Group 1: Overall Market Performance - The commodity market saw an overall increase of 2.29% last week, with significant gains in the energy sector at 4.11% [1] - Agricultural products and black metals rose by 2.10% and 0.91% respectively, while precious metals and non-ferrous metals experienced declines of 1.76% and 0.09% [1] Group 2: Specific Commodity Movements - Crude oil, methanol, and short fibers had the highest closing price increases at 8.82%, 5.86%, and 5.31% respectively [1] - Precious metals like gold, pulp, and silver saw notable declines of 1.99%, 1.50%, and 1.44% respectively [1] Group 3: Market Outlook and Influencing Factors - The evolving situation in the Middle East, particularly the U.S. attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, is expected to influence short-term asset pricing and market direction [1] - There are expectations of Iranian responses that could impact energy prices, with a focus on monitoring implied volatility in energy markets and offshore dollar liquidity [1] Group 4: Precious Metals and Investment Trends - International gold prices are stabilizing at high levels, supported by dovish signals from Federal Reserve officials and rising expectations for interest rate cuts [1] - Geopolitical tensions and ongoing global central bank gold purchases continue to provide support for gold prices, while silver is affected by fluctuations in manufacturing data [1] Group 5: Non-Ferrous Metals and Market Dynamics - The non-ferrous metals sector is experiencing narrow fluctuations, with copper prices stabilizing due to tight overseas inventories and ongoing global investment in new energy [1] - Aluminum prices are supported near the cost line for electrolytic aluminum, with market attention on electricity costs and inventory depletion [1] Group 6: Black Metals and Policy Impacts - Steel futures are rebounding, driven by expectations of "stabilizing growth" policies and production restrictions in Tangshan [1] - Iron ore prices are influenced by seasonal rainfall in Brazil, leading to decreased port inventories and price stabilization alongside steel [1] Group 7: Energy Sector Developments - Crude oil futures have surged significantly due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and unexpected declines in U.S. oil inventories [1] - OPEC+ production cuts are being effectively implemented, with positive expectations for summer oil demand driving prices higher [1] Group 8: Chemical and Agricultural Products - The chemical sector is generally strong, buoyed by rising energy prices, with methanol, PTA, and fuel oil seeing price increases [1] - Agricultural products show a mixed performance, with oilseeds and oils experiencing strength due to domestic production cuts and policy support, while corn faces pressure from import competition [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market may fluctuate weakly in the short - term due to pressure on liquidity and demand [1]. - The evolution of the Israel - Iran situation is crucial, determining the short - term direction and pricing logic of major asset classes. There is uncertainty in the short - term, and the subsequent counter - attack strength of Iran needs to be observed [1]. - Risk appetite is under short - term pressure, but the impact is limited with a stable RMB. The implied volatility of energy and the stability of offshore US dollar liquidity should be continuously tracked [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance Review - The overall commodity market rose 2.29% last week. The energy and chemical sector had a relatively large increase of 4.11%, while the agricultural products and black sectors rose 2.10% and 0.91% respectively. The precious metals and non - ferrous metals sectors fell 1.76% and 0.09% respectively [1][5]. - Among specific varieties, crude oil, methanol, and short - fiber led the gains with increases of 8.82%, 5.86%, and 5.31% respectively. Gold, pulp, and silver were the top decliners with drops of 1.99%, 1.50%, and 1.44% respectively [1][5]. - The funds in the market decreased, mainly affected by the outflow of funds from precious metals [1][5]. 3.2 Market Outlook by Sector Precious Metals - International gold prices consolidated at high levels due to dovish signals from Fed officials, increased market expectations of interest rate cuts this year, a decline in the US dollar index, and continued gold purchases by global central banks. Silver showed a relatively differentiated performance, fluctuating within a range affected by manufacturing data [2]. Non - Ferrous Metals - The non - ferrous metals sector fluctuated narrowly. Copper prices consolidated at high levels, supported by tight overseas inventories and continued global new energy investment, but the upward momentum slowed due to the Fed's interest rate policy and weak high - level consumption. Aluminum prices found support near the electrolytic aluminum cost line, and the market focused on power costs and inventory destocking [2]. Black Metals - Steel futures continued to rebound, driven by increased expectations of "stable growth" policies and the fermentation of Tangshan production restriction news. Iron ore prices stabilized following steel as port inventories decreased due to the Brazilian rainy season. The fifth round of coke price increases was implemented, and coking coal was more willing to follow the price increase, maintaining the resilience of the black metal industry chain, but the recovery of terminal demand still requires policy support [2]. Energy - Crude oil futures rose significantly due to the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the unexpected decline in US crude oil inventories. OPEC+ implemented production cuts well, and the market had positive expectations for the summer oil - using peak season, keeping oil prices strong in the short - term and driving the联动上涨 of fuel oil, asphalt and other varieties [3]. Chemicals - Driven by rising energy prices, the chemical sector generally strengthened. Some varieties such as methanol, PTA, and fuel oil made up for lost ground, and the inventory destocking speed accelerated due to some device overhauls and cost increases. Weak varieties such as PVC and ethylene glycol got short - term support, but the substantial recovery of the downstream has not been clear, and the market is more trading - driven [3]. Agricultural Products - The oil and oilseed sector fluctuated strongly. Although US soybean export data was weak, domestic rapeseed varieties rose supported by domestic production cuts and policy expectations, with rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil leading the gains. Corn prices were under pressure due to import substitution and declining deep - processing profitability. Pig prices fluctuated and corrected due to the off - season consumption and the pressure of slaughter, and industry confidence was still insufficient [3]. 3.3 Commodity - Related Fund Situation - Most gold ETFs had negative weekly returns, with the overall gold ETF having a - 1.86% to - 1.95% decline, and the total scale decreased by 1.06%. The trading volume of gold ETFs decreased significantly [42]. - The energy - chemical futures ETF had a positive weekly return of 5.34%, and its scale increased by 2.07%, but the trading volume decreased by 78.24% [42]. - The soybean meal futures ETF had a weekly return of 0.73%, and its scale increased slightly by 0.17%, with a small decrease in trading volume [42]. - The non - ferrous metal futures ETF had a weekly return of - 0.20%, and its scale increased by 1.19%, with a 23.67% decrease in trading volume [42]. - The silver futures (LOF) had a weekly return of - 0.99%, and its trading volume increased by 64.13% while the scale remained unchanged [42].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's interest - rate policy is the core factor affecting subsequent US Treasury interest payments. Trump is strongly dissatisfied with the Fed's high - interest - rate policy, believing that a rate cut could save the US government up to $1 trillion in fiscal spending. With the resolution of the debt ceiling in the second half of the year, the overall issuance of US Treasuries will increase significantly. High policy rates will lead to a substantial rise in Treasury interest payments and an increase in the US deficit [2]. - Fed Governor Waller's unexpectedly dovish stance indicates that the Fed's high - interest - rate policy based on the US dollar's credit is not sustainable. The Fed is likely to cut policy rates in the second half of the year. Silver prices will perform strongly when the Fed's easing expectations increase, while gold will continue to be weak due to the weakening of geopolitical risk - aversion factors. It is recommended to wait and see for now, waiting for the Fed's inflection point in its stance [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - On June 23, 2025, Shanghai gold futures rose 0.24% to 782.96 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver futures fell 0.02% to 8737.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold rose 0.15% to $3390.80 per ounce, and COMEX silver rose 0.01% to $36.02 per ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.38%, and the US dollar index was 98.88 [2]. 3.2 Gold Data - **COMEX Gold**: The closing price of the active contract was $3384.40 per ounce, down 0.06% from the previous day; trading volume increased by 57.91% to 277,300 lots; open interest rose 0.29% to 417,100 lots; inventory decreased by 0.56% to 1169 tons [6]. - **LBMA Gold**: The closing price was $3368.25 per ounce, down 0.02% [6]. - **SHFE Gold**: The closing price of the active contract was 778.58 yuan/gram, down 0.34%; trading volume decreased by 19.45% to 303,900 lots; open interest fell 0.77% to 420,600 lots; inventory remained unchanged at 18.17 tons; the amount of funds withdrawn was 1.10%, totaling 52.39 billion yuan [6]. - **Au(T + D)**: The closing price was 776.65 yuan/gram, down 0.10%; trading volume decreased by 5.47% to 37.97 tons; open interest fell 1.92% to 212 tons [6]. 3.3 Silver Data - **COMEX Silver**: The closing price of the active contract was $35.95 per ounce, down 2.20%; open interest rose 6.69% to 174,300 lots; inventory decreased by 0.05% to 15,411 tons [6]. - **LBMA Silver**: The closing price was $36.13 per ounce, down 0.50% [6]. - **SHFE Silver**: The closing price of the active contract was 8664 yuan/kilogram, down 1.76%; trading volume decreased by 10.79% to 1.0843 million lots; open interest fell 2.50% to 889,600 lots; inventory decreased by 1.03% to 1230.23 tons; the amount of funds withdrawn was 4.21%, totaling 20.811 billion yuan [6]. - **Ag(T + D)**: The closing price was 8663 yuan/kilogram, down 1.30%; trading volume increased by 35.47% to 745.95 tons; open interest fell 2.82% to 3187.026 tons [6]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Strategy - The Fed is expected to cut policy rates in the second half of the year. Silver prices will perform strongly when the Fed's easing expectations increase, and it is recommended to wait and see for now, with the reference operating range for the Shanghai silver main contract being 8522 - 9075 yuan/kilogram. Gold will continue to be weak due to the weakening of geopolitical risk - aversion factors, and the reference operating range for the Shanghai gold main contract is 767 - 801 yuan/gram [3].

