（原标题：世界银行将加纳增长率 上调至4.3%） 据加纳"乐在线"10月8日报道，世界银行预计到2025年年底加纳经济增长率将 达到4.3%，高于之前预测的3.9%。 2025年第二季度加纳经济增长6.3%，主要受服务业推动，服务业增长9.9%， 对GDP的贡献最大。世行预测加纳的增长前景持续向好，2026年和2027年预计将分 别增长4.6%和4.8%。撒哈拉以南非洲经济仍保持韧性，预计2025年增长率将从 2024年的3.5%达到3.8%。这种加速增长反映出尽管全球不确定性仍然存在，但通 胀压力有所缓解，投资出现温和复苏。然而，下行风险依然存在，包括全球贸易政 策不确定性、投资者兴趣下降以及外部融资和发展援助资金减少。 这些压力并非加纳独有，撒哈拉以南非洲的几个经济体都将在2026年面临债务 到期高峰，可能会提高区域风险溢价。 电力供应同样成为重要压力，频繁停电的企业由于运营中断、自发电成本高以及资 本效率降低，生产率较低。稳定的电力供应和有竞争力的能源价格对于维持工业生 产力和吸引新的投资至关重要。 世界银行预测，到2025年底加纳通货膨胀率将达到15.4%。而加官方数据显 示，2025年9月通胀率已降 ...

巴西《经济价值报》9月19日消息，因投资者对美总统特朗普的经济政策缺乏信任，美元持续走 弱。Valor Data数据显示，今年以来至9月17日，巴西雷亚尔兑美元名义涨幅（未扣除通胀因素）达 16.18%，升值幅度居全球第五。根据该数据，全球33种货币中仅4种贬值，升值幅度排名前三的分别为 俄罗斯卢布（+36.6%）、匈牙利福林（+19.96%）和瑞典克朗（+18.29%），跌幅最大的则是阿根廷比 索（-30.05%）、土耳其里拉（-14.45%）和印度卢比（-2.98%）。 （原标题：今年以来巴西雷亚尔上涨16%，升值幅度居全球第五） ...

Group 1 - The Norwegian central bank's upcoming monetary policy meeting on September 18 faces a complex decision-making environment due to a disconnect between recent economic data and policy signals [1] - Norway's inflation rate remains above the central bank's target of 2%, and wage growth expectations for 2025 have exceeded the previous forecast of 4.5%, indicating an accelerating economic expansion [1] - The current policy interest rate of 4.25% is not considered "overly tight" and aligns with the current economic conditions, suggesting that concerns about "overly tight" policy may lack basis [1] Group 2 - The Norwegian krone has appreciated by 3.65% against the euro since early August and has risen 5.5% since April, which typically has a dampening effect on inflation [1] - However, the effects of currency appreciation have not yet fully manifested in price data, indicating that exchange rate movements alone do not provide sufficient justification for a rate cut [1] - Market participants believe that the central bank's core policy dilemma lies in balancing persistent inflation pressures with the potential deflationary effects of the krone's appreciation, leading to a preference for maintaining a hawkish stance and delaying rate cuts [2]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Foreign Exchange (FX) Market - **Key Focus**: Analysis of various currencies including CNY (Chinese Yuan), USD (US Dollar), EUR (Euro), INR (Indian Rupee), Scandi FX (Swedish Krona and Norwegian Krone), and CHF (Swiss Franc) [1][7][9][10][15] Core Insights and Arguments CNY (Chinese Yuan) - Recent strength in CNY is attributed to policy push rather than market pressure, with policymakers moving the fixing stronger despite market conditions [1] - CNY is considered significantly undervalued, comparable to the "China shock" period in the mid-2000s, supported by large export market share gains and a surge in the current account surplus [1] - Continued adjustments in CNY are expected, impacting FX markets and reducing the burden on the Euro to drive Dollar depreciation [1] USD (US Dollar) - The broad Dollar has been range-bound, but factors leading to its depreciation remain active, including a softening labor market and subpar growth expectations [7] - A significant rise in unemployment above 4.40% could impact rates-sensitive currency pairs like EUR/USD and USD/JPY [7] - Global asset allocators are likely to seek ways to hedge FX risks due to Dollar dominance, influenced by institutional governance concerns [8] EUR (Euro) - Political developments in France, including a confidence vote, are unlikely to alter the fundamental outlook for the Euro, despite potential volatility [9] - The Euro is expected to strengthen, with other currencies likely to outperform after the Euro's initial leadership in the Dollar's decline [9] INR (Indian Rupee) - The outlook for INR is clouded by new tariffs on Indian exports to the US, leading to heavy equity outflows and a return to all-time highs for USD/INR [10] - The effective tariff rate is estimated at around 32%, impacting export forecasts and current account projections [10] Scandi FX (NOK and SEK) - Both NOK and SEK are expected to strengthen against the Dollar, supported by global trends and Dollar hedging programs [10] - The upcoming Norwegian general election poses a risk for NOK, particularly regarding potential changes to the sovereign wealth fund's currency channeling policies [10] CHF (Swiss Franc) - A recommendation to short EUR/CHF is based on the belief that US importers will struggle to substitute Swiss goods, thus limiting necessary currency adjustments [15] - The risk-reward for this trade has become less favorable, but further movement towards the target of 0.93 is still anticipated [15] Additional Important Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic factors and policy changes in shaping currency valuations and market dynamics [1][7][9][10][15] - The analysis includes forecasts for various currency pairs over different time horizons, indicating expected movements and potential misalignments with fundamentals [21][23] - The report highlights the need for investors to consider multiple factors in their investment decisions, including geopolitical risks and economic indicators [3][27] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook of the FX market.

