——2026 年 CFETS 新权重简评 宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 五问 CFETS 权重调整 事 项 2025 年 12 月 31 日，中国外汇交易中心公告调整 CFETS 人民币汇率指数货币 篮子的权重。新版指数自 2026 年 1 月 1 日起生效。 主要观点： 一、何为 CFETS 指数？ CFETS 人民币汇率指数是以贸易份额为权重、参考 CFETS 货币篮子，采用几 何平均法，基于人民币对篮子货币中间价编制的名义一篮子货币指数。 二、篮子权重如何调整？以 T-2 年贸易份额为基准 2020 年开始，外汇交易中心每年底调整一次货币权重，新权重适用于下一年。 调整依据是考虑转口贸易因素的两年前的贸易份额变化，即当年货币权重对 应参考 T-2 年贸易份额，如 2026 年新权重参考的是 2024 年度贸易数据。 三、2026 年新权重有何变化？ 1、2026 年新版权重与 2024 年贸易份额基本匹配。详见图 1。考虑到转口贸易 因素，美元权重、欧元权重明显高于美国、欧元区贸易额占比，港元权重则显 著低于中国香港贸易额占比；其余币种权重与贸易额占比偏差的绝对值不超过 0.4 个点。 ...

据曼谷邮报12月25日报道,分析师预计，在泰铢自12月初以来大幅升值推动 下，外国资金将继续流入泰国股市。Asia Plus Securities指出，泰铢迄今为止累 计上涨了3.26%，这一涨幅"与某些基本经济因素相比似乎并不相符"。在这段 时间里，美元指数仅下跌了1.20%；而外国投资者则从泰国债券市场净撤出了 超过150亿泰铢的资金，尽管股票市场的资金流入量正在逐渐恢复。泰铢的表 现也远远优于其他地区货币，成为了亚洲最强劲的货币。据这家经纪公司称， 相比之下，作为该地区表现第二好的货币，马来西亚林吉特至今仅上涨了 1.14%。 （原标题：外国资金的流入有助于维持泰铢的强势走势） ...

周二，马来西亚林吉特和泰国铢兑疲软的美元汇率攀升至多年高点，引领亚洲新兴货币的涨势，而金融 股帮助新加坡股市创下历史新高。 泰铢兑美元短暂突破31.100关口，升至31.055，这是自2021年6月初以来的最高点。 周二，马来西亚林吉特和泰国铢兑疲软的美元汇率攀升至多年高点，引领亚洲新兴货币的涨势，而金融 股帮助新加坡股市创下历史新高。 泰铢兑美元短暂突破31.100关口，升至31.055，这是自2021年6月初以来的最高点。 黄金价格的飙升推动了泰铢的走高，这对泰国的经济增长起到了反作用，因为泰铢走强会减少出口和旅 游收入。今年以来，泰铢的涨幅已超过 10%，成为该地区表现最好的货币。总部位于曼谷的 Kasikorn 证券公司负责投资策略的高级副总裁 Ratasak Piriyanont 说："今年，泰铢和黄金价格之间的相关性相对 较高，这体现在它们的走势方向一致、幅度相似。"受益于美元走软和美国降息，黄金今年已上涨约 70%，并多次创下历史新高。 马来西亚林吉特是今年表现第二好的亚洲货币，涨幅接近10%，周二小幅走高，触及2021年3月初以来 的最高水平。 新加坡股市创下4625.48点的新高，基准指数本 ...

Currency Performance in Asia - In 2025, major Asian currencies showed significant divergence in performance, with the Japanese yen halting a four-year decline against the US dollar, initially rising from 157.7 yen per dollar at the beginning of the year to 140.9 yen per dollar by mid-April, before falling to 155.4 yen per dollar by December 1 [1] - The decline in the yen accelerated after the appointment of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in late October, attributed to his accommodative monetary policy, despite initial gains being driven by a weaker dollar and inflation-induced rate hike expectations in Japan [1] - The South Korean won also stopped its four-year decline but remained at a 16-year low, trading at 1468.63 won per dollar as of December 2 [1] - Other currencies such as the Singapore dollar, Thai baht, and Malaysian ringgit appreciated against the dollar, with increases of 5.4%, over 7.2%, and over 8.2% respectively [1] Renminbi Strength - Since the beginning of 2025, the renminbi has shown strong resilience, with the onshore exchange rate surpassing 7.07 per dollar on December 1, marking a new high since mid-October of the previous year [2] - The strong performance of the renminbi is attributed to a relatively weak dollar and the stable economic fundamentals in China, which support the currency's revaluation [2] - The International Monetary Fund's October report highlighted the resilience of the Asia-Pacific economies in 2025, with economic growth in the first half exceeding expectations despite multiple internal and external challenges [2]

Group 1 - The Japanese yen stopped its four-year decline against the US dollar in 2025, initially appreciating from 157.7 yen per dollar at the beginning of the year to 140.9 yen per dollar by mid-April, before falling to 155.4 yen per dollar by December 1 [1] - The South Korean won also halted its four-year consecutive decline but remained at a 16-year low, trading at 1468.63 won per dollar as of December 2 [1] - The Singapore dollar appreciated by 5.4%, the Thai baht increased by over 7.2%, and the Malaysian ringgit rose by over 8.2% against the US dollar in 2025 [1] Group 2 - The Chinese yuan has shown strong resilience, with the onshore yuan breaking the 7.07 mark against the US dollar on December 1, reaching its highest level since mid-October of the previous year [2] - The strong performance of the yuan in 2025 is attributed to the relative weakness of the US dollar and the stable economic fundamentals in China, which support the revaluation of the yuan [2] - The International Monetary Fund noted in its October report that the Asia-Pacific region demonstrated resilience in 2025, with economic growth in the first half exceeding expectations despite multiple challenges [2]

