黄金方面： 据相关新闻报道，当地时间1月6日，美国总统特朗普宣布，委内瑞拉临时政府将向美国移交3000万至5000万桶石油。该事件发生后，市场解读为局势可能会 出现缓和，在此影响下，金价自4500美元关口出现短线回落。 1月6日，丹麦、法国、德国、意大利、波兰、西班牙和英国发表联合声明，强调格陵兰岛属于其人民，只有丹麦和格陵兰岛才能决定自身事务。这是针对卢 比奥计划购买格陵兰岛的反击。 百利好特约智昇研究投资策略师麦东认为，美委之间的局势可能缓和，但格陵兰岛问题重回市场视野，这也反映出委内瑞拉事件的影响正出现连锁反应。受 此影响，金价短期回调，但长期仍维持看涨态势。 技术面分析：昨日收阳线。日线级别显示，金价处于高位震荡整理。1小时级别，价格回测60/120日均线，市场仍是上升趋势。今日下方关注4420美元的支 撑，上方关注4500美元的压力。 原油方面： 周二，原油市场在2026年全球供应充裕的预期与委内瑞拉原油产量不确定性之间权衡考量。目前评估马杜罗被捕事件对原油供需的影响为时尚早，无论委内 瑞拉是否会增产，2026年原油市场供应都将维持充裕。 美国政府对委内瑞拉采取军事行动，特朗普正推动美国油气公司重返 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is experiencing internal divisions regarding interest rate policy, with outgoing Governor Milan advocating for a more accommodative stance due to concerns over current interest rates impacting economic growth [1][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - Milan suggests that interest rate cuts may need to exceed 100 basis points this year, significantly higher than the current official forecast [3]. - He believes that core inflation has largely returned to the target range of around 2%, while the U.S. economy remains resilient [3]. - The high interest rate environment is increasing financing costs, which is gradually dampening investment and consumption, indicating a need for policy easing to sustain economic expansion [3]. Group 2: Divergent Views Among Officials - Other officials, such as Kashkari, express a more cautious stance, indicating that the current policy is close to appropriate levels and future adjustments will depend on upcoming data regarding inflation and employment [4]. - Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulsen also suggests that a moderate adjustment later in the year may be more suitable if economic trends align with expectations [4]. - Milan's views appear to reflect personal policy preferences rather than a consensus within the Federal Reserve, as the latest forecasts indicate limited room for rate cuts this year [4]. Group 3: Policy Discussion Focus - The discussion within the Federal Reserve has shifted from "whether to cut rates" to "the pace and magnitude of rate cuts," with balancing inflation and growth remaining a core issue for future policy decisions [5].

Core Viewpoint - The primary factors influencing the gold market are the movements of the US dollar and monetary policy, particularly the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy [1]. Group 1: Dollar Influence - Gold has an inverse relationship with the US dollar; when the dollar strengthens, gold prices typically decline due to increased holding costs [1]. - Conversely, when the dollar weakens, gold prices generally rise as holding costs decrease [2]. - The US Dollar Index (DXY) measures the dollar's value against a basket of major currencies, and its fluctuations directly impact gold prices [3][4]. Group 2: Interest Rate Changes - When the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, the opportunity cost of holding gold increases, leading investors to seek higher-yielding assets, which can cause gold prices to fall [5]. - In contrast, when the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, the attractiveness of gold increases, often resulting in higher prices [6]. Group 3: Quantitative Easing and Monetary Policy Expectations - The implementation of quantitative easing (QE) by the Federal Reserve, which includes actions like printing money and purchasing bonds, increases market liquidity and inflation expectations, typically driving gold prices up [7]. - Market expectations regarding Federal Reserve policies, such as anticipated rate hikes or cuts, can also influence gold prices, with expectations of rate hikes potentially leading to preemptive declines in gold prices [8]. Group 4: Economic Conditions - During periods of strong economic growth, investors may prefer riskier assets like stocks, leading to decreased demand for gold and potential price declines [9]. - Conversely, during economic recessions, investors often turn to gold as a safe-haven asset, which can drive prices higher [10]. Group 5: Inflation and Deflation - Rising inflation tends to increase demand for gold as a store of value, resulting in higher prices [11]. - In deflationary periods, demand for gold may decrease, putting downward pressure on prices [12]. Group 6: Geopolitical Risks and Economic Uncertainty - Geopolitical events such as wars, political instability, and terrorist attacks can elevate demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, often leading to price increases [13][14]. - Economic uncertainties, including financial crises and debt crises, can also boost demand for gold [15]. Group 7: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Factors affecting gold supply include mining output, recycling rates, and central bank selling behaviors [16]. - Demand influences come from investment needs (like gold ETFs, bars, and coins), industrial uses (such as electronics and medical applications), and jewelry demand [16]. - Investor sentiment regarding economic outlooks, including concerns about inflation and recession, can impact gold prices [16]. - Speculative trading in futures markets can lead to short-term volatility in gold prices [16]. - Central bank purchasing or selling of gold reserves can significantly affect market supply and demand [16]. - Technical factors, such as support and resistance levels in gold pricing, can also influence short-term trends [16].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is nearing the point of stopping interest rate cuts, with a focus on balancing concerns between a slowing labor market and persistent inflation [3][8]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari stated that the Fed is close to a "neutral" policy stance and requires more data to determine whether inflation or the labor market is more concerning [3][8]. - The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates unchanged in January is 81.7%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 18.3% [3][8]. - By March, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 43.2%, with a 49.6% chance of maintaining rates, and a 7.2% chance of a 50 basis point cut [3][8]. Group 2: Currency Exchange Rate - As of January 6, the RMB to USD central parity rate is reported at 7.0173, reflecting an increase of 57 points [2][6].

