美国总统特朗普在社交媒体最新发文："在我们的空中交通管制系统多年衰退之后，这项"大而美法 案"将使这一老旧设施实现现代化，为美国带来地球上最好、最先进的空中交通管制系统——绝对是迄 今为止最棒的！"，"大而美法案"将为美国带来最好的空管系统(新浪财经) ...

固定收益 | 固定收益专题 2025 年 06 月 27 日 作者 谭逸鸣 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110525050005 tanyiming@tfzq.com 唐海清 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110517030002 tanghaiqing@tfzq.com 裴明楠 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110525060004 peimingnan@tfzq.com 近期报告 1 《固定收益：信用主体骑乘库一览- 信用策略系列》 2025-06-26 美国经济观察 美国到"衰退"门槛还有多远？ 从 NBER 六大指标看，美国经济尚无"衰退"信号。今年 3 月以来，市场 持续下调美国经济增速预期，美国一季度 GDP 增速下修至-0.5%。美国经 济是否真的被"透支"空了呢？ NBER 采用 6 个底层指标判定"经济衰退 期"，截至今年 4 月，仅有 1 项指标进入明确下行趋势，4 项处于波动，1 项仍在上行趋势。 一季度美国 GDP 负增长是"技术性"现象。一季度美国 GDP 修正值-0.5% （季调环比折年率，下同），主因企业在关税前囤货，贸易逆差大增，"净 出口"拖累 GDP 增速 4 ...

美国总统特朗普：大而美法案是政策议程的最终体现。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rapid shift in President Trump's stance from military action against Iran to advocating for a ceasefire is primarily driven by economic factors, particularly the rising energy prices and their impact on inflation and U.S. economic policy [2][4][10]. Energy Prices and Inflation - Following Trump's announcement of military action against Iran, international oil prices surged, with WTI crude reaching over $78 per barrel and Brent crude hitting $81.4 [1]. - The increase in oil prices poses a direct threat to U.S. inflation, as energy expenditures account for approximately 6.2% of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) [5]. - Goldman Sachs estimates that a 10% rise in oil prices could increase the preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, by 0.04 percentage points, while a $10 increase in oil prices could reduce U.S. GDP growth by 0.1 percentage points [5][6]. Political Implications - Rising oil prices could lead to public dissatisfaction with Trump, potentially affecting midterm election outcomes [4][9]. - Trump's call for lower oil prices is seen as an attempt to mitigate inflationary pressures and influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [7][10]. Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - Concerns over inflation have prompted Trump to urge the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, as high rates could hinder his economic policies and the proposed "One Big Beautiful Bill" [10][11]. - The Federal Reserve's recent statements indicate that any signs of rising inflation could deter them from lowering rates, complicating Trump's fiscal plans [9][12]. Strategic Economic Planning - Trump's actions to stabilize energy prices and negotiate peace in the Middle East are viewed as necessary steps to create fiscal space for his spending plans, which could add at least $3 trillion to the federal deficit over the next decade [10][13]. - The anticipated increase in U.S. Treasury supply may lead to rising interest rates, complicating the financing of Trump's proposed fiscal initiatives [12].

世界贸易组织前首席经济学家库普曼（Robert Koopman）则强调，若高关税政策持续，将引发双重负面 效应，一方面，这将降低外资对美投资吸引力，减少资本净流入；同时，还会扭曲资源配置，促使劳动 力和资本从高附加值产业向低效的传统制造业回流。"（关税政策）会造成长期损失，减少创新，缩小 资本存量，并降低资本分配效率。"他称。 长期来看，关税将渐进性地削弱消费意愿、投资活动和并购交易。 在美国政府关税政策及其衍生不确定性的持续影响下，美国经济如何了？ 当地时间6月24日，美联储主席鲍威尔在国会听证会上表示，美联储有条件在"观望"进一步经济走势预 测后，再考虑对政策立场进行调整，他同时预警夏季通胀可能回升。同日，美国谘商会发布的数据则加 剧了市场忧虑，消费者信心指数从5月修正后的98.4骤降至6月的93.0，消费者对收入前景的预期也明显 恶化。 这一经济图景在天津举行的夏季达沃斯论坛上引发讨论。哈佛大学肯尼迪政府学院创始院长、"修昔底 德陷阱"理论提出者艾利森（Graham Allison）表示，美国经济增长预期已出现显著下调，从年初近3% 的增速预测现已腰斩至约1.5%。这种经济动能减弱也已反映在民调中，最新 ...

