Group 1: Electricity Consumption and Economic Indicators - In October, the national electricity consumption exceeded a 10% increase, marking a new high for the year, indicating strong economic activity [1] - The double-digit growth in electricity consumption has led to a rapid increase in demand for various energy sources, including coal, nuclear, and lithium [1] Group 2: Coal Market Dynamics - The price of thermal coal has been rising, with port prices around 830 RMB/ton, while major coal-producing regions continue to see weekly price increases [2] - As of November 21, prices in key coal-producing areas showed upward trends, with Shanxi's Q5500 at 690 RMB/ton (up 10 RMB), and Shaanxi's Q5800 at 668 RMB/ton (up 3 RMB) [2] - Analysts predict that the thermal coal market will remain high and volatile due to supply constraints and rising costs, with spot prices expected to fluctuate between 800-860 RMB/ton [2][3] Group 3: Nuclear Energy Developments - The nuclear power sector is experiencing rapid growth, with over 10 new units approved annually since 2019, and a record 11 units expected in 2024 [4] - The completion of the world's largest "Hualong One" nuclear power unit marks a significant milestone in China's nuclear energy development [4] - Investment in nuclear power has also seen substantial growth, with a 23.3% year-on-year increase in nuclear power investment [4] Group 4: Uranium Market Trends - The price of uranium is on a slow upward trend, with current spot prices at 77 USD/pound, driven by a tightening supply-demand balance [5][4] Group 5: Lithium and Energy Storage Sector - The lithium battery and energy storage sectors are experiencing high demand, with significant investments leading to price increases in lithium materials [6] - In the first eight months of the year, China signed and initiated 183 projects in the lithium battery industry, totaling approximately 400 billion RMB [6] - A forecast indicates that lithium carbonate demand may grow by 30% by 2026, with potential price increases if demand exceeds expectations [7] Group 6: Market Supply and Demand Dynamics - The lithium carbonate market is currently facing a monthly shortfall, with demand outpacing supply, leading to a sustained reduction in inventory [7] - Recent price surges in lithium carbonate have seen prices reach near historical highs, with significant increases from the year's lowest points [7]

Group 1: Electricity Consumption and Market Trends - In October, the total electricity consumption in China increased by over 10%, reaching a new high for the year, indicating robust economic activity [1] - The demand for traditional and new energy sources, including coal, nuclear, and lithium, is experiencing rapid growth, with strong price rebounds observed in upstream raw materials like thermal coal, natural uranium, and lithium carbonate [1] Group 2: Coal Market Dynamics - Coal prices in major production areas are on the rise, with prices in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia showing weekly increases, indicating a tightening supply and strong demand [2][3] - The current market for thermal coal is expected to remain high and volatile, with port prices fluctuating between 800 and 860 yuan per ton, driven by supply constraints and seasonal demand [2] - The transportation of coal has peaked, with daily transport volumes exceeding 1.2 million tons, while coal imports and exports have seen significant declines [3] Group 3: Nuclear Energy Development - The nuclear power sector is rapidly expanding, with over 10 new units approved annually since 2019, and a record 11 units expected in 2024 [4] - The successful grid connection of the world's largest "Hualong One" nuclear power unit marks a significant milestone in China's nuclear energy capabilities [4] - Investment in nuclear power has also seen substantial growth, with a 23.3% year-on-year increase in investment completion [4] Group 4: Lithium and Energy Storage - The lithium battery industry is witnessing a surge in new projects, with 183 projects signed or initiated in the first eight months of the year, amounting to approximately 400 billion yuan in total investment [5] - The price of lithium carbonate has rebounded sharply, with futures contracts surpassing 100,000 yuan per ton, reflecting strong market sentiment and demand expectations [6]

