Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core View The report indicates that recent overseas trading focuses on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and independence issues. The falling US dollar index supports the non - ferrous metals market. Fundamentally, domestic copper inventories are still low, and copper supply is expected to be tight. Both refined copper and scrap copper rod production are expected to decrease. Demand is about to enter the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October". Therefore, copper prices are expected to be mainly in a volatile and upward trend, and attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate cut situation [1]. Summary by Directory Strategy Analysis - The US JOLTS job openings data is weak, strengthening market expectations of an interest - rate cut, but the Fed's independence is questioned, leading to high market uncertainty and a rebound in the US dollar index [1]. - In July, China's imports of copper ore concentrates were about 2.56 million tons, a significant increase month - on - month, and port inventories of concentrates also rebounded from the bottom. After the smelter processing fees showed an upward inflection point, they continued to decline in the recent two periods. The sulfuric acid price has reached a high level, and its contribution to smelter profits will decline. Five smelters plan to conduct maintenance in September, involving a crude smelting capacity of 1 million tons, and domestic electrolytic copper production in September is expected to decline month - on - month [1]. - After the copper tariff takes effect, imported copper will flow back to the domestic market. With the expected decline in domestic production in the second half of the year, imported copper will squeeze the domestic market and affect pricing [1]. - As of July 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3745 million tons. Although it is currently in the off - season, the increasing investment in domestic power grid facilities drives copper demand. However, due to the US tariff and trade policies in the first half of the year, there was a rush to export household appliances, which over - drew the export demand in the second half of the year. The domestic subsidy policy of "trading in the old for the new" also advanced domestic demand [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Shanghai copper opened low, rose during the day, and then declined, with the closing price at 79,770 yuan/ton [4]. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was 150 yuan/ton, and in South China was 40 yuan/ton. On September 1, 2025, the LME official price was $9,952/ton, and the spot premium was - $79/ton [4]. Supply Side - As of August 29, the spot crude smelting fee (TC) was - $41.25/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.12 cents/pound [7]. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 19,800 tons, an increase of 358 tons from the previous period. As of September 1, Shanghai Free Trade Zone copper inventory was 82,900 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 158,400 tons, a decrease of 200 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 284,400 short tons, an increase of 3,325 short tons from the previous period [11].

Group 1 - The total amount of gold futures in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 43,254 kilograms, with an increase of 3,003 kilograms compared to the previous day [1][2] - The main gold futures contract opened at 817.50 yuan per gram, reaching a high of 823.24 yuan and a low of 807.18 yuan, currently trading at 812.98 yuan, reflecting a 0.32% increase [1] - The trading volume for the day is 302,967 contracts, with open interest at 136,664 contracts, showing a decrease of 5,666 contracts in daily open interest [1] Group 2 - U.S. President Trump is actively seeking to strengthen control over the Federal Reserve, aiming to place it under stricter management from the White House [2] - A crucial Senate hearing is scheduled to assess the qualifications of Stephen Moore, Trump's nominee for the Federal Reserve Board, amidst ongoing pressure on the Fed's independence [2] - Trump's actions have sparked significant debate in both the market and political circles, becoming a focal point of discussion [2]

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's dovish speech at the Jackson Hole conference has significantly increased expectations for interest rate cuts, with U.S. stock indices breaking previous highs from February and setting new historical records [1][3] - Powell indicated that the U.S. job market faces downside risks, which may necessitate a policy adjustment, and announced a new policy framework adopting a "flexible average inflation targeting" approach [3] - Market expectations for a rate cut in September rose from 75.5% to 91.1%, with a 48.9% probability of a 25 basis point cut and a 46.8% chance of a total 50 basis point cut by December [3] Group 2 - President Trump attempted to remove Powell in July and has publicly pressured the Fed to lower rates, contrasting with the Fed's decision to maintain rates steady since January [4] - Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook has raised concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, leading to increased volatility in the markets and a rise in 30-year Treasury yields [4] - Analysts suggest that while the increased rate cut expectations are positive for U.S. stocks, political interference and slowing economic data may limit the upside potential for the market [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold is gaining prominence as a safe haven asset amid concerns over the dollar's credibility and rising inflation, with gold prices surpassing $3,500 per ounce, marking a historic high and outperforming stocks and bonds this year [2] - Central banks are driving record demand for gold, reflecting a shift in market sentiment regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve [2][3] - The current gold price, adjusted for inflation, is nearing its highest level since the 1980s, coinciding with political pressures on the Federal Reserve to maintain low interest rates [3] Group 2 - Historical parallels are drawn to the 1970s when political pressure led to a significant depreciation of the dollar and a 300% increase in gold prices, suggesting a potential repeat of this scenario if the Federal Reserve lowers rates amid rising prices [3] - Major financial institutions like UBS, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs are optimistic about gold's future, with forecasts suggesting prices could reach $4,000 per ounce by 2026 [3] - Current ETF holdings in gold are still below the peaks seen in 2020 and 2022, indicating that there is still room for growth in gold investments [3]

