苹果周报：需求略有增加 苹果出库加快 228/210/172 银河大宗农产品 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 咨询从业证号：Z0014425 第一部分 逻辑分析及交易策略 内容摘要 ◼ 交易策略 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 ◼ 现货分析 ◼ 供给分析 ◼ 需求分析 苹果现货分析 栖霞一二级纸袋80#（元/斤） 洛川半商品纸袋70#（元/斤） 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1-1 1-14 1-27 2-9 2-22 3-7 3-20 4-2 4-15 4-28 5-11 5-24 6-6 6-19 7-2 7-15 7-28 8-10 8-23 9-5 9-18 10-1 10-14 10-27 11-9 11-22 12-5 12-18 12-31 栖霞一、二级纸袋80# 202 ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2024 年 01 月 05 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinas tock.com.cn 苹果日报 第一部分 市场信息 | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 今日价格 | 下一工作日价 | 涨跌 | 指标 | 今日价格 | 下一工作目价 | 涨跌 | | 吗 | | | | | | 够 | | | 富士苹果价格指数 | 109.01 | 108.70 | 0.31 | 洛川半商品纸袋70 | 4.20 | 4.20 | 0.00 | | 栖霞 一、二级纸袋 80 | 4.10 | 4.10 | 0.00 | 沂源纸袋70 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 0.00 | | 蓬莱 一、二级纸袋 80 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 0.00 | 6种水果平均批发价 | 7.93 | 7.92 | 0.01 | | 期货价格 | | | | | | | ...

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Type: Agricultural Products R & D Report - Apple Daily - Date: December 30, 2024 - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [1] Group 2: Market Information Spot Prices - Fuji Apple Price Index: Today's price is 109.01, next - working - day price is 108.70, with a decrease of 0.31 - 6 - fruit average wholesale price: Today's price is 7.83, next - working - day price is 7.95, with a decrease of 0.12 - Other apple varieties' prices remain unchanged [2] Futures Prices - AP01: Today's price is 9658, yesterday's close was 9587, with an increase of 71 - AP05: Today's price is 9200, yesterday's close was 9163, with an increase of 37 - AP10: Today's price is 8174, yesterday's close was 8107, with an increase of 67 [2] Price Differences - AP01 - AP05: Today's value is 458, previous trading - day value was 424, with an increase of 34 - AP05 - AP10: Today's value is 1026, previous trading - day value was 1056, with a decrease of 30 - AP10 - AP01: Today's value is - 1484, previous trading - day value was - 1480, with a decrease of 4 [2] Group 3: Market News and Views Trading Logic - This year, apple production decreased, the proportion of high - quality fruits is poor, storage is more difficult, and cold - storage inventory data is low. Cold - storage apple inventory peak is at a low level in the same period over the years, and apple quality is relatively poor. So, the effective inventory is likely to be low, and the apple fundamentals are strong. Although the recent market sales are average and the market is technically weak, considering the production issue, the downward space is relatively limited [5] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Expected to fluctuate within a short - term range - Arbitrage: Go long on AP01 and short on AP10 - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [8] Market Data - As of December 24, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas of China was 7.4404 million tons, a decrease of 89,400 tons from last week, and the inventory - reduction speed is lower than that of last year - In November 2025, the import volume of fresh apples was 2500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.19% and a year - on - year increase of 48.76%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import volume was 113,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.71% - In November 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 121,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.28% and a year - on - year increase of 12.42% [7] Market Conditions - The apple market in the producing areas has changed little, cold - storage transactions are stable, mainly low - price goods. Traders are packaging their own high - quality goods and rarely purchasing from outside. Merchants in various producing areas have started to package Spring Festival gift boxes. The market arrivals are stable, and the mainstream prices are stable - In Luochuan, Shaanxi, the mainstream transaction price of semi - commercial apples above 70 in cold storage is 3.8 - 4.2 yuan per catty. The number of buyers is increasing, and farmers' willingness to sell is rising [7]

——有重新转强的趋势 边舒扬（投资咨询资格证号：Z0012647） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月28日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 南华期货苹果产业周报 1.1 核心矛盾 当前影响苹果价格走势的核心矛盾有以下几点： 1、01合约最终会以什么价格结束？目前的基本面比较明朗，就是今年苹果整体有所减产，质量明显下降，库 存果中也有大量次果、果脯果汁果等。对标盘面的可交割果少是支撑盘面持续上涨的主要原因。从目前的趋 势看，供给的缩量给于的盘面价格只可能越来越高，因此01合约的价格最终还是将要不断创新高，也是有可 能达到12合约的水准，甚至超过。尽管有空头亏钱交货，但是否能够达到合格要求呢？因此01合约会继续走 交割逻辑，而不是当下淡季消费逻辑。 2、春节旺季消费好还是差？后续决定苹果价格因素将从供给转为消费。由于近几年都出现过远期合约坍塌的 情况，主要还是因为消费不及预期导致，由于水果类型越来越多，且消费者偏好出现改变，苹果的消费结构 出现较大变化，因此传统的消费旺季有时候也可能会出现旺季不旺的局面。由于大部分的苹果质量下降，市 场还是存在担心劣币驱逐良币的情况在未来会发生。 ∗ ...

