东吴证券近日发布燃气Ⅱ行业跟踪周报：美国库存充足、欧洲储库推进、国内需求缓慢 修复，各地气价均较为平稳。截至2025/09/26，美国HH/欧洲TTF/东亚JKM/中国LNG出厂/中 国LNG到岸价周环比变动-0.1%/+1.2%/-0.6%/-0.1%/-2.1%至0.7/2.8/2.9/2.7/2.8元/方，海内外 倒挂持续。 以下为研究报告摘要： 供需分析：1）库存充足，美国天然气市场价格周环比-0.1%。截至2025/09/24，天然气 的平均总供应量周环比-0.1%至1117亿立方英尺/日，同比+4.3%；总需求周环比+2.7%至1013 亿立方英尺/日，同比+2.7%；发电用天然气周环比+4.3%；住宅和商业部门的天然气消费量 周环比+0.7%；工业部门的天然气消费量周环比持平。截至2025/09/19，储气量周环比+750 亿立方英尺至35080亿立方英尺，同比+0.5%。2）储库推进，欧洲气价周环比+1.2%。 2025M1-6，欧洲天然气消费量为2408亿方，同比+5.8%。2025/9/18~2025/9/24，欧洲天然气 供给周环比-0.5%至54258GWh；其中，来自库存消耗-115 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the gas industry [1] Core Insights - The gas prices across various regions remain stable due to sufficient inventory in the US, progress in European storage, and slow recovery in domestic demand [1][10] - The report highlights the gradual implementation of price adjustments in urban gas companies, leading to improved profitability and valuation recovery [38] - The report emphasizes the importance of energy independence and the potential impact of US LNG import tariffs on companies with US gas sources [54][56] Price Tracking - As of September 26, 2025, the weekly price changes for various gas prices are as follows: US HH -0.1%, European TTF +1.2%, East Asia JKM -0.6%, China LNG ex-factory -0.1%, and China LNG CIF -2.1% [10][14] - The average total supply of natural gas in the US decreased by 0.1% week-on-week to 1,117 billion cubic feet per day, while total demand increased by 2.7% to 1,013 billion cubic feet per day [16] Supply and Demand Analysis - The report indicates that US natural gas inventory is sufficient, with a week-on-week increase of 750 billion cubic feet to 35,080 billion cubic feet [16] - In Europe, natural gas consumption from January to June 2025 was 2,408 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 5.8% [19] - Domestic natural gas apparent consumption in China increased by 0.8% year-on-year to 2,832 billion cubic meters from January to August 2025 [25][34] Pricing Mechanism Progress - Nationwide price adjustments have been gradually implemented, with 65% of cities adjusting residential gas prices by an average of 0.21 yuan per cubic meter [38] - The report suggests that there is still a 10% room for price gap recovery in urban gas companies [38] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that can optimize costs and benefit from the ongoing price adjustments, such as Xin'ao Energy, China Resources Gas, and Kunlun Energy [56] - It also highlights the importance of companies with quality long-term contracts and flexible scheduling, such as Jiufeng Energy and Xin'ao Shares [56] - Companies with gas production capabilities, like New Natural Gas and Blue Flame Holdings, are suggested for attention due to the increasing uncertainty in US gas imports [56]

Core Viewpoint - The modern coal chemical industry plays a crucial role in ensuring national energy security while facing challenges of green transformation under the "dual carbon" goals during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [1][2]. Industry and Company Research Industry Positioning - The modern coal chemical industry is strategically important for energy security in China, particularly in the context of high dependence on oil imports. The industry aims to replace oil with coal for producing high-end chemical materials [2]. - The industry is undergoing a transformation to enhance self-sufficiency and reduce reliance on imported high-end chemical products [2]. Company Initiatives - Baofeng Energy has established the largest and most complete modern coal chemical industrial cluster in China, located in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, which produces over 100 types of chemical products [2]. - The company’s annual production capacity of 5.2 million tons of polyolefins can replace nearly 30 million tons of oil imports and over 5 million tons of high-end polyolefins imports, addressing supply issues in the industry [2]. Technological Advancements - Baofeng Energy focuses on domestic innovation to overcome reliance on imported high-end equipment, achieving 23 core technologies and equipment that meet international standards [3][4]. - The company has set global records in several production metrics, including the largest scale of coal-to-olefins single plant and the highest capacity for coal gasification [3]. Green Development - The company has pioneered a "green hydrogen coupling" model, integrating clean energy into coal chemical production to reduce carbon emissions [6]. - Baofeng Energy's solar-powered hydrogen production project generates high-purity green hydrogen, which is used to produce green