Group 1 - The dollar strengthened on Wednesday after better-than-expected labor market data, but it is still set to record its largest annual decline since 2017 due to a year of rate cuts, fiscal concerns, and uncertainty surrounding trade policies under President Trump [1][4] - The U.S. Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims decreased by 16,000 to 199,000, the lowest in a month, and below economists' expectations of 220,000 [1][4] - The dollar index rose by 0.27% to 98.50, while the euro fell by 0.21% to $1.1721 [1][4] Group 2 - For the year, the dollar has fallen over 9%, while the euro has risen more than 13% [5] - The British pound decreased by 0.45% to $1.3401 on the day, but it has appreciated over 7% against the dollar for the year [6] Group 3 - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve under the Trump administration and aggressive rate cuts have added pressure on the dollar [2][7] - Trump plans to announce the next Federal Reserve chair in January, which could impact monetary policy direction [2][7] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes indicated that the decision to cut rates was made after thorough discussions on current economic risks, with expectations of only one more rate cut next year [3][8] - The market currently anticipates approximately 50 basis points of rate cuts next year, while other European currencies have also seen significant appreciation [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the extreme volatility in silver prices, with significant fluctuations between sharp declines and rapid recoveries, influenced by technical factors and market conditions [2][5]. - Silver prices rebounded to over $74 per ounce after a previous drop of 9%, while gold also showed slight recovery after its largest decline in two months [2][5]. - Analysts attribute the recent sell-off to profit-taking and increased margin requirements, indicating that the fundamental conditions supporting the price increase, such as a weaker dollar and geopolitical uncertainties, remain intact [5][6]. Group 2 - Despite recent pullbacks, both gold and silver are expected to record their strongest annual performance since 1979, driven by strong central bank purchases and continuous inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) [6]. - The silver market is experiencing a real physical shortage, with supply constraints and increased inventory concentration significantly influencing pricing, indicating a shift in how the silver market is priced and traded [6]. - The U.S. stock market showed volatility with major indices experiencing declines, while investors are focusing on the upcoming release of the Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes for insights on future interest rate paths [7][8].

