本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不 做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状 明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | | | | | 2026/1/8 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 数据指标 | | 项目类别 | 最新 环比 数据指标 | | 最新 | 环比 | | EC主力收盘价 | | | 1706.000 | -168.3↓ EC次主力收盘价 | 1163.3 | -58.20↓ | | 542.70 | | 期货盘面 | EC2602-EC2604价差 -54.40↓ EC2602-EC2606价差 | | 291.00 | -65.20↓ | | EC合约基差 | | | 89.83 +73.10↑ | | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | | | 20008 -1803↓ | | | | | 1795 ...

| 瑞达期货 | | --- | | RUIDA FUTURES CO.,LTD. | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 最新 环比 | 最新 | | --- | --- | --- | | | EC主力收盘价 -66.9↓ EC次主力收盘价 1182 -23.10↓ | 1779.100 | | 期货盘面 | EC2602-EC2604价差 -51.80↓ EC2602-EC2606价差 356.20 -99.50↓ | 597.10 | | | EC合约基差 +93.60↑ | 16.73 | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | -3185↓ | 21811 | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） 53.19↑ SCFIS（美西线）（周） 1,250.12 -51.29↓ SCFI（综合指数）（周） 103.40↑ 集装箱船运力（万标准箱） 1,227.97 0.00↑ | 1795.83 1656.32 | | 现货价格 | CCFI（综合指数）（周） 21.94↑ CCFI（欧线）（周） 1,519.06 45.16↑ | 1146.67 | | | 波罗的海干散货指数（日） 21.0 ...

研究所 航运研发报告 F3084078 投资咨询证号： Z0018656 联系方式： :jiaruilin_qh@chinastock.com.cn | 银河期货集运指数 | | | | （欧线） 日报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 增减幅 | 持仓量(手) | 增减幅 | | EC2602 | 1,855.5 | 54.2 | 3.01% | 22,903.0 | 6.50% | 26,046.0 | 7.94% | | EC2604 | 1,198.0 | 32.0 | 2.74% | 8,562.0 | 89.97% | 22,629.0 | 8.17% | | EC2606 | 1,389.0 | 21.1 | 1.54% | 500.0 | 20.77% | 2,201.0 | 2.28% | | EC2608 | 1,502.3 | 2.3 | 0.15% | 127.0 | 95.38% | 1, ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot market for the Container Shipping Index (Europe Line) shows increased gaming characteristics and is in a high - level oscillation state [1][4]. - For the 2602 contract, it is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see strategy. For the 2604 contract, short - selling on rallies has a relatively higher probability of success, and in the context of further relaxation of supply - demand and a continuous decline in the freight rate center, the bottom valuation of the 04 contract can be anchored to the lowest point of the 2025 SCFIS index, 1031 points. For the 2610 contract, pay attention to the progress of the second - stage cease - fire negotiation in Gaza and arrange short positions on rallies in the medium - to - long term [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overview - In the past week, the absolute value of January's shipping capacity changed little, about 314,000 TEU/week. Maersk added an extra ship in wk3, and COSCO's AEU3 voyages from wk5 to wk7 were delayed by one week. The shipping schedules in January became more even, with the market capacity from week 1 to 5 ranging between 308,000 and 323,000 TEU. The OA Alliance's capacity peak occurred in wk4 (144,200 TEU), and the PA Alliance's in wk3 (57,700 TEU). The Gemini Alliance and MSK had relatively stable capacity deployment [4]. - The latest February shipping schedule includes 6 empty sailings and 4 undetermined ones, with an average weekly capacity of 287,000 TEU/week (excluding the capacity of the 4 undetermined voyages). Except for the GEMINI Alliance, other shipping companies have not released their Chinese New Year suspension plans [4]. - In terms of geopolitics, the Middle - East geopolitical situation did not significantly cool down during the New Year's Day holiday. In the demand aspect, most shipping companies felt that the cargo volume of BCO/NVO was good in January, but the FAK side was average. The cargo volume peak may appear around mid - January, then decline and drop more sharply from early February [5]. 3.2 Price - SCFIS Index: In wk1 (December 29, 2025 - January 4, 2026), there were 17 departing vessels (318,000 TEU), of which 7 (129,000 TEU) were delayed from wk52. It is subjectively estimated that the SCFIS index on January 5 may be around 1860 points [16]. - Spot Freight Rates: The freight rate height of the 2602 contract: As MSC raises the freight rate by $300/FEU in the second half of the month, the current static FAK average in wk3 is around $2,860/FEU. The inflection point time: First, observe Maersk's cabin opening situation in wk4 next Tuesday, then observe the pricing strategies of the PA Alliance and OA Alliance for the second half of the month. The decline rate: After the freight rate peaks, the initial decline may not be large [6][19]. 3.3 Demand Side - Asian exports to Europe: The container trade volume between Asia and Europe (North - West Europe + Mediterranean) has shown certain fluctuations from 2011 to 2025. For example, in 2025, the trade volume in January was 1,768,400 TEU, and in February was 1,114,400 TEU [31]. - Asian exports to North America: The container trade volume between Asia and North America also fluctuated from 2011 to 2025. In 2025, the trade volume in January was 2,118,800 TEU, showing an 8.2% year - on - year increase [34]. 3.4 Supply Side - Supply Chain Risk Events: Geopolitical situations are disturbing. There are risks of regional escalation in the Middle - East, and instability in Yemen. Although some shipping companies have made trial voyages through the Red Sea, it does not mean the full - scale resumption of normal operations on the Red Sea route [48][49]. - Shipping Schedules: The shipping capacity in January changed little, and the February schedule has some empty sailings and undetermined voyages [4][52]. - Turnover Efficiency: It includes aspects such as sailing speed, idle capacity, regional congestion, and congestion at major ports in Europe, North America, and Asia [59][61][64]. - Static Capacity: In December, the top ten shipping companies received new ships of different sizes and deployed them on different routes. In the next three months, they are also expected to receive a number of new ships [77][80].