Core Insights - In October, the total electricity consumption in China increased by over 10%, reaching a new high for the year, indicating robust economic activity and demand for both traditional and renewable energy sources [1] Group 1: Coal Market Dynamics - Coal prices in major production areas are on the rise, with prices in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia showing weekly increases, reflecting strong demand and supply constraints [2] - The current market for thermal coal is expected to remain high due to tightening supply, rising costs, and seasonal demand, with port prices fluctuating between 800 and 860 yuan per ton [2] - The Daqin Railway is operating at high capacity, transporting over 1.2 million tons of coal daily, while coal imports and exports have seen significant declines [3] Group 2: Nuclear Energy Growth - The nuclear power sector in China is experiencing rapid growth, with over 10 new units approved annually since 2019, and a record 11 units expected in 2024 [4] - The completion of the world's largest "Hualong One" nuclear power unit marks a significant milestone in China's nuclear energy capabilities [4] - Investment in nuclear power has also seen substantial growth, with a 23.3% year-on-year increase in investment completed in the first nine months of 2025 [4] Group 3: Upstream Raw Material Demand - The demand for upstream materials in the nuclear power sector, particularly uranium, is increasing, with prices expected to rise due to a tightening supply-demand balance [5] - The lithium battery industry is witnessing a surge in investment, with over 183 projects initiated in the first eight months of the year, leading to significant price increases for lithium carbonate [5] - Lithium carbonate prices have rebounded sharply, with futures contracts reaching over 100,000 yuan per ton, reflecting strong market sentiment and demand expectations [5]

Core Insights - The primary goal is to reverse the PPI trend, with September PPI's year-on-year decline narrowing to 2.3%, indicating a stabilization in PPI driven by coal prices [3] - The coal price is expected to remain stable, with 2025 potentially marking a policy bottom for coal prices, as supply-side policies are anticipated to be introduced [3] - The coal industry is experiencing a transformation, with limited supply elasticity due to strict capacity controls and increasing mining difficulties, particularly in eastern regions [3] Industry Summary - As of November 7, 2025, Qinhuangdao's 5500K thermal coal closing price is 817 RMB/ton, up 6.1% week-on-week, with significant price increases in Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, and Shanxi [1] - Daily average production of thermal coal from 462 sample mines is 5.493 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 42,000 tons but a year-on-year decrease of 6.2% [1] - Methanol and urea operating rates are at 87.8% and 82.7%, respectively, both above historical levels [1] Company Recommendations - Companies with excellent resource endowments and stable operating performance, such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal, are recommended for investment [4] - Companies with production growth potential benefiting from a coal price cycle bottom, including Yanzhou Coal, Huayang Co., Guanghui Energy, Jinkong Coal, and Gansu Energy, are also suggested [4] - Companies with globally scarce resources benefiting from long-term supply tightness, such as Huaibei Mining, Pingmei Shenma, Shanxi Coking Coal, Lu'an Environmental Energy, and Shanmei International, are highlighted [4]

Investment Rating - The coal industry maintains a rating of "stronger than the market" [7] Core Views - The report emphasizes that stabilizing coal prices is crucial for reversing the Producer Price Index (PPI) decline, which narrowed to a year-on-year decrease of 2.3% in September. The correlation between coal prices and PPI suggests that coal prices need to stabilize, with the lowest point expected to be a policy bottom in 2025. The report anticipates further supply-side policies to emerge as competition is regulated [5][6] - The coal industry is positioned within an energy transformation era, where strict capacity controls and increasing extraction difficulties are expected to limit supply. The report suggests that coal's status as a primary energy source will remain unchanged in the short term, with prices likely to maintain a fluctuating upward trend due to rigid supply and rising costs [5][6] Summary by Sections Coal Price Overview - As of October 31, 2025, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price is stable at 770 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week change of 0.0% and a year-on-year decrease of 79 CNY/ton (9.3%) [3][31] - The average daily output of 462 sample coal mines is 5.451 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 3.1 thousand tons and a year-on-year decrease of 5.5% [3][39] - The report notes a significant increase in coal inventory at Qinhuangdao port, reaching 590 thousand tons, a week-on-week increase of 37 thousand tons (6.7%) [3][56] Coking Coal Overview - The price of main coking coal at Jingtang port is 1760 CNY/ton, remaining unchanged week-on-week, with a year-on-year increase of 20 CNY/ton (1.1%) [4][72] - The average daily output of 523 sample coking coal mines is 758 thousand tons, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.3 thousand tons and a year-on-year decrease of 2.7% [4][71] - The report indicates that the coking coal inventory at independent coking plants is 905.7 thousand tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 20.1 tons (2.27%) [4][71] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong resource endowments and stable operating performance, such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [6] - Companies with production growth potential benefiting from the coal price cycle, such as Yanzhou Coal Mining, Huayang Co., and Guanghui Energy, are also recommended [6] - The report highlights companies with globally scarce resources, such as Huaibei Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal, as attractive investment targets [6]

