在1月12日的外汇市场，日元汇率一度贬值至1美元兑158.20日元附近，创出2025年1月以来新低 受日本首相高市早苗考虑解散众议院消息的影响，以积极财政和低利率局面长期化为前提的新"高市交 易"正在加强。1月12日日元一度贬值至1美元兑158.20日元附近，创出2025年1月以来的新低…… 日元在外汇市场上再次出现贬值趋势。在1月12日的外汇市场（日本因节假日而休市），日元汇率一度 贬值至1美元兑158.20日元附近，创出2025年1月以来的新低。受日本首相高市早苗考虑解散众议院消息 的影响，以积极财政和低利率局面长期化为前提的新"高市交易"正在加强。另一方面，特朗普政府对美 联储（FRB）的压力加强，出现了资金流向美元以外货币的动向。 海外投机者2025年多次进行押注日元和美元贬值的"货币贬值交易"（debasement trade）。虽然因为年末 持仓量减少而多次失去强劲势头，但火种一直保持了下来。此时突然刮起的日本的众议院解散风被认为 是"以日元贬值为前提的货币贬值交易的绝佳驱动力"（亚洲对冲基金经理）。 日元汇率如果突破作为2025年1月低点的158日元区间后段，属于重要关口的160日元将进入视野。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，新兴市场资产周一呈现上涨态势，当日市场伴随美元走弱及"卖出美国"交易重新抬头的显著特征。此前，美国司法部曾以刑事起诉相要 挟，向美联储发出传票。 多数新兴市场货币兑美元普遍走高，其中通常被视为风险偏好指标的墨西哥比索与南非兰特表现尤为突出，领涨市场。与此同时，彭博美元现货指数下跌 0.2%，按收盘价计算有望创下自12月23日以来的最大单日跌幅。此前，特朗普政府对美联储的攻势已进一步升级。 中国工信部部长李乐成接受采访时称，中国政府将加快数字技术的融合与应用，这为亚洲市场的人工智能主题投资热情再添一把火。 纽约梅隆银行高级策略师Geoffrey Yu表示："在私人及公共项目长期配置意愿的支撑下，人工智能主题依旧相对稳固。" 其他方面，投资者正密切关注伊朗局势——该国政府若被推翻，或将引发全球地缘政治格局重构与能源市场波动。 美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，美联储已收到大陪审团传票，对方以刑事诉讼相威胁;他指出，此举旨在削弱美联储"基于证据和经济状况设定利率"的独立 性。这一消息对美元形成下行压力，促使交易者纷纷转向黄金、白银等避险资产，推动两者价格双双升至历史新高。 纽约BBVA全球外汇策略主 ...

转自：新华财经 新华财经约翰内斯堡1月8日电（白舸 杭泽波）据彭博社7日报道，受兰特走强及金属价格大幅上涨提振，南非股市市值升至2019年以来最高水平。数据显 示，富时／约翰内斯堡非洲全股指数成分股总市值6日突破5000亿美元，其市值规模已超过挪威、马来西亚和土耳其等市场。 2025年，约翰内斯堡股指表现强劲，全年上涨38%，创2005年以来最佳年度表现，其中贵金属及矿业股成为主要推动力量。同期，南非兰特兑美元升值 14%，使股指以美元计价的涨幅扩大至57%。 进入2026年，南非股市涨势仍在延续，指数年初以来已上涨逾2%。兰特随金价继续走强，本周二升至1美元兑16.31兰特，为三年多来最强水平。法国兴 业银行策略师指出，兰特下一目标区间或在16.10至15.90之间，这将继续支撑南非股票的美元回报。 分析人士认为，大宗商品价格，尤其是黄金的持续上涨，将为南非股市提供进一步支撑。 编辑：罗浩 ...

格隆汇1月7日｜南非兰特走强以及金属价格飙升，推动南非基准股指市值升至2019年以来最高水平。富 时/约翰内斯堡证券交易所非洲全股指数总市值升破5000亿美元，超过了挪威、马来西亚和土耳其等国 去年同期的市场规模。约翰内斯堡股市去年上涨38%，创下自2005年以来的最佳年度表现，贵金属和矿 业股指数领涨。兰特兑美元升值14%，使股指以美元计的涨幅扩大至57%。今年以来，该指数已上涨逾 2%，兰特也随着金价走高而继续升值。周二，南非兰特一度升至1美元兑16.31兰特，创逾三年新高。 贝莱德国际主题投资主管埃维·汉布罗表示，大宗商品可能继续为股市提供支撑，随着货币购买力持续 走弱，金价有望延续涨势。 ...