2025 年 12 月 23 日 集运指数（欧线）：近月关注开舱指引，远月关注 加沙和谈进展 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | EC2512 1,630.1 | 0.21% 186 | | | 1,983 | -160 | 0.09 | | 0.06 | | | EC2602 1,719.8 | 3.66% 31,624 | | | 31,507 | -136 | 1.00 | | 0.85 | | | EC2604 1,128.8 | 1.66% 4,225 | | | 18,837 | 145 | 0.22 | | 0.20 | | | EC2512 - E ...

2025 年 12 月 11 日 集运指数（欧线）：PA 联盟超预期带动情绪好转 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 商 品 研 究 期货研究 资料来源：同花顺 iFind，Geek Rate，公司官网，国泰君安期货研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 研 究 所 期货研究 41 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | EC2512 | 1,655.1 | -0.36% | 321 3,169 | | -114 | 0.10 | | 0.14 | | 期货 | EC2602 | 1,665.2 | 3.41% | 35,894 31,382 | | 669 | 1.14 | | 0.62 | | | E ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The container shipping index (European Line) showed a strong performance. The 2512 contract closed at 1871.0 points, up 5.08%, and the 2602 contract closed at 1606.0 points, up 3.66%. The market anticipates Maersk to support the FAK price in late November, and the 2512 contract has factored in the expected price increase in December [10]. - For the 2512 contract, adopt a low - buying strategy. The PSS - adjusted long - term contract price strengthens the FAK bottom. If the December capacity increase is limited, the contract valuation may rise to 2050 - 2150 points [13]. - The 2602 contract has a stronger speculative nature, involving factors such as the late Spring Festival in 2026, potential resumption of routes, and the height of December freight rates [14]. - For the 2604 contract, maintain a strategy of short - selling on rallies on a quarterly basis [14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: EC2510 closed at 1871.0 points, up 5.08%; EC2512 at 1606.0 points, up 3.66%; EC2602 at 1194.4 points, up 2.60%. The price difference between EC2512 - EC2604 is 183.1, and between EC2602 - EC2604 is - 228.5 [1]. - **Freight Index**: The SCFIS European route index is 1140.38 points, up 10.5% week - on - week; the SCFIS US West route index is 863.46 points, up 0.1% week - on - week. The SCFI European route is $1246/TEU, up 8.8% bi - weekly; the SCFI US West route is $2153/FEU, up 11.2% bi - weekly [1]. - **Spot Freight Rates**: In week 46, the lowest FAK quote is around $1900/FEU from the PA Alliance. The FAK average price is about $2150/FEU, equivalent to 1500 - 1550 points on the SCFIS index [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: In November, the weekly average capacity is 292,000 TEU/week, up 12.1% month - on - month and 5.4% year - on - year, with 12 blank sailings. In December, there are 3 undetermined and 3 blank sailings, and the weekly average capacity is around 308,000 TEU/week. Port congestion in Northwest Europe persists. In the demand side, shipping company loadings in early November varied [12]. 3.2 Macro News - Israel's Defense Minister claimed to have killed dozens of Hamas commanders; the Israeli military carried out a targeted strike in northern Gaza; Trump made remarks about Hamas; Qatar's Prime Minister communicated with the US regarding Israel's violation of the cease - fire agreement; the UN found activity near Iran's nuclear reserves, but Iran is not actively enriching uranium [7][8]. 3.3 Trend Strength The trend strength of the container shipping index (European Line) is 0, indicating a neutral trend [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The container shipping market in September was in the traditional off - season, with spot freight rates falling rapidly and breaking through the first - half low. As the long - term contract season approaches, some shipping companies have successively raised their spot quotes for the second half of October. The market should focus on the implementation of shipping companies' price increase announcements and their flight suspension plans during the long - term contract price - support season at the end of the year, as well as the impact of tariff policies on shipping volume and rhythm [3][4][18] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In the off - season, spot freight rates were in a rapid decline channel. In September, the spot freight rate broke through the first - half low, with the late - September freight rate center dropping to around 1300 - 1600 US dollars/FEU, and the difference between major shipping companies narrowing to around 200 US dollars/FEU. As of September 19, 2025, the SCFI European line had dropped to 1052 US