Core Viewpoint - The passage of the GENIUS Act in the U.S. House of Representatives has created significant turbulence in the global cryptocurrency market, marking a pivotal moment for the industry with strict regulations on stablecoins [1][3]. Group 1: Regulatory Changes - The GENIUS Act mandates that all stablecoin issuers must hold reserves in a 1:1 ratio with U.S. dollars or short-term U.S. Treasury securities, requiring monthly public disclosures of their assets [1]. - Non-bank entities wishing to issue stablecoins must obtain a special license, while major banks are granted expedited access to the new market [1][3]. - A critical provision in the act states that stablecoins can only be used for payment settlements and cannot be classified as securities or commodities, aiming to bypass traditional banking systems [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the act's passage, Ethereum surged by 7% to over $3,600, while Bitcoin surpassed $120,000, with other cryptocurrencies like XRP and Dogecoin also experiencing significant gains of over 10% [3]. - However, the market also saw a dramatic fallout, with 160,000 investors liquidated within 24 hours, resulting in $585 million lost, and the largest single liquidation amounting to $23 million [3]. Group 3: Future Projections - U.S. Treasury Secretary predicts that the stablecoin market could grow to $2 trillion by 2028, significantly exceeding the current $250 billion market size, which would compel stablecoin issuers to purchase large amounts of U.S. Treasury securities [3]. - Major tech companies like Apple and PayPal are accelerating their entry into the payment sector, potentially sidelining algorithmic stablecoins that lack transparency [3]. Group 4: Political and Institutional Dynamics - Trump's personal meme coin has reportedly generated $350 million, and his family-associated stablecoin USD1 has seen a 40% increase in circulation following the act's passage [4]. - The Federal Reserve has expressed strong opposition to Trump's plans to allow $9 trillion in 401k funds to flow into the cryptocurrency market, with key Fed officials warning that such policies could lead to inflation [4]. - The SEC and CFTC are engaged in a jurisdictional dispute over the classification of cryptocurrencies as either securities or commodities, which could lead to a redefinition of major cryptocurrencies [6]. Group 5: Institutional Responses - Major banks like JPMorgan and Citigroup are quickly establishing digital asset departments, although skepticism remains regarding the market demand for stablecoins from some banking executives [6]. - Despite doubts, the stock price of Circle (issuer of USDC) has surged by 25% in two weeks, and inquiries from Goldman Sachs clients have tripled, indicating strong interest in digital assets [6].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around macroeconomic insights, particularly focusing on the Federal Reserve's independence, currency exchange rates, and the implications of tariffs on effective tax rates in the United States. Additionally, there are insights into the Taiwanese market and the Australian economy. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Federal Reserve Independence**: - Undermining the Federal Reserve's independence is viewed negatively for the dollar, leading to a decrease in USDJPY and lower front-end US yields, while back-end yields are higher, indicating a steepening yield curve. The impact on equities remains uncertain, although the S&P initially fell [3][4][6]. 2. **Effective Tax Rate (ETR) Changes**: - Tariffs implemented to date have raised the US effective tax rate by 9 percentage points, with an expected further increase of approximately 8 percentage points by early 2027. This is attributed to proposed higher tariffs on a significant portion of US imports [4][10][12]. 3. **Taiwanese Market Dynamics**: - There is still USD 5 billion in dividends to be paid to foreign investors in July, indicating continued foreign investment interest. Despite the passing of TSMC dividends, there remains substantial buying interest in the market [20][21][25]. 4. **Australian Economic Outlook**: - Recent employment data showed an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.3%, which is higher than expected. This suggests a weakening labor market, leading to expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the RBA in the upcoming meeting [28][31][32]. 5. **Dollar Index (DXY) Trends**: - The DXY is currently testing the 50-day moving average, which has previously capped the index. A close above this level could lead to a bullish outlook for the dollar until the summer holiday lull is over [6][7]. 6. **Market Sentiment and Future Projections**: - The market is sensitive to upcoming economic data releases and speeches from key figures, which could influence monetary policy decisions. There is a growing concern about the sustainability of the current economic recovery and the potential need for further easing [33][34]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The potential for a deeper easing cycle in Australia is heightened by the RBA's cautious approach, which may lead to more significant rate cuts if economic conditions do not improve [28][32]. - The Japanese political landscape is also under scrutiny, with concerns about the ruling coalition's ability to maintain a majority in the upcoming elections, which could impact fiscal policy and market stability [37][38]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape and its implications for various markets.

