事件：新华保险公布2025 年中报，营收和归母净利润分别同比增加26.0%和33.5%至700 亿和148 亿元， 归母净资产虽较年初下降13.3%，但较Q1 末回升4.5%，25H1 中期分红20.9 亿元，股息分配率为 14.1%，和去年同期的15%基本持平，寿险NBV 增速为58.4%，总投资收益率和综合投资收益率为5.9% 和6.3%，各项数据均表现出色。 点评 寿险银保NBV 贡献超50%，个险队伍有趋稳趋势1. 新华保险25H1 长期险首年期缴和趸交分别增长65% 和353%，主要是个险在25Q1销售3 年交短缴产品，银代25H1 同比多投放110 亿元趸交，两者拉动下实 现58.4%的nbv 增长，新业务csm 相应增长8.7%，但此消彼长下10 年期新单保费收入下降40%； 2. 新华保险极为重视银保渠道，我们预计上半年的发展动力在于和更多银行合作，实现举绩网点数量和 网均产能的双提升，25H1 新华保险银保渠道贡献的NBV 比重达到52.8%；后续或通过强本部、人网匹 配和重点银行渠道突破进一步增强银保渠道竞争力； 3. 新华保险的个险队伍的人数，合格人数，绩优人数和万C 人数均出现走稳趋势 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue growing by 26.0% to 70 billion and net profit increasing by 33.5% to 14.8 billion [3] - The contribution of new business value (NBV) from bancassurance exceeded 50%, indicating a stable trend in the individual insurance sales force [4][6] - Investment performance has been strong, with a notable increase in investment income, which is crucial for the company's overall performance [5][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a 58.4% growth in NBV, driven by a 65% increase in first-year premiums and a 353% increase in single premiums [6] - Total investment return rate and comprehensive investment return rate were reported at 5.9% and 6.3%, respectively [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 29.7 billion, 28.6 billion, and 30.3 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, with growth rates of 13.3%, -3.7%, and 6.1% respectively [8] - The estimated intrinsic value per share for 2025-2027 is projected to be 92.8, 101.6, and 111.7 yuan, with current price-to-embedded value (P/EV) ratios of 0.68, 0.62, and 0.57 [8] Investment Strategy - The company is focusing on enhancing its bancassurance channel by increasing cooperation with more banks, which is expected to boost its performance [6] - The individual insurance sales force has shown signs of stabilization, with a significant increase in qualified personnel [6][12]

Core Viewpoint - The five major listed insurance companies in A-shares have significantly increased their stock investments, with a total increase of 411.86 billion yuan, representing a growth of 28.7% compared to the end of last year [1][6]. Group 1: Investment Performance - As of the end of the first half of the year, the total investment assets of the five A-share listed insurance companies reached 19.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.5% from the end of last year, accounting for 54.4% of the total insurance funds [2]. - The total investment return rates of various insurance companies showed a mixed performance, with China Pacific Insurance and China Life experiencing a year-on-year decline, while New China Life and China Reinsurance saw an increase of about 1 percentage point [4]. - The net investment return rates generally decreased by 0.1 to 0.25 percentage points, attributed to the decline in bond interest income in a low-interest-rate environment [6]. Group 2: Stock Investment Trends - The stock investment balance of the five major listed insurance companies reached 1.8 trillion yuan at the end of the first half, with an increase of 411.86 billion yuan, marking a growth of 28.7% [6]. - China Re and China Ping An saw stock investment increases of around 50%, while China Pacific Insurance and New China Life had smaller increases of 11% and 10.2%, respectively [6]. - New China Life had the highest proportion of stock investments in total investment assets at 11.6%, while China Ping An and China Pacific Insurance had lower proportions around 15% [6]. Group 3: Future Investment Strategies - Insurance companies plan to continue increasing their investments in the capital market, focusing on high-dividend stocks and growth stocks as part of their investment strategy [8][9]. - The companies expressed confidence in the capital market, citing regulatory support and favorable policies as key factors for optimism [8][9]. - The insurance companies are also participating in long-term investment pilot programs, with several funds already established to invest in stocks, focusing on companies with stable dividends and growth potential [11][12][13].