高盛最新警告称，如果美联储公信力受损，投资者仅需将极小部分美债持仓转向黄金，金价就可能飙升至每盎司 近5000美元的惊人水平。 高盛在报告中提出三种金价情景：基线预测为2026年中升至4000美元，尾部风险情境下达到4500美元，而极端情 况下若仅1%私人持有美债资金流入黄金市场，金价将逼近5000美元关口。 近期特朗普试图加强对美联储的控制，包括推动罢免理事Lisa Cook，这一举动引发市场对央行独立性的担忧。欧 洲央行行长拉加德警告称，美联储失去独立性将对全球构成"严重危险"。 美联储独立性风险引发市场担忧 高盛在题为"分散投资大宗商品，尤其是黄金"的报告中详细分析了推动金价达到5000美元的机制。分析师包括 Samantha Dart在内的团队估算，"如果私人持有的美国国债市场中仅有1%的资金流入黄金，在其他条件不变的情 况下，金价将升至每盎司近5000美元"。 该投行将黄金描述为"不依赖机构信任的价值储存工具"，这一特性在央行独立性面临质疑时显得尤为重要。报告 指出，美联储独立性受损将导致一系列连锁反应，包括通胀预期上升、传统金融资产吸引力下降，以及美元国际 地位的潜在动摇。 黄金今年已成为表现最强 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs warns that if the credibility of the Federal Reserve is compromised, a small shift of U.S. Treasury holdings to gold could drive prices to nearly $5,000 per ounce [1][5] - The report outlines three scenarios for gold prices: a baseline prediction of $4,000 by mid-2026, a tail risk scenario of $4,500, and an extreme case where just 1% of private U.S. Treasury holdings flow into gold, pushing prices close to $5,000 [1][5][6] - Gold is characterized as a "store of value that does not rely on institutional trust," making it particularly appealing in the context of concerns over central bank independence [5][6] Group 2 - Recent actions by Trump to exert control over the Federal Reserve, including attempts to remove board member Lisa Cook, have raised concerns about the central bank's independence [4] - ECB President Christine Lagarde has warned that a loss of independence for the Federal Reserve could pose "serious dangers" to the global economy [4] - Goldman Sachs maintains a strong bullish stance on gold, viewing it as the "highest conviction buy" in the commodities sector, with significant price increases expected even under baseline conditions [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - Stephen Milan, nominated by President Donald Trump for the Federal Reserve Board, emphasizes the importance of maintaining the Fed's independence and its dual mandate of "price stability and maximum employment" [1][2] Group 1: Nomination and Responsibilities - Milan's nomination aims to fill the remaining term of Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler, which ends on January 31, 2026 [1] - If confirmed, Milan will complete Kugler's remaining term rather than becoming a permanent member [1] Group 2: Policy Stance and Economic Analysis - Trump has long advocated for significantly lowering borrowing costs, while Milan has previously criticized the Fed's aggressive stimulus measures during the COVID-19 pandemic [2] - Milan commits to making decisions based on macroeconomic analysis and long-term optimization if confirmed [2] Group 3: Independence and Oversight - Milan stresses the importance of the Federal Open Market Committee's independence and its responsibility to serve the American public [2] - He expresses concerns regarding the Fed's activities beyond its dual mandate, particularly related to the central bank's balance sheet [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts are expected to drive further inflows into gold ETFs, potentially pushing gold prices to approximately $3,675 per ounce by the end of the year, with projections of reaching $4,000 in Q2 of next year and $4,250 by the end of 2026, particularly if there are successful efforts to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook [1][1][1] Group 1 - Analyst Patrick Jones from JPMorgan highlights that the expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will likely lead to increased investments in gold ETFs [1] - The forecasted gold price of $3,675 per ounce by year-end is based on the assumption of favorable monetary policy changes [1] - The potential removal of Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve could have broader implications for the Fed's structure and independence, which may significantly impact long-term gold prices [1][1]

Core Points - The recent conflict between the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve has drawn global attention, highlighting the tension between political power and institutional independence [1][3] - Trump's actions, including the dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook, reflect a significant shift in the relationship between the presidency and the Federal Reserve, raising concerns about the independence of monetary policy [3][5] - The potential implications of this power struggle could destabilize not only the U.S. economy but also the global financial system, as the credibility of the Federal Reserve is crucial for global asset pricing [5][7] Group 1 - The Trump administration's approach to the Federal Reserve has been characterized by direct intervention and pressure, undermining the traditional independence of the central bank [1][3] - Trump's dismissal of Cook, based on unsubstantiated allegations, exemplifies a new precedent where presidential authority overrides established legal norms regarding the removal of Federal Reserve officials [3][5] - The political motivations behind these actions are evident, as they are aimed at consolidating power and influencing the upcoming 2026 midterm elections [5][7] Group 2 - The response from international figures, such as ECB President Lagarde, indicates widespread concern over the potential risks posed by Trump's interference in the Federal Reserve [5][7] - The current political landscape, with the Republican Party controlling both houses of Congress, limits the effectiveness of opposition voices, allowing Trump's agenda to proceed with minimal resistance [7][8] - The ongoing struggle between the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve reflects deeper societal conflicts and could lead to significant shifts in the U.S.'s position as a global financial leader [7][8]

Group 1 - The core concern is whether Stephen Milan's potential appointment to the Federal Reserve Board will undermine the central bank's long-standing independence amid ongoing pressure from the Trump administration [1][3] - Milan emphasizes the importance of the Federal Reserve's independence in preventing severe economic downturns and hyperinflation, stating that he will prioritize this independence if confirmed [3][4] - If confirmed, Milan will fill the vacancy left by Adriana Kugler's resignation and may only serve for a few months before her term officially ends in January [3] Group 2 - There is a prevailing view that Trump's nomination of Milan aims to position him as a "shadow chairman" within the Federal Reserve, primarily to disrupt the current decision-making balance rather than to formulate conventional policies [4] - As a Federal Reserve Board member, Milan would gain voting rights on interest rate decisions and significant regulatory decisions related to Wall Street, which could indirectly affect the central bank's operational efficiency [4] - Trump's intention is clear, as he has expressed a desire for a majority of the Federal Reserve Board to support his policy views, which would allow him greater flexibility to alter the Fed's policy direction [4]