Core Viewpoint - Investors are reassessing whether the economic environment that supported nearly 25% annual gains in U.S. stocks over the past two years has significantly deteriorated [1][5]. Group 1: Economic Concerns - Wall Street is increasingly worried about signs of economic slowdown, with major stock indices experiencing declines due to escalating trade tensions and the imposition of tariffs [2][3]. - The Nasdaq Composite, heavily weighted with technology stocks, has dropped 7.5% since mid-February, while small-cap stocks and bank shares have also been severely impacted [4][12]. - The Conference Board's consumer confidence index saw its largest monthly decline since 2021, indicating weakening consumer sentiment [8]. Group 2: Tariff Impact - The new tariffs imposed by Trump, including a 25% tariff on major trading partners, have led to increased uncertainty in the market, prompting investors to reevaluate their positions [3][5]. - Some businesses reported that the tariffs have resulted in higher product prices, contributing to inflationary pressures [9][10]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that the tariff policy could reduce U.S. GDP by approximately 0.2% by 2025, a lesser impact compared to other countries like Canada [11]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The S&P 500 has declined about 5% from its historical high on February 19, with small-cap Russell 2000 down 9.4% since late January [12]. - Despite the market turmoil, defensive sectors like consumer staples have shown resilience, with Procter & Gamble's stock rising 0.4% during the week [12]. - The bond market has seen a strong rebound, with the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index recording a 2.7% return year-to-date, driven by price increases and interest income [15]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts express skepticism about the sustainability of the bond market's recovery, citing persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, which may limit the potential for significant interest rate cuts [16]. - The future trajectory of bonds will depend on inflation, interest rate policies, and the evolving trade stance of the Trump administration [17].

Core Viewpoint - The market experienced significant fluctuations last week, with COMEX copper prices being influenced by tariff discussions and weak economic data from the U.S., leading to a bearish sentiment in both gold and copper markets [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - COMEX gold fell by 2.79% and silver by 4.39% last week, while COMEX copper and SHFE copper saw declines of 0.6% and 0.43% respectively [2]. - The overall market was chaotic, with copper prices initially rebounding but later retreating due to weak economic indicators from the U.S. [3][5]. Group 2: Tariff Investigation and Economic Outlook - The initiation of a tariff investigation on copper by the Trump administration sparked market interest, but subsequent weak economic data led to a strong expectation of economic slowdown, putting pressure on copper prices [3][4]. - U.S. recession fears resurfaced as economic data, including real estate and consumer confidence, showed unexpected weakness, contributing to a decline in gold prices [4][14]. Group 3: Copper Market Analysis - COMEX copper prices exhibited wide fluctuations, with a contango structure in the price curve, indicating a potential for inventory accumulation in the future [5][6]. - The copper concentrate market is experiencing high demand, but supply remains stable, with a notable seasonal decline in port inventories [8][10]. Group 4: Precious Metals Market Review - Gold and silver prices faced downward pressure, with COMEX gold trading between $2844 and $2974 per ounce, and silver between $31.3 and $33.5 per ounce [14]. - The gold-silver ratio increased, indicating a stronger performance of gold relative to silver, while gold prices showed a stronger decline compared to oil prices [16][20]. Group 5: Inventory and Positioning - COMEX gold inventory increased to 39.26 million ounces, while silver inventory rose to approximately 40.86 million ounces [23]. - Non-commercial long positions in COMEX gold decreased, with the long position ratio dropping to around 61.9%, indicating a shift in market sentiment [26].

中国的结婚对数在2000年代后半期急剧增加，2013年达到1346万对的峰值后开始减少。最大的结构性原 因是经济负担重。有专家预测，中国2025年的出生人数将比上年大幅减少2成左右…… 中国的结婚对数持续下降。中国民政部最近公布的2024年结婚登记数为610万对，同比减少2成。买房等 经济负担使得年轻人远离婚姻，过去10年里结婚登记数下降到一半以下。有专家预测，中国2025年的出 生人数将比上年大幅减少2成左右。 中国的结婚对数在经历了高速经济增长的2000年代后半期急剧增加，2013年达到1346万对的峰值后开始 减少，但2023年由于结束严格的防疫措施以及是被认为是生育吉年龙年的前一年，结婚登记数10年来首 次增长。 2024年却大幅回落，创下中国国家统计局自1985年开始发布数据以来的最低纪录。 在中国，登记结婚的男女中，20~39岁的人占8成左右。尽管这个年龄段的人口在过去10年左右增长了1 成，但整体结婚对数却大幅减少。 大连一处公园内的相亲角（2月中旬） 在中国，公园经常成为征婚场所。每周都到这个公园为女儿征婚的曹先生（60岁）表示，"我女儿是做 护士的，快40岁了，回到家就玩手机，真让人发愁"。 ...