5. 对钻地弹能否彻底摧毁伊朗地下核设施存疑——据AXIOS网站报道，特朗普顾问透露，近日萦绕在 特朗普心头的一个关键问题是：若美国加入以色列战局并投掷巨型钻地弹，能否真正摧毁伊朗戒备最森 严的核设施？周三特朗普对行动成功率的质疑，正是其仍在权衡是否发动打击的原因之一。五角大楼官 员虽表态有信心，但特朗普似乎未全然信服。 6. 恢复办理外国学生签证——当地时间6月18日，美国特朗普政府恢复办理外国学生签证，但要求访问 签证办理者的社交媒体账户。 7. 私下批准对伊朗的攻击计划——据华尔街日报报道，三名知情人士透露，美国总统特朗普在当地时间 周二晚间对高级助手表示，他批准了针对伊朗的攻击计划，但暂未下达最终命令，以确定伊朗方面是否 会放弃其核计划。知情人士称，特朗普希望通过威胁加入以色列对伊朗的袭击，迫使伊朗方面满足他的 要求。 8. 与墨西哥总统通话——当地时间6月18日，墨西哥总统辛鲍姆表示，已与美国总统特朗普进行电话会 谈。据悉，辛鲍姆在会谈中向特朗普提议推动一项"全面协议"，以共同解决安全、移民和贸易问题。辛 鲍姆同时透露，墨西哥经济部长埃布拉德将赴美推动贸易议题磋商，同时与美方聚焦安全及移民问题。 金 ...

当地时间6月18日，美股三大指数涨跌不一，美股大型科技股表现分化。大宗商品方面，国际金价、油 价均有所回调。 | 招标 | 成分 资讯 | | 相关基金 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 特斯拉(TESLA) | 322.050 | 1.80% | 5.700 | | TSLA.O | | | | | 英伟达(NVIDIA) NVDA.O | 145.480 | 0.94% | 1.360 | | 苹果(APPLE) AAPL.O | 196.580 | 0.48% | 0.940 | | 微软(MICROSOFT MSFT.O | 480.240 | 0.46% | 2.200 | | 脸书(META PLATF META.O | 695.770 | -0.21% | -1.460 | | 亚马逊(AMAZON) AMZN.O. | 212.520 | -1.07% | -2.300 | | 谷歌(ALPHABET)· GOOG.O | 173.980 | -1.83% | -3.250 | 热门中概股多数下跌，Wind数据显示，纳斯达克中国金龙指数下跌0.82%。指数成分股中，逸 ...

专题：美联储连续第四次维持基准利率不变 仍预计今年将再降息两次 摩根资产管理美联储6月会议快评 美国5月整体及核心CPI环比均出现下行，供应管理会制造业PMI连续3个月低于荣枯线50，失业率则连 续3个月维持在4.2%，但6月13日以伊冲突升高中东地缘政治风险，国际油价急速上行，为美联储6月会 议增添不确定性。美东时间6月18日，美联储6月会议维持政策利率不变，但最新公布的经济前瞻指引显 示美联储委员下调年内经济增长，上调年内通胀；最新的利率点阵图则显示年内或仍有降息二次可能； 美联储主席鲍威尔会后发言整体仍然偏鹰，但市场表现相对平静，万得数据显示，昨夜标普500指数几 乎平盘作收，纳斯达克指数大跌3.56%，美元指数上涨0.1%，美国10年期国债收益率较前个交易日下行 1个基点至4.38%。 | 预测中位数 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 长期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | GDP | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.8% | | | (1.7%) | (1.8%) | (1.8%) | (1.8%) | | 失业率 | 4.5% | 4 ...