Group 1: Exchange Rate Influences - Exchange rates are influenced by various factors, including economic growth, inflation levels, and interest rate differentials [1] - Strong economic growth attracts foreign investment, increasing demand for the domestic currency and leading to appreciation [1] - High inflation relative to other countries typically results in depreciation of the domestic currency due to decreased purchasing power [1] - Political stability and government policies significantly impact exchange rates, with unstable environments leading to depreciation and stable ones promoting appreciation [1] - Central banks influence exchange rates through monetary and fiscal policies, including interest rate adjustments and open market operations [1] Group 2: Foreign Exchange Trading Methods - Spot foreign exchange trading is the most basic form, where transactions are settled within two business days at current market rates [2] - Forward foreign exchange trading allows parties to agree on a future exchange rate and amount, helping to hedge against currency fluctuations [2] - Foreign exchange futures are standardized contracts traded on exchanges, offering higher liquidity and regulation compared to forwards [2] - Foreign exchange options provide buyers the right to buy or sell currency at a predetermined rate within a specified period, offering flexible risk management tools [2] - The foreign exchange market is the largest and most active financial market globally, with major trading centers in London, New York, and Tokyo, enabling 24-hour trading [2]

Group 1 - Citigroup upgraded the investment ratings of CK Infrastructure and Power Assets from "Neutral" to "Buy" [1] - The target price for CK Infrastructure was raised from HKD 49 to HKD 62, while Power Assets' target price increased from HKD 48 to HKD 58, driven by potential merger benefits and the appreciation of GBP and AUD against HKD [1] - The stock rating for Hongkong Electric was downgraded from "Buy" to "Neutral" due to a 17% increase in its stock price over the past six months, with its target price adjusted from HKD 6.1 to HKD 6.6 [1] Group 2 - The forecasted dividend yields for 2025 are 4.7% for CK Infrastructure, 5.5% for Power Assets, and 5.2% for Hongkong Electric [1]

Group 1 - The Brazilian real appreciated by 1% against the US dollar in spot trading [1]

Core Viewpoint - The New Taiwan Dollar has appreciated by 0.5%, with the exchange rate against the US Dollar reported at 29.308 [1] Group 1 - The appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar indicates a strengthening of the currency in the foreign exchange market [1]

Core Viewpoint - Jefferies Group analysts predict that the Singapore dollar may appreciate to parity with the US dollar within the next five years, indicating a potential 28% increase in value [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Currency Performance** - Since the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates in March 2022, the Singapore dollar has appreciated against nearly all major currencies, reinforcing its status as the "Swiss franc of Asia" [1] - **Investment Appeal** - Singapore's bond yields remain attractive to conservative funds focused on wealth preservation, contributing to the positive outlook for the Singapore dollar [1] - **Current Exchange Rate Trends** - Year-to-date, the Singapore dollar has already risen over 6% against the US dollar [1]

Group 1 - Traders are seeking alternatives to the euro, such as the Chinese yuan, Australian dollar, and South Korean won, to capitalize on expectations of further dollar weakness [1] - The volume of dollar-yuan options trading reached a one-month high, with significant demand for call options indicating a bearish outlook on the dollar [1] - Interest in Korean won call options is increasing, with hedge funds anticipating a potential rise similar to the Taiwanese dollar's surge earlier this year [1] Group 2 - The South Korean won has been supported by a weaker dollar and gradual appreciation of the yuan, with further appreciation potential without threatening export dynamics [2] - Interest in the Australian dollar is growing, with hedge funds increasingly taking long positions against the US dollar in recent weeks [2] - Sentiment towards the Japanese yen has cooled, with reduced interest in long positions following its decline in May and June [2]