交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-7-28 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：近期尿素盘面震荡。国内宏观政策、煤炭走势带来原料端利好影响。国内供应方 面，日产及开工率仍处于偏高位置，库存再度累库。需求端，工业需求中复合肥开工持续回落， 三聚氰胺开工亦回落，农业需求再次转淡。国内尿素整体供过于求仍明显，出口政策未超预期放 开。交割品现货1790（+40），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2509合约基差-13，升贴水比例-0.7%，偏空； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存142.2万吨（+18.2），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向上，收盘价位于20日线上，偏多； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净多，翻多，偏多； • 6. 预期：尿素主力 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-07-24燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 燃料油： 1、基本面：亚洲低硫燃料油炼油利润率连续第二日小幅回升，而含硫0.5%船用燃料油近月价差在短期供 应充足背景下，持续徘徊于三个多月来最窄的贴水水平；新加坡380CST高硫燃料油现货贴水从7月21日的 6.58美元/吨收窄至6美元/吨，得益于托克集团对8月下半月装船货报出坚挺买盘；中性 2、基差：新加坡高硫燃料油为401.14美元/吨，基差为83元/吨，新加坡低硫燃料油为505.5美元/吨，基差 为146元/吨，现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：新加坡燃料油7月16日当周库存为2035.9万桶，减少45万桶；偏多 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年7月24日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年6月PVC产量为199.134万吨，环比减少1.40%；本周样本企业 产能利用率为77.59%，环比增加0.01个百分点；电石法企业产量34.032万吨，环比增加0.63%, 乙烯法企业产量11.589万吨，环比增加1.31%；本周供给压力有所增加；下周预计检修有所减 少，预计排产增加幅度可观。 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为40.11%，环比减少1个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游型材开 工率为34.55%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为33.75%，环比减少3.92个百 分点，低于历史平均水平；下游薄膜开工率 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-7-24） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：近期国家能源局组织开展煤矿生产情况核查，焦煤供应有收紧预期。而下游需求持续向好， 市场交投氛围活跃，近日煤矿线上竞拍成交结果良好，仅个别资源出现流拍现象，加之目前焦炭市场持 续走强，市场信心增加，支撑煤价延续稳中偏强的局面；偏多 2、基差：现货市场价1010，基差-125.5；现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：钢厂库存791.1万吨，港口库存321.5万吨，独立焦企库存790.2万吨，总样本库存1902.8万吨， 较上周增加45.9万吨；偏空 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格在20日线上方；偏多 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：成材价格上涨，带动焦钢市场情绪向好，部分焦钢企业 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **PTA**: In the short term, PTA is expected to have weak drivers and its price will follow cost fluctuations. The PTA devices are operating stably, the Sanfangxiang device is planned to be put into production, while the terminal demand is in the off - season, polyester sales are weak, and inventory pressure is emerging. Polyester manufacturers are calling for production cuts. Attention should be paid to the progress of new PTA device production and the fluctuation of downstream polyester load [5]. - **MEG**: In the short term, the price center of ethylene glycol is expected to move upwards. In mid - July, the arrival of ethylene glycol at ports is limited, and the visible inventory is expected to decline at the beginning of this week. From July to August, the supply - demand of ethylene glycol will turn to a tight balance. Attention should be paid to the power system recovery in Saudi Arabia [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 PTA Analysis - **Fundamentals**: On July 22, PTA futures fluctuated and closed higher. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was light, with a small number of polyester factories making bids. The spot basis was weak. The negotiation and transaction price range was 4740 - 4805. The mainstream spot basis on July 23 was 09 + 2 [6]. - **Basis**: The spot price was 4772, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 22, with the futures price higher than the spot price [6]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of PTA factories was 3.86 days, with no change compared to the previous period [6]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average. The net position of the main contract was short, and the short position was decreasing [6]. 3.2 MEG Analysis - **Fundamentals**: On July 22, the price center of ethylene glycol moved upwards. The market negotiation was acceptable. Affected by the restart of some Saudi devices, the futures price declined slightly in the morning, and the spot price was around 4460 yuan/ton. In the afternoon, the futures price rose, and the high - level spot price was above 4520 yuan/ton. The price center of the external market also moved upwards [7]. - **Basis**: The spot price was 4490, and the basis of the 09 contract was 43, with the spot price higher than the futures price [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in East China was 49.40 tons, an increase of 1.37 tons compared to the previous period [7]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average. The net position of the main contract was short, and the short position was decreasing [7]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Balance Tables - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Table**: It shows the supply and demand data of PTA from January 2024 to December 2025, including production capacity, production, import, consumption, and inventory [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Table**: It presents the supply and demand data of ethylene glycol from January 2024 to December 2025, including production rate, production, import, consumption, and port inventory [11]. 