白银方面，技术面同样表现积极。均线呈多头排列，价格结构上行动能较强。目前关键阻力位在38.80-39.00美元之间，支撑位在37.50美元左右。若价格突 破阻力区间，白银有望延续上行趋势。相较黄金，白银在本轮市场波动中表现出较强的顺势动能，适合关注短线和中线的交易机会。 这次事件对金融市场的冲击即时且明显，同时呈现出结构性分化。美元短线承压，而黄金和白银等贵金属因避险需求上涨。投资者需要理解市场情绪与技术 格局的结合点：一方面关注政治事件带来的风险溢价，另一方面结合技术分析设定操作策略。短期内，贵金属市场可能延续震荡偏强态势，操作上建议依托 关键支撑和阻力位灵活布局，既把握机会，也控制风险。 眼下，市场正在消化这次罕见事件带来的不确定性。在政策与市场预期尚未完全明朗的情况下，投资者应保持谨慎，同时关注技术信号与市场情绪变化。这 对贵金属投资者而言是重要提醒，也给整个金融市场的风险管理提供了实际参考。 8月26日，金融市场被一条突发新闻搅动——美国总统特朗普签署文件，直接罢免了美联储理事库克，并立即生效。这一操作被市场广泛认为是史无前例 的，标志着美国政府对美联储独立性的一次重大挑战。DLSMARKETS外汇表 ...

智通财经记者 | 刘婷 多位经济学家警告，全球发达经济体或正在进入财政主导的时代。分析师表示，这意味着央行独立性遭遇侵蚀，被迫服 务于财政压力，而全球性的这种趋势可能推高通胀，引发金融风险，拖累经济增长。 所谓财政主导指的是，财政需求决定货币政策的状态。2008年全球金融危机后，主要国家进行了十数年的财政刺激政 策，再加上人口老龄化、国防支出和能源转型补贴，以及新冠疫情，这一系列因素导致多国政府的资产负债率大幅飙 升。与此同时，利率正处于多年来的高水平，加剧了偿债负担，导致各国政府希望央行放松货币政策，来应对创纪录的 主权债务。 在这些国家中，表现最为突出的无疑是美国。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普自年初再次上台以来不断施压美联储降息以配合 其宽松的财政政策，并多次威胁要解雇美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔。上个月他还表示，美联储基准利率应比目前 4.25%-4.50%的区间低3个百分点，这样每年可节省1万亿美元的利息成本。 除了发发牢骚，特朗普还将手伸进了美联储。当地时间周一他在社交媒体高调宣布，解除美联储理事丽莎·库克（Lisa Cook）的职务"立即生效"，如果特朗普成功罢免库克，将创下美国历史先例——此前从未有在任美 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the capital interest rates maintained a "low-level and low-volatility" state, with a slight increase during the tax period. The central bank's flexible injections and large banks' high net lending maintained a comfortable liquidity environment. The market's expectation of further monetary easing converged, but the capital market remained relatively stable, with fluctuations during the tax period. The central bank's open market operations were mainly net withdrawals, but turned to net injections during the tax period, and a 6M repurchase agreement was implemented on the tax day. The capital interest rates were close to the bottom, rising slightly on the first tax day. Large banks' net lending reached a new high, and the yield spread of certificates of deposit (CDs) in the primary and secondary markets fluctuated narrowly, indicating limited pressure on banks' liabilities [1]. - The Q2 2025 Monetary Policy Report confirmed sufficient liquidity, suggesting that interest rates may remain low and fluctuate within a narrow range, with limited room for further decline. The central bank may be cautious in using aggregate tools, focusing more on implementing existing policies and improving the transmission mechanism, and paying attention to non-interest financing costs. The fundamental purpose of the financial system to serve the real economy may be more prominent, and the market should not over - interpret short - term liquidity changes [1]. - Next week, the capital market is expected to remain stable, with limited upward pressure on interest rates and a need for more policy signals to break through the lower limit. The maturity scale of reverse repurchases and CDs will decrease, and the influencing factors will be staggered, making the market fluctuations controllable. The coordinated monetary and fiscal policies will ensure sufficient liquidity supply. Interest rates may continue to show "low - volatility and rigidity", and it is unlikely to break through the previous low in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Capital Market Steady State - This week, the capital market remained comfortable, with minor fluctuations during the tax period. The central bank's open - market operations were mainly net withdrawals from Monday to Thursday, but turned to net injections on August 15, the tax deadline, along with a 5000 - billion - yuan 6M repurchase agreement. Capital interest rates were "low - level and low - volatility", rising on the first tax day. Large banks' net lending remained high, and CD prices were stable, indicating limited pressure on banks' liabilities [11]. - The continuous loosening of capital in August was due to the phased injection of repurchase agreements and the fact that August is not a major tax - paying month, with lower tax revenues and reduced mid - month payment pressure [18][20]. - The Q2 2025 Monetary Policy Report was more positive about the domestic economy, emphasizing strategic stability. The central bank may continue to "targeted and precise" regulation, with short - term liquidity remaining stable. The central bank is concerned about financial risk prevention, may be cautious in using aggregate tools, and will focus on supporting the real economy through structural policies. The market should not over - interpret short - term liquidity changes [21][22]. - Next week, the capital market is expected to be stable. The pressure will ease as the maturity scale of reverse repurchases, government bonds, and CDs decreases. The influencing factors will be staggered, and with the coordinated policies, there is no need to worry about liquidity. Interest rates are likely to remain "low - level and low - volatility", and it is difficult to break through the previous low without additional liquidity or policy support [25]. 