Key Takeaways DVN is trading above its 50 and 200-day SMAs, signaling a potential bullish momentum shift. Devon Energy's diversified basins and low-cost strategy support strong cash flow and profitability. DVN trades at 3.73X EV/EBITDA, well below the industry average of 10.99X and its five-year median.Devon Energy Corporation (DVN) is trading above its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages ("SMA"), signaling a bullish trend. DVN has a multi-basin portfolio and focuses on high-margin assets that hold ...

EBITDA 或迎来兑现，重视被低估的 AIDC20250706 摘要 国内 AIDC 上市公司 EV/EBITDA 估值普遍低于国际水平，通常在 10 到 15 倍之间，相较于国际龙头公司 20 到 30 倍的估值存在明显低估，表 明国内市场存在价值重估空间。 成熟 IDC 项目 REITS 发行显示出高估值，润泽科技和万国数据的 REITS 项目 EV/EBITDA 分别约为 14 倍和 17 倍，认购倍数均超 160 倍，与国 内上市公司估值倒挂，突显市场对 AIDC 资产的认可。 国内 AIDC 上市公司 EBITDA 具备持续增长潜力，受益于 2024 年超大 规模 AIDC 招标项目在 2025 年下半年陆续交付，预计 2026 年将迎来 显著增长，且未来有望加速。 国产 ASIC 芯片的推出将增加对 AI DC 资源的需求，因其功耗高于先进 制程芯片，长期来看，将推动 AIDC 行业 EBITDA 持续增长，进一步支 撑国内上市公司估值提升。 可通过短期、中期、长期 EBITDA 预测计算 AIDC 公司市值空间，以 20 倍 EV/EBITDA 为基准，根据公司 EBITDA 规划推算潜在市值 ...

Key Takeaways ENB trades at a 15.36x EV/EBITDA, above the industry average of 14.05x, sustaining its valuation premium. Enbridge expects steady cash flow growth from its C$28B secured capital project backlog through 2029. 98% of ENB's EBITDA is backed by regulated or take-or-pay contracts, shielding earnings from volatility.Enbridge Inc. (ENB) is trading at a 15.36x trailing 12-month Enterprise Value to Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization (EV/EBITDA), which is at a premium compa ...

作者 | 贝隆行业研究 数据支持 | 勾股大数 据（www.gogudata.com） 在资本市场，估值既是企业价值的温度计，也是投资者预期的风向标。 市场上估值方法并不少见，但哪种方法更好，这其实见仁见智。但不同的行业特征，往往需要 匹配不同的估值体系，这有利于准确把握企业的真实价值。 以民办高教行业来看，其估值过去主要聚焦在PE层面，但是若从EV/EBITDA这一更侧重于评 估企业核心业务价值的估值方法来看，可以发现这个行业存在被忽视的价值，并亟待市场重新 认知和定价。 接下来不妨以港股上市公司中国春来（01969.HK）的案例来一同看看其中的机会。 01 估值体系重构，从PE到EV/EBITDA的底层逻辑 首先需要回答，高教行业的估值为什么要从PE切换到EV/EBITDA？ 这就是需要提到两者的计算方法。 PE计算公式为PE=市值/净利润。其主要反映了投资者愿意为每单位净利润支付的价格。 而EV/EBITDA的计算则包括两个核心概念。 其一，企业价值（EV）。它反映了收购公司所需的全部成本，包含股权和债权价值。 其二，息税折旧摊销前利润（EBITDA）。它反映企业核心经营现金流，剔除资本结构和非现 金支 ...

