另一个支持小摩对中国宏桥乐观看法的因素是其展示了对股东回报的重视。事实上，宏桥集团的6%以 上的股息收益率为股价提供了坚实的支撑。 该行仍然看好铝业股票，并预计近期波动性较大，预计2026财年的收益增长为10-16%。该行认为，宏 桥的估值在当下被低估。中国宏桥作为中国铝业（601600）的重要生产商之一，预计将从这一趋势中受 益，维持健康的边际利润。此外，中国宏桥的低生产成本优势使其在全球同行中更具竞争力。 尽管中国宏桥(01378)达到近期高点后回调，但小摩认为这对投资者而已是一个买入良机，该行对2026 年铝行业的前景持建设性态度。小摩维持中国宏桥的"增持"评级，并将目标价从26.5港元上调至34港 元。 小摩对2026年铝行业的前景持建设性态度，这一前景受到全球需求的韧性、铜价上涨的幅度和健康的冶 炼利润率的支持。小摩的基本预测是，来自印尼的新供应将在2026年带来适度的过剩，但潜在的供应中 断风险和海外重启速度的放缓可能会使市场比其基本预测更紧张。 ...

Core Insights - Helmerich & Payne, Inc. is set to announce its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings on November 17, 2025, with an expected EPS of $0.26 and revenues of approximately $973 million [1][5] Financial Performance - The anticipated revenue of $973 million represents a significant 40% increase from the previous year's revenue of $694 million, driven by strong growth in the International and Offshore divisions [2][5] - The projected EPS of $0.26 indicates a decline from the prior year's EPS of $0.76, attributed to rising operating, depreciation, and administrative expenses [2][5] Analyst Sentiment - Despite profitability challenges, HP's stock has garnered attention from analysts, with Citigroup analyst Scott Gruber maintaining a Neutral rating but raising the price target from $17 to $26, reflecting a more optimistic outlook [3] - The consensus EPS forecast has seen a 7.9% downward adjustment over the last month, indicating some caution among analysts [3] Dividend and Valuation Metrics - HP offers an attractive annual dividend yield of 3.71%, translating to a quarterly dividend of $0.25 per share or $1.00 annually [4] - The price-to-sales ratio is 0.78, suggesting that investors are paying $0.78 for every dollar of sales, while the debt-to-equity ratio stands at 0.79, indicating moderate debt levels [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Credit Lyonnais indicates that Uni-President China is experiencing slowed sales growth due to intensified competition and subsidies from food delivery platforms, with third-quarter sales remaining roughly flat year-on-year, aligning with market expectations [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - The third-quarter sales growth for Uni-President China has slowed, remaining approximately flat year-on-year [1] - The management has noted that the pressure on beverage business continues to rise in October [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The company maintains its annual sales growth target of 6% to 8% despite current pressures [1] - Credit Lyonnais expects a slowdown in profit growth for the company next year [1] Group 3: Stock Valuation - The dividend yield is projected to be 6.3%, which is expected to support the stock price [1] - The target price for the stock has been slightly reduced from HKD 10.5 to HKD 10, while maintaining an "outperform" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America maintains a "Buy" rating for China Hongqiao's subsidiary Shandong Hongqiao, raising the target price from HKD 26.00 to HKD 35.00 [1] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Shandong Hongqiao reported total revenue of RMB 116.93 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.23% [1] - Net profit reached RMB 19.37 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 23.13% [1] - In Q3, net profit was RMB 6.9 billion, showing an 18% year-on-year growth and a 14% quarter-on-quarter increase, aligning with expectations [1] - Q3 gross margin expanded by 3 percentage points to 26% [1] Profit Growth Drivers - Profit growth is attributed to two main factors: 1. Margin expansion, with industry aluminum profit increasing by RMB 900 per ton and alumina profit rising by RMB 200 per ton in Q3 [1] 2. Contribution from the Wenshan project, which began contributing profits after the acquisition of the remaining 25% stake in Q2 [1] Industry Outlook - The Chinese aluminum industry is expected to remain resilient in Q4 due to low inventory, stable upstream supply, and seasonal demand from the power grid [1] - Current spot aluminum prices have risen above RMB 21,000 per ton, while alumina prices remain in the RMB 2,800–2,900 per ton range, with aluminum profit margins exceeding RMB 5,000 per ton [1] - Spot aluminum profit margins are projected to further increase by RMB 600 per ton compared to Q3 [1] Price Forecast Adjustments - Bank of America has raised its aluminum price forecast for 2025 to RMB 20,600 per ton (+RMB 100 per ton) and for 2026 to RMB 21,000 per ton [2] - As a result, profit forecasts for China Hongqiao for 2025-2027 have been increased by 5%-23%, with expected net profits of RMB 26 billion in 2025 (up 17% year-on-year) and RMB 30 billion in 2026 (up 15% year-on-year) [2] Investment Rationale - Reasons for maintaining a "Buy" rating include: 1. Constructive outlook on aluminum prices [2] 2. Attractive dividend yield (6%-7% under a 63% payout ratio assumption) [2] 3. The Ximangdu project is expected to commence production by the end of 2025, contributing approximately 3% to profits in 2026, with long-term potential to increase to 9% [2] 4. Ongoing share buybacks are expected to support the stock price [2] - The current target price corresponds to a 10x P/E ratio for 2026 forecasts, which remains attractive compared to Chinese copper companies (12-16x) and gold companies (16-17x) [2]