dollars/TEU. Recently, major shipping companies have successively announced price increases for the second half of October, with the target around 1800 - 2000 US dollars/FEU, and CMA has pre - released an online price of around 3100 US dollars/FEU for November [3] 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Demand side: In September, the cargo volume continued to decline seasonally, and shipping companies still faced cargo - collection pressure. Trump's statement about a new round of strong tariffs may affect shipping volume and rhythm. Supply side: The average weekly capacity in September/October/November 2025 was 281,800/249,700/285,900 TEU respectively. The capacity in October decreased slightly compared with last week's schedule, while the capacity in September and November increased slightly. Freight rate side: In September, the off - season spot freight was still in a decline channel due to weak cargo volume. With the spot gradually bottoming out and the expectation of the long - term contract season from November to December, some shipping companies have successively raised their spot quotes for the second half of October. Attention should be paid to shipping companies' flight suspension plans during the long - term contract price - support season before the end of the year and the impact of tariff rhythm [4] 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: The trading logic of the EC2512 contract has switched, and long positions should be held. Arbitrage: Conduct low - level rolling operations for the October - December reverse spread, and hold long positions for the February - April positive spread [6] 3.2 Market Review - In September, the container shipping market entered the traditional off - season. Under the background of increasing cargo - collection pressure on shipping companies and declining ship loading rates, the falling spot freight rates drove the EC2510 contract to continuously test the lower limit. Then, with the start of a new price - support season, it stopped falling and rebounded. The EC contract generally continued to decline in September. When the spot quote fell below the first - half low, the decline exceeded market expectations. Under the pessimistic sentiment, the valuation of the October contract continued to be revised downwards, and the EC2510 contract fell below 1050 points within the month. However, with the approach of the long - term contract season, the expectation of price increases drove the December contract to repair the discount upwards, and some shipping companies' increase in the October spot quote supported the upward movement of the contract price, with the valuation of the October contract expected to be revised upwards. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the price increase announcements [8] 3.3 Fundamental Situation 3.3.1 Freight Rate and Price Increase - In September, shipping companies continued to lower freight rates, and the spot freight rate center dropped rapidly, breaking through the first - half low within the month. As the long - term contract season approaches, major shipping companies have successively raised their October spot quotes, and the decline of the October spot freight rate is expected to slow down. The average value of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) in September was 1346.92 points (as of the week of September 19), a month - on - month decrease of 8.51% and a year - on - year decrease of 44.68%. As of the week of September 19, the comprehensive SCFI container freight index was 1198.21 points, a month - on - month decrease of 14.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 56.05%. The global main - route capacity has increased slightly. With the arrival of the National Day Golden Week, major shipping companies have successively announced flight suspension plans, with a suspension rate of about 15% in October [18][19][37] 3.3.2 New Ship Delivery and Order - In August, the global new container ship delivery volume was 163,300 TEU, a month - on - month increase of 19.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 37.2%. In August 2025, the number of new container ship orders was 27, with a total of 162,000 TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 51.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 77.8%. As of September 2025, the global container shipping capacity reached 32.309 million TEU, a year - on - year increase of 7.3%. From September to December 2025, nearly 477,000 TEU of container ships over 8000 TEU are to be delivered, including about 333,800 TEU of ships over 12,000 TEU [48] 3.3.3 Idle Capacity - In September, the idle capacity increased slightly compared with last month. Shipping companies chose to slow down to digest the excess capacity. As of September 22, 2025, the global idle container shipping capacity was 633,000 TEU, an increase of 1.2% compared with the same period last month and 4.5% compared with the same period last year [63] 3.3.4 Port and Shipping Conditions - As of September 24, 2025, the number of container ships bypassing the Suez Canal on the Europe - Mediterranean route was 271, accounting for about 70%, and the