3.4 Price and Spread Analysis - **Price**: It includes the spot price of PET bottle chips, production profit, capacity utilization rate, inventory, and price differences between different contracts of PTA and MEG [13][16][23][29]. - **Spread**: It involves the basis of PTA and MEG, month - to - month spreads, and spot spreads [26][29][36]. 3.5 Inventory Analysis - It includes the inventory of PTA factories, MEG ports, PET slices, and various types of polyester products in China [39][41][44]. 3.6开工率分析 - **Upstream of Polyester**: It shows the operating rates of PTA, paraxylene, and ethylene glycol from 2020 to 2025 [50]. - **Downstream of Polyester**: It presents the operating rates of polyester factories and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms in the PTA industry chain from 2020 to 2025 [54]. 3.7 Profit Analysis - **PTA**: It shows the processing fees of PTA from 2022 to 2025 [58]. - **MEG**: It presents the production profits of different production methods of ethylene glycol from 2022 to 2025 [61]. - **Polyester Fibers**: It shows the production profits of polyester short - fibers, DTY, POY, and FDY from 2022 to 2025 [64].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. For LLDPE, the market is influenced by cost support and macro - policy promotion on the positive side, while facing weak demand on the negative side. For PP, similar factors are at play, with cost support and macro - policy driving growth, but also suffering from weak demand [4][6][7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In June, the PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The Caixin PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May, back above the critical point. On July 14, the US threatened to impose secondary sanctions on Russian crude oil within 50 days. On July 18, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a growth - stabilization plan for key industries including the petrochemical sector. In the supply - demand aspect, it's the off - season for agricultural films, and the packaging film market has slightly improved, with overall weak downstream demand. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7180 (unchanged), and the fundamentals are generally neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is - 36, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.5%, which is neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 58.7 million tons (+3.3), which is bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract shows a volatile trend on the disk. Driven by the macro - growth - stabilization plan, with the off - season for agricultural film demand and weak downstream demand, and a neutral industrial inventory, it is expected that PE will show a volatile trend today [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost support and macro - policies promoting the growth of the petrochemical industry are positive factors, while weak demand is a negative factor [6]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macro - economic indicators in June show a certain situation. The supply - demand side is in the off - season for downstream demand, and the demand for pipes, plastic weaving, etc., is weak. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7140 (unchanged), and the fundamentals are generally neutral [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 127, with a premium - discount ratio of 1.8%, which is bullish [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 56.6 million tons (-1.5), which is neutral [7]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [7]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [7]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract shows a volatile trend on the disk. Driven by the macro - growth - stabilization plan, with weak downstream demand for pipes, plastic weaving, etc., and a neutral industrial inventory, it is expected that PP will show a volatile trend today [7]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost support and macro - policies promoting the growth of the petrochemical industry are positive factors, while weak demand is a negative factor [8]. Spot, Futures, and Inventory Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of delivery products is 7180 (unchanged), the price of the 09 contract is 7216 (unchanged), the basis is - 36 (unchanged), the number of warehouse receipts is 5822 (unchanged), the comprehensive PE factory inventory is 58.7 million tons (unchanged), and the PE social inventory is 53.7 million tons (unchanged) [9]. - **PP**: The spot price of delivery products is 7140 (unchanged), the price of the 09 contract is 7013 (unchanged), the basis is 127 (unchanged), the number of warehouse receipts is 10083 (unchanged), the comprehensive PP factory inventory is 56.6 million tons (unchanged), and the PP social inventory is 25.8 million tons (unchanged) [9]. Supply - Demand Balance Tables - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have shown different growth trends. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4319.5, with a growth rate of 20.5% [14]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption of polypropylene have also changed. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to be 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [16].