外卖大战，战而不休为哪般？｜特别策划 一段时间以来，外卖平台企业为争夺即时零售流量入口，反复发起"百亿补贴""大额神券"等外卖大额补贴活动，使大量餐饮企业陷入"不参与就没 流量，参与就破价亏损"的恶性循环，滋生一系列畸形现象。5月以来，国家市场监督管理总局两次约谈相关平台，但外卖平台补贴大战仍然此起 彼伏，给餐饮市场带来深刻影响。 正常的市场竞争不应该遏制，但有必要对非理性竞争行为加以引导。"价格战"本质是一种低效甚至无效竞争，"百亿补贴"或许一时让消费者得 利、商家涨单、骑手增收，但几乎每一轮烧钱大战过后，都伴随着新的负面效果。而爆单留下的非理性消费、客单利润摊薄、骑手疲于奔命、商 品质量与服务下降等后患，则需要市场和消费者用更长时间消化。 盘点餐饮小店的生存账 最近一段时间，数以百万的餐饮商家卷入以"补贴"为名的漩涡。在这个当口，许多中小餐饮商家要同时面对两道选择题：外卖生意，做还是不 做？做的话，卷还是不卷？ 1 "标价20多元的面，毛利剩一块" "看似是平台出几百亿在补贴消费者，但商家却出了大头。"说话间，李新宇打开了某平台的商家后台，向记者展示起外卖订单的"B面"。他在河南 商丘经营着一家韩餐店，堂 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the robust growth of e-commerce in China, with online retail sales increasing by 9.2% year-on-year from January to July, marking a new high for the year [1] - The online retail sector is reshaping consumer shopping habits and the retail landscape, driven by technological advancements such as big data and artificial intelligence, which enhance shopping efficiency [1][2] - The number of online shopping users in China has surpassed 900 million, with rural online retail sales growing by 6.4% in the first seven months of the year, indicating a shift in consumption patterns among rural residents [1][2] Group 2 - Policies like trade-in programs have significantly boosted rural consumption, with sales during the "618" shopping festival in county areas increasing by 54%, highlighting a shift towards new consumer goods [2] - The China Chain Store & Franchise Association reported that the top 100 online retail companies achieved a total sales volume of 2.17 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.6% [2] - The ongoing transformation in the online retail market emphasizes the need for high-quality consumer supply and the expansion of new e-commerce models such as live streaming and instant retail [2][3] Group 3 - The increase in online retail activity has raised expectations for logistics efficiency, necessitating improvements in service networks and technology applications to meet diverse consumer needs [3] - There is a focus on enhancing the logistics distribution system, including cold chain logistics and village service stations, to facilitate better access to e-commerce for rural residents [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes a direct sales model without intermediaries, focusing on high-end private banquets and gift markets for its Wuling liquor products [1]. Group 1: Financial Management and Cost Control - The company has implemented comprehensive budget management and cost reduction initiatives to lower expense ratios and enhance profitability [1]. - In the first half of the year, the company actively expanded its regional market presence and increased targeted investments in brand promotion and consumer engagement despite industry challenges [1]. Group 2: Pricing Strategy and Market Positioning - The company has adopted an innovative marketing model with a direct-to-end consumer sales approach, avoiding middlemen and focusing on direct sales to terminal agents, major clients, and e-commerce platforms [1]. - The company aims to balance supply and demand to stabilize prices and promote healthy channel development, particularly in response to potential price fluctuations of competing products like Feitian Moutai [1]. Group 3: Online and Offline Integration - The company has strengthened its online presence by establishing official flagship stores on platforms such as JD, Tmall, Douyin, and Pinduoduo, tailoring products and strategies to different consumer characteristics [2]. - The company is embracing instant retail channels and has partnered with Yima to effectively integrate online and offline resources for deeper operational synergy [2].