中国基金报记者 泰勒 兄弟姐妹们啊，今夜无眠，大事超多！ 【导读】全球等待美联储最新的利率政策决议，特朗普称伊朗错失达成协议的机会，对打击计划含糊其辞 此外，美联储的利率决议预计将于美东时间下午2点（北京时间19日凌晨2点）公布。市场普遍预期美联储将维持利率不变，但投资者将重 点关注美联储主席鲍威尔会后发布会上的言论。 交易员也在关注政策制定者对于未来利率路径的预测——联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）将公布成员的"点阵图"利率预期。 交易员押注今年将有不到两次降息，且首次降息已完全被市场定价在10月。数据显示，美国初请失业金人数徘徊在八个月高位附近，这一 情况对市场预期影响不大。 Miller Tabak的马特·马利表示："本周的走势像跷跷板一样反复无常。特别是考虑到一切都取决于今天美联储的表态，以及中东局势的进 展。" 市场普遍预计，美联储将在本次会议上连续第四次维持利率不变，并重申在调整借贷成本前，需要更明确了解各项政府政策的影响。尽管 部分官员可能继续预测今年会有两次降息，但也有经济学家认为"点阵图"可能只显示一次。 美股上涨 6月18日晚间，美股三大指数上涨，投资者密切关注中东局势的最新进展，并等待美联 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions significantly impact gold prices, with rate hikes typically leading to lower gold prices due to increased opportunity costs of holding non-yielding gold, while rate cuts tend to support gold prices [2] - The internal dynamics between the "hawkish" and "dovish" factions of the Federal Reserve influence gold market trends, with hawkish signals often resulting in price drops and dovish signals leading to price increases [3] - Geopolitical tensions and unexpected events drive gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, with historical data showing significant price increases during crises [4] Group 2 - New investors should focus on key moments during Federal Reserve decision nights, such as the release of policy statements and the chairman's press conference, as these can indicate future market movements [5] - To navigate the volatility during interest rate meetings, new investors are encouraged to practice with simulated trading accounts to build their skills and understanding of market reactions [6][7] - The company offers a low barrier to entry for new investors, with features like zero-commission trading and minimal transaction sizes, making it easier for beginners to engage in gold trading [8]

6月2日，美国华盛顿特区，杰罗姆·鲍威尔出席美联储成立75周年大会。图片来源：AL DRAGO—BLOOMBERG VIA GETTY IMAGES 随着美联储（Federal Reserve）官员释放出维持利率不变的长期信号，投资者和经济学家本周将密切关 注美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔，希望从他身上找到一些蛛丝马迹，判断可能最终促使央行采取行动的因 素以及行动时机。 美联储连续四次会议维持利率不变，可能再次招致唐纳德·特朗普总统的猛烈抨击。但政策制定者们已 明确表示：在采取行动之前，他们需要白宫解决关税、移民和税收等重大问题。以色列对伊朗核设施的 袭击也给全球经济带来了另一个不确定因素。 与此同时，美国经济总体健康，或许正在缓慢降温，几乎没有人预期近期会有利率变动。根据期货合约 定价，投资者押注美联储最早也要到9月份才会下调借贷成本。 信安资产管理公司（Principal Asset Management）首席全球策略师西玛·沙阿表示："在当前没有降息紧 迫性的情况下，最稳妥的做法就是按兵不动。" 艰难抉择 人们普遍预期，美国总统特朗普的关税政策将推高物价并抑制增长，美联储官员在上次会后声明中指出 了这些风险。 ...

证券研究报告 虽然中东地缘政治冲突推高油价,但联储主要关注国内就业市场和通胀走 势,预计 6 月会议大概率维持利率不变。中东地缘政治冲突一度显著推高 原油价格,近期已有所回落,对美国经济和通胀影响较为有限。5月联储会 议以来,美国就业和通胀数据指示联储大概率维持利率不变。一方面,5月 会议以来,中美关税降级,市场对美国经济衰退的担忧下降,美国就业市场 有序降温:4-5月新增非农人数连续超预期,但3个月移动均值整体下行; 周度首申、续中人数也显示就业市场放缓,但未大规模裁员。另一方面,5 月 CPI、PPI 通胀整体不及预期,关税对通胀的推升暂不明显,但高频数据 显示关税仍在推高商品价格,联储仍可能担忧关税带来通胀压力。 宽观 6 月 FOMC 预览:联储仍有等待的空 | 华泰研究 | | | --- | --- | | 2025年6月17日 中国内地 | 动态点评 | 概览:北京时间6月19日(周四)凌晨美联储将公布6月议息会议决定, 虽然中东地缘政治冲突推高油价,但我们预计目前对联储影响有限,联储主 要关注国内就业市场和通胀的走势:就业市场有序降温、关税对通胀传导暂 不明显,因此预计联储６月会议上将维持利率 ...