新华财经伦敦12月30日电 2025年，英国的股市和汇市相互支撑，交互影响，均走出上涨行情。随着英 国经济改善和美元指数疲软，2026年，英国股市和汇市互相支持的态势有望进一步凸显，英国伦敦股市 富时100指数（FTSE 100）或将在年初轻松突破10000点指数关口，并继续保持上行。英镑兑美元汇率 2026年也有望保持强势，尝试突破1.40美元兑1英镑的阶段新高。 英国股市2025年跑赢华尔街 除了在4月初有较大幅度下跌外，英国股市2025年全年基本保持震荡上涨趋势态势，富时100指数从年初 的8173点，一路攀升至年末的9866点，上涨幅度超过20%。这一上涨幅度超过美国的道琼斯工业平均指 数。对比2024年，2025年英国股市完全可以用"牛市"来形容。2024年，富时100指数全年涨幅为5.69%。 事实上，英国股市2025年的累计涨幅已经接近该指数2015年至2024年期间的10年累计涨幅。 不仅指数"牛"，英国股市的一些个股2025年涨幅也颇为可观。2025年，富时100指数成分股中有超过四 分之三的股票实现正增长，有15只股票的上涨幅度超过50%。矿业和金融股成为推动英国股市2025年不 断创出新 ...

this record- setting rally and how far stocks can go. Let's ask Tom Lee. He is Funstrat's head of research, a CNBC contributor.He's with me at Post 9 because he is out with his 2026 outlook for stocks. Thanks for sharing it with us first. We appreciate you for that.So, let's get right to it. So, we're going to 7700. That's the headline. So, that's pretty decent year in in the year ahead.Not quite as robust as we had this year. Why that target. >> Uh well, we're three years of 20% gains because the S&P proba ...

来源：有理想的蓝大 周末利好太多了，我就不一一例举了，但是有一个，我称之为本年度最大利好。 什么意思，就是松绑杠杠，可以加杠杠了，老股民都知道，2015年杠杠牛有多猛，硬是把大盘干到了5178 点。诞生了十几倍，几十倍的大牛股比比皆是。直到后面去杠杠，这轮牛市才截然而止。其实2015年-2025 年这十年，大部分时间是在去杠杠的，现在市场上几乎没我场外杠杠，突然松绑杠杠，什么信号？不用解 释了吧？就是要大干一场，股市不涨怎么解决实际问题。所以股市必走牛市，太简单了。现在只需要一轮 牛市就能解决大部分的问题。化债，还是问题吗？资产证券化，国资改革，还是问题吗？所以这一轮牛市 很多人看不懂，这就是命门所在，底层逻辑我告诉你了，信不信由你。 家具有国际影响力的标杆机构;中小机构需 聚焦细分领域、特色业务与重点区域,深耕 细作打造"小而美"的精品服务商。监管层 面将强化分类监管,对优质机构优化评价指 标、适度拓宽资本空间与杠杆上限,提升资 本利用效率;对中小机构、外资机构探索差 异化监管政策,促进特色化发展;对问题机 构依法从严监管。证券公司、投资机构在权 益投资、价格发现、风险管理等方面要顺应 时代发展。针对不同风 ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the implementation of moderately loose monetary policies by central banks, multinational capital will flow back, leading to a rising cycle in the stock market [3][4]. - In September, the overall surplus of foreign exchange settlement and sales reached $51 billion, approximately 362.6 billion RMB, marking a historic high [5]. - The current account surplus was $63.9 billion, about 450 billion RMB, which is the highest in nearly a decade [10]. Group 2 - The difference between profit and cash flow is highlighted, indicating that while profits may appear strong, cash flow issues can hinder economic activity [18][41]. - The article discusses the importance of cash flow in resolving various economic issues, including local government debt and the overall economic recovery [22][40]. - M1 money supply is noted to be rising, which typically correlates with a bullish stock market, suggesting that the stock market's upward trend is expected to continue [25][29]. Group 3 - Foreign capital is observed to be selling domestic bonds while buying stocks, indicating a shift in investment strategy [31][38]. - The article mentions that the capital account recorded a deficit of $12.1 billion, with significant outflows in securities investment [34][35]. - The political factors affecting the capital market are acknowledged, but the overall direction is seen as positive [39].

Market Overview - The stock market has shown strong performance, reaching new highs for the year, with the index approaching 4000 points, which is seen as a significant psychological level [5][6] - The meeting between the leaders of China and the United States is anticipated to have a positive impact on market sentiment, contributing to the recent stock market rally [5][6] Monetary Policy - The central bank conducted a net injection of 32 billion yuan through reverse repos, indicating a balanced and slightly loose liquidity environment [3] - A total of 900 billion yuan will be offered in a one-year Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation scheduled for October 27, 2025, which is expected to maintain liquidity in the banking system [3][5] Interest Rates - The interbank funding rates have shown slight fluctuations, with the DR001 rate around 1.32% and DR007 at approximately 1.41%, reflecting stable funding conditions [3] - The 10-year government bond yield has experienced minor increases, currently hovering around 1.845%, indicating market expectations of future rate adjustments [5][6] Bond Market Sentiment - The bond market sentiment is being tested by new regulations regarding public fund redemption fees, which are seen as a barometer for market emotions [6] - The recent adjustments in bond yields suggest a cautious approach from investors amid ongoing market developments [4][6]