在美国经济的第一季度发生罕见下滑的情况下，曾高呼要"拯救美国"的特朗普突然觉得尴尬。尽管特朗 普曾推行关税政策并引发了轩然大波，但他依然指责美国经济政策效率低下。自特朗普执政以来，美联 储主席鲍威尔显得非常谨慎，始终保持观望态度，拒绝实施降息以释放更多货币。尽管鲍威尔是特朗普 任命的，但是在拜登上任后，他意外地没有被替换。鲍威尔的多项经济政策逐渐倾向民主党，并且在拜 登的任期内，他多次进行的加息和降息决策令美国政府感到"满意"。 与之形成鲜明对比的是特朗普时期的鲍威尔。以特朗普在4月份发起的全球关税战为例，鲍威尔当时第 一时间拒绝了降息以稳住局势，这导致美元和美债遭受了重大冲击。面对这样的情况，特朗普甚至威胁 要让鲍威尔辞职，而鲍威尔对此却毫不在意。特朗普邀请鲍威尔到白宫进行会谈，这也是两人自特朗普 再次当选以来的首次见面。在会谈中，特朗普当面对鲍威尔提出批评，但最终并没有任何实质性的结 果。如今，共和党内部甚至有声音正在指责鲍威尔"不为共和党利益服务"，并称其为"间谍人选"。 值得特别指出的是，民主党曾指责特朗普"把美联储当作自己的私人公司"。事实上，根据美国宪法，美 联储是根据《联邦储备法》设立的，享有独 ...

智通财经APP获悉，芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比周五接受媒体采访时，对美联储主席鲍威尔表达坚定支 持，并强调央行独立性对经济至关重要。他表示，鲍威尔是一位"极具操守的人"，并称"几乎所有经济 学家都一致认为，央行应独立于政治干预，否则将对通胀、增长与就业市场造成不利影响。" 古尔斯比此番表态正值特朗普及其盟友对鲍威尔施压加剧之际。特朗普批评鲍威尔对利率政策"过于谨 慎"，对其"观望"态度及对关税通胀风险的担忧表示不满，甚至近期有传闻称特朗普有意解职鲍威尔， 尽管他本人对此予以否认，却也未完全排除这一可能性。 古尔斯比在接受采访时强调："在那些央行缺乏独立性的国家，通胀普遍更高，经济增长更弱，失业更 严重。"他直言，"当听到有人讨论是否应剥夺美联储的独立性时，我感到非常痛心，因为这种讨论只会 带来负面影响。" 除了政治施压，鲍威尔近期也面临来自特朗普阵营的新一轮质疑。白宫官员拿美联储总部25亿美元的翻 修项目说事，质疑鲍威尔是否在国会作证时如实说明相关资金用途，意图借此削弱其公信力。 美联储独立性问题近期再度成为美国政坛与市场关注焦点。 当被问及是否支持在今年秋季降息时，古尔斯比表示，如果未来几个月通胀数据继续温和， ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market showed stable performance with major indices entering a consolidation phase after consecutive gains, driven by strong economic data and corporate earnings, despite rising concerns over potential tariffs on EU goods [1][3]. Economic Data - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey indicated a significant drop in short-term inflation expectations, with one-year inflation expectations falling from 5% in June to 4.4% in July, alleviating concerns about persistent inflation [2]. - The U.S. Department of Labor reported a decrease in initial jobless claims, signaling a healthy job market, following a period of increased claims earlier in the spring [6][7]. Corporate Earnings - Netflix reported second-quarter earnings that exceeded expectations but failed to excite the market, leading to a decline in its stock price due to high valuation concerns [4]. - American Express delivered strong earnings, indicating robust spending among high-end consumers, which supports the overall economy [5]. Market Sentiment - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached historical closing highs, bolstered by strong economic data and corporate earnings, while concerns over tariff policies temporarily eased consumer confidence worries [3][4]. - Despite the positive economic indicators, uncertainties remain regarding trade policies and the potential impact on market stability, particularly with the looming decision on tariffs against EU imports [4][7].

