智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，维持钢铁行业"增持"评级。长期来看，产业集中度提升、促 进高质量发展是未来钢铁行业发展的必然趋势，具有产品结构与成本优势的钢企将充分受益;在环保加 严、超低排放改造与碳中和背景下，龙头公司竞争优势与盈利能力将更加凸显。该行维持供给端收缩的 预期，钢铁基本面有望逐步修复。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 上周五大钢材表观需求环增，五大钢厂厂库和社库合计环降 上周(11月17日-11月21日)五大钢材表需894万吨，环比增3.90%，同比降2.01%;其中建材表需319万吨， 环降16万吨;板材表需575万吨，环增18万吨。五大钢材产850万吨，环降16万吨;总库1433万吨，环降44 万吨，连续数周下降，符合历史同期规律。10月份粗钢产7180万吨，同降12.10%;10月份生铁产6555万 吨，同降7.9%;10月我钢材累计出口9774万吨，累增6.6%，环降2.6个百分点。产量下降，库存下降，国 内钢材资源供应更加平衡。 钢企盈利环比下降 进口矿港口库存15055万吨，环降75万吨。螺纹模拟测算平均吨毛利为61元/吨，较上一周降20元/吨， 热卷模拟平均吨毛利-65元/吨，较 ...

Group 1 - Steel stocks experienced a rapid increase, with Maanshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. rising by 7.84% to HKD 2.89, Angang Steel Company Limited increasing by 3.17% to HKD 2.28, and Chongqing Iron & Steel Company Limited up by 2.13% to HKD 1.44 [1] - The commencement ceremony for the Simandou project was held at the port of Maribaya in Guinea, which is noted to be the largest iron ore reserve globally and has the potential to become the fifth-largest mine [1] - According to Dongfang Securities, the launch of the Simandou project may significantly disrupt the monopoly of the four major mines on iron ore supply, leading to a substantial change in the iron ore supply landscape [1] Group 2 - Guotai Junan Securities released a report indicating that steel demand is expected to gradually bottom out; despite prolonged industry losses, market-driven supply adjustments are beginning to emerge [1] - The firm anticipates a gradual recovery in the fundamentals of the steel industry, and if supply policies are implemented, the speed of supply contraction may accelerate, leading to a quicker industry upturn [1]

Core Insights - The steel industry is expected to gradually recover as demand stabilizes and supply-side adjustments begin to take effect, with potential acceleration if supply policies are implemented [3][4]. Group 1: Steel Market Overview - Steel prices have decreased, with total inventory also declining. Last week, the average price of rebar in Shanghai fell by 10 CNY/ton to 3200 CNY/ton, a decrease of 0.31% [8][12]. - Apparent consumption of five major steel products was 8.6693 million tons, down 5.4% week-on-week and 1.22% year-on-year [21][26]. - The production of steel decreased to 8.5674 million tons, a week-on-week decline of 18.55 thousand tons [31]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The operating rate of blast furnaces among 247 steel mills increased to 83.13%, up 1.38 percentage points week-on-week, while electric furnace operating rates decreased [27][29]. - The profitability of steel companies has declined, with an average profit margin of 39.83%, down 5.19 percentage points week-on-week [27][30]. - The report anticipates that the demand for steel will stabilize, particularly as the negative impact from the real estate sector diminishes, while infrastructure and manufacturing demand is expected to grow steadily [3][4]. Group 3: Raw Material Prices - Iron ore prices have decreased, with spot prices dropping by 26 CNY/ton to 774 CNY/ton, a decline of 3.25% [46]. - The inventory of iron ore at ports increased to 14898.83 million tons, up 2.45% week-on-week [49]. - The total shipment volume of iron ore from Brazil and Australia has decreased, indicating a tightening supply [50][53]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report maintains an "overweight" rating for the steel sector, highlighting that companies with product structure and cost advantages will benefit from the industry's transition towards higher quality development [4]. - Key recommendations include Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and Shougang, which are noted for their technological and structural advantages [4].

