智通财经APP获悉，英国央行周三警告称，如果投资者对人工智能的发展前景或美联储的独立性产生悲 观情绪，全球金融市场可能会出现暴跌。英国央行表示，美国股市的估值在某些指标上与互联网泡沫高 峰期的估值水平相近，并指出美国国债容易受到美联储信誉下降的影响。 英国央行金融政策委员会在季度报告中表示："市场出现大幅回调的风险有所增加。"这是该委员会迄今 为止对由人工智能引发的市场暴跌所带来危险发出的最强烈警告，并补充称，此类冲击对英国金融体系 造成的溢出效应"相当严重"。 金融政策委员会由英国央行行长安德鲁·贝利担任主席，其工作重点在于金融稳定风险。贝利上个月向 英国议会表示，他对美联储独立性的受到威胁感到"非常担忧"。 美联储失去独立性将引发全球动荡 英国央行表示："对美联储信誉度的看法若突然发生重大变化，可能会导致美元资产(包括美国主权债务 市场中的资产)价格大幅调整，从而可能引发更高的波动性、风险溢价以及全球范围内的连锁反应。" 基于过去盈利计算得出的股价估值，是自 25 年前互联网泡沫时期以来最为高的水平，不过从投资者对 未来利润的预期来看，这一估值显得没那么高了。 特朗普总统多次敦促美联储大幅降低利率，并试图 ...

Gold futures (GC=F) soared to new all-time highs above $4,000 on Tuesday as investors piled into the precious metal amid a weakening dollar and growing expectations for more Federal Reserve rate cuts. Futures for the yellow metal are up more than 50% year-to-date, marking their highest return in a calendar year since 1979. Meanwhile, a new report from the World Gold Council released Tuesday showed that global gold-backed exchange-traded funds recorded their largest quarterly inflows on record during the ...

Core Insights - Gold futures reached $4,000 per ounce for the first time, driven by investors seeking safe havens amid global volatility [1] - Gold prices have increased over 50% this year, influenced by President Donald Trump's impact on the global trade system and the Federal Reserve's independence [1] - Strong demand from central banks and retail investors has contributed to the rally in gold prices [1]

自从9月18日美联储宣布降息25个基点后，特朗普对鲍威尔的公开指责奇迹般地安静了。 但表面的风平浪静之下，真正的风暴正在转向更直接的通道。 当前美国政府处于"停摆"状态，特朗普政府却借机推进第二轮大规模联邦雇员裁减计划。 这意味着美联储失去了判断经济状况的核心风向标。 这种"数据荒"来得正是时候。 上周发布的ADP就业数据也大幅低于市场预期。 美联储降息通常依赖两大关键数据：就业市场和通胀水平。 分析人士警告，数据荒持续时间越长，经济增长可能越受拖累，美联储面临的降息压力就越大。 通胀方面同样棘手。 美国CPI已从4月低点2.3%攀升至8月的2.9%，核心PCE提升至2.88%，均高于美联储2%的目标。 关税政策推高的进口成本正逐步传导至 消费端，但与此同时，房地产市场低迷又压制了整体通胀表现。 美联储陷入了典型的双向风险困境，通胀上行风险与就业下行风险并存。 特朗普对美联储的改造远不止于外部环境。 他通过人事任命悄然改变了美联储内部的权力平衡。 特朗普没有再施压美联储？ 错！ 10月降息概率已飙升至96.2%，这背后不是美联储的独立决策，而是一系列精妙的"幕后操作"，政府停摆、大规模裁员、关键经济数据"被消 ...