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The asphalt spot market faces prominent supply pressure, with increased refinery production schedules. Both refinery and social inventories are in an accumulation state. Demand remains sluggish due to the off - season. Some southern refineries have lowered prices to boost sales, while prices in Shandong are relatively stable due to low inventory levels. Meanwhile, the main futures contract has slightly risen, with both long and short positions leaving the market. The net - short position pattern remains unchanged, and the intraday fluctuation range has narrowed, maintaining a narrow - range oscillation. Overall, the current supply - demand contradiction in the asphalt market has not been improved, and the weakening of crude oil has reduced cost support. In the short term, the upward space of the futures is limited by the fundamentals, and the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Asphalt Market Data - **Spot Market**: In the East China region, the current price is 3000, the previous price was 3000 with a 0% increase; in the Northeast, the current price is 3410, the previous price was 3440 with a - 30 decrease; in the North China, the current price is 3010, the previous price was 3010 with a 0% increase; in the South, the current price is 2840, the previous price was 2800 with a 40 increase; in the Northwest, the current price is 3430, the previous price was 3430 with a 0% increase; in Shandong, the current price is 2920, the previous price was 2920 with a 0% increase [1]. - **Futures Market**: For the BU2601 contract, the current price is 2977, the previous price was 2969 with a 0.27% increase; for the BU2602 contract, the current price is 3008, the previous price was 2995 with a 0.43% increase [1]. 3.2 International News and Policy Expectations - **US Policy on Venezuela**: US officials have downplayed the possibility of military action against Venezuela and stated that the White House has ordered the US military to focus on oil blockades for at least the next two months. The US is prioritizing economic pressure through sanctions, believing that existing measures have put heavy pressure on the Maduro government. It has warned that Venezuela will face an economic disaster by the end of January if it does not make significant concessions [1]. - **Russian Public Expectations on the Russia - Ukraine Conflict**: A Russian national poll shows that most people expect the Ukraine conflict to end in 2026. Among 1600 respondents, 70% believe that Russia will be more successful in 2026, and 55% of the optimistic expectations are related to the end of the special military operation. This poll is considered a possible test by the Kremlin of public reaction to a peace agreement [2]. - **Fed Interest Rate Policy Expectations**: According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in January next year is 84.5%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 15.5%. By March, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 51.8%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 42.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is only 6.0%. The market has limited expectations for short - term rate cuts [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the significant fluctuations in precious metals, with silver experiencing a sharp drop after an initial rise, while gold has fallen below the $4500 mark [2] - On December 29, silver saw a decline of nearly 5% after previously rising close to 6%, while gold dropped nearly 1% [2] Group 2 - U.S. President Trump indicated that substantial progress has been made in discussions regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with 95% of key issues covered in talks [3] - Trump mentioned that a potential three-way meeting involving himself, Russian President Putin, and Ukrainian President Zelensky could occur if deemed appropriate [4] - Ukrainian President Zelensky stated that significant achievements have been made in a 20-point peace plan, with about 90% of the content agreed upon, and that security arrangements between the U.S. and Ukraine have been fully agreed [5] - Zelensky emphasized the importance of respecting Ukraine's territorial integrity and the need for a clear legal framework regarding any potential referendums [6] Group 3 - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in January is 81.2%, while the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut is 18.8% [8] Group 4 - The Syrian Central Bank announced the issuance of a new currency, with a conversion rate of 100 old Syrian pounds to 1 new Syrian pound, set to take effect on January 1, 2026 [10]

文/《清华金融评论》 王茅 下一任美联储主席候选人中，前美联储理事凯文·沃什与美国白宫国家经 济委员会主任凯文 · 哈西特竞争激烈，特朗普明确支持大幅降息并干预人 选选择， 202 6 年利率政策或受政治压力与经济数据双重影响。 美联储主席最终人选将于 2026 年 1 月初公布，需通过参议院确认。 特朗普对美联储下任主席的态度与干预 特朗普多次要求将美国联邦基金利率降至 1% 甚至更低，以降低国债融资成本，并称任何不同意我观点的人不会成为美联储主席，他还于 12 月 24 日重 申，下任主席在利率决策前咨询其意见。 现任美联储主席鲍威尔的任期将于 2026 年 5 月 15 日 届满，美联储下一任主席究竟花落谁家，受到市场广泛关注，因为美联储的政策取向，将影响全球 流动性、大宗商品与矿业表现，以及资本市场走势。 美联储主席候选人格局 目前看来，下一任美联储主席很可能在美国白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文 · 哈西特和前美联储理事凯文 · 沃什之间产生。 特朗普近期曾公开表示，沃什为 " 头号候选人 " ， 12 月早些时候相关数据显示，提名概率一度飙升至 47% 。他的政策立场被称为是 " 鹰派改革者 " ，主 ...

12月25日，黄金正迎来自1979年以来表现最好的一年。在纽约交易的黄金期货今年已飙升近71%，有望 创下46年来的最大年度涨幅。上一次黄金表现如此强劲时，吉米·卡特还是美国总统，中东危机正在发 酵，通胀飙升，且美国正处于能源危机之中。 如今，关税正在扭曲国际贸易，俄乌冲突战火肆虐，以色列和伊朗之间爆发了冲突，美国还在委内瑞拉 海岸附近扣押油轮。在不确定时期，投资者纷纷转向黄金等避险资产。 黄金被视为一种具有韧性的投资，投资者预计在危机时刻、通胀飙升或货币贬值时，这种黄色金属能够 保值。 对于一些投资者来说，黄金的软肋在于它不像债券那样支付利息。但当美联储像过去几个月那样降低利 率时，美债收益率往往会下降，从而使黄金更具吸引力。 新浪声明：此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的，并不意味着赞同 其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。 责任编辑：陈平 12月25日，黄金正迎来自1979年以来表现最好的一年。在纽约交易的黄金期货今年已飙升近71%，有望 创下46年来的最大年度涨幅。上一次黄金表现如此强劲时，吉米·卡特还是美国总统，中东危机正在发 ...