3.2. Open Market Operations - From August 11 - 15, the open - market net injection was 85.1 billion yuan, including 711.8 billion yuan in 7 - day reverse repurchases, 1126.7 billion yuan in maturities, and 500 billion yuan in 6M repurchase agreements. From August 18 - 22, the open - market maturity will be 931.8 billion yuan, including 711.8 billion yuan in 7 - day reverse repurchases and 220 billion yuan in treasury cash deposits [31]. - The reverse repurchase balance continued to decline. As of August 15, it was 711.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 414.9 billion yuan from August 8. In August, the Medium - term Lending Facility (MLF) will mature for 300 billion yuan, and repurchase agreements will mature for 900 billion yuan (400 billion yuan for 3M and 500 billion yuan for 6M). The net injection of repurchase agreements was 300 billion yuan [33][35]. 3.3. Government Bonds - This week, the net payment of government bonds was 460.4 billion yuan, including 310.3 billion yuan in treasury bond issuance, 91.4 billion yuan in local bond issuance, 95.6 billion yuan in treasury bond maturities, and 73.2 billion yuan in local bond maturities. Next week, the planned issuance of government bonds is 731.2 billion yuan, including 362 billion yuan in treasury bonds and 369.2 billion yuan in local bonds, with 40.1 billion yuan in treasury bond maturities and 167.9 billion yuan in local bond maturities. The net payment of treasury bonds will be 84.9 billion yuan, and that of local bonds will be 179.2 billion yuan [38]. - This week, the net issuance of treasury bonds was 214.6 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance of 4555.5 billion yuan this year, reaching 74% of the annual plan. The issuance of new local bonds was 248.8 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance of 3454.4 billion yuan, reaching 66% of the annual plan [39]. 3.4. Excess Reserve Tracking and Prediction - It is predicted that the excess reserve ratio in August 2025 will be about 1.32%, a decrease of about 0.08 percentage points from July and 0.09 percentage points from the same period last year. The predicted excess reserve at the end of July was 4413.6 billion yuan. From August 11 - 15, the open - market net injection was 85.1 billion yuan, the net payment of government bonds was 460.4 billion yuan, the predicted fiscal revenue - expenditure difference was - 120 billion yuan, the reserve requirement was 2.62 billion yuan, and the tax payment was 998.5 billion yuan [44][45]. 3.5. Money Market - Interest rates increased. As of August 15, compared with August 8, DR001 increased by 9.03 basis points to 1.4%, DR007 increased by 5.47 basis points to 1.48%, R001 increased by 9.78 basis points to 1.44%, and R007 increased by 3.2 basis points to 1.49%. Overnight interest rates hovered around 1.4%. The spreads between various interest rates and the OMO rate also changed [47]. - The weekly average of SHIBOR overnight and 7 - day interest rates changed by 1.67 basis points and 0.21 basis points to 1.33% and 1.44% respectively. The weekly average of CNH HIBOR overnight and 7 - day interest rates changed by 27.57 basis points and 7.13 basis points to 1.49% and 1.53% respectively. The weekly average of FR007S1Y and FR007S5Y interest rates changed by - 0.58 basis points and 0.71 basis points to 1.52% and 1.57% respectively. The weekly average of six - month national and city commercial bill transfer rates changed by - 0.03 percentage points to 0.65% and 0.76% respectively [52][55]. - The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was 8151.4 billion yuan, an increase of 42.3 billion yuan from August 4 - 8. The average daily trading volume of the Shanghai Stock Exchange's new pledged treasury bond repurchase was 2084.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 101.8 billion yuan from August 4 - 8 [57]. - This week, the average net lending of the banking system was 3.78 trillion yuan, a decrease of 153.3 billion yuan from last week. Among them, the average net lending of large state - owned banks was 4.53 trillion yuan, an increase of 105 billion yuan from last week, with an overnight lending ratio of 97%, a decrease of 0.53 percentage points from last week. The average net lending of other banks was - 0.75 trillion yuan, a decrease of 258.3 billion yuan from last week [60]. 