Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) futures will run stronger. For Shanghai rubber, it will maintain a volatile and stronger trend on Tuesday, and for synthetic rubber, it may maintain a stronger trend on Wednesday [5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term**: Weak [1] - **Medium - term**: Oscillating [1] - **Intraday**: Stronger [1] - **Reference View**: Run stronger [1] - **Core Logic**: As domestic natural rubber production areas in Yunnan and Hainan are approaching the end of the season, the supply of domestic full - latex is expected to decline. Also, the domestic automobile production and sales data in the rubber market are optimistic. Under the good supply - demand structure, the 2601 contract of Shanghai rubber futures maintained a volatile and stronger trend on Tuesday night, with the futures price slightly rising [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term**: Weak [1] - **Medium - term**: Oscillating [1] - **Intraday**: Stronger [1] - **Reference View**: Run stronger [1] - **Core Logic**: Recently, the macro sentiment is good. Crude oil futures at home and abroad are supported by the rising winter heating demand and show a volatile and stronger trend, which strengthens the cost support for domestic synthetic rubber futures. Coupled with the optimistic domestic automobile production and sales data in the rubber market, the market has shifted from "expectation - driven" to "reality - dominated". On Tuesday night, domestic synthetic rubber futures showed a volatile and stable trend, with the futures price slightly rebounding [7].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年11月19日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年10月PVC产量为212.812万吨，环比增加4.79%；本周样本企业产能利 用率为78.51%，环比减少0.03个百分点；电石法企业产量34.355万吨，环比减少0.52%,乙烯法企业产 量13.491万吨，环比减少8.08%；本周供给压力有所减少；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产少量增加 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为49.54%，环比减少0.06个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游型材开工率 为36.96%，环比减少0.64个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为40.6%，环比增加.2个百分 点，高于历史平均水平；下游薄膜开工 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the natural rubber industry is neutral [4][9] Core Viewpoint - The market has support at the bottom, and it is advisable to buy on dips [4] Summary by Directory Daily Tips - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventories are starting to decrease, and tire operating rates are at a high level [4] - The basis is -445 with a spot price of 14,850, showing a bearish signal [4] - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while the inventory in Qingdao increased week - on - week and year - on - year [4] - The price is above the 20 - day line with the 20 - day line trending upwards, showing a bullish signal [4] - The main positions are net short with an increase in short positions, showing a bearish signal [4] Fundamental Data Spot Price - The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) increased on November 18 [8] - The basis strengthened on November 18 [35] Inventory - The exchange inventory has been continuously decreasing recently [14] - The inventory in Qingdao has rebounded recently [17] Import - The import volume has rebounded [20] Downstream Consumption - Automobile production and sales have seasonally rebounded [23][26] - Tire production reached a new high in the same period [29] - Tire industry exports reached a new high in the same period [32] Multi - Empty Factors Bullish Factors - Downstream consumption is high [6] - Spot prices are resistant to decline [6] - Domestic anti - involution [6] Bearish Factors - Supply is increasing [6] - Domestic economic indicators are bearish [6] - There are trade frictions [6]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年11月18日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年10月PVC产量为212.812万吨，环比增加4.79%；本周样本企业产能利 用率为78.51%，环比减少0.03个百分点；电石法企业产量34.355万吨，环比减少0.52%,乙烯法企业产 量13.491万吨，环比减少8.08%；本周供给压力有所减少；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产少量增加 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为49.54%，环比减少0.06个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游型材开工率 为36.96%，环比减少0.64个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为40.6%，环比增加.2个百分 点，高于历史平均水平；下游薄膜开工 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the 01 contract showed a downward trend. Next week, demand may remain sluggish, with a slight increase in scheduled production and the futures price likely to adjust within a narrow range [5][6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The 01 contract declined this week, opening at 4,613 yuan/ton on Monday and closing at 4,608 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly decline of 0.10% [5] - **Supply Side**: In October 2025, PVC production was 2.12812 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.70%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 78.51%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 343,550 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.52%, and that of ethylene enterprises was 134,910 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.08%. Supply pressure decreased this week. Next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, and scheduled production may increase slightly [5] - **Demand Side**: The overall downstream operating rate was 49.54%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream profile operating rate was 36.96%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.64 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe operating rate was 40.6%, a month - on - month increase of 1.2 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream film operating rate was 71.07%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.72 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin operating rate was 78.03%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to fall, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain sluggish [5] - **Cost and Profit**: The calcium carbide method profit was - 819.69 yuan/ton, with losses increasing by 6.50% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The ethylene method profit was - 491 yuan/ton, with losses increasing by 5.50% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2,186.35 yuan/ton, with profits increasing by 0.40% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. Scheduled production may be under pressure [6] - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 322,350 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.65%. Calcium carbide factory inventory was 242,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.99%. Ethylene factory inventory was 79,450 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.64%. Social