methanol and other products, thus addressing the industry's carbon footprint [6]. Digital Transformation - The company is leveraging AI, big data, and IoT technologies to enhance operational efficiency and safety in production processes [7]. - Baofeng Energy has developed an AI-based coal blending platform that optimizes raw material ratios, leading to reduced costs and improved efficiency [7]. Social Responsibility - Baofeng Energy has contributed significantly to local economies through tax payments and job creation, with a total tax contribution of 10.918 billion yuan and over 7,000 new jobs created from 2021 to 2024 [8]. - The company has also engaged in extensive charitable activities, providing financial support to students in need, with a total donation of 5.038 billion yuan [8]. Future Outlook - The modern coal chemical industry is moving towards greener, smarter, and higher-end development, with Baofeng Energy aiming to become a global supplier of new materials [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the gas industry [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the U.S. is expected to experience a temperature drop, leading to reduced cooling demand, while European storage is progressing and domestic demand is slowly recovering, resulting in relatively stable gas prices across regions [1][10] - It emphasizes the ongoing price adjustments in the domestic market, with a focus on the gradual implementation of pricing reforms that enhance profitability for city gas companies [35] Price Tracking - As of September 19, 2025, the weekly price changes for various gas markets are as follows: U.S. HH -0.2%, European TTF -0.7%, East Asia JKM +0.1%, China LNG ex-factory -0.8%, and China LNG CIF +0.7%, with prices at 0.7, 2.8, 2.9, 2.7, and 2.9 CNY/m³ respectively [5][10] - The average total supply of natural gas in the U.S. decreased by 0.5% week-on-week to 1,118 billion cubic feet per day, while total demand fell by 1.1% to 985 billion cubic feet per day [14] Supply and Demand Analysis - The report indicates that the average natural gas consumption in China for the first seven months of 2025 increased by 0.3% year-on-year to 246.1 billion cubic meters, attributed to warmer winter conditions in 2024 affecting heating demand [26] - In Europe, natural gas consumption for the first half of 2025 was 240.8 billion cubic meters, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.8% [17] Pricing Progress - Nationwide, 65% of cities have implemented residential pricing adjustments, with an average increase of 0.21 CNY/m³, indicating a trend towards improved profitability for city gas companies [35] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that can optimize costs and benefit from the ongoing pricing reforms, highlighting key companies such as New Hope Energy, China Resources Gas, and Kunlun Energy, among others [50] - It also suggests monitoring companies with quality long-term contracts and flexible scheduling capabilities, such as Jiufeng Energy and New Hope Holdings [50]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the gas industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the U.S. gas prices have decreased due to sufficient inventory, while European and Chinese gas prices remain stable [4][9] - It emphasizes the gradual progress of price alignment in the domestic market, which is expected to enhance profitability and valuation recovery for city gas companies [36] Price Tracking - As of September 12, 2025, U.S. HH gas prices decreased by 4.8%, while European TTF prices increased by 2.6%. The prices for East Asia JKM, Chinese LNG ex-factory, and Chinese LNG landed prices changed by +0.5%, -0.6%, and -1.4% respectively [4][9][10] - The average total supply of natural gas in the U.S. decreased by 0.1% week-on-week to 1,123 billion cubic feet per day, while total demand decreased by 0.4% to 995 billion cubic feet per day [14] Supply and Demand Analysis - U.S. natural gas consumption in the residential and commercial sectors increased by 16.5% week-on-week, while industrial consumption rose by 0.8% [14] - In Europe, natural gas consumption from January to May 2025 was 2,180 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 6.6% [16] - China's apparent natural gas consumption from January to July 2025 was 2,461 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 0.3% [21] Price Adjustment Progress - Nationwide, 65% of cities have implemented residential price adjustments, with an average increase of 0.21 yuan per cubic meter [36] - The report indicates that there is still a 10% room for price gap recovery in the city gas sector [36] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with cost optimization and supply flexibility, such as Xin'ao Energy, China Resources Gas, and Kunlun Energy, among others [4][36] - It suggests paying attention to companies with quality long-term contracts and cost advantages, such as Jiufeng Energy and Xin'ao Shares [4][36] Important Announcements - The U.S. gas import tariff has been reduced from 140% to 25%, improving the economic feasibility of U.S. gas imports [42] - The European Parliament has agreed to provide greater flexibility regarding natural gas storage targets, allowing for a deviation of 10 percentage points from the 90% storage target [48]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the gas industry [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a slight increase in raw gas demand leading to a minor rise in US gas prices, while European storage advancements have contributed to a decrease in gas prices [4][9]. - The overall supply-demand dynamics indicate a modest increase in raw gas demand, with US natural gas market prices rising by 3.3% week-on-week as of August 27, 2025 [16]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing integration of Jiufeng Energy and the gradual implementation of pricing reforms across the country, which are expected to enhance profitability and valuation recovery for city gas companies [35]. Price Tracking - As of August 29, 2025, the week-on-week changes in gas prices are as follows: US HH +3.3%, European TTF -6.6%, East Asia JKM -2.9%, China LNG ex-factory price 0%, and China LNG CIF price -6.2% [9][14]. - The average total supply of natural gas in the US increased by 0.1% week-on-week to 1,127 billion cubic feet per day, while total demand decreased by 3.5% to 1,025 billion cubic feet per day [16]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The report notes that the storage pace in Europe is slower than expected, leading to a week-on-week decrease in European gas prices by 6.6% [17]. - In China, the apparent consumption of natural gas from January to July 2025 increased by 0.3% year-on-year to 246.1 billion cubic meters, attributed to warmer winter conditions affecting heating gas demand [22][27]. Pricing Progress - The report states that 65% of cities have implemented residential pricing reforms, with an average price increase of 0.21 yuan per cubic meter [35]. - The introduction of a new pricing mechanism for provincial natural gas pipeline transportation is expected to lower costs for downstream users and promote industry growth [35]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that can optimize costs and benefit from the ongoing pricing reforms, particularly highlighting New Energy, China Gas, and Kunlun Energy as key investment opportunities [4][35]. - It also suggests monitoring companies with quality long-term contracts and flexible scheduling capabilities, such as Jiufeng Energy and Xin'ao [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the gas industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a cooling trend in temperatures leading to a decrease in US gas prices, while European storage efforts are pushing prices up. Domestic gas prices are also experiencing a decline due to slow demand recovery [5][10] - The supply-demand analysis indicates a slight increase in total gas supply in the US, while demand has decreased slightly. European gas prices have risen due to storage efforts, and domestic gas prices have also fallen [15][16] - The report emphasizes the ongoing progress in price adjustments across various cities, which is expected to enhance profitability for city gas companies and support valuation recovery [35] Summary by Sections Price Tracking - As of August 22, 2025, US HH gas prices decreased by 3.1%, while European TTF prices increased by 7.6%. Domestic LNG prices fell by 1.7% [10][12] Supply and Demand Analysis - US total gas supply increased by 0.4% week-on-week to 1,126 billion cubic feet per day, while total demand decreased by 1.2% to 1,061 billion cubic feet per day. European gas consumption for the first five months of 2025 was 2,180 billion cubic meters, up 6.6% year-on-year [15][16] Price Adjustment Progress - Nationwide, 64% of cities have implemented residential price adjustments, with an average increase of 0.21 yuan per cubic meter. The report suggests that there is still a 10% room for price gap recovery [35] Important Announcements - The report notes significant mid-year performance announcements from various gas companies, indicating mixed results in revenue and profit growth [41] Important Events - The report mentions a reduction in the US LNG import tariff from 140% to 25%, enhancing the economic viability of US gas imports [42][44] - It also discusses the EU's agreement to provide greater flexibility in natural gas storage targets, allowing for a 10% deviation from the 90% storage goal [49] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that can optimize costs and benefit from the ongoing price mechanism adjustments, particularly those with strong long-term contracts and flexible operations [5][35]

