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算力三国:英伟达、甲骨文与 OpenAI的万亿棋局
3 6 Ke· 2025-09-23 03:36
当英伟达宣布向 OpenAI 投资 1000 亿美元的消息在硅谷宣布时,整个科技圈都在试图理解这组天文数字背后的逻辑。这笔相当于全球芯片行业全年研发 投入的资金,极有可能将重塑 AI 产业的权力格局,同时也揭开了一场规模达数万亿美元的基础设施军备竞赛的序幕。在这场较量中,英伟达、甲骨文与 OpenAI 形成了既合作又制衡的 "算力三国",而他们的每一步棋都重新定义着人工智能的未来边界,这笔资金的背后到底隐藏着什么样的故事? 更值得关注的是甲骨文在 "星际之门"(Stargate)项目中的角色。这个由特朗普政府背书、计划投资 5000 亿美元的 AI 基建计划,原本被视为美国对抗全 球 AI 竞争的战略布局。尽管项目进展不及预期,从最初承诺的 1000 亿美元立即投资缩水为 2025 年底前仅建成一座数据中心,但甲骨文负责的得克萨斯 州阿比林地区八座数据中心仍在推进,预计 2026 年底全部完工。这些设施将与 OpenAI 的其他基建项目形成协同效应,构成其算力网络的重要节点。 英伟达的闭环帝国:1000 亿美元的 "自我投资" 游戏 "英伟达投资 OpenAI 1000 亿美元,而 OpenAI 又把这笔钱还 ...
英伟达OpenAI千亿交易,其他人还剩啥?
Hu Xiu· 2025-09-23 03:05
Core Insights - NVIDIA and OpenAI have signed a strategic cooperation letter, committing to deploy a minimum of 10GW of NVIDIA AI computing systems over the coming years, involving millions of next-generation GPUs [1][2] - NVIDIA will provide up to $100 billion in funding support to OpenAI, with the investment structured to align with the deployment progress of computing infrastructure [1][2] - This partnership marks a shift for NVIDIA from being a hardware supplier to becoming a co-builder of AI infrastructure, sharing risks and rewards with OpenAI [3] Group 1: Transition of Roles - NVIDIA is transitioning from a leading hardware supplier to an industry partner, directly investing in the core business expansion of OpenAI [3] - The $100 billion funding is not a one-time hardware purchase but will be injected in phases as OpenAI's computing capacity is deployed [3] Group 2: Addressing Computing Demand - OpenAI acknowledges that the biggest bottleneck in AI development is computing power, with a significant increase in demand for computational resources due to the rapid growth of AI services [5] - The collaboration aims to strategically secure vast computing resources to ensure uninterrupted model development and commercialization [5] Group 3: Industry Dynamics and Financial Implications - The 10GW commitment translates to approximately 4 to 5 million top-tier GPUs, comparable to NVIDIA's expected annual shipment volume [6] - Building a 1GW AI data center is estimated to cost around $50 to $60 billion, indicating a substantial financial commitment that will impact cloud service providers like Microsoft, Amazon, and Google [6] - This investment also serves as a financial arrangement that allows OpenAI to purchase NVIDIA chips, stabilizing NVIDIA's revenue expectations for the coming years [6] Group 4: Shift in Competitive Focus - The collaboration signals a shift in the AI race from model advancement to infrastructure provision, emphasizing the importance of stable supply chains for GPUs, power, and networks [7][8] - Companies that control the infrastructure will have a significant advantage in commercializing models and scaling services [8] Group 5: Regulatory Considerations - The concentration of capital and computing power between NVIDIA and OpenAI may attract regulatory scrutiny, particularly concerning antitrust and national security issues [6]
从Transformer到GPT-5,听听OpenAI科学家 Lukasz 的“大模型第一性思考”
AI科技大本营· 2025-09-23 02:11