inventory was 532,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.45%. The in - stock days of production enterprises were 5.4 days, a month - on - month decrease of 1.81%. Overall inventory is at a neutral level [6] 3.2 PVC Futures Market - **Base Price Trend**: Relevant charts show the base price trend of PVC from 2022 to 2025 [8][9] - **Price and Volume Analysis**: The price and trading volume trends of the main 01 contract from October to November 2025 are presented, including opening, high, low, and closing prices, as well as moving averages of different periods [12] - **Spread Analysis**: The spread trends of the main contracts in 2024 and 2025 are shown [14][15] 3.3 PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related Products**: It includes the price, cost, profit, operating rate, and inventory trends of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda from 2016 to 2025 [17][20][22][24][27] - **PVC Supply Trend**: The capacity utilization rates, profits, daily and weekly production, and maintenance volumes of calcium carbide and ethylene methods from 2018 to 2025 are presented [30][32] - **Demand Trend**: It includes the daily sales volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, downstream average operating rate, and the operating rates of different downstream products of PVC from 2019 to 2025. It also shows the real estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, and completion area, as well as social financing scale increment, M2 increment, and local government new special bonds [34][39][43][45] - **Inventory Situation**: The exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory inventory, ethylene factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days from 2019 to 2025 are presented [46][47] - **Ethylene Method - Related Data**: The import volumes of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and relevant price spreads from 2018 to 2025 are shown [48] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The monthly export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import data of PVC from September 2024 to October 2025 are presented [52] 3.4 Technical Analysis - The main 01 contract showed a downward trend this week, and it is expected to adjust within a narrow range next week [57]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of PVC decreased this week, and the expected maintenance is expected to decrease next week, with a slight increase in scheduled production. The current demand may remain sluggish, and the PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4584 - 4632. The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is not smooth [6][9][14]. - There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages. Negative factors include the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [13]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - On November 14, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4590 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 18 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a neutral situation. The factory inventory was 32235 tons, a decrease of 3.65% month - on - month, and the social inventory was 53230 tons, a decrease of 2.45% month - on - month. The MA20 of the disk is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20, showing a bearish trend. The net position of the main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, also showing a bearish trend [11]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Supply Side - In October 2025, the PVC output was 2.12812 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.79%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 78.51%, a decrease of 0.03 percentage points month - on - month. The output of calcium carbide enterprises was 34355 tons, a decrease of 0.52% month - on - month, and the output of ethylene enterprises was 13491 tons, a decrease of 8.08% month - on - month. Next week, the expected maintenance is expected to decrease, and the scheduled production is expected to increase slightly [6]. 3.2.2 Demand Side - The overall downstream operating rate was 49.54%, a decrease of 0.06 percentage points month - on - month, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream profiles was 36.96%, a decrease of 0.64 percentage points month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream pipes was 40.6%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points month - on - month, higher than the historical average. The shipping cost is expected to decline, and the domestic PVC export price is competitive. The current demand may remain sluggish [6]. 3.2.3 Cost Side - The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 819.69 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 6.50% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 491 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 5.50% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton spread was 2186.35 yuan/ton, with the profit increasing by 0.40% month - on - month, lower than the historical average, which may put pressure on production scheduling [8]. 3.3 PVC Market Overview - The report provides yesterday's market data, including prices, price changes, month - to - month spreads, inventory, and downstream operating rates of different types of PVC enterprises and products, as well as cost and profit data [17]. 3.4 PVC Futures Market 3.4.1 Basis Trend - The report shows the basis trend of PVC from 2022 to 2025, including the relationship between the basis, the East China market price of PVC, and the closing price of the main contract [20]. 3.4.2 Futures Price and Volume Trends - It presents the price, trading volume, and position changes of the PVC futures main contract from October to November 2025 [23]. 3.4.3 Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread - It shows the spread trends of different contract months (such as 1 - 9, 5 - 9) of PVC futures from 2024 to 2025 [26]. 3.5 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method 3.5.1 Lanthanum Coke - The report shows the price, cost - profit, operating rate, inventory, and daily output trends of lanthanum coke from 2016 to 2025 [29]. 3.5.2 Calcium Carbide - It presents the price, cost - profit, operating rate, maintenance loss, and output trends of calcium carbide from 2018 to 2025 [32]. 3.5.3 Liquid Chlorine and Raw Salt - It shows the price, output trends of liquid chlorine from 2020 to 2025, and the price and monthly output trends of raw salt from 2019 to 2025 [34]. 3.5.4 Caustic Soda - It provides the price, cost - profit, operating rate, output, maintenance volume, apparent consumption, inventory, and flake caustic soda inventory trends of 32% caustic soda (Shandong) from 2019 to 2025, as well as the cost - profit trends of Shandong chlor - alkali [36][39]. 