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is expected to gradually bottom out in demand, with supply-side adjustments beginning to take effect, leading to a potential recovery in the industry's fundamentals. If supply policies are implemented, the contraction in supply may accelerate, facilitating a quicker industry upturn. The industry maintains an "overweight" rating [1]. Group 1: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Last week, the apparent consumption of five major steel products reached 9.1642 million tons, an increase of 237,100 tons week-on-week. Construction steel consumption was 3.3127 million tons, up 160,300 tons, while plate consumption was 5.8515 million tons, up 76,800 tons [2]. - The total steel inventory stood at 15.1374 million tons, a decrease of 411,300 tons week-on-week, maintaining a low level. The operating rate of blast furnaces in 247 steel mills was 81.75%, down 2.96 percentage points week-on-week [2]. - The industry has been experiencing losses since Q3 2022, with nearly 40% of steel companies still in the red. Market-driven supply adjustments have begun to emerge [4]. Group 2: Profitability and Cost Trends - The average gross profit for rebar was 104.7 CNY/ton, down 21.4 CNY/ton week-on-week, while hot-rolled coil gross profit averaged 44.7 CNY/ton, up 28.6 CNY/ton. The profitability rate for 247 steel companies was 45.02%, a decrease of 2.6% [3]. - The expectation is that iron ore production will accelerate while demand remains subdued, leading to a gradual easing of iron ore prices and improving cost pressures for the steel industry [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The negative impact of the real estate sector on steel demand is expected to weaken, with stable growth anticipated in infrastructure and manufacturing steel demand. Steel exports from January to September maintained year-on-year growth [4]. - The recently released "Steel Industry Stabilization and Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" emphasizes continued implementation of production reduction policies, aiming to balance supply and demand dynamically [4].

Core Insights - The steel industry is experiencing a gradual recovery in demand, with a notable increase in apparent consumption and a decrease in inventory levels, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [1][3] - Despite the positive demand trends, profitability in the steel sector has declined, with significant drops in gross margins for key products, suggesting ongoing cost pressures [2] - The supply side is expected to continue its contraction, supported by government policies aimed at reducing production and promoting a balance between supply and demand [3] Demand and Supply Analysis - Apparent consumption of the five major steel products reached 8.7541 million tons, up by 1.2398 million tons week-on-week, with construction materials and sheet products also showing increases [1] - Total steel production was 8.5695 million tons, down by 0.0636 million tons, while total inventory decreased to 15.8226 million tons, down by 0.1846 million tons, maintaining a low level [1] - The operating rate of blast furnaces remained stable at 84.27%, while electric furnace operating rates increased slightly, indicating a mixed response in production capabilities [1] Profitability Trends - The average gross profit for rebar fell to 111.6 CNY per ton, down by 34.3 CNY per ton, and for hot-rolled coils, it dropped to 21.6 CNY per ton, down by 67.6 CNY per ton [2] - The profitability rate for 247 steel companies decreased to 55.41%, down by 0.87% week-on-week, reflecting the challenges faced by the industry [2] Future Outlook - The demand from the real estate sector is expected to weaken, but stable growth is anticipated in infrastructure and manufacturing, which may support overall steel demand [3] - The government has introduced policies to control production, aiming to phase out inefficient capacities and support advanced enterprises, which may lead to a quicker recovery in the steel industry's fundamentals [3] Investment Recommendations - Companies with leading technology and product structures, such as Baosteel (600019.SH) and Hualing Steel (000932.SZ), are recommended for their competitive advantages [5] - Low-valuation, high-dividend steel companies like CITIC Special Steel (000708.SZ) and Yongjin Shares (603995.SH) are also highlighted as attractive investment opportunities [5] - The report suggests a positive outlook for upstream resource companies, recommending firms like Hebei Steel Resources (000923.SZ) and Erdos (600295.SH) due to their long-term advantages [5]