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - Polyolefins: Not rated - Pure Benzene: Not rated - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Polyester (PX, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Bottle Chip): PX - ☆☆☆, PTA - ☆☆☆, Ethylene Glycol - ★☆☆, Short Fiber - ☆☆☆, Bottle Chip - ☆☆☆ [1] - Chlor - Alkali (PVC, Caustic Soda): ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass and Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall chemical market shows a complex situation with different products having various supply - demand relationships and price trends. Some products are affected by factors such as inventory changes, seasonal demand, and cost fluctuations [2][3][4] Summary by Product Methanol - The main contract of methanol fluctuates in a narrow range. Import arrivals increase significantly, and ports accumulate inventory rapidly. Domestic producers in major production areas plan autumn maintenance, but some may postpone due to good profits. Downstream demand is for immediate needs, and production enterprise inventory changes little. The expected reduction in inland supply supports the market, but demand enters the off - season [2] Urea - The urea futures price rises first and then oscillates and回调 during the day. Daily production decreases slightly, and overall supply remains sufficient. Agricultural demand is approaching the end of the peak season, and the operating rate of compound fertilizer producers is still low. Producer inventory transfers to downstream and ports, with producers' inventory decreasing significantly and port inventory increasing rapidly. The domestic urea market is expected to have a loose supply - demand situation in the short term, and with the expected release of new export quotas, the market is likely to oscillate strongly within a range [3] Polyolefins - The main contracts of polyolefin futures continue to fluctuate in a narrow range, with a weakening trend. The cost of oil prices fluctuates widely without clear guidance. For polyethylene, the restart of some maintenance devices increases supply expectations, and short - term demand from North China's agricultural film has limited driving effect. For polypropylene, a high number of maintenance devices provide support, but weak downstream demand suppresses the market [4] Pure Benzene - Boosted by the overnight oil price rebound, the price of pure benzene rises in the morning but then falls. Domestic production increases slightly, and port supplies are abundant. There is a seasonal improvement in supply - demand expected in the second half of the third quarter, but pressure returns in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to conduct monthly spread band operations, with a positive spread strategy in the medium - short term and a negative spread in the fourth quarter. Considering the long - term bearish view on oil prices, shorting pure benzene at high prices is advisable [6] Styrene - The main contract of styrene futures has a narrow - range consolidation. The main port's inventory accumulates significantly, with refrigerated tank capacity in short supply. More selling and less buying in the spot market lead to a decline in spot prices and a weakening basis, which drags down the futures market [7] Polyester - PX and PTA prices rise first, then fall, and rebound in the afternoon. PX supply - demand improves, but low downstream PTA processing margins and weakening demand from long - filament inventory and cash - flow problems drag it down. PTA has a strong expectation of inventory accumulation, and the spot processing margin is at a low level with a repair drive. For ethylene glycol, domestic production decreases, and imports are low, with port inventory reduction and unstable overseas device operation boosting the market. Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices follow the raw materials, with short - fiber having a slight inventory reduction and repair of spot processing margins, while bottle - chip has a decline in industry operation rate and a slight increase in inventory [8] Chlor - Alkali - PVC fluctuates in a narrow range. Calcium carbide producers lower prices, and producer inventory decreases slightly while social inventory increases. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali improves, and new device production increases supply. Domestic demand is weak, and export deliveries decrease. Caustic soda futures price is weak. Profit improvement leads to increased device operation, but high - price sales are difficult. Alumina demand provides some support, but non - aluminum downstream demand is average [9] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass prices decline during the day. Mid - and downstream restocking sentiment improves, industry profit rises slightly, and production capacity increases slightly. Processing orders are weak. Soda ash prices oscillate downward. Industry inventory accumulates, production increases, and the photovoltaic industry plans to cut production. The supply - demand situation of glass is better than that of soda ash, and the price spread is expected to widen [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The zinc market shows a trend of oscillating and strengthening. The overall sentiment is relatively positive, but there may