外资行美债&汇率 2026 展望汇总 Contents | | 一、美债 2 | | --- | --- | | • | 美联储新领导层将如何重塑 2026 年收益率曲线?—巴克莱 2 | | • | 2026 年美国利率展望:张力与转型—汇丰 5 | | • | 2026 年美债展望:感受每一天的路径，你走哪条路?—摩根大通 8 | | • | 2026 年利率展望:全球固定收益市场分析—德意志银行 11 | | • | 固定收益 2026 年展望：更具韧性，利差为王；持续的经济韧性；财政刺 | | | 激，两次降息—美银美林 13 | | • | 2026 年核心美债供需展望:明年核心债券净供给将下降—美银美林 18 | | • | 美国利率周报:2026 年展望--宽松之战—花旗 21 | | | 二、汇率 27 | | • | 高盛 2026 年全球外汇市场展望 27 | | • | 亚洲货币:年末短暂喘息，2026 年恐重陷疲软—巴克莱 32 | | • | 2026 年货币展望：权衡利弊—汇丰 37 | | • | 中国本地市场 2026 年展望：看好人民币汇率，利率持中性态度—摩根大通 | | ...

·假期将至美指走势维持稳定 ·中金：人民币汇率并未明显低估 ·CME白银隐含波动率飙升至极端高位 ·日本央行会议意见摘要暗示将进一步加息 ·交易员警惕干预风险泰铢创5月以来最大跌幅 ·美元走弱叠加国内政局稳定南非兰特有望录得2009年以来最大年度涨幅 【机构分析】 ·机构分析认为，在清淡的假期行情中，由于缺乏新的催化剂，美元兑一篮子货币汇率持稳。本周经济 日历上重要数据不多，且多个市场将因元旦休市。随着月末和年末临近，美元仓位可能出现一些调整。 美元指数现基本持平，报98.01。数据显示，美元指数年内迄今已下跌近10%。 ·中金公司最新研报指出，汇率走势可能仍与金融周期走势有一定关系。金融周期视角下，中金认为人 民币汇率未明显低估，不过中国股市表现亮眼，叠加美元走弱，人民币汇率阶段性温和回升也有其合理 性。 ·芝商所（CME）白银波动率指数（CVOL）日内一直处于80上方。该指数历史上最高为96.20，最低为 13.97，正常情况在25-35之间波动，当指数>60时，表明白银的波动率已达到极端状态。从12月26日开 始，CME白银波动率指数就突破60，并一路走高，在12月28日开盘后更是跳空上涨至80上方。当 ...

Group 1 - The Japanese government is concerned about the recent one-sided and sudden fluctuations in the foreign exchange market, particularly after the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting, indicating a potential need for intervention if the yen continues to weaken towards the 160 level [1] - Following the Bank of Japan's decision to maintain interest rates, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond rose by 7.5 basis points to 2.095%, the highest level since February 1999, while the 2-year bond yield increased by 3 basis points to 1.12%, the highest since 1997 [1] - Nomura Securities reports that Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is becoming aware that the continuous depreciation of the yen could impact his political stability, suggesting that Japanese authorities may be close to taking strong action [4] Group 2 - Market participants acknowledge the possibility of further interest rate hikes but do not fully accept a rapid or aggressive rate increase path, indicating a cautious approach to trading the yen [5] - Speculative positions in the dollar-yen pair have been affected by the U.S. government shutdown, with data showing a significant decline in long positions on the yen, approaching neutral levels [5] - Analysts believe that while the Japanese Ministry of Finance can temporarily halt the yen's decline by selling dollars, this strategy may not be sustainable, especially without a shift towards a more hawkish tone from the Bank of Japan [5]

