Investment Rating - The industry maintains a rating of "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Views - The report emphasizes that the fundamental goal is to reverse deflation, with July's PPI down 3.6% year-on-year, continuing a downward trend. The strong correlation between PPI and coal prices suggests that coal prices need to stabilize. The lowest point for coal prices in 2024 may represent a policy bottom, with expectations for more supply-side policies to be introduced. Given the unclear demand-side changes, coal prices are expected to fluctuate upward amidst volatility, with a focus on high-quality core stocks as primary targets [5][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - The coal index rose by 3.65% this week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.41 percentage points. Year-to-date, the coal index has dropped by 7.08%, while the Shanghai Composite Index has increased by 4.32%, indicating a significant underperformance of the coal index compared to the broader market [15][22]. 2. Thermal Coal 2.1 Key Indicators - As of August 8, 2025, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price was 682 CNY/ton, up 2.9% week-on-week, but down 19.4% year-on-year. The average daily output from 462 sample mines was 5.624 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 150,000 tons [3][27][33]. 2.2 Annual Contract Price - The annual contract price for Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) was 668 CNY/ton as of August 2025, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.3% but a year-on-year decrease of 4.4% [28]. 2.3 Spot Prices - Domestic prices for thermal coal showed mixed trends, with significant increases in Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi, while Shanxi saw a slight rise. The price for Inner Mongolia's high-quality coal reached 547.8 CNY/ton, up 5.6% week-on-week [33][40]. 2.4 Supply and Demand - The operating rate of coal mines in the Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia regions was 80.1%, with a slight decrease from the previous week. The daily consumption of the six major power plants increased to 93.3 million tons, up 6.5% week-on-week [41][46]. 3. Coking Coal 3.1 Key Indicators - As of August 8, 2025, the price for coking coal at the Jing Tang Port was 1610 CNY/ton, down 4.2% week-on-week. The average daily output from 523 sample mines was 755,000 tons, reflecting a decrease of 2.79% from the previous week [80][81]. 3.2 Spot Prices - The price for coking coal in Henan rose significantly by 5.8% week-on-week to 1460 CNY/ton, while prices in Anhui also saw a notable increase [82][84].

Group 1 - The price of coking coal in Hebei has been raised by 50/55 yuan per ton, with the new price for first-grade wet quenching coke set at 1520 yuan per ton, effective from 0:00 on the 4th [1] - Downstream steel mills still have a certain profit margin, and the high-level iron water output is fluctuating, indicating a generally positive market sentiment that supports coking coal prices [1] - The recent coal mine capacity inspection did not significantly impact production, and the supply of coking coal remains sufficient, although there is a growing fear of high prices in the market [1] Group 2 - The position of coal as a primary energy source is unlikely to change in the short term, with macroeconomic weakness affecting demand but supply rigidity and rising costs supporting coal prices [2] - Coal companies generally have healthy asset reports, and improved dividend ratios give coal stocks a comparative advantage [2] - Companies with significant elasticity in coking coal include Huabei Mining, Pingmei Shenma, Lu'an Environmental Energy, and Shanxi Coking Coal [3]

Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "stronger than the market" [7] Core Views - The coal prices have shown a continuous upward trend due to increased daily consumption and reduced inventory as the peak season approaches [5] - The global coal shipment volume to China reached 5.524 million tons, an increase of 1.096 million tons, while the coal arrival volume was 6.376 million tons, up by 1.31 million tons year-on-year [5] - The coal supply elasticity is limited due to strict capacity control under carbon neutrality policies and increasing mining difficulties, leading to a potential new normal of underproduction [5] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The coal index dropped by 4.67%, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 2.92 percentage points [15] - Year-to-date, the coal index has decreased by 10.35%, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index has increased by 3.05% [15] 2. Thermal Coal 2.1 Key Indicators Overview - As of August 1, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price was 663 CNY/ton, up by 1.5% week-on-week [3][30] - The average daily output of 462 sample mines was 5.474 million tons, down by 3.32% week-on-week [42] 2.2 Annual Long-term Price - The long-term price for Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) was 668 CNY/ton, a month-on-month increase of 0.3% [28] 2.3 Spot Prices - The domestic price for Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal increased by 10 CNY/ton week-on-week [30] - The price for Inner Mongolia's 5500K coal rose by 25.5 CNY/ton, while Shanxi's price increased by 32 CNY/ton [30] 2.4 Supply and Demand 2.4.1 Supply - The operating rate of coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia was 80.2%, down by 1.3 percentage points week-on-week [40] - The average daily output of thermal coal from 462 sample mines decreased by 3.32% week-on-week [42] 2.4.2 Demand - The daily consumption of the six major power plants increased slightly to 87.7 million tons, up by 0.63% week-on-week [46] - The inventory of these power plants decreased to 1,394.3 million tons, down by 0.26% week-on-week [46] 2.4.3 Inventory Management - The total inventory index for thermal coal was 192 points, down by 1.8% week-on-week [56] - The inventory at Qinhuangdao port dropped significantly to 535 million tons, down by 8.23% week-on-week [66] 3. Coking Coal 3.1 Key Indicators Overview - The price for coking coal at Jing Tang port remained stable at 1,680 CNY/ton [80] - The average daily output of coking coal from 523 sample mines was 77.7 million tons [80] 3.2 Spot Prices - The price for Shanxi's coking coal increased by 30 CNY/ton week-on-week, while prices in Henan and Anhui remained unchanged [81]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "stronger than market" rating for the coal industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [7]. Core Views - The coal price has shown a continuous rebound due to rising daily consumption and decreasing inventory as the peak season approaches [5]. - The global coal shipment volume to China reached 4.166 million tons, a weekly increase of 2.9 tons, but a year-on-year decrease of 19.7% [5]. - The report suggests increasing allocation to coal stocks that benefit from price elasticity, highlighting the significant dividend yield and value of core stocks in the long term [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The coal index slightly decreased by 0.87%, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which increased by 1.09% [16]. - Year-to-date, the coal index has dropped by 12.9%, while the broader index has risen by 3.14% [16]. - The current PE ratio for the coal sector is 12.6 times, ranking it among the lowest in the A-share market [17]. 2. Thermal Coal 2.1 Key Indicators Overview - As of July 18, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price is 642 RMB/ton, a weekly increase of 1.6% [3][30]. - The average daily output of 462 sample mines is 5.697 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.97% [43]. - The operating rate of coal mines in Shanxi is 70.7%, with a slight increase from the previous week [41]. 2.2 Annual Long-term Contract Price - The long-term contract price for Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) is 666 RMB/ton, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 0.4% [29]. 2.3 Spot Prices - The spot price for Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal increased by 10 RMB/ton week-on-week [30]. - The price for Shanxi weakly adhesive coal (5500K) rose by 24 RMB/ton, marking a 4.8% increase [33]. 2.4 Supply and Demand - The operating rate of coal mines in the Shanxi-Inner Mongolia-Shaanxi region is 81.1%, with a slight increase from the previous week [41]. - Daily consumption at six major power plants rose to 89.9 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.1% [47]. - The total inventory of thermal coal at 462 sample mines is 337.5 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 128.3% [63]. 3. Coking Coal 3.1 Key Indicators Overview - The price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port increased to 1440 RMB/ton, a weekly rise of 6.67% [81]. - The average daily output of coking coal from 523 sample mines is 77 million tons, with an operating rate of 86.1% [81]. 3.2 Spot Prices - The price of Shanxi coking coal rose to 1150 RMB/ton, marking a 9.5% increase week-on-week [82]. - The price of Henan coking coal remains stable at 1380 RMB/ton, with no change from the previous week [82].

Investment Rating - The report suggests an increase in allocation to coal-related stocks due to the rebound in coal prices and the overall health of coal companies' balance sheets [5][6]. Core Views - The price of thermal coal is approaching 600 RMB, leading to negative feedback on the supply side. The report notes a continued decrease in coal imports as of May, with global coal shipment volumes to China at 4.85 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 23.7% [5]. - The coal industry is undergoing a transformation driven by energy security and policy changes, indicating that coal may still be in a golden era. The supply of coal is expected to remain rigid due to strict capacity controls and increasing extraction difficulties [5]. - The report emphasizes that while macroeconomic conditions may temporarily affect coal demand, the rigid supply and rising costs will support coal prices, which are expected to maintain a volatile pattern [5]. Summary by Sections Thermal Coal - As of July 4, 2025, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price is 623 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 25.8% [3][30]. - The average daily production of thermal coal from 462 sample mines is 5.661 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.2% [45]. - The inventory index for thermal coal is at 194.3, showing a year-on-year decline [3][49]. Coking Coal - The price of coking coal at the Jing Tang Port remains at 1230 RMB/ton, unchanged week-on-week, with a year-on-year decrease of 41.7% [4][83]. - The average daily production of coking coal from 523 sample mines is 739,000 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 0.15% [82]. - The inventory of coking coal at independent coking plants is 716,500 tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 5.57% [82]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies several investment opportunities in the coal sector, including companies with strong resource endowments and stable operating performance, such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy [6]. - Companies benefiting from coal-electricity integration and those with production growth potential are also highlighted as attractive investment targets [6].

