2026.03. 05 与此同时，亚洲主要货币普遍承压。日元、韩元、新加坡元等货币近期均出现不同程度贬值。Wind 数据显示，截至3月5日午间交易时段，美元对日元升至约157附近，美元对韩元约1468，美元对新 加坡元约1.278。市场普遍认为，在全球避险情绪升温背景下，美元流动性需求上升，使得亚洲货币 整体承压。 美元指数近期持续拉升，3月5日，该指数位于99附近。一位驻新加坡的银行外汇交易员此前对记者 表示，近期市场的核心逻辑是"避险+油价"。"只要中东局势没有明显缓和，市场就倾向于增持美元头 寸，亚洲货币短期很难摆脱波动。" 本文字数：2858，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第一财 经 陈君君 近期随着中东局势持续紧张，全球外汇市场波动加剧。 人民币对美元中间价3月5日上调至6.9007元，美元指数持续逼近99关口；与此同时，日元、韩元、 新加坡元等亚洲货币普遍承压，而加拿大元、挪威克朗等资源型经济体货币表现相对稳健。机构分析 认为，地缘政治风险、油价冲击及全球央行政策预期变化正共同推动汇市重新定价，短期避险情绪或 将继续主导市场走势。 全球主要货币震荡 3月5日，中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布， ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs analyst Danny Suwanapruti highlighted that the Malaysian Ringgit is the "most constructive" currency in Asia, supported by strong economic growth, stable political conditions, economic diversification, and increasing foreign investment, particularly in the data center sector [1] Economic Outlook - Malaysia's exports are expected to benefit from the artificial intelligence investment theme, while the US-Malaysia trade agreement reduces trade uncertainty [1] - The country's economic growth rate is projected to slow to 4.5% by 2026, down from a previous forecast of 4.9% [1] - Fiscal consolidation is on track, with a deficit target set at 3.5% of GDP [1] - Inflation rate is anticipated to accelerate from 1.5% last year to 1.8% [1] - The Malaysian central bank is likely to maintain the policy rate at 2.75% until the end of 2026 [1]

Group 1 - The recent decline of the US dollar index has raised concerns about "de-dollarization" and geopolitical risks, prompting market attention [1][15] - Bloomberg Industry Research predicts that the Chinese yuan and Malaysian ringgit could generate excess returns for Asian currency portfolios due to structural advantages and reduced correlation with the dollar [1][15] - The relative performance of low-interest and high-interest Asian currencies will depend on the timing of the "de-dollarization" trend [1][15] Group 2 - Zhao Zhixuan, Bloomberg's Chief Forex and Rates Strategist for Asia, suggests that the dollar index may need to fall below 90 to trigger policy intervention, indicating further downside potential from current levels [1][15] - The yuan is expected to be the most favored currency this year, with the USD/CNY exchange rate potentially challenging the 6.7 to 6.8 level [1][11] - The dollar faces multiple structural challenges, including portfolio rotation away from US assets, ongoing arbitrage trading, and expectations of a weak dollar policy [1][15] Group 3 - European institutions, including Danish pension funds, have begun to exit the US Treasury market, with China's holdings of US debt at their lowest level since 2008 [2][16] - The trend of reducing US Treasury holdings is likely to continue, but a complete sell-off is unrealistic due to the lack of alternative markets with similar depth and liquidity [2][16] - The future may see a coexistence of multiple reserve currencies and regionalization of currency use, although the dollar's leading position is unlikely to be replaced in the short term [2][16] Group 4 - Concerns over Japan's "monetary fiscalization" have led to selling pressure on its long-term bonds, which may transmit pressure to global bond markets [2][24] - The Japanese yen is expected to strengthen against the dollar this year, with a reasonable equilibrium exchange rate around 129 [2][24][25] - Other Asian currencies are expected to show divergence, with low-interest currencies like the Thai baht, Malaysian ringgit, and Singapore dollar benefiting from a declining dollar cycle [2][12] Group 5 - The yuan is viewed as the most promising currency this year, with expectations of steady appreciation against both the dollar and a basket of currencies [2][11][26] - Factors supporting the yuan's appreciation include favorable policies, interest rate differentials, and capital inflows from the stock market [2][11][26] - The Thai baht, Malaysian ringgit, and Singapore dollar are also expected to strengthen, while high-interest currencies like the Philippine peso, Indonesian rupiah, and Indian rupee may weaken due to fiscal stability concerns [2][12][29]