bypassing was still in a stable state. The global port situation remained stable. Although some European ports were congested due to extreme weather in September, the problem was gradually diluted against the background of declining cargo volume. As of September 22, 2025, the Clarksons global container ship congestion index was 30.6%, showing a significant decline compared with August. The average waiting time for global container ships (over 8000 TEU, 7 - day moving average) was 7.92 hours as of September 21, 2025, a decrease of 2.7 hours compared with the end of August. The Poland - Belarus border port reopened on the early morning of September 25 [76][84][85] 3.3.5 China's Export Situation - In August, China's exports showed resilience, with the goods trade continuing to grow steadily, but there were obvious differentiations among different products and trading partners. In August, China's total export volume was 321.81 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%, with the growth rate slowing down compared with July. The main reason was the expanded decline in exports to the US, which dragged down the total exports. However, the diversification of China's trade buffered the external economic and trade environment, supporting the positive year - on - year growth of exports in August. Specifically, China's exports to the US decreased by 33.1% year - on - year in August, with the decline expanding by 11.4 percentage points compared with July. Exports to ASEAN increased by 22.5% year - on - year, and exports to the EU increased by 10.4% year - on - year, accounting for 16.1% of China's total exports. In the first eight months, China's exports of mechanical and electrical products reached 10.6 trillion yuan, a growth of 9.2%, accounting for more than 60% of the total export value, with obvious growth in the exports of integrated circuits and automobiles, both with increases of more than 10%. The growth rate of labor - intensive products decreased by 1.5% [111][113] 3.3.6 European Economic Situation - In September, the European manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell back into the contraction range, indicating that the foundation of the European economic recovery was not solid and the demand was still fragile. The eurozone's composite PMI in September rose slightly to 51.2, remaining in the expansion range for many consecutive months, mainly due to the good performance of the service industry. The service industry PMI in September was 51.4, slightly exceeding expectations, but the manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell below the boom - bust line to 49.5, reflecting the overall weak performance of the European manufacturing industry. Germany's economy grew driven by the service industry, with the composite PMI in September rising significantly to 52.4, showing a strong recovery momentum, but its manufacturing industry remained weak, with the manufacturing PMI in September at 48.5, and there was still production pressure in the future. France's economic situation was the opposite of Germany's. In September, its economic prosperity further deteriorated, with the output of manufacturing and service enterprises declining monthly and the decline intensifying. The manufacturing PMI in September fell to 48.1, and the service industry PMI fell to 48.9 [128] 3.3.7 Container Shipping Volume - In July 2025, the container shipping volume from Asia to Europe was 1.7584 million TEU, a year - on - year increase of 10.1%, with the growth rate increasing by 8.7 percentage points compared with June. The container shipping volume from Asia to North America was 2.124 million TEU, a year - on - year decrease of 3%, with the decline remaining the same as last month. The container shipping volume from Asia to the world was 10.355 million TEU, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%, with the growth rate increasing by 6.8 percentage points compared with June. The global container shipping volume was 16.575 million TEU, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%, with the growth rate increasing by 2.5 percentage points compared with June [132] 3.4 Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - Freight rate: The off - season spot freight rate is still in a rapid decline channel. In September, with sufficient capacity supply, the spot freight rate broke through the first - half low within the month. The current late - September freight rate center has dropped to around 1300 - 1600 US dollars/FEU, and the difference between major shipping companies has narrowed to around 200 US dollars/FEU. As of September 19, 2025, the SCFI European line has dropped to 1052 US dollars/TEU. Recently, major shipping companies have successively announced price increases for the second half of October, with the target around 1800 - 2000 US dollars/FEU, and CMA has pre - released an online price of around 3100 US dollars/FEU for November. Supply and demand: On the demand side, the cargo volume continued to decline seasonally in September, and shipping companies still faced cargo - collection pressure. Recently, Trump said that a new round of strong tariffs would be implemented, and