证券研究报告 2026 年 3 月 2 日 星期一 【A 股市场大势研判】 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 后市展望： 周五，A 股 2 月收官，沪指月线斩获 3 连阳。三大指数开盘集体低开，沪指低开 0.43%， 深成指低开 0.89%，创业板指低开 1.23%。随后指数震荡。截至午盘收盘，三大指数震荡 调整，沪指再度翻绿，创业板指跌超 1%。盘面上，算力租赁概念集体爆发；有色金属板 块反复活跃；AI 编程概念走强；太空光伏概念震荡反弹。午后，指数震荡上行，最终收 盘三大指数涨跌不一。总体上个股涨多跌少，钢铁、煤炭、有色金属、公用事业和农林牧 渔等行业表现靠前；建筑材料、通信、电子、汽车和家用电器等行业表现靠后。概念指数 方面，金属铅、金属锌、小金属概念、金属铜和金属钴等板块表现靠前；国家大基金持股、 PCB 概念、中芯国际概念、存储芯片和先进封装等板块表现靠后。 值得关注的是，为促进外汇市场发展，支持企业管理好汇率风险，中国人民银行决定 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 1 A 股 ...

2025 年整体经营层面压力较大，核心原因在于化工行业周期下行叠加外部不 确定性，上半年受中美贸易摩擦及地缘政治冲突等影响，客户对未来生产节奏 的不确定性上升，带来需求端明显承压；最困难阶段出租率一度约在 50%左右。 2025 年下半年出租率较上半年边际改善，三、四季度相比二季度出现环比提 升；临近 2025 年年末，尤其是 12 月底，业务情况进一步环比略有改善，主 要由于化工企业在 2025 年四季度普遍减亏、部分实现盈利后，需求改善向仓 储端传导。进入 2026 年一季度，尤其 1—2 月出租率环比继续改善，整体判 断偏乐观。若后续化工行情持续走强或稳步上行，全年业绩表现存在向好可能； 如行情再度波动，将根据实际情况及时沟通。 可转债处置以促转股为优先方向，同时准备到期偿还的现金流安排。公 司具备可转债到期兑付能力。设立子公司"红川智算"，初期或开展算 力租赁业务，最终定位是反哺主业，提升物流效率。 公司现金流表现良好，分红态度积极。2025 年经营性现金流预计约 7 亿元，扣除资本开支和财务费用后，自由现金流约 4 亿元，可用于分红、 回购或改善资产负债表。后续希望向高股息、高红利方向推进。 宏川智 ...

玻璃玻纤低开低走陷入调整，截止午盘下跌3.17%，其中国际复材、宏和科技等股跌停活跌幅在10%上 方。电子布概念持续调整，其中宏和科技跌停。元件、PCB、造纸等行业板块紧随其后。 消息面：节后钨原料价格持续飙升，钨粉已突破1800元/公斤。华为云码道代码智能体公测版2月26日发 布，覆盖代码生成等AI编程技术。中国商业航天企业代表蓝箭航天宣布，我国重复使用火箭朱雀三号 计划今年第二季度再次开展回收试验。 欢迎您在评论中分享自己的看法，大家一起学习和讨论。 冲高回落，截止午盘三大指数均回到中轴下方，其中沪指下跌0.17%，深成指下跌0.68%，创业板指下 跌1.46%。两市合计超2900只个股下跌，合计成交额1.59万亿。 算力租赁概念集体爆发，其中华胜天成5天3板，拓维信息、利通电子、城地香江封涨停。有色金属板块 反复活跃，其中章源钨业7天5板，翔鹭钨业、中稀有色涨停。AI编程概念走强，其中金现代、普元信 息双双20cm涨停。太空光伏概念震荡反弹，其中钧达股份涨停。 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. and Iran are on the brink of conflict, with heightened tensions following failed negotiations and threats from Iranian leadership regarding uranium enrichment activities [1] - If a military conflict occurs, it could disrupt oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, significantly impacting international oil prices and causing instability in the Middle East [1] - A potential quick conflict may have a limited impact on the A-share market, while a full-scale war could have deeper implications [1] Group 2 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) held a meeting with eight foreign investment institutions to discuss investment opportunities [2] - The focus is on the "14th Five-Year Plan," which aims to develop six future industries, reform the investment and financing system, and support differentiated development for foreign investments [3] - The overall strategy emphasizes prioritizing technology, future industries, IPO reforms, and attracting foreign capital [4] Group 3 - The small metals sector has seen explosive growth, with tungsten prices rising by 66% and ammonium paratungstate reaching a historical high of 1.1 million yuan per ton [5] - The U.S. plans to utilize AI models to set reference prices for key minerals, increasing market attention on strategic metals like germanium, gallium, antimony, and tungsten [5] - The surge in small metals prices has also positively impacted related chemical sectors, such as phosphorus chemicals and TDI [5] Group 4 - The demand for computing power in China has surged, with domestic large model token usage exceeding that of the U.S. for several weeks, highlighting rapid growth in AI inference demand [6] - European cloud service providers are entering a price increase cycle, with some services seeing price hikes of up to 38%, further driving the demand for domestic computing power [6] - The overall industry is entering a "full-chain inflation" cycle, with high certainty in performance for sectors benefiting from tight supply and demand [7] Group 5 - The commercial space industry is approaching a peak launch period, with multiple reusable rockets set to launch in March, supported by ongoing development of the Hainan commercial space launch site [7] - Over 20 provinces in China have outlined plans for the commercial space industry, with increasing capital inflow and record financing in the private rocket sector [7] - The space photovoltaic sector is also showing signs of recovery, closely linked to the expansion of related overseas companies [7]

