联合研究丨组合推荐 [Table_Title] 金融制造行业 10 月投资观点及金股推荐 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 长江金融行业（地产、非银、银行）和制造行业（电新、机械、军工、轻工、环保）2025 年 10 月投资观点及金股推荐。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 邬博华 于博 赵智勇 SAC：S0490514040001 SAC：S0490520090001 SAC：S0490517110001 SFC：BQK482 SFC：BUX667 SFC：BRP550 王贺嘉 蔡方羿 徐科 SAC：S0490520110004 SAC：S0490516060001 SAC：S0490517090001 SFC：BUX462 SFC：BUV463 SFC：BUV415 刘义 吴一凡 马祥云 SAC：S0490520040001 SAC：S0490519080007 SAC：S0490521120002 SFC：BUV416 SFC：BUV596 SFC：BUT916 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / ...

Core Viewpoint - The "Moonlit Ping Shan Journey" event, held in Shenzhen's Ping Shan District, successfully integrates cultural significance with consumer vitality, showcasing the district's new cultural tourism pulse [1][3][5]. Group 1: Event Overview - The event was launched on September 30, featuring thousands of citizens gathering to celebrate the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival [1]. - Activities included a themed song contest and a talent competition, highlighting community participation and cultural engagement [3]. Group 2: Community Engagement - The talent competition encouraged ordinary residents to perform, transforming them from spectators to participants, reflecting a deeper evolution of community culture [3]. - The event aims to return the celebration to the masses, promoting a shift from merely organizing events to building a sustainable cultural ecosystem [3]. Group 3: Consumer Experience - The 8th Warehouse Outlet played a crucial role in connecting festive atmosphere with retail, attracting crowds with exclusive discounts on quality goods [5]. - The market area featured unique, interactive stalls that fostered social connections and cultural exchange, creating a new consumer landscape beyond standardized commerce [5]. Group 4: Brand Development - The event is designed to create a complete festive experience, allowing citizens to transition from cultural appreciation to lifestyle consumption [7]. - "Moonlit Ping Shan Journey" is evolving into a cultural brand for the district, enriching residents' spiritual lives while stimulating commercial activity [7].

Core Points - The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Commerce issued a notification on September 30 to launch pilot projects for new consumption formats, models, and scenarios in approximately 50 cities across the country, with a funding support of up to 400 million yuan per city based on city size [1][2] Funding Support - The central government will provide tiered financial support based on city size: 400 million yuan for super-large cities, 300 million yuan for large cities, and 200 million yuan for other cities, with funds distributed in two batches [2][3] Focus Areas for Innovation - The policy emphasizes supply-side innovation to enhance the consumption market through three main dimensions: 1. Establishing a comprehensive service system for new product launches, including the creation of launch centers and platforms for various sectors [3] 2. Promoting diverse service consumption scenarios, including the development of cultural, health, and entertainment consumption areas, and enhancing night-time economy [3][4] 3. Supporting collaborations between quality consumption resources and well-known intellectual properties (IPs) to create innovative consumption experiences [4] Economic Impact - The pilot projects aim to stimulate employment and drive industry innovation by focusing on new consumption formats and enhancing service sectors such as retail, hospitality, and cultural entertainment, thereby creating more job opportunities [5] Evaluation Criteria - Cities interested in applying for the pilot program will be evaluated based on their market construction, business environment, and potential for consumption market development, with strict regulations on the use of funds to prevent misuse [7]

