北京时间十九日凌晨，美联储宣布维持联邦基金利率目标区间在百分之四点二五到四点五不变，这是该行自去年十二月以来连续第四次暂停加息。尽管市场 对此次决议早有预期，但最新发布的利率预测"点阵图"却透露出政策制定者之间日益加深的分歧，为下半年货币政策走向增添变数。 美联储在政策声明中指出，尽管净出口波动对经济数据造成干扰，但近期指标显示美国经济活动仍在稳健扩张，美国失业率维持在低位，通胀水平则"仍然 略高"。值得注意的是，声明删除了此前关于"失业和通胀上升风险增加"的表述，转而强调经济前景的"不确定性有所减弱但仍处于较高水平"。这一微妙调 整反映出美联储对经济形势的评估趋于谨慎，但并未完全排除风险。 最新《经济预测摘要》(SEP)显示，美联储官员集体下调了今明两年经济增长预期，同时上调了美国通胀和失业率预测。具体来看，二零二五年美国GDP增 速预期中值从三月的百分之一点七下调至一点四，而同期核心PCE通胀预期则从百分之二点八上调至三点一。这种"增长放缓+通胀升温"的组合，使得美联 储在制定货币政策时面临更大的两难抉择。 点阵图显示，十九位政策制定者对今年年底利率预期的中位数仍维持在降息五十个基点（即两次二十五个基点的 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve maintained its policy interest rate, but revised down its economic growth forecast for the year while raising inflation expectations [1][2] - The latest dot plot indicates a potential for two rate cuts this year, although there is an increase in the number of members predicting no cuts [1][2] - The Fed's updated economic projections show a GDP growth rate of 1.4% for this year and an unemployment rate of 4.5% for 2025 and 2026 [1][2] Group 2 - Morgan Asset Management noted that the Fed's decision to keep rates unchanged aligns with market expectations, reflecting a shift in language regarding economic uncertainty [2] - The Fed's economic outlook suggests that tariff-related policies may lead to rising inflation and economic downturn [2] - Investors are advised to build resilient portfolios in response to the current uncertain environment, focusing on diversification and balanced investment strategies [3]

专题：美联储连续第四次维持基准利率不变 仍预计今年将再降息两次 摩根资产管理美联储6月会议快评 美国5月整体及核心CPI环比均出现下行，供应管理会制造业PMI连续3个月低于荣枯线50，失业率则连 续3个月维持在4.2%，但6月13日以伊冲突升高中东地缘政治风险，国际油价急速上行，为美联储6月会 议增添不确定性。美东时间6月18日，美联储6月会议维持政策利率不变，但最新公布的经济前瞻指引显 示美联储委员下调年内经济增长，上调年内通胀；最新的利率点阵图则显示年内或仍有降息二次可能； 美联储主席鲍威尔会后发言整体仍然偏鹰，但市场表现相对平静，万得数据显示，昨夜标普500指数几 乎平盘作收，纳斯达克指数大跌3.56%，美元指数上涨0.1%，美国10年期国债收益率较前个交易日下行 1个基点至4.38%。 | 预测中位数 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 长期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | GDP | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.8% | | | (1.7%) | (1.8%) | (1.8%) | (1.8%) | | 失业率 | 4.5% | 4 ...

欧佩克月报：维持2025年欧元区经济增长预期为1%；维持2025年欧元区经济增长预期为1%；维持2025 年美国经济增长预期1.7%不变；维持2026年美国经济增长预期为2.1%。 ...

法国央行：将2025年的经济增长预期从三月份的0.7%下调至0.6%。 ...

法国央行将2025年的增长预期从3月的0.7%下调至0.6%。 ...

特朗普（资料图） 据红星新闻报道，近日，美国政府一边施压贸易伙伴，要求其提交贸易谈判的最佳方案，一边继续挥舞关税大棒，将钢铝产品关税翻倍。与此同时，经合组 织年内第二次下调美国今年经济增长预期，并指出美国相关政策剧烈变化导致包括美国在内多个经济体增长预期下调。经合组织首席经济学家佩雷拉表示， 美国关税政策给全球贸易带来不确定性，严重冲击世界经济。佩雷拉说，当前全球经济贸易政策面临前所未有的重大不确定性，这对各项经济指标产生深远 影响。 特朗普（资料图） 根据路透社曝光的信函草案，特朗普政府要求各谈判国在4日0时提交各国最优核心提案。要求降低对美国工业品、农产品的关税壁垒，扩大采购配额；并承 诺数据跨境流动、禁止强制技术转让；取消针对美企的歧视性法规；经济安全合作方面，要在供应链、关键技术领域对美"表忠心"。若未按时提交，美国将 单方面评估并抛出"对等关税"方案——即直接匹配各国对美商品的现行税率，最高可达100%。特朗普为何如此急迫的向各国施压？ 其实主要原因还是有中国，截至目前，中美关税博弈的变数仍然很大。一方面，美国对华关税豁免至8月30日。美国的这一退让被视为是"以退为进"。另一 方面，中国在整场博弈的 ...

Group 1 - The Bank of England is expected to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points in the third and fourth quarters of 2025, bringing the year-end rate down to 3.75%, consistent with the May survey results [1] - The economic growth forecast for the UK in 2025 is projected at 1.0%, with a slight increase to 1.2% in 2026, also in line with the May survey findings [1]

Investment Rating - The report lifts the year-end 2025 S&P 500 target to 6300, indicating a structural bullishness on US large cap stocks with a mid-2026 target of 6500, suggesting high single-digit percentage upside over the next twelve months [1][12]. Core Insights - The report reflects a more constructive fundamental view and an expectation for persistency in the current valuation backdrop, despite high policy volatility [1][5]. - The S&P 500 is expected to hold a forward P/E of 21x, which puts pressure on 2026 EPS growth to meet or exceed consensus estimates [4][12]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing structural shift in earnings contribution from Cyclicals to Growth, which contextualizes historical valuation comparisons [4][5]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The initial view for 2025 anticipated a flattish first half followed by improvement, but tariff risks led to a target downgrade earlier in the year [2][11]. - The S&P 500's base case for year-end 2025 is set at 6300, with an increase in full-year index earnings estimate to $261 from $255, although still below the previous projection of $270 [3][14]. Valuation Analysis - The S&P 500 is trading at the higher end of its historic valuation range, with a forward P/E of 21x expected to persist [4][12]. - The report notes that the tariff impacts have been moderated, leading to a less negative EPS impact on the index [26][31]. Sector Performance - The report highlights that Consumer Discretionary and Energy sectors are expected to face the most negative progression in 2025, while Financials and Information Technology sectors are critical for stability and growth [34][35]. - Health Care is identified as a wildcard sector, with various market concerns influencing its performance [36]. Earnings and Growth Expectations - The report indicates a positive outlook for earnings growth into 2026, supported by improved macroeconomic conditions and a less severe tariff path [28][31]. - Capex spending intentions remain strong despite policy uncertainties, with expectations for continued growth in capital expenditures across sectors [47][51].

欧洲央行行长拉加德：不排除进一步上调经济增长预期的可能性。 ...