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is expected to gradually recover as demand stabilizes and supply-side adjustments begin to take effect, with potential acceleration if supply policies are implemented [1][4]. Demand and Supply Analysis - Demand has decreased, with apparent consumption of five major steel products at 7.5143 million tons, down 1.5339 million tons week-on-week; total inventory rose to 16.0072 million tons, an increase of 1.2786 million tons [2]. - The operating rate of blast furnaces among 247 steel mills was 84.27%, a slight decrease of 0.02 percentage points week-on-week, indicating a marginal decline in demand due to the National Day holiday [2]. - Despite the recent decline, the steel demand is expected to gradually recover as the industry is still in the traditional peak season [2]. Profitability and Cost Analysis - The average gross profit per ton for rebar was 167.1 CNY, up 24.3 CNY week-on-week, while hot-rolled coil gross profit was 112.1 CNY, an increase of 29.3 CNY [3]. - The profitability rate for 247 steel companies was 56.28%, down 0.43% week-on-week, indicating a slight decline in overall profitability [3]. - The iron ore inventory at 45 ports was 140.25 million tons, an increase of 242,200 tons, suggesting a potential easing in iron ore prices and improvement in cost factors for the steel industry [3]. Future Outlook - The demand for steel is expected to stabilize, with a reduced negative impact from the real estate sector and steady growth anticipated in infrastructure and manufacturing [4]. - The steel industry is experiencing a market-driven supply adjustment, with over 40% of steel companies currently operating at a loss [4]. - Recent policy proposals aim to continue production cuts and promote the exit of inefficient capacities, supporting a balanced supply-demand dynamic [4]. - Long-term trends indicate that industry concentration will increase, benefiting companies with product structure and cost advantages, especially under stricter environmental regulations [4].

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is expected to gradually bottom out in demand, with supply-side market clearing beginning to appear, leading to a potential recovery in the industry's fundamentals. If supply policies are implemented, the contraction of supply may accelerate, facilitating quicker industry recovery [1]. Demand and Supply Analysis - Steel consumption for the week of October 6-10, 2025, was 7.5143 million tons, a decrease of 1.5339 million tons week-on-week. Construction steel consumption was 2.2262 million tons, down 1.0846 million tons, while plate steel consumption was 5.2881 million tons, down 0.4493 million tons. Steel production was 8.6331 million tons, a decrease of 0.0376 million tons, and total inventory rose to 16.0072 million tons, an increase of 1.2786 million tons [2]. - The operating rate of blast furnaces at 247 steel mills was 84.27%, down 0.02 percentage points week-on-week, while electric furnace operating rates were 60.26%, down 1.28 percentage points. Despite a marginal decline in demand due to the National Day holiday, the industry remains in a traditional peak season, with expectations for gradual recovery in steel demand and inventory reduction [2]. Profitability Trends - The average gross profit per ton for rebar was 167.1 CNY, an increase of 24.3 CNY week-on-week, while hot-rolled coil gross profit was 112.1 CNY, up 29.3 CNY. The profitability rate for 247 steel companies was 56.28%, a decrease of 0.43% [3]. - The expectation is for iron ore production to accelerate while demand remains limited, leading to a gradual easing of iron ore prices and improvement in cost constraints for the steel industry, with a potential recovery in profitability levels [3]. Future Outlook - The negative impact of the real estate sector on steel demand is expected to diminish, with stable growth anticipated in demand from infrastructure and manufacturing sectors. Steel exports maintained a year-on-year increase from January to August [4]. - Over 40% of steel companies are currently experiencing losses, but market clearing is beginning to occur. Recent policies aim to reduce production and promote a balance between supply and demand, supporting the expectation of supply contraction and gradual recovery in the steel industry's fundamentals [4]. Recommended Companies - Key recommendations include Baosteel (600019) for its technological and product structure leadership, Hualing Steel (000932) for its product structure upgrades, and Fangda Special Steel (600507) for its low-cost advantages. Other recommendations include CITIC Special Steel (000708) for its competitive advantages and high dividend yield, as well as upstream resource companies like Hebei Steel Resources (000923) and Dazhong Mining (001203) due to their long-term growth potential [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel industry [6]. Core Insights - Demand is expected to gradually stabilize, and the inventory levels are decreasing, indicating a potential recovery in the steel industry [3][6]. - The report highlights that the supply-side adjustments are beginning to take effect, with a significant portion of steel companies still operating at a loss, which may lead to a market-clearing process [3][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Steel Market Overview - The apparent consumption of five major steel products reached 8.7406 million tons, an increase of 237,300 tons week-on-week; construction materials consumption was 3.0445 million tons, up by 99,800 tons; and sheet metal consumption was 5.6961 million tons, up by 137,500 tons [6]. - Total steel inventory decreased to 15.1061 million tons, down by 91,300 tons week-on-week, maintaining a low level [6]. - The operating rate of blast furnaces in 247 steel mills was 84.45%, an increase of 0.47 percentage points week-on-week [6]. 2. Profitability and Production - The average gross profit for rebar was 216.2 CNY/ton, down by 18.1 CNY/ton week-on-week, while hot-rolled coil gross profit was 172.2 CNY/ton, up by 18.4 CNY/ton [6]. - The profitability rate of 247 steel companies was 58.01%, a decrease of 0.86 percentage points week-on-week [6]. 3. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report anticipates that the negative impact of the real estate sector on steel demand will weaken, while demand from infrastructure and manufacturing is expected to grow steadily [6]. - The recent policy document on the steel industry emphasizes continued production cuts and the exit of inefficient capacity, supporting the expectation of supply-side contraction [6]. 4. Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on their competitive advantages and market positioning, including Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and CITIC Special Steel, among others [6].