Core Viewpoint - The stock market bull run may soon enter a phase of increased volatility as the global earnings season kicks off, with many major markets having already factored in upward revisions to earnings per share into stock prices [1] Group 1: Market Performance - European sectors with high international exposure have seen significant downward revisions in earnings expectations this year, underperforming compared to sectors focused on domestic business [1] Group 2: Earnings Concerns - The core concern is that if earnings do not meet expectations, the current valuation levels may limit future upside potential [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent rise in the Chinese stock market and the strengthening of the RMB are driven by optimistic sentiment and foreign capital inflows, with the RMB exchange rate showing signs of further appreciation as it approaches the 7.1 level against the USD [3][6][12]. Group 1: Stock Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed 3,800 points, with a trading volume of 3 trillion yuan on August 27, marking it as the fourth day in history to exceed this volume [6]. - The trading volume of the CSI 300 ETF reached 10.7 billion yuan, significantly higher than the average daily trading volume of 6 billion yuan in July [6]. - Technology stocks, particularly Cambricon Technologies, have led the bull market, reporting a 43-fold increase in revenue and achieving profitability for the first time [6][8]. Group 2: Foreign Capital Inflows - Key factors influencing the RMB exchange rate include the current account surplus and capital inflows from foreign investments in Chinese stocks and bonds [6]. - International hedge funds have increasingly invested in the Chinese stock market, contributing to the appreciation of the RMB from approximately 7.2 to 7.13 since early August [7]. Group 3: Exporter Behavior - The exchange rate for exporters has risen significantly, with the rate increasing from 46.1% to 54.9% in July, indicating a stronger tendency for exporters to sell USD [10]. - The reduction in outflow pressure on the RMB is also noted, with a decrease of 16 billion USD in net overseas assets for onshore banks in August [11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Goldman Sachs predicts that the USD/CNY exchange rate will gradually decline to 7.1 in the next 1-2 months, with potential further depreciation to 7.0 by the end of the year [12]. - UBS suggests that the RMB still has appreciation momentum, supported by increased exporter settlement activities and a favorable investment environment [12].

Group 1 - Historical data indicates that September is the worst-performing month for European and American stock markets, with the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq traditionally recording their largest declines of the year during this month [1][4][5] - Despite a strong performance in August, investors are bracing for a historically "infamous" month [5] Group 2 - The European market shows significant divergence, with banking stocks leading gains while media stocks lag behind [6] - The banking sector in Europe has been the biggest winner, reaching its highest level since the 2008 financial crisis due to positive earnings reports and ongoing merger rumors [7] - Deutsche Bank has performed exceptionally well, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 100% [8] - Conversely, media stocks have suffered over an 8% decline in the past two months, primarily due to concerns over the impact of AI [9] Group 3 - Institutional views on the market outlook are divided between optimistic and cautious perspectives [10] - Optimists believe the bull market will continue, supported by economic soft landing, robust corporate earnings, and lower interest rates [11] - Cautious analysts express concerns about the economic outlook, noting increasing pressures despite signs of resilience in the U.S. economy [11]

Group 1 - August saw significant gains in the US and European stock markets, with the S&P 500 reaching a historic high above 6500 points and the Dow Jones also hitting new highs, while the European Stoxx 600 recorded its first consecutive monthly gains since February [1] - Historical data indicates that September is typically the worst-performing month for US and European stock markets, with the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq traditionally experiencing their largest declines during this month [3] - In Europe, there is a clear divergence in market performance, with banking stocks leading gains and media stocks lagging behind, particularly due to concerns over the impact of AI on the sector [4][5] Group 2 - European banking stocks reached their highest levels since the 2008 financial crisis, driven by positive earnings reports and ongoing merger rumors, with Deutsche Bank showing a year-to-date increase of over 100% [4] - Media stocks have suffered a decline of over 8% in the past two months, with WPP, an advertising group, experiencing a 71% drop in pre-tax profits and lowering its full-year guidance [5] - Institutional views on market trends for September and beyond are divided, with some analysts remaining optimistic about a continued bull market, while others express caution regarding economic pressures [6][7]

Market Overview - The Beijing real estate market is experiencing a significant downturn, with both old and new properties seeing price declines, indicating characteristics of a late-stage bear market [1] - Recent data shows that the average price of new properties in various districts has dropped, with some areas like Huilongguan experiencing accelerated price declines over the past three months [6][7] Property Performance - Certain high-quality new residential areas, such as Zhongxin City and Yuanming Tian Song, have shown resilience, maintaining their prices despite the overall market decline [2][8] - The best-performing new projects in the past five years are located outside the Fifth Ring Road, highlighting the importance of location and quality in property value retention [8] Market Dynamics - The current market is characterized by a strong correlation between stock market performance and real estate demand, with a potential future recovery in the housing market expected as stock market gains translate into increased consumer spending on properties [10][11][16] - Historical patterns suggest that significant stock market increases often precede a recovery in the real estate market, with a lag of approximately 18 months observed in past cycles [12][13][14] Investment Sentiment - Investor confidence in the real estate market is currently low, with many individuals opting to sell properties to invest in the stock market, exacerbating the decline in property prices [10] - The expectation is that as the stock market continues to rise, it will eventually lead to a resurgence in the real estate market, driven by increased consumer spending and investment [15][16]