3.6. Certificates of Deposit (CDs) - This week (August 11 - 15), the total issuance of CDs was 774.7 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 130.3 billion yuan, a decrease compared with last week. By issuer, state - owned banks had the highest issuance scale, and city commercial banks had the highest net financing. By maturity, 1 - year CDs had the highest issuance scale, and 9 - month CDs had the highest net financing [69]. - The weighted average issuance term of CDs this week was 8.09 months, longer than last week's 6.4 months. Among different types of banks, state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks had weighted average issuance terms of 9.8, 8.1, 6.7, and 7.4 months respectively, with corresponding changes of 3.31, 0.67, 0.52, and 0.91 months from last week [73]. - In terms of issuance success rates, joint - stock banks had the highest success rate. By maturity, 1 - month CDs had the highest success rate, and by credit rating, AA - rated CDs had the highest success rate [75]. - Next week (August 18 - 24), the maturity scale of CDs will be 797.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 107.7 billion yuan from this week. The maturity is mainly concentrated in state - owned banks and city commercial banks, and the terms are mainly 1 - year and 3 - month [78][79].

Core Viewpoint - The central bank's second-quarter monetary policy execution report indicates cautious optimism regarding external economic conditions, with a slight improvement in expectations since the second quarter, particularly noting resilience in the U.S. economy [1] Group 1: External Economic Conditions - The report assesses global economic growth as generally weak, with recovery processes still uncertain, but mentions a slight improvement in expectations since the second quarter [1] - Key risks identified include uncertainty in economic recovery, persistent inflation in some economies, high public sector debt levels, and increased volatility in global financial markets [1] - The U.S. economy has shown signs of rebound, which may influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, with a 25 basis point rate cut in September being a possibility [1] Group 2: Domestic Economic Outlook - The report expresses increased confidence in domestic economic growth for the second half of the year, highlighting ongoing improvements in national economic circulation and a commitment to high-quality development [2] - Compared to the May report, the tone is more assured, with many international organizations and investment banks raising their economic forecasts for China [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of establishing a new development pattern that prioritizes domestic circulation while promoting international circulation [2] Group 3: Price Stability and Competition - The central bank has identified excessive low-price competition in certain industries as a factor contributing to low inflation, which has been a focus since the beginning of the year [3] - The report notes that while inflation remains low, there are positive factors supporting a moderate recovery in price levels, driven by macroeconomic policy implementation [3] - The anticipated recovery in inflation is expected to alleviate some pressure on monetary policy [3] Group 4: Monetary Policy Framework - The overall tone of monetary policy remains "moderately accommodative," with an emphasis on flexibility and foresight in policy implementation [4] - The report introduces the concept of "preventing fund diversion," indicating a focus on improving the quality and efficiency of credit allocation [5] - The central bank aims to balance financial support for the real economy while maintaining the health of the banking system, with a cautious approach to interest rate reductions [5] Group 5: Structural Support and Financial Services - The report includes four special articles focusing on structural support for small and micro enterprises, financial services for technological innovation, credit structure optimization, and promoting consumption [7] - It highlights the need for continuous optimization of credit structures to meet the effective financing needs of the real economy [7] - Recent policies, such as personal consumption loan subsidies, aim to enhance consumer financing services and stimulate consumption growth [7] Group 6: Loan Rates and Financial Environment - The average weighted interest rate for loans in June was reported at 3.69%, down from 3.75% in March, indicating a gradual decline in loan rates [8] - The report suggests that the decline in loan rates may slow down due to the need to maintain bank interest margins and the overall health of the banking sector [8] - The central bank's policies are expected to continue supporting a stable financial environment while managing inflation expectations [8] Group 7: Overall Assessment - The execution report confirms that the central bank is in a "comfortable zone" regarding its monetary policy objectives, with manageable pressures on growth targets and inflation expectations [9] - The report indicates that there is no immediate need for aggressive monetary easing, but the central bank will remain responsive to changing economic conditions [9] - The bond market is expected to remain defensive while waiting for