Core Insights - Emerging market carry trades are expected to remain effective through 2026, driven by low borrowing costs from central banks in developed economies and sustained interest rate differentials between developed and emerging markets [1][3]. Group 1: Performance of Emerging Market Carry Trades - The Bloomberg Emerging Market Carry Index has achieved a year-to-date return of 16.71%, the highest since 2009, when it reached 19.89% [3]. - In the previous five years, four years recorded negative returns, with rates of -2.84%, -5.02%, -0.52%, and -3.17% for 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2024 respectively [3]. - High benchmark interest rates in countries like Brazil, Mexico, and South Africa have resulted in three-month implied yields of 13.4%, 7.5%, and 6.6%, significantly outperforming developed economies [3]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Strategies - The trajectory of the U.S. economy is seen as a key factor for the continued strong performance of emerging market currencies, with expectations of a slowdown encouraging the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy [4]. - Investment firms like Invesco and Goldman Sachs recommend increasing short positions on the U.S. dollar against currencies such as the Brazilian real and South African rand [4]. - Neuberger Berman highlights that reduced volatility in the foreign exchange market and a weak dollar create favorable conditions for emerging market carry trades [5][6]. Group 3: Volatility Concerns - There is ongoing debate about whether low foreign exchange volatility can be maintained, as adverse currency movements could quickly erase gains [7]. - Current indicators from JPMorgan show emerging market currency volatility is near a five-year low, but concerns remain about potential increases due to factors like U.S. midterm elections and Federal Reserve policy divergences [7]. - Vanguard Group believes that market disruptions from events like Trump's tariff policies are diminishing, suggesting a stable environment for emerging market currencies in 2026 [7].

Group 1 - Emerging market carry trades are expected to continue thriving in 2026, supported by reduced forex market volatility and a weak US dollar [1] - A key indicator for this strategy has shown a return of approximately 17% this year, marking the highest increase since 2009 [1] - Major asset management firms and banks anticipate that the interest rate gap between developed and emerging markets will persist, with the Federal Reserve and other wealthy nations' central banks likely to maintain low borrowing costs [1] Group 2 - Emerging market stocks, bonds, and currencies have seen significant increases this year, with countries like Brazil and Colombia experiencing currency appreciation of over 13% against the US dollar [3] - The performance of these markets is closely tied to the US economic outlook, with investors hoping for weak growth to encourage further easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve [3] - Goldman Sachs has highlighted the attractiveness of shorting the US dollar against currencies like the Brazilian real and South African rand, with a basket of these trades yielding approximately 20% returns this year [3] Group 3 - Investors are assessing whether forex volatility will remain low, as adverse currency movements can quickly erase months of gains [6] - Current market expectations for volatility are low, with a JPMorgan indicator nearing a five-year low, raising concerns among market participants [6] - Despite potential factors that could increase currency volatility, such as US midterm elections and central bank policy divergences, Vanguard Group expects that market disruptions will remain controlled into 2026 [6]

Core Insights - The article discusses the relationship between labor productivity, the Balassa-Samuelson effect, and exchange rates, using real GDP per capita as a measure of labor productivity to assess currency valuation and future exchange rate trends [1][2][3]. Group 1: Balassa-Samuelson Effect and Real Effective Exchange Rates - The Balassa-Samuelson effect indicates that "lagging" economies experience a continuous appreciation of their real effective exchange rates as they catch up to "developed" economies [1][3]. - From 2005 to 2015, the real effective exchange rate of the Chinese yuan appreciated, supporting the notion of the Balassa-Samuelson effect, with predictions of further appreciation in 2025 and 2026 based on OECD forecasts [1][4]. - A comparison of 15 economies' labor productivity data for 2024 reveals that the Indonesian rupiah, Swiss franc, and South African rand are overvalued by over 20%, while the Korean won, Japanese yen, and Canadian dollar are undervalued by over 20% [6][9]. Group 2: Future Exchange Rate Predictions - The analysis predicts that in the next year, the US dollar will appreciate slightly against the euro and pound, weaken against the yuan initially, and then strengthen, while it will weaken against the yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, New Zealand dollar, and Korean won [2][10]. - The euro and pound are expected to weaken moderately against the yuan, while the yen, Korean won, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, and New Zealand dollar may rebound against the yuan after short-term pressure [2][23]. - The analysis suggests that the yuan is slightly overvalued by 3.45% relative to labor productivity, indicating that the appreciation of the yuan in 2025 and 2026 may be limited [6][9]. Group 3: Labor Productivity and Currency Valuation - The article emphasizes that the Balassa-Samuelson effect provides a theoretical framework linking labor productivity to real exchange rates, which is crucial for medium to long-term exchange rate assessments [4][10]. - The analysis of labor productivity and actual effective exchange rates shows that the yuan's valuation is close to equilibrium, with slight overvaluation, while other currencies like the Canadian dollar and Japanese yen show significant undervaluation [6][9]. - The relationship between labor productivity and bilateral exchange rates indicates that the yuan may face appreciation pressures in the coming years, particularly against currencies like the euro and pound [23][24].