Core Viewpoint - Stephen Jen warns that a new cycle of dollar depreciation may have begun, and the market is unprepared for it [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - The dollar experienced its largest single-day drop since the imposition of tariffs last year, with the Bloomberg Dollar Index falling 1.2% to its lowest level in nearly four years [1] - Trump's comments led to significant volatility in the foreign exchange market, with the euro and pound reaching their strongest levels since 2021, and the Swiss franc hitting its highest level since 2015 [1] - The decline in the dollar has prompted concerns among overseas investors about selling off dollar assets, further exacerbated by previous threats of tariffs and unpredictable Federal Reserve policies [1] Group 2: Analyst Insights - Analysts note that many forex analysts are accustomed to a strong dollar and a robust U.S. economy, making them ill-prepared for a scenario where the dollar weakens while the economy remains strong [2] - Anthony Doyle from Pinnacle Investment Management suggests that the lack of concern from those who typically support the dollar indicates a weakening support for the currency [2] Group 3: Market Indicators - A market indicator from JPMorgan shows that the risk reversal index for the dollar against major currencies has dropped to its lowest level since June, indicating increased demand for hedging against dollar weakness [3] - The OECD data suggests that the dollar is overvalued against all G-10 currencies except the Swiss franc, with the yen and euro being particularly undervalued [3] Group 4: Diverging Opinions - Not all analysts agree that Trump's comments signal a long-term decline for the dollar; some believe the government is more focused on seeing the appreciation of currencies like the yuan and yen [4] - Robert Kaplan from Goldman Sachs warns that a prolonged dollar weakness could pose risks to the U.S. economy, emphasizing the importance of currency stability over export benefits given the current high debt levels [4]

Group 1: Dollar Weakness and Market Impact - The weakening of the dollar is reshaping global market dynamics, leading to a shift in asset allocation driven by "devaluation trades" across various sectors including precious metals and emerging market currencies [1][2] - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell nearly 3% over four trading days, reaching a four-year low, primarily due to market concerns over the unpredictable policies of the Trump administration and ongoing criticism of the Federal Reserve [2] - The dollar index showed a slight rebound of 0.2%, currently at 96.4, but remains in a weak range [5][16] Group 2: Precious Metals Performance - Gold prices surged past $5200 per ounce, marking a historical high and a cumulative increase of approximately 20% this year, while silver prices have skyrocketed over 50% [1][11] - The current bull market in precious metals is attracting investors away from currencies and sovereign bonds towards hard assets, amid concerns over fiscal deficits [11][15] Group 3: Industrial Metals Strength - Industrial metals are experiencing a strong start in 2026, with aluminum prices rising 1.2% to $3246.50 per ton, reaching the highest level since April 2022, while copper and zinc also saw increases of 1.4% and 1.7% respectively [12][15] - Goldman Sachs has raised its aluminum price forecast, citing strong price performance and sustained bullish sentiment among investors [15] Group 4: Asian Currency Market - Emerging Asian currencies reached their highest levels since July last year, driven by the "dollar devaluation trade," with the MSCI Emerging Market Currency Index hitting a record high [16] - The Korean won and Malaysian ringgit led the gains, benefiting from the dollar's weakness and a recovery in growth, particularly in the technology sector [1][16]