Core Insights - Shenzhen is a leading city in China for high-end women's clothing brands, jewelry industry output, and mid-to-high-end eyewear production, with significant market shares and a strong presence of top companies in various sectors [1][2] Group 1: Traditional Industry Development - Shenzhen's government is promoting the optimization and upgrading of traditional industries, which are crucial for economic growth and consumer welfare [1] - The city aims to increase the total scale of traditional industries to over 700 billion yuan within three years through 12 policy measures [1][2] Group 2: Policy Measures - The first measure focuses on optimizing the industrial policy system to support the growth of companies in sectors like clothing, jewelry, furniture, eyewear, watches, and leather [1][2] - The second measure emphasizes the establishment of investment funds to support mergers and acquisitions in traditional industries [1][2] Group 3: Technological Advancements - The initiative includes accelerating core technology breakthroughs in key materials and components that hinder high-quality development in traditional industries [2] - Embracing artificial intelligence is a priority, with plans to integrate AI into various traditional sectors such as home appliances and fitness equipment [2] Group 4: Digital Transformation - The government plans to utilize special funds to assist traditional industries in their digital transformation, targeting over 100 companies for this initiative within three years [2] - Additional measures include promoting high-quality products, enhancing the branding of Shenzhen's traditional industries, and organizing high-profile exhibitions to set industry trends [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights a significant increase in consumer spending during the upcoming National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, with various sectors experiencing substantial growth in sales and orders [1][4][5] - The group buying sales for clothing and home goods have doubled, with year-on-year increases of 198% and 152% respectively, indicating a strong demand for quality consumption [4][5] - The accommodation sector, particularly in lower-tier cities, has seen a 47% increase in orders, showcasing the vitality of the holiday economy in these regions [5][6] Group 2 - Local cuisine sales have surged, with overall group buying sales for regional dishes increasing by 45%, and specific cuisines like Yunnan-Guizhou cuisine seeing a remarkable 102% growth [2][4] - The demand for outdoor leisure activities, such as camping, has risen by 44%, while cultural experiences like traditional makeup services have grown by 49% [4][6] - Major cities like Shanghai, Zhengzhou, and Beijing are leading in merchant order volumes, indicating a robust online-to-offline consumption trend [7]

Group 1: Economic Overview - The UAE is the second-largest economy in the Gulf region, leveraging its oil and gas resources along with its trade hub advantages to accelerate economic diversification [1][2] - As of Q4 2024, the oil sector is projected to account for 20% of the UAE's GDP, indicating a strong reliance on energy resources while the government pushes for economic diversification [2][3] Group 2: Economic Transformation - The UAE has significantly reduced its dependence on oil, with industrial, construction, real estate, and financial services sectors showing comprehensive development [3] - The service sector has increasingly contributed to economic growth, with domestic demand, private consumption, and fixed capital formation becoming key drivers [3] Group 3: Demographics and Labor Market - The UAE has the highest percentage of foreign immigrants in the Middle East at 88%, with a well-educated labor force and high labor participation rates, supporting industrial transformation and domestic market expansion [4] - The country’s favorable demographic structure and inclusive business environment attract international talent and capital inflows [4] Group 4: Trade Relations with China - The UAE is a significant energy supplier to China and the largest export market in the Middle East, with increasing trade cooperation, particularly in machinery, automobiles, and home goods [5] - The relationship is evolving from traditional oil purchases to include clean energy and new economic collaborations, reflecting a shift in Chinese enterprises' overseas expansion strategies [5]

Group 1: Fixed Asset Investment in Jiangsu - Fixed asset investment in Jiangsu province decreased by 7.8% year-on-year from January to August [1] - Infrastructure investment showed growth, increasing by 2.5% year-on-year, contributing 0.4 percentage points to overall investment growth [1] - Large-scale infrastructure projects (over 1 billion) saw a 6.5% increase in investment, driving infrastructure growth by 3.9 percentage points [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - The electricity, heat production, and supply sector grew by 34.2%, while railway transportation and water transportation sectors increased by 17.4% and 19.3%, respectively [1] - The manufacturing sector faced challenges, with investment declining by 4.3% year-on-year, although 14 out of 31 major industries experienced growth [1] - Notable growth in automotive manufacturing (13.5%), textile industry (29.7%), and rubber and plastic products (3.9%) [1] Group 3: Real Estate Market - Real estate development investment in Jiangsu decreased by 18.2% year-on-year from January to August [1] - The sales area of commercial housing also fell by 7.6% year-on-year, with the decline accelerating by 2.4 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] Group 4: Equipment Investment and Consumer Spending - Investment in equipment and tools increased by 4.1% year-on-year, accounting for 19.3% of total investment, up by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [2] - The retail sales of social consumer goods grew by 4.1% year-on-year, with significant growth in the wholesale and retail sector (33.4%) and information technology services (43.8%) [2] - In August, retail sales of major goods under the "old for new" policy increased by 2.2%, contributing 0.9 percentage points to overall retail growth [2]