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in adjusted net profit and gross margin due to intense competition in the instant retail sector, while new business revenues continue to grow but are impacted by overseas expansion losses [1][2][3] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 91.84 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 11.7% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 6.1% [1] - The gross margin was 33.1%, down from 41.2% in the same period last year [2] - Adjusted net profit was 1.49 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year decrease of 89.0% [1][2] - The adjusted profit margin was 1.6%, down 14.9 percentage points year-over-year and 11 percentage points quarter-over-quarter [1][2] Business Segments - Core local business revenue reached 65.35 billion yuan, up 7.7% year-over-year, with delivery revenue at 23.66 billion yuan (up 2.8% year-over-year) and commission revenue at 24.95 billion yuan (up 12.9% year-over-year) [1] - New business revenue was 26.49 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 22.8%, but incurred a loss of 1.88 billion yuan due to overseas expansion [1][3] Competitive Landscape - Intense competition in instant retail is squeezing the company's profits, with significant increases in delivery subsidies, rider costs, and user subsidies [2] - The company’s operating profit is under pressure due to the competitive landscape, which is influenced by competitors' strategies [2] Growth Prospects - The company is expanding its new business segments, with strong growth in instant retail and plans for further expansion in both domestic and international markets [3] - The company has established over 50,000 flash warehouses nationwide and is exploring new delivery models [3] Investment Outlook - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 374 billion, 427.7 billion, and 489.5 billion yuan respectively, with a projected net profit of -10.2 billion, 15.8 billion, and 38.5 billion yuan [3] - The target market capitalization for 2025 is set at 712.9 billion yuan, with a target price of 127.93 HKD [3]

Group 1 - Xibei issued a second apology regarding the controversy over prepared dishes, changing the wording in their statement and promising to adjust some prepared dishes to be made fresh in-store by October 1 [1] - The founder of Xibei, Jia Guolong, faced backlash for derogatory comments about Luo Yonghao, which raised legal concerns regarding defamation [1] - Luo Yonghao criticized Xibei's promises as "false commitments" and questioned the quality and shelf life of the prepared dishes [1] Group 2 - Luo Yonghao announced that the owner of Hua Yu Hua has apologized to him, indicating a resolution to the previous conflict, while emphasizing the importance of consumer rights regarding prepared dishes [2] - Xiaomi's new 17 series smartphones are set to directly compete with Apple's iPhone, featuring the latest Snapdragon 8 Gen 2 chip and marking a significant upgrade for the brand [3] Group 3 - Pop Mart's new SKULLPANDA plush toys sold out quickly, with significant price premiums observed, although overall consumer enthusiasm appears to be declining compared to previous releases [4] - Midea has partnered with Tmall to enhance instant retail services, enabling rapid delivery from nearly 90 stores across 19 cities [4] Group 4 - Online retail sales in China reached 99,828 billion yuan in the first eight months of the