Economic Indicators - In May, the U.S. CPI rose slightly by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year to 2.4%, while the core CPI remained flat at 2.8% for the third consecutive month[2] - The month-on-month increases for May were 0.08% for CPI and 0.13% for core CPI, indicating a slight decline from April's figures[2] Inflation Dynamics - The core CPI's stagnation is attributed to the decline in durable goods prices and a cooling rental market, influenced by lower energy prices and temporary tariff impacts[3] - Core durable goods prices fell by 0.11% month-on-month in May, marking the lowest level this year, primarily due to OPEC+ production increases affecting international oil prices[3] Future Projections - Despite the current low inflation rates, the potential for core inflation to rebound remains due to sustained high wages and the anticipated passage of the "Big and Beautiful" plan, which could boost consumer demand[3] - The rental market saw a month-on-month increase of 0.26% in May, reflecting a lagging effect from previous interest rate peaks, suggesting potential upward pressure on housing prices and inflation in the future[3] Monetary Policy Outlook - The market's expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have increased, but the necessity for aggressive cuts is diminished due to low unemployment and high wage growth[3] - If the fiscal expansion plan is fully implemented, it may lead to a gradual increase in the dollar index and potential depreciation pressures on the RMB, limiting the People's Bank of China's monetary easing options[3] Risks - There is a risk that the Federal Reserve may cut rates faster than anticipated, which could impact market dynamics[4]

每经记者｜王砚丹 每经编辑｜彭水萍 沪指3400点关口，A股再次展开拉锯战。 6月10日早盘，沪指开盘即站上3400点关口，以3402.01点开盘，这也是3月22日以来沪指首次开盘即上3400点。整个早盘市场一直走势平稳，但下午开盘后 风云突变，三大指数快速跳水，13:30以后一度"深V"反抽，但重新冲关3400点最终失败。截至收盘，沪指跌0.44%，深证成指跌0.86%，创业板指跌1.17%。 沪深两市成交额达到14154亿元，较昨日放量1290亿。 从日K线来看，2025年以来，沪指3400点成为重要心理关口。如何看待今年以来A股反复震荡？投资者又将如何操作？ 多数卖方研究观点认为，端午后市场活跃度略超预期，但若想行情进一步展开仍需新增力量。当前市场尚未鸣响"发令枪"，2025年第二和第三季度仍可能处 于中枢偏高的震荡市。 节后市场略超预期，但行情进一步展开仍需新增力量 从盘面来看，近期红利与成长明显呈现"跷跷板"趋势——当成长股、科技股或中小市值个股活跃时，蓝筹、红利等板块就趋于休整；当市场热点缺乏或风险 偏好有所下降，蓝筹、红利等板块便会充当市场"稳定器"。10日的走势也印证了这点。 Choice统计 ...