Core Viewpoint - Energy Transfer LP (ET) has shown a strong performance with a 6% increase in stock price over the last month, outperforming the industry growth of 3.4% [1][2] Group 1: Company Overview - Energy Transfer operates a vast pipeline network exceeding 130,000 miles across 44 U.S. states, focusing on strategic acquisitions and organic growth [7] - The company has significant export capabilities, with the ability to export over 1.1 million barrels per day of natural gas liquids (NGLs) and 1.9 million barrels per day of crude oil, holding an estimated 20% share of the global NGL export market [9] - Nearly 90% of Energy Transfer's revenues come from fee-based contracts, providing stable cash flow and reducing exposure to commodity price volatility [12] Group 2: Recent Developments - Energy Transfer is expanding its natural gas liquids export facilities to meet rising global demand and has entered agreements to supply natural gas for new gas-fired power plants [2][10] - The company has received connection requests from nearly 200 data centers across 14 states, indicating strong demand from the digital infrastructure sector [11] Group 3: Financial Performance - The current quarterly cash distribution rate is 32.75 cents per common unit, with management raising distribution rates 14 times in the past five years [13] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates year-over-year earnings growth of 12.5% for 2025 and 0.49% for 2026 [14] - Energy Transfer units are trading at a trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA of 10.32X, which is below the industry average of 11.6X, suggesting the firm is undervalued [17] Group 4: Comparative Analysis - Energy Transfer's trailing 12-month return on equity (ROE) is 11.47%, lower than the industry average of 13.95% [20] - In comparison, ONEOK's ROE stands at 15.58%, indicating stronger profitability [22]

Occidental Petroleum Corporation’s (OXY) shares are currently trading at a premium compared to the Zacks Oil and Gas - Integrated - United States industry. OXY’s current trailing 12-month Enterprise Value/Earnings before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortization (EV/EBITDA) is 4.99X compared with the industry average of 4.76X. It indicates that the company is presently marginally overvalued compared to its industry.Occidental, being a low-cost operator and possessing high-quality assets in different loca ...

Core Viewpoint - Devon Energy Corporation (DVN) has shown a year-to-date stock gain of 1.6%, contrasting with a 22.8% decline in the Zacks Oil & Gas - Exploration and Production - United States industry and a 1.3% decline in the broader Zacks Oil and Energy sector [1] Performance Analysis - Over the past year, DVN's stock has declined by 32.7%, indicating a gradual recovery path, while Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) experienced a 31.7% decline [2] - Devon Energy's return on invested capital (ROIC) stands at 8.71%, outperforming the industry average of 7.33% [15] Factors Contributing to Performance - The company benefits from a well-balanced commodity mix, focusing on oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids, with a production replacement rate of 154% in 2024 [7] - DVN has a diversified, multi-basin portfolio of high-margin oil and gas assets, enhancing its asset base through strategic acquisitions [8] - The acquisition of Grayson Mill Energy's Williston Basin assets expanded net acreage from 123,000 to 430,000 acres, expected to triple production from 50,000 to 150,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (Boe/d) [9] - A low-cost operating model supports profitability, with ongoing efforts to reduce drilling and completion expenses and streamline the workforce [10] Earnings Performance - DVN has reported strong earnings results, with an average earnings surprise of 6.09% over the last four quarters, despite missing expectations in the most recent quarter [12][13] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for DVN's earnings per share for 2025 and 2026 has declined by 15.23% and 18.2%, respectively, in the past 60 days [17] Valuation - Devon Energy's shares are currently trading at a trailing 12-month Enterprise Value/Earnings before Interest Tax Depreciation and Amortization (EV/EBITDA TTM) of 3.61X, significantly lower than the industry average of 9.39X, indicating an inexpensive valuation [20] Summary - Devon Energy's multi-basin assets and balanced exposure to various commodities contribute positively to its performance, with a better return than the industry and an attractive valuation [21]