opportunities, with a focus on balancing risk and return [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic economic tone is more positive, reducing the short - term urgency for policy intensification. The overseas environment shows positive changes but still requires caution, and domestic policies should enhance flexibility and predictability [1][6]. - Monetary policy maintains its stance, and liquidity will remain abundant. Central bank regulation will continue to be targeted, and the use of aggregate tools may be more cautious [3][15]. - The financial system's focus on serving the real economy is more prominent. Short - term capital fluctuations may have less signal significance, and the central bank is more focused on achieving multiple monetary policy goals [4][18]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Economy Steady with Progress, Overseas Environment with Prudent Optimism - **Domestic Economy**: The report's tone on the domestic economy is more positive. In H1 2025, the economy grew steadily with a GDP growth of 5.3%. The stock and bond markets' pricing of July economic data was limited. The positive tone may reduce the short - term need for policy intensification, and incremental policies need a longer observation period [6][13]. - **Overseas Environment**: The description of the overseas economic recovery process and tariff policies in the report has become less severe. The RMB exchange rate has certain resistance, and the impact of tariff games is gradually weakening. However, uncertainties such as Sino - US tariff games and the Fed's interest - rate cut path still exist, so vigilance cannot be relaxed [2][7]. 3.2 Policy Maintains Stance, Liquidity Abundance Re - confirmed - The moderately loose monetary policy emphasizes "implementation and refinement", indicating good implementation in H1 and more focus on policy effectiveness in H2. The central bank's regulation will continue to be targeted, and liquidity will remain abundant with interest rates likely to fluctuate within a narrow range. - The central bank pays attention to preventing financial risks, aiming to balance reducing bank liability costs and supporting the real economy. Aggregate tools may be used more cautiously, with more focus on improving frameworks and transmission mechanisms and reducing non - interest financing costs [3][15]. 3.3 Focus on Multiple Goals, Signal Significance of Short - term Capital Fluctuations May Weaken - The Q2 monetary policy report has four columns highlighting how finance supports the real economy, and structural monetary policy tools will continue to be the main means. - The central bank is more focused on achieving multiple monetary policy goals. Short - term capital fluctuations may be due to temporary supply - demand frictions, and the market should not over - interpret them [4][18].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China conducted a 126 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation on August 1, maintaining the operation rate at 1.40% [1] - A total of 789.3 billion yuan reverse repos matured on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 663.3 billion yuan from the open market [1] - For the week, the People's Bank of China performed 1.6632 trillion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, with 1.6563 trillion yuan maturing, leading to a net injection of 6.9 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The overnight Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) fell to 1.3150%, down 7.70 basis points, while the 7-day Shibor decreased by 5.10 basis points to 1.4460% [2][3] - The 14-day Shibor increased slightly by 0.70 basis points to 1.5530% [2] Group 3 - In the interbank pledged repo market, short-term rates declined across the board, with R001 dropping over 20 basis points and transaction volume nearing 6.9 billion yuan [5] - The weighted average rates for DR001 and R001 fell by 8.2 basis points and 20.9 basis points, respectively, with transaction volumes increasing significantly [5] Group 4 - The funding environment was reported to be loose on August 1, with overnight rates for various instruments remaining low, indicating a continued trend of liquidity in the market [10] - A total of 36 interbank certificates of deposit were issued on August 1, with an actual issuance amount of 22.85 billion yuan [11]

金融风险存在薄弱环节 《报告》指出，从7家商业银行审计情况看，金融风险正在有效缓解和管控，风险总体可控，但仍存在一些薄 弱环节。 记者查阅相关银行行政罚单，近两年有关"四证"不全的房地产项目的罚单并不少见。如金融监管总局网站2024 年4月披露，汉口银行因违规向四证不全的房地产项目提供融资，且部分资金用于偿还本行风险贷款等问题受 到当地监管部门的处罚。此外，同年10月份的罚单显示，九江银行因理财资金用于受让本行表外风险资产、 向"四证"不全的房地产项目提供融资，领到罚单。 此外，上述《报告》指出，有5 家银行对账户资金异常流动监管不力，11 家地方融资平台借机向公众集资 247.43亿元，主要用于偿还存量债务等，所承诺保底年化收益最高达12%，使债务风险向涉众领域外溢。 近日，审计署披露了《国务院关于2024年度中央预算执行和其他财政收支的审计工作报告》（下称《报 告》），指出部分接受审计的金融机构在金融风险方面存在薄弱环节，此外，还存在违规掩盖处置不良资 产，以及违规放贷揽储等问题。 具体如有6家银行2022年以来，违规向"四证"不全等房地产项目发放开发贷款等共计209.68亿元。有7家银行在 支持房地产中 ...