be short - term oscillations. The report suggests that the Shanghai zinc contract ZN2509 will oscillate and strengthen [2][18]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Zinc Fundamental Data - In April 2025, global zinc sheet production was 1153000 tons, consumption was 1130200 tons, with a surplus of 22700 tons. From January to April, production was 4451400 tons, consumption was 4507900 tons, with a shortage of 56500 tons. From January to April, global zinc ore production was 4040600 tons [2]. - The spot price of zinc was 22140, and the basis was +20, showing a neutral situation [2]. - On July 17, LME zinc inventory increased by 125 tons to 121475 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventory warrants decreased by 598 tons to 11563 tons, also neutral [2]. - The previous day, Shanghai zinc showed an oscillating and rebounding trend, closing above the 20 - day moving average, with the 20 - day moving average trending upwards, indicating a positive situation [2]. - The main positions were net long, and the long positions increased, which is positive [2]. 3.2 Zinc Futures Market Quotes on July 17 - Multiple zinc futures contracts showed price increases. For example, the contract 2509 had an opening price of 21990, a closing price of 22120, and a price increase of 120. The total trading volume of all contracts was 194120 lots, and the total trading value was 2141848110 yuan [3]. 3.3 Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes on July 17 - The prices of various zinc - related products increased. Zinc concentrate in Linlizhou was priced at 16850 yuan/ton (+50), zinc ingots in Langshang were 22140 yuan/ton (+70), etc [4]. 3.4 National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (July 7 - July 17, 2025) - The total inventory in major Chinese markets remained at 7.42 million tons on July 17. Compared with July 10, there were increases and decreases in different regions, with a net change of 0 [5]. 3.5 Zinc Warehouse Receipt Report of the Futures Exchange on July 17 - The total zinc warehouse receipts were 11563 tons, a decrease of 598 tons. Decreases mainly occurred in Guangdong and Tianjin [6]. 3.6 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics on July 17 - The LME zinc inventory increased by 125 tons to 121475 tons [7]. 3.7 National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes on July 17 - The prices of zinc ingots from different smelters increased. For example, the price of 0 zinc ingots from Hunan Zhuzhou Smelting was 22470 yuan/ton (+60), and that from a certain producer was 26310 yuan/ton (+960) [12]. 3.8 Domestic Refined Zinc Production in June 2025 - The planned production value in June was 459700 tons, and the actual production was 471800 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 11.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. The planned production for July is 470300 tons [14]. 3.9 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes on July 17 - Domestic zinc concentrate processing fees for different regions with a 50% grade ranged from 3400 - 4000 yuan/metal ton, and the import processing fee for 48% grade was 60 US dollars/dry ton [16]. 3.10 Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking Table on July 17 - In the zinc contract zn2509, in terms of trading volume, Citic Futures ranked first with 23753 lots, an increase of 5493 lots. In terms of long positions, Citic Futures also ranked first with 20897 lots, an increase of 503 lots. In terms of short positions, Citic Futures ranked first with 12007 lots, an increase of 1004 lots [17]. 3.11 Short - term View - The previous trading day, Shanghai zinc showed an oscillating and rebounding trend, with increased trading volume. Both long and short positions increased, with more short - position increases. Technically, the price closed above the long - term moving average, the short - term indicator KDJ rose, and the trend indicator showed that the long - term strength decreased while the short - term strength increased, and the market may oscillate in the short term [18].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-7-17） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1、、基本面：近期部分煤矿受地质条件及安全检查等因素影响，开工一定程度受限。近期煤价上涨， 促进贸易氛用活跃，煤矿出货顺畅，上游库存压力继续下降。且线上竞拍成交表现较好，多数煤种溢价 成交，流拍现象较少，整体看焦煤需求表现依旧较好；偏多 2、基差：现货市场价940，基差43；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存774万吨，港口库存312万吨，独立焦企库存669.5万吨，总样本库存1775.5万吨，较 上周减少19.3万吨；偏多 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格在20日线上方；偏多 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：焦炭第一轮涨价落地，焦化企业利润亏损得到缓解，焦企开工多维持高位，目前持正常发货， 厂内库存多保持低位，对优质煤种资源采购积极性不减，预计短期焦煤价格或暂稳运行。 焦煤 利 多：1.铁水产量上涨 2.供应难有增量 利 空：1.焦钢企业对原料煤采购放缓 2.钢材价格疲软 重要 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-7-16） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦炭： 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：个别煤矿因产量尚未恢复，煤矿方面产能释放有限。随着焦炭价格第一轮上涨落地，焦煤 市场情绪进一步提振，部分原料煤库存低位焦企仍积极补库为主，带动产地煤价延续涨势，且下游仍有 一定补库需求，短期市场将延续偏强态势；偏多 2、基差：现货市场价940，基差28.5；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存774万吨，港口库存312万吨，独立焦企库存669.5万吨，总样本库存1775.5万吨，较 上周减少19.3万吨；偏多 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格在20日线上方；偏多 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：目前多数钢厂对焦炭第一轮提涨已正式接受，此次落地后将会对焦 ...