year, showing a year-on-year growth of 9.6%, with physical goods sales growing by 6.4% [6] - Yonghui Supermarket plans to procure approximately 2,500 tons of chestnuts from a certified region known for its high-quality produce [8] Group 5 - Pinduoduo launched a significant subsidy program, reducing prices for the new iPhone 17 series by 1,000 yuan, making the iPhone 17 available for as low as 4,999 yuan [10] - JD MALL opened its first self-operated store in Shenzhen, featuring over 200 core brands and a wide range of products [11] Group 6 - JD is in talks to acquire Argos, the second-largest retail chain in the UK, which could enhance Argos's transformation with JD's expertise in retail and logistics [13] - Taobao Flash Sale and Ele.me initiated a "Bright Kitchen, Bright Stove" entrepreneurial support program aimed at assisting various entrepreneurs in the food industry [14] Group 7 - JD Seven Fresh launched a promotional event focused on Xinjiang products, showcasing local cuisine and culture while expanding its private label strategy [15] - Taobao Flash Sale anticipates a significant increase in brand participation for the upcoming Double 11 shopping festival [17] Group 8 - Meituan introduced a series of "Safe Consumption" products aimed at enhancing consumer protection and service quality across various sectors [18] - New national standards for food labeling are being implemented, with companies like Qianhe Flavor Industry leading the way in updating their packaging to comply with these regulations [20]

新华社北京9月15日电 9月15日,《新华每日电讯》发表题为《美团：中小商户实际收入减少不止15%》 的报道。 本报记者对话美团研究院执行院长厉基巍，探讨"外卖大战"将走向何方。 ——即时零售日均近3亿单，绝大部分是泡沫 记者：美团大量补贴外卖业务的初衷是什么？截至目前，即时零售市场的情况怎么样？ 美团：今年行业内几轮补贴战、价格战，美团都是被动卷入。从我们掌握的数据看，即时零售市场的 总量从年初的日均1亿单，上涨至7月的2.5亿单，到8月甚至接近3亿单。这其中绝大部分是泡沫，是补 贴大战下的虚假繁荣和无效增长。 第一，夏季"外卖大战"透支了消费热情和消费意愿，所以进入9月后，很多店铺订单量同比下滑。第 二，中小商户订单增速和大品牌大连锁店的差距进一步拉大。同时，外卖补贴力度大，价格比堂食低， 中小商户、夫妻老婆店生存会越来越困难。第三，发起补贴的平台，资源进一步向大品牌集中，营销推 广、研发创新、服务资源等投入差距也会进一步扩大。 记者：针对相关部门提出停止"内卷式"竞争，美团有何具体行动？ 美团：8月12日，美团外卖启动"堂食提振"计划，鼓励消费者到店聚餐或自提，把顾客和订单留给门 店。8月5日，美团启动 ...

中新网评：多平台竞争激活外卖生态，百万新就业"蓄水池"效应凸显 近日，全国总工会平台算法和劳动规则协商工作现场交流会在上海召开。当天，调研组走访调研饿了么 等企业，深入了解新就业形态劳动者权益保障、平台算法应用和劳动规则向善透明举措、平台骑士就业 及发展等情况，对平台在进一步加强骑士保障、新增百万就业和促进收入增长等方面取得的成效，调研 组表示肯定。 最近几个月，多平台参与了外卖市场竞争，一定程度上促进了就业。平台数据显示，淘宝闪购的日均活 跃骑手已经超过200万人的规模，对比四月增长3倍。这意味着，淘宝闪购创造了超百万个新就业。 就业增加、从业者收入提升，前提是市场蛋糕做大、行业健康可持续发展。 外卖市场近期的迅速增长有目共睹，相比5月，日订单数翻倍增长至2亿单以上。早前，中国新就业形态 研究中心主任、首都经贸大学劳动经济学院副教授张成刚测算，在主要外卖平台日订单突破1亿单时， 估算活跃骑手数量预计翻一倍，如果放到整个外卖市场上，预计拉动骑手人数约为150万人。 数据分析机构QuestMobile的调研数据显示，今年7月外卖员的数量同比去年增加了74.8%。 这再次证明了服务消费吸纳就业的巨大潜力。 数据还 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) [1] Core Views - The company reported Q2 2025 earnings with revenue of 91.84 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.1%. However, the gross margin decreased to 33.1% from 41.2% in the same period last year, and the adjusted net profit was 1.49 billion yuan, down 89.0% year-on-year [1][4] - The intense competition in instant retail is suppressing profits, and the recovery of profitability in the short term needs to be observed in terms of competitive dynamics and new business developments [1][4] - The core local business revenue reached 65.35 billion yuan, up 7.7% year-on-year, while new business revenue grew by 22.8% to 26.49 billion yuan, driven by grocery retail and overseas expansion [1][4] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 337.59 billion yuan, 373.99 billion yuan, 427.68 billion yuan, and 489.47 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 22.0%, 10.8%, 14.4%, and 14.4% [3] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same years are 43.77 billion yuan, -10.21 billion yuan, 15.78 billion yuan, and 38.55 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 88.2%, -123.3%, 254.6%, and 144.3% [3] - The target price for the stock is set at 127.93 HKD, with the current price at 96.55 HKD, indicating a potential upside [4]