Core Viewpoint - The appointment of Stephen Milan to the Federal Reserve raises concerns about the independence of the central bank, as he advocates for aggressive interest rate cuts aligned with Trump's economic policies [1][3][9]. Group 1: Appointment and Background - Stephen Milan, previously the chairman of Trump's economic advisory council, began his role at the Federal Reserve while still on unpaid leave from the White House, indicating a potential conflict of interest [3][5]. - His confirmation was contentious, passing the Senate by a narrow margin of 48 to 47 votes, highlighting the significant controversy surrounding his appointment [5][9]. Group 2: Economic Policies and Views - Milan is known for his alignment with Trump's economic strategies, including advocating for tariffs and a weaker dollar to boost exports, which he believes necessitates lower interest rates [7][11]. - He publicly challenged Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on the need for more substantial rate cuts, suggesting rates should drop below 3% by year-end [7][11]. Group 3: Implications for Federal Reserve Independence - Milan's dual role poses a threat to the long-standing principle of Federal Reserve independence, as he suggests that the central bank should be more responsive to presidential influence [9][11]. - The potential shift in policy could lead to increased inflation risks, as traditional economic theories warn against aggressive rate cuts in the face of rising tariffs [11][13]. Group 4: Broader Economic Impact - The ongoing debate about the Federal Reserve's independence could have significant repercussions for the U.S. economy, potentially leading to higher long-term interest rates and volatility in financial markets [13][15]. - The situation reflects a broader struggle over economic governance, questioning whether decisions should be made by data-driven professionals or politically motivated leaders [15].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the controversy surrounding Kevin Hassett's defense of the Federal Reserve's independence while simultaneously justifying President Trump's criticisms of it, highlighting the complex stance within the Trump administration regarding the Fed's independence and its implications for future monetary policy direction [1]. Group 1: Criticism of the Federal Reserve - Hassett's first accusation is that the Federal Reserve's inflation predictions in 2021 demonstrate partisan bias, claiming that the Fed allowed inflation to spiral out of control under the Biden administration [2]. - Timiraos points out that during Biden's presidency, five out of six Federal Reserve governors were appointed during Trump's first term, including current Chair Jerome Powell, indicating a lack of partisan bias in the Fed's composition [2]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Adjustments - Timiraos notes that the Federal Reserve began significantly raising interest rates once it recognized that its monetary policy was off track, with Biden-appointed governors filling positions starting in the second quarter of 2022 [3]. - The Fed announced a tapering of bond purchases on November 3, 2021, prior to Biden's reappointment of Powell, suggesting that the decision to tighten policy was not solely dependent on the timing of Powell's nomination [4]. Group 3: Election-Year Rate Cuts - Hassett's third claim is that the Fed unexpectedly cut rates before the last election to aid the Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, a viewpoint that Hassett did not express at the time and later defended as a wise decision based on available data [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the controversy surrounding Kevin Hassett's defense of the Federal Reserve's independence while simultaneously justifying President Trump's criticisms of it, highlighting the complexities within the Trump administration regarding this sensitive topic [1]. Group 1: Criticism of the Federal Reserve - Hassett's first accusation is that the Federal Reserve's inflation predictions in 2021 demonstrate partisan bias, claiming that the Fed allowed inflation to spiral out of control under the Biden administration [2]. - Timiraos points out that during Biden's presidency, five out of six Federal Reserve governors were appointed during Trump's first term, including current Chair Jerome Powell, indicating a lack of partisan bias in the appointments [2]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Adjustments - Timiraos notes that once the Federal Reserve recognized its monetary policy was off track, it began to raise interest rates significantly, with Biden-appointed governors filling positions starting in the second quarter of 2022 [3]. - The first significant rate hike of 75 basis points occurred in June 2022, with subsequent hikes also supported by the newly appointed governors [3]. Group 3: Timing of Policy Tightening - Hassett's second claim is that the Federal Reserve only began tightening monetary policy after Biden nominated Powell for a second term, which was announced on November 22, 2021 [4]. - Timiraos counters that the Fed had already announced a tapering of bond purchases