tons, with a sales rate of 85.01%, 2.51 percentage points higher than the previous year [150]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of June 2025, the industrial inventory in China was 2.1623 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 417,500 tons. As of the end of July, the industrial inventory in Guangxi was 968,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 113,000 tons, and in Yunnan, it was 467,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 60,600 tons [154][161]. 4. Industrial Chain Operation Suggestions - Sugar mills with inventory worried about price drops can hedge their unsold sugar inventory proportionally by short - selling the SR601 contract at an entry price of 5800 yuan/ton and also sell the SR601P5400 put option [5]. - Traders looking to build inventory and buy sugar at low prices can, according to their future procurement plans, proportionally conduct futures or option hedging on the market. They can buy the SR601C5800 call option and the SR601P5400 put option [5]. - Traders with inventory aiming to sell at high prices can hedge their unsold sugar inventory proportionally by short - selling the SR601 contract at an entry price of 5800 yuan/ton and sell the SR601P5400 put option [5]. - Sugar - using enterprises in need of raw materials worried about price increases can, according to their future procurement plans, proportionally conduct futures or option hedging on the market. They can buy the SR601C5800 call option and the SR601P5400 put option [5]. - Sugar - using enterprises with high raw material inventory worried about price drops can hedge their unsold sugar inventory proportionally by short - selling the SR601 contract at an entry price of 5800 yuan/ton and sell the SR601P5400 put option [5].
大越期货白糖早报-20250818
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-18 02:06
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2025年8月18日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号:F0283029 投资咨询证号: Z0010442 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 1、基本面:巴西中南部:本榨季截至7月底累计产糖1927万吨,同比减少7.8%。2025年7月底, 24/25年度本期制糖全国累计产糖1116.21万吨;全国累计销糖954.98万吨;销糖率85.6%。2025年 6月中国进口食糖42万吨,同比增加39万吨;进口糖浆及预混粉等三项合计11.57万吨,同比减少 10.32万吨。中性。 白糖: 2、基差:柳州现货6040,基差376(01合约),升水期货;偏多。 3、库存:截至7月底24/25榨季工业库存161万吨;偏多。 4、盘面:20日均线走平,k线在20日均线附近,中 ...
大越期货白糖早报-20250813
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 01:51
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2025年8月13日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号:F0283029 投资咨询证号: Z0010442 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 1、基本面:StoneX:25/26年度全球糖市供应过剩下调70万吨,至304万吨。2025年5月底,24/25 年度本期制糖全国累计产糖1116.21万吨;全国累计销糖811.38万吨;销糖率72.69%(去年同期 66.17%)。2025年6月中国进口食糖42万吨,同比增加39万吨;进口糖浆及预混粉等三项合计 11.57万吨,同比减少10.32万吨。中性。 白糖: 2、基差:柳州现货6010,基差402(01合约),升水期货;偏多。 3、库存:截至5月底24/25榨季工业库存304.83万吨;偏多。 4、盘面:20 ...
大越期货白糖周报-20250804
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 03:04
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖周报(7.28-8.1) 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号:F0283029 投资咨询证号: Z0010442 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 本周回顾: 本周随着中美贸易谈判延期,不及市场预期,总体商品持续走弱,白糖短期见顶回落。 StoneX:25/26年度全球糖市供应过剩下调70万吨,至304万吨。2025年5月底,24/25年度本期制 糖全国累计产糖1116.21万吨;全国累计销糖811.38万吨;销糖率72.69%(去年同期66.17%)。 2025年6月中国进口食糖42万吨,同比增加39万吨;进口糖浆及预混粉等三项合计11.57万吨,同 比减少10.32万吨。 09合约临近交割,主力即将换月01合约。消费旺季即将过去,随着外糖持续走低,郑糖也出现震 荡 ...
大越期货白糖早报-20250731
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 02:01
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2025年7月31日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号:F0283029 投资咨询证号: Z0010442 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 | | | | 日捷古报 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 期价 现价 现价变动 地区 进口原糖加工后价(50%关税) | | 墓姜 | 进口价差 | 库存情况 | | SR2509 | 5804 | | 316 | | -43 国储库存约700万吨 | | SR2601 | 5666 | | 454 | | 95 讲口智额194.5万吨 | | SR2605 | 0 5761 柳州 5620 | 6120 | 500 | | 2025年6月中国进口食 ...