美联储古尔斯比：独立性对美联储的运作至关重要。 ...

宏 观 研 究 华福证券 2025 年 07 月 18 日 经济好转联储反击，美元升值态势延续 ——宏观周报（第 13 期） 投资要点： 宏 观 定 期 报 告 美国零售大幅反弹，就业连续改善。汽车销售升温，美国 6 月零售大 幅反弹，现有关税影响程度较小。减税法案落地支撑居民收入，美国商品 消费可能加速升温。美国 6 月零售同比大幅反弹 0.6 个百分点至 3.9%，主 要拉动来自汽车。3 月以来美国汽车零售整体位于 2024 年以来较高区间， 显示当前关税对美国耐用消费品需求冲击幅度有限。近期美国新一轮减税 法案落地，中高收入群体收入获得支撑，美国居民消费特别是可选耐用商 品消费需求可能加速升温。美国初请失业金人数连续第 5 周大幅下行，显 示近期就业持续向好，关税对供给侧影响不大。就业和薪资改善的前景可 能意味着美联储降息必要性持续下降。截至 7 月 12 日美国当周初请失业金 人数（季调）仅 22.1 万人，较前周再度下行 0.7 万人，连续第 5 周大幅下 降并创近 13 周新低。预计下半年美国劳动力市场可能再度趋于紧张，就业 和薪资趋于改善，届时美元指数可能迎来大幅反弹。 日本通胀强弩之末，存在重 ...

Core Viewpoint - The independence of the Federal Reserve is facing unprecedented challenges due to ongoing pressure from Trump on Chairman Powell, leading to a reassessment of the central bank's policy outlook in the market. However, JPMorgan believes there is no need for excessive concern [1][2]. Group 1: Political Pressure on the Federal Reserve - JPMorgan's Ilan Benhamou noted that the Federal Reserve has historically operated under political pressure, not just during Trump's presidency [2]. - The potential dismissal of Powell is less significant than the fact that his term is nearing its end, with increasing dovish sentiment expected to drive the market, particularly in the context of anticipated interest rate cuts [2][6]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - Trump's drafting of a letter to dismiss Powell initially caused a drop in U.S. stocks and the dollar, but the market quickly reversed after Trump denied the intention to fire Powell [3]. - JPMorgan recommends continuing to buy the S&P 500 and VIX indices, anticipating increased investment in risk assets like cryptocurrencies and AI, while acknowledging that tariffs, inflation, and Fed policy uncertainties will heighten market volatility [3][6]. Group 3: Historical Context and Independence Myth - Benhamou emphasized that the current situation reflects a long-standing issue, citing historical conflicts between past presidents and Fed chairs, such as President Johnson's pressure on Chairman Martin in 1965 [4]. - The notion of the Federal Reserve's independence is described as a "myth," with significant figures from major Wall Street firms advocating for the Fed's operational independence from political influence [5]. Group 4: Legal Implications of Dismissing Powell - The Federal Reserve Act allows for the dismissal of board members, including the chairman, "for cause," with Trump and allies suggesting potential reasons for Powell's dismissal [9]. - If Powell were to be dismissed, he could immediately file for an injunction to restore his position, but if denied, the vice chairman would assume the role [9]. Group 5: Supreme Court's Stance - The Supreme Court previously ruled that Trump could not dismiss Powell without cause, recognizing the Fed as a "uniquely structured quasi-private entity," but left open the possibility for "for cause" dismissals [10]. - Legal experts suggest that even if the court finds a dismissal unlawful, it remains uncertain whether Powell could retain his position due to the court's limitations on providing "equitable relief" [10].