上周，美国总统特朗普和特斯拉首席执行官马斯克矛盾骤然激化，在社交媒体上"隔空互撕"， 两人之间的密切关系在公众面前破裂。全球密切关注二人之间的关系走向。 特朗普在周一的一场新闻发布会上对马斯克采取了更为中立的口吻。 特朗普表示， 他不会处理掉自己购买的特斯拉 Model S，但可能会将其挪到别处 。 此前，马斯克还删除了多条在气头上发布的与特朗普有关的帖子，包括一条暗示特朗普与 "爱 泼斯坦案" 有关联的帖文。 上周五，特朗普在 "空军一号" 上被问及马斯克时，称自己太忙以至于 "没有想过埃隆"，"我 只是希望他一切都好"。几个小时后，马斯克在X上回复 "一样"。 这辆红色特斯拉是二人友情的象征，特朗普购买此车旨在鼓励人们购买特斯拉。当二人之间闹 翻后，有报道称，特朗普可能会将此车卖掉或转赠出去。 受上述消息提振，特斯拉股价周一收涨4.6%。 上周四，随着特朗普和马斯克之间的"口水 战"不断升级，，特斯拉股价下跌逾14%，市值蒸发了1520亿美元，创下史上最大单日跌 幅。 特朗普周一还表示， 他不会停止马斯克的星链服务，并称其为一项"很棒的服务" 。 他还表示， 祝愿马斯克"一切安好，非常安好" 。 当被问及 ...

Core Viewpoint - The proposed Section 899 of the "Big and Beautiful Act" aims to impose higher taxes on foreign investors in the U.S., causing significant concern and opposition from multinational corporations and financial institutions [1][2][4]. Group 1: Impact on Multinational Corporations - Approximately 70 multinational corporations, including Toyota, Shell, LVMH, and SAP, are set to discuss the implications of Section 899 with U.S. lawmakers [1]. - The International Bankers Association plans to lobby against the clause, highlighting its potential negative impact on global banking giants like HSBC and BNP Paribas [1][2]. Group 2: Taxation Details - Section 899 allows the U.S. Treasury Secretary to unilaterally determine "unfair foreign taxes" and impose punitive tax rates of up to 20% on affected foreign investors [2][4]. - The tax rate will start at an increase of 5 percentage points, rising annually by 5 percentage points, capped at 20 percentage points above the statutory rate [5]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The clause is projected to raise $116 billion over the next decade, but its revenue generation is considered limited compared to the overall debt increase of $2.4 trillion expected from the entire "Big and Beautiful Act" [5]. - The clause may deter foreign direct investment, potentially leading to market volatility and threatening job opportunities in various U.S. communities [6][7]. Group 4: Opposition from Business Associations - Business associations argue that Section 899 could severely impact the long-term growth of multinational companies operating in the U.S. [6]. - The International Financial Institute warns that the measure could have unintended negative effects on U.S. businesses and employment [7]. Group 5: Future Considerations - There is a possibility that the final version of the clause may be weakened or adjusted in its implementation, as the concept of foreign entities paying taxes in the U.S. gains traction in Congress [7].

以下文章来源于IN咖 ，作者聪明投资者 IN咖 . 多视角关注优秀投资人和企业家 " 我原本以为我们正迎来四年的高速增长和美国经济的强劲活力，但如今错失了太多机会。 " 美东时间 6 月 5 日举行 2025 年福布斯 " 异见者峰会 " 上， Citadel 创始人兼 CEO 肯 · 格里芬（ Ken Griffin ）参与了重磅对话，话题直指当下最棘手的三件事：关税风暴、美国债务危机以及 " 大而美法案 " 。 肯 · 格里芬创办的城堡投资（ Citadel ）目前管理的资产超过 660 亿美元。据 LCH Investments 统计， 城堡投资是史上盈利最高的对冲基金，截至 2024 年底，累计 回报约 830 亿美元，遥遥领先第二名 D.E. Shaw 的 672 亿美元，第三名的千禧年（ Millennium）则为 655亿美元。 同时，他旗下的做市巨头城堡证券更是承担了全美约四分之一的股票交易量。 去年 12 月，格里芬还曾对这届政府寄予厚望，期盼它能带来减税、去监管、鼓励增长的新气象，并高调宣 扬"美国已经开始对商业开放 " 。 如今再听他发言，语气早已转向：从关税政策到立法支出，他几乎句句都 ...