Macroeconomic Overview - The U.S. GDP growth for Q3 exceeded expectations, with an initial annualized rate of 4.3%, compared to a forecast of 3.3% and a previous quarter's final value of 3.8% [4] - Personal consumption expenditures rose from 2.5% in Q2 to 3.5% in Q3, surpassing the expected 2.7% [4] - Exports increased significantly by 8.8%, while imports decreased by 4.7% [4] Industry Insights Precious Metals - International gold and silver prices reached historical highs, with COMEX gold futures at $4,515 per ounce (up 1.02%) and silver at $71.61 per ounce (up 4.44%) [7] - The rise in precious metals prices is attributed to market expectations of continued interest rate cuts by the U.S. government [7] Medical Supplies - The sixth batch of high-value medical consumables procurement has been officially launched, including drug-coated balloons and urological intervention consumables, with bidding set for January 13, 2026 [8] - The introduction of anchor pricing and a multi-repetition mechanism is expected to prevent malicious competition, although significant price declines are anticipated [8] Automotive Industry - Retail data for January-November 2025 shows that major brands like BYD, Volkswagen, and Toyota dominate the market, with the top ten brands holding a combined market share of 51.7% [10] - The competitive landscape remains fragmented, with ongoing price wars likely due to the lack of a dominant market structure [10] - Demand resilience in the battery supply chain is noted, but profitability will depend on product structure and bargaining power [10] Air Conditioning Sector - The air conditioning industry experienced a significant decline in production and sales in November, with production and sales down approximately 37% and 32% year-on-year, respectively [12] - The decline is attributed to high base effects from previous government subsidy policies and abnormal weather conditions [12] - A cautious outlook is maintained for the industry, with production plans for January 2026 indicating a year-on-year increase of about 21% [12]

2025 12 2026 2026 2026 PPI Z0016413 gaoxiang@nawaa.com Z0022951 liaocy@nawaa.com 0571-81727107 0571-89727506 | 1. | 2025 | | 1 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1.1 | | 1 | | | 1.2 2025 | | 6 | | | 1.3 1 -3 | | 8 | | | 1.4 4 -6 | | 8 | | | 1.5 7 -8 | | 8 | | | 1.6 9 -12 | | 8 | | 2. | 2026 | | 10 | | | 2.1 | | 10 | | | 2.2 PPI | | 12 | | | 2.3 | | 14 | | 3. | | | 19 | | | 3.1 | | 19 | | | 3.2 | | 19 | | | 3.3 | | 19 | 2011 1290 | 1.1 | | 300 | | 1 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1.2 | | 300 | | 2 | | 1.3 ...

LATEST: ⚡️ Bitcoin fell below $86,000 today as markets await key US inflation data releases this week, with analysts saying the upcoming CPI and PCE reports could set the tone for the rest of December. https://t.co/1L0mte1Ahj ...

US reported that core PCE rose 2.8% year-on-year in September, down from 2.9% in the previous month, marking a three-month low. The market had expected a third consecutive month of 2.9%. ...

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Let's bring in Kevin Green now who joins me to get us across some more data and we just have hitting the tape of the 10hour. The ISM services numbers talk us through what you're seeing there as far as the PMIs today. Kevin.>> Yeah, actually if you're looking at ISM services PMIs are actually better than the street's expectations in two areas here. If you're looking at the overall number that came in at 52.6%, Street was looking for 52 even and that's actually better than what we saw last uh month at 52.4% h ...

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Labor Market Analysis - Private sector job growth swung positive in October to 42,000 from negative 29,000, with larger companies contributing more than midsize and smaller companies [1] - Alternative data, like that from ADP, suggests pre-existing trends in the labor market are continuing at a similar rate, with modest job creation and moderating wages [3] - Labor demand may not be as strong as desired from a cyclical perspective, indicating rates could be lower [4] - Changes to job creation levels due to policy changes like immigration are considered output gap neutral, as additional people both work and consume [6][7][8] - Low levels of growth may result from changing border policy, but monetary policy doesn't automatically respond to this [9][10] Monetary Policy Considerations - Monetary policy aims to balance supply and demand, avoiding both inflation and deflation [7] - Expansionary supply-side policies, like full expensing provisions from the tax bill, incentivize investment in new factory equipment and structures, pushing demand higher in the short run and expanding the supply side in the longer run [12][13][14] - Regulations shape the structure of the economy by influencing production possibilities and industry composition [15] - Monetary policy responds to the output gap, the outlook for inflation, and changes in the neutral rate [18] - An increase in national savings typically leads to lower interest rates [23] Inflation and Interest Rates - One perspective is that current policy is too restrictive, and a faster move to a neutral rate is preferred to avoid undue harm to the job market [25][26][28] - Tariffs are not viewed as a significant driver of inflation, and shelter/housing market inflation is expected to decrease more quickly than some colleagues anticipate [27][28] - High interest rates may already be causing a recession in parts of the economy, particularly housing [30] - The median projection from the September meeting suggested a third rate cut this year, implying a cut in December [35] - Core services inflation, when adjusted for imputed services like portfolio management fees, is closer to 2%, specifically 23%-24% [39][46] - Shelter disinflation is a critical factor in the inflation outlook, with expectations of benign shelter inflation due to market rents running at approximately 1% [47][49] Trade and Economic Uncertainty - Increased uncertainty over the tariff and trade environment could negatively impact the economy [21] - A ruling against the president's authority to issue tariffs could increase uncertainty, potentially pressuring growth and hiring [20][21]

I'm a little bit more concerned about the direction of inflation to be honest with you than I am employment. The Fed's got a much more difficult degree of landing because believe it or not, the Fed gets a weekly update of the ADP estimate. Most people don't understand that.So, the Fed's not flying blind when it comes to the labor market, right. Inflation's a little bit more difficult. They're probably going to be talking to the MIT Harvard billion uh prices project.and to get an idea of what's going on. The ...

Stagflation Definition and Components - Stagflation is defined as a combination of weak or negative growth, high unemployment, and high inflation [1] - Economic growth is measured by GDP (Gross Domestic Product), which tracks what's made inside US borders [2] - Inflation is tracked using CPI (Consumer Price Index), representing a household shopping basket, and PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures), a broader measure favored by the Federal Reserve [3][4] - Job market health is assessed via the unemployment rate and monthly payroll changes reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, with weekly unemployment claims offering higher-frequency insights [5] Historical Context and Current Assessment - The 1970s experienced significant stagflation with unemployment exceeding 7-8%, double-digit inflation, and contracting GDP [6] - The pandemic period saw a different pattern: initial COVID impact led to unemployment spikes and GDP decline, but without immediate price increases (stag without flation) [7] - In 2022, stimulus measures contributed to inflation exceeding 9%, while the economy contracted modestly and unemployment remained low [7] - Currently, unemployment is moderate, PCE is in the high 2% range, and GDP is relatively strong, not indicative of 1970s-style stagflation [8] Market and Economic Indicators to Watch - Precious metals, such as gold (up over 40% this year) and silver (approaching 60%), tend to perform well during periods of elevated inflation and Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [8] - Key data points to monitor include jobs data, CPI, PCE, and GDP, with particular attention to services inflation (shelter, insurance, healthcare costs) [9] - Energy prices and the strength of the US dollar are important factors, as an oil price surge or a weaker dollar could quickly reignite headline inflation [9][10] - Real incomes (workers' paychecks after inflation) should be monitored relative to demand; a decline in savings and increased credit card usage could signal potential issues [10][11]