大越期货白糖周报-20250728
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-07-28 01:49
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the main sugar contract 09 continued to fluctuate above 5800. As the futures price slightly increased, the basis between futures and spot prices narrowed [4]. - The modification of the cola formula is a long - term positive for sugar. Multiple institutions predict a surplus in the global sugar market in the 25/26 period. For example, Czarnikow predicts a surplus of 750 million tons, and USDA predicts a surplus of 1.1397 billion tons [4][7]. - By the end of May 2025, the cumulative sugar production in China in the 24/25 season was 11.1621 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 8.1138 million tons, with a sales rate of 72.69% (compared to 66.17% in the same period last year). In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 390,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 115,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 103,200 tons [4]. - Domestic sugar is about to be cleared from inventory. During the current peak consumption season, the market sales are good, showing a pattern of strong domestic and weak overseas, and near - term contracts are stronger than far - term contracts. The 09 contract is approaching the delivery month, currently at a discount of about 250. In the next month or so, the spot price may slightly decline, and the futures 09 may rise slightly to complete the basis regression. The 09 contract is expected to trade in the range of 5800 - 6000 [4][7]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review - Not provided in the report 2. Daily Prompt - **Likely positive factors**: Good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and relatively low short - term out - of - quota imports. The US cola changing its formula to use sucrose is also positive [4][5]. - **Likely negative factors**: Global sugar production is increasing, and there will be a surplus in the new season. The overseas sugar price is around 17 cents per pound, and the import profit window is open, increasing import pressure [5]. 3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the report 4. Fundamental Data - **Global supply - demand situation**: In the 25/26 period, the global sugar production is expected to reach 202 million tons (a record - high second), mainly driven by Brazil, India, and Thailand. The global consumption is expected to be 198 million tons, with Asian demand growing by 1.3% and African demand growing at the fastest rate of 2.2%. There will be a surplus of 2.7 million tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 52% - 54%. The global trade volume is expected to be 62 million tons, with Brazil's exports accounting for over 50% and Thailand's exports returning to a high level [34]. - **Domestic supply - demand situation**: By the end of May 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 11.1621 million tons, and the cumulative sales were 8.1138 million tons, with a sales rate of 72.69% (compared to 66.17% in the same period last year). In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 390,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 115,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 103,200 tons [4]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the report
大越期货白糖早报-20250718
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-07-18 02:38
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2025年7月18日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号:F0283029 投资咨询证号: Z0010442 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 白糖: 1、基本面:川普同意可乐配方修改,长期利多白糖。Czarnikow:25/26年度全球糖市供应过剩 750万吨。USDA:预计25/26年度全球食糖产量同比增长4.7%,消费增长1.4%,过剩1139.7万吨。 2025年5月底,24/25年度本期制糖全国累计产糖1116.21万吨;全国累计销糖811.38万吨;销糖率 72.69%(去年同期66.17%)。2025年5月中国进口食糖35万吨,同比增加33万吨;进口糖浆及预混 粉等三项合计6.42万吨,同比减少15.07万吨。中性。 6、预期:国产糖即将清库,7 ...
大越期货白糖早报-20250717
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-07-17 02:34
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic sugar market shows a complex situation with both positive and negative factors. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate around 5800, and the spot price is likely to decline due to the approaching clearance of domestic sugar stocks and increased imports in July [6][10]. - The global sugar market is shifting from shortage to surplus in the 25/26 season, but there are differences in institutional forecasts [37][40]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Czarnikow predicts a 750 - million - ton surplus in the global sugar market in the 25/26 season, and USDA expects a 4.7% increase in global sugar production and a 1.4% increase in consumption, resulting in a 1.1397 - billion - ton surplus. As of the end of May 2025, China's cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 11.1621 million tons, cumulative sugar sales were 8.1138 million tons, and the sales rate was 72.69%. In May 2025, China imported 350,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 330,000 tons, and imported 64,200 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 150,700 tons. This is a bearish factor [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 6120, and the basis for the 09 contract is 312, indicating a premium over the futures price, which is a bullish factor [7]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of May, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season was 3.0483 million tons, which is a bullish factor [7]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is a bullish factor [7]. - **Main Position**: The net short position is decreasing, but the main trend is unclear, which is a bearish factor [7]. - **Leverage**: Positive factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and short - term low out - of - quota imports. Negative factors include increased global sugar production, a surplus in the new season, the international sugar price falling below 17 cents per pound, and an open import profit window [8]. 3.3 Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Sugar Supply - Demand Balance in 25/26**: The global production is 202 million tons, consumption is 198 million tons, with a surplus of 2.7 million tons. The inventory - to - consumption ratio is 52% - 54%, and the global trade volume is 62 million tons [37]. - **Institutional Forecasts in the Past 3 Months**: USDA predicts a surplus of 1.1397 million tons (doubling year - on - year), Datagro predicts a surplus of 258,000 tons, ISO predicts a possible surplus in the 25/26 season after a shortage in the 24/25 season, and StoneX predicts a global production increase of 3.3 million tons and a surplus of 430,000 tons [40]. - **China's Sugar Supply - Demand Balance**: In the 25/26 season, the sugar - cane planting area is 1.23 million hectares, beet planting area is 210,000 hectares, sugar production is 11.2 million tons, imports are 5 million tons, consumption is 15.9 million tons, and the balance change is 120,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be between 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be between 5800 - 6500 yuan per ton [42]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant content provided.