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the revolutionary impact of the paper "Attention Is All You Need," which introduced the Transformer architecture, fundamentally changing the landscape of artificial intelligence and natural language processing [2][17]. Group 1: The Impact of the Transformer - The paper "Attention Is All You Need" has been cited 197,159 times on Google Scholar, highlighting its significant influence in the AI research community [3][26]. - The authors of the paper, known as the "Transformer Eight," have become prominent figures in the AI industry, with seven of them starting their own companies [4][24]. - The introduction of the Transformer architecture has led to a paradigm shift in AI, moving away from RNNs and enabling better handling of long-distance dependencies in language processing [17][18]. Group 2: Lukasz Kaiser's Journey - Lukasz Kaiser, one of the authors, chose to join OpenAI instead of starting a commercial venture, focusing on the pursuit of AGI [4][25]. - Kaiser has a strong academic background, holding dual master's degrees in computer science and mathematics, and has received prestigious awards for his research [7][8]. - His decision to leave a stable academic position for Google Brain in 2013 was driven by a desire for innovation in deep learning [11][12]. Group 3: The Evolution of AI Models - Kaiser and his team introduced the attention mechanism to address the limitations of RNNs, leading to the development of the Transformer model [15][17]. - The success of the Transformer has spurred a wave of entrepreneurship in the AI field, with many authors of the original paper becoming CEOs and CTOs of successful startups [24][27]. - Kaiser has been involved in the development of cutting-edge models like GPT-4 and GPT-5 at OpenAI, contributing to the forefront of AI research [27]. Group 4: Future Directions in AI - Kaiser predicts that the next phase of AI will focus on teaching models to think more deeply, emphasizing the importance of generating intermediate steps in reasoning [29]. - The upcoming ML Summit 2025 will feature Kaiser discussing the history, present, and future of reasoning models, indicating ongoing advancements in AI technology [28][30].
OpenAI 走向“算力帝国”
3 6 Ke· 2025-09-22 11:10
短短一周,OpenAI拿下三大成果。 9月10日,甲骨文股价单日暴涨36%,创下32年来最大单日涨幅。这正是由OpenAI 和甲骨文签署的一项5年3000 亿美元的"天 价"云服务合同影响而来。 9月11日,微软与OpenAI悄然签署了一份"非约束性谅解备忘录",为后者的公司重组开绿灯,同时重申了二者的云服务"独占"模 式的结束。 两件事的背后,实则是同一场算力博弈的不同侧面——没有和微软之间松绑云服务独占,就无从谈起和甲骨文之间的合作。没 有一番拉扯后让微软放行"重组",OpenAI就无法获得未来融资的自由度,也就无法解决"3000亿美元从哪里来"的问题。 而在另一个角落,OpenAI的自研芯片时间线也终于确认。《金融时报》、路透社等多家媒体报道,OpenAI与博通合作的自研芯 片将于明年投产,届时将供内部使用。 在前ChatGPT时代,OpenAI的崛起少不了两大支援力量。 一个是英伟达,在将近10年前,黄仁勋亲自将一台超算送到OpenAI总部,成为一段佳话。ChatGPT背后模型的训练,离不开英 伟达芯片的支持。 另一个是微软,其是OpenAI商业转型中引入的最大"金主",在早期就已经投资上百亿美元。没 ...
CICAS组委会联合知乎开启第三届全国人工智能应用场景创新挑战赛AGI 专项赛
Yang Guang Wang· 2025-09-22 10:15
知乎COO张荣乐表示:"知乎与CICAS组委会此次联合发起的,不仅仅是一场比赛。我们更希望借助双方的平台与专业力量,连接起科技从业者、高校 师生和广大科技爱好者,促进人工智能领域的创新链、人才链和产业链深度融合,为实体经济的数字化和智能化发展,搭一座桥、尽一份力。" 赛事报名时间为2025年9月10日24:00至10月31日24:00,符合条件的个人开发者、高校或企业团队可登录CICAS官网或通用人工智能专项赛报名网站了解 赛事详情。 (注:此文属于央广网登载的商业信息,文章内容不代表本网观点,仅供参考。) CICAS大赛是由中国人工智能学会主办的全国性人工智能行业应用赛事,今年共计将举办13场专项赛,其中通用人工智能(AGI)专项赛旨在以场景创 新为牵引,充分发挥"以赛助研、以赛促评、以赛带教、以赛定标、以赛引才、以赛育产、以赛办展"创新驱动作用,推动通用人工智能与未来产业、实体经 济高质量发展。会上,中国人工智能学会副秘书长、CICAS组委会执行秘书长余有成与知乎COO张荣乐共同参与了专项赛启动仪式。 本届专项赛采用"开放场景"竞赛模式,面向全国各地公开征集不少于120个通用人工智能场景的应用创新项目参赛 ...