Group 1 - The current global energy landscape is undergoing a significant transformation, with coal potentially remaining in a golden era due to policy directions and energy security demands [1] - Coal supply is tight due to strict capacity control under dual carbon policies, increased safety and environmental regulations, and regional supply differentiation, particularly as eastern resources diminish and mining in Shanxi stabilizes [1] - The increasing difficulty of coal mining and heightened safety standards may lead to a new normal of underproduction, highlighting the scarcity of resources [1] Group 2 - Coal's status as a primary energy source is unlikely to change in the short term, with strong demand resilience driven by continuous growth in electricity generation [1] - The coal price is expected to maintain a fluctuating pattern, with coal companies showing strong profit sustainability and improved cash flow following balance sheet optimization [1] - The coal ETF (code: 515220) is the only coal ETF in the market, tracking the CSI Coal Index (code: 399998), which reflects the overall performance of listed companies involved in coal mining, processing, and sales [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "stronger than market" rating for the coal industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The price of thermal coal is approaching 600 RMB, indicating supply-side negative feedback. In May, coal imports continued to decrease, and domestic production saw a month-on-month decline. With daily consumption improving, destocking is expected to commence, leading to a rebound in coal prices. The report suggests increasing allocation to coal stocks that benefit from price elasticity, with long-term core stocks showing high dividend yields and significant value [5][6] - The coal industry is currently in a golden era due to the energy transformation, with strict capacity control under carbon neutrality policies and increasing safety and environmental regulations limiting overproduction. Supply is regionally differentiated, with production difficulties increasing in eastern regions and a concentration of domestic capacity in the west, raising supply costs. The position of coal as a primary energy source is unlikely to change in the short term, and despite weak macroeconomic conditions affecting demand, rigid supply and rising costs support coal price stability [5][6] Summary by Sections Thermal Coal - As of June 13, 2025, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price is 609 RMB/ton, unchanged week-on-week, with slight increases in Shanxi and Shaanxi production prices. The operating rate of coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia is 80.7%, down 0.8 percentage points week-on-week. Daily consumption at power plants has slightly increased, while coal inventories have decreased [3][4][5] - The long-term contract price for Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) is 669 RMB/ton, down 6.0 RMB/ton month-on-month and down 31.0% year-on-year [24] - The report highlights that the operating rates of coal mines in the three provinces (Shanxi, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia) have slightly decreased, with a total production of 62,296 million tons year-to-date, an increase of 5.6% year-on-year [36] Coking Coal - As of June 13, 2025, the price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1230 RMB/ton, down 40 RMB/ton week-on-week, with prices in Shanxi, Henan, and Anhui remaining stable. The operating rate of large coking plants is 79.3%, down 1.4 percentage points week-on-week [4][68] - The report notes that the average available days of coking coal in domestic independent coking plants is 9.7 days, down 1.02% [68]

Core Viewpoint - The coal market is currently stabilizing, with a potential recovery in coal prices expected as supply increases and demand decreases, particularly in the context of China Shenhua's (601088.SH) increased dividend payout for 2024 [1] Coal Market Overview - As of March 21, 2025, the price of Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal is 671 RMB/ton, down 10 RMB/ton week-on-week, indicating a significant drop in production prices [2] - The operating rate of coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia is 82.6%, up 0.7 percentage points week-on-week [2] - The methanol and urea operating rates are slightly down but remain historically high, with methanol at 85.3% (down 0.8 percentage points week-on-week) and urea at 87.1% (down 0.7 percentage points week-on-week) [2] Coking Coal Insights - As of March 21, the price of premium coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1380 RMB/ton, unchanged week-on-week, while prices in Shanxi have dropped significantly [3] - The operating rate of coking plants with capacities over 2 million tons is 76.4%, up 2.7 percentage points week-on-week [3] - The current energy transition and strict policies on capacity control are expected to keep coal in a favorable position, despite challenges in supply and production [3] Profitability and Cash Flow - Despite macroeconomic pressures and increased competition from renewable energy, coal prices are expected to remain high, supporting sustained profitability for coal companies [4] Investment Opportunities - Companies with strong resource endowments and stable performance, such as China Shenhua (601088.SH), Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225.SH), and China Coal Energy (601898.SH), are recommended for investment due to their high dividend ratios [5] - Companies benefiting from coal-electricity integration, like Xinji Energy (601918.SH) and Shaanxi Energy (001286.SZ), are also highlighted for their ability to mitigate cyclical fluctuations [5] - Firms with production growth potential and sensitivity to coal price changes, such as Shanxi Coal International (600546.SH) and Yanzhou Coal Mining (600188.SH), are suggested for investment [5] - Companies with globally scarce resources, like Huabei Mining (600985.SH) and Pingmei Shenma Energy (601666.SH), are also recommended due to their long-term supply constraints [5]