Group 1 - China Taiping's subsidiary, Taiping Asset, has received approval from the National Financial Regulatory Administration to establish Taiping (Shenzhen) Private Securities Investment Fund Management Co., Ltd. [1] - A total of six insurance capital private securities fund companies have now been approved [1] - The number of insurance private securities investment fund products that have entered operation has reached six [1] Group 2 - The pilot program for long-term investment by insurance funds is accelerating, with three batches of pilot approvals so far [1] - The first batch of pilot approvals was granted in October 2023, while the second batch included eight insurance companies with a total scale of 112 billion yuan [1] - The third batch has a total scale of 60 billion yuan, and Taiping Life was approved to conduct pilot programs as part of the second batch [1] - The establishment of Taiping Private Securities Fund is expected to enhance the investment of medium- and long-term capital in the capital market [1]

Core Viewpoint - Sunshine Asset has been approved to establish a private securities fund management company, Sunshine Hengyi, with an initial investment of 10 million yuan, aiming to enhance its capital market participation and long-term investment capabilities [2][5]. Group 1: Company Establishment and Approval - The Financial Regulatory Bureau has granted approval for Sunshine Asset to fully establish Sunshine Hengyi Private Fund Management Co., Ltd. with its own funds of 10 million yuan [2]. - Sunshine Asset is a subsidiary of Sunshine Insurance, which plans to invest 20 billion yuan in the Sunshine Heyuan Private Securities Investment Fund, representing 100% of the fund's issuance [2][5]. Group 2: Fund Characteristics and Investment Strategy - The Sunshine Heyuan Fund is a pilot fund for long-term insurance capital investment, designed as a contractual open-end fund focused on equity investments, aiming for long-term asset preservation and appreciation while controlling risks [3][5]. - The investment scope includes stocks from the CSI 300 Index, Hang Seng Stock Connect Index, related index ETFs, and index funds, utilizing various investment methods such as continuous bidding and private placements [4]. Group 3: Industry Context and Other Approved Funds - Sunshine Hengyi is the fifth insurance-related private securities fund management company approved, following others like Honghu Zhiyuan and Taikang Asset [6][7]. - The total approved pilot amount for insurance capital investment through private securities funds has reached 222 billion yuan, with previous batches already fully invested or in progress [7].

Core Viewpoint - Cash is becoming a new aesthetic for many fund managers seeking opportunities and safety in the Hong Kong stock market, with a focus on cash flow and reserves influencing stock selection and valuations [1][2][5]. Group 1: Cash Reserves and Stock Selection - Fund managers are increasingly prioritizing companies with strong cash reserves, as these can mitigate the negative impacts of low revenue and losses [3][4]. - The market's heightened risk aversion has led to a surge in the stock prices of companies with substantial cash reserves, such as Meitu, which saw a price increase of over 25% in June, reaching a market cap of 35 billion HKD [2]. - Companies like Jing Tai Holdings, despite low revenue, are valued highly due to their significant cash reserves, which exceed 3.3 billion HKD [3]. Group 2: Impact of Cash Flow on Valuation - The disparity between net profit and operating cash flow is critical in assessing a company's long-term growth potential, with companies generating substantial cash flow being viewed as undervalued [7]. - The case of Funbo Group illustrates that despite a high revenue growth of 24%, its lack of cash reserves led to a significant stock price decline, highlighting the importance of cash flow over profit [6][7]. - The valuation differences between companies in the same sector, such as the vending machine industry, demonstrate that cash reserves and operating cash flow are key factors influencing market perception and stock performance [9]. Group 3: Market Trends and ETF Influence - The recent surge in the issuance of free cash flow ETFs, with nearly 30 funds launched this year, is expected to further shape fund managers' stock selection criteria [11]. - The regulatory environment is also evolving, with insurance funds being encouraged to invest in high-dividend stocks, enhancing the attractiveness of cash flow and dividend-paying companies [12].

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of "insurance系" private equity funds is driven by regulatory guidance for long-term capital market entry and the actual needs of insurance companies to adapt to a low-interest-rate environment [1][2]. Group 1: Fund Establishment and Scale - Xinhua Insurance plans to invest up to 15 billion yuan in the Honghu III private equity fund, co-established by Xinhua Asset and China Life Asset [2][3]. - Since May, at least seven "insurance系" private equity funds or products have been established, indicating a surge in activity among insurance companies [3][4]. - The Honghu III fund has a total scale of 22.5 billion yuan, with Xinhua Insurance and China Life each contributing 11.25 billion yuan [3]. Group 2: Long-term Investment Strategy - The establishment of these private equity funds reflects the results of the insurance capital's "long money long investment" strategy, driven by policy support and the need for better asset allocation in a declining interest rate environment [5]. - The long-term investment pilot program initiated in 2023 allows insurance companies to set up private equity funds primarily targeting the secondary market stocks for long-term holding [5][6]. Group 3: Investment Focus and Trends - The investment focus of these funds is expected to be on high-dividend, low-volatility stable assets, with an emphasis on companies with strong governance and good business models [10][11]. - The first phase of the Honghu fund primarily invested in key industries related to national interests, while the second phase is set to focus on large-cap A+H shares [10][11]. - Other insurance companies are also expected to follow similar investment strategies, focusing on stable, high-quality listed companies [11][12]. Group 4: Regulatory and Market Context - The pilot program for long-term investment is expected to expand by 2025, with several insurance companies already approved to participate [6][7]. - The total approved scale for the three batches of long-term investment reform trials is estimated to reach 222 billion yuan, with expectations for further increases in approved scales [7].