Group 1 - The US dollar experienced its worst week in nearly eight months, declining 1.7% against a basket of major currencies due to domestic and international policy uncertainties [1] - The Japanese yen strengthened against the US dollar, rising nearly 1%, while the South Korean won increased by 1.4%, marking its largest gain in over a month [1] - The Malaysian ringgit reached its highest level since 2018, driven by optimism surrounding artificial intelligence and domestic economic growth [1] Group 2 - Since Prime Minister Fumio Kishida took office, the yen has depreciated over 5% against the dollar, raising concerns about Japan's fiscal health and debt sustainability [2] - Kishida announced plans for tax cuts and increased spending, which have intensified market fears regarding Japan's financial situation [2] - Japanese officials have indicated they are closely monitoring exchange rate fluctuations and may intervene in the currency market if necessary [2][3]

Group 1 - The Malaysian Ringgit has reached its highest level in over seven years, driven by optimism related to the artificial intelligence supply chain and national growth prospects [1] - On Monday, the Ringgit appreciated by 0.8% against the US dollar, reaching 3.9750 Ringgit per dollar, the strongest level since June 2018 [1] - Gama Asset Management SA forecasts that the Ringgit will strengthen to 3.9 Ringgit per dollar this quarter [1] Group 2 - The robust domestic demand and potentially strong inbound tourism are expected to sustain Malaysia's growth momentum this year [1] - The rapid expansion of the data center industry is creating new opportunities and attracting investments [1] - Leonard Kwan from UOB Group highlights the Ringgit as the most favorable currency in Asian emerging markets due to its abundant energy resources and strong tourism performance [3] Group 3 - The Ringgit has outperformed other currencies in Asia since January, exceeding analysts' forecasts for the first quarter [3] - Factors such as technology exports, foreign direct investment, and the Bank Negara Malaysia's decision to maintain interest rates are expected to help the Ringgit outperform its Southeast Asian peers this year [3] - Foreign investors have returned to local assets, with global funds net buying $256 million in local stocks this month, contributing to the FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index reaching a seven-year high [3] Group 4 - Bank Negara Malaysia is likely to maintain interest rates until 2027, alongside expectations of continued easing from the Federal Reserve, which may narrow the interest rate advantage of the US over Malaysia [3] - Jeff Ng from Sumitomo Mitsui emphasizes that artificial intelligence and export demand are driving the strength of the Ringgit, with a neutral to hawkish stance from the central bank potentially providing support [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Malaysian ringgit has reached its highest level since 2018, driven by optimism regarding the country's growth prospects and its connection to the artificial intelligence supply chain [1] Group 1: Currency Performance - On Monday, the ringgit was traded at 3.970 against the US dollar, marking the highest level since June 2018 [1] Group 2: Economic Growth - Malaysia's growth momentum is expected to continue this year, supported by strong domestic demand and a potential increase in tourist numbers [1] Group 3: Industry Opportunities - The rapid expansion of the data center industry is creating new opportunities and attracting investments [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Malaysian Ringgit has reached its highest level since 2018, driven by optimism regarding the country's connection to the artificial intelligence (AI) supply chain and economic growth prospects [1][2]. Group 1 - The Malaysian Ringgit appreciated by 0.7% against the US dollar, reaching 3.9792 [1][2]. - This marks the highest exchange rate for the Malaysian Ringgit since June 2018 [1][2].

Core Viewpoint - MBSB Research indicates that Malaysia's stable monetary policy and the Federal Reserve's further easing will support the Malaysian Ringgit, with an expected exchange rate of around 3.95 Ringgit per USD by the end of 2026 [1] Economic Outlook - The Malaysian central bank is likely to maintain interest rates due to stable economic growth and well-controlled inflation [1] - A strong GDP growth of 5.7% is anticipated in Q4 2025, indicating solid economic momentum [1] - Economic growth is projected to be 4.3% in 2026, driven by robust domestic demand [1] Inflation and Consumer Trends - Inflation is expected to rise slightly in 2026 due to policy-related pressures and increasing non-food inflation [1] - An increase in disposable income may support demand-driven inflation [1] Currency Performance - The USD/MYR exchange rate decreased by 0.2%, settling at 4.0393 Ringgit [1]