Investment Rating - The coal industry maintains a rating of "stronger than the market" [7] Core Views - The report emphasizes that reversing the Producer Price Index (PPI) is the fundamental goal, with coal prices stabilizing and influencing PPI [5] - The coal industry is expected to remain in a "golden era" due to energy transformation and strict capacity controls under carbon neutrality policies [5] - Coal prices are anticipated to experience fluctuations but trend upwards, with a focus on high-quality core stocks for investment [5] Summary by Sections Coal Market Overview - In August, electricity consumption increased by 5.0% year-on-year, and coke prices have begun to rise [2] - As of September 26, 2025, the price of Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal was 701 RMB/ton, a slight decrease of 0.4% week-on-week [3] - Daily average production from 462 sample mines was 5.651 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 30,000 tons [3] Coking Coal - As of September 26, 2025, the price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,750 RMB/ton, up 4.8% week-on-week [4] - Daily average production from 523 sample mines was 772,000 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.1% [4] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report indicates that coal supply is regionally differentiated, with production challenges expected to increase as resources in eastern regions diminish [5] - The average daily consumption of the six major power plants decreased slightly, while their inventory increased [35][36] - The methanol and urea operating rates were reported at 82.5% and 85.6%, respectively, indicating a high level of operational activity [40] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong resource endowments and stable operating performance, such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal [6] - Companies with production growth potential and benefiting from the coal price cycle are also recommended, including Yanzhou Coal and Huayang Co. [6] - The report highlights the importance of coal-electricity integration models to mitigate cyclical fluctuations [6]

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a rating of "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Views - The report emphasizes that the fundamental goal is to reverse deflation, with July's PPI down 3.6% year-on-year, continuing a downward trend. The strong correlation between PPI and coal prices suggests that coal prices need to stabilize. The lowest point for coal prices in 2024 may represent a policy bottom, with expectations for more supply-side policies to be introduced. Given the unclear demand-side changes, coal prices are expected to fluctuate upward amidst volatility, with a focus on high-quality core stocks as primary targets [5][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - The coal index rose by 3.65% this week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.41 percentage points. Year-to-date, the coal index has dropped by 7.08%, while the Shanghai Composite Index has increased by 4.32%, indicating a significant underperformance of the coal index compared to the broader market [15][22]. 2. Thermal Coal 2.1 Key Indicators - As of August 8, 2025, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price was 682 CNY/ton, up 2.9% week-on-week, but down 19.4% year-on-year. The average daily output from 462 sample mines was 5.624 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 150,000 tons [3][27][33]. 2.2 Annual Contract Price - The annual contract price for Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) was 668 CNY/ton as of August 2025, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.3% but a year-on-year decrease of 4.4% [28]. 2.3 Spot Prices - Domestic prices for thermal coal showed mixed trends, with significant increases in Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi, while Shanxi saw a slight rise. The price for Inner Mongolia's high-quality coal reached 547.8 CNY/ton, up 5.6% week-on-week [33][40]. 2.4 Supply and Demand - The operating rate of coal mines in the Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia regions was 80.1%, with a slight decrease from the previous week. The daily consumption of the six major power plants increased to 93.3 million tons, up 6.5% week-on-week [41][46]. 3. Coking Coal 3.1 Key Indicators - As of August 8, 2025, the price for coking coal at the Jing Tang Port was 1610 CNY/ton, down 4.2% week-on-week. The average daily output from 523 sample mines was 755,000 tons, reflecting a decrease of 2.79% from the previous week [80][81]. 3.2 Spot Prices - The price for coking coal in Henan rose significantly by 5.8% week-on-week to 1460 CNY/ton, while prices in Anhui also saw a notable increase [82][84].

Group 1 - The price of coking coal in Hebei has been raised by 50/55 yuan per ton, with the new price for first-grade wet quenching coke set at 1520 yuan per ton, effective from 0:00 on the 4th [1] - Downstream steel mills still have a certain profit margin, and the high-level iron water output is fluctuating, indicating a generally positive market sentiment that supports coking coal prices [1] - The recent coal mine capacity inspection did not significantly impact production, and the supply of coking coal remains sufficient, although there is a growing fear of high prices in the market [1] Group 2 - The position of coal as a primary energy source is unlikely to change in the short term, with macroeconomic weakness affecting demand but supply rigidity and rising costs supporting coal prices [2] - Coal companies generally have healthy asset reports, and improved dividend ratios give coal stocks a comparative advantage [2] - Companies with significant elasticity in coking coal include Huabei Mining, Pingmei Shenma, Lu'an Environmental Energy, and Shanxi Coking Coal [3]

Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "stronger than the market" [7] Core Views - The coal prices have shown a continuous upward trend due to increased daily consumption and reduced inventory as the peak season approaches [5] - The global coal shipment volume to China reached 5.524 million tons, an increase of 1.096 million tons, while the coal arrival volume was 6.376 million tons, up by 1.31 million tons year-on-year [5] - The coal supply elasticity is limited due to strict capacity control under carbon neutrality policies and increasing mining difficulties, leading to a potential new normal of underproduction [5] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The coal index dropped by 4.67%, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 2.92 percentage points [15] - Year-to-date, the coal index has decreased by 10.35%, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index has increased by 3.05% [15] 2. Thermal Coal 2.1 Key Indicators Overview - As of August 1, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price was 663 CNY/ton, up by 1.5% week-on-week [3][30] - The average daily output of 462 sample mines was 5.474 million tons, down by 3.32% week-on-week [42] 2.2 Annual Long-term Price - The long-term price for Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) was 668 CNY/ton, a month-on-month increase of 0.3% [28] 2.3 Spot Prices - The domestic price for Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal increased by 10 CNY/ton week-on-week [30] - The price for Inner Mongolia's 5500K coal rose by 25.5 CNY/ton, while Shanxi's price increased by 32 CNY/ton [30] 2.4 Supply and Demand 2.4.1 Supply - The operating rate of coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia was 80.2%, down by 1.3 percentage points week-on-week [40] - The average daily output of thermal coal from 462 sample mines decreased by 3.32% week-on-week [42] 2.4.2 Demand - The daily consumption of the six major power plants increased slightly to 87.7 million tons, up by 0.63% week-on-week [46] - The inventory of these power plants decreased to 1,394.3 million tons, down by 0.26% week-on-week [46] 2.4.3 Inventory Management - The total inventory index for thermal coal was 192 points, down by 1.8% week-on-week [56] - The inventory at Qinhuangdao port dropped significantly to 535 million tons, down by 8.23% week-on-week [66] 3. Coking Coal 3.1 Key Indicators Overview - The price for coking coal at Jing Tang port remained stable at 1,680 CNY/ton [80] - The average daily output of coking coal from 523 sample mines was 77.7 million tons [80] 3.2 Spot Prices - The price for Shanxi's coking coal increased by 30 CNY/ton week-on-week, while prices in Henan and Anhui remained unchanged [81]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "stronger than market" rating for the coal industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [7]. Core Views - The coal price has shown a continuous rebound due to rising daily consumption and decreasing inventory as the peak season approaches [5]. - The global coal shipment volume to China reached 4.166 million tons, a weekly increase of 2.9 tons, but a year-on-year decrease of 19.7% [5]. - The report suggests increasing allocation to coal stocks that benefit from price elasticity, highlighting the significant dividend yield and value of core stocks in the long term [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The coal index slightly decreased by 0.87%, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which increased by 1.09% [16]. - Year-to-date, the coal index has dropped by 12.9%, while the broader index has risen by 3.14% [16]. - The current PE ratio for the coal sector is 12.6 times, ranking it among the lowest in the A-share market [17]. 2. Thermal Coal 2.1 Key Indicators Overview - As of July 18, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price is 642 RMB/ton, a weekly increase of 1.6% [3][30]. - The average daily output of 462 sample mines is 5.697 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.97% [43]. - The operating rate of coal mines in Shanxi is 70.7%, with a slight increase from the previous week [41]. 2.2 Annual Long-term Contract Price - The long-term contract price for Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) is 666 RMB/ton, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 0.4% [29]. 2.3 Spot Prices - The spot price for Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal increased by 10 RMB/ton week-on-week [30]. - The price for Shanxi weakly adhesive coal (5500K) rose by 24 RMB/ton, marking a 4.8% increase [33]. 2.4 Supply and Demand - The operating rate of coal mines in the Shanxi-Inner Mongolia-Shaanxi region is 81.1%, with a slight increase from the previous week [41]. - Daily consumption at six major power plants rose to 89.9 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.1% [47]. - The total inventory of thermal coal at 462 sample mines is 337.5 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 128.3% [63]. 3. Coking Coal 3.1 Key Indicators Overview - The price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port increased to 1440 RMB/ton, a weekly rise of 6.67% [81]. - The average daily output of coking coal from 523 sample mines is 77 million tons, with an operating rate of 86.1% [81]. 3.2 Spot Prices - The price of Shanxi coking coal rose to 1150 RMB/ton, marking a 9.5% increase week-on-week [82]. - The price of Henan coking coal remains stable at 1380 RMB/ton, with no change from the previous week [82].