on November 3, 2021, indicating that the decision to tighten was not solely dependent on Biden's nomination [4]. Group 4: Election-Year Rate Cuts - Hassett's third accusation is that the Federal Reserve unexpectedly cut rates before the last election to aid Democratic candidate Kamala Harris [5]. - Timiraos highlights that Hassett did not express this view at the time and had previously defended the rate cut as a wise decision based on available data [5]. Group 5: Historical Perspective on Decisions - Hassett acknowledged in a later interview that while the rate cut might be viewed as a mistake in hindsight, it is essential to consider the context in which policymakers made their decisions [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the controversy surrounding Kevin Hassett's defense of the Federal Reserve's independence while simultaneously supporting President Trump's criticisms of it, highlighting the complexities within the Trump administration regarding this sensitive topic [1]. Group 1: Criticism of the Federal Reserve - Hassett's first accusation is that the Federal Reserve's inflation predictions in 2021 demonstrate partisan bias, claiming that the Fed allowed inflation to spiral out of control under the Biden administration [2]. - Timiraos points out that during Biden's presidency, five out of six Federal Reserve governors were appointed during Trump's first term, including current Chair Jerome Powell, indicating a lack of partisan influence from the Biden administration [2]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Adjustments - Timiraos notes that the Federal Reserve began significantly raising interest rates once it recognized that its monetary policy was off track, with Biden-appointed governors filling positions starting in the second quarter of 2022 [3]. - The first rate hike of 75 basis points occurred in June 2022, with subsequent hikes also supported by the newly appointed governors [3]. Group 3: Timing of Policy Tightening - Hassett's second claim is that the Federal Reserve only began tightening monetary policy after Biden nominated Powell for a second term, which was announced on November 22, 2021 [4]. - Timiraos counters that the Fed had already announced a tapering of bond purchases on November 3, 2021, indicating that the decision to tighten policy was not solely dependent on Biden's nomination [4]. Group 4: Election-Year Rate Cuts - Hassett's third accusation is that the Federal Reserve unexpectedly cut rates before the last election to aid Democratic candidate Kamala Harris [5]. - Timiraos highlights that Hassett did not express this view at the time and had previously defended the rate cut as a wise decision based on available data [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - Stephen Miran, a Federal Reserve governor, indicated that he may adjust his inflation outlook if housing costs unexpectedly rise, acknowledging that his stance differs from mainstream views and is not fixed [1] Group 1: Inflation and Housing Costs - Miran downplayed the risk of tariffs driving inflation, suggesting that stricter immigration policies and average rent trends could suppress housing inflation [1] - He stated that if certain events indicate that the expected channels are ineffective and rent surges significantly, he would need to revise his mild inflation forecast [1] Group 2: Interest Rate Decisions - Miran voted against the recent Federal Reserve decision to lower interest rates by 0.25 percentage points, advocating for a more substantial cut of 0.5 percentage points [1] - He called for a series of aggressive rate cuts to bring the benchmark policy rate to what he considers a neutral level, which neither stimulates nor suppresses economic activity [1] Group 3: Employment Market and Future Predictions - Amid signs of weakness in the job market, policymakers are increasingly acknowledging the need for further rate cuts, although some remain cautious due to ongoing uncertainties surrounding Trump's tariff policies and inflation still exceeding the Fed's 2% target [1] - According to the median forecast from last month's meeting, Federal Reserve officials expect two additional rate cuts of 0.25 percentage points each by the end of 2025 [1] Group 4: Federal Reserve Independence - Miran, who joined the Federal Reserve Board in September, faced scrutiny regarding his previous role in the White House and the potential political influence on Fed decisions [2] - He emphasized that since his confirmation, he has not communicated with Trump and has not been directed to take specific policy actions, asserting his role is to bring fresh, non-mainstream perspectives to the Fed [2] - When asked about broader reforms at the Fed, Miran stated that such matters should ultimately be addressed by Congress rather than himself [2]

自今年1月第二次出任美国总统以来，特朗普一直敦促美联储降息。莉萨·库克2022年获时任总统拜登提名，经国会批准出任 美联储理事，也是美联储首名非洲裔女性理事。 转载请注明央视财经 编辑：王昕宇 （央视财经《天下财经》）美国最高法院10月1日发布一项指令，允许美国联邦储备委员会理事莉萨·库克暂时留任。 根据美国最高法院的指令，这起案件的口头辩论安排在2026年1月进行。这意味着在明年1月法官们就此案听取辩论之前，库 克可继续留任。 8月25日，美国总统特朗普以涉嫌住房抵押贷款欺诈为由解雇库克。库克否认所有指控，并称这是特朗普试图掌控美联储、 打压其独立性的借口。随后库克通过法律途径挑战解雇决定。在地区法院暂停解雇后，美国政府于9月18日请求最高法院允 许特朗普立即解雇库克，如今最高法院的指令暂时维持了库克的留任状态。 ...