3.6 PVC Fundamental - Supply Trend - It shows the capacity utilization rates of calcium carbide and ethylene methods, the profit trends of calcium carbide and ethylene methods, daily output, weekly maintenance volume, weekly capacity utilization rate, and weekly output of sample enterprises of PVC from 2018 to 2025 [41][43]. 3.7 PVC Fundamental - Demand Trend - It presents the daily sales volume of PVC traders, weekly pre - sales volume, weekly production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, downstream average operating rate, operating rates of profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin of PVC, as well as the profit, cost, monthly output, and apparent consumption of paste resin from 2019 to 2025. It also shows the real estate investment completion amount, housing construction area, new housing start - up area, commercial housing sales area, and housing completion area from 2018 to 2025, as well as the social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) year - on - year from 2019 to 2025 [46][48][53]. 3.8 PVC Fundamental - Inventory - It shows the trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory inventory, ethylene factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days from 2019 to 2025 [57]. 3.9 PVC Fundamental - Ethylene Method - It presents the import volumes of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, FOB spread of ethylene method (Tianjin - Taiwan), and vinyl chloride import spread (Jiangsu - Far East CIF) from 2018 to 2025 [59]. 3.10 PVC Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It shows the monthly import, output, factory inventory, social inventory, demand, and export data of PVC from September 2024 to October 2025 [62].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the 01 contract was in a downward trend this week, with the Monday opening price at 9,230 yuan/ton and the Friday closing price at 9,020 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 2.27%. It is expected that the supply-side production schedule will decrease next week, demand recovery will be at a low level, and cost support will increase. The futures market is expected to have a bullish sideways adjustment [4][5]. - For polysilicon, the 01 contract was in an upward trend this week, with the Monday opening price at 53,000 yuan/ton and the Friday closing price at 54,045 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 1.97%. It is expected that the supply-side production schedule will continue to decrease next week, demand will show a continuous decline, and cost support will remain stable. The futures market is expected to have a bullish sideways adjustment [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: This week, the industrial silicon supply was 91,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week. The sample enterprise output was 45,440 tons, a 0.79% decrease. The expected monthly operating rate is 58%, a 10.12 - percentage - point decrease from last month [4]. - **Demand**: This week, the industrial silicon demand was 84,000 tons, a 2.44% increase. In different sectors, polysilicon inventory is lower than the historical average, organic silicon is in a loss state, and the recycled aluminum operating rate is higher than the historical average [5]. - **Cost**: The production loss of sample oxygen - blown 553 in Xinjiang is 2,874 yuan/ton, and the cost support has increased during the dry season [5]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 546,000 tons, a 1.08% decrease; the sample enterprise inventory is 172,600 tons, a 0.35% increase; the main port inventory is 127,000 tons, unchanged [5]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Supply**: The polysilicon output last week was 26,800 tons, a 0.74% decrease. The predicted November production schedule is 120,100 tons, a 10.37% decrease from last month [7]. - **Demand**: In various downstream sectors, the production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components shows different degrees of decline or change in inventory. For example, the silicon wafer production is in a loss state, and the battery cell inventory has increased significantly [7]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon materials in the industry is 38,920 yuan/ton, with a production profit of 13,380 yuan/ton [7]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory is 267,000 tons, a 3.08% increase, at a historical low [8]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Price - Basis and Delivery Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the basis of the SI main contract, the price difference between East China 421 and 553 silicon, etc., which helps to understand the price relationship between the spot and futures markets and different grades of silicon [14]. - **Inventory**: It presents the historical trends of industrial silicon inventory in different regions and types, including social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and port inventory, which reflects the supply and demand situation in the market [16]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: It shows the historical trends of industrial silicon production, capacity utilization, and operating rate in different regions, which helps to analyze the supply - side situation [18][20]. - **Cost**: It shows the historical trends of electricity prices, silicon stone prices, graphite electrode prices, and some reducing agent prices in the main production areas, which affects the production cost of industrial silicon [23]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: It provides the weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables of industrial silicon and polysilicon, including production, import, export, consumption, and balance, which helps to understand the overall supply - demand situation in the market [30][33][57]. - **Downstream Industries**: It analyzes the price, production, inventory, and supply - demand balance of various downstream industries of industrial silicon, including organic silicon, aluminum alloy, and polysilicon, which reflects the impact of downstream demand on the industrial silicon market [36][44][54]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - **Industrial Silicon**: The SI main contract's 01 contract was in a downward trend this week. Based on the price and volume data and moving average analysis, it is expected to have a bullish sideways adjustment next week [76][77]. - **Polysilicon**: The PS main contract's 01 contract was in an upward trend this week. Based on the price and volume data and moving average analysis, it is expected to have a bullish sideways adjustment next week [78][79].

