预测赛道将是即Perp、稳定币之后最热，项目估值最高的赛道也是散户能参与撸毛的赛道值得重点参与何币 (@hebi555):Perp爆火之后下一个爆点赛道将是预测市场polymarket发币将引爆整个赛道一个不亚于Perp的赛道目前币安在重点关注这个市场了并且投资了https://t.co/MQJ4W0hnkGbieget已经下场做了预测项目了usv领投了@theclearingco的种子轮1500W美金 ...

Perp爆火之后下一个爆点赛道将是预测市场polymarket发币将引爆整个赛道一个不亚于Perp的赛道目前币安在重点关注这个市场了并且投资了https://t.co/MQJ4W0hnkGbieget已经下场做了预测项目了usv领投了@theclearingco的种子轮1500W美金 ...

事件发生在Polymarket估值飙升至80亿美元的关键时刻。纽约证券交易所母公司本周刚宣布将向该 平台投资高达20亿美元，彰显了主流金融机构对预测市场日益增长的兴趣。 午夜异动：神秘账户的精准狙击 戏剧性的一幕发生在奥斯陆时间周五凌晨，在诺贝尔和平奖宣布前约12小时，一个名为"6741"的新注 册账户突然开始大举押注Machado获奖。 此时Machado在专家预测和媒体报道中均未被列为热门候选人，在Polymarket上的获奖概率仅为 3.7%。但在"6741"的推动下，她的胜率在数分钟内飙升至31.5%，随后进一步攀升至73.5%。 在诺贝尔和平奖宣布前约12小时，一个名为"6741"的新注册账户在Polymarket突然开始大举押注 Machado获奖，在"6741"的推动下Machado的胜率在数分钟从5%左右内飙升至70%，最终斩获超过 5万美元利润。在这个交易量相对较小的市场中，这些押注足以显著改变赔率。 一位神秘交易员在诺贝尔和平奖揭晓前12小时的精准押注，引发了关于内幕交易的质疑风暴。 据媒体周六报道， 在委内瑞拉反对派领袖María Corina Machado获得2024年诺贝尔和平奖之 ...

前几天我刚分享了 Altimeter Capital 合伙人 Freda Duan 对 Prediction Market 的深度解读《 零营收！估值 90 亿美金独角兽：Prediction Market 炸裂硅 谷 》，没想到今天 Kalshi 就宣布又完成了新一轮的巨额融资。 难得的是，此次 Kalshi 的 3 亿美金 D 轮由 a16z 和红杉（Sequoia）联合领投，跟投方则包括了 Paradigm、Coinbase Ventures 、 General Catalyst 、 Spark Capital 和 CapitalG，估值达到了 50 亿美金。 而 Kalshi 在 6 月份才完成了 1.85 亿美金的 C 轮融资，当时估值为 20 亿美金，4 个月时间估值涨了 30 亿美金。 Kalshi 在博客里说，此轮融资为 Kalshi 的全球扩张铺平了道路，将 为预测市场创建一个单一、统一的流动性池 ，创建一个真正统一的预测市场。 Kalshi 的全球交易所将全球各地的交易者与同一组事件联系起来，从而深化了每个市场的流动性和价格发现，目前支持全球 140 多个国家。 a16z 合伙人 Chri ...

无论你是 Solana 还是 BNB 爱好者都无所谓现在是预测市场的季节！ ...

Cathie Wood Loads Up On DraftKings As Prediction Market Pulls Back 10/02/2025Cathie Wood, Ark Invest buy more than 500k shares of DraftKings stock. The sportsbook has tumbled on prediction market competition. 10/02/2025Cathie Wood, Ark Invest buy more than 500k shares of... Wall Street continues to wade deeper into the world of wagers. New York Stock Exchange owner Intercontinental Exchange agreed to invest $2 billion in prediction market operator Polymarket, the companies announced. Bookies DraftKings and ...