attention should be paid to the impact of subsequent tariff policies on shipping volume and rhythm. On the supply side, the average weekly capacity in September/October/November 2025 was 281,800/249,700/285,900 TEU respectively. The capacity in October decreased slightly compared with last week's schedule, while the capacity in September and November increased slightly. Strategy: Unilateral: The trading logic of the EC2512 contract has switched, and long positions should be held. Arbitrage: Conduct low - level rolling operations for the October - December reverse spread, and hold long positions for the February - April positive spread [138][139]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that the shipping index (European line) main contract has increased by over 5% in a single day, currently reported at 1363 points [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the documents 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The container shipping spot market is in a smooth downward trend during the off - season, and the 10 - contract valuation is expected to be revised downwards. The market will be under pressure from tariffs in the second half of the year, and the competition among shipping companies may intensify [2][4][158] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - After the peak season cargo volume reached its peak and declined, shipping companies faced greater pressure to secure cargoes, and the ship loading rate decreased. The spot freight rate entered a rapid downward channel. As of August 22, 2025, the SCFI European line was reported at $1668/TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 8.35% [3] 3.1.2 Market Outlook - On the demand side, the peak - season cargo volume has declined from its high point, and the loading rate of major shipping companies has dropped. Since August 1, the trade pressure from the US reciprocal tariff increase has emerged, and the freight rate to the US West Coast has hit a new low this year. On the supply side, the average weekly capacity from August to October 2025 is 297,800/298,900/270,400 TEU respectively. The spot freight rate is expected to continue to decline rapidly during the off - season. The freight rate is expected to continue its downward trend, and the freight rate center should not be overestimated in the second half of the year [4] 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: Bearish and volatile. The valuation center of the 10 - contract is expected to be revised downwards and needs to be adjusted according to the spot situation. Arbitrage: Roll - operate the 10 - 12 reverse spread at low prices [6] 3.2 Second Part: Market Review - In August, the cargo volume reached its peak and then declined, driving the freight rate down. The EC market followed the spot and showed a weakening trend. The freight rate reduction by shipping companies exceeded market expectations, causing the EC2510 to break below the 1400 - point support level in mid - August. The spot freight rate is expected to continue to decline smoothly during the off - season, and the 10 - contract freight rate center may be revised downwards [8] 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Situation 3.3.1 Shipping Companies Lower Quotes, Spot Freight Enters Downward Channel - In August, as the cargo volume declined, shipping companies lowered their spot quotes. The average SCFI in August (as of August 22) decreased by 12.17% month - on - month and 53.58% year - on - year. The competition among shipping companies is expected to intensify in the second half of the year [19][20] 3.3.2 Container New - Ship Delivery Declines in July - In July, the global container new - ship delivery was 104,300 TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 51.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 50.5%. The global container idle capacity increased significantly in August. The shipping capacity supply in September is still abundant [49][69] 3.3.3 Export Growth in July Slightly Exceeds Expectations, Tariff Pressure in the Second Half - In July, China's exports were $321.78 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. Although exports to the US continued to decline, exports to the EU and ASEAN increased. The second half of the year will face greater pressure from tariffs [121] 3.4 Fourth Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation 3.4.1 Future Outlook - The freight rate pressure is prominent, and the shipping companies have successively lowered their spot quotes. The freight rate center in the second half of August has dropped below $2500/FEU. The supply of shipping capacity in September is abundant, and the cargo volume is not optimistic under the tariff pressure. The spot freight rate is expected to continue to decline rapidly, and the overall freight rate center in the second half of the year is expected to move down [158] 3.4.2 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: Bearish and volatile. The valuation center of the 10 - contract is expected to be revised downwards and needs to be adjusted according to the spot situation. Arbitrage: Roll - operate the 10 - 12 reverse spread at low prices [159]