Group 1: Core Insights - Citigroup has set a target price of HKD 32.70 for China Shenhua (601088) based on the expected 2025 EV/EBITDA valuation, with a buy rating [1] - The company’s coal, power, railway, port, and coal-to-chemical businesses have been assigned valuation multiples of 3.7x, 9.9x, 5.6x, 10.8x, and 5.9x respectively, aligning with the average levels in the H-share market [1] - The target price corresponds to a projected P/E ratio of 10.5x and a P/B ratio of 1.3x for 2025 [1] Group 2: Coal Price Outlook - In April 2025, China's coal imports decreased by 16% year-on-year, with management expecting total imports for the year to fall below 500 million tons, down from approximately 540 million tons in 2024 [2] - With rising summer electricity demand and positive outcomes from US-China tariff negotiations, management anticipates a rebound in China's thermal coal consumption starting in early June, which will support coal prices [2] Group 3: Production Costs and Pricing - The company expects a year-on-year increase of about 6% in the unit cost of self-produced coal in 2025, primarily due to rising labor costs and increased mining depth [3] - In the first quarter of 2025, the electricity price for Shenhua decreased, mainly due to price reductions in Guangdong and Fujian provinces where most of its power plants are located [4] - Despite falling coal prices, management believes that China will not significantly reduce coal production, with some mines potentially increasing output to maintain profit levels [5] Group 4: Capital Expenditure - For the Xinjie coal mine project, the unit capital expenditure for the first and second mines is higher than CNY 2000 per ton, while the unit capital expenditure for the third to sixth mines will be lower due to preparatory capital expenditures [6]

Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains its adjusted EBITDA forecast for Wynn Macau (01128) for 2025 and 2026, with the current stock price corresponding to 8.0 times the 2025 EV/EBITDA. The firm maintains an outperform rating and a target price of HKD 6.90, implying a 26% upside from the current stock price [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Wynn Macau reported Q1 2025 results with net revenue of USD 866 million, a year-on-year decline of 13% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 7%, recovering to 69% of Q1 2019 levels [2]. - Adjusted property EBITDA for Q1 2025 was USD 252 million, down 26% year-on-year and 14% quarter-on-quarter, recovering to 65% of Q1 2019 levels, and falling short of Bloomberg's consensus estimate of USD 274 million [2]. Group 2: Management Insights - Management indicated that tariff policies may impact and delay capital expenditure plans for U.S. operations, but expect no effect on capital and operational expenditures in Macau [3]. - In April 2025, the mid-market betting volume remained stable compared to the same period in 2024, with direct VIP turnover showing year-on-year growth [3]. - The management emphasized that high-end mid-market business is the core development area for the Macau gaming industry, despite a highly competitive marketing rebate environment [3]. - The Wynn Palace's culinary landmark "Fleur" officially opened in May 2025, and the average fixed operating cost for Q1 2025 was USD 2.64 million, expected to maintain this level throughout the year [3]. - During the May Day Golden Week in 2025, mid-market betting volume increased compared to the same period in 2024, with hotel occupancy reaching 100% [3].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has included Yum China Holdings Inc. (YUMC.N) in its Top Pick list, indicating a positive outlook for the company [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance and Targets - The company reiterated its target for a 4%-6% year-over-year growth in system sales by 2025 [2]. - The net new store target for 2025 remains at 1,600-1,800, with an acceleration in store expansion expected in the second half of the year [3]. - Same-store sales growth (SSSG) is expected to fluctuate quarterly, with a focus on increasing customer traffic, while average transaction value (TA) is under pressure [3]. Group 2: Recent Developments - Overall sales momentum during April and the Labor Day holiday met company expectations [4]. - The impact of aggressive promotions from delivery platforms on the delivery business is considered limited, with a focus on retaining core customers through its own super app [4]. - KFC reported a 4% decline in average transaction value in Q1 2025, attributed to a higher proportion of lower-value delivery orders and an increase in KCOFFEE and breakfast orders [4]. - Pizza Hut (PH) will continue to focus on low-price strategies to attract demand, with long-term improvements expected in restaurant profit margins [4]. Group 3: Valuation and Market Position - The valuation method suggests a target EV/EBITDA multiple of 10x for 2025, based on a 30% premium relative to the average EV/EBITDA of the Chinese consumer sector since Yum China's IPO in 2016 [5]. - Current expected EV/EBITDA for the consumer sector in 2025 is 8.5x, which is deemed reasonable due to the company's superior performance in cost savings and efficiency [5]. - The company has a market capitalization of approximately $16.54 billion, with a price target set at $57.00 [6].