来源：滚动播报 纽约证券交易所所有者据悉正考虑向预测市场网站Polymarket投资20亿美元。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the rapid growth and potential of Prediction Markets, particularly in the context of the upcoming 2024 U.S. elections, highlighting their ability to provide real-time insights into public sentiment and event probabilities [2][10][29] - Altimeter Capital, a leading tech investment fund, has recognized the disruptive potential of Prediction Markets, which are gaining traction in Silicon Valley and beyond, with significant valuations for platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi [2][16][21] - The article outlines the characteristics of successful disruptive companies, noting that Prediction Markets exhibit user growth, a vast total addressable market (TAM), and alignment with current social and regulatory trends [6][7][12] Group 2 - Prediction Markets are defined as platforms where users can bet on the outcomes of various events, with prices reflecting the market consensus on probabilities, thus providing a more accurate gauge than traditional polls [8][9] - The rise of Prediction Markets is attributed to several factors, including the decline of mainstream media trust, the desire for tools that reveal truth, and the increasing participation of retail investors in the market [25][22] - The article compares Prediction Markets to traditional sports betting, highlighting their broader scope, regulatory advantages, and innovative pricing mechanisms that enhance user engagement [26][29] Group 3 - The article discusses the differences between Polymarket and Kalshi, noting their distinct approaches to market structure and regulatory compliance, with Polymarket being more decentralized and Kalshi focusing on compliance and partnerships with established platforms like Robinhood [21][24] - It highlights the significant growth in trading volumes for Prediction Markets, with Kalshi experiencing an 80% quarter-over-quarter increase, indicating a shift towards mainstream acceptance [16][20] - The introduction of new features, such as the Parlay function by Kalshi, is seen as a strategic move to compete with established sports betting platforms, further blurring the lines between different types of betting and trading [27][28]

Core Insights - Robinhood Markets has identified a new growth driver through its prediction markets feature, which has led to a significant increase in share price and year-to-date returns [1][3][4] Growth Potential - The platform hosted over two billion event contracts in Q3, marking a 100% growth from one billion in Q2, indicating strong traction in prediction markets [3][4] - Event contracts generated approximately $20 million in revenue for Q3, which could annualize to around $80 million, representing about 1.7% of the expected total revenue of $4.77 billion over the next 12 months [5][6] Market Disruption - Kalshi, Robinhood's partner in prediction markets, has launched new betting features that could disrupt traditional sports betting companies like DraftKings and Flutter, as evidenced by the immediate drop in their stock prices following Kalshi's announcement [2][7][8] - The American Gaming Association reported that sportsbooks generated approximately $13.7 billion in revenue in 2024, a 24% increase from 2023, highlighting the potential market size for Robinhood's event contracts [8] Long-Term Outlook - Analysts have raised their price targets for Robinhood based on the early success of its prediction markets, with an average target of $142.50, which is close to the stock's recent closing price [11][12] - Despite a high valuation and some analysts predicting downside potential, the company's ability to innovate and find new revenue streams suggests a promising long-term outlook [12]

此外，Robinhood在预测市场领域的强势切入也引起广泛关注。通过与受监管的Kalshi合作，公司提供 预测市场合约交易服务，使用户可以对选举、体育赛事等事件进行投注。这一创新举措不仅推动了股价 单日涨幅超过12%，还为公司寻找到了新的增长动力。第三季度，公司客户已累计交易超过20亿份预测 市场合约，占总交易量的一半。 Robinhood的战略布局显示出其对未来增长的雄心壮志。通过预测市场与核心股票、期权及加密货币交 易的双轮驱动，公司不断模糊金融市场与博彩行业的边界。这一创新尝试不仅帮助Robinhood巩固其市 场地位，更为其带来可观的增长前景。投资者在考虑入手Robinhood股票时，不妨关注其在新兴市场的 动向以及核心业务的持续发展。 9月30日，Robinhood Markets的股价飙升4.72%，连续两日涨幅达到17.57%，盘中最高价更是创下历史 新高。对于投资者来说，这无疑是一则令人振奋的消息。高盛也对其表现表示认可，将目标价从134美 元上调至152美元，维持"买入"评级。 近日，Robinhood Markets的发展势头十分强劲，多项利好因素推动其股价表现。在刚刚发布的2025年上 ...