说明： 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 11 月 17 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA20 一线压力 | 现实格局弱稳，钢价低位震荡 | 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 周末钢材现货价格持稳运行，成交表现一般，而螺纹钢供需格局变化不大，螺纹产量持续下 降，但库存水平偏高，且持续性存疑，供应端利好效应不强。与此同时，螺纹需求持续走弱，高频 指标延续下行，继续位于近年来同期低位，且下游行业未见好转，后续需求降迎来季节性走弱。目 ...

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-11-17 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2601 | 偏弱 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏弱供需主导，甲醇震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：近期美国国会参议院已就结束联邦政府"停摆"达成一致，市场乐观情绪有所回暖，提振 投资者风险偏好。当前国内甲醇开工率 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PVC market has both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages. Negative factors are the overall rebound in supply pressure, high and slowly consumed inventory, and weak domestic and external demand [11]. - The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and domestic demand recovery is sluggish [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Positive factors: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages [11]. - Negative factors: Overall supply pressure rebound, high and slowly consumed inventory, and weak domestic and external demand [11]. - Main logic: Strong overall supply pressure and poor domestic demand recovery [12]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Supply - In October 2025, PVC production was 2.12812 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.79%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 80.75%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points. Calcium carbide method enterprises produced 345,350 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.89%, and ethylene method enterprises produced 146,770 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63%. Supply pressure increased this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, with a slight increase in scheduled production [7]. 3.2.2 Demand - The overall downstream开工率 was 49.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.93 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream profile开工率 was 37.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.21 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe开工率 was 39.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.6 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream film开工率 was 71.79%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin开工率 was 78.06%, a month - on - month increase of 0.37 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are advantageous. Current demand may remain sluggish [7]. 3.2.3 Cost - The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 769.4 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 0.80%, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 465.05 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 14.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2,176.35 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average, and scheduled production may be under pressure [7]. 3.2.4 Basis - On November 13, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,580 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 6 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. It is neutral [8]. 3.2.5 Inventory - Factory inventory was 334,596 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99%. Calcium carbide method factory inventory was 250,396 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.78%. Ethylene method factory inventory was 84,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.63%. Social inventory was 545,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.20%. The in - stock days of production enterprises were 5.5 days, a month - on - month decrease of 2.65%. It is neutral [8]. 3.2.6 Market Chart - MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below MA20. It is bearish [8]. 3.2.7 Main Position - The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing. It is bearish [8]. 3.2.8 Expectation - The cost of the calcium carbide method is weakening, the cost of the ethylene method is strengthening, and the overall cost is weakening. Supply pressure increased this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, with an increase in scheduled production. The overall inventory is at a neutral level. Current demand may remain sluggish. Continuously monitor macro - policies and export dynamics. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4,562 - 4,610 [8]. 3.3 PVC Market Overview - The report provides yesterday's PVC market overview, including various indicators such as prices, spreads, production, and inventory, with specific numerical values and changes [15]. 3.4 PVC Futures Market - It includes the basis trend, price and trading volume trends, and spread analysis of the main contract of PVC futures, with corresponding data and charts [17][20][23]. 3.5 PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium Carbide Method**: It analyzes the prices, costs, profits, and production of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda, as well as the production and inventory of PVC [26][29][31][34]. - **Demand**: It analyzes downstream demand indicators such as trader sales volume, pre - sales volume, production and sales rate, apparent consumption, and downstream开工率, as well as related indicators in the real estate and infrastructure fields [44][48][52]. - **Inventory**: It shows the inventory situation of PVC, including exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory inventory, and social inventory [55]. - **Ethylene Method**: It analyzes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and price differences [57]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the monthly supply - demand trends of PVC, including import, production, factory inventory, social inventory, demand, and export [60].