重磅!陈天桥创立的AI公司MiroMind打造出全球顶尖预测型大模型,性能领先行业基准
Tai Mei Ti A P P· 2025-09-21 15:47
Core Insights - MiroMind, developed by entrepreneur Chen Tianqiao, has become a leading predictive large model, winning the FutureX benchmark for two consecutive weeks [2][8] - The model utilizes a memory-driven mechanism designed specifically for prediction and decision-making, distinguishing it from traditional generative models [2][8] - MiroMind's success in predicting complex outcomes, such as ATP tennis rankings, demonstrates its advanced capabilities in handling intricate data and variables [8][13] Company Overview - MiroMind is a project initiated by Chen Tianqiao and Tsinghua University associate professor Dai Jifeng, aiming to create a general artificial intelligence (AGI) company [8][10] - The company has launched the MiroMind Open Deep Research (Miro ODR) project, which is fully open-source and aims to foster collaboration within the AI research community [10][12] - MiroMind's framework, MiroFlow, achieved a GAIA validation score of 82.4, surpassing many existing AI models [11][12] Industry Context - FutureX, the benchmark where MiroMind excels, is a collaborative initiative involving ByteDance and several prestigious universities, focusing on real-time predictions in AI [5][8] - The ability to predict future events is considered a key measure of intelligence, aligning with the industry's goal of developing AGI [5][8] - Chen Tianqiao emphasizes the need for patient capital in the tech innovation sector, advocating for long-term investment strategies rather than short-term gains [14][15]
华为的具身智能之路:底色、方法论、竞争策略与边界
机器人大讲堂· 2025-09-20 09:44
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of embodied intelligence as a key link between AI capabilities and real-world value, as outlined in Huawei's "Intelligent World 2035" report, which envisions a future where over 90% of Chinese households will have smart robots within the next decade [1][19]. Group 1: Strategic Foundation of Embodied Intelligence - Huawei defines embodied intelligence as a physical AI carrier that integrates various technologies, including visual, tactile, language, and action models (VTLA), perception interaction, computing storage, communication networks, and energy technologies [3][6]. - Embodied intelligence serves as a crucial bridge connecting virtual cognition and physical action, essential for the development of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) [4][3]. Group 2: Methodology for Implementation - Huawei's approach to embodied intelligence involves a layered technical architecture and domain-specific evolution, focusing on foundational technology, scenario validation, and ecosystem collaboration [7][10]. - The foundational technology architecture consists of six core modules, including perception, decision-making, action, and support, with specific breakthrough directions and metrics for each module [8]. Group 3: Competitive Strategy - Huawei aims to avoid a technology parameter race in the global competition for embodied intelligence, instead focusing on ecosystem collaboration, data differentiation, and end-cloud integration to build unique competitive advantages [11][13]. - The company recognizes the need for vertical data platforms tailored to industry-specific needs, enhancing the precision of embodied intelligence in vertical fields [13]. Group 4: Boundaries and Limitations - Huawei acknowledges the technical and commercial limitations in the development of embodied intelligence, particularly in fine manipulation and tactile perception, which remain significant challenges [14][16]. - Ethical and safety risks associated with physical interactions between embodied intelligence and humans are highlighted, necessitating the establishment of unified interaction standards and responsibility frameworks [16][14]. Group 5: Long-term Vision - Huawei's strategy for embodied intelligence reflects a long-term commitment to integrating technology into daily life, emphasizing the balance between technological breakthroughs and ecological maturity [19]. - The company envisions a future where embodied intelligence serves humanity, enhancing quality of life and operational efficiency across various sectors [19].