东吴证券近日发布燃气Ⅱ行业跟踪周报：预期8月下旬气温转凉，美国气价回落；需求 恢复缓慢国内气价回落。截至2025/08/15，美国HH/欧洲TTF/东亚JKM/中国LNG出厂/中国 LNG到岸价周环比变动-8.9%/+0.8%/-0.3%/-1.1%/-3.5%至0.7/2.8/3/2.8/2.9元/方，国内外气价 略有倒挂。 以下为研究报告摘要： 投资要点 价格跟踪：预期8月下旬气温转凉，美国气价回落；需求恢复缓慢国内气价回落。截至 2025/08/15，美国HH/欧洲TTF/东亚JKM/中国LNG出厂/中国LNG到岸价周环比变 动-8.9%/+0.8%/-0.3%/-1.1%/-3.5%至0.7/2.8/3/2.8/2.9元/方，国内外气价略有倒挂。 供需分析：1）8月下旬天气预报转凉，美国天然气市场价格周环比-8.9%。截至 2025/08/13，天然气的平均总供应量周环比+0.2%至1121亿立方英尺/日，同比+4%；总需求 周环比+5.2%至1081亿立方英尺/日，同比+8.9%；发电用天然气周环比+10.4%；住宅和商业 部门的天然气消费量周环比+5.3%；工业部门的天然气消费量周环比-1.0%。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the gas industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates a rise in US gas prices due to warmer temperatures in August, while domestic gas prices are expected to decline amid slow demand recovery and intensified competition between sea and land sources [5][10] - The report highlights the ongoing adjustments in pricing mechanisms and the potential for cost reductions in downstream gas companies, which may lead to improved profitability and valuation recovery [37][50] Price Tracking - As of August 8, 2025, US HH gas prices increased by 1.5% week-on-week, while European TTF prices decreased by 2.7%, and domestic LNG prices fell by 3.8% [5][10] - The average total supply of natural gas in the US decreased by 1.1% week-on-week to 1,119 billion cubic feet per day, while total demand fell by 6.5% to 1,025 billion cubic feet per day [14][27] Supply and Demand Analysis - The report notes that China's apparent natural gas consumption decreased by 0.2% year-on-year to 2,103 billion cubic feet in the first half of 2025, attributed to warmer winter conditions in 2024 affecting heating demand [27][28] - Domestic LNG import prices averaged 3,819 yuan per ton in June 2025, reflecting a 3.3% increase month-on-month but an 8% decrease year-on-year [27][31] Pricing Mechanism Progress - The report indicates that 64% of cities have implemented residential pricing adjustments, with an average increase of 0.21 yuan per cubic meter [37] - The new pricing mechanism for provincial natural gas pipeline transportation aims to reduce costs and enhance efficiency, with a permitted return rate lower than current provincial levels [50][51] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that can benefit from cost reductions and pricing adjustments, such as Xin'ao Energy, China Resources Gas, and Kunlun Energy, among others [53] - It also suggests monitoring companies with quality long-term contracts and flexible scheduling capabilities, such as Jiufeng Energy and Xin'ao Shares [53]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q2 net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 28% year-on-year, exceeding expectations, indicating robust growth in profitability [2] - The company achieved a total revenue of 3.4 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 20%, with a net profit of 640 million yuan, up 30% year-on-year [2] - The company maintains a strong profit margin, with a net profit margin of 18.7% in the first half of 2025, an increase of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company is expected to benefit from geopolitical tensions and increased energy independence, leading to higher demand for valve procurement [3] - The company has a solid order backlog from major clients like Saudi Aramco and ADNOC, with ongoing expansion of new products and market share [3] - The 2025 stock incentive plan aims to motivate key employees and reflects the company's long-term confidence in its development [4] Financial Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2023 is 5.544 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 36.59% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 721.8 million yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 54.85% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is estimated at 0.94 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 35.39 [1] - The company expects to achieve a net profit of 1.15558 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 60.10% [1] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 1.4499 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 25.47% [1]