6月24日，国务院关于2024年度中央预算执行和其他财政收支的审计工作报告公布。从7家商业银行审计 情况看，金融风险正在有效缓解和管控，风险总体可控，但仍存在一些薄弱环节：6家银行2022年以 来，违规向"四证"不全等房地产项目发放开发贷款等共计209.68亿元。7家银行在支持房地产中长期转 方式中，未严格落实有关部门关于区分房企整体风险与房地产项目风险等要求，放款时仍将房企整体风 险作为评价单个项目授信的重要条件。5家银行对账户资金异常流动监管不力，11家地方融资平台借机 向公众集资247.43亿元，主要用于偿还存量债务等，所承诺保底年化收益最高达12%，使债务风险向涉 众领域外溢。(审计署网站) ...

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu province has gathered 14.63 million business entities by the end of last year, with the police playing a crucial role in optimizing the business environment and supporting the modernization of Jiangsu's economy [1] Group 1: Economic Crime Prevention - In 2024, Jiangsu's police have intensified efforts to combat various economic crimes, focusing on protecting property rights and the rights of entrepreneurs [2] - The police have launched several special operations, such as "Winter Offensive" and "Summer Security Crackdown," targeting significant economic crimes and successfully cracking down on over a hundred criminal gangs [2][3] - The police are also addressing internal corruption within enterprises, with a focus on cases of embezzlement and bribery, and have introduced new strategies for combating commercial bribery [2] Group 2: Market Order Maintenance - Jiangsu's police have initiated the "Kunlun 2024" operation to tackle economic crimes that disrupt market order, resulting in the investigation of over a thousand intellectual property infringement cases [3] - The police have successfully handled a major illegal payment case involving funds exceeding 10 billion yuan, providing a model for addressing industry-wide issues [3] Group 3: Business Environment Improvement - The police are implementing measures to create a first-class business environment, including streamlining administrative processes and reducing burdens on enterprises [4][5] - Initiatives include enhancing the efficiency of service centers for businesses and promoting simplified approval processes for key enterprises [4] Group 4: Protection of Private Enterprises - Jiangsu's police are committed to protecting the legal rights of private enterprises and entrepreneurs, addressing issues such as difficulty in reporting and filing cases [6] - The police are enhancing law enforcement standardization to minimize disruptions to normal business operations [6] Group 5: Financial Risk Prevention - The police are focusing on preventing and mitigating financial risks, with nearly 1,000 financial-related cases filed in 2024 and over 1,000 suspects arrested [8] - Efforts include monitoring illegal fundraising activities and addressing crimes such as money laundering and insurance fraud [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the reversal of the US dollar's trend from appreciation expectations to a comprehensive depreciation, highlighting the underlying risks associated with this shift [1] Group 1: Dollar Performance - The US dollar has shifted from a period of expected appreciation to a phase of widespread depreciation, indicating a significant change in market sentiment [1] - This reversal in the dollar's performance may have implications for global trade and investment flows, as a weaker dollar can affect the competitiveness of US exports [1] Group 2: Risks and Implications - The depreciation of the dollar could lead to increased inflationary pressures domestically, as imported goods become more expensive [1] - Investors may need to reassess their strategies in light of the dollar's changing value, particularly in sectors sensitive to currency fluctuations [1]