有色板块集体走强，章源钨业、翔鹭钨业等多股涨停。稀土永磁板块拉升，中稀有色涨停，包钢股份接近涨停。黄金股拉升，湖南黄金涨停。算力租赁概 念活跃，城地香江、利通电子等涨停。 稀土 板 HY0240501 3011.95 +180.15 +6.36% 已收盘 02-27 15:00:01 小金属 +7.57% > 今开 3015.37 量 480.29万 2840.31 最高 昨收 2831.80 를低 269.17亿 2840.31 额 上涨 下跌 平盘 5 0 0 日K 月K 分时 王日 間K 更多, (0) 均价:2955.73 最新:3011.95 +180.15 +6.36% 3015.37 6,48% 2831.80 0.00% -6.48% 2648.23 09:30 11:30/13:00 15:00 黄金 3104.39,+3.02% 大V 资金 新闻 成分 研报 湖南黄金 0.00% 37.70 +10.01% SZ002155 | 恒邦股份 | 18.90 | +5.18% | -0.16% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SZ002237 | | | | | 业 ...

盘面上，有色金属板块持续走强，湖南黄金、章源钨业等10余股涨停。电力延续强势，南网能源、 豫能控股等多股涨停。算力租赁概念活跃，云天励飞、拓维信息等股涨停。CPO、PCB概念回调，新易 盛、中际旭创跌超5%。此外，钢铁、燃气、煤炭等板块涨幅居前，存储芯片、玻璃纤维、复合铜箔概 念等板块跌幅居前。 编辑：何颖曦 中国经济周刊-经济网讯 截至收盘，上证指数报4162.88点，涨幅0.39%，成交额10723.68亿元；深 证成指报14495.09点，跌幅0.06%，成交额14156.56亿元；创业板指报3310.31点，跌幅1.04%，成交额 6627.59亿元。 ...

Market Performance - The market experienced fluctuations with mixed results across the three major indices, where the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.39%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.06%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.04% [1] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector showed strong performance, with stocks like Zhangyuan Tungsten and Xianglu Tungsten hitting the daily limit [1] - The rare earth permanent magnet sector also saw gains, with stocks such as Zhongxi Rare Earth reaching the daily limit and Baogang Group nearing the limit [1] - Gold stocks rallied, with Hunan Gold hitting the daily limit [1] - The computing power leasing concept was active, with companies like Chengdi Xiangjiang and Litong Electronics also reaching the daily limit [1] Individual Stock Performance - Notable performers included Hengbang Shares, which increased by 10.01%, and other gold-related stocks such as Xiaocheng Technology (+5.18%) and Chifeng Gold (+4.96%) [3] - The computing chip sector saw a recovery in the afternoon, with declines narrowing for companies like Shengmei Shanghai and Mingyang Circuit [3] - The film and cinema sector continued to adjust, with Bona Film Group experiencing a decline of 2.58% [4] Market Outlook - Huaxi Securities expressed optimism for the A-share market, highlighting expectations for a "red envelope market" driven by external uncertainties and strong performances in the technology sector [5] - Factors such as the geopolitical situation in Iran and Trump's tariff policies have influenced market risk preferences, while the rebound of the US dollar index and the stable appreciation of the RMB are expected to enhance long-term investment in Chinese assets [5] - The release of catalysts in technology fields like robotics, AI models, and storage during the Spring Festival is anticipated to boost market expectations for post-holiday tech performance [5]