华为发布《智能世界2035》报告:展望十大技术趋势将如何塑造我们的未来
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-18 12:00
Core Insights - Huawei released two reports, "Intelligent World 2035" and "Global Digital Intelligence Index 2025," outlining the technological evolution path for the next decade [3] - The reports predict a 100,000-fold increase in global computing power by 2035, transforming computing from a specialized tool to a universal social infrastructure [3][25] - The vision emphasizes a human-centered intelligent world, reshaping production methods, lifestyles, and the progress of civilization [3] Group 1: Ten Key Technological Trends - Trend 1: General Artificial Intelligence (AGI) will transition from laboratory to industrial application, with AI expected to handle complex decision-making tasks by 2035 [5][6] - Trend 2: A disruptive change in computing architecture will occur, with a projected 100,000-fold increase in total computing power [7][8] - Trend 3: A fundamental shift in data storage paradigms will take place, with AI storage capacity demand expected to grow 500 times by 2035 [9][10] - Trend 4: The scale of communication networks will increase dramatically, expanding from 9 billion people to 900 billion intelligent entities [11][12] - Trend 5: Energy systems will achieve intelligent management, with renewable energy generation surpassing 50% [13][14] - Trend 6: Interaction methods will evolve to multi-modal experiences, enhancing immersive engagement [15][16] - Trend 7: Health management will shift from treatment to prevention, with chronic disease prevention rates projected to exceed 80% [17][18] - Trend 8: Home robots will become standard, with over 90% of households expected to own smart robots [19][20] - Trend 9: Autonomous driving will redefine travel experiences, with L4+ level autonomous driving becoming widespread [21][22] - Trend 10: Software development will enter a human-machine collaboration era, significantly improving development efficiency [23] Group 2: Computing Revolution - By 2035, total computing power is expected to increase by 100,000 times, necessitating breakthroughs in multiple technology layers [25] - Innovations in computing architecture, such as integrated storage and optical computing, will overcome traditional limitations [25][26] - New computing paradigms, including neuromorphic and quantum computing, will provide superior solutions for specific scenarios [27][28] Group 3: Storage Upgrade - Data will become the "new fuel" driving AI development, with AI storage capacity demand projected to grow 500 times by 2035 [29] - Storage architecture will shift from "data storage" to "data service," enabling intelligent storage systems to understand data content [29] - Data management will transition from manual to intelligent management based on metadata [30] Group 4: Energy Transition - Energy will become a core element limiting AI's rapid development, with renewable energy generation expected to exceed 50% by 2035 [32] - AI will act as the "smart brain" of energy systems, optimizing energy distribution and usage [32] - Infrastructure will evolve towards distributed energy systems, enabling flexible scheduling and sharing of energy resources [32] Group 5: Health Transformation - AI will drive a paradigm shift in healthcare from "passive treatment" to "active prevention," with chronic disease prevention rates projected to exceed 80% [33] - Health prediction models based on multi-modal data will provide personalized prevention recommendations [33] - AI-assisted diagnostics will enhance healthcare efficiency and resource allocation [33] Group 6: Home Life and Enterprise Transformation - The penetration rate of smart home robots is expected to exceed 90%, transforming household tasks and experiences [36] - AI-driven autonomous decision-making will reshape production paradigms, with AI application rates reaching 85% by 2035, potentially increasing labor productivity by 60% [36] - Supply chain management will become more intelligent, with real-time demand forecasting and automated production adjustments [36] Group 7: Challenges and Considerations - The report highlights several core challenges in technological development, including the need for breakthroughs in physical world interaction and energy constraints [38] - Data security and privacy protection will face new challenges, necessitating a balance between data utilization and protection [38] - Ethical considerations in technology will require the establishment of new norms and standards for human-machine collaboration [38] Group 8: Insights and Outlook - The report envisions a future of human-machine collaboration and intelligent inclusivity, where technology evolves from a tool to a decision-making partner [39] - The transformation will require a reevaluation of the relationship between humans and technology, focusing on innovation and top-level design [39] - The competition in the future will extend beyond technology to include vision and hypothesis, with forward-thinking entities likely to lead in the intelligent civilization era [39]
AI 浪潮下的产业变革与投资机遇解析——对话国投瑞银基金经理马柯
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-18 06:41