Core Insights - The Indian Rupee has depreciated to a historic low against the US Dollar, reaching 89.78 Rupees per Dollar, despite optimistic GDP growth data [2][3] - The depreciation is attributed to a combination of high tariffs imposed by the US on Indian exports and a lack of favorable trade agreements, leading to a significant outflow of foreign investment from the Indian market [3][5] Economic Performance - India recorded its strongest economic growth in six quarters, yet the Rupee continues to weaken, indicating a disconnect between economic performance and currency stability [1][2] - The Indian economy faces challenges due to high tariffs on exports, particularly in the context of US-India trade relations, which have worsened since July [3][5] Currency Trends - The Rupee has experienced its most severe monthly decline since 2022, driven by external pressures and domestic economic concerns [3] - The Reserve Bank of India has reportedly sold over $30 billion in foreign exchange assets to stabilize the Rupee, but the currency continues to face downward pressure [4] Foreign Investment - Foreign investors have withdrawn nearly $16.3 billion from the Indian stock market this year, approaching record outflow levels from 2022, exacerbating the Rupee's depreciation [3][5] - The lack of confidence in India's economic outlook and the high tariffs have led to a significant reduction in foreign investment, impacting the overall market sentiment [5] Trade Relations - The high tariffs imposed by the US on Indian goods have created a challenging environment for Indian exporters, particularly those reliant on the US market [3][5] - The ongoing trade tensions and lack of agreements with the US have raised concerns about India's international balance of payments and economic performance [5][6] Comparative Analysis - The Indian Rupee's performance is notably weaker compared to other emerging market currencies, as many Southeast Asian countries face less tariff pressure from the US [6] - The persistent current account deficit in India, where imports exceed exports, further diminishes demand for the Rupee compared to countries with current account surpluses [6]

Core Viewpoint - The easing of international trade tensions has improved risk appetite in Asian emerging markets, leading to a rebound in regional currencies from pressures caused by U.S. interest rate uncertainty and geopolitical tensions [1] Currency Performance - The Malaysian Ringgit has risen by 0.7% this week, potentially marking its largest weekly gain since August of last year [1] - The Thai Baht has increased by 1.2% this week, likely achieving its best weekly performance since September of last year [1] - The Thai Baht has appreciated over 6% this year, making it one of the best-performing currencies in the region; however, this strength poses risks to Thailand's export and tourism sectors, which are key drivers of the economy [1] U.S. Foreign Policy Shift - Alicia Herrero, Chief Economist for Asia-Pacific at French Foreign Trade Bank, noted a strategic shift in the U.S. approach towards ASEAN, indicating a more balanced effort to rebuild relations with Southeast Asian countries [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Malaysian Ringgit is expected to remain stable against the US Dollar due to the Federal Reserve's shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy, which is putting pressure on the Dollar [1] Exchange Rate Outlook - The current exchange rate of the Malaysian Ringgit against the US Dollar is reported at 4.2040, with a rise of 0.24% [1] - Economists predict that the exchange rate will trade within the range of 4.15 to 4.20 Ringgit per Dollar in the near term [1] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to implement two more rate cuts of 25 basis points each this year, further weakening the Dollar [1] Market Focus - The market is closely watching weak labor data to support expectations for further easing by the Federal Reserve [1] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index is a key focus; a strong reading could diminish hopes for imminent rate cuts [1] - Housing data will also be monitored for signs that may influence the pace of the Federal Reserve's easing measures [1] Long-term Projections - By the end of 2025, the exchange rate is expected to settle at 4.08 Ringgit per Dollar [1] - Short-term resistance for the Dollar/Ringgit pair is seen at 4.21 Ringgit, while support is at 4.19 Ringgit [1] - The Dollar/Ringgit pair has recently increased by 0.3%, reaching 4.2080 Ringgit [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Malaysian Ringgit experienced its largest increase since early August, influenced by dovish remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole [1] Currency Movement - The USD/MYR exchange rate fell by 0.6% to 4.20, marking the most significant decline since August 4 [1]

Group 1 - The Indian Rupee is expected to be one of the worst-performing currencies in Asia due to the pressure from increased tariffs imposed by the US, which is impacting India's already fragile economic recovery [1][3] - Analysts from Deutsche Bank and Barclays predict that the Rupee's exchange rate may fall to a historical low by the end of the year, driven by weak foreign capital inflows and tariff impacts [1][3] - The Indian stock market has experienced an outflow of $11 billion due to economic slowdown, and the central bank's interest rate cuts have further weakened support for the currency [1][3] Group 2 - Barclays estimates that high tariffs could reduce India's GDP growth rate by approximately 30 basis points [3] - The market is focused on the Indian central bank's policy meeting on August 6 for clues on interest rate direction and Rupee trends, following an unexpected 50 basis point rate cut last month [3] - Despite foreign exchange reserves being near historical highs, Citigroup economists believe that uncertainty around tariffs limits the central bank's motivation to aggressively support the Rupee [3] Group 3 - The Rupee has depreciated by 1.2% last week, reaching an exchange rate of 87.5275 Rupees per US dollar, marking the largest weekly decline since December 2022 [3] - Some analysts remain optimistic about a potential trade agreement between the US and India, which could improve the situation for the Rupee [3] - Weak foreign capital inflows continue to be a headwind for the Rupee, with limited prospects for significant bond market inflows due to the central bank's indication of limited rate cut space [3][4]