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is expected to gradually recover as demand stabilizes and supply-side adjustments begin to take effect, with potential acceleration if supply policies are implemented [1][3]. Demand and Supply Analysis - Demand is showing a marginal increase with a week-on-week rise in apparent consumption of five major steel products to 8.7406 million tons, up by 237,300 tons. Inventory levels have decreased to 15.1061 million tons, down by 91,300 tons [1]. - The operating rate of blast furnaces among 247 steel mills is at 84.45%, an increase of 0.47 percentage points week-on-week, while electric furnace operating rates have decreased to 60.26%, down by 1.28 percentage points [1]. - The industry has been experiencing losses since Q3 2022, with nearly 40% of steel companies still in the red. However, market-driven supply adjustments are beginning to emerge [3]. Profitability Trends - The average gross profit per ton for rebar has decreased to 216.2 CNY, down by 18.1 CNY, while hot-rolled coil profit has increased to 172.2 CNY, up by 18.4 CNY. The overall profitability rate for 247 steel companies is at 58.01%, a decline of 0.86% [2]. - Expectations indicate that iron ore production will accelerate, leading to a more relaxed market for iron ore prices, which may alleviate cost pressures for the steel industry [2]. Future Outlook - The demand from the real estate sector is expected to weaken, but demand from infrastructure and manufacturing is anticipated to grow steadily. Steel exports have maintained year-on-year growth through August [3]. - The recently released "Steel Industry Stability Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" emphasizes continued production cuts and the exit of inefficient capacities, supporting the expectation of supply-side contraction [3]. - The long-term trend in the steel industry is towards increased concentration and high-quality development, benefiting companies with product structure and cost advantages [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that steel demand is expected to stabilize while supply is anticipated to continue contracting, with infrastructure and manufacturing sectors showing steady growth in steel demand [1] - From January to July, steel exports maintained a year-on-year growth, indicating a positive trend in overall steel demand [1] - The steel industry has been experiencing losses since Q3 2022, leading to a market-driven supply adjustment, which is expected to continue [1] Group 2 - The recently released "Steel Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" emphasizes the continuation of production reduction policies, aiming to support advanced enterprises and phase out inefficient capacities, thereby promoting a dynamic balance between supply and demand [1] - The fundamental outlook for the steel industry is expected to gradually improve as supply-side contraction is maintained [1] - Investors interested in the steel sector can consider the only ETF tracking the steel industry (515210) for exposure to steel plates, special steel, and metal products [1]