Core Insights - The insurance capital market has accelerated its investment pace this year due to policy support, with a target fund size of 20 billion yuan launched by a leading insurance company [1] - The total scale of long-term investment pilot programs is set to increase to 222 billion yuan following the approval of an additional 60 billion yuan [1] - The demand for dividend assets with stable yields and low volatility has surged, leading to significant inflows into related ETFs [1] Fund Performance - The Dividend Low Volatility ETF (512890) has seen a net inflow of 934 million yuan over seven consecutive trading days, reaching new highs in both share and fund size [1] - As of June 6, the ETF's total shares and size reached 15.227 billion shares and 17.778 billion yuan, respectively, marking record highs since its inception in December 2018 [1][2] Index Performance - The Dividend Low Volatility Index reached a new high on June 4, with an annualized return of 13.82% and a volatility of only 25% [2] - The index's dividend yield over the past year is 6.33%, surpassing 90.7% of the time over the last decade, making it an attractive option for long-term investors in a declining interest rate environment [2] Investor Interest - The connected funds of the Dividend Low Volatility ETF have gained popularity among retail investors, with a total of 829,800 account holders as of the end of 2024 [2] - The Y share class of the connected fund has become the first index fund eligible for personal pension investments, achieving a scale of over 100 million yuan by March 31, 2025 [2] Management Expertise - The ETF is managed by Huatai-PB Fund, which has over 18 years of experience in dividend index investment and has developed a diverse range of dividend-themed ETFs [2]

Group 1 - Ping An Asset Management has received official approval from the National Financial Regulatory Administration to establish Hengyi Holding (Shenzhen) Private Fund Management Co., Ltd. [1] - The first phase of Hengyi Holding's fund will have a scale of 30 billion yuan, focusing on "long-term investment and value investment" in high-quality listed companies that align with policy guidance and insurance capital allocation needs [2] - The registered capital of Hengyi Holding is 300 million yuan, and it will be located in Qianhai, Shenzhen [2] Group 2 - Several insurance companies have recently applied for or received approval to participate in long-term investment pilot programs [3] - The total balance of insurance funds in China reached 34.9 trillion yuan by the end of the first quarter of 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of 16.7% [4] - The proportion of stock allocation by insurance funds has increased, with life insurance companies reaching 8.4% and property insurance companies at 7.6%, marking recent highs [4] Group 3 - The trend of increasing stock allocation by insurance funds is a response to policy encouragement and aims to address investment bottlenecks [4] - High dividend stocks are expected to become a significant focus for insurance companies in the context of low interest rates, with an anticipated annual increase of 300 billion to 400 billion yuan in high dividend allocations over the next three years [4]

Group 1: Market Activity - Net purchases included 5.241 billion in Yingfu Fund, 0.761 billion in China Construction Bank, 0.298 billion in China Ping An, and 0.109 billion in China Mobile [1] - Net sales included 1.544 billion in Xiaomi Group-W, 0.899 billion in Tencent Holdings, 0.4 billion in SMIC, and 0.113 billion in Meituan-W [1] - Southbound funds have recorded net sales of Tencent for seven consecutive days, totaling 9.992 billion HKD, and net sales of Xiaomi for seven consecutive days, totaling 7.80339 billion HKD [4] Group 2: Company Insights - China Construction Bank is expected to maintain stable credit growth due to financial policies and interest rate cuts, which will alleviate margin pressure and support asset quality [5] - China Ping An is focusing on shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks, with a strategy of "comprehensive finance + medical care and elderly care" showing results [5] - Xiaomi Group is projected to see a strong first-quarter performance with a revenue increase of 44.6% year-on-year to 109 billion, and adjusted net profit expected to rise 54% to 10 billion [6] - Tencent Holdings anticipates a first-quarter revenue of 180.022 billion, a 13% year-on-year increase, with net profit for equity holders expected to be 47.821 billion, a 14% increase [6] - China Mobile's revenue and net profit growth is expected to slow, but capital expenditure reductions are anticipated to stabilize free cash flow from 2025 to 2026 [6] Group 3: Stock Ratings and Changes - UBS upgraded SMIC's rating from "sell" to "neutral," raising the target price from 14 HKD to 43 HKD, reflecting improved operational capabilities and a positive outlook [7] - BlackRock increased its stake in Meituan-W from 5.97% to 6.01%, while Morgan Stanley reduced its stake from 5.05% to 4.99% [7]