经历了一年持续不断的政策冲击之后，美国经济能否从特朗普的减税政策中获得提振，从而在2026年保 持扩张势头，效果待验证。 经济学家表示，尽管由于特朗普标志性减税法案的影响，美国纳税人在今年上半年将获得更高的退税， 对新增退税总额的估计数字在300亿至1000亿美元之间。对企业投资厂房和设备的激励措施也有望驱动 增长，而利率下降以及贸易政策更加稳定也将有所助益。 不过，预测人士认为仍有理由保持谨慎。预计特朗普财政刺激带来的消费者支出脉冲会随着时间推移而 减弱，而关税将继续对小企业造成尤为明显的拖累。失业率正在上升，对可负担性和不平等的担忧也在 加剧。人工智能热潮未必能带来其拥护者信誓旦旦的那种广泛增长，而美国对委内瑞拉的袭击也显示出 地缘政治不稳定的可能性。 综合来看，12月中旬经济学家预计，2026年美国经济增速为2%，与他们对2025年的预测相同。按美国 以往标准来看，这一速度并不算快。 "2026年将会成为不错的一年，既不火热，也不是衰退，只是稳健的趋势性增长，"惠誉评级的美国经济 研究主管Olu Sonola说。 美联储官员在上个月的会议上比华尔街略微更乐观，预计今年国内生产总值将增长2.3%。上周公布 ...

Core Points - The "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill, promoted by President Trump, is under intense debate in Congress, with Republicans claiming it will save $500 billion while Democrats argue it will increase the federal deficit by $4.45 trillion [3][5] - The bill is seen as a continuation and upgrade of Trump's previous tax cuts, aiming to reduce spending on social welfare while increasing military and border security expenditures [7][12] - The bill has faced significant opposition, with critics labeling it as a "Robin Hood in reverse" that primarily benefits the wealthy at the expense of low-income groups [10][12] Group 1 - The Senate Budget Committee Chairman, Graham, presented a new assessment claiming the bill would save approximately $500 billion under the "current policy baseline" [3] - In contrast, Senate Minority Leader Schumer argued that the bill would actually increase the federal deficit by $4.45 trillion, highlighting a fundamental disagreement in budget valuation methods between the two parties [5] - The ongoing debate reflects deeper issues regarding fiscal discipline and procedural legitimacy in the legislative process [5] Group 2 - The "Big and Beautiful" bill is characterized by significant tax rate cuts, reductions in renewable energy subsidies, and cuts to social security spending, which are politically sensitive topics in the U.S. [7] - The bill passed the House and Senate with narrow margins, indicating potential public discontent and concerns from foreign investors regarding its impact on economic stability [8][10] - The White House's optimistic economic analysis suggests that the bill will offset tax cut costs through economic growth and increased tariff revenues, but independent assessments predict a $3.3 trillion increase in national debt over the next decade [11][12]

Group 1: Market Sentiment - Retail investors are optimistic, with a bullish sentiment ratio rising to 33.2%, the highest since January[7] - The trading volume of small-cap stocks (priced under $1) has rebounded to 36.6%, reflecting increased retail speculation in tech stocks[2] - Institutional investors are becoming increasingly pessimistic, with 57% preferring non-US stocks and only 24% optimistic about US equities[27] Group 2: Economic Drivers - Optimism among retail investors is driven by expectations of policy easing, weakened fiscal tightening, and the unique position of US tech stocks as alternatives[2] - The US fiscal deficit remains high, with a projected $1 trillion in interest payments, limiting the effectiveness of tariff revenues[15] - The potential for a preemptive rate cut by the Federal Reserve could provide liquidity benefits, but may also confirm economic weakness[3] Group 3: Investment Risks - The high concentration and leverage of retail investments make them unstable, with a low probability of accurate market predictions[27] - Historical data shows that when retail bullish sentiment rises, the market often weakens in the following month[27] - Risks include unexpectedly strong US economic performance, fluctuations in tax policy, and accelerated AI commercialization impacting tech stock valuations[4]

Group 1 - The recent sell-off in the U.S. Treasury market is different from last month's situation, where the 10-year Treasury yield unexpectedly surged above 4.5% during a time of heightened trade war fears [2] - Current market conditions show a weakening expectation for Federal Reserve rate cuts, with Goldman Sachs predicting that the Fed may not cut rates until December, which contributes to rising Treasury yields [2] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reached 4.53%, and the long-term bond ETF TLT hit its lowest point since November 2023, indicating a significant decline in bond prices [2] Group 2 - The "Beautiful America Act" is projected to create a $3.7 trillion deficit over the next decade, raising annual deficits to over 7% of GDP, which could negatively impact Treasury bonds [3] - Domestic institutions have differing views on U.S. Treasuries; while some see risks due to potential debt expansion from tax cuts, others believe the U.S. has sufficient safety mechanisms to mitigate short-term default risks [3][4] - Historical analysis shows that the U.S. has never formally defaulted on its sovereign debt, and current conditions suggest that the market may be overestimating debt risks [3][4]