Core Viewpoint - China Coal's earnings increased by 16% QoQ to RMB3.86 billion in 3Q25, driven by higher realized coal prices and increased olefin sales volume, but a significant drop of 53% QoQ is expected in 4Q25 due to higher costs [1][3] Financial Performance - Under CAS, earnings surged 28% QoQ to RMB4.78 billion in 3Q25, attributed to a 4% decline in unit coal production costs [2] - The average selling price (ASP) of coal rose by 7% QoQ, with both thermal and coking coal prices increasing [3] - Olefin sales volume grew by 6% QoQ, following a major production ramp-up, leading to a 28% fall in unit costs for olefin [3] Earnings Forecasts - Earnings forecasts for 2025-27 have been increased by 2-6% after adjustments, with expectations of flat earnings in the next two years despite a slight decline in average coal prices [4] - The company's H shares are projected to offer an unattractive dividend yield of 3.4-3.5% for 2025-27, with a payout ratio of 35-36% in 2023-24 [4] Valuation - The target price has been raised from HK$7.21 to HK$7.57, reflecting the increases in earnings forecasts, maintaining a target valuation of a 5% average dividend yield for 2025-27 [5]

Core Viewpoint - SiriusXM has seen significant investment from billionaires like Warren Buffett, but the company faces substantial challenges, including a 72% decline in stock price since mid-2023 and increasing competition from modern music streaming services [1][4]. Financial Performance - SiriusXM's current stock price is $21.63, with a market cap of $7 billion and a P/E ratio of just 3, indicating it may appear undervalued [2][9]. - The company reported a revenue decline from $9 billion in 2023 to $8.565 billion over the last 12 months, alongside a decrease in self-pay subscribers by 68,000 last quarter [4][7]. - Operating margin has decreased from 30% in 2018 to 22% over the last 12 months, reflecting ongoing financial struggles [4]. Subscriber Trends - SiriusXM has experienced a decline in subscribers every year since the end of 2022, attributed to the rise of music streaming services like Spotify and YouTube Music [4][10]. - The company claims a low churn rate of 1.5%, but the overall subscriber base is under pressure from modern alternatives [4]. Debt Situation - SiriusXM has over $10 billion in long-term debt and less than $100 million in cash, leading to concerns about its financial stability [6][7]. - The company generates around $1 billion in free cash flow but pays over $100 million in quarterly interest payments, raising questions about its ability to sustain dividends and manage debt [7][9]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive environment has intensified with the emergence of platforms like Spotify and Apple Music, which offer extensive music libraries and are integrated into modern vehicles, reducing the necessity for SiriusXM subscriptions [4][10]. - Despite the high dividend yield of 5%, the company's declining subscriber base and revenue, coupled with significant debt, suggest that investing in SiriusXM may not be prudent at this time [2][10].

Core Viewpoint - 招银国际's report indicates that 滔搏 (06110) slightly exceeded expectations for the first half of the fiscal year ending August 2025, benefiting from resilient gross margins [1] Financial Performance - The company is expected to experience profit margin expansion due to strong support from core brands and the closure of underperforming stores [1] - The forecast for the second half of fiscal year 2026 sales growth is cautious, reflecting potential challenges [1] Market Outlook - There are positive signs from Nike, which enhances confidence in the company's recovery prospects, although it may take a considerable amount of time [1] - The projected dividend yield for fiscal year 2027 is estimated to reach 8% [1] Investment Rating - 招银国际 maintains a "Buy" rating for 滔搏, with the target price raised from HKD 3.62 to HKD 3.77 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Robert Half Inc is currently yielding above 8% based on its quarterly dividend, which is annualized to $2.36, with shares trading as low as $26.99 on the day [1] Group 1: Dividend Importance - Dividends have historically provided a significant portion of the stock market's total return, making them an important consideration for investors [1] - An example illustrates that an investment in the iShares Russell 3000 ETF (IWV) from 2000 to 2012 resulted in a nominal loss of 0.6%, but dividends collected during that period increased the total return to 13.15% [1] Group 2: Company Status - Robert Half Inc is a member of the Russell 3000, indicating its status as one of the largest 3000 companies in the U.S. stock markets [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley maintains an "Overweight" rating on China Mobile, with a target price of HKD 110 for H-shares and CNY 130 for A-shares [1] Financial Performance - In Q3, China Mobile's service revenue increased by 0.8% year-on-year, while net profit rose by 1.9%, which is 3% lower than market expectations [1] - The growth rate has slowed from 6% in the previous quarter, attributed to rising hardware sales costs [1] - Mobile users grew by 0.5% year-on-year to 1.01 billion, but average revenue per user (ARPU) declined by 3.2% to CNY 45.5 [1] - Mobile revenue decreased by 3%, while fixed broadband revenue increased by 8%, supported by a 5% rise in broadband users [1] Business Segments - The DICT business revenue has maintained a good growth rate in the first three quarters of the year, with AI direct revenue experiencing very rapid growth [1] Capital Expenditure - Capital expenditure for the first three quarters was CNY 117 billion, remaining flat year-on-year, while the company previously guided for a full-year capital expenditure decrease of 8% to CNY 151 billion [1] Dividend and Profit Outlook - Despite potential short-term pressure on traditional telecom service revenue and a need for several quarters for cloud revenue to accelerate, the annual dividend yield for China Mobile's H-shares is approximately 6.2%, which remains attractive [1] - The company is expected to achieve positive growth in annual profits [1]

Core Viewpoint - The potential ban by the FCC on Hong Kong Telecom's subsidiary providing telecommunications services in the U.S. is expected to have a limited impact on the company's profitability due to its minimal exposure to the U.S. market [1] Summary by Category Financial Impact - The U.S. market accounts for less than 1% of the company's total revenue, and the profit margin from this business is relatively low [1] - UBS forecasts an attractive dividend yield of approximately 7.6% for 2026, which could support the stock price amid rising regulatory uncertainty [1] Investment Rating - UBS maintains a "Buy" rating for Hong Kong Telecom with a target price of HKD 13.4 [1]