专题：2025第十六届夏季达沃斯论坛 新华社天津6月24日电 题："不论是中期看还是长远看，我都对中国经济抱乐观态度"——专访世界经 济论坛总裁博尔格·布伦德 新华社记者朱超、刘红霞、张宇琪 第十六届夏季达沃斯论坛6月24日至26日在天津举行。世界经济论坛总裁博尔格·布伦德23日接受新华社 记者专访时表示，在世界经济形势严峻复杂背景下，中国经济展现出强劲韧性，"不论是中期看还是长 远看，我都对中国经济抱乐观态度"。 本届论坛吸引了来自90多个国家和地区的1700余名政、商、学、媒体界代表参会，人数创近年新 高。"环顾世界，众多国际工商界人士希望投资中国，也期待同中国深化贸易合作。"布伦德说，这在全 球贸易面临与日俱增的关税和非关税壁垒背景下尤为可贵。 他高度评价中国在绿色发展方面取得的显著成就。国际可再生能源署数据显示，近年来全球风电和光伏 发电项目平均度电成本大幅下降，这很大程度上归功于中国贡献。"今年，我们预计中国新能源汽车产 量将同比增长40%以上。"布伦德说，毋庸置疑，中国的能源转型走在了世界前列。 谈及全球贸易形势，布伦德不无担忧地指出，长期以来贸易增速约为全球经济增速的两倍，是推动世界 经济发展的 ...

美国总统特朗普：我们将与印度达成贸易协议。 跟踪全球贸易动向 +订阅 ...

跟踪全球贸易动向 +订阅 泰国商务部官员：贸易提案将于周五提交给美国。 ...

欧洲委员会：关于欧盟接受10%美国关税的报道是猜测性的，并不反映当前的讨论状况。 跟踪全球贸易动向 +订阅 ...

证券研究报告 宽观 5 月全球 PMI:关税暂缓推动订单反 华泰研究 2025年6月12日|中国内地 动态点评 图说全球 PMI | 2025年5月 本系列为华泰宏观出品、全球 PMI月度追踪系列的第二十三期。5月全球制 造业 PMI 回落,但关税降级推动大部分国家制造业 PMI 改善,其中,欧元 区、东盟、墨西哥等国家和地区表现较好;制造业新订单和新出口订单或受 益于抢出口大多出现回升;价格指标维持高位,库存稳步上行。5月全球服 务业 PMI 有所回升,但主要受美国提振,欧日均有所回落。 5 月全球 PMI 走势概述:服务业景气度上行带动 5 月全球综合 PMI 上行 0.4pp 至 51.2。制造业 PMI:大部分国家制造业 PMI 均有所改善:美国 Markit 和 ISM 制造业 PM 走势分化,后者有所回落:欧元区则延续年初以来回升 的趋势;从绝对水平看,印度>美国 Markit>拉美>俄罗斯>欧元区=日本>东 盟>中国台湾地区>英国。服务业 PMI:全球服务业 PMI 景气度回升,主要 由美国 Markit 服务业 PMI 上行带动,欧元区和日本均走弱。订单:全球制 造业新订单延续下行,但出口新订 ...

Core Viewpoint - The need for cooperative solutions to maintain prosperity goals amidst geopolitical tensions is emphasized by the ECB President Lagarde [1] Group 1: Responsibilities of Countries - Both surplus and deficit countries must take responsibility and fulfill their roles in addressing trade tensions [1] - All nations should review their structural and fiscal policies to explore adjustments that could mitigate their contributions to escalating trade tensions [1] Group 2: Role of Central Banks - Central banks are urged to play their part by implementing policies focused on stability to address increasing volatility and instability [1] Group 3: Global Trade Cooperation - In a fragmented world, regions need to collaborate to sustain the global trade that has brought prosperity in recent years [1] - The current geopolitical situation presents a significant challenge to achieving this cooperation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. International Trade Court ruled that Trump's tariff policies are unconstitutional, leading to a significant impact on global trade dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Court Ruling and Legal Basis - The court's decision invalidated Trump's tariffs, stating that the president does not have unlimited authority to impose tariffs without congressional approval [2]. - The ruling emphasized that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act only allows the president to impose tariffs in cases of extraordinary threats to national security [1][4]. Group 2: Impact on Trade Policies - The ruling effectively halts three types of tariffs imposed by Trump, including those against China, Canada, and Mexico, as well as the so-called reciprocal tariffs against multiple countries [1][4]. - The decision is seen as a positive development for global trade, potentially easing tensions and promoting a more equitable trade environment [6]. Group 3: Political and Economic Implications - The lawsuit was initiated by five small U.S. businesses adversely affected by Trump's tariffs, highlighting the internal conflict and economic strain caused by these policies [6]. - The outcome of the ruling may influence the future of U.S. trade policy and the ongoing trade war, with global stakeholders closely monitoring the situation [6].

Group 1 - The U.S. Court of Appeals has reinstated Trump's tariff policy, which includes a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, and a 10% tariff on goods from China, affecting over $2 trillion in goods [1][3] - The automotive industry is significantly impacted, with U.S. manufacturers like Ford facing increased costs due to tariffs on key components, and Japan's auto exports to the U.S. suffering heavily, accounting for nearly 30% of its total exports [3][4] - Global companies, including Apple and Ford, have reportedly incurred losses exceeding $34 billion due to the implementation of Trump's tariffs [3] Group 2 - The high tariffs have led to rising import prices, contributing to inflation in the U.S., with a potential 0.5% increase in consumer price inflation if effective tariff rates rise by 3.3% [4] - The U.S. manufacturing sector is struggling, requiring an estimated $2.9 trillion in investment to reach employment levels seen in 1979, while the uncertainty from tariff policies is hindering hiring [4] - The EU and Japan have expressed strong opposition to the tariffs, with the EU planning retaliatory measures and Japan firmly rejecting the automotive tariffs, indicating a shift in their previously cooperative stance with the U.S. [6][7] Group 3 - China is actively responding to Trump's tariffs by strengthening trade relations with neighboring countries and maintaining communication with the EU, indicating a strategic approach to mitigate the impact of U.S. policies [7] - The global economic landscape is becoming increasingly unstable due to Trump's tariffs, which are perceived as isolating the U.S. on the international stage rather than achieving the intended "America First" objectives [7]

英国央行货币政策委员丁格拉：对全球贸易不会陷入最坏情况略感宽慰。 ...

Group 1 - Global market downturn triggered by geopolitical uncertainties, including US tariff policies and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with the Hang Seng Index dropping 2.2% to 22,778 points and a trading volume of HKD 883.9 billion [1] - Analysts predict a potential second "slight" pullback in the market from late May to July, influenced by increased market supply from numerous financing projects in Hong Kong [1] - The performance of the A-share market, which is currently closed, may impact the Hang Seng Index due to a lack of support from mainland funds, with expectations of a strong performance upon reopening [1] Group 2 - Increased IPO pressure in the Hong Kong market has led to greater market supply, with high-profile companies engaging in large-scale placements, resulting in valuation pressures [2] - Structural bubbles are forming in the new consumption sector, where companies are experiencing a divergence between high valuations and underwhelming performance, necessitating market correction [2] - Analysts foresee opportunities in undervalued sectors in the second half of the year, while previously heavily financed sectors may face challenges [2]