新华财经北京2月27日电本月的最后一个交易日，A股三大指数收盘涨跌不一。截至收盘，沪指涨 0.39%，报4162.88点；深证成指跌0.06%，报14495.09点；创业板指跌1.04%，报3310.30点。沪深京三市 成交额达到2.51万亿元，较上一交易日小幅缩量504亿元。 沪指本月累计涨1.09%，月线斩获3连阳，深成指累计涨2.04%，创业板指累计跌1.08%。 板块方面，小金属、稀土、贵金属、能源金属、有色金属、煤炭、电力板块涨幅居前；玻璃玻纤、元 件、电子化学品板块跌幅居前。 盘面热点 央行：将远期售汇业务的外汇风险准备金率从20%下调至0 央行公告称，为促进外汇市场发展，支持企业管理好汇率风险，中国人民银行决定自2026年3月2日起， 将远期售汇业务的外汇风险准备金率从20%下调至0。下一步，中国人民银行将继续引导金融机构优化 对企业汇率避险服务，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。 钇和钪两类稀土元素严重短缺部分美国航天与半导体供应商已"无力接单" 据智通财经报道，行业知情人士对媒体透露，美国航空航天和半导体公司的供应商当前正面临日益严重 的稀土短缺。短缺主要集中在钇和钪这两类稀土元素上 ...

每经记者｜杜波 每经编辑｜段炼 记者|杜波 编辑|段炼 易启江 校对|许绍航 | 新闻 大V | 成分 | 资金 | 研报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 湖南黄金 | | | | | | SZ002155 | 37.70 | | +10.01% | 0.00% | | 业绩龙头5 市值龙头 5 | | | | | | 恒邦股份 | | | | | | SZ002237 | 18.90 | | +5.18% | -0.16% | | 业绩龙头6 市值龙头 7 | | | | | | 晓程科技 | | | | | | @ SZ300139 | 66.48 | | +4.96% | +0.21% | | 市值龙头10 业绩龙头9 | | | | | | 赤峰黄金 | | | | | | SH600988 | 39.92 | | +2.97% | -0.18% | | 业绩龙头 4 市值龙头 4 | | | | | | 中金黄金 | | | | | | SH600489 | 31.84 | | +2.48% | +0.06% | | 业绩龙头2 市值龙头 2 | | | ...

2月27日，三大指数涨跌不一，截至收盘，上证指数涨0.39%，深证成指跌0.06%，创业板指跌1.04%， 科创50涨0.15%。两市超过3100只股票飘红，两市成交额约2.49万亿元。 煤炭板块表现不俗，山西焦化（600740.SH）涨超6%，潞安环能（601699.SH）、陕西黑猫 （601015.SH）、大有能源（600403.SH）、安泰集团（600408.SH）、郑州煤电（600121.SH）上涨。 中金公司认为，钨价短期有望继续偏强运行，并持续创下新高。该机构指出，由于国内因品位下降、规 范化要求趋严等影响，供给侧产量收缩压力加大，同时海外其他主要增量项目的投产进度存在不确定 性，叠加地缘冲突持续不断和海外通胀压力抬升，全球钨供给增量需要更高的激励价格。 跌幅榜上，部分半导体、存储芯片、PCB概念走弱，中微公司（688012.SH）、盛美上海 （688082.SH）、生益科技（600183.SH）、明阳电路（300739.SZ）下挫。造纸板块亦走弱，恒达新材 （301469.SZ）跌超8%，五洲特纸（605007.SH）跌超7%，博汇纸业（600966.SH）、ST晨鸣 （000488.SZ）下挫 ...