Core Insights - The report focuses on the macroeconomic environment, endowment characteristics, industrial structure of the UAE, and its comparative position in the Middle East, particularly in relation to China and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) [1][2] Economic Overview - The UAE has a strategic geographical location and a stable political environment, contributing to its role as a major trade and logistics hub in the Middle East [1] - The UAE's economy is significantly supported by its oil and gas resources, ranking sixth and seventh globally in reserves, respectively. As of Q4 2024, the oil sector accounts for 20% of the UAE's GDP, making it the second-largest economy in the Gulf region and one of the highest per capita GDPs worldwide [2][3] Economic Diversification - Recent years have seen the UAE actively pursuing economic transformation, resulting in a notable increase in the share of non-oil sectors. The service industry has become a significant contributor to economic growth, with domestic demand and private consumption driving this expansion [3] - The UAE has established itself as a key commercial and financial logistics center in the Gulf, with a competitive business environment and rapid development in re-export trade and financial services [3] Demographics and Consumption - The UAE has a favorable demographic structure, with a high percentage of foreign immigrants (88%) and a well-educated workforce, which supports industrial transformation and domestic market expansion [4] - The UAE's consumption patterns reflect a coexistence of high income and inequality, but ongoing urbanization and economic diversification are expected to further expand the non-oil economy and stimulate consumer market growth [4] Trade Relations with China - The UAE is a crucial energy supplier to China and the largest export market in the Middle East. Recent years have seen strengthened trade cooperation, with a growing preference for importing machinery, automobiles, and home goods from China [4] - The energy sector remains a cornerstone of UAE-China relations, with a shift from traditional oil purchases to clean energy collaborations and an expansion into new economic and digital infrastructure projects [4]

博览会期间，一系列精彩纷呈的文艺演出轮番上演，为盛会注入了无限的活力与艺术气息。这些演出不 仅是一场视听盛宴，更是一个开放包容的群众大舞台，极大地丰富了广大市民的精神文化生活，让每一 位亲临现场的人都能沉浸其中，感受到浓厚的艺术氛围和喜悦的节日气氛，真正实现了文化乐民、文化 惠民的宗旨。 本届博览会亮点纷呈：社区超市专区首次亮相，让市民足不出户便能选购优质生活好物；汽车美容全新 登场，吸引大量观众驻足体验；此外还涵盖义诊、非遗展示等多元内容，全方位满足市民多样化的消费 需求。活动不仅搭建了高效的产需对接平台，进一步活跃了消费市场，也有力推动了县域商业体系提质 升级，为提振全县消费活力注入了强劲动力。 此次博览会规模盛大，共设立家电、家居、汽车、电动车、农副产品、非遗文创、电商品牌等多主题展 区，吸引县内外超过200家优质企业参展，集中展示各类名优特新产品。 活动增设夜间消费时段，众多摊位延至晚间持续营业，结合现场灯光与氛围布置，打造沉浸式夜市体 验，极大丰富了市民的消费选择。同时，"e品好郓"主播在现场进行直播，通过线上平台全方位展示展 销盛况，让未能到场的群众也能"云"享优惠、线上下单，有效扩大了活动影响力 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the ongoing acquisition talks between Chinese e-commerce giant JD.com and UK retailer Sainsbury's brand Argos, which could lead to one of the largest cross-border mergers in the retail sector, significantly impacting the global retail landscape [1][7]. Group 2 - Argos operates over 800 physical stores, covering more than 90% of the UK's densely populated areas, and maintains a compound annual growth rate of 12% through its unique "inventory as showroom" model [3]. - The acquisition aligns with JD.com's "boundaryless retail" strategy, as Argos's logistics network could reduce JD's delivery time in Europe from an average of 3 days to next-day delivery [3]. - The complementary nature of Argos's core categories, such as home and 3C products, with JD's strengths presents strategic value for the acquisition [3]. Group 3 - Cultural differences, operational integration challenges, and consumer behavior discrepancies pose significant hurdles for the merger, necessitating a "dual brand, dual system" transition plan post-acquisition [5]. - If successful, the acquisition could lead to technological upgrades in Argos stores, enhance JD's international retail brand experience, and serve as a benchmark for the integration of traditional and digital retail [5]. Group 4 - The negotiation has entered the due diligence phase, with three major uncertainties: Sainsbury's acceptance of JD's management retention clause, potential intervention by the UK's Competition and Markets Authority (CMA), and JD's ability to complete system integration within 12 months [7]. - The estimated transaction value is projected to be in the range of £2.5-3 billion, surpassing Amazon's previous record acquisition of Whole Foods at $13.7 billion [7]. - This cross-border merger reflects the restructuring trend of the global retail supply chain in the post-pandemic era, indicating a deepening integration of the UK and Chinese retail markets [7].