Group 1: International Gold Market - On Thursday, international gold prices fluctuated and closed lower, opening at $3347.41 per ounce, reaching a high of $3352.25, and a low of $3309.57, ultimately closing at $3338.85 per ounce [1][9] - COMEX gold futures closed at $3345.40 per ounce [9] - The SPDR gold ETF holdings stood at 948.5 tons, indicating a significant investment in gold [10][11] Group 2: Currency and Monetary Policy - The onshore RMB closed at 7.1796 against the USD, a decrease of 20 basis points from the previous trading day, while the USD index rose by 0.36% to 98.6419 [1][16] - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 450.5 billion yuan, with a net injection of 360.5 billion yuan after 90 billion yuan matured [11] Group 3: Economic Data and Employment - In June, US retail sales increased by 0.6%, surpassing market expectations of 0.1%, and rebounding from a previous decline of 0.9%, indicating strong consumer spending [1][17] - Initial jobless claims in the US decreased by 7,000 to 221,000, marking the lowest level since mid-April and reflecting resilience in the labor market [1][17] Group 4: Market Reactions and Concerns - Following the release of retail sales data, international gold prices quickly dropped, briefly falling below the $3310 mark before recovering some losses [1][17] - Concerns have been raised by executives from major US financial institutions regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, suggesting that political interference could severely disrupt global capital markets [1][17]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The overnight economic data in the US showed an overall improvement. The better - than - expected retail data in June and the decline in the weekly initial jobless claims drove the short - term strengthening of the US dollar and US stocks, putting pressure on precious metals, which are expected to maintain a short - term volatile trend. Gold maintains a long - term bullish trend, and silver retains a medium - term bullish view with cautious consideration of its elasticity. Attention should be paid to the new round of trade game in the first half of August and the change in interest - rate cut expectations brought by the global central bank meeting in the second half of August, as well as the trading interference from the "shadow Fed chairman" in the second half of the year. The weekly COMEX gold is expected to be in the range of [3250, 3450], and COMEX silver in the range of [36, 40] [1][3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Key Information - US retail sales in June increased by 0.6% month - on - month, the highest since March this year, with an expected increase of 0.1% and a previous decrease of 0.9%. Core retail sales increased by 0.5% month - on - month, with an expected increase of 0.3% and a previous decrease (revised) of 0.2% [2]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 221,000, with an expected 235,000. The four - week average was 229,500. The number of continued jobless claims as of the week ending July 5 was 1.956 million [2]. - US President Trump said he has no plan to fire Fed Chairman Powell unless fraud is proven. He also said he would accept Powell's resignation if Powell wants to [2]. - The Fed's latest Beige Book showed that economic activity in the US slightly rebounded from June to July. Import tariffs pushed up costs, and inflation may accelerate by the end of summer. Employment slightly increased, but companies were more cautious in hiring and lay - off decisions. The Fed's policy rate remained unchanged, and most officials were waiting to observe the impact of trade policies and inflation trends [2]. Price Logic The market had short - term fluctuations around the issue of Powell's possible dismissal. After Trump denied the dismissal rumor, market sentiment subsided. The overall improvement in US economic data drove the short - term strengthening of the US dollar and US stocks, putting pressure on precious metals, which maintained a short - term volatile trend. Long - term gold is bullish, and medium - term silver is also bullish with cautious consideration of its elasticity [3]. Outlook The weekly COMEX gold is expected to be in the range of [3250, 3450], and COMEX silver in the range of [36, 40] [3].