Core Insights - The article emphasizes that artificial intelligence (AI) is a driving force behind global industrial transformation, comparable to the internet boom from 1995 to 2000 [1] - It discusses the investment opportunities and risks associated with the AI industry, highlighting the current phase of development and future potential [1] AI Development Stages - AI's path to artificial general intelligence (AGI) is divided into five stages, with the industry currently transitioning from the "reasoner stage" to the "agent stage" [3][4] - The first stage involves chatbots like GPT-3.5, which have limited productivity enhancement [3] - The second stage, where the industry currently resides, shows improved reasoning capabilities and reduced costs [4] - Future stages include the "innovator stage" and the "intelligent organization stage," which are feasible due to ongoing improvements in model capabilities [4] North American AI Industry Progress - Key advancements in North American AI companies include periodic model iterations every two years, leading to reduced training and inference costs [5] - Competitive dynamics among firms drive rapid advancements in model capabilities [5] - By 2025, a consensus on the commercial value of generative AI is expected, indicating a healthy profit cycle for AI applications [5] China's AI Development - China is narrowing the gap with international leaders through "system-level innovation and hardware-software collaboration" [6] - In computing power, China is leveraging cluster technology and software capabilities to compensate for hardware shortcomings [6] - The open-source domain in model development benefits from vast data resources and a strong talent pool [7] - Rapid penetration of AI applications is evident as domestic tech giants increase their investments [8] Capital Market Reflections - The AI industry's transformation is reflected in the capital market, with the A-share electronic sector's market value surpassing the banking sector for the first time [9] - By August 2025, the electronic sector's market value is projected to reach 11.54 trillion yuan, indicating a shift towards technology innovation [9] - Numerous AI-related companies have emerged with market values exceeding 100 billion yuan, showcasing the high growth potential of the AI sector [9] Market Characteristics and Investment Opportunities - The current AI industry is likened to the early mobile internet era, with similarities in macroeconomic conditions, liquidity, technological trends, and policy directions [10][11] - Initial market characteristics include a divided funding structure, reasonable valuations, and a lack of excessive market enthusiasm [11] - The "AI+" trend is expected to drive efficiency improvements, business model innovations, and reshape competitive landscapes across industries [12] Investment Strategy - Investment opportunities in the AI industry are identified along the "computing power - energy chain - application" dimensions [13] - Focus areas include overseas and domestic computing power sectors, energy supply for AI infrastructure, and applications in existing and new scenarios [13][14] - The strategy emphasizes prioritizing cost-effectiveness and identifying undervalued assets with strong growth potential [14] Economic Outlook and Asset Allocation - Optimism regarding the macroeconomic environment is based on diminishing negative impacts from the real estate sector and supportive government policies [15] - The attractiveness of equity assets is highlighted due to low yields in fixed income and real estate markets, alongside reasonable valuations in the AI sector [16] - The ongoing shift towards emerging industries is expected to enhance the profitability of listed companies, making equity investments more appealing [16] Future Configuration Strategy - The investment strategy will continue to focus on the "AI+" theme, emphasizing core segments of the AI industry and exploring integration opportunities with traditional sectors [17][18] - Long-term trends indicate that AI will significantly transform industries, with substantial growth potential and reasonable valuations in the current market [18]
智能世界2035
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-17 19:02
Core Insights - The report "Intelligent World 2035" by Huawei outlines a vision for a smart world by 2035, focusing on technological leaps, all-scenario applications, and sustainable development [1] - It identifies ten core trends in technology, including the evolution of AI from execution tools to decision-making partners, the transformation of software development through human-machine collaboration, and the anticipated 100,000-fold increase in computing power demand by 2035 [1][7][30] Technological Trends - The report highlights the need for AI to transition into the physical world, emphasizing the importance of experience, concepts, and actions in forming a world model [1][28] - AI agents are expected to evolve into cognitive entities capable of planning and collaborating, marking a shift from mere information processing to active decision-making [18][29] - A significant breakthrough in computing architecture is anticipated, moving beyond the von Neumann model, which will enable new paradigms in computing [1][30] Application Scenarios - In healthcare, the focus will shift from treatment to comprehensive health management, with AI expected to prevent over 80% of chronic diseases [1][31] - Education will leverage intelligent companions and twin teachers to provide personalized learning experiences at scale [1][7] - The logistics sector will see AI optimizing transportation, warehousing, and quality control, enhancing operational efficiency [1][19] Sustainable Development - The report emphasizes the ethical use of AI, advocating for the establishment of safety and ethical frameworks to ensure equitable access to technology and to bridge the digital divide [1][10][31] - Renewable energy sources are projected to surpass fossil fuels by 2035, with AI playing a crucial role in managing energy networks through token management [1][30][31] Industry Implications - The integration of AI into various sectors, such as finance, manufacturing, and urban management, is expected to drive paradigm shifts, enhancing productivity and reducing operational costs [1][19][31] - The anticipated rise of intelligent agents will lead to the creation of a new ecosystem where AI collaborates with human expertise to tackle complex industry challenges [19][20] Future Outlook - The report envisions a future where intelligent systems are deeply integrated into daily life, transforming homes, workplaces, and cities into interconnected, responsive environments [1][23][31] - It calls for a collaborative effort across industries and nations to develop reliable AI systems that prioritize human welfare and environmental sustainability [1][10][24]