估值建模，是金融行业必备技能， 无论在一级（股权）、一级半（定增）、二级（IPO、并购重组）领 域，重要性都不用多言。 然而，目前市场上流传的估值建模体系在实战中，往往存在诸多问题： 1、 逻辑问题 ——表格数据超多，而缺少逻辑直观展示，做表格的研究员能看懂，而看表格的公司领 导往往一头雾水； 2、 估值方法搭配问题 ——DCF模型，和PE法、PB法、EV/EBITDA法、PS法、P/GMV、P/MAU、终 点估值法等各种方法，得出的结果可能大相径庭，这些方法该如何选择搭配、有机融合？ 3、 假设缺陷问题 ——DCF计算过程往往假设科目过多、甚至一些假设是拍脑袋得出，如何对各科 目，做出更加有理有据的假设？ 针对这些深入影响估值判断与决策沟通的关键难点， 梧桐课堂 特联合并购优塾，于 2025年7月19-20 日 在 上海 ，举办 《DCF现金流贴现-建模技能速成指南》 线下培训。 主讲嘉宾 ● 注册会计师、注册税务师 ● 4年审计经验、5年投研经验及估值建模经验 ● 曾为多家不同行业的公司进行财务建模，涉及家电行业（美XX、格XX、老XX）、互联网行业 （腾XX、阿XX、网XX等）、保险行业（中XX、中XX ...

HilleVax, Inc. (HLVX) appears an attractive pick, as it has been recently upgraded to a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). This upgrade primarily reflects an upward trend in earnings estimates, which is one of the most powerful forces impacting stock prices.The sole determinant of the Zacks rating is a company's changing earnings picture. The Zacks Consensus Estimate -- the consensus of EPS estimates from the sell-side analysts covering the stock -- for the current and following years is tracked by the system.Indi ...

Investors might want to bet on Eventbrite (EB) , as it has been recently upgraded to a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). This upgrade is essentially a reflection of an upward trend in earnings estimates -- one of the most powerful forces impacting stock prices.A company's changing earnings picture is at the core of the Zacks rating. The system tracks the Zacks Consensus Estimate -- the consensus measure of EPS estimates from the sell-side analysts covering the stock -- for the current and following years.Since a changin ...

When deciding whether to buy, sell, or hold a stock, investors often rely on analyst recommendations. Media reports about rating changes by these brokerage-firm-employed (or sell-side) analysts often influence a stock's price, but are they really important?Let's take a look at what these Wall Street heavyweights have to say about AudioEye (AEYE) before we discuss the reliability of brokerage recommendations and how to use them to your advantage.AudioEye currently has an average brokerage recommendation (ABR ...

The upcoming report from Alcoa (AA) is expected to reveal quarterly earnings of $0.30 per share, indicating an increase of 87.5% compared to the year-ago period. Analysts forecast revenues of $2.91 billion, representing an increase of 0.3% year over year.The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 4.8% higher over the last 30 days to the current level. This reflects how the analysts covering the stock have collectively reevaluated their initial estimates during this timeframe.Before a compan ...

随着美国股市攀升至新的纪录高位，一个潜在的不祥信号正在浮现：市场上的卖家正变得越来越稀少。 最新动态显示，标普500指数在过去九个交易日中创下了五次历史新高，市场情绪异常高涨。然而，据Thrasher Analytics汇编的数据，过去一个 月，下跌股票的交易量平均仅占美国交易所总成交量的42%，这是自2020年以来的最低水平。 这一成交量信号的影响不容忽视。该数据分析公司联合创始人Andrew Thrasher指出，历史上，当该指标触及如此低的水平时，往往预示着市场的 回调。数据显示，在2020年、2019年和2016年出现类似情况后的三次实例中，标普500指数均出现了至少5%的下跌。 与此同时，市场的另一个矛盾信号来自波动率指数。芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数（VIX）周四跌至2月底以来的最低水平，而衡量美国国债预期 波动性的ICE BofA MOVE指数也跌至近三年半低点。有策略师认为，这并非市场自满，而是投资者已经消化了包括贸易争端和经济增长担忧在内 的"已知未知"风险。 尽管历史数据显示该信号出现后市场可能面临5%或更多的跌幅，但Thrasher认为，本次回调可能相对"温和"。他表示： "我预计不会出现 ...

中金公司 景气跃迁：量化视角下的盈利预测与"预期差" 挖掘 20250710 摘要 量化景气投资侧重广度，通过预测股票利润增长排名而非具体数值，以 实现投资收益。理想化测试表明，准确预测 ROE 变化并持仓排名靠前的 股票能带来超额收益，验证了该方法的可行性。 基于财务信息，当期业绩高增长的股票有较高概率延续高增长，但存在 业绩变脸风险。通过引入加速度概念，即增速的变化，可以优化模型， 提高预测准确性并降低风险。 二次趋势外推模型通过考虑利润增速和加速度，在预测胜率（72%）和 假阳性率（13%）方面均优于线性外推和分析师一致预期，显著改善了 盈利预测效果。 "成长趋势共振选股策略"结合优化后的盈利预测模型、分析师预期、估 值和现金流等因子，选取约 30 支股票，自 2009 年回测以来表现优异， 并在样本外跟踪中持续实现超额收益。 引入机器学习方法，特别是 XGBoost 和 LightGBM 等树模型，能处理 更多维度数据并捕捉非线性关系，显著提升盈利预测的准确性，胜率可 达 85%，假阳性率降至 4.7%。 Q&A 景气型投资的传统思路是什么？ 景气型投资是一种主流的机构化投资思路，传统上更多依赖于基本 ...

Ventyx Biosciences, Inc. (VTYX) could be a solid choice for investors given its recent upgrade to a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). This upgrade primarily reflects an upward trend in earnings estimates, which is one of the most powerful forces impacting stock prices.The sole determinant of the Zacks rating is a company's changing earnings picture. The Zacks Consensus Estimate -- the consensus of EPS estimates from the sell-side analysts covering the stock -- for the current and following years is tracked by the ...

Watts Water (WTS) could be a solid addition to your portfolio given its recent upgrade to a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). This rating change essentially reflects an upward trend in earnings estimates -- one of the most powerful forces impacting stock prices.The sole determinant of the Zacks rating is a company's changing earnings picture. The Zacks Consensus Estimate -- the consensus of EPS estimates from the sell-side analysts covering the stock -- for the current and following years is tracked by the system ...

Investors might want to bet on Adial Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ADIL) , as it has been recently upgraded to a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). This rating change essentially reflects an upward trend in earnings estimates -- one of the most powerful forces impacting stock prices.A company's changing earnings picture is at the core of the Zacks rating. The system tracks the Zacks Consensus Estimate -- the consensus measure of EPS estimates from the sell-side analysts covering the stock -- for the current and following ...