Group 1: Core Insights - The community retail sector is experiencing significant growth, with major players like Walmart, Hema, and Aldi expanding their community store formats to meet consumer demand for convenience and immediacy [2][3][22] - Walmart's community store model emphasizes a "10-minute walking radius" and features around 2,000 selected products in a compact space of approximately 500 square meters, marking a shift from traditional large-format stores [2][4] - The community retail market is projected to reach a scale of 2.8 trillion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 15.3% from 2023 to 2025 [13] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Hema's community store "Super Box" has nearly 300 locations, focusing on a streamlined SKU strategy with a maximum of 1,500 products and store sizes between 600-800 square meters [6] - Aldi has begun expanding beyond Shanghai, with its first store in Wuxi achieving sales of over 1 million yuan on its opening day, utilizing aggressive pricing strategies [8] - Meituan's discount supermarket "Happy Monkey" plans to open 10 stores by 2025, with a long-term goal of 1,000 locations [10] Group 3: Business Model and Strategy - The hard discount model is characterized by a focus on supply chain efficiency, with a significant reduction in SKU counts to enhance purchasing power and maintain quality at lower prices [11] - The integration of instant retail with hard discounting allows for a new operational model where stores serve as both sales points and local warehouses, enabling rapid delivery services [12] - The average gross margin in the hard discount sector is only 10-15%, necessitating a careful balance between scale expansion and cost control to maintain profitability [11] Group 4: Consumer Trends - Over 60% of consumers in Shanghai prioritize "low price without compromising quality," indicating a shift in perception towards hard discounting [16] - Fresh produce remains a key driver of sales in discount stores, highlighting the importance of quality alongside competitive pricing [16] - The consumer expectation for "good quality at a reasonable price" is becoming increasingly prevalent, with over 70% of consumers expressing this sentiment [15] Group 5: Market Potential - The community retail market in China is still in its early stages, with a projected market size of 3.5 trillion yuan by 2025 [13] - The penetration rate of hard discount retail in China is currently only 8%, compared to 42% in Germany and 31% in Japan, indicating substantial growth potential [20][21] - The hard discount market in China is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 5.6% over the next decade, outpacing traditional hypermarkets [21]

文｜酒讯 方圆 编辑｜念祎 编者按：随着酒业调整的持续深入，市场竞争愈发激烈，精准把握市场趋势已成为酒企发展的必备技 能。酒讯将携飞瓜数据周期性观察部分电商平台酒类消费数据，对市场需求进行及时洞察，以期为企业 发展战略、销售策略调整提供数据参考和事实依据。 8月，对于酒水价格体系而言，是一场硬仗。 即时零售价格战进入白热化阶段，进一步拉低酒水产品均价。从高端的飞天茅台、普五，到次高端的洋 河M6+、窖藏1988，乃至国台国标、泸州老窖特曲，这些市场上各价格带的热销爆款，在即时零售平台 上的售价均较上月进一步下探。 即时零售这种"击穿底价"势头正持续向整个酒类市场扩散。酒讯携手飞瓜数据对快手8月酒水销售情况 进行统计了解到，消费者在进行酒水消费时的价格倾向，已然与即时零售的低价氛围形成共振。 02 啤酒：大众与小众势均力敌 01 白酒：名酒"蓝海"待开发 在快手这样的下沉主阵地，白酒消费展现出更明显的"向下"倾向。 来自飞瓜数据的统计显示，快手8月白酒销售价格带分布中，100-800元价格区间销量占白酒品类的比例 较上月有所下降，其中，100-300元、300-500元、500-800元价格区间分别占比38.3 ...