农产品日报 2024 年 12 月 24 日 期货从业证号： F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0014425 联系方式： 研究所 农产品研发报告 研究员：刘倩楠 :liuqiannan_qh@chinas tock.com.cn 苹果日报 第一部分 市场信息 | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 今日价格 | 下一工作日份 | 涨跌 | 指标 | 今日价格 | 下一工作目价 | 涨跌 | | 相 | | | | | | 格 | | | 富士苹果价格指数 | 109.01 | 108.70 | 0.31 | 洛川半商品纸袋70 | 4.20 | 4.20 | 0.00 | | 栖霞 一、二级纸袋 80 | 4.10 | 4.10 | 0.00 | 沂源纸袋70 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 0.00 | | 蓬莱 一、二级纸袋 80 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 0.00 | 6种水果平均批发价 | 7.79 | 7.83 | -0.04 | | 期货价格 | | | | | | | ...

联系方式： 研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2024 年 12 月 22 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0014425 :liuqiannan_qh@chinas tock.com.cn 苹果日报 第一部分 市场信息 | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 今日价格 | 上一工作日价 | 涨跌 | 指标 | 今日价格 | 下一工作日价 | 涨跌 | | 格 | | | | | | 格 | | | 富士苹果价格指数 | 109.01 | 108.70 | 0.31 | 洛川半商品纸袋70 | 4.20 | 4.20 | 0.00 | | 栖霞 一、二级纸袋 80 | 4.10 | 4.10 | 0.00 | 沂源纸袋70 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 0.00 | | 蓬莱 一、二级纸袋 80 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 0.00 | 6种水果平均批发价 | 7.74 | 7.68 | 0.06 | | 期货价格 | | | | | | | ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2024 年 12 月 16 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinas tock.com.cn 苹果日报 第一部分 市场信息 | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 今日价格 | 下一工作日份 | 涨跌 | 指标 | 今日价格 | 下一工作日份 | 涨跌 | | 格 | | | | | | 格 | | | 富士苹果价格指数 | 108.24 | 108.99 | -0.75 | 洛川半商品纸袋70 | 4.20 | 4.20 | 0.00 | | 栖霞一、二级纸袋 80 | 4.10 | 4.10 | 0.00 | 沂源纸袋70 | 2.80 | 2.80 | 0.00 | | 蓬莱一、二级纸袋 80 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 0.00 | 6种水果平均批发价 | 7.53 | 7.57 | -0.04 | | 期货价格 | | | | | | | ...

苹果周报：库存低需求一般 果价高位震荡 银河大宗农产品 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 咨询从业证号：Z0014425 内容摘要 ◼ 交易策略 GALAXY FUTURES 1 第一部分 逻辑分析及交易策略 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 ◼ 现货分析 ◼ 供给分析 ◼ 需求分析 苹果现货分析 栖霞一二级纸袋80#（元/斤） 洛川半商品纸袋70#（元/斤） 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1-1 1-14 1-27 2-9 2-22 3-7 3-20 4-2 4-15 4-28 5-11 5-24 6-6 6-19 7-2 7-15 7-28 8-10 8-23 9-5 9-18 10-1 10-14 10-27 11-9 11-22 12-5 12-18 12-31 栖霞一、二级纸袋80# 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 1 2 3 4 5 ...

农产品日报 2024 年 12 月 11 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F3013727 投资咨询证号： 研究所 农产品研发报告 Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinas tock.com.cn 苹果日报 第一部分 市场信息 | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 下一工作日价 指标 | 今日价格 | | 涨跌 | 指标 | 今日价格 | 下一工作日价 | 张跌 | | 馆 | | | | | | 相 | | | 富士苹果价格指数 | 109.06 | 107.91 | 1.15 | 洛川半商品纸袋70 | 4.20 | 4.20 | 0.00 | | 栖霞一、二级纸袋 80 | 4.10 | 4.10 | 0.00 | 沂源纸袋70 | 2.80 | 2.80 | 0.00 | | 蓬莱一、二级纸袋 80 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 0.00 | 6种水果平均批发价 | 7.51 | 7.51 | 0.00 | | 期货价格 | | | | | | | | ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2024 年 12 月 09 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinas tock.com.cn 苹果日报 第一部分 市场信息 | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 今日价格 | 下一工作日价 | 涨跌 | 指标 | 今日价格 | 上一工作日价 | 涨跌 | | 格 | | | | | | 格 | | | 富士苹果价格指数 | 109.06 | 107.91 | 1.15 | 洛川半商品纸袋70 | 4.20 | 4.20 | 0.00 | | 栖霞 一、二级纸袋 80 | 4.10 | 4.10 | 0.00 | 沂源纸袋70 | 2.80 | 2.80 | 0.00 | | 蓬莱 一、二级纸袋 80 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 0.00 | 6种水果平均批发价 | 7.34 | 7.51 | -0.17 | | 期货价格 | | | | | | | ...